TJ Hopkins — OGILVIE

TJ HopkinsCF Erie SeaWolves

Age 29 R/R 6'1" / 195 lbs AA HR -8% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 200 proj PA

wRC+†106

AVG/OBP/SLG.253 / .325 / .394

PA200

HR5

SB10

K%28

BB%9

ISO142

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Contract

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023

CONTACT—

Whiff%

1514.9%

xwOBA

100.216

POWER—

Avg EV

4488.7

Bat Spd

4470.7

EYE—

Chase%

3235.2%

SPEED—

Sprint

8728.9

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.7M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.4M
2028	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	292	263	62	9	8	5	20	85	4	3	0	236	300	388	687	152	324	29	7	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	292	257	69	14	7	5	26	71	4	3	0	268	345	436	781	167	348	24	9	341	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA	2 teams	—	528	483	100	19	2	17	32	186	7	8	5	207	266	360	627	153	290	35	6	272	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA	2 teams	—	528	467	121	26	2	21	48	146	7	8	5	259	337	458	795	199	327	28	9	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	2 teams	—	437	389	103	18	1	12	40	129	5	3	3	265	341	409	750	144	364	30	9	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	2 teams	—	437	372	109	18	1	16	57	111	5	3	3	293	394	476	870	183	377	25	13	385	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	95	86	14	4	0	2	9	30	0	2	1	163	242	279	521	116	222	32	9	243	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	95	79	15	5	0	2	16	24	0	2	1	190	326	329	655	139	245	25	17	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	DET	—	200	178	46	9	1	5	18	55	2	10	2	258	333	404	738	146	338	28	9	324	106	+1	+1	-0	-2	+6	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	DET	31%	286	257	64	12	1	7	25	78	2	12	2	249	320	385	706	136	332	27	9	321	104	+1	+2	-2	-3	+8	0.6
2028	31	MLB	DET	48%	271	243	61	12	1	7	24	74	2	10	2	251	323	395	718	144	327	27	9	318	101	+0	+1	-3	-3	+8	0.4
2029	32	MLB	DET	58%	252	226	56	11	1	6	22	69	2	8	2	248	320	385	705	137	322	27	9	312	97	-1	+1	-4	-3	+7	0.1
2030	33	MLB	DET	64%	222	199	48	9	1	5	19	62	2	5	1	241	314	372	685	131	317	28	9	306	92	-2	+1	-4	-2	+6	-0.2
2031	34	MLB	DET	59%	180	161	38	7	1	4	16	51	1	3	1	236	309	366	675	130	311	28	9	297	85	-3	+0	-5	-2	+5	-0.5
2032	35	MLB	DET	55%	131	118	26	4	0	3	11	38	1	2	0	220	292	331	623	110	305	29	8	287	78	-3	+0	-6	-1	+4	-0.6
2027	30	MLB	DET	31%	89	80	19	4	0	2	8	24	1	4	1	237	315	362	677	125	326	27	9	309	95	-1	+0	-1	-1	+3	0.1
2028	31	MLB	DET	48%	131	117	28	5	0	3	12	36	1	5	1	239	315	359	674	120	322	27	9	306	92	-1	+1	-1	-1	+4	0.0
2029	32	MLB	DET	58%	146	131	31	6	0	3	13	40	1	5	1	237	310	351	661	115	317	27	9	301	88	-2	+1	-2	-2	+4	-0.1
2030	33	MLB	DET	64%	142	128	29	5	0	3	12	40	1	3	1	227	298	336	634	109	312	28	8	294	84	-3	+0	-3	-2	+4	-0.3
2031	34	MLB	DET	59%	107	96	21	4	0	2	9	31	1	2	0	219	292	323	615	104	306	29	8	286	77	-3	+0	-3	-1	+3	-0.3
2032	35	MLB	DET	55%	72	65	13	2	0	1	6	21	1	1	0	200	278	277	555	77	300	29	8	277	70	-2	+0	-3	-1	+2	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	731	658	148	26	0	14	62	209	7	21	4	225	298	328	627	103	305	29	8	290	80	-16	+3	-13	-12	+21	-1.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	131	23	0	12	55	186	6	19	4	224	297	325	622	101	304	29	8	290	80	-14	+2	-12	-11	+18	-1.7
Career	—			—	2894	2603	618	114	17	73	236	857	28	66	19	237	308	378	686	141	322	30	8	303	90	-32	+6	-24	-31	+82	0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	139	26	4	16	53	192	6	15	4	238	307	378	685	140	323	30	8	303	90	-7	+1	-5	-7	+18	0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	292	257	69	14	7	5	26	71	4	3	0	268	345	436	781	167	348	24	9	341	119	+6	+1	—	—	+8	1.6
2022	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	103	94	24	5	0	4	8	29	1	2	0	255	320	436	757	181	328	28	8	336	115	+2	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
2022	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	425	373	97	21	2	17	40	117	6	6	5	260	341	464	805	204	327	28	9	352	127	+13	-1	—	—	+12	2.5
2023	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	44	41	7	0	0	0	2	17	1	1	0	171	227	171	398		292	39	5	192	5	-5	+0	-1	-5	+1	-0.9
2023	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	393	331	102	18	1	16	55	94	4	2	3	308	413	514	926	205	386	24	14	407	170	+31	-1	—	—	+11	4.2
2024	27	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	95	79	15	5	0	2	16	24	0	2	1	190	326	329	655	139	245	25	17	305	92	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	44	41	7	0	0	0	2	17	1	1	0	171	227	171	398		292	39	5	192	5	-5	+0	-1	-5	+1	-0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ricky Ledeelast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,897 PA	7	1,897	52	21	239	323	404	-8	-6	5.0	5.0
	/162	664	18	7	239	323	404	-2.9	-2.1	1.7	pk7: 5
#2Luis Matoslast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,740 PA	6	1,740	30	71	258	315	379	+1	+1	4.6	4.6
#2Luis Matoslast yr '06 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,740 PA	/162	664	11	27	258	315	379	+0.4	+0.2	1.7	pk7: 5
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	7	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	/162	664	11	16	238	326	354	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	690	16	20	242	312	375	-2	-3	1.6	1.6
	/162	664	16	19	242	312	375	-2.1	-3.0	1.6	pk7: 2
#5Jose Maciaslast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,785 PA	6	1,785	25	43	256	298	370	-8	+2	1.4	1.4
	/162	664	9	16	256	298	370	-3.1	+0.6	0.5	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
TJ Hopkins (OGILVIE)	29	—	—	—	—	253/325/394	141	338	5	10	28%	9%	106	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tyler Greene 2012 · MLB	28	50→53	48→50	59→55	44	244/317/394	150	330	15	26	29%	8%	102	+1.8	228/282/364	136	320	14	18	31%	6%	79	+0.3	219/264/338	119	315	12	13	33%	5%	61	-0.6
✕Jonathan Villar 2020 · MLB	29	52→60	49→50	59→65	47	259/322/410	151	329	17	32	26%	8%	108	+2.3	247/312/390	143	317	16	26	26%	8%	98	+1.6	236/299/369	133	306	15	25	26%	8%	84	+0.4
✕Jon Berti 2020 · MLB	30	54→63	46→45	60	48	261/330/398	137	325	13	32	23%	8%	108	+2.3	247/336/366	119	318	11	30	23%	11%	102	+1.9	270/339/373	102	338	9	39	21%	9%	102	+1.0
