Thomas Saggese
LF Memphis Redbirds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 610 | .269/.344/.457 | 22 | 12 | 87 | — | .213/.266/.348 |
| 2024 | 22 | MLBSTL | 52 | .204/.250/.306 | 1 | 0 | 58 | 0.1 | |
| 2025 | 23 | AAASTL | 189 | .317/.404/.445 | 5 | 5 | 101 | — | .271/.340/.371 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLBSTL | 295 | .258/.301/.342 | 2 | 3 | 80 | 0.2 | |
| 2026 | 24 | AAASTL | 249 | .258/.347/.446 | 10 | 9 | 79 | — | .218/.289/.350 |
| 2026 | 24 | MLBSTL | 180 | .235/.299/.352 | 4 | 4 | 85 | -0.3 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 25 | MLBSTL | 107 | .235/.298/.353 | 2 | 2 | 85 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ51% MLB | 26 | MLBSTL | 226 | .235/.298/.353 | 5 | 5 | 85 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ53% MLB | 27 | MLBSTL | 230 | .233/.296/.350 | 5 | 5 | 84 | -0.1 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 288 | 242 | 62 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 42 | 85 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 256 | 373 | 463 | 836 | 207 | 351 | 30 | 15 | 371 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 22 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 381 | 409 | 857 | 1.266 | 476 | 412 | 14 | 5 | 530 | 208 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 419 | 380 | 117 | 22 | 2 | 14 | 29 | 94 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 308 | 363 | 487 | 850 | 179 | 372 | 22 | 7 | 371 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 63 | 58 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 270 | 345 | 615 | 138 | 256 | 22 | 5 | 278 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 567 | 497 | 158 | 29 | 6 | 25 | 49 | 130 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 318 | 391 | 551 | 943 | 233 | 379 | 23 | 9 | 405 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 52 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 250 | 306 | 556 | 102 | 265 | 27 | 4 | 252 | 58 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 528 | 479 | 121 | 23 | 3 | 20 | 31 | 122 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 253 | 315 | 438 | 754 | 186 | 296 | 23 | 6 | 332 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 82 | 64 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 391 | 524 | 594 | 1.118 | 203 | 489 | 18 | 20 | 491 | 218 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 295 | 275 | 71 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 83 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 258 | 301 | 342 | 643 | 84 | 359 | 28 | 5 | 288 | 80 | -7 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 189 | 164 | 52 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 45 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 317 | 404 | 445 | 849 | 128 | 409 | 24 | 12 | 381 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 180 | 162 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 49 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 235 | 299 | 352 | 651 | 117 | 304 | 27 | 7 | 290 | 85 | -3 | +0 | +1 | -5 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 249 | 213 | 55 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 26 | 56 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 258 | 347 | 446 | 793 | 188 | 296 | 22 | 10 | 344 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 527 | 486 | 119 | 24 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 146 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 245 | 296 | 342 | 637 | 97 | 331 | 28 | 6 | 285 | 79 | -13 | +1 | +2 | -1 | +11 | 0.0 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 288 | 255 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 114 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 192 | 282 | 341 | 623 | 149 | 303 | 40 | 10 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 22 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 381 | 409 | 857 | 1.266 | 476 | 392 | 18 | 5 | 476 | 208 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 419 | 391 | 96 | 18 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 122 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 246 | 286 | 386 | 672 | 141 | 315 | 29 | 4 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 63 | 59 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 186 | 238 | 305 | 543 | 119 | 241 | 27 | 3 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 567 | 511 | 139 | 24 | 6 | 19 | 35 | 160 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 272 | 332 | 454 | 786 | 182 | 342 | 28 | 6 | 338 | 115 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 52 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 250 | 306 | 556 | 102 | 265 | 27 | 4 | 254 | 58 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 528 | 488 | 104 | 20 | 2 | 14 | 22 | 154 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 213 | 266 | 348 | 614 | 135 | 273 | 29 | 4 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 295 | 275 | 70 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 83 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 255 | 298 | 335 | 632 | 80 | 359 | 28 | 5 | 287 | 80 | -7 | +1 | +1 | +2 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 189 | 170 | 46 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 57 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 271 | 340 | 371 | 711 | 100 | 380 | 30 | 9 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | MLB MLE | St. Louis Cardinals | — | 180 | 162 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 49 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 235 | 299 | 352 | 651 | 117 | 304 | 27 | 7 | 293 | 85 | -3 | +0 | +1 | -5 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 249 | 220 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 67 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 218 | 289 | 350 | 639 | 132 | 263 | 27 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 288 | 255 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 114 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 192 | 282 | 341 | 623 | 149 | 306 | 40 | 10 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A RAW | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 288 | 242 | 62 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 42 | 85 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 256 | 373 | 463 | 836 | 207 | 351 | 30 | 15 | 371 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 441 | 413 | 104 | 21 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 126 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 252 | 290 | 409 | 699 | 157 | 329 | 29 | 4 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 441 | 401 | 125 | 25 | 4 | 15 | 30 | 97 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 312 | 366 | 506 | 872 | 195 | 374 | 22 | 7 | 379 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 630 | 570 | 150 | 28 | 6 | 20 | 37 | 177 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 263 | 323 | 439 | 761 | 175 | 340 | 28 | 6 