Anthony Prato
SS Indianapolis Indians| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 25 | AAA/AAMIN | 455 | .255/.404/.435 | 12 | 18 | 81 | — | .202/.317/.319 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAAMIN | 413 | .228/.371/.350 | 3 | 10 | 76 | — | .204/.315/.306 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAAPIT | 327 | .246/.395/.335 | 4 | 21 | 82 | — | .224/.336/.292 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBPIT | 16 | .229/.333/.319 | 0 | 1 | 91 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ33% MLB | 30 | MLBPIT | 69 | .227/.329/.316 | 1 | 2 | 88 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 31 | MLBPIT | 100 | .224/.324/.311 | 1 | 2 | 85 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 55 | 45 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 289 | 418 | 356 | 774 | 67 | 406 | 24 | 15 | 363 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 103 | 83 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 253 | 398 | 289 | 687 | 36 | 328 | 18 | 17 | 332 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 23 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 391 | 222 | 614 | 308 | 22 | 13 | 312 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 356 | 296 | 87 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 45 | 71 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 294 | 406 | 419 | 825 | 125 | 373 | 20 | 13 | 371 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 209 | 181 | 49 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 59 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 271 | 356 | 486 | 842 | 215 | 353 | 28 | 11 | 364 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 299 | 232 | 70 | 23 | 1 | 10 | 59 | 69 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 302 | 455 | 539 | 993 | 237 | 387 | 23 | 20 | 435 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 156 | 129 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 35 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 171 | 305 | 248 | 553 | 78 | 217 | 22 | 13 | 265 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 413 | 334 | 76 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 67 | 85 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 228 | 371 | 350 | 721 | 123 | 296 | 21 | 16 | 333 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 327 | 260 | 64 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 44 | 57 | 20 | 21 | 3 | 246 | 395 | 335 | 730 | 88 | 299 | 17 | 13 | 343 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 55 | 48 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 208 | 327 | 250 | 577 | 42 | 360 | 33 | 11 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 103 | 88 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 26 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 205 | 320 | 239 | 559 | 34 | 285 | 25 | 13 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 304 | 158 | 462 | 237 | 30 | 9 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 356 | 309 | 75 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 90 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 243 | 335 | 333 | 669 | 91 | 332 | 25 | 9 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 209 | 187 | 40 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 75 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 214 | 283 | 385 | 668 | 171 | 296 | 36 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 299 | 252 | 59 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 39 | 85 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 234 | 350 | 385 | 735 | 151 | 318 | 28 | 13 | 330 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 156 | 134 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 42 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 142 | 253 | 194 | 447 | 52 | 189 | 27 | 10 | 210 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 413 | 353 | 72 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 48 | 102 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 204 | 315 | 306 | 621 | 102 | 276 | 25 | 12 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 327 | 277 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 71 | 20 | 21 | 3 | 224 | 336 | 292 | 629 | 69 | 282 | 22 | 8 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 181 | 155 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 51 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 206 | 320 | 239 | 559 | 32 | 308 | 28 | 11 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 181 | 146 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 37 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 260 | 403 | 301 | 705 | 41 | 349 | 20 | 16 | 339 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 565 | 496 | 116 | 25 | 6 | 8 | 48 | 166 | 13 | 22 | 6 | 234 | 318 | 357 | 675 | 123 | 328 | 29 | 8 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 565 | 477 | 136 | 30 | 8 | 10 | 67 | 130 | 13 | 22 | 6 | 285 | 388 | 444 | 832 | 159 | 366 | 23 | 12 | 368 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 455 | 386 | 79 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 54 | 127 | 11 | 18 | 6 | 205 | 319 | 329 | 648 | 124 | 278 | 28 | 12 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 455 | 361 | 92 | 25 | 2 | 12 | 79 | 104 | 11 | 18 | 6 | 255 | 404 | 435 | 838 | 180 | 324 | 23 | 17 | 377 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 413 | 353 | 72 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 48 | 102 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 204 | 315 | 306 | 621 | 102 | 280 | 25 | 12 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | St. Paul Saints | — | 413 | 334 | 76 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 67 | 85 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 228 | 371 | 350 | 721 | 123 | 296 | 21 | 16 | 333 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 327 | 277 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 71 | 20 | 21 | 3 | 224 | 336 | 292 | 629 | 69 | 288 | 22 | 8 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | Indianapolis Indians | — | 327 | 260 | 64 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 44 | 57 | 20 | 21 | 3 | 246 | 395 | 335 | 730 | 88 | 299 | 17 | 13 | 343 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 181 | 153 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 51 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 209 | 320 | 242 | 562 | 33 | 302 | 28 | 11 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 565 | 499 | 116 | 25 | 6 | 8 | 48 | 166 | 13 | 22 | 6 | 232 | 318 | 355 | 672 | 122 | 319 | 29 | 8 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 455 | 387 | 79 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 54 | 127 | 11 | 18 | 6 | 204 | 319 | 328 | 647 | 124 | 274 | 28 | 12 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 413 | 353 | 72 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 48 | 102 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 204 | 315 | 306 | 621 | 102 | 276 | 25 | 12 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 327 | 277 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 71 | 20 | 21 | 3 | 224 | 336 | 292 | 629 | 69 | 282 | 22 | 8 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 413 | 353 | 72 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 48 | 102 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 204 | 315 | 306 | 621 | 102 | 276 | 25 | 12 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 327 | 277 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 71 | 20 | 21 | 3 | 224 | 336 | 292 | 629 | 69 | 282 | 22 | 8 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | PIT | 10% | 377 | 323 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 85 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 228 | 333 | 319 | 652 | 91 | 296 | 23 | 10 | 302 | 91 | -4 | +2 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | PIT | 10% | 16 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 333 | 319 | 652 | 90 | 297 | 25 | 12 | 302 | 91 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | PIT | 33% | 211 | 181 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 48 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 226 | 329 | 316 | 645 | 90 | 294 | 23 | 9 | 299 | 88 | -3 | +1 | -2 | +2 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB MLE | PIT | 46% | 217 | 187 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 50 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 223 | 324 | 311 | 635 | 88 | 292 | 23 | 9 | 294 | 85 | -4 | +0 | -3 | +2 