John Means — OGILVIE

John Means P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 33 LHP 6'4" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION10 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113121vR 129

ERA4.73

FIP5.05

K%17.3%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4545

CTRL7070

CMD5555

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.5

Whiff%

p5626.3%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p320.333

SL+1.2 (23%)

CH+0.7 (28%)

FB+0.7 (38%)

CU (11%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	138	603	99	36	12	100%	5.1	12.2%	7.0%	5.2%	2.7%	3.91	4.46	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	138	603	99	36	12	100%	5.1	16.4%	6.0%	10.4%	2.0%	3.91	3.58	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	146	620	105	35	8	100%	5.4	13.4%	6.3%	7.1%	1.4%	3.70	3.56	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	146	620	105	35	8	100%	5.4	16.9%	5.6%	11.3%	1.3%	3.70	3.09	—
2017	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	26	24	142	623	124	36	16	92%	5.5	16.1%	6.4%	9.8%	3.1%	4.11	4.24	—
2017	24	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	26	24	142	623	124	36	16	92%	5.5	19.9%	5.8%	14.1%	2.6%	4.11	3.58	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	26	161	684	134	31	16	90%	5.5	16.7%	5.0%	11.7%	2.6%	3.92	3.72	+2.3
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	26	161	684	134	31	16	90%	5.5	19.6%	4.5%	15.1%	2.3%	3.92	3.31	+3.2
2019	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	31	27	155	637	121	38	23	87%	5.0	19.0%	6.0%	13.0%	3.3%	3.60	4.04	+1.6
2019	26	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	31	27	155	637	121	38	23	87%	5.0	19.0%	6.0%	13.0%	3.6%	3.60	4.20	+1.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	10	10	44	176	42	7	12	100%	4.4	23.9%	4.0%	19.9%	6.2%	4.53	4.97	-0.0
2020	27	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	10	10	44	176	42	7	12	100%	4.4	23.9%	4.0%	19.9%	6.8%	4.53	5.23	-0.2
2021	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	29	29	155	628	143	29	33	100%	5.3	22.7%	4.4%	18.3%	4.6%	3.72	4.26	+1.2
2021	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	29	29	155	628	143	29	33	100%	5.3	22.8%	4.6%	18.2%	5.3%	3.72	4.59	+0.6
2022	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	2	2	8	34	7	2	0	100%	4.0	20.6%	5.9%	14.7%	0.0%	3.38	2.11	+0.3
2022	29	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	2	2	8	34	7	2	0	100%	4.0	20.6%	5.9%	14.7%	0.0%	3.38	2.10	+0.3
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	10	45	177	32	12	6	100%	4.5	13.7%	6.4%	7.2%	3.5%	3.18	4.69	+0.1
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	10	45	177	32	12	6	100%	4.5	13.7%	6.4%	7.2%	3.5%	3.18	4.69	+0.1
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	10	45	177	32	12	6	100%	4.5	18.1%	6.8%	11.3%	3.4%	3.18	4.20	+0.4
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	39	165	38	9	7	100%	3.9	20.8%	5.0%	15.7%	4.6%	5.49	4.49	+0.2
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	39	165	38	9	7	100%	3.9	20.8%	5.0%	15.7%	4.6%	5.49	4.49	+0.2
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	39	165	38	9	7	100%	3.9	23.0%	5.5%	17.6%	4.2%	5.49	4.17	+0.3
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	27	112	22	11	7	100%	3.8	13.8%	10.0%	3.8%	7.8%	6.08	7.50	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	27	112	22	11	7	100%	3.8	13.8%	10.0%	3.8%	7.8%	6.08	7.50	—
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	27	112	22	11	7	100%	3.8	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	6.2%	6.08	6.10	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			78	73	401	1621	334	79	72	94%	5.1	20.6%	4.9%	15.7%	4.4%	3.68	4.36	+2.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	4	4	10	41	8	1	2	100%	2.5	—	—	—	—	3.60	—	—
YTD	33	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	4	4	10	41	8	1	2	100%	2.5	—	—	—	—	3.60	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	A+ RAW	KC	2	2	3	15	1	1	1	100%	1.5	6.7%	6.7%	0.0%	6.7%	9.00	7.04	—
2026	33	AAA RAW	KC	2	2	7	26	7	0	1	100%	3.5	26.9%	0.0%	26.9%	3.8%	1.29	2.94	—
ROS	33	MLB MLE	KC	2	2	13	55	10	4	2	100%	6.6	17.3%	7.3%	10.1%	3.8%	4.73	5.05	-0.0
ROS	33	MLB CTX	KC	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	17.3%	7.3%	10.1%	3.8%	4.73	5.05	-0.0
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	23	96	18	5	4	—	—	18.3%	5.2%	13.0%	4.3%	4.24	2.87	+0.5
FULL	33	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	1	6	1	0	0	—	—	17.3%	7.3%	10.1%	3.8%	4.73	4.67	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	KC	25	25	148	625	103	49	26	100%	5.9	16.4%	7.8%	8.7%	4.1%	5.10	5.35	-0.7
2028	35	MLB MLE	KC	22	22	133	561	87	47	25	100%	6.0	15.5%	8.3%	7.2%	4.5%	5.45	5.69	-1.2
2027	34	MLB CTX	KC	25	25	148	625	103	49	26	100%	5.9	16.4%	7.8%	8.7%	4.1%	5.10	5.35	-0.7
2028	35	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	133	562	87	47	25	100%	6.0	15.5%	8.3%	7.2%	4.5%	5.45	5.69	-1.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		125	120	683	2813	525	175	123	96%	5.5	18.6%	6.2%	12.4%	4.4%	4.33	4.72	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	823	154	51	36	96%	5.5	18.6%	6.2%	12.4%	4.4%	4.33	4.72	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		212	203	1070	4500	766	261	147	96%	5.0	17.0%	5.8%	11.2%	3.3%	3.94	4.19	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	38	200	841	143	49	28	96%	5.0	17.0%	5.8%	11.2%	3.3%	3.94	4.19	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Means (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	17.3%	7.3%	3.8%	—	5.51	16.0%	7.9%	281	+0.46	—	—	—
CC Sabathia L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	35	SP	4.31	18.9%	6.5%	3.6%	.311	3.97	20.1%	12.1%	481	-0.34	3.76	756	73
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	72
Jorge De La Rosa L 2015 · 3.86 FIP	34	SP	3.86	21.1%	9.8%	2.4%	.284	4.36	18.4%	8.9%	256	+0.50	3.86	405	72
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	72
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	70
Arturo Lopez L 2016 · 5.26 FIP	33	SP	5.26	11.5%	7.9%	3.9%	.341	4.92	11.3%	5.2%	224	-0.34	4.34	445	67
Tomas Solis L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	33	SP	4.86	12.4%	8.5%	3.1%	.273	5.95	10.1%	2.4%	117	+1.09	4.20	327	65
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	64
Ross Detwiler L 2019 · 6.02 FIP	33	SP-	6.02	15.7%	7.3%	6.1%	.289	4.03	24.3%	17.1%	98	-1.99	3.49	512	64
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	63
Orlando Lara L 2017 · 4.39 FIP	32	SP	4.39	14.7%	6.5%	3.1%	.346	4.09	22.0%	14.2%	104	-0.30	3.85	426	61
Clayton Richard L 2017 · 3.89 FIP	33	SP	3.89	17.6%	6.2%	2.7%	.343	4.67	14.7%	5.9%	204	+0.78	3.56	574	61
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	60
John Lannan L 2016 · 4.83 FIP	31	SP-	4.83	8.2%	7.7%	2.6%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	284	59
Wade LeBlanc L 2018 · 4.23 FIP	33	SP	4.23	19.6%	5.9%	3.7%	.271	5.12	16.4%	10.2%	227	+0.89	3.65	609	59
Daniel Rodriguez L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	32	SP	3.87	13.1%	9.7%	1.2%	.335	4.77	20.8%	13.0%	112	+0.90	2.89	391	59
Wei-Yin Chen L 2018 · 4.29 FIP	33	SP	4.29	19.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.279	4.85	20.5%	15.3%	68	+0.56	3.68	549	55
James Russell L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	33	SP	4.28	16.2%	3.2%	3.9%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	2.66	233	54
Mark Buehrle L 2015 · 4.08 FIP	36	SP	4.08	11.0%	3.5%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	199	52
Travis Blackley L 2016 · 3.85 FIP	33	SP	3.85	11.6%	10.7%	0.7%	.301	6.88	6.1%	-3.6%	27	+3.03	3.85	225	51

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	148	16.5%	7.8%	1.60	5.07
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75