Connor Prielipp

P Minnesota Twins

Age 26 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.7 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	9	9	23	2.70	0.49	45.1%	7.7%	—	K 32.0% · BB 10.5% · FIP 1.72
2025	24	MIX2 levels	24	23	83	4.03	2.95	27.0%	8.5%	—	K 22.2% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.51
2026	25	MIX2 levels	29	26	144	4.49	3.43	25.2%	8.7%	3.5	K 24.6% · BB 8.6% · FIP 3.47
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIN	17	17	101	4.00	3.90	25.4%	8.7%	1.8
2028PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBMIN	16	16	94	3.97	3.95	25.4%	8.7%	1.6
2029PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBMIN	14	14	87	4.01	4.03	25.3%	8.9%	1.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.924First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$3M2031Arb-2$3M2032Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo65

K%59

xwOBA vs56

Form2.36 ERA (proj 4.00) · K 21.0% (proj 25.4%) · BB 4.8% (proj 8.7%) · last 60d · 27 IP through Oct 27

CompsNoah Cameron (age 25) · Adam Conley (age 26) · Mitch Farris (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8997vR 105

ERA4.00

FIP3.90

K%25.4%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%16.8%

Proj IP107

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$46M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6595.6

Whiff%

p3823.6%

p5923.9%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.924 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$14M	+$14M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$12M	+$11M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$9M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+1.1	$7M	+$5M
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.1M
2032	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$47M	+$39M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	7	32	7	4	0	100%	3.3	21.9%	12.5%	9.4%	0.0%	6.75	2.84	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	2	7	32	7	4	0	100%	3.3	21.9%	12.5%	9.4%	0.0%	6.75	2.80	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	9	23	91	41	7	0	100%	2.6	32.0%	10.5%	21.5%	0.0%	2.70	1.72	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	9	23	91	41	7	0	100%	2.6	32.0%	10.5%	21.5%	0.0%	2.70	1.72	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	9	23	91	41	7	0	100%	2.6	45.1%	7.7%	37.4%	0.0%	2.70	0.49	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	83	363	98	31	7	96%	3.4	22.2%	8.7%	13.5%	2.2%	4.03	3.51	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	83	363	98	31	7	96%	3.4	22.2%	8.7%	13.5%	2.2%	4.03	3.51	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	83	363	98	31	7	96%	3.4	27.0%	8.5%	18.5%	1.9%	4.03	2.95	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	26	144	608	153	53	15	90%	5.0	24.6%	8.6%	16.0%	2.5%	4.49	3.47	+3.4
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	26	144	608	153	53	15	90%	5.0	24.6%	8.6%	16.0%	2.5%	4.49	3.47	+3.4
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	26	144	608	153	53	15	90%	5.0	25.2%	8.7%	16.4%	2.5%	4.49	3.43	+3.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			24	22	126	535	128	44	14	92%	5.2	23.9%	8.2%	15.7%	2.6%	4.87	3.56	+2.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIN	17	17	101	426	108	37	11	100%	5.9	25.4%	8.7%	16.8%	2.7%	4.00	3.90	+1.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	99	418	106	36	11	100%	6.2	25.4%	8.7%	16.7%	2.7%	3.96	3.94	+1.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	91	385	97	34	11	100%	6.1	25.3%	8.9%	16.4%	2.8%	4.00	4.02	+1.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIN	14	14	81	342	85	31	10	100%	5.8	24.7%	9.1%	15.6%	3.0%	4.11	4.18	+1.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIN	12	12	69	293	70	28	9	100%	5.8	24.0%	9.4%	14.6%	3.2%	4.28	4.39	+0.8
2032	31	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	56	237	55	23	8	100%	6.2	23.2%	9.8%	13.5%	3.4%	4.48	4.62	+0.5
2033	32	MLB MLE	MIN	7	7	42	179	40	18	7	100%	6.1	22.4%	10.2%	12.3%	3.6%	4.72	4.87	+0.3
2034	33	MLB MLE	MIN	5	5	29	124	27	13	5	100%	5.9	21.6%	10.6%	11.0%	3.9%	4.98	5.15	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	94	397	101	35	11	100%	5.9	25.4%	8.7%	16.7%	2.7%	3.97	3.95	+1.6
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	87	367	93	33	10	100%	6.2	25.3%	8.9%	16.4%	2.8%	4.01	4.03	+1.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	77	325	80	30	10	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.1%	15.6%	3.0%	4.12	4.19	+1.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	66	279	67	26	9	100%	6.0	24.0%	9.4%	14.6%	3.2%	4.29	4.40	+0.8
2032	31	MLB CTX	MIN	9	9	53	224	52	22	8	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.8%	13.5%	3.4%	4.49	4.63	+0.5
2033	32	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	40	169	38	17	6	100%	5.7	22.4%	10.2%	12.3%	3.7%	4.73	4.88	+0.2
2034	33	MLB CTX	MIN	5	5	28	118	26	13	5	100%	5.6	21.6%	10.6%	11.0%	3.9%	4.99	5.16	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	96	571	2414	584	219	72	98%	5.8	24.2%	9.1%	15.2%	3.0%	4.38	3.85	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	205	77	25	98%	5.8	24.2%	9.1%	15.2%	3.0%	4.38	3.85	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		64	60	257	1094	266	97	23	94%	4.0	24.3%	8.9%	15.5%	2.1%	4.24	3.32	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	47	200	851	207	76	18	94%	4.0	24.3%	8.9%	15.5%	2.1%	4.24	3.32	+3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 19 IPFIP 2.52 → 2.85 (+0.32)K% 34.2% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.25%	—	×0.860	29.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.33%	—	×0.900	11.10%
HR / BF /BF	1.37%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.51%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 2.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 62 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.42 (+0.74)K% 27.0% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.04%	—	×0.810	21.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.100	7.33%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷0.986	×1.200	2.25%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASt. Paul Saints · 21 IPFIP 3.78 → 3.78 (−0.00)K% 26.9% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.88%	—	×0.860	23.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.98%	—	×0.900	12.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.15%	÷1.253	×1.100	1.89%