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 630 | 555 | 170 | 34 | 6 | 26 | 52 | 144 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 306 | 379 | 530 | 909 | 223 | 365 | 23 | 8 | 393 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 662 | 613 | 130 | 25 | 3 | 17 | 28 | 191 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 212 | 265 | 346 | 611 | 134 | 276 | 29 | 4 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 662 | 592 | 156 | 32 | 3 | 23 | 49 | 151 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 264 | 336 | 444 | 781 | 181 | 315 | 23 | 7 | 345 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 484 | 445 | 116 | 21 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 140 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 261 | 315 | 348 | 663 | 88 | 364 | 29 | 7 | 299 | 88 | -7 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +10 | 0.6 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 484 | 439 | 123 | 23 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 128 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 280 | 342 | 380 | 722 | 100 | 378 | 26 | 8 | 324 | 88 | -7 | +0 | +1 | +2 | +10 | 0.6 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 429 | 382 | 87 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 116 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 228 | 296 | 361 | 657 | 134 | 286 | 27 | 7 | 289 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 429 | 375 | 93 | 15 | 1 | 14 | 39 | 105 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 248 | 327 | 405 | 732 | 157 | 299 | 24 | 9 | 321 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 288 | 254 | 49 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 114 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 193 | 282 | 343 | 625 | 150 | 303 | 40 | 10 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 441 | 416 | 104 | 21 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 126 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 250 | 290 | 406 | 696 | 156 | 319 | 29 | 4 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 630 | 575 | 150 | 28 | 6 | 20 | 37 | 177 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 261 | 323 | 435 | 757 | 174 | 332 | 28 | 6 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 662 | 613 | 130 | 25 | 3 | 17 | 28 | 191 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 212 | 265 | 346 | 611 | 134 | 272 | 29 | 4 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 484 | 446 | 116 | 21 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 140 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 260 | 315 | 348 | 662 | 87 | 367 | 29 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 429 | 389 | 87 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 116 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 224 | 296 | 355 | 651 | 131 | 280 | 27 | 7 | 289 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 662 | 613 | 130 | 25 | 3 | 17 | 28 | 191 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 212 | 265 | 346 | 611 | 134 | 272 | 29 | 4 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 484 | 446 | 116 | 21 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 140 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 260 | 315 | 348 | 662 | 87 | 367 | 29 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 429 | 389 | 87 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 116 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 224 | 296 | 355 | 651 | 131 | 280 | 27 | 7 | 289 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | STL | 45% | 516 | 469 | 111 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 36 | 136 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 235 | 297 | 357 | 654 | 122 | 302 | 26 | 7 | 294 | 85 | -9 | +1 | +1 | -6 | +11 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | STL | 45% | 107 | 98 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 235 | 298 | 353 | 651 | 119 | 304 | 26 | 7 | 292 | 85 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +2 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | STL | 51% | 443 | 404 | 94 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 117 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 234 | 297 | 356 | 654 | 122 | 302 | 26 | 7 | 293 | 85 | -8 | +1 | +1 | -5 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | STL | 53% | 437 | 398 | 93 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 116 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 233 | 296 | 354 | 650 | 120 | 301 | 27 | 7 | 292 | 84 | -8 | +1 | +1 | -5 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | STL | 53% | 427 | 389 | 89 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 114 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 231 | 294 | 349 | 643 | 118 | 300 | 27 | 7 | 289 | 82 | -9 | +1 | +1 | -5 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | STL | 53% | 412 | 376 | 87 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 112 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 229 | 291 | 343 | 634 | 114 | 299 | 27 | 7 | 285 | 79 | -10 | +1 | -0 | -4 | +9 | -0.5 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB MLE | STL | 52% | 397 | 363 | 82 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 109 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 226 | 288 | 334 | 622 | 109 | 297 | 27 | 7 | 280 | 76 | -11 | +0 | -1 | -4 | +9 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | STL | 51% | 226 | 205 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 60 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 235 | 298 | 353 | 650 | 118 | 304 | 27 | 7 | 292 | 85 | -4 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | STL | 53% | 230 | 209 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 61 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 233 | 296 | 350 | 647 | 117 | 303 | 27 | 7 | 291 | 84 | -4 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | STL | 53% | 228 | 208 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 61 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 232 | 294 | 346 | 640 | 114 | 302 | 27 | 7 | 288 | 82 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | STL | 53% | 217 | 198 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 59 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 229 | 292 | 340 | 631 | 110 | 301 | 27 | 7 | 284 | 79 | -5 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB CTX | STL | 52% | 207 | 189 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 57 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 226 | 288 | 332 | 619 | 106 | 298 | 28 | 7 | 279 | 76 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +4 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1635 | 1495 | 354 | 66 | 4 | 30 | 108 | 444 | 16 | 26 | 7 | 237 | 295 | 346 | 642 | 110 | 314 | 27 | 7 | 286 | 83 | -38 | +2 | +3 | -12 | +35 | -1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 594 | 141 | 26 | 2 | 12 | 43 | 177 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 237 | 295 | 348 | 644 | 111 | 315 | 27 | 7 | 286 | 83 | -15 | +1 | +1 | -5 | +14 | -0.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5288 | 4824 | 1132 | 203 | 22 | 126 | 342 | 1495 | 69 | 107 | 32 | 235 | 295 | 364 | 659 | 130 | 310 | 28 | 6 | 291 | 83 | -65 | +5 | +4 | -26 | +62 | -1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 139 | 25 | 3 | 15 | 42 | 184 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 234 | 293 | 363 | 656 | 128 | 311 | 28 | 6 | 291 | 83 | -15 | +1 | +1 | -6 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 249 PAwOBA .342 → .285 (−56)K% 22.5% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.49% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 20.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 5.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 4.67% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .342 → .285; ISO .188 → .145; BABIP .296 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 189 PAwOBA .373 → .317 (−56)K% 23.8% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.81% | ÷0.953 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.17% | ÷0.954 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 9.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.45% | ÷0.982 | ×0.930 | ×0.960 | ×1.050 | 32.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.04% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×0.960 | ×1.050 | 4.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.960 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.20% | ÷0.869 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.56% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 80, K 91, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .373 → .317; ISO .128 → .102; BABIP .409 → .380. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 528 PAwOBA .325 → .267 (−57)K% 23.1% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.11% | ÷0.953 | ×1.200 | — | — | 29.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.87% | ÷1.014 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 4.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.46% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 2.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.01% | ÷0.991 | ×0.930 | ×0.962 | ×1.050 | 19.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.44% | ÷0.920 | ×0.830 | ×0.962 | ×1.050 | 5.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.962 | ×1.050 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.60% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.03% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 84, 3B 130, K 91, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .325 → .267; ISO .186 → .138; BABIP .296 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AASpringfield Cardinals · 567 PAwOBA .400 → .338 (−62)K% 22.9% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.93% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.47% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 6.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.94% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.050 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.70% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×0.967 | ×1.050 | 25.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.90% | ÷1.031 | ×0.840 | ×0.967 | ×1.050 | 6.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.63% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.967 | ×1.050 | 1.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.81% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 5.30% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .400 → .338; ISO .233 → .188; BABIP .379 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 63 PAwOBA .270 → .233 (−37)K% 22.2% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.990 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 3.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.17% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 3.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.64% | ÷1.040 | ×0.930 | ×1.027 | ×1.050 | 13.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.36% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | ×1.027 | ×1.050 | 10.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.27% | ÷0.955 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 1.75% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 108, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 98, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .270 → .233; ISO .138 → .114; BABIP .256 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Hickory Crawdads · 419 PAwOBA .364 → .289 (−75)K% 22.4% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.43% | ÷1.007 | ×1.310 | — | — | 29.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.68% | ÷0.985 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 4.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.62% | ÷1.039 | ×0.870 | ×0.982 | ×1.042 | 23.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.939 | ×0.780 | ×0.982 | ×1.042 | 6.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷0.984 | ×0.850 | ×0.982 | ×1.042 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.90% | ÷1.123 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 4.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 97, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .364 → .289; ISO .179 → .143; BABIP .372 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 22 PAwOBA .515 → .476 (−39)K% 13.6% → 16.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.55% | ÷1.012 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 10.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.030 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 14.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 12.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.915 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 5.10% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .515 → .476; ISO .476 → .453; BABIP .412 → .392. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ADown East Wood Ducks · 288 PAwOBA .363 → .274 (−88)K% 29.5% → 39.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.51% | ÷1.017 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.58% | ÷1.050 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 10.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.29% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 19.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.92% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 7.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.91% | ÷1.069 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.045 | 1.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.37% | ÷0.996 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 5.35% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 101, 3B 114, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .363 → .274; ISO .207 → .157; BABIP .351 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .