Bowden Francis
P
Toronto Blue Jays
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 30
RHP
6'5" / 220 lbs
MLB
ERA4.62
FIP5.04
xFIP5.21
SIERA4.88
K%21.6%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%13.8%
IP75
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p2292.5
Whiff%
p3623.3%
K%
p2718.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.373
SI (2%)
CU (14%)
SL-0.5 (6%)
FB-3.6 (58%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 4 | 2 | 10 | 52 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 17.0% | 7.2% | 0.0% | 8.10 | 2.58 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | 26 | 23 | 128 | 552 | 106 | 37 | 12 | 14.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.40 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 28 | 27 | 143 | 603 | 165 | 54 | 15 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 3.97 | 4.10 | +1.9 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 25 | 24 | 133 | 547 | 136 | 48 | 24 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 3.93 | 5.01 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 38 | 23 | 99 | 455 | 111 | 43 | 23 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 5.9% | 6.55 | 5.79 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 30 | 8 | 66 | 258 | 80 | 15 | 11 | 28.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 2.04 | 4.22 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 33 | 17 | 123 | 478 | 116 | 25 | 18 | 23.7% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.93 | 3.78 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 14 | 14 | 64 | 288 | 54 | 27 | 19 | 18.8% | 9.4% | 5.9% | 6.05 | 5.94 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 22 | — | 22 | 95 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 20.6% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 4.64 | 5.10 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 61 | 24 | 13 | 20.0% | 7.9% | 4.4% | 4.98 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 69 | 293 | 57 | 24 | 13 | 19.4% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 5.18 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 52 | 23 | 13 | 18.7% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 5.34 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 48 | 22 | 12 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 4.7% | 5.49 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 59 | — | 59 | 251 | 43 | 22 | 12 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 5.64 | 5.74 | -0.5 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 56 | — | 56 | 234 | 39 | 21 | 11 | 16.5% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 5.80 | 5.90 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 198 | 138 | 766 | 3233 | 677 | 271 | 133 | 21.0% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 4.28 | 4.64 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 36 | 200 | 844 | 177 | 71 | 35 | 21.0% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 4.28 | 4.64 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bowden Francis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.10 | 20.6% | 7.8% | 4.3% | — | 5.32 | 19.4% | 11.3% | 208 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.44 | 16.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | .305 | 4.81 | 25.8% | 18.8% | 81 | +0.37 | 2.67 | 279 | 70 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 69 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 67 |
| Rob Wooten R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.91 | 19.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | .299 | 3.86 | 17.7% | 14.4% | 111 | -1.05 | 3.19 | 191 | 67 |
| Homer Bailey R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.02 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 4.8% | .373 | 4.26 | 17.9% | 10.8% | 398 | -0.76 | 4.00 | 509 | 67 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 66 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 101 | 66 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 65 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.10 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .333 | 5.03 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.07 | 2.39 | 676 | 65 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 65 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 65 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 65 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 65 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.35 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | .343 | 6.18 | 27.9% | 22.6% | 12 | +1.83 | 2.83 | 363 | 65 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 64 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 64 |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.70 | 21.2% | 8.6% | 4.2% | .271 | 4.27 | 23.5% | 15.5% | 88 | -0.43 | 3.20 | 592 | 64 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2024 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 64 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.79 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .311 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.11 | 3.93 | 337 | 64 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 63 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.