Connor Prielipp
P
Minnesota Twins
Age 25
LHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.1 · 2027
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION82 act + 44 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8796vR 105
ERA3.63
FIP3.63
K%25.0%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%15.3%
ROS IP44
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6295.4
Whiff%
p3022.5%
K%
p6024.1%
xwOBA vs
p440.318
FB (41%)
SI (11%)
CU (17%)
CH (12%)
SL (30%)
CT-0.8
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 3.3 | 21.9% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 2.84 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 3.3 | 21.9% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 2.80 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 9 | 9 | 23 | 91 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 2.6 | 32.0% | 10.5% | 21.5% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 1.72 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 9 | 9 | 23 | 91 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 2.6 | 45.1% | 7.7% | 37.4% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 0.49 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 83 | 363 | 98 | 31 | 7 | 96% | 3.4 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 2.1% | 4.03 | 3.53 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 83 | 363 | 98 | 31 | 7 | 96% | 3.4 | 27.0% | 8.5% | 18.5% | 1.9% | 4.03 | 2.95 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 17 | 16 | 82 | 357 | 93 | 33 | 9 | 94% | 4.8 | 25.3% | 9.4% | 16.0% | 2.5% | 4.48 | 3.55 | +1.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 44 | 188 | 47 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.0% | 9.7% | 15.3% | 2.6% | 3.63 | 3.63 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | 8 | 8 | 44 | 186 | 46 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.0% | 9.7% | 15.3% | 2.6% | 3.64 | 3.64 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 127 | 545 | 140 | 51 | 14 | — | — | 25.7% | 9.4% | 16.3% | 2.5% | 4.18 | 3.58 | +2.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 111 | 469 | 140 | 51 | 14 | — | — | 29.8% | 10.9% | 18.9% | 3.0% | 4.78 | 3.59 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 86 | 361 | 90 | 34 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.8% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 2.7% | 4.05 | 4.03 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 88 | 373 | 92 | 34 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.6% | 9.2% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 4.08 | 4.08 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 88 | 373 | 91 | 35 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.18 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 84 | 356 | 86 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.31 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 79 | 334 | 86 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.7% | 9.0% | 16.7% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 4.21 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 74 | 312 | 79 | 29 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 16.0% | 3.4% | 4.34 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 68 | 289 | 72 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.8% | 9.7% | 15.1% | 3.7% | 4.52 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 63 | 265 | 65 | 27 | 11 | 100% | 6.3 | 24.3% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 4.0% | 4.74 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 57 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.8% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 4.3% | 5.00 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 85 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.8% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 2.7% | 4.06 | 4.04 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 87 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.6% | 9.2% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.09 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 86 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.19 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 81 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 14.6% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.32 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 75 | 317 | 81 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.7% | 9.0% | 16.7% | 3.2% | 4.23 | 4.22 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 75 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 16.0% | 3.5% | 4.35 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 68 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.8% | 9.7% | 15.1% | 3.7% | 4.53 | 4.65 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 62 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.3% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 4.0% | 4.75 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 52 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 4.3% | 5.01 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 130 | 130 | 762 | 3230 | 796 | 305 | 103 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.6% | 9.4% | 15.2% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 3.96 | +12.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 848 | 209 | 80 | 27 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.6% | 9.4% | 15.2% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 52 | 50 | 195 | 843 | 208 | 80 | 17 | 96% | 3.8 | 24.6% | 9.5% | 15.1% | 2.0% | 4.15 | 3.32 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 51 | 200 | 865 | 213 | 82 | 17 | 96% | 3.8 | 24.6% | 9.5% | 15.1% | 2.0% | 4.15 | 3.32 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Prielipp (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.10 | 24.6% | 10.0% | 2.6% | — | 4.10 | 24.6% | 15.3% | 262 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| James Paxton L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 70 |
| David Peterson L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.46 | 24.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .298 | 3.65 | 24.2% | 14.0% | 401 | -0.81 | 2.80 | 1,080 | 69 |
| Matt Moore L 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.18 | 21.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .323 | 4.45 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 475 | +0.27 | 2.82 | 845 | 69 |
| Kohl Drake L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.34 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .295 | 5.13 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 66 | +0.79 | 3.28 | 297 | 68 |
| Patrick Monteverde L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.36 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .267 | 5.86 | 17.7% | 9.4% | 270 | +1.50 | 3.88 | 509 | 68 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.21 | 26.1% | 9.2% | 2.1% | .300 | 3.81 | 23.0% | 15.2% | 290 | +0.60 | 3.21 | 372 | 68 |
| Dalton Pence L 2024 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.89 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 153 | 66 |
| Patrick Corbin L 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.29 | 20.6% | 5.3% | 2.3% | .312 | 3.39 | 24.1% | 17.2% | 545 | +0.10 | 2.20 | 1,825 | 66 |
| Damon Jones L 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 25.9% | 13.8% | 2.2% | .266 | 4.25 | 25.5% | 7.4% | 41 | +0.40 | 3.85 | 269 | 65 |
| Noah Cameron L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.48 | 23.3% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .319 | 4.09 | 21.4% | 13.6% | 267 | +0.61 | 2.86 | 563 | 65 |
| Zach Thornton L 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 65 |
| Carson Whisenhunt L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.42 | 21.0% | 11.0% | 1.3% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 372 | 64 |
| Daniel Lynch IV L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .329 | 4.39 | 17.3% | 9.9% | 303 | -0.10 | 2.19 | 716 | 64 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 152 | 64 |
| Ben Shields L 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.20 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .273 | 2.91 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 43 | -0.29 | 2.91 | 147 | 64 |
| Payton Tolle L 2024 · 3.08 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.08 | 25.8% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 207 | 63 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.45 | 26.4% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .297 | 3.43 | 25.9% | 18.1% | 361 | -0.02 | 3.20 | 1,520 | 63 |
| Gage Jump L 2024 · 3.32 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.32 | 26.1% | 9.4% | 2.2% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 199 | 63 |
| Jackson Kent L 2024 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.80 | 23.2% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 197 | 63 |
| Connor Wietgrefe L 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 200 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 76 | 24.7% | 9.6% | 1.24 | 4.31 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |
| Daniel Norris ('22) | 8 | 70 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 1.37 | 4.70 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |