Conor Essenburg — OGILVIE

Conor EssenburgOF Augusta GreenJackets

Age 19 R/L 6'2" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION236 act + 157 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .281 / .335

PA157

HR4

K%38

BB%10

BABIP310

ISO135

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 42 / POW 51

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT42

scouting grade only

POWER51

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED49

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	A	ATL	—	236	206	35	7	1	5	28	118	1	4	2	170	272	286	559	117	357	50	12	258	56	-12	+0	+0	-1	+7	-0.7
YTD	19	A	ATL	—	236	190	47	10	2	7	44	83	1	4	2	247	391	432	823	184	396	35	19	370	142	+11	+0	+0	-1	+7	1.7
ROS	19	A	ATL	0%	157	140	28	5	1	4	15	60	1	3	1	200	281	335	616	135	303	38	10	273	67	-6	+0	-0	-1	+4	-0.2
ROS	19	MLB	ATL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		303	—	—	268	63	—	—	-0	-0	—	—
FULL	19	A	ATL	—	236	207	35	7	1	5	28	118	1	4	2	169	272	285	557	116	353	50	12	258	56	-12	+0	+0	-1	+7	-0.7
TOT	19	A	ATL	—	393	346	63	12	2	9	43	178	2	7	3	182	276	306	582	124	335	45	11	264	60	-18	+0	-0	-2	+11	-0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	ATL	34%	529	468	95	17	3	14	52	192	4	9	3	203	288	342	630	139	306	36	10	285	76	-14	+1	-0	-3	+15	-0.2
2028	21	MLB	ATL	48%	571	505	105	19	3	16	56	200	5	10	3	208	293	352	646	145	306	35	10	292	82	-12	+1	-0	-3	+16	0.1
2029	22	MLB	ATL	54%	598	528	113	21	4	17	59	204	6	11	3	214	300	366	666	152	306	34	10	297	86	-10	+1	-0	-4	+17	0.4
2030	23	MLB	ATL	57%	615	544	117	21	4	18	60	207	6	11	4	215	300	368	668	153	306	34	10	300	88	-8	+1	-0	-4	+17	0.6
2031	24	MLB	ATL	57%	627	554	121	22	4	19	62	210	6	12	4	218	304	375	679	157	307	33	10	302	89	-7	+1	-0	-4	+18	0.7
2027	20	MLB	ATL	34%	182	161	33	6	1	5	18	66	1	3	1	205	289	348	637	143	306	36	10	279	72	-6	+0	-0	-1	+5	-0.2
2028	21	MLB	ATL	48%	277	246	52	9	2	8	27	97	2	5	2	211	295	362	656	150	306	35	10	286	77	-7	+0	-0	-2	+8	-0.1
2029	22	MLB	ATL	54%	324	286	61	11	2	9	32	111	3	6	2	213	299	360	659	147	306	34	10	290	80	-7	+0	-0	-2	+9	0.0
2030	23	MLB	ATL	57%	348	308	66	12	2	10	34	117	3	6	2	214	299	364	662	149	306	34	10	293	83	-7	+0	-0	-2	+10	0.1
2031	24	MLB	ATL	57%	354	313	68	12	2	11	35	119	3	7	2	217	302	374	676	157	307	34	10	295	84	-6	+1	-0	-2	+10	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1485	1315	280	50	9	43	146	510	12	27	9	213	298	363	660	150	308	34	10	290	80	-33	+2	-1	-9	+42	0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	123	22	4	19	64	223	5	12	4	214	298	365	663	151	308	34	10	290	80	-15	+1	-0	-4	+18	0.0
Career	—			—	3097	2739	579	105	19	88	304	1073	28	56	18	211	297	360	657	149	308	35	10	295	84	-57	+4	-2	-19	+88	1.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	121	22	4	18	64	225	6	12	4	210	296	357	653	146	307	35	10	295	84	-12	+1	-0	-4	+18	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#4John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,805	50	32	213	293	360	-11	+0	0.8	1.0
	/162	664	19	12	213	293	360	-4.0	+0.0	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Conor Essenburg (OGILVIE)	19	25→42	37→51	51→49	50	182/276/306	124	335	9	7	45%	11%	60	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Esmerlyn Valdez 2023 · A	19	41→43	45→55	44→40	43	204/283/326	122	290	12	5	32%	8%	71	-0.3	195/273/328	133	307	15	4	39%	8%	67	-0.5	202/290/390	188	286	26	2	37%	9%	87	+0.6
