TJ Hopkins — OGILVIE

TJ HopkinsCF Erie SeaWolves

Age 29 R/R 6'1" / 195 lbs AA HR +5%H +3% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.1 · 2026

wRC+†92

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .307 / .369

PA200

HR5

K%29

BB%9

MLB%2%

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2027

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$-0.4M		$-0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	292	264	62	11	7	5	19	89	4	3	0	.235	.296	.386	.683	.152	.329	30	7	.290	80	-7	+1	+0	-3	+8	-0.1
2022	25	AA	2 teams	528	483	101	20	2	18	32	187	7	8	5	.209	.268	.371	.639	.161	.292	35	6	.277	70	-18	-0	+0	-6	+15	-0.9
2023	26	AAA	2 teams	437	390	102	16	1	13	39	129	5	3	3	.262	.336	.408	.744	.146	.356	30	9	.327	109	+4	-1	-1	-5	+12	1.1
2024	27	AA	Erie SeaWolves	95	85	14	4	0	2	10	30	0	2	1	.165	.253	.282	.535	.118	.226	32	11	.245	46	-6	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	DET	200	178	41	7	1	5	18	59	2	3	1	.230	.308	.365	.673	.135	.309	30	9	.306	92	-2	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	30	MLB 9%	DET	286	255	60	11	1	8	26	83	3	3	1	.235	.313	.380	.694	.145	.306	29	9	.304	91	-3	+0	-3	-3	+8	-0.1
2028	31	MLB 19%	DET	271	243	55	10	1	7	24	78	2	2	0	.226	.301	.362	.663	.136	.304	29	9	.302	89	-3	+0	-4	-3	+8	-0.2
2029	32	MLB 29%	DET	252	225	51	9	1	6	23	73	2	1	0	.227	.304	.356	.660	.129	.302	29	9	.298	87	-4	+0	-5	-3	+7	-0.4
2030	33	MLB 40%	DET	222	198	44	8	1	5	20	66	2	0	0	.222	.300	.348	.648	.126	.300	30	9	.293	83	-4	+0	-5	-2	+6	-0.6
2031	34	MLB 49%	DET	180	160	35	6	1	4	16	55	2	0	0	.219	.298	.344	.642	.125	.298	31	9	.287	78	-5	+0	-6	-2	+5	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			2763	2481	565	102	16	73	227	849	29	25	11	.228	.300	.370	.670	.142	.312	31	8	.296	85	-47	+1	-25	-30	+78	-2.3
/ 162G	—			650	584	133	24	4	17	53	200	7	6	3	.228	.300	.370	.670	.142	.313	31	8	.296	85	-11	+0	-6	-7	+18	-0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	292	257	69	14	7	5	26	71	4	3	0	.268	.345	.436	.781	.167	.348	24	9	.341	119	+6	+1	—	—	+8	1.6
2022	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	103	94	24	5	0	4	8	29	1	2	0	.255	.320	.436	.757	.181	.328	28	8	.336	115	+2	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
2022	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	425	373	97	21	2	17	40	117	6	6	5	.260	.341	.464	.805	.204	.327	28	9	.352	127	+13	-1	—	—	+12	2.5
2023	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	44	41	7	0	0	0	2	17	1	1	0	.171	.227	.171	.398	.000	.292	39	5	.192	5	-5	+0	-1	-5	+1	-0.9
2023	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	393	331	102	18	1	16	55	94	4	2	3	.308	.413	.514	.926	.205	.386	24	14	.407	170	+31	-1	—	—	+11	4.2
2024	27	AA	Erie SeaWolves	95	79	15	5	0	2	16	24	0	2	1	.190	.326	.329	.655	.139	.245	25	17	.305	92	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			44	41	7	0	0	0	2	17	1	1	0	.171	.227	.171	.398	.000	.292	39	5	.192	5	-5	+0	-1	-5	+1	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
TJ Hopkins (OGILVIE)	29	—	—	—	—	.230/.307/.369	.139	.309	5	3	29%	9%	92	+0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Pedro Severino 2022 · MLB	29	49→50	48→50	47→45	49	.247/.313/.386	.139	.305	16	4	24%	8%	98	+1.6	.237/.295/.372	.135	.302	15	8	26%	7%	86	+0.8	.222/.275/.349	.128	.281	15	11	26%	6%	68	-0.2
✕Mike Brosseau 2023 · MLB	29	46→56	51→55	52→45	46	.231/.315/.389	.158	.304	20	8	30%	9%	101	+1.8	.214/.285/.353	.139	.270	19	6	27%	7%	79	+0.3	.193/.261/.311	.118	.238	17	5	26%	6%	55	-0.7
