Marco Luciano

2B Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 25 R/R 6'1" / 215 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 4.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

AAAROOKIEArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	22	AAASF	384	.250/.381/.380	10	4	93	—	.244/.337/.345
2024	22	MLBSF	81	.211/.259/.303	0	0	59	-0.5
2025	23	AAA/INTL2 orgs	570	.211/.337/.405	23	11	69	—	.183/.277/.337
2026	24	AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs	527	.291/.389/.538	28	8	108	—	.248/.324/.432
2027PROJ10% MLB	25	MLBNYY	16	.226/.310/.394	1	0	96	0.0
2028PROJ42% MLB	26	MLBNYY	223	.229/.312/.403	8	3	98	0.4
2029PROJ55% MLB	27	MLBNYY	279	.229/.311/.401	10	4	98	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.000First FA2029

2027Arb-2$1M2028Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Max EV96

BB%78

Chase%59

Speed53

K%45

Whiff%32

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 8.4, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 81%

CompsDrew Ellis (age 26) · Davis Schneider (age 25) · Tom Murphy (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9996vR 86

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .310 / .394

PA16

HR1

K%31

BB%12

BABIP302

ISO286

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2024

CONTACT35

xAVG

250.231

POWER60

Barrel%

184.0

Avg EV

5989.7

Bat Spd

7273.7

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

5027.5

Platoon Splits2024 · 81 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

104

◀◀L

wOBA

322

219

◀◀L

ISO

125

077

◀◀L

BABIP

412

290

◀◀L

28.0%

37.5%

◀◀L

BB%

4.0%

7.1%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	17	ROK	AZL Giants Orange	—	178	146	47	9	2	10	27	39	4	8	6	322	441	616	1.057	295	378	22	15	455	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	145	129	28	3	2	1	10	54	3	1	0	217	289	295	583	78	351	37	7	264	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A	San Jose Giants	—	308	266	74	14	3	18	38	68	3	5	5	278	375	556	931	278	309	22	12	404	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	87	75	19	0	0	3	11	28	1	0	1	253	356	373	730	120	364	32	13	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	230	205	54	10	0	10	22	51	2	0	0	263	341	459	799	195	303	22	10	353	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK	ACL Giants Black	—	27	22	7	2	0	1	4	7	1	0	0	318	444	545	990	227	429	26	15	437	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	45	39	9	3	0	0	6	17	0	1	0	231	333	308	641	77	409	38	13	299	90	-1	+0	+0	+5	+1	0.6
2023	21	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	78	67	14	2	0	4	10	28	1	0	0	209	321	418	738	209	286	36	13	331	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	242	202	46	12	0	11	36	72	0	6	0	228	345	450	795	223	285	30	15	348	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	59	47	8	1	0	1	12	18	0	0	0	170	339	255	594	85	250	31	20	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	81	76	16	5	1	0	5	28	0	0	1	211	259	303	562	92	333	35	6	254	59	-4	-0	-4	+2	+2	-0.5
2024	22	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	384	316	79	9	1	10	65	103	2	4	3	250	381	380	761	130	338	27	17	349	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	555	462	99	21	1	23	85	170	2	10	3	214	339	413	752	199	276	31	15	335	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	INTL	Toros del Este	—	15	12	1	0	0	0	3	8	0	1	0	83	267	83	350		250	53	20	200	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	376	319	90	14	1	17	51	90	2	5	1	282	384	492	877	210	338	24	14	384	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	117	101	33	9	0	10	13	32	2	3	1	327	414	713	1.127	386	383	27	11	475	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	34	30	8	2	0	1	4	7	0	0	0	267	353	433	786	167	318	21	12	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	126	115	25	8	1	0	11	45	0	1	1	217	286	304	590	87	357	36	9	270	69	-5	-0	-4	+6	+3	-0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	17	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Orange	—	178	156	35	6	1	8	17	56	4	8	6	224	316	429	746	205	284	31	10	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	145	131	22	2	1	1	8	67	3	1	0	168	232	221	454	53	304	46	6	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	308	282	62	11	2	14	22	96	3	5	5	220	283	422	705	202	276	31	7	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	—	230	211	45	8	0	7	16	67	2	0	0	213	275	351	626	137	280	29	7	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Black	—	27	24	5	1	0	1	2	10	1	0	0	208	296	375	671	167	317	37	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	45	39	9	3	0	0	6	17	0	1	0	231	333	308	641	77	409	38	13	301	90	-1	+0	+0	+5	+1	0.6
2023	21	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	78	70	13	2	0	3	7	31	1	0	0	186	269	343	612	157	266	40	9	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	242	211	43	10	0	10	27	88	0	6	0	204	294	393	687	190	273	36	11	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	81	76	16	5	1	0	5	28	0	0	1	211	259	303	562	92	333	35	6	256	59	-4	-0	-4	+2	+2	-0.5
2024	22	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	384	336	82	8	1	8	45	114	2	4	3	244	337	345	682	101	342	30	12	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	555	486	89	19	1	18	61	202	2	10	3	183	277	337	614	154	255	36	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	376	334	81	12	1	12	36	108	2	5	1	243	320	392	712	150	310	29	10	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	117	105	28	7	0	8	9	39	2	3	1	267	336	562	898	295	325	33	8	367	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Orange	—	178	156	35	6	1	8	17	56	4	8	6	224	316	429	746	205	290	31	10	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	AZL Giants Orange	—	178	146	47	9	2	10	27	39	4	8	6	322	441	616	1.057	295	378	22	15	455	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	540	493	100	15	5	17	36	195	7	6	6	203	267	357	624	154	291	36	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A RAW	3 teams	—	540	470	121	17	5	22	59	150	7	6	6	257	349	455	804	198	328	28	11	355	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	257	234	51	10	0	8	19	77	3	0	0	218	285	363	648	145	287	30	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	257	227	61	12	0	11	26	58	3	0	0	269	352	467	819	198	314	23	10	362	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA MLE	4 teams	—	424	372	74	17	0	14	47	158	1	7	0	199	290	358	648	159	294	37	11	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA RAW	4 teams	—	424	355	77	18	0	16	64	135	1	7	0	217	338	403	741	186	293	32	15	332	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	465	412	98	13	2	8	50	142	2	4	4	238	323	337	661	100	342	31	11	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	465	392	95	14	2	10	70	131	2	4	4	242	360	365	725	122	337	28	15	333	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	570	499	90	19	1	18	63	207	2	11	3	180	275	331	605	150	257	36	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	570	474	100	21	1	23	88	178	2	11	3	211	337	405	742	194	276	31	15	332	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	527	469	115	20	1	21	49	157	4	8	2	245	322	426	748	181	318	30	9	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	527	450	131	25	1	28	68	129	4	8	2	291	389	538	927	247	346	24	13	402	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK MLE	AZL Giants Orange	—	178	155	35	6	1	8	17	56	4	8	6	226	316	432	749	206	284	31	10	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	540	492	100	15	5	17	36	195	7	6	6	203	267	358	625	154	285	36	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	257	233	51	10	0	8	19	77	3	0	0	219	285	365	650	146	284	30	7	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA MLE	4 teams	—	424	373	74	17	0	14	47	158	1	7	0	198	290	357	647	158	288	37	11	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	465	410	98	13	2	8	50	142	2	4	4	239	323	339	662	100	340	31	11	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	570	500	90	19	1	18	63	207	2	11	3	180	275	330	605	150	255	36	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	527	469	115	20	1	21	49	157	4	8	2	245	322	426	748	181	314	30	9	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	465	410	98	13	2	8	50	142	2	4	4	239	323	339	662	100	340	31	11	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	570	500	90	19	1	18	63	207	2	11	3	180	275	330	605	150	255	36	11	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	527	469	115	20	1	21	49	157	4	8	2	245	322	426	748	181	314	30	9	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYY	10%	380	337	76	14	1	13	38	119	2	5	1	224	308	385	693	161	302	31	10	310	96	-2	+1	-2	+1	+8	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYY	10%	16	14	4	1	0	1	2	5	0	0	0	226	310	394	704	168	302	31	12	314	96	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	42%	525	464	104	19	1	18	53	162	3	7	2	227	310	393	703	166	301	31	10	313	98	-1	+1	-2	+2	+11	1.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	511	452	102	18	1	18	51	156	3	7	2	227	310	391	701	165	300	31	10	313	98	-1	+1	-2	+2	+11	1.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYY	61%	496	441	99	18	1	17	49	151	3	5	2	226	308	387	695	162	298	30	10	310	96	-2	+0	-3	+2	+11	0.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYY	62%	483	430	96	17	1	16	47	146	3	3	1	224	306	382	688	158	296	30	10	307	94	-3	+0	-4	+2	+10	0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYY	63%	470	418	93	17	1	15	46	142	3	2	1	222	303	375	678	153	294	30	10	303	91	-5	+0	-4	+2	+10	0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	42%	223	198	45	8	1	8	22	69	1	3	1	229	312	403	715	174	302	31	10	318	98	-0	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	279	247	56	10	1	10	28	85	2	4	1	229	311	401	712	172	301	30	10	317	98	-1	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYY	61%	302	267	61	11	1	11	30	92	2	3	1	228	310	397	707	169	299	30	10	315	96	-1	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYY	62%	301	266	61	11	1	11	30	91	2	2	1	226	308	391	699	165	297	30	10	311	94	-2	+0	-2	+1	+7	0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYY	63%	297	264	59	10	1	10	29	90	2	1	1	224	305	384	688	160	294	30	10	307	91	-3	-0	-3	+1	+6	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1528	1357	307	58	6	50	150	472	9	14	6	226	307	388	696	162	305	31	10	310	89	-12	+0	-13	+11	+33	2.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	131	25	3	21	64	201	4	6	3	227	309	390	698	163	307	31	10	310	89	-5	+0	-5	+5	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	5601	4977	1088	195	15	183	543	1798	39	70	30	219	300	374	675	156	299	32	10	300	89	-18	+1	-20	+16	+60	4.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	127	23	2	21	63	209	5	8	3	220	302	375	678	156	301	32	10	300	89	-4	+0	-5	+4	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 376 PAwOBA .378 → .313 (−65)K% 23.9% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.94%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	28.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.56%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.033	9.67%
HBP% /PA	0.53%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.52%
Singles /BIP	25.33%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.995	×1.033	24.20%
Doubles /BIP	6.11%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.995	×1.033	5.21%
Triples /BIP	0.44%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.995	×1.033	0.44%
Home runs /BIP	7.42%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.033	5.37%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.

Result: wOBA .378 → .313; ISO .210 → .160; BABIP .338 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASomerset Patriots · 117 PAwOBA .465 → .367 (−98)K% 27.4% → 33.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.35%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	33.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.998	7.76%
HBP% /PA	1.71%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	1.45%
Singles /BIP	20.29%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.950	×0.998	18.66%
Doubles /BIP	13.04%	÷1.000	×0.860	×0.950	×0.998	10.64%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.950	×0.950	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	14.49%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.998	11.28%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .465 → .367; ISO .386 → .296; BABIP .383 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASacramento River Cats · 555 PAwOBA .330 → .272 (−59)K% 30.6% → 36.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.63%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	36.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.32%	÷1.011	×0.690	—	×1.048	10.96%
HBP% /PA	0.36%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.35%
Singles /BIP	18.49%	÷1.030	×0.930	×1.000	×1.048	17.50%
Doubles /BIP	7.19%	÷0.959	×0.830	×1.000	×1.048	6.52%
Triples /BIP	0.34%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.000	×1.048	0.39%
Home runs /BIP	7.88%	÷0.938	×0.700	—	×1.048	6.16%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 102, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .330 → .272; ISO .199 → .162; BABIP .276 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 384 PAwOBA .341 → .305 (−36)K% 26.8% → 29.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.82%	÷1.081	×1.200	—	—	29.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.67%	÷1.032	×0.690	—	×1.050	11.71%
HBP% /PA	0.52%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.51%
Singles /BIP	27.70%	÷0.976	×0.930	×1.050	×1.050	29.10%
Doubles /BIP	4.23%	÷1.052	×0.830	×1.050	×1.050	3.68%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷1.091	×0.970	×1.050	×1.050	0.46%
Home runs /BIP	4.69%	÷1.010	×0.700	—	×1.050	3.42%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 118, K 116, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .341 → .305; ISO .130 → .105; BABIP .338 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 242 PAwOBA .345 → .297 (−48)K% 29.8% → 36.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.75%	÷0.995	×1.220	—	—	36.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.88%	÷0.985	×0.700	—	×1.042	11.02%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	17.69%	÷0.978	×0.970	×0.982	×1.042	17.96%
Doubles /BIP	9.23%	÷1.003	×0.860	×0.982	×1.042	8.10%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.982	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.46%	÷0.906	×0.780	—	×1.042	7.59%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .345 → .297; ISO .223 → .194; BABIP .285 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASacramento River Cats · 78 PAwOBA .323 → .261 (−61)K% 35.9% → 39.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.90%	÷1.087	×1.200	—	—	39.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.82%	÷0.981	×0.690	—	×1.050	9.47%
HBP% /PA	1.28%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.27%
Singles /BIP	20.51%	÷0.992	×0.930	—	×1.050	20.19%
Doubles /BIP	5.13%	÷0.992	×0.830	—	×1.050	4.51%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.956	×0.970	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.26%	÷1.057	×0.700	—	×1.050	7.13%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 117, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .323 → .261; ISO .209 → .150; BABIP .286 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Eugene Emeralds · 230 PAwOBA .345 → .280 (−65)K% 22.2% → 29.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.17%	÷1.029	×1.350	—	—	29.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.57%	÷0.978	×0.710	—	×1.027	7.13%
HBP% /PA	0.87%	—	×0.810	—	×1.027	0.72%
Singles /BIP	22.08%	÷0.989	×0.910	×1.005	×1.027	20.97%
Doubles /BIP	6.49%	÷0.953	×0.830	×1.005	×1.027	5.84%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.930	×0.820	×1.005	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.49%	÷1.120	×0.830	—	×1.027	4.94%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 86, K 106, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .345 → .280; ISO .195 → .146; BABIP .303 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Giants Black · 27 PAwOBA .426 → .286 (−140)K% 25.9% → 37.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.93%	÷1.002	×1.440	—	—	37.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.81%	÷0.983	×0.620	—	×0.985	9.20%
HBP% /PA	3.70%	—	×0.720	—	×0.985	2.63%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷1.081	×0.820	—	×0.985	19.92%
Doubles /BIP	13.33%	÷0.921	×0.720	—	×0.985	10.27%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.940	×0.720	—	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.67%	÷1.073	×0.780	—	×0.985	4.77%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 116, 2B 84, 3B 88, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .426 → .286; ISO .227 → .154; BABIP .429 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Greene'92-'00 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,183 PA	3.3	2,183	86	17	225*	313*	415*	-4	+5	5.9	6.5
/162	664	26	5	-1.1	+1.5	1.8	pk7: 7
#2Russ Davis'94-'01 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,176 PA	3.3	2,176	84	16	244*	296*	428*	+6	-9	5.0	5.2
/162	664	26	5	+1.9	-2.8	1.5	pk7: 6
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.3	1,498	48	13	225	302	382	-8	-8	2.2	2.2
/162	664	21	6	-3.6	-3.5	1.0	pk7: 2
#5Rick Schu'84-'96 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,729 PA	2.6	1,729	41	17	244*	309*	411*	+1	-22	1.4	1.8
/162	664	16	7	+0.2	-8.4	0.5	pk7: 2
#6Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Marco Luciano (OGILVIE)	25	35	60	50	60	222/305/381	159	302	5	2	31%	10%	96	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Drew Ellis 2022 · MLB	26	41→38	53→55	45→40	48	212/303/389	177	276	20	3	30%	9%	96	+1.0	198/288/359	161	255	18	6	28%	10%	84	+0.1	180/274/332	152	226	17	6	28%	10%	70	-0.5
✕Davis Schneider 2024 · MLB	25	44→45	56→55	51→50	53	228/330/428	200	300	23	11	30%	12%	115	+2.4	209/318/382	173	278	20	9	30%	13%	100	+1.3	187/312/348	161	246	20	8	30%	14%	91	+0.4