✕Noelvi Marte 2021 · A	19	44→53	44→50	50→55	42	218/268/339	121	285	11	12	27%	6%	66	-0.6	230/295/375	145	298	17	16	27%	8%	88	+0.9	233/300/377	144	296	17	19	26%	8%	87	+0.7
✕Max Muncy 2023 · A	20	38→45	48→55	50	41	195/268/337	143	297	17	12	38%	8%	67	-0.5	211/276/338	127	323	13	9	36%	7%	70	-0.3	226/295/388	162	313	20	6	32%	6%	90	+0.5
✕Kevin Padlo 2016 · A	20	38→40	45→55	50	46	193/270/323	130	263	12	8	30%	9%	64	-0.8	183/268/311	128	268	12	8	34%	10%	60	-1.0	195/265/371	176	262	22	12	34%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Alexander Canario 2019 · A	19	41→34	42→60	47→50	44	201/268/307	106	272	10	12	29%	7%	59	-1.1	209/264/358	149	293	18	11	34%	6%	70	-0.3	205/276/414	209	281	28	13	37%	8%	87	+0.5
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	38→43	42→55	53→50	44	188/268/290	102	278	10	11	34%	8%	55	-1.4	201/284/321	120	321	11	16	37%	9%	69	-0.4	229/308/399	169	310	21	18	31%	9%	95	+0.9
✕Brandon Snyder 2006 · A	19	43→53	49→55	49→45	46	219/288/362	143	286	17	9	29%	8%	82	+0.5	216/263/333	117	309	12	3	32%	6%	63	-0.9	247/293/376	129	323	12	2	26%	5%	85	+0.6
✕Bryan Ramos 2022 · A	20	39→43	45→50	49→50	40	199/265/323	124	270	13	8	30%	6%	63	-0.9	211/270/351	140	268	18	5	28%	6%	72	-0.2	205/264/342	137	255	19	5	27%	6%	63	-0.6
✕Edwin Sanchez 2023 · A	18	41	44→45	43→50	46	200/288/314	114	285	12	6	32%	9%	70	-0.3	198/309/305	107	277	9	9	29%	11%	78	+0.2	174/315/284	109	237	10	11	27%	13%	75	+0.0
✕Ravel Santana 2010 · A	18	39	42→50	48→55	44	192/269/294	102	269	10	9	31%	8%	56	-1.3	219/288/360	141	283	16	15	27%	8%	81	+0.4	220/291/383	163	271	20	20	26%	8%	85	+0.3
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2012 · A	19	41	42→45	47→50	43	203/277/306	103	268	9	7	27%	6%	63	-0.9	224/283/326	102	290	5	11	24%	5%	69	-0.4	226/280/337	111	291	6	11	23%	4%	69	-0.2
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2009 · A	20	39	43→45	42→50	48	193/294/300	106	278	11	10	32%	10%	69	-0.4	183/263/286	103	286	10	6	37%	8%	52	-1.6	153/236/254	101	237	11	2	38%	9%	32	-0.9
●Gabriel Gonzalez 2022 · A	18	43→53	46→50	52→45	43	216/277/348	132	271	12	10	25%	6%	73	-0.1	235/292/359	124	285	14	8	22%	5%	82	+0.5	253/307/382	129	303	14	6	21%	5%	91	+0.9
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	41→47	41→55	48→50	48	200/282/301	101	267	9	14	27%	9%	64	-0.8	211/283/328	117	302	11	8	32%	8%	71	-0.3	225/292/378	153	293	18	4	28%	6%	84	+0.6
✕Ryan Vilade 2018 · A	19	47→51	44→50	45→50	48	226/304/342	117	319	12	8	31%	10%	83	+0.6	221/283/308	87	294	6	12	25%	7%	64	-0.8	227/289/416	189	269	24	16	25%	7%	94	+0.8
✕Yunior Garcia 2019 · A	18	37→47	43→45	52→30	40	187/247/297	110	260	10	10	31%	6%	47	-1.9	196/245/301	105	305	10	7	37%	5%	46	-2.0	224/273/340	115	327	12	2	33%	5%	65	-0.3
✕George Feliz 2022 · A	19	43	43→50	54→45	40	209/265/321	112	301	11	10	33%	6%	60	-1.0	173/235/266	93	312	9	13	44%	6%	33	-2.9	173/237/300	127	283	16	9	43%	6%	41	-0.8
✕Brady House 2022 · A	19	45→51	47→50	49→45	42	226/280/358	132	303	15	6	30%	7%	76	+0.1	227/277/345	118	349	13	6	37%	5%	72	-0.2	233/269/372	139	319	17	6	32%	4%	72	-0.1
✕Jhonkensy Noel 2021 · A	20	41→40	44→55	47→45	41	205/267/321	116	274	12	7	29%	6%	62	-0.9	215/265/384	169	280	22	5	31%	5%	78	+0.2	194/257/378	183	244	25	1	32%	6%	70	-0.3
✕Jesus Vasquez 2011 · A	19	40	43→55	47→55	38	200/249/313	113	263	10	11	28%	4%	52	-1.6	215/279/346	131	293	14	14	30%	6%	74	-0.1	221/297/387	166	294	19	20	30%	8%	97	+0.7