John Means

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 34 LHP 6'4" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	31	MIX2 levels	10	10	39	5.49	4.17	23.0%	5.5%	0.6	K 21.2% · BB 5.0% · FIP 4.46
2025	32	MIX2 levels	7	7	27	6.08	6.10	19.6%	9.8%	—	K 14.3% · BB 10.0% · FIP 7.45
2026	33	MIX2 levels	5	5	14	3.77	4.70	18.6%	3.4%	—	K 18.6% · BB 3.4% · FIP 4.75
2027PROJ	34	MLBKC	1	1	6	4.59	4.87	18.3%	8.1%	0.0
2028PROJ	35	MLBKC	6	6	38	4.96	5.21	17.3%	8.6%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

K%35

xwOBA vs32

FB Velo10

CompsFrancisley Bueno (age 34) · Orlando Lara (age 34) · Daniel Rodriguez (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109118vR 126

ERA4.59

FIP4.87

K%18.3%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP46

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.5

Whiff%

p5626.3%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p320.333

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	138	603	99	36	12	100%	5.1	12.2%	7.0%	5.2%	2.7%	3.91	4.46	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	138	603	99	36	12	100%	5.1	16.4%	6.0%	10.4%	2.0%	3.91	3.58	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	146	620	105	35	8	100%	5.4	13.4%	6.3%	7.1%	1.4%	3.70	3.56	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	146	620	105	35	8	100%	5.4	16.9%	5.6%	11.3%	1.3%	3.70	3.09	—
2017	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	26	24	142	623	124	36	16	92%	5.5	16.1%	6.4%	9.8%	3.1%	4.11	4.24	—
2017	24	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	26	24	142	623	124	36	16	92%	5.5	19.9%	5.8%	14.1%	2.6%	4.11	3.58	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	26	161	684	134	31	16	90%	5.5	16.7%	5.0%	11.7%	2.6%	3.92	3.72	+3.3
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	26	161	684	134	31	16	90%	5.5	19.6%	4.5%	15.1%	2.3%	3.92	3.31	+4.2
2019	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	31	27	155	637	121	38	23	87%	5.0	19.0%	6.0%	13.0%	3.3%	3.60	4.04	+2.5
2019	26	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	31	27	155	637	121	38	23	87%	5.0	19.0%	6.0%	13.0%	3.6%	3.60	4.20	+2.2
2020	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	10	10	44	176	42	7	12	100%	4.4	23.9%	4.0%	19.9%	6.2%	4.53	4.97	+0.2
2020	27	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	10	10	44	176	42	7	12	100%	4.4	23.9%	4.0%	19.9%	6.8%	4.53	5.23	+0.1
2021	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	29	29	155	628	143	29	33	100%	5.3	22.7%	4.4%	18.3%	4.6%	3.72	4.26	+2.1
2021	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	29	29	155	628	143	29	33	100%	5.3	22.8%	4.6%	18.2%	5.3%	3.72	4.59	+1.5
2022	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	2	2	8	34	7	2	0	100%	4.0	20.6%	5.9%	14.7%	0.0%	3.38	2.11	+0.3
2022	29	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	2	2	8	34	7	2	0	100%	4.0	20.6%	5.9%	14.7%	0.0%	3.38	2.10	+0.3
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	10	45	177	32	12	6	100%	4.5	13.9%	6.4%	7.5%	3.5%	3.18	4.67	+0.4
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	10	45	177	32	12	6	100%	4.5	18.1%	6.8%	11.3%	3.4%	3.18	4.20	+0.6
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	39	165	38	9	7	100%	3.9	21.2%	5.0%	16.1%	4.6%	5.49	4.46	+0.4
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	39	165	38	9	7	100%	3.9	21.2%	5.0%	16.1%	4.6%	5.49	4.46	+0.4
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	39	165	38	9	7	100%	3.9	23.0%	5.5%	17.6%	4.2%	5.49	4.17	+0.6
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	27	112	22	11	7	100%	3.8	14.3%	10.0%	4.3%	7.8%	6.08	7.45	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	27	112	22	11	7	100%	3.8	14.3%	10.0%	4.3%	7.8%	6.08	7.45	—
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	27	112	22	11	7	100%	3.8	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	6.2%	6.08	6.10	—
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	14	59	11	2	3	100%	2.9	18.6%	3.4%	15.3%	5.1%	3.77	4.75	—
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	14	59	11	2	3	100%	2.9	18.6%	3.4%	15.3%	5.1%	3.77	4.75	—
2026	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	14	59	11	2	3	100%	2.9	18.6%	3.4%	15.3%	5.1%	3.77	4.70	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			78	73	401	1621	334	79	72	94%	5.1	20.6%	4.9%	15.7%	4.4%	3.68	4.36	+4.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	KC	1	1	6	25	5	2	1	100%	6.0	18.3%	8.1%	10.2%	3.5%	4.59	4.87	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	KC	6	6	38	162	28	14	6	100%	6.4	17.3%	8.6%	8.7%	3.8%	4.96	5.21	+0.1
2028	35	MLB CTX	KC	6	6	38	160	28	14	6	100%	6.3	17.3%	8.6%	8.7%	3.8%	4.96	5.21	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		84	79	439	1783	362	93	78	94%	5.2	20.3%	5.2%	15.1%	4.4%	3.79	4.45	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	36	200	812	165	42	36	94%	5.2	20.3%	5.2%	15.1%	4.4%	3.79	4.45	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		213	204	1074	4518	770	262	148	96%	5.0	17.1%	5.8%	11.2%	3.3%	3.94	4.20	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	38	200	841	143	49	28	96%	5.0	17.1%	5.8%	11.2%	3.3%	3.94	4.20	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 11 IPFIP 3.96 → 4.45 (+0.49)K% 22.7% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.860	19.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.27%	—	×0.900	2.05%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.96 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 20 IPFIP 7.37 → 7.45 (+0.09)K% 16.7% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.860	14.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×0.900	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	7.78%	÷1.093	×1.100	7.83%

Result: FIP 7.37 → 7.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Lake County Captains · 6 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.69 (+0.70)K% 31.8% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.82%	—	×0.770	24.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.55%	—	×1.150	5.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.011	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 19 IPFIP 5.19 → 5.72 (+0.54)K% 25.9% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.88%	—	×0.860	22.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.24%	—	×0.900	7.41%
HR / BF /BF	5.88%	÷0.996	×1.100	6.49%

Result: FIP 5.19 → 5.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 14 IPFIP 3.61 → 3.82 (+0.21)K% 20.7% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.69%	—	×0.860	17.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×0.900	9.31%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷0.995	×1.100	1.91%

Result: FIP 3.61 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABowie Baysox · 7 IPFIP 2.96 → 3.55 (+0.59)K% 32.3% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.26%	—	×0.810	26.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×1.100	7.10%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.208	×1.200	3.20%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 142).

Result: FIP 2.96 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANorfolk Tides · 111 IPFIP 3.06 → 3.43 (+0.36)K% 18.8% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.78%	—	×0.880	16.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.01%	—	×1.050	4.21%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷0.964	×1.100	2.17%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 3.06 → 3.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AABowie Baysox · 46 IPFIP 3.80 → 4.44 (+0.64)K% 21.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.13%	—	×0.810	17.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.19%	—	×1.100	6.80%
HR / BF /BF	3.09%	÷1.060	×1.200	3.50%

Result: FIP 3.80 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Means (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.5%	—	5.21	17.3%	8.7%	38	+0.34	—	—	—
Francisley Bueno L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	14.8%	7.1%	1.9%	.315	3.99	13.3%	6.6%	110	+0.22	2.43	188	73
Orlando Lara L 2019 · 4.09 FIP	34	SP	4.09	22.0%	7.8%	3.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	426	70
Daniel Rodriguez L 2019 · 4.77 FIP	34	SP	4.77	20.8%	7.8%	4.5%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	391	69
Marlon Arias L 2019 · 4.83 FIP	34	SP	4.83	19.8%	11.2%	3.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	154	66
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	66
Arturo Lopez L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	34	SP	4.34	10.3%	5.4%	2.6%	.342	5.46	12.2%	5.4%	117	+1.12	4.34	445	62
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	61
Tomas Solis L 2017 · 5.48 FIP	34	SP	5.48	11.3%	7.9%	4.2%	.322	6.44	8.9%	1.4%	57	+0.96	4.20	327	60
Chris Narveson L 2016 · 4.59 FIP	34	SP-	4.59	16.2%	8.5%	3.2%	.253	4.59	12.2%	1.8%	103	+0.00	4.00	625	60
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	59
Chris Michalak L 2006 · 5.71 FIP	35	SP-	5.71	6.2%	8.6%	3.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	186	58
Jorge Castillo L 2016 · 4.94 FIP	34	SP	4.94	13.0%	4.6%	4.3%	.246	4.93	16.8%	9.2%	179	-0.01	4.50	408	55
Paul Oseguera L 2016 · 5.62 FIP	32	SP	5.62	5.6%	12.5%	2.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	162	52
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	34
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.56	486	34
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	34
Luke Westphal L 2022 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	24.2%	13.4%	2.9%	.302	5.19	15.7%	-0.7%	26	+0.84	2.97	294	33
Jason Simontacchi R 2007 · 4.96 FIP	33	SP	4.96	13.0%	5.9%	4.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	356	33
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	33
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	32

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	69	20.1%	5.5%	1.66	3.87
Bowden Francis ('25)	1.0	68	21.8%	6.8%	1.80	3.87
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Vidal Nuño ('18)	1.9	75	19.6%	6.6%	1.55	4.06
Jim Willoughby ('71-'78, 4 WAR*)	2.8	79	16.0%*	6.2%*	1.42*	4.13*
Luis DeLeon ('81-'89, 4 WAR*)	1.7	67	25.0%*	5.7%*	1.69*	3.69*
Pat Underwood ('79-'83, 1 WAR*)	1.7	115	20.9%*	6.3%*	1.57*	4.52*