TJ Hopkins — OGILVIE

TJ HopkinsRF Erie SeaWolves

Age 29 R/R 6'1" / 195 lbs AA HR -8% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 200 proj PA

wRC+†104

AVG/OBP/SLG.253 / .327 / .385

PA17

HR0

K%27

BB%9

ISO134

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023

CONTACT—

Whiff%

1514.9%

xAVG

100.178

POWER—

Avg EV

4488.7

Bat Spd

4470.7

EYE—

Chase%

3235.2%

SPEED—

Sprint

8728.9

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	292	257	69	14	7	5	26	71	4	3	0	268	345	436	781	167	348	24	9	341	117	+6	+1	—	—	+6	1.3
2022	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	103	94	24	5	0	4	8	29	1	2	0	255	320	436	757	181	328	28	8	336	114	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2022	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	425	373	97	21	2	17	40	117	6	6	5	260	341	464	805	204	327	28	9	352	124	+12	-1	—	—	+9	2.1
2023	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	44	41	7	0	0	0	2	17	1	1	0	171	227	171	398		292	39	5	192	16	-4	+0	-1	-5	+1	-0.9
2023	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	393	331	102	18	1	16	55	94	4	2	3	308	413	514	926	205	386	24	14	407	162	+29	-1	—	—	+9	3.7
2024	27	AA	Erie SeaWolves	—	95	79	15	5	0	2	16	24	0	2	1	190	326	329	655	139	245	25	17	305	93	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	44	41	7	0	0	0	2	17	1	1	0	171	227	171	398		292	39	5	192	16	-4	+0	-1	-5	+1	-0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	292	264	63	11	7	4	19	83	4	3	0	239	300	379	678	140	320	28	7	294	85	-5	+1	—	—	+6	0.2
2022	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	103	97	19	4	0	2	5	36	1	2	0	196	243	299	542	103	287	35	5	239	48	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2022	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	425	386	82	16	2	13	27	142	6	6	5	212	274	365	640	153	283	33	6	279	75	-13	-1	—	—	+9	-0.4
2023	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	44	41	7	0	0	0	2	17	1	1	0	171	227	171	398		292	39	5	189	14	-5	+0	-1	-5	+1	-0.9
2023	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	393	349	94	17	1	11	37	112	4	2	3	269	346	418	764	149	358	28	9	332	111	+5	-1	—	—	+9	1.3
2024	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	95	85	14	4	0	2	10	29	0	2	1	165	253	282	535	118	232	31	11	243	51	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2021	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	292	264	63	11	7	4	19	83	4	3	0	239	300	379	678	140	328	28	7	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	292	257	69	14	7	5	26	71	4	3	0	268	345	436	781	167	348	24	9	341	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	528	482	101	20	2	15	33	178	7	8	5	210	270	353	623	143	292	34	6	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	528	467	121	26	2	21	48	146	7	8	5	259	337	458	795	199	327	28	9	349	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	437	390	101	17	1	11	39	129	5	3	3	259	334	392	726	133	357	30	9	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	437	372	109	18	1	16	57	111	5	3	3	293	394	476	870	183	377	25	13	385	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	95	85	14	4	0	2	10	29	0	2	1	165	253	282	535	118	222	31	11	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	—	95	79	15	5	0	2	16	24	0	2	1	190	326	329	655	139	245	25	17	305	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	292	267	63	11	7	4	19	83	4	3	0	236	300	375	674	139	