Marco Luciano — OGILVIE

Marco LucianoOF Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 24 R/R 6'1" / 215 lbs AAA HR +8% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION281 act + 187 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 12197vR 37

AVG/OBP/SLG.221 / .297 / .394

PA187

HR7

K%31

BB%9

BABIP290

ISO173

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 35 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2023-2024

CONTACT35

Whiff%

3412.7%

xwOBA

330.289

POWER60

Barrel%

184.0

Avg EV

5989.7

Bat Spd

7273.7

EYE60

Chase%

9021.8%

SPEED50

Sprint

5027.5

Platoon Splits2024 · 81 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

105

◀◀L

wOBA

322

219

◀◀L

ISO

125

077

◀◀L

BABIP

412

290

◀◀L

28.0%

37.5%

◀◀L

BB%

4.0%

7.1%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.3M
2027	Arb-2	$6M	+1.8	$13M	+$8M
2028	Arb-3	$10M	+2.0	$14M	+$5M
Totals		$17M		$27M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	AZL Giants Orange	—	178	156	33	6	1	7	17	56	4	8	6	212	305	397	703	186	277	31	10	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK	AZL Giants Orange	—	178	146	47	9	2	10	27	39	4	8	6	322	441	616	1.057	295	378	22	15	455	206	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A	3 teams	—	540	497	98	15	4	17	32	195	7	6	6	197	256	346	602	149	280	36	6	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A	3 teams	—	540	470	121	17	5	22	59	150	7	6	6	257	349	455	804	198	328	28	11	355	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+	2 teams	—	257	236	48	10	0	7	17	77	3	0	0	203	266	335	600	131	268	30	7	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+	2 teams	—	257	227	61	12	0	11	26	58	3	0	0	269	352	467	819	198	314	23	10	362	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA	4 teams	—	424	374	74	17	0	17	45	165	1	7	0	198	286	380	665	182	291	39	11	292	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	AA	4 teams	—	424	355	77	18	0	16	64	135	1	7	0	217	338	403	741	186	293	32	15	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA	2 teams	—	465	414	95	13	2	8	48	142	2	4	4	229	312	329	641	99	328	31	10	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AAA	2 teams	—	465	392	95	14	2	10	70	131	2	4	4	242	360	365	725	122	337	28	15	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA	2 teams	—	570	502	84	18	1	20	60	221	2	11	3	167	259	327	586	159	240	39	11	261	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AAA	2 teams	—	570	474	100	21	1	23	88	178	2	11	3	211	337	405	742	194	276	31	15	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	AAA	NYY	—	281	251	61	14	0	14	24	86	3	6	2	243	317	466	783	223	305	31	9	333	113	+4	+0	+0	+3	+8	1.6
YTD	24	AAA	NYY	—	281	240	70	17	0	16	35	69	3	6	2	292	388	562	951	271	342	25	12	410	172	+23	+0	+0	+3	+8	3.5
ROS	24	AAA	NYY	10%	187	167	37	8	0	7	17	58	1	3	1	221	297	394	691	173	291	31	9	309	95	-1	+0	-1	+2	+5	0.5
ROS	24	MLB	NYY	10%	19	17	4	1	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	235	316	471	786	235	293	32	11	308	94	-0	+0	-0	+0	+1	0.0
FULL	24	AAA	NYY	—	300	268	65	15	0	15	26	92	3	6	2	243	316	466	783	224	305	31	9	331	112	+4	+0	-0	+3	+8	1.6
TOT	24	AAA	NYY	—	468	418	98	22	0	21	41	144	4	9	3	234	309	437	746	203	299	31	9	323	106	+3	+1	-1	+5	+13	2.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	NYY	35%	587	525	118	24	1	22	53	180	4	9	3	225	301	400	701	175	293	31	9	312	97	-2	+1	-5	+6	+17	1.7
2028	26	MLB	NYY	46%	576	515	116	23	1	22	52	173	4	9	3	225	301	402	703	177	293	30	9	316	100	+0	+1	-4	+6	+16	1.9
2029	27	MLB	NYY	50%	564	503	115	23	1	22	52	168	4	9	3	229	306	410	715	181	293	30	9	317	101	+0	+1	-4	+6	+16	1.9
2030	28	MLB	NYY	52%	553	493	112	22	1	21	51	164	4	8	2	227	305	404	708	176	292	30	9	316	100	-0	+1	-5	+6	+16	1.8
2031	29	MLB	NYY	52%	542	483	109	22	1	20	50	162	4	7	2	226	304	400	703	174	291	30	9	314	98	-1	+1	-6	+6	+15	1.6
2032	30	MLB	NYY	52%	531	473	106	21	1	20	49	160	4	6	2	224	302	400	702	175	290	30	9	311	96	-2	+0	-6	+6	+15	1.3
2033	31	MLB	NYY	52%	520	463	103	20	1	19	48	158	4	6	2	222	301	393	694	171	287	30	9	307	93	-4	+0	-7	+6	+15	1.0
2034	32	MLB	NYY	56%	510	454	99	19	1	18	47	157	4	5	1	218	297	383	680	165	284	31	9	301	89	-6	+1	-7	+5	+14	0.7
2035	33	MLB	NYY	59%	440	393	84	16	1	15	41	138	3	3	1	214	293	374	667	160	279	31	9	294	83	-8	+0	-8	+5	+12	0.2
2027	25	MLB	NYY	35%	204	183	41	8	0	8	18	62	1	3	1	224	297	399	696	175	295	30	9	311	96	-1	+0	-2	+2	+6	0.6
2028	26	MLB	NYY	46%	267	239	56	11	1	11	24	80	2	4	1	234	309	427	736	192	295	30	9	315	99	-0	+0	-2	+3	+8	0.9
2029	27	MLB	NYY	50%	283	253	59	12	1	11	26	84	2	4	1	233	310	419	729	186	295	30	9	315	99	-0	+0	-2	+3	+8	0.9
2030	28	MLB	NYY	52%	288	257	59	12	1	11	27	85	2	4	1	230	308	412	720	183	294	30	9	314	99	-0	+0	-3	+3	+8	0.9
2031	29	MLB	NYY	52%	281	251	57	11	1	11	26	84	2	4	1	227	305	410	715	183	293	30	9	312	97	-1	+0	-3	+3	+8	0.8
2032	30	MLB	NYY	52%	274	244	55	11	0	11	26	83	2	3	1	225	305	406	711	180	292	30	9	309	95	-2	+0	-3	+3	+8	0.6
2033	31	MLB	NYY	52%	268	239	53	11	0	10	25	82	2	3	1	222	301	393	694	172	289	31	9	305	92	-2	+0	-3	+3	+8	0.5
2034	32	MLB	NYY	56%	285	255	55	11	0	10	26	88	2	3	1	216	293	376	670	161	286	31	9	300	88	-4	+0	-4	+3	+8	0.3
2035	33	MLB	NYY	59%	258	230	48	9	0	9	24	81	2	2	1	209	289	365	654	157	281	31	9	293	82	-5	+0	-4	+3	+7	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2553	2283	512	105	5	93	235	780	17	31	10	224	301	397	698	173	295	31	9	306	93	-21	+2	-31	+32	+72	5.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	131	27	1	24	60	199	4	8	3	225	302	399	701	174	297	31	9	306	93	-5	+0	-8	+8	+18	1.4
Career	—			—	7444	6648	1431	277	17	262	679	2374	55	101	39	215	293	380	674	165	288	32	9	299	87	-111	+5	-57	+76	+211	12.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	124	24	1	23	59	207	5	9	3	214	292	378	670	164	285	32	9	299	87	-10	+1	-5	+7	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	AZL Giants Orange	—	178	146	47	9	2	10	27	39	4	8	6	322	441	616	1.057	295	378	22	15	455	206	+21	-1	—	—	+5	2.6
2021	19	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	145	129	28	3	2	1	10	54	3	1	0	217	289	295	583	78	351	37	7	264	60	-7	+0	—	—	+4	-0.2
2021	19	A	San Jose Giants	—	308	266	74	14	3	18	38	68	3	5	5	278	375	556	931	278	309	22	12	404	167	+23	-1	—	—	+9	3.2
2021	19	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	87	75	19	0	0	3	11	28	1	0	1	253	356	373	730	120	364	32	13	335	114	+1	-0	—	—	+2	0.4
2022	20	A+	Eugene Emeralds	—	230	205	54	10	0	10	22	51	2	0	0	263	341	459	799	195	303	22	10	353	128	+7	+0	—	—	+7	1.4
2022	20	ROK	ACL Giants Black	—	27	22	7	2	0	1	4	7	1	0	0	318	444	545	990	227	429	26	15	437	192	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2023	21	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	45	39	9	3	0	0	6	17	0	1	0	231	333	308	641	77	409	38	13	299	87	-1	+0	+0	+5	+1	0.6
2023	21	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	78	67	14	2	0	4	10	28	1	0	0	209	321	418	738	209	286	36	13	331	112	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2023	21	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	242	202	46	12	0	11	36	72	0	6	0	228	345	450	795	223	285	30	15	348	125	+7	+1	—	—	+7	1.5
2023	21	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	59	47	8	1	0	1	12	18	0	0	0	170	339	255	594	85	250	31	20	291	81	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
2024	22	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	81	76	16	5	1	0	5	28	0	0	1	211	259	303	562	92	333	35	6	254	53	-4	-0	-4	+2	+2	-0.5
2024	22	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	384	316	79	9	1	10	65	103	2	4	3	250	381	380	761	130	338	27	17	349	126	+11	-0	—	—	+11	2.2
2025	23	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	555	462	99	21	1	23	85	170	2	10	3	214	339	413	752	199	276	31	15	335	115	+9	+1	—	—	+16	2.6
2025	23	INTL	Toros del Este	—	15	12	1	0	0	0	3	8	0	1	0	83	267	83	350		250	53	20	200	11	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	126	115	25	8	1	0	11	45	0	1	1	217	286	304	590	87	357	36	9	270	65	-5	-0	-4	+6	+4	0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Scott Hairstonlast yr '14 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,624 PA	9	2,624	106	36	242	297	444	-18	-16	6.0	6.6
	/162	664	27	9	242	297	444	-4.5	-4.1	1.5	pk7: 7
#2Ricky Ledeelast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,897 PA	7	1,897	52	21	239	323	404	-8	-6	5.0	5.0
	/162	664	18	7	239	323	404	-2.9	-2.1	1.7	pk7: 5
#3Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,514	90	30	224	297	394	-13	-12	3.7	3.8
	/162	664	24	8	224	297	394	-3.5	-3.1	1.0	pk7: 4
#6John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	6	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
	/162	664	24	7	234	298	417	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Marco Luciano (OGILVIE)	24	35	60	50	60	234/309/437	203	299	21	9	31%	9%	106	+2.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Davis Schneider 2023 · AAA	24	40→43	51→60	53→50	46	206/288/365	158	297	19	13	35%	10%	82	+0.5	218/317/412	194	287	24	10	31%	12%	107	+2.2	212/321/414	202	270	25	9	30%	13%	108	+1.7
●Christopher Morel 2023 · MLB	24	42→46	53→60	49→50	41	219/283/394	175	305	21	15	34%	8%	88	+0.9	225/299/428	203	289	27	11	31%	9%	104	+2.0	219/298/426	206	274	28	10	30%	9%	99	+1.4
✕Jerry Sands 2013 · MLB	25	40→46	52→60	47→45	45	213/280/376	163	269	21	5	29%	8%	82	+0.5	209/277/347	138	281	16	3	30%	8%	73	-0.1	238/300/412	174	297	20	3	26%	8%	96	+0.8
✕Drew Robinson 2016 · AAA	24	36→40	50→55	48→50	45	190/268/346	156	268	17	12	35%	9%	69	-0.4	213/285/388	175	304	20	12	35%	9%	87	+0.8	213/286/393	179	309	20	12	36%	9%	85	+0.5
✕Wladimir Balentien 2008 · AAA	24	42→45	52→55	49→50	42	222/279/388	166	288	21	12	30%	7%	84	+0.6	223/282/394	171	274	20	8	26%	7%	88	+0.9	219/280/398	179	263	21	7	25%	7%	86	+0.6
✕Taylor Trammell 2022 · MLB	24	41→46	50→55	47→55	44	210/284/359	150	288	18	12	33%	8%	79	+0.3	220/302/395	175	297	21	18	31%	10%	96	+1.5	208/300/381	173	279	21	23	32%	11%	90	+0.6
✕Clint Frazier 2019 · MLB	24	46→45	50→55	52→50	43	232/291/395	163	302	16	11	28%	7%	91	+1.1	230/302/399	169	295	19	7	27%	8%	97	+1.5	219/303/387	168	279	19	5	27%	9%	91	+0.6
●Jack Suwinski 2022 · AA	24	40→42	53→60	45→50	44	207/286/379	172	303	21	9	37%	9%	85	+0.7	211/298/405	194	287	25	11	34%	10%	98	+1.6	201/292/394	193	265	26	11	33%	10%	89	+0.8
✕Rodolfo Castro 2023 · MLB	24	40	53→55	47→50	41	215/272/390	175	275	22	10	30%	6%	82	+0.5	211/275/356	145	278	18	9	30%	7%	75	-0.0	201/269/340	139	259	18	12	29%	7%	66	-0.5
✕Jabari Blash 2014 · AA	25	39→41	49→60	46→50	44	197/283/346	148	301	17	11	38%	10%	76	+0.1	205/290/392	187	285	24	9	35%	9%	92	+1.2	199/309/387	188	287	24	5	36%	12%	95	+1.0
✕Aaron Luna 2011 · AAA	24	43→44	49→50	50→45	49	217/325/371	154	268	16	7	25%	9%	101	+1.8	232/318/376	144	295	16	9	26%	8%	98	+1.6	231/316/372	142	294	19	8	27%	7%	96	+0.7
✕Joe Benson 2013 · MLB	25	41→48	52→60	50	42	215/281/389	174	287	19	15	32%	7%	85	+0.7	209/274/331	122	288	11	13	30%	7%	67	-0.5	207/277/319	112	282	9	13	28%	7%	64	-0.5
✕Jabari Henry 2016 · AA	25	36→40	51→55	46→45	46	191/276/352	161	267	19	7	34%	10%	75	-0.0	196/264/341	145	281	18	6	35%	7%	66	-0.6	174/240/314	140	235	21	2	35%	6%	46	-1.3
✕Brandon Wood 2009 · MLB	24	40→45	55→65	49→50	40	218/271/401	183	278	24	11	31%	6%	85	+0.7	207/253/352	145	262	19	5	28%	5%	64	-0.8	195/240/323	128	246	17	1	28%	5%	48	-1.1
●Spencer Steer 2022 · AA	24	40→50	52→55	48→50	45	213/285/380	166	264	21	8	28%	8%	85	+0.7	232/310/400	168	281	19	10	24%	9%	101	+1.8	238/325/410	172	280	19	15	21%	10%	107	+2.4
●JJ Bleday 2023 · MLB	25	33→43	50→60	46→45	51	182/277/334	152	239	17	6	31%	11%	71	-0.3	222/310/404	182	267	21	6	24%	11%	102	+1.8	242/327/449	207	278	24	4	22%	11%	116	+2.4
✕Peyton Burdick 2022 · AAA	25	38→32	52→55	45→50	45	197/293/364	167	297	20	9	38%	10%	85	+0.7	185/270/345	160	284	19	12	39%	9%	71	-0.3	169/254/325	157	260	19	13	41%	8%	56	-0.9
●Andrew Navigato 2022 · AA	24	41→38	45→60	46→50	44	204/280/325	122	284	12	13	31%	8%	69	-0.4	220/279/399	179	271	22	14	27%	6%	88	+0.9	220/277/428	209	258	27	17	27%	5%	92	+0.8
✕Kevin Padlo 2021 · AAA	25	42→40	52→55	49→50	45	211/295/384	173	303	20	10	35%	9%	91	+1.1	201/264/359	158	276	19	12	33%	7%	71	-0.3	187/255/336	149	252	18	12	33%	8%	59	-0.8
●Jon Singleton 2016 · MLB	24	36→46	51→55	43→45	51	194/286/354	160	257	19	4	32%	11%	79	+0.3	180/274/327	147	245	18	4	33%	11%	68	-0.5	209/309/391	182	267	24	1	30%	13%	96	+1.2