Conor Essenburg

OF Augusta GreenJackets

Age 20 R/L 6'2" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP40OGV rank#289ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	19	A+/A/ROKATL	435	.265/.421/.493	17	11	93	—	.205/.323/.372
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBATL	545	.220/.323/.379	16	10	100	0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	21	MLBATL	165	.224/.327/.390	5	3	104	0.4
2029PROJ61% MLB	22	MLBATL	262	.228/.330/.398	9	5	107	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$4M2034Arb-2$7M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

BB%95

Chase%93

wRC+81

wOBA73

Speed61

ISO52

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 11, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 86%

CompsLuke Adams (age 20) · Andy Pages (age 20) · Sal Stewart (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†100

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .321 / .375

PA210

HR6

K%28

BB%12

ISO159

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$40M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$7M
2033	Arb-1	$4M	+1.3	$7M	+$4M
2034	Arb-2	$7M	+1.2	$6M	+$2M
2035	Arb-3	$9M	+1.0	$4M	+$0.3M
Totals		$24M		$33M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	19	A+	Rome Emperors	—	136	102	24	7	0	3	28	32	4	5	0	235	418	392	810	157	304	24	21	370	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	279	220	63	13	3	14	55	88	1	6	2	286	431	564	995	277	405	32	20	429	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	FCL Braves	—	20	17	3	0	0	0	3	7	0	0	1	176	300	176	476		300	35	15	240	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	19	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	—	136	112	22	6	0	3	18	42	4	5	0	196	328	330	659	134	256	31	13	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	279	236	51	10	3	10	39	120	1	6	2	216	330	411	741	195	365	43	14	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	20	18	2	0	0	0	2	10	0	0	1	111	200	111	311		245	50	10	151	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	435	367	75	16	3	13	58	172	5	11	3	204	321	371	692	166	332	40	13	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A RAW	3 teams	—	435	339	90	20	3	17	86	127	5	11	3	265	421	493	914	227	365	29	20	402	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	435	369	75	16	3	13	58	172	5	11	3	203	321	369	689	165	325	40	13	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	435	369	75	16	3	13	58	172	5	11	3	203	321	369	689	165	325	40	13	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	ATL	0%	545	468	103	20	3	16	66	153	6	10	2	220	323	379	702	159	285	28	12	316	100	+0	+1	-1	-3	+12	0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	ATL	43%	383	330	74	14	2	12	46	105	4	7	2	224	327	390	718	166	286	27	12	322	104	+2	+1	-0	-2	+8	0.8
2029	22	MLB MLE	ATL	61%	430	370	84	16	2	14	52	115	5	8	2	228	330	398	728	170	287	27	12	326	107	+3	+1	-0	-3	+9	1.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	ATL	68%	477	412	95	18	3	16	57	126	5	9	2	230	331	403	735	173	288	26	12	328	108	+5	+1	+0	-3	+10	1.4
2031	24	MLB MLE	ATL	70%	531	458	107	20	3	18	62	138	6	10	2	233	332	407	739	174	289	26	12	330	110	+6	+1	+0	-3	+12	1.6
2032	25	MLB MLE	ATL	70%	587	507	118	22	3	20	68	152	7	11	3	234	332	408	740	174	289	26	12	330	110	+7	+1	+0	-4	+13	1.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	ATL	71%	597	515	120	23	3	20	70	154	7	11	3	233	332	408	740	174	289	26	12	330	110	+7	+1	+0	-4	+13	1.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	ATL	69%	594	513	119	22	3	20	69	154	7	11	3	232	331	405	736	173	288	26	12	329	109	+6	+1	+0	-4	+13	1.7
2035	28	MLB MLE	ATL	69%	585	506	116	22	3	19	68	153	6	10	3	230	329	400	729	170	287	26	12	326	107	+5	+1	-0	-4	+13	1.5
2036	29	MLB MLE	ATL	67%	566	489	112	21	3	18	66	150	6	8	2	228	326	393	719	166	286	27	12	322	104	+3	+1	-1	-3	+12	1.2
2037	30	MLB MLE	ATL	72%	552	477	106	20	2	17	64	148	6	8	3	224	322	385	707	161	283	27	12	318	101	+1	+0	-2	-3	+12	0.8
2038	31	MLB MLE	ATL	75%	534	463	102	19	2	16	61	145	5	6	3	220	318	375	692	155	280	27	11	312	97	-2	+0	-2	-3	+12	0.4
2039	32	MLB MLE	ATL	77%	511	443	95	17	2	15	58	141	5	5	6	214	311	361	673	147	276	28	11	304	92	-5	-1	-3	-3	+11	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	ATL	43%	165	142	32	6	1	5	20	45	2	3	1	224	327	390	718	166	286	27	12	322	104	+1	+0	-0	-1	+4	0.4
2029	22	MLB CTX	ATL	61%	262	226	52	10	1	9	31	70	3	5	1	228	330	398	728	170	287	27	12	326	107	+2	+1	-0	-2	+6	0.7
2030	23	MLB CTX	ATL	68%	325	279	65	12	2	11	39	86	4	6	1	230	331	403	735	173	288	26	12	328	108	+3	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.9
2031	24	MLB CTX	ATL	70%	369	319	75	14	2	13	43	96	4	7	2	233	332	407	739	174	289	26	12	330	110	+4	+1	+0	-2	+8	1.1
2032	25	MLB CTX	ATL	70%	412	356	83	16	2	14	48	106	5	8	2	234	332	408	740	174	289	26	12	330	110	+5	+1	+0	-2	+9	1.3
2033	26	MLB CTX	ATL	71%	421	364	84	16	2	14	49	109	5	8	2	233	332	408	740	174	289	26	12	330	110	+5	+1	+0	-3	+9	1.3
2034	27	MLB CTX	ATL	69%	412	356	83	16	2	14	48	107	5	7	2	232	331	405	736	173	288	26	12	329	109	+4	+1	+0	-2	+9	1.2
2035	28	MLB CTX	ATL	69%	402	348	80	15	2	13	47	105	4	7	2	230	329	400	729	170	287	26	12	326	107	+3	+1	-0	-2	+9	1.0
2036	29	MLB CTX	ATL	67%	378	327	74	14	2	12	44	100	4	6	2	228	326	393	719	166	286	26	12	322	104	+2	+0	-1	-2	+8	0.8
2037	30	MLB CTX	ATL	72%	395	342	76	14	2	12	46	106	4	5	2	224	322	385	707	161	283	27	12	318	101	+1	+0	-1	-2	+9	0.6
2038	31	MLB CTX	ATL	75%	400	347	76	14	2	12	46	109	4	5	3	220	318	375	692	155	280	27	12	312	97	-1	-0	-2	-2	+9	0.3
2039	32	MLB CTX	ATL	77%	394	342	72	13	1	11	45	109	4	4	5	214	311	361	673	147	276	28	11	304	92	-4	-1	-2	-2	+9	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4335	3748	852	160	21	140	506	1148	48	71	25	227	327	393	720	166	287	26	12	323	104	+25	+4	-5	-26	+94	9.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	562	128	24	3	21	76	172	7	11	4	228	327	393	720	165	288	26	12	323	104	+4	+1	-1	-4	+14	1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	6992	6031	1363	258	35	224	824	1912	76	119	38	226	327	392	718	166	290	27	12	322	104	+37	+8	-8	-39	+142	14.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	561	127	24	3	21	77	178	7	11	4	226	328	392	720	166	290	27	12	322	104	+4	+1	-1	-4	+14	1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAugusta GreenJackets · 279 PAwOBA .423 → .325 (−97)K% 31.5% → 42.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.54%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	42.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.71%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.030	14.01%
HBP% /PA	0.36%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.29%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.999	×1.030	23.66%
Doubles /BIP	9.85%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.999	×1.030	8.41%
Triples /BIP	2.27%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.999	×1.030	2.13%
Home runs /BIP	10.61%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.030	8.74%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .423 → .325; ISO .277 → .211; BABIP .405 → .365. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Rome Emperors · 136 PAwOBA .368 → .288 (−80)K% 23.5% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.53%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	30.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.59%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×1.042	12.87%
HBP% /PA	2.94%	—	×0.770	—	×1.042	2.36%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.870	×0.962	×1.042	17.44%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	×0.962	×1.042	7.82%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.962	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.29%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.042	3.93%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .368 → .288; ISO .157 → .141; BABIP .304 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Braves · 20 PAwOBA .235 → .151 (−85)K% 35.0% → 50.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.00%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	50.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.00%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.995	9.25%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.995	24.48%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .235 → .151; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .300 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Taylorlast yr '25 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,909 PA	5.9	3,909	110	91	248	327	419	-9	+4	15.9	16.4
/162	664	19	15	-1.6	+0.6	2.7	pk7: 17
#2Brad Wilkersonlast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	122	53	247	350	440	-35	-8	15.8	16.3
/162	664	22	9	-6.2	-1.4	2.8	pk7: 17
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.8	4,546	147	74	228	324	396	-27	+0	12.8	11.0
/162	664	22	11	-4.0	+0.0	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	7.5	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
/162	664	24	4	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#4Michael Tucker'95-'06 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,686 PA	7.1	4,686	125	114	246*	326*	410*	-44	+9	9.4	9.1
/162	664	18	16	-6.3	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 9
#5Leroy Stanton'70-'78 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,883 PA	4.3	2,883	77	36	245*	314*	430*	-33	-1	6.5	7.8
/162	664	18	8	-7.7	-0.2	1.5	pk7: 9
#6Ron Swoboda'65-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,924 PA	4.4	2,924	73	20	243*	329*	417*	-30	-1	6.8	7.3
/162	664	17	5	-6.7	-0.3	1.5	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Conor Essenburg (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	218/321/375	158	285	6	4	28%	12%	100	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luke Adams 2024 · A	20	42→39	44→50	53→55	51	201/318/323	122	288	11	21	31%	11%	88	+0.4	207/347/351	144	268	15	19	27%	12%	106	+1.8	200/355/358	159	246	17	19	24%	12%	108	+1.1
