Dalton Shuffield
SS St. Paul Saints| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | AA/AMIN | 237 | .253/.370/.399 | 6 | 17 | 70 | — | .215/.302/.335 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/AA/A+MIN | 269 | .224/.300/.378 | 7 | 12 | 45 | — | .182/.240/.307 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAAMIN | 21 | .150/.190/.150 | 0 | 0 | -21 | — | .150/.190/.150 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 28 | MLBMIN | 10 | .193/.259/.306 | 0 | 0 | 59 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 29 | MLBMIN | 41 | .194/.259/.305 | 1 | 1 | 59 | -0.1 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 51 | 48 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 271 | 314 | 542 | 855 | 271 | 344 | 27 | 6 | 368 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 28 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 292 | 393 | 417 | 810 | 125 | 462 | 36 | 14 | 368 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 101 | 87 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 241 | 340 | 402 | 742 | 161 | 304 | 28 | 13 | 332 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 136 | 111 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 36 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 261 | 393 | 396 | 789 | 135 | 365 | 26 | 18 | 358 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 82 | 74 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 216 | 284 | 338 | 622 | 122 | 294 | 27 | 7 | 278 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 139 | 123 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 38 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 228 | 312 | 374 | 686 | 146 | 293 | 27 | 9 | 308 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 48 | 44 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 227 | 292 | 455 | 746 | 227 | 308 | 33 | 8 | 326 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 21 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 150 | 340 | 231 | 33 | 5 | 163 | -21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 23 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 51 | 49 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 255 | 469 | 724 | 245 | 311 | 33 | 4 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 28 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 240 | 321 | 360 | 681 | 120 | 410 | 46 | 11 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 101 | 90 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 200 | 280 | 322 | 602 | 122 | 271 | 34 | 10 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 136 | 119 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 51 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 227 | 319 | 345 | 663 | 118 | 353 | 38 | 12 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 82 | 76 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 197 | 247 | 303 | 550 | 105 | 285 | 33 | 5 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 139 | 127 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 48 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 181 | 246 | 315 | 561 | 134 | 243 | 35 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 48 | 45 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 156 | 208 | 289 | 497 | 133 | 252 | 44 | 6 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 21 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 150 | 340 | 231 | 38 | 5 | 137 | -21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 79 | 74 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 216 | 266 | 378 | 644 | 162 | 333 | 38 | 6 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 79 | 72 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 278 | 342 | 500 | 842 | 222 | 378 | 30 | 9 | 368 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 237 | 210 | 44 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 84 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 210 | 294 | 314 | 608 | 105 | 323 | 35 | 11 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 237 | 198 | 50 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 37 | 64 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 253 | 370 | 399 | 769 | 146 | 338 | 27 | 16 | 347 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 269 | 248 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 96 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 177 | 236 | 290 | 526 | 113 | 264 | 36 | 6 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 269 | 241 | 54 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 76 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 224 | 300 | 378 | 677 | 154 | 296 | 28 | 9 | 302 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 21 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 150 | 340 | 250 | 38 | 5 | 137 | -21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA RAW | St. Paul Saints | — | 21 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 150 | 340 | 231 | 33 | 5 | 163 | -21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 79 | 74 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 216 | 266 | 378 | 644 | 162 | 346 | 38 | 6 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 237 | 210 | 44 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 84 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 210 | 294 | 314 | 608 | 105 | 318 | 35 | 11 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 269 | 248 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 96 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 177 | 236 | 290 | 526 | 113 | 257 | 36 | 6 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 21 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 150 | 340 | 231 | 38 | 5 | 137 | -21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 269 | 248 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 96 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 177 | 236 | 290 | 526 | 113 | 257 | 36 | 6 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 21 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 150 | 340 | 231 | 38 | 5 | 137 | -21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIN | 10% | 200 | 182 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 55 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 193 | 258 | 305 | 564 | 112 | 249 | 28 | 7 | 255 | 59 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIN | 10% | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 193 | 259 | 306 | 564 | 112 | 250 | 30 | 10 | 255 | 59 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIN | 27% | 151 | 138 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 259 | 305 | 563 | 111 | 250 | 27 | 7 | 255 | 59 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIN | 27% | 41 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 259 | 305 | 564 | 111 | 251 | 27 | 7 | 255 | 59 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 41 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 244 | 289 | 533 | 105 | 231 | 27 | 7 | 255 | 57 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 111 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 48 | 174 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 184 | 245 | 291 | 535 | 106 | 231 | 27 | 7 | 255 | 57 | -32 | +3 | -6 | +7 | +14 | -1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 862 | 786 | 153 | 26 | 8 | 16 | 65 | 288 | 5 | 37 | 7 | 195 | 261 | 309 | 570 | 115 | 281 | 33 | 8 | 253 | 57 | -13 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 116 | 20 | 6 | 12 | 49 | 217 | 4 | 28 | 5 | 196 | 262 | 310 | 572 | 115 | 283 | 33 | 8 | 253 | 57 | -32 | +1 | -4 | +7 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 21 PAwOBA .159 → .137 (−21)K% 33.3% → 40.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.989 | ×1.200 | — | — | 40.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷1.022 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 3.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.944 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 23.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.253 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 89, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .159 → .137; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .231 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 139 PAwOBA .302 → .240 (−62)K% 27.3% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.34% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.35% | ÷0.963 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.44% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.18% | ÷1.091 | ×0.920 | ×0.987 | ×0.998 | 17.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.06% | ÷0.979 | ×0.840 | ×0.987 | ×0.998 | 5.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.126 | ×0.940 | ×0.987 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.71% | ÷0.845 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.45% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 118, 2B 96, 3B 125, K 93, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .302 → .240; ISO .146 → .125; BABIP .293 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 82 PAwOBA .271 → .236 (−34)K% 26.8% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.83% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.32% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.22% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.23% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 19.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.996 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 6.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.043 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 1.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.039 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.34% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 109, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .271 → .236; ISO .122 → .101; BABIP .294 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 48 PAwOBA .317 → .212 (−105)K% 33.3% → 43.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷0.972 | ×1.270 | — | — | 43.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 5.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.86% | ÷0.984 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 16.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.119 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 5.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.146 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 2.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.191 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 4.69% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 97, 2B 124, 3B 129, K 94, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .317 → .212; ISO .227 → .135; BABIP .308 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 136 PAwOBA .352 → .282 (−71)K% 26.5% → 37.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.47% | ÷0.969 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.050 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 11.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷0.938 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.980 | 26.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.053 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.980 | 5.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.67% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.980 | 2.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.67% | ÷0.976 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 2.14% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 88, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .352 → .282; ISO .135 → .110; BABIP .365 → .353. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAWichita Wind Surge · 101 PAwOBA .327 → .259 (−68)K% 27.7% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.72% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.87% | ÷0.962 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 9.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.42% | ÷1.011 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×1.012 | 23.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.39% | ÷0.931 | ×0.840 | ×0.996 | ×1.012 | 3.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.996 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.78% | ÷1.231 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.46% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 104, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .327 → .259; ISO .161 → .109; BABIP .304 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASt. Paul Saints · 51 PAwOBA .357 → .291 (−67)K% 27.5% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.45% | ÷0.981 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 4.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.050 | 17.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.82% | ÷1.079 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 7.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.050 | 5.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.881 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.91% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .357 → .291; ISO .271 → .213; BABIP .344 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 28 PAwOBA .359 → .273 (−85)K% 35.7% → 45.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.71% | ÷0.993 | ×1.270 | — | — | 45.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 10.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 42.86% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 38.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.912 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.011 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.948 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 6.02% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 104, 2B 82, 3B 102, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .359 → .273; ISO .125 → .093; BABIP .462 → .410. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).