●Tom Murphy 2016 · MLB	25	39→38	51→65	44→45	37	205/260/367	162	285	19	6	35%	6%	74	-0.5	211/255/381	170	311	19	5	37%	5%	76	-0.4	247/319/462	214	314	30	2	30%	9%	119	+1.2
✕Jake Rogers 2021 · MLB	26	39→40	52→60	49→45	44	206/284/367	161	279	20	5	33%	8%	84	+0.1	234/301/437	203	319	26	7	33%	8%	105	+1.7	216/278/421	205	273	28	2	32%	7%	95	+0.4
✕Michael Chavis 2021 · MLB	25	46	56→60	50→45	41	238/297/424	186	314	25	7	32%	7%	101	+1.4	230/275/393	163	306	21	6	31%	5%	86	+0.3	221/266/377	156	281	18	6	28%	5%	77	-0.2
✕Jerry Sands 2013 · MLB	25	43→46	54→60	47→45	46	228/294/403	175	282	22	5	27%	8%	96	+1.0	217/286/363	146	285	17	3	29%	8%	83	+0.1	232/297/374	143	282	16	2	23%	8%	88	+0.2
✕Clint Frazier 2021 · MLB	26	48→49	54→55	46→50	47	244/316/431	187	306	22	7	27%	8%	110	+2.1	204/297/335	131	293	14	9	32%	10%	82	-0.0	176/275/280	104	266	10	10	34%	10%	60	-0.8
✕Peyton Burdick 2022 · AAA	25	40→34	51→50	45→50	46	202/298/366	164	295	19	9	36%	10%	89	+0.5	184/270/334	150	284	17	12	39%	9%	72	-0.7	166/253/310	144	262	17	13	41%	8%	58	-1.3
✕Rodolfo Castro 2024 · MLB	25	42	50→55	42→50	43	215/281/365	149	285	18	8	30%	7%	82	-0.0	211/277/347	136	276	16	12	29%	7%	76	-0.4	198/265/337	139	251	16	17	27%	7%	68	-0.9
✕Jabari Blash 2015 · AAA	26	38→41	53→60	46→50	43	201/285/373	172	278	21	10	35%	8%	86	+0.3	210/303/398	188	293	24	7	35%	10%	99	+1.2	202/308/391	189	286	24	5	36%	11%	97	+0.8
✕Zack Collins 2020 · MLB	25	41→42	51→50	48→40	50	206/304/368	161	304	18	3	36%	12%	92	+0.7	204/299/355	151	293	16	5	33%	11%	86	+0.3	184/277/316	132	274	14	4	35%	11%	69	-0.5
✕Kevin Padlo 2021 · AAA	25	43→42	51→55	49→50	46	215/299/385	170	307	18	10	34%	9%	93	+0.8	202/267/347	145	281	17	12	33%	8%	72	-0.7	190/260/326	136	259	16	12	32%	8%	63	-0.9
✕Isan Díaz 2021 · MLB	25	44→43	51→55	44→45	44	223/291/382	159	296	18	8	30%	8%	90	+0.6	213/286/370	157	282	19	7	30%	9%	85	+0.2	192/269/361	169	236	25	8	31%	9%	74	-0.2
✕Ryan Strieby 2011 · AAA	25	45	53→60	45→40	46	231/303/403	171	299	21	4	29%	9%	99	+1.2	202/270/334	132	296	16	4	35%	8%	71	-0.8	184/254/308	124	271	16	3	36%	8%	57	-1.6
✕Alexander Canario 2024 · MLB	24	41→36	55→60	52→50	40	215/276/403	188	297	24	13	35%	7%	89	+0.5	220/284/380	160	317	20	10	35%	8%	86	+0.3	208/276/362	155	297	21	9	36%	8%	78	-0.1
✕Christin Stewart 2019 · MLB	25	43→48	54→55	49→45	48	224/300/401	177	279	22	3	28%	9%	97	+1.1	227/295/392	165	289	20	3	27%	8%	93	+0.8	206/284/366	160	277	20	5	32%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Casper Wells 2010 · AA	25	43→44	53→60	49→50	43	222/296/400	178	289	20	13	30%	7%	96	+1.0	228/295/423	195	290	22	9	29%	7%	101	+1.4	226/296/429	204	279	23	7	27%	7%	101	+0.9
✕Wladimir Balentien 2009 · MLB	25	41→48	54→60	44→50	45	221/283/398	177	269	22	9	27%	8%	91	+0.6	233/290/411	178	281	21	9	25%	7%	96	+1.0	236/293/416	180	281	21	10	24%	7%	99	+0.8
✕Travis Demeritte 2020 · MLB	25	42→46	52→55	47→50	42	215/282/387	172	299	19	7	34%	8%	87	+0.4	215/280/380	165	320	20	10	37%	8%	85	+0.2	192/251/345	153	290	20	12	39%	7%	63	-0.6
✕Jorge Bonifacio 2018 · MLB	25	47→51	52→55	46→45	44	241/299/406	166	304	20	4	28%	7%	98	+1.2	220/281/367	147	292	16	5	29%	7%	82	-0.0	197/262/340	144	259	14	5	29%	7%	68	-0.7

Marco Luciano

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps