Justin Wrobleski
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
Age 26
LHP
6'1" / 194 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION100 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8696vR 105
ERA3.78
FIP3.66
K%19.8%
BB%6.4%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 167 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4794.3
Whiff%
p1019.5%
K%
p2318.3%
xwOBA vs
p480.314
SL+3.8 (32%)
FB+3.6 (57%)
CH (5%)
SI (7%)
CU (5%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 22 | 87 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 77% | 1.7 | 25.1% | 0.0% | 25.1% | 0.0% | 2.91 | 0.98 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 10 | 22 | 87 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 77% | 1.7 | 29.9% | 5.7% | 24.1% | 1.1% | 2.91 | 1.99 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 25 | 23 | 102 | 420 | 109 | 35 | 6 | 92% | 4.1 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 2.0% | 2.90 | 3.71 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 25 | 23 | 102 | 420 | 109 | 35 | 6 | 92% | 4.1 | 26.0% | 8.3% | 17.6% | 1.4% | 2.90 | 2.76 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 24 | 132 | 555 | 130 | 47 | 16 | 86% | 4.7 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 4.30 | 4.31 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 24 | 132 | 555 | 130 | 47 | 16 | 86% | 4.7 | 23.4% | 8.5% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 3.77 | +2.5 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 12 | 118 | 503 | 123 | 39 | 13 | 34% | 3.4 | 23.3% | 8.0% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 3.75 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 12 | 118 | 503 | 123 | 39 | 13 | 34% | 3.4 | 24.5% | 7.8% | 16.7% | 2.6% | 4.26 | 3.44 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 16 | 15 | 100 | 399 | 73 | 20 | 8 | 94% | 6.3 | 18.3% | 5.0% | 13.3% | 2.0% | 2.69 | 3.29 | +2.5 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 67 | 282 | 56 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 6.7 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 3.66 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 67 | 283 | 56 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 6.7 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 3.78 | 3.66 | +0.8 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 167 | 681 | 129 | 38 | 15 | — | — | 18.9% | 5.6% | 13.3% | 2.2% | 3.13 | 3.44 | +3.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 167 | 706 | 129 | 38 | 15 | — | — | 18.3% | 5.4% | 12.9% | 2.2% | 3.13 | 3.43 | +3.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 73 | 309 | 63 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 13.7% | 2.7% | 4.08 | 4.05 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 71 | 299 | 60 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.2% | 6.7% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 69 | 291 | 59 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.3% | 6.6% | 13.7% | 2.7% | 4.08 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 57 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.2% | 6.7% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 80 | 55 | 407 | 1693 | 348 | 108 | 46 | 69% | 5.1 | 20.5% | 6.4% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.67 | +8.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 27 | 200 | 832 | 171 | 53 | 23 | 69% | 5.1 | 20.5% | 6.4% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.67 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 117 | 84 | 475 | 1964 | 409 | 150 | 49 | 72% | 4.1 | 20.8% | 7.6% | 13.2% | 2.5% | 3.58 | 3.68 | +9.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 35 | 200 | 828 | 172 | 63 | 21 | 72% | 4.1 | 20.8% | 7.6% | 13.2% | 2.5% | 3.58 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Wrobleski (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 23.0% | 8.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.09 | 20.2% | 13.6% | 144 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.39 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.13 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 87 | +0.74 | 3.39 | 300 | 81 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 80 |
| Nico Tellache L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 73 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 72 |
| Matt Tomshaw L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.95 | 13.8% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .318 | 3.49 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 401 | -0.46 | 2.95 | 681 | 71 |
| Dylan Dodd L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% | .338 | 4.05 | 26.4% | 21.5% | 100 | -0.83 | 3.41 | 452 | 71 |
| Eric Wooten L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 70 |
| Nick Additon L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.78 | 14.0% | 7.9% | 1.6% | .307 | 4.62 | 14.4% | 7.1% | 106 | +0.84 | 3.06 | 217 | 70 |
| Chipper Smith L 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 70 |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2024 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 152 | 69 |
| Dietrich Enns L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.31 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 1.8% | .280 | 5.74 | 15.4% | 6.6% | 266 | +2.43 | 2.80 | 740 | 69 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 69 |
| Justin Marks L 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 68 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2024 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 68 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .264 | 5.63 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 61 | +1.74 | 3.12 | 451 | 68 |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 67 |
| Carlos Peña L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.76 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 2.3% | .275 | 4.95 | 21.1% | 16.9% | 57 | +1.19 | 3.17 | 577 | 67 |
| Avery Weems L 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.13 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 5.0% | .323 | 5.19 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 38 | +0.06 | 2.46 | 227 | 67 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2023 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 67 |
| Connor Wietgrefe L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.26 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 200 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 73 | 21.2% | 7.1% | 1.10 | 4.19 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Trevor Gott ('23) | 4 | 51 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 0.79 | 3.97 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |