Justin Wrobleski
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
+0.5
WAR
Age 26
LHP
6'1" / 194 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.43
FIP4.18
xFIP4.80
SIERA5.20
K%22.9%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%14.5%
IP57
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p1012.0%
K%
p109.8%
xwOBA vs
p510.311
SL+3.8 (33%)
FB+3.6 (56%)
CH (2%)
SI (5%)
CU (7%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 13 | 10 | 22 | 87 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 25.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.91 | 0.98 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 25 | 23 | 102 | 420 | 109 | 35 | 6 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 1.9% | 2.90 | 3.68 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 28 | 24 | 132 | 555 | 130 | 47 | 16 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.17 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 35 | 12 | 118 | 503 | 123 | 39 | 13 | 23.3% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.26 | 3.59 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 3 | 2 | 17 | 63 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 9.5% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 2.12 | 3.30 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | LAD | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 4.18 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 57 | 230 | 39 | 19 | 4 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 1.8% | 3.56 | 3.69 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.37 | 4.24 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 55 | — | 55 | 234 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 20.3% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 4.31 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 19.8% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 53 | — | 53 | 222 | 43 | 19 | 6 | 19.3% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 40 | 19 | 6 | 18.7% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 37 | 18 | 6 | 18.0% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 34 | 18 | 6 | 17.4% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.71 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 31 | 17 | 6 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.84 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 28 | 17 | 6 | 15.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.98 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 25 | 16 | 5 | 15.2% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 5.24 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 71 | 391 | 1628 | 342 | 135 | 38 | 21.0% | 8.3% | 2.4% | 3.75 | 3.66 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 36 | 200 | 832 | 175 | 69 | 19 | 21.0% | 8.3% | 2.4% | 3.75 | 3.66 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Wrobleski (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.13 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.28 | 20.1% | 11.7% | 166 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| James Paxton L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .288 | 2.87 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.44 | 2.40 | 924 | 86 |
| Ozzie Mendez L 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .269 | 3.94 | 11.3% | 3.0% | 68 | -0.21 | 3.90 | 161 | 82 |
| Logan Darnell L 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.15 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 1.0% | .316 | 4.60 | 12.2% | 5.5% | 305 | +1.45 | 3.15 | 430 | 81 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.98 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | 5.21 | 18.9% | 3.9% | 67 | +1.23 | 3.98 | 118 | 81 |
| Jason Gurka L 2027 · 3.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.14 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 1.1% | .303 | 3.27 | 23.4% | 17.6% | 95 | +0.13 | 2.91 | 183 | 81 |
| Colton Johnson L 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.53 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.62 | 3.91 | 106 | 81 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.9% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.64 | 2.79 | 159 | 81 |
| Triston Polley L 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 17.8% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .331 | 4.53 | 17.4% | -0.3% | 22 | +0.38 | 4.15 | 151 | 81 |
| Jordan Carr L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.48 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 1.4% | .270 | 4.47 | 13.1% | 4.3% | 91 | +0.99 | 3.48 | 223 | 81 |
| Cam Alldred L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.70 | 19.2% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .318 | 4.65 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 140 | +0.95 | 3.70 | 332 | 81 |
| Patrick McCoy L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .336 | 4.31 | 15.4% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.51 | 3.80 | 113 | 80 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.50 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .282 | 4.14 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 87 | +0.64 | 3.50 | 300 | 80 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.27 | 16.9% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 172 | 80 |
| Hayden Howard L 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.76 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 1.9% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 200 | 80 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.57 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 61 | +1.52 | 3.09 | 451 | 80 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 21.2% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .241 | 4.78 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 137 | +1.37 | 3.41 | 315 | 80 |
| Juan Grullon L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 79 |
| Carson Skipper L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.79 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 176 | 79 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.07 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 0.8% | .248 | 3.28 | 22.8% | 13.5% | 146 | +0.21 | 2.87 | 204 | 79 |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.26 | 21.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | .272 | 5.26 | 13.4% | 3.4% | 67 | +1.00 | 3.88 | 256 | 79 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 0.872 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $6M | $10M | +$4M | ||