Result: FIP 3.78 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 19 IPFIP 0.74 → 1.72 (+0.98)K% 41.6% → 32.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.56%	—	×0.770	32.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.150	10.45%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.191	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 138).

Result: FIP 0.74 → 1.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Prielipp (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.04	25.2%	16.3%	271	+0.14	—	—	—
Noah Cameron L 2024 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP	3.44	23.1%	7.0%	2.6%	.319	4.07	21.2%	13.6%	348	+0.63	2.96	644	68
Adam Conley L 2016 · 3.79 FIP	26	SP	3.79	21.2%	9.4%	2.3%	.286	4.76	16.6%	8.1%	316	+0.97	3.55	674	67
Mitch Farris L 2024 · 3.45 FIP	23	SP-	3.45	23.3%	10.7%	1.8%	.304	4.33	22.7%	11.2%	222	+0.88	3.45	327	67
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	67
Nick Lodolo L 2024 · 3.30 FIP	26	SP	3.30	24.7%	7.5%	2.4%	.274	4.02	21.4%	14.7%	265	+0.72	1.54	562	65
John Means L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	26	SP	4.04	19.0%	6.0%	3.3%	.253	4.42	23.0%	18.7%	190	+0.38	3.56	1,027	64
Ben Shields L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	25	SP-	3.23	25.3%	8.2%	2.2%	.273	3.02	23.5%	13.3%	43	-0.21	3.02	147	64
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	1,022	62
Jonathan Sánchez L 2009 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP	3.94	24.9%	11.7%	2.7%	.269	4.30	22.5%	9.6%	359	+0.36	3.65	895	62
Quinn Mathews L 2024 · 2.75 FIP	23	SP	2.75	27.9%	9.2%	1.5%	.267	4.31	23.1%	9.7%	242	+1.56	2.75	386	61
Adam Morgan L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	26	SP	4.10	19.9%	5.2%	3.7%	.315	3.66	24.3%	16.6%	151	-0.44	3.45	522	61
David Peterson L 2022 · 3.23 FIP	26	SP-	3.23	27.2%	10.0%	2.1%	.331	3.62	21.9%	12.4%	438	+0.39	2.81	1,078	61
Andrew Alvarez L 2024 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP	4.29	17.0%	9.2%	2.6%	.286	3.85	21.8%	12.0%	293	-0.44	3.39	639	61
Justin Wrobleski L 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SP	4.13	20.2%	8.4%	3.0%	.301	3.78	21.6%	15.5%	258	-0.35	0.98	508	61
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	60
Brandyn Garcia L 2024 · 3.27 FIP	24	SP	3.27	21.2%	10.7%	1.1%	.289	3.27	26.9%	17.0%	122	+0.00	2.44	238	60
Roenis Elías L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	26	SP	4.32	17.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.299	3.98	17.7%	8.3%	251	-0.34	3.15	728	60
Zack Thompson L 2024 · 4.64 FIP	26	SP	4.64	23.7%	12.2%	3.6%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.03	402	60
Héctor Santiago L 2014 · 4.07 FIP	26	SP-	4.07	19.9%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	4.96	19.1%	9.3%	457	+0.89	4.07	1,059	59
Kyle Hart L 2019 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP	3.68	18.7%	8.7%	1.9%	.275	5.13	17.3%	6.7%	200	+1.45	3.60	886	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	78	24.4%	9.0%	1.14	4.31
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
John Henry Johnson ('78-'87, 6 WAR*)	3.0	75	24.6%*	9.6%*	1.15*	4.15*
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Juan Nicasio ('20)	3.6	80	21.3%	8.3%	1.04	4.71
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Shane Greene ('23)	2.4	59	21.7%	8.6%	1.12	4.50