Ryan McKenna — OGILVIE

Ryan McKennaCF Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 29 R/R 5'10" / 195 lbs AAA HR +4% Svc 5.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 315 proj PA

wRC+†94

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .298 / .390

PA315

HR10

SB14

K%26

BB%8

ISO161

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT44

Whiff%

1016.0%

xwOBA

170.270

POWER52

Barrel%

569.0

Avg EV

4188.4

Bat Spd

7073.5

EYE49

Chase%

4532.6%

SPEED67

Sprint

6628.1

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-3	$2M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	GCL Orioles	—	41	36	8	0	1	0	4	9	0	1	1	222	300	278	578	56	286	22	10	241	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK	GCL Orioles	—	41	34	9	0	1	0	6	6	0	1	1	265	375	324	699	59	310	15	15	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	530	479	104	27	2	9	32	172	11	20	2	217	282	338	620	121	316	32	6	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	530	468	120	33	2	7	43	128	11	20	2	256	333	380	714	124	336	24	8	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	3 teams	—	629	561	146	24	4	7	51	164	11	11	8	260	334	355	689	94	356	26	8	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	3 teams	—	629	531	169	32	7	12	80	117	11	11	8	318	417	473	890	154	391	19	13	394	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	567	508	90	21	4	8	39	177	7	25	11	177	245	281	527	104	251	31	7	230	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	567	488	113	26	6	9	59	121	7	25	11	232	323	365	688	133	287	21	10	306	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB	2 teams	—	320	277	59	8	2	11	38	115	2	8	3	213	312	375	688	162	316	36	12	303	90	-4	+0	+2	-3	+9	0.5
2021	24	MLB	2 teams	—	320	270	62	9	2	13	45	107	2	8	3	230	344	422	766	193	325	33	14	341	119	+7	+0	+2	-3	+9	1.5
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	—	210	190	45	9	0	5	14	71	2	2	3	237	296	363	659	126	345	34	7	281	73	-6	-1	+3	-2	+6	-0.0
2022	25	MLB	2 teams	—	210	189	46	10	0	5	15	69	2	2	3	243	306	376	681	132	350	33	7	301	89	-3	-1	+3	-2	+6	0.3
2023	26	MLB	2 teams	—	200	178	38	8	1	4	14	66	3	7	0	213	282	337	619	124	309	33	7	269	64	-8	+1	+1	-2	+6	-0.3
2023	26	MLB	2 teams	—	200	177	41	9	1	5	15	61	3	7	0	232	303	379	681	147	319	30	8	299	87	-3	+1	+1	-2	+6	0.3
2024	27	AAA	3 teams	—	265	236	49	10	1	8	20	70	3	16	3	208	278	360	638	153	253	26	8	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA	3 teams	—	265	226	52	11	1	9	30	60	3	16	3	230	328	407	735	177	267	23	11	323	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	PHI	—	315	284	66	13	1	10	24	82	4	14	3	232	301	391	692	158	286	26	8	308	94	-2	+2	+1	-3	+9	0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	PHI	36%	337	304	70	13	1	11	26	88	4	13	3	230	299	388	688	158	285	26	8	305	92	-3	+1	-2	-4	+10	0.3
2028	31	MLB	PHI	51%	322	291	65	12	1	10	24	85	4	11	2	223	292	375	666	151	283	26	7	301	89	-4	+1	-2	-3	+9	0.1
2029	32	MLB	PHI	60%	303	274	61	11	1	9	23	81	3	9	2	223	290	369	659	146	279	27	8	295	84	-5	+1	-3	-3	+9	-0.2
2030	33	MLB	PHI	65%	273	247	54	10	1	8	21	75	3	6	1	219	288	364	652	146	274	27	8	288	79	-7	+1	-4	-3	+8	-0.5
2027	30	MLB	PHI	36%	121	110	26	5	1	4	9	32	1	5	1	236	300	409	709	173	287	26	7	299	87	-2	+1	-1	-1	+3	0.0
2028	31	MLB	PHI	51%	164	149	34	6	1	5	12	43	2	6	1	228	294	383	677	154	285	26	7	295	84	-3	+1	-1	-2	+5	-0.0
2029	32	MLB	PHI	60%	181	163	38	7	1	6	14	49	2	5	1	233	302	399	700	166	281	27	8	290	80	-4	+1	-2	-2	+5	-0.2
