Connor Prielipp — OGILVIE

Connor Prielipp P Minnesota Twins

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION132 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8795vR 103

ERA3.60

FIP3.60

K%24.4%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%15.5%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 143 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$27M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6565

CTRL4550

CMD4550

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6595.6

Whiff%

p3823.6%

p6024.0%

xwOBA vs

p500.312

FB (42%)

SI (15%)

CU (18%)

CH (10%)

SL (31%)

CT-0.8

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.7M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$11M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+1.3	$8M	+$5M
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+1.1	$6M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$9M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$14M		$39M	+$27M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	7	32	7	4	0	100%	3.3	21.9%	12.5%	9.4%	0.0%	6.75	2.84	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	2	7	32	7	4	0	100%	3.3	21.9%	12.5%	9.4%	0.0%	6.75	2.84	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	2	7	32	7	4	0	100%	3.3	21.9%	12.5%	9.4%	0.0%	6.75	2.80	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	9	23	91	41	7	0	100%	2.6	32.0%	10.5%	21.5%	0.0%	2.70	1.72	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	9	23	91	41	7	0	100%	2.6	32.0%	10.5%	21.5%	0.0%	2.70	1.72	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	9	23	91	41	7	0	100%	2.6	45.1%	7.7%	37.4%	0.0%	2.70	0.49	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	83	363	98	31	7	96%	3.4	22.0%	8.7%	13.3%	2.2%	4.03	3.53	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	83	363	98	31	7	96%	3.4	22.0%	8.7%	13.3%	2.2%	4.03	3.53	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	83	363	98	31	7	96%	3.4	27.0%	8.5%	18.5%	1.9%	4.03	2.95	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			22	20	113	488	117	40	14	91%	5.2	24.0%	8.2%	15.8%	2.9%	5.24	3.70	+1.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	27	24	132	561	142	49	15	89%	4.9	24.6%	8.6%	16.0%	2.7%	4.77	3.58	+2.1
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	27	24	132	561	142	49	15	89%	4.9	24.6%	8.6%	16.0%	2.7%	4.77	3.58	+2.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	MIN	5	4	19	73	25	9	1	80%	3.7	34.2%	12.3%	21.9%	1.4%	1.93	2.52	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	MIN	22	20	113	488	117	40	14	91%	5.1	24.0%	8.2%	15.8%	2.9%	5.24	3.69	+1.7
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	MIN	22	20	113	488	117	40	14	91%	5.1	24.0%	8.2%	15.8%	2.9%	5.24	3.69	+1.7
ROS	25	MLB MLE	MIN	2	2	11	47	12	4	1	100%	5.6	24.4%	8.9%	15.5%	2.6%	3.60	3.60	+0.2
ROS	25	MLB CTX	MIN	2	2	11	46	11	4	1	100%	5.5	24.4%	8.9%	15.5%	2.6%	3.61	3.61	+0.2
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	143	608	154	53	16	—	—	25.2%	8.7%	16.5%	2.7%	4.68	3.58	+2.3
FULL	25	MLB A+C	MIN	—	—	125	526	154	53	16	—	—	29.2%	10.1%	19.1%	3.1%	5.38	3.61	+2.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIN	24	24	141	597	150	51	16	100%	5.9	25.1%	8.6%	16.4%	2.7%	4.00	3.96	+1.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIN	24	24	143	605	152	53	17	100%	6.0	25.1%	8.7%	16.4%	2.8%	4.00	4.00	+1.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIN	24	24	143	605	151	53	17	100%	6.0	24.9%	8.8%	16.1%	2.9%	4.05	4.08	+1.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIN	23	23	137	578	143	52	18	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.1%	15.6%	3.0%	4.15	4.21	+1.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIN	21	21	129	543	132	51	18	100%	6.1	24.3%	9.4%	15.0%	3.2%	4.29	4.39	+0.8
2032	31	MLB MLE	MIN	20	20	120	506	121	49	18	100%	6.0	23.9%	9.7%	14.2%	3.5%	4.47	4.59	+0.4
2033	32	MLB MLE	MIN	18	18	111	468	110	47	17	100%	6.2	23.5%	10.1%	13.4%	3.7%	4.68	4.82	+0.1
2034	33	MLB MLE	MIN	17	17	102	430	99	45	17	100%	6.0	23.0%	10.6%	12.4%	4.0%	4.91	5.07	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIN	22	22	134	566	142	49	16	100%	6.1	25.1%	8.6%	16.4%	2.8%	4.01	3.97	+1.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIN	23	23	136	574	144	50	16	100%	5.9	25.1%	8.7%	16.4%	2.8%	4.01	4.01	+1.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIN	23	23	136	574	143	51	17	100%	5.9	24.9%	8.8%	16.1%	2.9%	4.06	4.09	+1.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIN	22	22	130	549	136	50	17	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.1%	15.6%	3.1%	4.16	4.22	+1.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIN	20	20	122	515	125	48	17	100%	6.1	24.3%	9.4%	15.0%	3.3%	4.30	4.40	+0.7
2032	31	MLB CTX	MIN	19	19	114	481	115	47	17	100%	6.0	23.9%	9.7%	14.2%	3.5%	4.48	4.60	+0.4
2033	32	MLB CTX	MIN	18	18	105	443	104	45	17	100%	5.8	23.5%	10.1%	13.4%	3.7%	4.69	4.83	+0.1
2034	33	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	97	410	94	43	16	100%	6.1	23.0%	10.6%	12.4%	4.0%	4.92	5.08	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		186	184	1099	4649	1132	427	147	99%	5.9	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	3.2%	4.38	3.94	+12.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	206	78	27	99%	5.9	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	3.2%	4.38	3.94	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		62	58	245	1047	254	93	23	94%	3.9	24.2%	8.9%	15.3%	2.2%	4.38	3.38	+8.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	47	200	856	207	76	19	94%	3.9	24.2%	8.9%	15.3%	2.2%	4.38	3.38	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Prielipp (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.06	24.1%	9.3%	2.6%	—	4.01	25.0%	16.3%	428	-0.05	—	—	—
Carson Whisenhunt L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	22	SP	3.11	27.4%	11.1%	1.7%	.270	4.28	19.7%	10.4%	353	+1.17	3.11	411	73
Matt Moore L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	26	SP	4.17	21.9%	7.8%	3.5%	.323	4.44	19.7%	11.3%	475	+0.27	2.80	861	72
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	71
Joe Rock L 2023 · 4.44 FIP	23	SP	4.44	22.1%	8.9%	3.8%	.335	4.16	18.8%	10.4%	289	-0.28	3.82	486	71
Jackson Wolf L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SP	4.16	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.279	4.35	18.2%	9.2%	348	+0.19	4.07	614	70
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	70
Patrick Monteverde L 2023 · 4.49 FIP	25	SP	4.49	19.9%	10.9%	3.1%	.267	5.58	16.3%	8.8%	304	+1.09	3.88	542	70
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	69
David Peterson L 2021 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP	4.46	24.0%	10.1%	3.8%	.298	3.63	24.1%	14.2%	401	-0.83	2.81	1,061	69
Patrick Corbin L 2015 · 3.34 FIP	26	SP	3.34	20.6%	5.3%	2.4%	.312	3.46	24.1%	17.2%	545	+0.12	2.30	1,829	69
Tyler Skaggs L 2016 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.72	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.54	3.18	372	68
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	67
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	67
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	66
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	66
Daniel Lynch IV L 2022 · 4.52 FIP	25	SP	4.52	20.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.329	4.43	16.8%	9.9%	303	-0.09	2.21	749	66
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	65
Cade Povich L 2023 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	25.4%	12.1%	3.4%	.298	4.33	21.8%	13.5%	382	-0.02	3.81	623	65
Damon Jones L 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP	3.71	25.9%	13.8%	1.9%	.266	4.21	25.5%	7.4%	41	+0.50	3.71	269	65
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	25	SP	4.25	18.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.45	17.1%	7.9%	185	+0.20	3.57	534	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.5	122	24.4%	9.3%	1.22	4.27
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98