Hudson Haskin
OF Chesapeake Baysox| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | AAA/AA/A+3 orgs | 137 | .287/.397/.443 | 3 | 8 | 91 | — | .244/.339/.361 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/A+2 orgs | 387 | .212/.353/.301 | 5 | 22 | 62 | — | .192/.301/.264 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA/AA/A+2 orgs | 168 | .193/.291/.283 | 2 | 4 | 36 | — | .187/.261/.274 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 28 | MLBBAL | 2 | .199/.284/.309 | 0 | 0 | 67 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 29 | MLBBAL | 35 | .199/.283/.308 | 1 | 1 | 67 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 109 | 91 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 275 | 389 | 385 | 774 | 110 | 342 | 17 | 9 | 353 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 254 | 217 | 60 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 60 | 13 | 17 | 5 | 276 | 377 | 415 | 792 | 138 | 362 | 24 | 9 | 357 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 466 | 387 | 102 | 23 | 3 | 15 | 43 | 101 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 264 | 372 | 455 | 827 | 191 | 313 | 22 | 9 | 361 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 95 | 82 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 268 | 368 | 463 | 832 | 195 | 422 | 36 | 6 | 372 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 22 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 333 | 364 | 381 | 745 | 48 | 467 | 27 | 0 | 339 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 20 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 333 | 579 | 417 | 996 | 83 | 444 | 20 | 20 | 450 | 143 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 335 | 277 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 43 | 91 | 13 | 22 | 6 | 213 | 345 | 300 | 645 | 87 | 299 | 27 | 13 | 305 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 52 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 404 | 308 | 712 | 103 | 350 | 35 | 21 | 345 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 60 | 51 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 196 | 293 | 275 | 568 | 78 | 257 | 27 | 8 | 259 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 89 | 76 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 211 | 318 | 316 | 634 | 105 | 283 | 25 | 11 | 292 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 19 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 158 | 167 | 325 | 56 | 222 | 47 | 5 | 152 | -54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 109 | 94 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 223 | 324 | 298 | 622 | 74 | 301 | 22 | 6 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 254 | 225 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 80 | 13 | 17 | 5 | 222 | 306 | 324 | 630 | 102 | 315 | 31 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 466 | 400 | 94 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 124 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 235 | 326 | 372 | 698 | 138 | 294 | 27 | 6 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 95 | 84 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 214 | 305 | 357 | 662 | 143 | 384 | 44 | 4 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 22 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 333 | 364 | 381 | 745 | 48 | 456 | 32 | 0 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 20 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 286 | 474 | 357 | 831 | 71 | 368 | 25 | 10 | 380 | 143 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 335 | 290 | 57 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 102 | 13 | 22 | 6 | 197 | 300 | 266 | 566 | 69 | 286 | 30 | 9 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 52 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 308 | 256 | 564 | 93 | 277 | 46 | 13 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 60 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 189 | 259 | 264 | 523 | 75 | 245 | 33 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Chesapeake Baysox | — | 89 | 79 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 203 | 284 | 304 | 588 | 101 | 280 | 29 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ MLE | Aberdeen IronBirds | — | 19 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 158 | 167 | 325 | 56 | 176 | 63 | 5 | 88 | -54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 363 | 318 | 71 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 104 | 20 | 22 | 7 | 223 | 314 | 318 | 631 | 94 | 319 | 29 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 363 | 308 | 85 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 78 | 20 | 22 | 7 | 276 | 381 | 406 | 786 | 130 | 356 | 21 | 9 | 356 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 466 | 400 | 94 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 124 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 235 | 326 | 372 | 698 | 138 | 308 | 27 | 6 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA RAW | Bowie Baysox | — | 466 | 387 | 102 | 23 | 3 | 15 | 43 | 101 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 264 | 372 | 455 | 827 | 191 | 313 | 22 | 9 | 361 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 137 | 118 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 54 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 229 | 331 | 339 | 670 | 110 | 397 | 39 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 137 | 115 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 44 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 287 | 397 | 443 | 841 | 157 | 435 | 32 | 7 | 378 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 387 | 333 | 63 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 126 | 15 | 22 | 6 | 189 | 299 | 258 | 557 | 69 | 288 | 33 | 10 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 387 | 316 | 67 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 54 | 109 | 15 | 22 | 6 | 212 | 353 | 301 | 654 | 89 | 304 | 28 | 14 | 310 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 168 | 150 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 57 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 173 | 248 | 233 | 482 | 60 | 269 | 34 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 168 | 145 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 47 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 193 | 291 | 283 | 574 | 90 | 268 | 28 | 10 | 264 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 363 | 318 | 71 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 104 | 20 | 22 | 7 | 223 | 314 | 318 | 631 | 94 | 311 | 29 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 466 | 409 | 94 | 19 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 124 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 230 | 326 | 364 | 690 | 134 | 294 | 27 | 6 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 137 | 118 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 54 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 229 | 331 | 339 | 670 | 110 | 393 | 39 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 387 | 332 | 63 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 126 | 15 | 22 | 6 | 190 | 299 | 259 | 558 | 69 | 285 | 33 | 10 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 168 | 151 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 57 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 172 | 248 | 232 | 480 | 60 | 256 | 34 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 387 | 332 | 63 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 126 | 15 | 22 | 6 | 190 | 299 | 259 | 558 | 69 | 285 | 33 | 10 | 259 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 168 | 151 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 57 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 172 | 248 | 232 | 480 | 60 | 256 | 34 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 2% | 218 | 193 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 60 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 195 | 281 | 302 | 583 | 107 | 258 | 28 | 8 | 267 | 67 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 284 | 309 | 593 | 110 | 262 | 50 | 0 | 271 | 67 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | BAL | 23% | 154 | 137 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 195 | 280 | 301 | 581 | 106 | 258 | 27 | 8 | 267 | 67 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | BAL | 23% | 35 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 283 | 308 | 591 | 109 | 262 | 29 | 9 | 270 | 67 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 35 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 286 | 323 | 608 | 129 | 250 | 29 | 9 | 270 | 73 | -1 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 576 | 112 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 56 | 186 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 194 | 288 | 326 | 614 | 132 | 251 | 29 | 9 | 270 | 73 | -26 | +4 | -6 | -4 | +14 | -1.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1790 | 1558 | 328 | 60 | 9 | 26 | 129 | 539 | 80 | 67 | 22 | 211 | 304 | 311 | 615 | 100 | 300 | 30 | 7 | 275 | 73 | -11 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +6 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 566 | 119 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 47 | 196 | 29 | 24 | 8 | 210 | 304 | 307 | 612 | 97 | 301 | 30 | 7 | 275 | 73 | -26 | +1 | -3 | -4 | +14 | -1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 89 PAwOBA .285 → .251 (−34)K% 24.7% → 28.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.72% | ÷1.044 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.24% | ÷0.987 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 7.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.25% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 1.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.37% | ÷0.957 | ×0.970 | ×1.030 | ×0.978 | 20.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.970 | ×0.860 | ×1.030 | ×0.978 | 4.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.85% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | ×0.978 | 1.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.85% | ÷1.248 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 1.13% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 91, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .285 → .251; ISO .105 → .088; BABIP .283 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 60 PAwOBA .257 → .220 (−37)K% 26.7% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.67% | ÷0.967 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.063 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.33% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 3.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.86% | ÷0.959 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 22.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 2.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.945 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 2.12% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 92, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 93, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .257 → .220; ISO .078 → .060; BABIP .257 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 19 PAwOBA .148 → .088 (−60)K% 47.4% → 61.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 47.37% | ÷1.013 | ×1.310 | — | — | 61.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.26% | ÷0.944 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.958 | 3.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.990 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 9.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.010 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 8.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.091 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.229 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 118, K 103, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .148 → .088; ISO .056 → .031; BABIP .222 → .176. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 335 PAwOBA .300 → .263 (−37)K% 27.2% → 30.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.16% | ÷1.070 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.84% | ÷0.987 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 9.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.88% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 3.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.66% | ÷0.962 | ×0.930 | ×1.004 | ×1.018 | 23.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.38% | ÷1.006 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×1.018 | 4.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.54% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×1.018 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.15% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 1.54% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 92, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 114, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .300 → .263; ISO .087 → .071; BABIP .299 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 52 PAwOBA .338 → .236 (−102)K% 34.6% → 45.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.62% | ÷0.993 | ×1.310 | — | — | 45.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.15% | ÷0.947 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.968 | 12.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.968 | 2.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.048 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 22.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.980 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 3.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.026 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 3.96% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 110, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .338 → .236; ISO .103 → .080; BABIP .350 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 95 PAwOBA .363 → .289 (−74)K% 35.8% → 43.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.79% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 43.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.32% | ÷0.948 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.37% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 7.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.08% | ÷1.019 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 25.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.42% | ÷1.015 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 8.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.08% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 2.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.995 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.54% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 96, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .363 → .289; ISO .195 → .139; BABIP .422 → .384. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABowie Baysox · 22 PAwOBA .329 → .291 (−39)K% 27.3% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.55% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 3.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 40.00% | ÷0.965 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.998 | 40.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.046 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 5.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.998 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.208 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 93, 2B 109, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .329 → .291; ISO .048 → .036; BABIP .467 → .456. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 20 PAwOBA .464 → .380 (−84)K% 20.0% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.986 | ×1.310 | — | — | 26.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.982 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 11.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 15.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 11.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.50% | ÷1.037 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 30.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷0.980 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 9.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 107, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .464 → .380; ISO .083 → .081; BABIP .444 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).