✕Anthony Recker 2014 · MLB	30	43→48	51→50	43→45	47	.220/.295/.378	.157	.286	19	7	29%	9%	89	+0.9	.211/.280/.369	.158	.286	20	6	32%	8%	80	+0.4	.200/.280/.351	.151	.266	19	3	31%	9%	71	-0.1
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2013 · MLB	29	47→48	51→55	49→50	45	.244/.296/.406	.163	.285	20	10	22%	6%	96	+1.5	.225/.289/.388	.163	.270	18	6	23%	8%	89	+0.9	.203/.272/.360	.158	.243	17	5	24%	8%	72	-0.1
✕Michael McKenry 2014 · MLB	29	45→46	50→55	44→40	48	.231/.299/.387	.156	.280	18	4	24%	8%	92	+1.2	.243/.325/.408	.165	.299	18	6	24%	10%	109	+2.4	.231/.329/.388	.157	.295	17	5	26%	12%	101	+0.7
✕Andrew Brown 2014 · MLB	29	45→46	54→55	45→40	44	.234/.297/.416	.182	.305	22	5	30%	8%	99	+1.7	.231/.295/.407	.176	.289	21	5	27%	8%	97	+1.5	.218/.287/.392	.174	.264	23	2	27%	8%	86	+0.6
✕Brandon Larson 2005 · MLB	29	42	48→50	46→45	52	.214/.302/.352	.138	.267	16	9	26%	10%	85	+0.7	.227/.286/.383	.156	.291	20	6	28%	7%	86	+0.8	.222/.268/.379	.157	.279	21	4	29%	5%	75	-0.0
✕David Bote 2022 · MLB	29	42→48	50→55	47→45	52	.217/.306/.373	.156	.261	18	6	24%	10%	92	+1.2	.224/.293/.375	.151	.287	16	8	27%	7%	87	+0.8	.227/.294/.384	.157	.293	17	8	27%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Clint Frazier 2022 · MLB	27	44→46	51→55	46→50	51	.226/.313/.393	.166	.290	19	7	28%	10%	100	+1.7	.200/.291/.325	.125	.297	13	11	34%	10%	74	-0.1	.180/.269/.291	.112	.273	12	12	36%	9%	54	-0.9
✕Phillip Ervin 2021 · MLB	29	49→52	48→50	49→55	48	.240/.314/.388	.149	.300	14	14	24%	8%	99	+1.7	.207/.283/.336	.129	.279	15	15	29%	9%	73	-0.1	.163/.242/.272	.109	.220	15	21	32%	9%	36	-1.2
✕John Hicks 2019 · MLB	29	50→51	49→60	44→50	41	.252/.295/.397	.145	.322	17	6	27%	5%	93	+1.3	.230/.270/.397	.167	.302	22	6	31%	5%	83	+0.6	.215/.250/.403	.188	.281	26	9	34%	4%	73	-0.1
✕Valentino Pascucci 2007 · MLB	28	47→45	50→55	51→45	51	.238/.322/.393	.155	.302	18	11	26%	10%	104	+2.0	.227/.311/.415	.188	.291	24	7	30%	10%	105	+2.1	.213/.299/.386	.173	.274	23	5	30%	10%	90	+0.9
✕John Hester 2012 · MLB	28	48	45→55	43→50	43	.234/.286/.359	.125	.303	12	8	26%	6%	79	+0.3	.205/.263/.320	.115	.288	12	5	32%	7%	59	-1.1	.188/.247/.298	.110	.271	12	4	34%	7%	46	-0.9
✕Josh Fields 2011 · MLB	28	47→56	49→55	45→50	44	.234/.295/.378	.143	.309	17	8	29%	8%	89	+0.9	.251/.303/.393	.142	.332	15	11	27%	7%	95	+1.4	.250/.299/.374	.123	.348	11	11	30%	6%	87	+0.5
✕Scott Moore 2013 · MLB	29	48→51	48→55	43→50	46	.241/.307/.389	.148	.295	16	6	24%	7%	96	+1.5	.212/.279/.347	.135	.275	14	3	27%	7%	75	-0.0	.183/.253/.301	.119	.242	13	1	29%	6%	49	-1.1
✕Scott Kingery 2022 · MLB	28	42→51	48→55	52→55	43	.214/.277/.362	.149	.292	15	13	31%	7%	77	+0.1	.202/.267/.327	.125	.300	13	21	35%	8%	63	-0.8	.201/.259/.337	.136	.285	17	26	34%	7%	59	-0.8
✕Luis Torrens 2023 · MLB	27	46→49	51→55	46→30	44	.235/.294/.394	.158	.299	20	3	28%	7%	92	+1.2	.230/.285/.371	.141	.296	16	4	27%	6%	82	+0.5	.223/.277/.353	.130	.278	13	2	24%	6%	73	-0.0
✕Mike Wilson 2012 · MLB	29	45→54	52→60	48→50	45	.230/.302/.394	.164	.303	20	10	30%	8%	96	+1.5	.226/.291/.383	.157	.305	19	7	31%	8%	89	+0.9	.213/.273/.361	.148	.300	20	4	35%	6%	72	-0.1
✕Mikie Mahtook 2019 · MLB	29	45→55	50→55	52→50	42	.231/.287/.388	.157	.291	17	10	27%	6%	88	+0.9	.220/.283/.402	.182	.273	24	12	29%	7%	90	+1.0	.205/.268/.396	.192	.245	28	13	30%	7%	80	+0.3
✕Joe Mather 2011 · MLB	29	42→45	48→60	48→50	45	.216/.274/.361	.145	.256	16	11	23%	7%	76	+0.0	.215/.266/.326	.111	.273	11	10	24%	6%	63	-0.9	.206/.260/.310	.104	.261	10	8	24%	7%	52	-0.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)