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→60	46→50	46	215/300/346	131	277	14	9	26%	8%	85	+0.2	217/306/408	191	287	24	6	32%	9%	102	+1.5	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Sal Stewart 2024 · A	20	49→53	43→55	48→50	55	236/321/346	110	286	11	10	21%	11%	92	+0.7	249/321/397	148	298	16	12	21%	9%	104	+1.6	255/323/425	170	297	21	13	21%	8%	109	+1.8
✕Noelvi Marte 2022 · A	20	45→55	48→50	51→55	44	224/289/369	144	298	16	14	29%	8%	86	+0.3	237/299/368	131	306	15	18	26%	7%	88	+0.5	247/296/385	137	310	14	21	24%	5%	91	+0.4
●Coby Mayo 2022 · A	20	49→48	49→60	55→45	47	243/314/397	154	308	17	13	26%	8%	101	+1.4	228/301/402	174	307	20	6	31%	8%	98	+1.2	225/308/413	188	297	21	4	30%	9%	101	+1.2
●Heriberto Hernández 2021 · A	21	45→48	49→60	46→50	47	220/300/377	156	305	15	6	31%	9%	92	+0.7	206/285/353	147	323	17	6	38%	9%	81	-0.1	222/305/421	199	281	26	11	30%	10%	104	+1.3
✕Hao-Yu Lee 2023 · A	20	49→51	44→50	48→55	46	237/306/359	122	312	12	12	27%	8%	89	+0.5	247/312/378	131	315	13	16	24%	7%	96	+1.0	253/317/409	156	313	15	15	23%	7%	103	+1.2
✕Oliver Carrillo 2023 · A	21	42→28	46→45	52→45	49	210/293/339	129	282	13	7	29%	10%	80	-0.1	187/296/309	122	278	13	4	34%	12%	76	-0.4	158/271/272	114	242	14	3	37%	11%	58	-0.8
✕Carter Kieboom 2018 · A	20	46→55	48→50	43→45	42	231/293/376	145	306	15	5	29%	7%	88	+0.5	241/311/374	133	318	15	6	27%	8%	95	+0.9	239/318/366	128	315	14	5	27%	9%	93	+0.6
●Junior Caminero 2023 · A	20	46→55	48→65	53→45	45	233/290/368	135	275	17	10	22%	6%	86	+0.3	260/306/451	191	302	26	6	23%	6%	111	+2.1	256/314/491	234	268	35	4	20%	7%	124	+3.1
✕Xavier Isaac 2024 · A	20	45→44	51→55	55→50	48	228/303/392	164	299	18	9	29%	9%	96	+1.0	216/302/390	174	327	21	12	37%	10%	96	+1.0	205/305/390	184	309	24	14	38%	12%	94	+0.6
●Dilson Herrera 2014 · A	20	44→54	45→55	49→50	41	220/273/347	128	293	12	11	29%	6%	74	-0.5	259/309/398	139	326	14	13	24%	6%	99	+1.3	267/319/412	145	327	15	13	22%	6%	104	+1.4
●Brett Lawrie 2010 · AA	20	47→57	46→55	47→55	44	234/286/363	129	291	13	12	24%	6%	82	+0.0	262/312/422	160	320	13	18	21%	6%	105	+1.7	272/324/442	170	325	14	20	20%	6%	113	+2.1
✕Harry Ford 2023 · A	20	48→53	46→45	53→55	51	224/330/360	136	328	13	14	32%	11%	99	+1.3	225/334/351	126	300	12	18	26%	12%	99	+1.3	226/338/346	120	294	12	19	24%	12%	96	+0.9
✕Marco Luciano 2021 · A	19	46→51	50	46→45	45	229/304/385	155	317	17	10	32%	8%	95	+1.0	213/279/361	148	307	18	5	35%	8%	80	-0.1	219/303/364	145	307	18	7	32%	10%	87	+0.3
✕Aaron Luna 2009 · A	22	42→46	51→50	51→45	45	211/318/370	159	292	18	7	32%	9%	99	+1.2	219/326/372	153	274	16	7	25%	8%	101	+1.4	219/329/369	150	272	17	7	24%	9%	99	+0.8
●Jo Adell 2019 · AA	20	47	52→65	54→50	37	238/286/414	176	325	19	12	32%	5%	95	+0.9	228/279/388	160	328	18	10	34%	6%	86	+0.3	228/290/425	197	264	28	9	26%	6%	101	+1.3
●Jackson Chourio 2023 · AA	19	43→53	49→60	51→55	39	217/269/368	151	298	16	12	32%	6%	78	-0.3	255/299/422	167	316	18	23	24%	6%	101	+1.4	275/322/461	186	325	22	23	22%	6%	120	+2.7
●Sean Rodríguez 2006 · A	21	44→51	46→60	49→50	53	217/301/350	133	262	13	15	22%	10%	86	+0.3	235/307/404	169	301	19	11	27%	8%	101	+1.4	244/318/452	208	301	26	12	27%	7%	113	+1.7
●Thomas Saggese 2022 · A	20	44→54	47→55	51→50	43	210/288/352	142	333	15	12	39%	9%	81	-0.1	238/289/390	152	322	16	10	30%	6%	91	+0.6	242/297/376	134	324	14	8	29%	6%	88	+0.4

Conor Essenburg

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps