Justin Wrobleski

P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 27 LHP 6'1" / 194 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX3 levels	28	24	132	4.30	3.77	23.4%	8.5%	2.6	K 20.2% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.13
2025	25	MIX2 levels	35	12	118	4.26	3.44	24.5%	7.8%	1.6	K 23.1% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.58
2026	26	MIX2 levels	29	22	141	3.69	3.97	20.5%	5.1%	2.4	K 20.4% · BB 5.2% · FIP 3.95
2027PROJ	27	MLBLAD	17	17	102	4.23	4.22	21.3%	5.9%	1.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBLAD	14	14	87	4.35	4.38	21.2%	6.1%	1.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBLAD	12	12	75	4.47	4.54	20.6%	6.3%	0.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.872First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$2M2030Arb-2$2M2031Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo52

K%38

xwOBA vs38

Form4.61 ERA (proj 4.23) · K 29.0% (proj 21.3%) · BB 4.8% (proj 5.9%) ▲▲ last 60d · 14 IP through Oct 27

CompsCasey Fossum (age 27) · Jorge De La Rosa (age 27) · Alex Wood (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.23

FIP4.22

K%21.3%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%15.3%

Proj IP102

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$25M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p3820.4%

xwOBA vs

p380.326

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.872 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$11M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$3M	+$1M
2030	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$25M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	22	87	26	5	1	77%	1.7	25.1%	0.0%	25.1%	0.0%	2.91	0.98	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	22	87	26	5	1	77%	1.7	29.9%	5.7%	24.1%	1.1%	2.91	1.99	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	25	23	102	420	109	35	6	92%	4.1	20.0%	9.6%	10.4%	1.9%	2.90	3.66	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	25	23	102	420	109	35	6	92%	4.1	26.0%	8.3%	17.6%	1.4%	2.90	2.76	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	24	132	555	130	47	16	86%	4.7	20.2%	8.4%	11.9%	3.1%	4.30	4.13	+2.0
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	24	132	555	130	47	16	86%	4.7	20.2%	8.4%	11.9%	3.1%	4.30	4.13	+2.0
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	24	132	555	130	47	16	86%	4.7	23.4%	8.5%	15.0%	2.9%	4.30	3.77	+2.6
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	12	118	503	123	39	13	34%	3.4	23.1%	7.3%	15.8%	2.7%	4.26	3.58	+1.4
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	12	118	503	123	39	13	34%	3.4	23.1%	7.3%	15.8%	2.7%	4.26	3.58	+1.4
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	12	118	503	123	39	13	34%	3.4	24.5%	7.8%	16.7%	2.6%	4.26	3.44	+1.6
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	22	141	585	120	30	21	76%	4.9	20.4%	5.2%	15.2%	3.5%	3.69	3.95	+2.5
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	22	141	585	120	30	21	76%	4.9	20.4%	5.2%	15.2%	3.5%	3.69	3.95	+2.5
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	22	141	585	120	30	21	76%	4.9	20.5%	5.1%	15.4%	3.6%	3.69	3.97	+2.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			60	30	243	1012	220	62	36	50%	4.0	21.7%	6.1%	15.6%	3.6%	4.15	3.98	+4.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	LAD	17	17	102	431	92	26	14	100%	6.0	21.3%	5.9%	15.3%	3.3%	4.23	4.22	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	91	386	82	24	13	100%	6.1	21.2%	6.1%	15.1%	3.4%	4.27	4.30	+1.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	79	334	69	21	12	100%	6.1	20.6%	6.3%	14.3%	3.5%	4.39	4.46	+0.9
2030	30	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	67	282	56	19	10	100%	6.1	19.9%	6.6%	13.3%	3.7%	4.56	4.67	+0.6
2031	31	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	54	227	43	16	9	100%	6.0	19.1%	7.0%	12.2%	3.9%	4.76	4.90	+0.3
2032	32	MLB MLE	LAD	7	7	40	171	31	13	7	100%	5.8	18.3%	7.4%	11.0%	4.2%	5.00	5.16	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	87	367	78	22	13	100%	6.2	21.2%	6.1%	15.1%	3.5%	4.35	4.38	+1.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	LAD	12	12	75	317	65	20	12	100%	6.2	20.6%	6.3%	14.3%	3.6%	4.47	4.54	+0.8
2030	30	MLB CTX	LAD	10	10	63	266	53	18	10	100%	6.3	19.9%	6.6%	13.3%	3.9%	4.65	4.76	+0.5
2031	31	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	51	215	41	15	9	100%	6.4	19.1%	7.0%	12.2%	4.1%	4.85	4.99	+0.3
2032	32	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	38	160	29	12	7	100%	6.3	18.3%	7.4%	11.0%	4.4%	5.10	5.26	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		112	82	558	2341	487	149	87	73%	5.0	20.8%	6.4%	14.4%	3.7%	4.41	4.18	+8.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	30	200	839	175	53	31	73%	5.0	20.8%	6.4%	14.4%	3.7%	4.41	4.18	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		130	91	516	2150	454	154	59	70%	4.0	21.1%	7.2%	14.0%	2.7%	3.79	3.73	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	35	200	834	176	60	23	70%	4.0	21.1%	7.2%	14.0%	2.7%	3.79	3.73	+2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 52 IPFIP 4.35 → 4.73 (+0.38)K% 21.1% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.08%	—	×0.860	18.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.31%	—	×0.900	9.28%
HR / BF /BF	3.14%	÷0.956	×1.100	3.61%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 4.35 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATulsa Drillers · 68 IPFIP 2.38 → 2.89 (+0.51)K% 23.0% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.05%	—	×0.810	18.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.83%	—	×1.100	5.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.12%	÷1.063	×1.200	1.26%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 28 IPFIP 3.80 → 4.39 (+0.58)K% 31.8% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.82%	—	×0.860	27.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×0.900	12.27%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷0.896	×1.100	3.72%

Result: FIP 3.80 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Great Lakes Loons · 102 IPFIP 2.75 → 3.66 (+0.91)K% 26.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.95%	—	×0.770	19.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.150	9.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷0.951	×1.250	1.88%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 2.75 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Dodgers · 15 IPFIP -0.01 → 0.98 (+1.00)K% 36.8% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.84%	—	×0.680	25.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.912	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP -0.01 → 0.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 7 IPFIP 5.63 → 6.46 (+0.82)K% 16.7% → 12.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.740	12.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×1.180	19.67%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.247	×1.300	3.48%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 149).

Result: FIP 5.63 → 6.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Wrobleski (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.22	21.3%	5.9%	3.3%	—	4.46	20.6%	14.3%	237	+0.24	—	—	—
Casey Fossum L 2005 · 4.19 FIP	27	SP-	4.19	17.7%	7.9%	2.9%	.287	4.77	14.9%	5.8%	247	+0.58	3.50	782	68
Jorge De La Rosa L 2008 · 3.77 FIP	27	SP-	3.77	22.4%	10.3%	2.3%	.310	3.70	23.0%	13.2%	366	-0.07	3.24	1,537	67
Alex Wood L 2018 · 3.16 FIP	27	SP-	3.16	21.2%	5.5%	2.1%	.285	3.70	24.6%	18.1%	187	+0.54	2.66	1,258	66
Ben Shields L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	25	SP-	3.23	25.3%	8.2%	2.2%	.273	3.02	23.5%	13.3%	43	-0.21	3.02	147	66
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	66
Brant Hurter L 2024 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP-	3.80	19.7%	5.4%	3.1%	.298	3.08	21.7%	12.6%	98	-0.72	2.84	440	65
David Peterson L 2023 · 4.14 FIP	27	SP-	4.14	25.1%	10.7%	3.3%	.356	3.54	20.5%	11.2%	438	-0.60	2.81	1,078	65
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	64
Steven Brault L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	19.8%	10.1%	3.2%	.301	3.81	18.8%	8.2%	70	-0.66	3.12	691	63
Drew Parrish L 2024 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP-	4.66	20.2%	4.8%	4.9%	.290	4.93	15.1%	5.7%	70	+0.27	3.47	522	63
Daniel Lynch IV L 2024 · 4.14 FIP	27	SP-	4.14	18.1%	6.4%	3.2%	.268	4.53	15.7%	7.7%	154	+0.39	2.21	764	63
Manny Banuelos L 2018 · 3.48 FIP	27	SP-	3.48	23.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.338	5.89	18.7%	5.9%	51	+2.41	2.95	486	62
Matthew Boyd L 2018 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	22.4%	7.2%	4.0%	.252	4.32	26.2%	19.5%	324	+0.02	2.22	1,457	62
Ken Waldichuk L 2023 · 5.01 FIP	25	SP-	5.01	20.7%	11.0%	4.1%	.303	5.78	21.8%	6.9%	51	+0.77	3.51	432	62
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	61
Hogan Harris L 2024 · 4.46 FIP	27	SP-	4.46	20.3%	11.8%	2.9%	.312	3.42	26.7%	15.1%	150	-1.04	3.09	501	61
Matt Tomshaw L 2016 · 3.04 FIP	27	SP-	3.04	22.7%	5.4%	2.1%	.301	3.56	16.1%	11.0%	423	+0.52	3.04	681	60
Tyler Anderson L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.315	4.35	20.7%	12.2%	256	+0.33	3.10	1,288	60
Phil Pfeifer L 2019 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP-	3.61	21.9%	8.5%	2.4%	.298	5.65	19.5%	4.7%	35	+2.04	3.61	307	60
Patrick Corbin L 2016 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP-	4.54	18.7%	9.1%	3.4%	.317	3.12	27.0%	20.3%	592	-1.42	2.30	2,144	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	75	20.9%	6.4%	1.38	4.35
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Bob Lacey ('77-'84, 2 WAR*)	2.3	75	20.5%*	7.3%*	1.35*	4.11*
Carlos Villanueva ('16)	5.0	91	20.4%	7.6%	1.25	4.31
Craig Lefferts ('83-'94, 10 WAR*)	5.7	95	19.5%*	6.7%*	1.40*	3.93*
Tom Walker ('72-'77, 1 WAR*)	2.1	83	20.9%*	7.5%*	1.28*	4.32*
Jesse Chavez ('25)	5.7	82	21.4%	7.4%	1.32	4.27