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | PIT | 33% | 69 | 59 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 227 | 329 | 316 | 645 | 89 | 295 | 23 | 10 | 299 | 88 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB CTX | PIT | 46% | 100 | 87 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 224 | 324 | 311 | 635 | 87 | 293 | 23 | 9 | 294 | 85 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 169 | 146 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 39 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 233 | 337 | 336 | 673 | 103 | 305 | 23 | 9 | 296 | 82 | -3 | +1 | -2 | +2 | +4 | 0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 562 | 131 | 27 | 4 | 8 | 62 | 150 | 27 | 15 | 0 | 233 | 338 | 338 | 677 | 105 | 304 | 23 | 10 | 296 | 82 | -10 | +3 | -8 | +7 | +14 | 0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2524 | 2168 | 474 | 95 | 18 | 27 | 252 | 650 | 81 | 93 | 21 | 219 | 323 | 316 | 639 | 98 | 297 | 26 | 10 | 289 | 82 | -8 | +2 | -5 | +6 | +13 | 0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 558 | 122 | 24 | 5 | 7 | 65 | 167 | 21 | 24 | 5 | 219 | 323 | 317 | 640 | 99 | 296 | 26 | 10 | 289 | 82 | -9 | +2 | -5 | +7 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 327 PAwOBA .337 → .290 (−47)K% 17.4% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.43% | ÷0.965 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.46% | ÷1.112 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.12% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 5.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.63% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | ×1.043 | ×1.003 | 23.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.43% | ÷0.995 | ×0.830 | ×1.043 | ×1.003 | 3.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.043 | ×1.003 | 0.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.97% | ÷0.915 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.51% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 93, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .337 → .290; ISO .088 → .075; BABIP .299 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 413 PAwOBA .326 → .280 (−46)K% 20.6% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.58% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.22% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 11.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.18% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.88% | ÷1.010 | ×0.930 | ×1.024 | ×1.018 | 18.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.03% | ÷0.996 | ×0.830 | ×1.024 | ×1.018 | 6.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.41% | ÷1.043 | ×0.970 | ×1.024 | ×1.018 | 2.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.039 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.83% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 109, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .326 → .280; ISO .123 → .107; BABIP .296 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAASt. Paul Saints · 299 PAwOBA .427 → .330 (−97)K% 23.1% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷0.973 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.73% | ÷1.067 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 13.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.01% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.09% | ÷0.964 | ×0.930 | ×0.974 | ×1.033 | 21.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.11% | ÷1.341 | ×0.830 | ×0.974 | ×1.033 | 8.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷0.977 | ×0.970 | ×0.974 | ×1.033 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.13% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.40% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 93, 2B 168, 3B 95, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .427 → .330; ISO .237 → .169; BABIP .387 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAWichita Wind Surge · 156 PAwOBA .259 → .210 (−49)K% 22.4% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.44% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.82% | ÷0.962 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 9.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.21% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 2.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.09% | ÷1.011 | ×0.920 | ×0.960 | ×0.998 | 15.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.13% | ÷0.931 | ×0.840 | ×0.960 | ×0.998 | 1.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.06% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.960 | ×0.998 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.231 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.38% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 104, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .259 → .210; ISO .078 → .060; BABIP .217 → .189. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAWichita Wind Surge · 356 PAwOBA .365 → .306 (−60)K% 19.9% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.94% | ÷0.958 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.64% | ÷0.991 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 9.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.09% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 2.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.22% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×1.012 | 23.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.78% | ÷1.001 | ×0.840 | ×0.996 | ×1.012 | 8.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.33% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.996 | ×1.012 | 1.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.33% | ÷0.985 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.10% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 92, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .365 → .306; ISO .125 → .104; BABIP .373 → .332. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 209 PAwOBA .361 → .283 (−78)K% 28.2% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.23% | ÷0.993 | ×1.270 | — | — | 36.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷0.983 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 7.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.77% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×0.962 | ×0.988 | 20.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.56% | ÷0.912 | ×0.810 | ×0.962 | ×0.988 | 5.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.10% | ÷1.011 | ×0.850 | ×0.962 | ×0.988 | 3.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.74% | ÷0.948 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.79% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 104, 2B 82, 3B 102, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .361 → .283; ISO .215 → .170; BABIP .353 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 103 PAwOBA .325 → .257 (−68)K% 18.4% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.45% | ÷0.979 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.48% | ÷0.976 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 12.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.94% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.12% | ÷1.066 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×0.990 | 24.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.69% | ÷0.909 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×0.990 | 4.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.937 | ×0.910 | ×1.008 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.908 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 113, 2B 82, 3B 87, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .325 → .257; ISO .036 → .032; BABIP .328 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 55 PAwOBA .355 → .280 (−74)K% 23.6% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.64% | ÷0.992 | ×1.350 | — | — | 32.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.55% | ÷1.026 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 10.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.64% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 2.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.25% | ÷1.012 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.998 | 28.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷0.976 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 7.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.920 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .355 → .280; ISO .067 → .053; BABIP .406 → .360. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).