✕Josh Rojas 2023 · MLB	29	53→54	45→50	53→55	54	255/333/381	126	315	11	18	22%	10%	105	+2.1	236/306/347	111	297	10	16	22%	9%	85	+0.7	221/291/320	99	280	9	15	23%	9%	69	-0.2
✕Andrew Stevenson 2023 · MLB	29	52→59	47→50	59→60	42	254/305/402	147	325	13	24	25%	6%	98	+1.6	255/308/393	138	329	13	36	25%	6%	97	+1.5	266/320/399	133	345	13	48	25%	6%	98	+1.0
✕Sam Haggerty 2023 · MLB	29	50→44	48→50	62→65	46	245/314/399	154	314	14	32	26%	8%	102	+1.8	250/325/382	132	316	11	35	22%	9%	102	+1.8	241/319/357	115	310	7	40	23%	9%	90	+0.4
●Harrison Bader 2023 · MLB	29	50→56	49→55	55	46	253/308/405	152	298	17	21	21%	6%	101	+1.8	239/292/372	133	285	15	23	21%	6%	85	+0.7	242/304/399	157	300	20	16	25%	6%	96	+0.9
✕Brent Lillibridge 2012 · MLB	28	46→55	49→50	55→60	44	234/299/381	147	298	18	29	27%	7%	91	+1.1	218/272/347	129	294	16	25	30%	5%	71	-0.3	201/250/309	108	278	13	26	31%	5%	49	-1.0
✕Cameron Maybin 2017 · MLB	30	56→60	42→50	53→55	52	269/333/381	112	321	9	20	19%	9%	105	+2.1	251/329/377	126	310	12	25	21%	10%	102	+1.9	244/329/374	130	306	12	27	23%	11%	99	+1.1
✕Hernán Pérez 2019 · MLB	28	51→55	50→55	55	43	260/295/410	150	298	18	21	20%	5%	96	+1.5	243/287/397	154	298	19	16	24%	6%	90	+1.0	239/283/364	126	302	16	24	26%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Greg Allen 2023 · MLB	30	52→57	43→45	60→65	45	244/333/363	119	323	10	34	26%	7%	102	+1.8	226/314/349	123	299	10	35	26%	7%	90	+1.0	218/308/337	119	293	9	40	27%	7%	82	+0.2
●Eduardo Núñez 2017 · MLB	30	56→61	49→50	58→60	46	282/322/431	150	309	16	32	15%	5%	113	+2.6	271/303/404	133	296	14	22	13%	4%	98	+1.6	263/290/383	120	286	12	18	13%	3%	85	+0.4
✕Trevor Story 2022 · MLB	29	44→49	53→60	55	50	230/307/410	180	275	20	21	24%	9%	102	+1.9	226/295/392	166	292	19	21	28%	8%	92	+1.2	241/292/393	153	309	20	30	28%	6%	88	+0.5
✕Desmond Jennings 2014 · MLB	27	49→59	49→50	57→60	53	246/323/405	159	288	16	24	20%	10%	107	+2.2	235/308/375	140	281	14	16	20%	9%	93	+1.3	225/299/356	131	269	13	15	21%	9%	82	+0.3
✕Chris Dickerson 2011 · MLB	29	55	45→50	59→60	51	259/336/394	135	351	11	25	27%	10%	108	+2.3	242/311/366	124	339	11	26	29%	9%	92	+1.2	241/318/390	149	333	14	22	30%	9%	99	+0.9
✕Eric Campbell 2016 · MLB	29	52→57	44→45	49→50	55	251/340/370	119	306	10	14	20%	10%	105	+2.1	241/327/351	110	299	9	12	21%	10%	95	+1.4	233/322/348	115	288	10	9	21%	10%	90	+0.7
✕Niko Goodrum 2021 · MLB	29	49→54	52→55	54→55	47	241/313/420	179	328	18	16	31%	9%	107	+2.2	223/310/361	138	322	15	17	32%	11%	91	+1.1	235/336/360	125	330	13	14	29%	13%	98	+0.6
✕Alejandro De Aza 2013 · MLB	29	57→61	44→50	55	49	276/335/407	131	329	10	25	19%	7%	111	+2.5	259/321/396	137	320	12	18	22%	8%	103	+1.9	254/319/394	140	316	12	17	22%	8%	98	+1.4
✕Drew Stubbs 2015 · MLB	30	48→51	47→50	57→60	44	235/297/374	138	322	15	24	30%	8%	88	+0.9	222/299/354	132	324	14	22	33%	9%	84	+0.6	204/290/316	112	307	12	23	34%	10%	68	-0.2
✕Dylan Moore 2021 · MLB	28	46→47	53→50	52→65	45	235/316/418	183	297	20	26	27%	8%	108	+2.3	217/319/392	175	287	20	31	30%	10%	103	+1.9	210/332/386	176	289	16	41	30%	12%	104	+1.0