John Means
P
Columbus Clippers
Age 33
LHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 175 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114123vR 133
ERA4.71
FIP5.04
K%17.8%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%9.9%
ROS IP175
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.5
Whiff%
p5626.3%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p320.333
SL+1.2 (23%)
CH+0.7 (28%)
FB+0.7 (38%)
CU (11%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 138 | 603 | 99 | 36 | 12 | 100% | 5.1 | 12.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 3.91 | 4.60 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 138 | 603 | 99 | 36 | 12 | 100% | 5.1 | 16.4% | 6.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | 3.91 | 3.58 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 146 | 620 | 105 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 13.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 1.4% | 3.70 | 3.51 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 146 | 620 | 105 | 35 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 11.3% | 1.3% | 3.70 | 3.09 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 26 | 24 | 142 | 623 | 124 | 36 | 16 | 92% | 5.5 | 16.1% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.11 | 4.24 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 26 | 24 | 142 | 623 | 124 | 36 | 16 | 92% | 5.5 | 19.9% | 5.8% | 14.1% | 2.6% | 4.11 | 3.58 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 26 | 161 | 684 | 134 | 31 | 16 | 90% | 5.5 | 16.7% | 5.0% | 11.7% | 2.6% | 3.92 | 3.72 | +3.2 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 26 | 161 | 684 | 134 | 31 | 16 | 90% | 5.5 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 15.1% | 2.3% | 3.92 | 3.31 | +3.9 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 31 | 27 | 155 | 637 | 121 | 38 | 23 | 87% | 5.0 | 19.0% | 6.0% | 13.0% | 3.4% | 3.60 | 4.10 | +2.4 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 31 | 27 | 155 | 637 | 121 | 38 | 23 | 87% | 5.0 | 19.0% | 6.0% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 3.60 | 4.20 | +2.2 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 10 | 10 | 44 | 176 | 42 | 7 | 12 | 100% | 4.4 | 23.9% | 4.0% | 19.9% | 6.3% | 4.53 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 10 | 10 | 44 | 176 | 42 | 7 | 12 | 100% | 4.4 | 23.9% | 4.0% | 19.9% | 6.8% | 4.53 | 5.23 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 29 | 29 | 155 | 628 | 143 | 29 | 33 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.7% | 4.4% | 18.3% | 4.7% | 3.72 | 4.34 | +1.9 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 29 | 29 | 155 | 628 | 143 | 29 | 33 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.8% | 4.6% | 18.2% | 5.3% | 3.72 | 4.59 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 2 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 4.0 | 20.6% | 5.9% | 14.7% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 2.11 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 2 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 4.0 | 20.6% | 5.9% | 14.7% | 0.0% | 3.38 | 2.10 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 10 | 45 | 177 | 32 | 12 | 6 | 100% | 4.5 | 14.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 3.18 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 10 | 45 | 177 | 32 | 12 | 6 | 100% | 4.5 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 3.18 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 39 | 165 | 38 | 9 | 7 | 100% | 3.9 | 21.4% | 5.7% | 15.8% | 4.5% | 5.49 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 39 | 165 | 38 | 9 | 7 | 100% | 3.9 | 23.0% | 5.5% | 17.6% | 4.2% | 5.49 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 27 | 112 | 22 | 11 | 7 | 100% | 3.8 | 14.7% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 7.2% | 6.08 | 7.30 | — |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 27 | 112 | 22 | 11 | 7 | 100% | 3.8 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 6.08 | 6.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 27 | 27 | 163 | 687 | 123 | 55 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.8% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 4.71 | 5.04 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 25 | 148 | 625 | 106 | 53 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 5.09 | 5.34 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 133 | 561 | 90 | 50 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 5.44 | 5.68 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 118 | 497 | 74 | 48 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.0% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.80 | 6.04 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 25 | 148 | 625 | 106 | 53 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.0% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 5.09 | 5.34 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 90 | 50 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 5.44 | 5.68 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 75 | 48 | 24 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.0% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.80 | 6.04 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 144 | 139 | 800 | 3304 | 604 | 230 | 146 | 97% | 5.6 | 18.3% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 4.4% | 4.55 | 4.86 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 35 | 200 | 826 | 151 | 58 | 37 | 97% | 5.5 | 18.3% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 4.4% | 4.55 | 4.86 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 208 | 199 | 1060 | 4459 | 760 | 264 | 147 | 96% | 5.1 | 17.1% | 5.9% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 3.94 | 4.22 | +14.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 38 | 200 | 842 | 144 | 50 | 28 | 96% | 5.1 | 17.1% | 5.9% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 3.94 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| John Means (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.04 | 17.8% | 7.9% | 3.8% | — | 5.66 | 16.0% | 7.1% | 399 | +0.62 | — | — | — |
| CC Sabathia L 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.30 | 18.9% | 6.5% | 3.6% | .311 | 3.96 | 20.1% | 12.1% | 481 | -0.34 | 3.75 | 756 | 73 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 72 |
| Eric Stults L 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 71 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.40 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.68 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.28 | 4.40 | 408 | 71 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.30 | 19.4% | 7.2% | 3.5% | .279 | 4.87 | 20.5% | 15.3% | 68 | +0.57 | 3.68 | 549 | 69 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.85 | 14.2% | 6.9% | 2.0% | .298 | 4.45 | 10.4% | 3.0% | 129 | +0.60 | 3.85 | 237 | 68 |
| Cole Hamels L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.30 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.94 | 23.3% | 14.8% | 332 | -0.36 | 3.22 | 893 | 67 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.97 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .341 | 4.75 | 11.3% | 5.2% | 224 | -0.22 | 4.24 | 445 | 66 |
| Jon Lester L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.88 | 23.6% | 7.5% | 3.3% | .306 | 4.18 | 19.9% | 12.5% | 414 | +0.30 | 2.74 | 1,144 | 66 |
| Tomas Solis L 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.29 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 3.9% | .273 | 6.43 | 10.1% | 2.4% | 117 | +1.14 | 4.35 | 327 | 65 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 5.82 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.82 | 15.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | .289 | 4.16 | 24.3% | 17.1% | 98 | -1.66 | 3.47 | 512 | 64 |
| Roy Merritt L 2024 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.88 | 16.2% | 5.8% | 2.6% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 129 | 64 |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.28 | 22.3% | 6.1% | 4.2% | .287 | 5.11 | 18.0% | 10.9% | 114 | +0.83 | 2.42 | 807 | 64 |
| Clayton Richard L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.05 | 17.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% | .343 | 4.78 | 14.7% | 5.9% | 204 | +0.73 | 3.58 | 574 | 62 |
| Everett Teaford L 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 62 |
| Orlando Lara L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.45 | 14.7% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .346 | 4.05 | 22.0% | 14.2% | 104 | -0.40 | 3.82 | 426 | 61 |
| Shota Imanaga L 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.61 | 24.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 426 | 60 |
| Wade LeBlanc L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.28 | 19.6% | 5.9% | 3.8% | .271 | 5.15 | 16.4% | 10.2% | 227 | +0.87 | 3.53 | 609 | 59 |
| John Lannan L 2024 · 4.76 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.76 | 8.2% | 7.7% | 2.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 284 | 59 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.11 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 146 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 140 | 16.6% | 8.7% | 1.62 | 5.21 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |