Justin Wrobleski

Justin Wrobleski P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 26 LHP 6'1" / 194 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION135 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 94102vR 110

ERA4.00

FIP3.84

K%20.8%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%14.5%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 148 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5194.6

Whiff%

p1620.5%

p3620.1%

xwOBA vs

p340.331

SL+3.8 (32%)

FB+3.6 (57%)

CH (5%)

SI (8%)

CU (5%)

CT (1%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.872 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.4M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	22	87	26	5	1	77%	1.7	25.1%	0.0%	25.1%	0.0%	2.91	0.98	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	22	87	26	5	1	77%	1.7	29.9%	5.7%	24.1%	1.1%	2.91	1.99	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	25	23	102	420	109	35	6	92%	4.1	20.0%	9.6%	10.4%	1.9%	2.90	3.66	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	25	23	102	420	109	35	6	92%	4.1	20.0%	9.6%	10.4%	1.9%	2.90	3.66	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	25	23	102	420	109	35	6	92%	4.1	26.0%	8.3%	17.6%	1.4%	2.90	2.76	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	24	132	555	130	47	16	86%	4.7	20.0%	8.4%	11.6%	3.1%	4.30	4.15	+1.2
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	24	132	555	130	47	16	86%	4.7	20.0%	8.4%	11.6%	3.1%	4.30	4.15	+1.2
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	24	132	555	130	47	16	86%	4.7	23.4%	8.5%	15.0%	2.9%	4.30	3.77	+1.8
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	12	118	503	123	39	13	34%	3.4	22.9%	7.3%	15.6%	2.7%	4.26	3.60	+1.4
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	12	118	503	123	39	13	34%	3.4	22.9%	7.3%	15.6%	2.7%	4.26	3.60	+1.4
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	12	118	503	123	39	13	34%	3.4	24.5%	7.8%	16.7%	2.6%	4.26	3.44	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			56	29	236	986	213	62	36	52%	4.2	21.6%	6.3%	15.3%	3.7%	4.23	4.06	+2.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	25	21	135	559	113	30	21	84%	5.4	20.1%	5.4%	14.7%	3.6%	3.81	4.09	+1.3
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	25	21	135	559	113	30	21	84%	5.4	20.1%	5.4%	14.7%	3.6%	3.81	4.09	+1.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	LAD	1	0	1	7	2	0	0	0%	1.3	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	6.75	0.69	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	LAD	24	21	133	552	111	30	21	88%	5.6	20.1%	5.4%	14.7%	3.8%	3.78	4.18	+1.1
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	LAD	24	21	133	552	111	30	21	88%	5.6	20.1%	5.4%	14.7%	3.8%	3.78	4.18	+1.1
ROS	26	MLB MLE	LAD	2	2	13	56	12	3	2	100%	6.6	20.8%	6.3%	14.5%	3.1%	4.00	3.84	+0.2
ROS	26	MLB CTX	LAD	2	2	13	55	11	3	2	100%	6.5	20.8%	6.3%	14.5%	3.2%	4.07	3.91	+0.2
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	148	615	125	33	23	—	—	20.3%	5.5%	14.8%	3.7%	3.83	4.07	+1.5
FULL	26	MLB A+C	LAD	—	—	146	619	125	33	23	—	—	20.1%	5.4%	14.7%	3.7%	3.87	4.11	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	LAD	22	22	134	565	119	36	19	100%	6.1	21.0%	6.4%	14.6%	3.4%	4.45	4.40	+0.8
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAD	22	22	134	565	118	37	20	100%	6.1	20.9%	6.5%	14.4%	3.5%	4.47	4.49	+0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	LAD	21	21	128	540	110	36	20	100%	6.1	20.3%	6.8%	13.6%	3.7%	4.58	4.65	+0.4
2030	30	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	120	508	99	36	20	100%	6.0	19.6%	7.0%	12.6%	3.9%	4.74	4.85	+0.1
2031	31	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	112	473	89	35	19	100%	6.2	18.9%	7.4%	11.5%	4.1%	4.95	5.09	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	LAD	21	21	127	536	113	34	19	100%	6.0	21.0%	6.4%	14.6%	3.6%	4.53	4.48	+0.7
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAD	21	21	127	536	112	35	20	100%	6.0	20.9%	6.5%	14.4%	3.7%	4.55	4.57	+0.6
2029	29	MLB CTX	LAD	20	20	122	515	105	35	20	100%	6.1	20.3%	6.8%	13.6%	3.8%	4.67	4.74	+0.4
2030	30	MLB CTX	LAD	19	19	114	481	94	34	20	100%	6.0	19.6%	7.0%	12.6%	4.1%	4.83	4.94	+0.1
2031	31	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	106	448	84	33	19	100%	6.2	18.9%	7.4%	11.5%	4.3%	5.05	5.19	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		155	128	846	3561	733	237	136	83%	5.5	20.6%	6.6%	13.9%	3.8%	4.57	4.29	+6.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	30	200	842	173	56	32	83%	5.4	20.6%	6.6%	13.9%	3.8%	4.57	4.29	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		126	90	509	2124	444	154	59	71%	4.0	20.9%	7.2%	13.7%	2.8%	3.82	3.78	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	35	200	835	175	60	23	71%	4.0	20.9%	7.2%	13.7%	2.8%	3.82	3.78	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Wrobleski (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.15	22.7%	7.7%	2.9%	—	4.51	20.7%	14.2%	396	+0.36	—	—	—
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	77
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	72
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	71
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	70
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	69
Matt Tomshaw L 2015 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	13.8%	6.0%	2.2%	.318	3.57	16.0%	10.7%	401	-0.34	3.04	681	68
Jason Wheeler L 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	16.1%	5.8%	3.5%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	401	67
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	67
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	67
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	67
Dietrich Enns L 2017 · 3.26 FIP	26	SP-	3.26	19.7%	7.1%	1.7%	.280	5.55	15.4%	6.6%	266	+2.29	2.80	768	66
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	66
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	66
Tyler Skaggs L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SP	4.23	20.8%	7.7%	3.5%	.310	3.51	23.9%	16.0%	205	-0.72	3.18	372	66
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.1%	5.2%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	66
Keegan Akin L 2021 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	19.2%	9.1%	3.6%	.322	3.12	26.7%	21.0%	184	-1.49	2.62	743	65
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	65
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	65
Matt Moore L 2015 · 4.17 FIP	26	SP	4.17	21.9%	7.8%	3.5%	.323	4.44	19.7%	11.3%	475	+0.27	2.80	861	65
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	117	20.5%	6.9%	1.41	4.59
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38