2030	33	MLB	PHI	65%	177	160	35	6	1	5	13	48	2	4	1	219	286	362	648	144	277	27	7	283	74	-5	+0	-2	-2	+5	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1166	1043	235	47	5	28	93	346	14	29	6	225	297	360	658	135	306	30	8	287	78	-29	+3	-2	-18	+33	-1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	131	26	3	16	52	193	8	16	3	225	298	363	661	138	306	30	8	287	78	-16	+2	-1	-10	+18	-0.7
Career	—			—	4312	3865	855	166	20	100	330	1255	57	143	42	221	292	352	644	131	298	29	8	283	75	-123	+12	-6	-46	+122	-4.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	129	25	3	15	50	189	9	22	6	221	293	352	645	130	298	29	8	283	75	-19	+2	-1	-7	+18	-0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	18	ROK	GCL Orioles	—	41	34	9	0	1	0	6	6	0	1	1	265	375	324	699	59	310	15	15	318	102	+0	-0	—	—	+1	0.1
2017	20	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	530	468	120	33	2	7	43	128	11	20	2	256	333	380	714	124	336	24	8	319	102	+1	+3	—	—	+15	2.0
2018	21	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	250	213	51	8	2	3	29	56	4	4	1	239	341	338	679	99	312	22	12	309	95	-1	+0	—	—	+7	0.6
2018	21	A+	Frederick Keys	—	301	257	97	18	2	8	37	45	6	5	6	377	465	556	1.022	179	436	15	12	451	203	+35	-1	—	—	+9	4.3
2018	21	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	78	61	21	6	3	1	14	16	1	2	1	344	474	590	1.064	246	455	21	18	450	202	+9	+0	—	—	+2	1.1
2019	22	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	567	488	113	26	6	9	59	121	7	25	11	232	323	365	688	133	287	21	10	306	92	-5	+1	—	—	+16	1.2
2021	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	197	169	31	6	1	2	24	74	2	1	0	183	292	266	559	83	312	38	12	262	59	-9	+0	+2	-3	+6	-0.5
2021	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	123	101	31	3	1	11	21	33	0	7	3	307	426	683	1.109	376	345	27	17	467	216	+16	+0	—	—	+3	2.0
2022	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	172	156	37	10	0	2	11	55	2	2	1	237	296	340	636	103	350	32	6	284	75	-5	+0	+3	-2	+5	0.1
2022	25	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	38	33	9	0	0	3	4	14	0	0	2	273	351	545	897	273	353	37	11	381	149	+2	-1	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	139	122	31	7	0	2	9	40	3	5	0	254	321	361	682	107	354	29	6	299	87	-2	+1	+1	-2	+4	0.2
2023	26	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	61	55	10	2	1	3	6	21	0	2	0	182	262	418	680	236	226	34	10	299	87	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2024	27	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	15	14	3	0	0	2	1	5	0	1	1	214	267	643	910	429	143	33	7	384	152	+1	-0	-2	-3	+0	-0.4
2024	27	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	—	229	195	42	10	1	6	25	50	3	15	2	215	314	369	683	154	252	22	11	302	89	-3	+2	—	—	+6	0.6
2024	27	ROK	ACL Giants	—	21	17	7	1	0	1	4	5	0	0	0	412	524	647	1.171	235	545	24	19	509	247	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	523	461	102	23	1	8	45	174	7	9	2	221	300	328	628	106	333	33	9	282	74	-15	+1	+4	-11	+15	-0.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#3Chris Woodwardlast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,835 PA	9	1,835	33	9	242	299	370	+2	-0	2.2	2.7
	/162	664	12	3	242	299	370	+0.6	-0.0	0.8	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#5Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,181	26	29	223	292	350	-6	+4	0.5	0.8
	/162	664	15	16	223	292	350	-3.4	+2.2	0.3	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan McKenna (OGILVIE)	29	44	52	67	49	230/298/390	160	286	10	14	26%	8%	94	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tyler Greene 2013 · MLB	29	48→53	50	56→55	43	238/303/396	159	315	17	24	29%	7%	97	+1.5	224/272/345	121	325	12	14	33%	5%	70	-0.3	219/262/322	103	328	9	10	35%	4%	57	-0.9
✕Dylan Moore 2022 · MLB	29	40→47	54→50	55→65	49	214/305/392	178	271	21	29	29%	10%	98	+1.6	219/328/394	175	294	18	33	30%	11%	108	+2.3	210/332/386	176	289	16	41	30%	12%	104	+1.0
✕Trevor Story 2022 · MLB	29	44→49	53→60	55	50	230/307/410	180	275	20	21	24%	9%	102	+1.9	226/295/392	166	292	19	21	28%	8%	92	+1.2	241/292/393	153	309	20	30	28%	6%	88	+0.5
●Dairon Blanco 2022 · AAA	29	45→49	46→50	58→70	40	224/279/355	131	294	14	32	28%	6%	76	+0.0	255/314/393	138	332	15	63	26%	6%	100	+1.7	267/329/405	137	352	15	90	26%	6%	106	+1.1
✕Hernán Pérez 2019 · MLB	28	51→55	50→55	55	43	260/295/410	150	298	18	21	20%	5%	96	+1.5	243/287/397	154	298	19	16	24%	6%	90	+1.0	239/283/364	126	302	16	24	26%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Sam Haggerty 2023 · MLB	29	50→44	48→50	62→65	46	245/314/399	154	314	14	32	26%	8%	102	+1.8	250/325/382	132	316	11	35	22%	9%	102	+1.8	241/319/357	115	310	7	40	23%	9%	90	+0.4
✕Brent Lillibridge 2012 · MLB	28	46→55	49→50	55→60	44	234/299/381	147	298	18	29	27%	7%	91	+1.1	218/272/347	129	294	16	25	30%	5%	71	-0.3	201/250/309	108	278	13	26	31%	5%	49	-1.0
✕Eli White 2023 · MLB	29	44→49	48→50	55→60	46	219/294/353	134	297	16	24	30%	9%	82	+0.5	236/305/381	145	323	17	28	30%	8%	94	+1.3	238/302/384	146	318	18	31	30%	7%	89	+0.5
✕Drew Stubbs 2015 · MLB	30	48→51	47→50	57→60	44	235/297/374	138	322	15	24	30%	8%	88	+0.9	222/299/354	132	324	14	22	33%	9%	84	+0.6	204/290/316	112	307	12	23	34%	10%	68	-0.2
✕Arismendy Alcántara 2021 · AAA	29	47→48	50→60	58→55	43	236/289/396	160	304	17	19	28%	7%	90	+1.0	239/288/445	206	329	25	10	34%	6%	103	+1.9	233/280/496	263	313	33	4	36%	6%	110	+1.0
✕Mario Lisson 2013 · AA	29	46→49	50→55	54→55	44	230/296/392	162	298	17	19	28%	7%	92	+1.2	232/295/387	155	289	19	11	26%	6%	92	+1.2	231/301/377	146	300	19	8	28%	7%	90	+0.7
●Harrison Bader 2023 · MLB	29	50→56	49→55	55	46	253/308/405	152	298	17	21	21%	6%	101	+1.8	239/292/372	133	285	15	23	21%	6%	85	+0.7	242/304/399	157	300	20	16	25%	6%	96	+0.9
✕Michael A. Taylor 2019 · MLB	28	48→53	49→55	56→60	42	235/289/392	156	322	16	28	31%	7%	89	+1.0	228/282/375	147	315	16	20	31%	7%	82	+0.5	242/299/384	143	312	19	14	28%	7%	90	+0.8
✕Jeremy Hazelbaker 2017 · MLB	29	47→54	50→55	58→60	42	235/291/399	164	318	16	19	31%	7%	92	+1.2	211/274/368	157	327	17	18	38%	8%	77	+0.1	185/251/333	149	300	16	21	42%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Tim Locastro 2021 · MLB	29	50→53	44→45	61→60	47	240/335/368	128	288	10	27	19%	6%	105	+2.1	210/291/332	122	257	12	24	23%	5%	76	+0.1	207/296/319	112	263	11	36	24%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Andrew Stevenson 2023 · MLB	29	52→59	47→50	59→60	42	254/305/402	147	325	13	24	25%	6%	98	+1.6	255/308/393	138	329	13	36	25%	6%	97	+1.5	266/320/399	133	345	13	48	25%	6%	98	+1.0
✕Lane Adams 2018 · MLB	28	47→46	48→50	61→60	40	231/282/370	139	319	16	34	32%	6%	81	+0.4	198/264/334	136	314	15	23	39%	7%	64	-0.8	161/237/290	129	263	15	20	42%	8%	39	-1.2
✕Pokey Reese 2002 · MLB	29	48→55	45	59→55	51	236/299/363	127	265	12	28	16%	8%	85	+0.7	238/300/337	99	288	8	19	19%	8%	79	+0.3	237/299/315	78	294	6	17	20%	8%	67	-0.2
✕Jonathan Davis 2021 · MLB	29	46→52	46→45	54→55	45	227/308/358	131	295	12	19	26%	7%	89	+1.0	216/308/331	115	293	11	23	28%	9%	82	+0.5	224/306/341	117	313	11	22	29%	9%	81	+0.2
✕Jonathan Villar 2020 · MLB	29	52→60	49→50	59→65	47	259/322/410	151	329	17	32	26%	8%	108	+2.3	247/312/390	143	317	16	26	26%	8%	98	+1.6	236/299/369	133	306	15	25	26%	8%	84	+0.4