320	28	7	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	528	483	101	20	2	15	33	178	7	8	5	209	270	352	622	143	284	34	6	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	437	390	101	17	1	11	39	129	5	3	3	259	334	392	726	133	351	30	9	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	95	85	14	4	0	2	10	29	0	2	1	165	253	282	535	118	232	31	11	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	437	390	101	17	1	11	39	129	5	3	3	259	334	392	726	133	351	30	9	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	—	95	85	14	4	0	2	10	29	0	2	1	165	253	282	535	118	232	31	11	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	29	MLB MLE	DET	2%	17	15	4	1	0	0	2	5	0	1	0	267	353	333	686	67	338	29	12	322	104	+0	+0	-0	-0	+0	0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	DET	31%	286	255	64	12	1	7	26	77	3	12	2	251	327	388	716	137	331	27	9	318	102	+1	+2	-2	-3	+6	0.3
2028	31	MLB MLE	DET	48%	271	242	59	11	1	6	25	73	2	10	2	244	320	372	692	128	324	27	9	314	99	-0	+1	-3	-3	+6	0.1
2029	32	MLB MLE	DET	58%	252	225	54	10	1	6	23	68	2	8	2	240	316	373	689	133	317	27	9	308	94	-2	+1	-4	-3	+5	-0.2
2030	33	MLB MLE	DET	64%	222	198	48	9	1	5	20	61	2	5	1	242	318	374	692	131	312	27	9	301	90	-3	+1	-4	-2	+5	-0.4
2027	30	MLB CTX	DET	31%	89	80	20	4	0	2	8	24	1	4	1	250	326	375	701	125	325	27	9	307	102	+0	+0	-1	-1	+2	0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	DET	48%	131	117	28	5	0	3	12	35	1	5	1	239	315	359	674	120	318	27	9	302	99	-0	+1	-1	-1	+3	0.0
2029	32	MLB CTX	DET	58%	146	131	30	6	0	3	13	40	1	5	1	229	303	344	647	115	312	27	9	296	94	-1	+1	-2	-2	+3	-0.1
2030	33	MLB CTX	DET	64%	142	127	29	5	0	3	13	39	1	3	1	228	305	339	644	110	307	27	9	290	90	-2	+0	-3	-2	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	552	496	114	20	0	11	48	155	5	18	4	230	304	337	641	107	309	28	9	289	88	-7	+2	-7	-10	+12	-1.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	135	24	0	13	57	183	6	21	5	231	307	339	646	108	311	28	9	289	88	-8	+2	-9	-12	+14	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2400	2156	508	95	14	56	197	703	25	52	16	236	307	371	678	135	320	29	8	299	88	-9	+5	-13	-16	+24	-1.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	138	26	4	15	53	190	7	14	4	236	307	372	679	135	321	29	8	299	88	-5	+3	-8	-9	+14	-0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gabe Grosslast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,682 PA	2.5	1,682	40	22	239	330	385	-14	+11	5.1	5.1
/162	664	16	9	-5.7	+4.4	2.0	pk7: 5
#2Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Jason Phillipslast yr '07 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,508 PA	2.3	1,508	29	0	248	314	368	+11	-10	2.7	2.7
/162	664	13	0	+4.7	-4.4	1.2	pk7: 3
#5Conor Gillaspielast yr '17 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,503 PA	2.3	1,503	32	1	252	305	394	+5	-14	2.2	2.2
/162	664	14	0	+2.4	-6.1	1.0	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.8	512	11	17	244	315	373	-0	-2	1.4	1.4
/162	664	15	22	-0.3	-2.7	1.8	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
TJ Hopkins (OGILVIE)	29	—	—	—	—	253/327/385	133	338	5	10	27%	9%	104	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tyler Greene 2012 · MLB	28	49→51	48→50	59→55	45	240/314/384	144	324	15	26	29%	8%	99	+1.2	230/284/365	135	322	14	18	31%	6%	82	+0.0	224/268/345	121	322	12	13	33%	5%	69	-0.6
✕Jonathan Villar 2020 · MLB	29	53→60	49→50	58→65	47	260/323/408	148	331	17	32	26%	8%	107	+1.8	248/313/390	142	319	16	26	26%	8%	99	+1.2	237/300/368	131	307	15	25	27%	8%	86	+0.2
✕Josh Rojas 2023 · MLB	29	53→54	45→50	53→55	54	256/334/385	129	314	12	18	22%	10%	105	+1.7	235/306/346	111	295	10	16	22%	9%	86	+0.3	220/290/317	97	278	9	15	23%	9%	71	-0.5
✕Sam Haggerty 2023 · MLB	29	49→43	48→50	61→65	46	240/311/390	149	307	15	32	26%	8%	99	+1.2	248/323/377	129	314	11	35	23%	9%	100	+1.3	240/317/351	111	309	8	38	23%	9%	88	+0.2
✕Jon Berti 2020 · MLB	30	53→62	46→45	60	48	259/329/392	133	322	12	32	23%	8%	105	+1.7	246/336/365	119	316	11	30	23%	11%	102	+1.5	269/337/371	102	336	9	39	21%	9%	100	+0.7
✕Cameron Maybin 2017 · MLB	30	56→60	42→50	53→55	52	268/332/380	112	320	9	20	19%	9%	103	+1.5	251/330/379	128	309	12	25	21%	10%	103	+1.5	245/331/378	132	307	13	27	23%	11%	100	+0.9
✕Drew Stubbs 2015 · MLB	30	50→57	48→50	57→60	44	245/306/392	146	335	16	24	30%	8%	97	+1.1	226/303/360	134	333	14	22	33%	9%	88	+0.5	205/292/316	111	312	12	23	35%	10%	72	-0.4
✕Hernán Pérez 2019 · MLB	28	51→55	48→50	55	43	256/292/399	143	296	16	21	20%	5%	93	+0.8	240/284/386	146	296	17	16	24%	6%	87	+0.4	233/279/345	112	299	13	24	26%	5%	74	-0.2
✕Greg Allen 2023 · MLB	30	51→57	43→45	60→65	45	241/330/358	117	319	10	34	26%	7%	99	+1.3	221/310/338	117	292	9	35	26%	7%	87	+0.4	210/302/322	111	283	8	40	26%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Andrew Stevenson 2023 · MLB	29	51→58	46→50	59→60	41	248/300/384	136	322	12	24	26%	6%	93	+0.8	250/305/380	130	325	12	36	25%	6%	93	+0.8	258/316/385	127	336	11	48	25%	6%	94	+0.5
✕Chris Dickerson 2011 · MLB	29	55	44→50	59→60	51	257/334/387	130	348	10	25	27%	10%	105	+1.7	239/309/357	118	335	10	26	29%	9%	90	+0.6	241/317/376	135	334	12	22	29%	9%	95	+0.5
✕Eric Campbell 2016 · MLB	29	53→57	44→45	49→50	55	256/345/379	123	310	11	14	20%	10%	109	+2.0	244/329/355	111	302	10	12	21%	10%	97	+1.1	236/323/352	116	290	11	9	21%	10%	92	+0.5
●Harrison Bader 2023 · MLB	29	50→56	50→55	55	46	254/309/409	155	298	17	21	21%	6%	102	+1.5	241/294/374	133	288	15	23	21%	6%	88	+0.5	245/306/402	157	304	19	16	25%	6%	98	+0.7
✕Desmond Jennings 2014 · MLB	27	49→59	49→50	58→60	53	246/322/401	155	289	15	24	20%	10%	105	+1.7	236/310/375	139	283	13	16	20%	9%	95	+0.9	227/301/356	130	272	13	15	21%	9%	86	+0.1
✕Alejandro De Aza 2013 · MLB	29	57→61	44→50	55	49	275/334/405	130	330	9	25	19%	7%	109	+2.0	259/322/397	138	320	12	18	22%	8%	103	+1.6	254/320/394	140	317	12	17	22%	8%	99	+1.1
✕Esteban German 2007 · MLB	29	60→61	41→45	58→60	55	282/360/391	108	335	6	23	16%	10%	116	+2.5	265/342/369	104	316	5	20	16%	10%	104	+1.6	265/344/355	91	318	4	25	16%	10%	100	+0.9
●Eduardo Núñez 2017 · MLB	30	56→62	49→50	58→60	46	279/319/427	149	306	16	32	15%	5%	109	+2.0	275/306/411	136	300	14	22	13%	4%	101	+1.4	269/296/394	125	293	13	18	13%	3%	91	+0.5
✕Niko Goodrum 2021 · MLB	29	48→53	51→55	54→55	47	237/310/410	174	323	18	16	31%	9%	103	+1.5	220/307/353	133	318	14	17	32%	11%	88	+0.5	226/326/337	111	323	11	14	30%	13%	90	+0.2
✕Elvis Andrus 2018 · MLB	29	57→61	47→50	53→60	50	282/332/427	145	309	13	22	14%	7%	114	+2.3	261/309/388	127	294	12	19	15%	6%	97	+1.1	247/300/360	114	282	10	17	16%	6%	84	+0.2
✕Tim Locastro 2021 · MLB	29	50→54	45	61→60	47	242/338/374	131	289	11	27	19%	6%	106	+1.8	212/294/332	120	260	11	24	22%	5%	80	-0.1	212/302/326	115	267	11	36	23%	5%	80	-0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps