Bowden Francis — OGILVIE

Bowden Francis P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 31 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs MLB ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 42 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 119

ERA4.76

FIP5.08

K%20.8%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2292.5

Whiff%

p3623.3%

p2718.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.373

SI (2%)

CU (14%)

SL-0.5 (6%)

FB-3.6 (58%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	21	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	4	2	10	52	13	3	0	50%	2.5	17.0%	7.2%	9.8%	0.0%	8.10	2.58	—
2017	21	ROK RAW	AZL Brewers	4	2	10	52	13	3	0	50%	2.5	25.0%	5.8%	19.2%	0.0%	8.10	1.40	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	128	552	106	37	12	88%	4.9	14.3%	7.9%	6.4%	2.8%	4.50	4.40	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	128	552	106	37	12	88%	4.9	19.2%	6.7%	12.5%	2.2%	4.50	3.53	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	143	603	165	54	15	96%	5.1	22.0%	9.9%	12.1%	2.9%	3.97	4.10	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	143	603	165	54	15	96%	5.1	27.4%	9.0%	18.4%	2.5%	3.97	3.29	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	133	547	136	48	24	96%	5.3	21.5%	9.3%	12.3%	4.7%	3.93	5.04	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	133	547	136	48	24	96%	5.3	24.9%	8.8%	16.1%	4.4%	3.93	4.49	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	23	99	455	111	43	23	61%	2.6	21.4%	10.0%	11.4%	5.9%	6.55	5.79	-1.0
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	23	99	455	111	43	23	61%	2.6	24.4%	9.5%	14.9%	5.1%	6.55	5.18	-0.3
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	8	66	258	80	15	11	27%	2.2	28.6%	5.7%	22.8%	4.9%	2.04	4.11	+0.3
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	8	66	258	80	15	11	27%	2.2	31.0%	5.8%	25.2%	4.3%	2.04	3.52	+0.8
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	17	123	478	116	25	18	52%	3.7	23.6%	5.2%	18.4%	3.8%	2.93	3.84	+1.6
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	17	123	478	116	25	18	52%	3.7	23.6%	5.2%	18.4%	3.8%	2.93	3.84	+1.6
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	17	123	478	116	25	18	52%	3.7	24.3%	5.2%	19.0%	3.8%	2.93	3.73	+1.7
2025	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	14	14	64	288	54	27	19	100%	4.6	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	6.6%	6.05	6.33	-1.0
2025	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	14	14	64	288	54	27	19	100%	4.6	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	6.6%	6.05	6.33	-1.0
2025	29	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	14	14	64	288	54	27	19	100%	4.6	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	6.6%	6.05	6.54	-1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			62	27	205	835	182	57	41	44%	3.3	21.8%	6.8%	15.0%	4.9%	3.87	4.76	-0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	TOR	7	7	42	177	37	15	7	100%	6.0	20.8%	8.2%	12.6%	4.2%	4.76	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	64	268	54	23	12	100%	5.8	20.0%	8.6%	11.4%	4.5%	5.10	5.33	-0.3
2029	33	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	58	246	47	22	12	100%	5.8	19.2%	9.0%	10.1%	4.7%	5.41	5.61	-0.5
2028	32	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	60	253	51	22	11	100%	6.0	20.0%	8.6%	11.4%	4.5%	5.10	5.33	-0.3
2029	33	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	55	232	45	21	11	100%	6.1	19.2%	9.0%	10.1%	4.7%	5.41	5.61	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		81	46	320	1324	278	100	63	57%	4.0	21.0%	7.6%	13.4%	4.8%	4.37	4.92	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		51	29	200	826	174	62	39	57%	3.9	21.0%	7.6%	13.4%	4.8%	4.37	4.92	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		198	138	766	3233	676	269	135	70%	3.9	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	4.2%	4.28	4.68	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	36	200	844	177	70	35	70%	3.9	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	4.2%	4.28	4.68	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bowden Francis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.08	20.8%	8.2%	4.2%	—	5.46	19.6%	10.8%	122	+0.38	—	—	—
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	66
Asher Wojciechowski R 2020 · 5.92 FIP	31	SP-	5.92	18.5%	8.9%	5.9%	.306	4.33	23.6%	15.6%	55	-1.59	3.15	678	64
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	63
Daisuke Matsuzaka R 2012 · 5.55 FIP	31	SP	5.55	19.1%	9.3%	5.2%	.329	3.83	21.1%	9.5%	122	-1.72	3.77	790	62
Joe Biagini R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	31	SP	4.80	18.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.309	4.53	16.4%	6.6%	39	-0.27	2.66	624	62
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	61
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	61
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	60
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	58
Chris Heston R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	29	SP-	5.88	13.6%	10.0%	4.9%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	321	58
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	58
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	57
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	57
Seth Greisinger R 2004 · 5.38 FIP	29	SP-	5.38	15.5%	6.0%	5.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	4.53	219	57
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	56
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	56
Paolo Espino R 2018 · 4.51 FIP	31	SW	4.51	18.7%	9.6%	3.2%	.348	4.42	20.4%	14.7%	202	-0.09	3.42	933	56
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	55
Luke Farrell R 2022 · 4.87 FIP	31	SP-	4.87	17.8%	11.0%	3.4%	.289	4.85	17.3%	7.9%	55	-0.02	3.69	584	55
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	62	20.9%	7.7%	1.83	4.43
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80
Nelson Cruz ('03)	1.7	58	18.2%	7.2%	1.52	5.04
A.J. Cole ('21)	1.0	41	23.0%	9.1%	1.71	4.51
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43