Bowden Francis
P
Toronto Blue Jays
Age 30
RHP
6'5" / 220 lbs
MLB
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION74 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.78
FIP5.27
xFIP5.21
SIERA4.88
K%20.3%
BB%7.8%
K-BB%12.5%
IP75
K†5050
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p2292.5
Whiff%
p3623.3%
K%
p2718.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.373
SI (2%)
CU (14%)
SL-0.5 (6%)
FB-3.6 (58%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | ROK | AZL Brewers | 4 | 2 | 10 | 52 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 17.0% | 7.2% | 0.0% | 8.10 | 2.58 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | 26 | 23 | 128 | 552 | 106 | 37 | 12 | 14.3% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.50 | 4.38 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 28 | 27 | 143 | 603 | 165 | 54 | 15 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 2.9% | 3.97 | 4.07 | +2.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 25 | 24 | 133 | 547 | 136 | 48 | 24 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 4.6% | 3.93 | 4.96 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 38 | 23 | 99 | 455 | 111 | 43 | 23 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 6.55 | 5.96 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 30 | 8 | 66 | 258 | 80 | 15 | 11 | 28.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 2.04 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 33 | 17 | 123 | 478 | 116 | 25 | 18 | 23.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.93 | 3.85 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 14 | 14 | 64 | 288 | 54 | 27 | 19 | 18.8% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 6.05 | 6.33 | -1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 43 | 17 | 10 | 20.3% | 7.8% | 4.6% | 4.78 | 5.27 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 70 | 295 | 57 | 24 | 14 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 5.21 | 5.50 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 51 | 23 | 14 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 5.54 | 5.75 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 45 | 22 | 13 | 17.9% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 5.84 | 6.03 | -1.0 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 39 | 22 | 13 | 17.0% | 9.5% | 5.6% | 6.14 | 6.34 | -1.1 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 33 | 21 | 12 | 16.0% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 6.46 | 6.67 | -1.2 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 27 | 19 | 11 | 15.0% | 10.6% | 6.3% | 6.81 | 7.04 | -1.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 198 | 138 | 766 | 3233 | 677 | 271 | 136 | 21.0% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 4.28 | 4.70 | +6.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 36 | 200 | 844 | 177 | 71 | 36 | 21.0% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 4.28 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bowden Francis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.27 | 20.3% | 7.8% | 4.6% | — | 5.75 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 194 | +0.48 | — | — | — |
| Rob Wooten R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.26 | 19.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | .299 | 3.74 | 17.7% | 14.4% | 111 | -1.52 | 3.19 | 191 | 69 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.47 | 16.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | .305 | 4.91 | 25.8% | 18.8% | 81 | +0.44 | 2.54 | 279 | 68 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 68 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 67 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 66 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 66 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.08 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .311 | 4.91 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.17 | 3.93 | 337 | 66 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 66 |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.02 | 21.2% | 8.6% | 4.8% | .271 | 4.32 | 23.5% | 15.5% | 88 | -0.70 | 3.24 | 592 | 66 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.81 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .373 | 3.58 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.23 | 3.37 | 170 | 66 |
| Homer Bailey R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.32 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 5.3% | .373 | 4.31 | 17.9% | 10.8% | 398 | -1.01 | 3.97 | 509 | 64 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 64 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 64 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 64 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 63 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2024 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.11 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.8% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 63 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.22 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.3% | .333 | 4.92 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.30 | 2.32 | 676 | 63 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.43 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 4.4% | .343 | 5.80 | 27.9% | 22.6% | 12 | +1.37 | 2.82 | 363 | 63 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 63 |
| Tyler Herron R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 62 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.