Connor Prielipp
P
St. Paul Saints
+0.6
WAR
Age 25
LHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA4.17
FIP4.17
xFIP1.87
SIERA1.97
K%23.2%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.6%
IP62
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†5555
FB (39%)
SI (6%)
CU (12%)
CH (12%)
SL (37%)
CT-0.8
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 2 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 7 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 9 | 9 | 23 | 91 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 32.0% | 10.5% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 1.72 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 24 | 23 | 83 | 363 | 98 | 31 | 7 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 4.03 | 3.53 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | 4 | 3 | 16 | 63 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 30.7% | 13.3% | 1.7% | 2.30 | 3.15 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 60 | 25 | 7 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 77 | 323 | 82 | 33 | 8 | 25.5% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 3.79 | 3.96 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 61 | 25 | 7 | 23.4% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.17 | 4.16 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 60 | 25 | 7 | 23.4% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.19 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 59 | 24 | 7 | 23.4% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.22 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 58 | 24 | 7 | 23.3% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 56 | 23 | 7 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 53 | 23 | 7 | 22.8% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 50 | 22 | 7 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 47 | 22 | 7 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 44 | 21 | 6 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 41 | 20 | 6 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 38 | 19 | 6 | 21.1% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 37 | 128 | 549 | 137 | 55 | 9 | 24.9% | 10.1% | 1.6% | 3.72 | 3.15 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 58 | 200 | 856 | 214 | 86 | 14 | 24.9% | 10.1% | 1.6% | 3.72 | 3.15 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Prielipp (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.17 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 2.6% | — | 4.19 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 183 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Josh Osich L 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 21.2% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .241 | 4.78 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 137 | +1.37 | 3.41 | 315 | 81 |
| Easton Lucas L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.15 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.36 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 216 | +0.21 | 3.48 | 311 | 78 |
| James Paxton L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 77 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2028 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 76 |
| Dylan Lee L 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .277 | 2.55 | 29.0% | 25.0% | 113 | -1.87 | 2.48 | 484 | 76 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2029 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .242 | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.0% | 63 | +0.92 | 3.52 | 126 | 75 |
| Parker Mushinski L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.51 | 24.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .357 | 4.12 | 22.0% | 11.4% | 143 | +0.61 | 3.26 | 399 | 74 |
| Alberto Baldonado L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.27 | 22.0% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .354 | 3.08 | 24.3% | 14.5% | 57 | -1.19 | 2.47 | 386 | 73 |
| Greg Nappo L 2027 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.36 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.2% | .267 | 5.28 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +1.92 | 3.36 | 144 | 73 |
| Aaron Bummer L 2026 · 3.03 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.03 | 22.9% | 8.4% | 1.5% | .222 | 2.63 | 29.3% | 19.3% | 83 | -0.40 | 2.03 | 448 | 73 |
| A.J. Minter L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.88 | 25.5% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .358 | 2.15 | 30.5% | 23.3% | 144 | -1.73 | 1.41 | 405 | 73 |
| Kolton Ingram L 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.44 | 24.9% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .234 | 4.37 | 23.3% | 8.8% | 113 | +0.93 | 3.35 | 239 | 72 |
| David Peterson L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.47 | 24.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .298 | 3.65 | 24.2% | 14.0% | 401 | -0.82 | 2.81 | 949 | 72 |
| Brandon Eisert L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 3.8% | .317 | 4.09 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 123 | -0.28 | 3.64 | 313 | 72 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 72 |
| Tony Cingrani L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.62 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | .305 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 15.7% | 128 | +0.31 | 1.66 | 186 | 72 |
| Luis Avilán L 2027 · 3.42 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.42 | 22.3% | 5.9% | 2.6% | .276 | 2.71 | 26.1% | 17.6% | 145 | -0.71 | 2.65 | 256 | 71 |
| Darien Núñez L 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.22 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.63 | 2.48 | 122 | 71 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 71 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 101 | 71 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2027
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2027 | |||
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $7M | $12M | +$5M | ||