Andrew Alvarez — OGILVIE

Andrew Alvarez P Washington Nationals

Age 27 LHP 6'3" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION83 act + 41 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 94103vR 113

ERA3.81

FIP4.09

K%21.9%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP41

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p6327.3%

p6525.0%

xwOBA vs

p420.321

FB+1.0 (43%)

SI (14%)

CU (30%)

CH (3%)

SL (24%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.2M
2029	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$6M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$16M	+$10M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	22	MIX	2 levels	7	0	9	38	12	4	0	0%	1.3	31.6%	10.5%	21.1%	0.0%	1.00	1.77	—
2021	22	MIX	2 levels	7	0	9	38	12	4	0	0%	1.3	31.6%	10.5%	21.1%	0.0%	1.00	1.77	—
2022	23	MIX	2 levels	28	9	85	387	103	34	4	32%	3.0	19.9%	10.3%	9.7%	1.1%	5.00	3.35	—
2022	23	MIX	2 levels	28	9	85	387	103	34	4	32%	3.0	26.6%	8.8%	17.8%	1.0%	5.00	2.49	—
2023	24	MIX	2 levels	26	22	129	526	116	43	9	85%	5.0	17.1%	9.3%	7.8%	2.1%	2.99	3.97	—
2023	24	MIX	2 levels	26	22	129	526	116	43	9	85%	5.0	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	1.7%	2.99	3.21	—
2024	25	MIX	2 levels	26	26	132	561	114	53	13	100%	5.1	17.2%	10.1%	7.1%	2.7%	3.90	4.40	—
2024	25	MIX	2 levels	26	26	132	561	114	53	13	100%	5.1	20.3%	9.4%	10.9%	2.3%	3.90	3.86	—
2025	26	MIX	2 levels	30	30	146	628	134	62	14	100%	4.9	19.2%	10.3%	8.9%	2.6%	3.81	4.23	+2.0
2025	26	MIX	2 levels	30	30	146	628	134	62	14	100%	4.9	21.3%	9.9%	11.5%	2.2%	3.81	3.78	+2.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	Washington Nationals	20	13	83	358	98	38	9	65%	4.2	25.9%	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	4.55	3.78	+1.2
ROS	27	MLB	WSH	6	6	41	173	38	18	5	100%	6.8	21.9%	10.6%	11.2%	2.7%	3.81	4.09	+0.2
ROS	27	MLB	WSH	6	6	41	173	38	18	5	100%	6.8	21.9%	10.6%	11.2%	2.7%	3.81	4.09	+0.2
2026 TOT	27	MLB	WSH	—	—	124	531	136	56	14	—	—	25.6%	10.6%	15.0%	2.6%	4.31	3.88	+2.2
2026 FULL	27	MLB	WSH	—	—	90	380	136	56	14	—	—	35.8%	14.8%	20.9%	3.6%	5.94	3.94	+1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	WSH	15	15	90	380	79	39	9	100%	6.0	20.7%	10.3%	10.4%	2.4%	4.19	4.34	+0.9
2028	29	MLB	WSH	14	14	86	363	74	38	9	100%	6.1	20.2%	10.4%	9.9%	2.6%	4.37	4.49	+0.6
2029	30	MLB	WSH	13	13	81	341	67	36	10	100%	6.2	19.6%	10.5%	9.1%	2.8%	4.56	4.69	+0.3
2030	31	MLB	WSH	13	13	75	318	67	32	10	100%	5.8	20.9%	10.0%	10.9%	3.0%	4.60	4.64	+0.2
2031	32	MLB	WSH	12	12	70	294	59	31	10	100%	5.8	20.2%	10.4%	9.7%	3.3%	4.78	4.89	-0.1
2032	33	MLB	WSH	11	11	64	270	52	29	10	100%	5.8	19.3%	10.9%	8.4%	3.5%	5.02	5.17	-0.4
2027	28	MLB	WSH	14	14	86	363	75	38	9	100%	6.1	20.7%	10.3%	10.4%	2.4%	4.19	4.34	+0.8
2028	29	MLB	WSH	14	14	82	346	70	36	9	100%	5.9	20.2%	10.4%	9.9%	2.6%	4.37	4.49	+0.5
2029	30	MLB	WSH	13	13	77	325	64	34	9	100%	5.9	19.6%	10.5%	9.1%	2.8%	4.56	4.69	+0.2
2030	31	MLB	WSH	12	12	72	304	64	30	9	100%	6.0	20.9%	10.0%	10.9%	3.0%	4.60	4.64	+0.1
2031	32	MLB	WSH	11	11	66	279	56	29	9	100%	6.0	20.2%	10.4%	9.7%	3.3%	4.78	4.89	-0.2
2032	33	MLB	WSH	10	10	61	258	50	28	9	100%	6.1	19.3%	10.9%	8.4%	3.5%	5.02	5.17	-0.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			98	91	556	2351	488	245	62	93%	5.7	20.8%	10.4%	10.4%	2.6%	4.36	4.10	+8.4
/ 200 IP	—			35	33	200	846	176	88	22	93%	5.7	20.8%	10.4%	10.4%	2.6%	4.36	4.10	+3.0
Career	—			137	100	584	2498	489	253	57	73%	4.3	19.6%	10.1%	9.4%	2.3%	3.88	3.97	+9.7
/ 200 IP	—			47	34	200	855	167	87	19	73%	4.3	19.6%	10.1%	9.4%	2.3%	3.88	3.97	+3.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Alvarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	17.7%	10.5%	2.7%	—	4.50	20.2%	9.8%	257	-0.31	—	—	—
Mike Minor L 2027 · 5.50 FIP	28	SP	5.50	19.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.330	3.78	23.2%	16.4%	443	-1.72	2.42	807	68
Nate Peterson L 2025 · 3.67 FIP	26	SP-	3.67	17.2%	11.2%	1.1%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	288	66
Matt Lujan L 2026 · 4.90 FIP	27	SP	4.90	18.5%	11.3%	3.5%	.319	5.13	14.3%	7.9%	70	+0.23	4.25	227	65
Roy Merritt L 2029 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP-	4.01	13.3%	5.9%	2.3%	.293	3.88	16.2%	10.4%	116	-0.13	3.88	129	64
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP-	4.77	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	154	64
Marlon Arias L 2029 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	16.8%	12.2%	1.7%	.330	3.89	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.25	3.89	154	63
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 3.97 FIP	25	SP	3.97	18.7%	11.7%	1.8%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	245	63
T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 4.13 FIP	27	SP-	4.13	16.2%	9.2%	2.2%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	300	63
Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP	27	SP-	4.53	17.4%	8.8%	3.3%	.311	4.31	17.2%	9.9%	300	-0.22	3.88	523	63
Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 4.77 FIP	27	SP-	4.77	12.6%	10.7%	2.5%	.278	5.20	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.43	4.77	118	62
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP-	4.91	19.6%	13.9%	3.1%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	200	62
Nico Tellache L 2026 · 3.89 FIP	27	SP-	3.89	16.3%	7.3%	2.3%	.373	4.65	13.4%	4.8%	78	+0.76	3.89	160	62
Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP	27	SP-	4.39	17.1%	9.1%	2.9%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	310	61
Taylor Varnell L 2025 · 4.52 FIP	26	SP	4.52	20.1%	10.3%	3.3%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	61
Braeden Fausnaught L 2025 · 4.91 FIP	26	SP	4.91	17.6%	7.8%	4.2%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	242	61
Jackson Wolf L 2026 · 4.69 FIP	27	SP-	4.69	18.6%	9.7%	3.5%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	572	61
Chipper Smith L 2024 · 3.83 FIP	25	SP-	3.83	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	109	60
Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.56 FIP	27	SP-	4.56	15.4%	10.5%	2.6%	.323	3.78	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.78	3.75	324	60
Cameron Roegner L 2025 · 3.79 FIP	26	SP-	3.79	17.2%	9.6%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	319	60
Tyler Gilbert L 2026 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	18.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.253	4.49	19.9%	11.7%	222	+0.57	2.61	698	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7	79	19.8%	10.4%	1.11	4.55
Trevor Cahill ('21)	7	67	21.3%	10.1%	1.29	4.66
Junior Guerra ('21)	6	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Adam Conley ('19)	5	83	19.7%	9.5%	1.17	4.82
Wily Peralta ('22)	7	71	16.1%	9.8%	1.22	4.66
Matt Moore ('24)	8	98	20.5%	9.3%	1.33	4.82
Steven Brault ('21)	6	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77