Andrew Alvarez — OGILVIE

Andrew Alvarez P Washington Nationals

Age 27 LHP 6'3" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION136 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 92100vR 108

ERA3.74

FIP3.97

K%21.7%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 145 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p5325.7%

p5523.2%

xwOBA vs

p480.314

FB+1.0 (43%)

SI (14%)

CU (31%)

CH (5%)

SL (21%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.6M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	9	38	12	4	0	0%	1.3	31.6%	10.5%	21.1%	0.0%	1.00	1.77	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	9	38	12	4	0	0%	1.3	31.6%	10.5%	21.1%	0.0%	1.00	1.77	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	9	85	387	103	34	4	32%	3.0	19.9%	10.3%	9.7%	1.2%	5.00	3.39	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	9	85	387	103	34	4	32%	3.0	26.6%	8.8%	17.8%	1.0%	5.00	2.49	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	129	526	116	43	9	85%	5.0	17.1%	9.3%	7.8%	2.1%	2.99	3.96	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	129	526	116	43	9	85%	5.0	17.1%	9.3%	7.8%	2.1%	2.99	3.96	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	129	526	116	43	9	85%	5.0	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	1.7%	2.99	3.21	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	132	561	114	53	13	100%	5.1	16.7%	9.2%	7.5%	2.7%	3.90	4.32	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	132	561	114	53	13	100%	5.1	16.7%	9.2%	7.5%	2.7%	3.90	4.32	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	132	561	114	53	13	100%	5.1	20.3%	9.4%	10.9%	2.3%	3.90	3.86	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	146	628	134	62	14	100%	4.9	18.3%	9.0%	9.2%	2.5%	3.81	4.09	+1.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	146	628	134	62	14	100%	4.9	18.3%	9.0%	9.2%	2.5%	3.81	4.09	+1.4
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	146	628	134	62	14	100%	4.9	21.3%	9.9%	11.5%	2.2%	3.81	3.78	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			28	20	125	525	119	57	6	71%	4.5	22.7%	10.9%	11.8%	1.1%	3.16	3.19	+2.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	30	22	136	573	144	63	12	73%	4.5	23.8%	10.7%	13.1%	2.2%	3.84	3.66	+2.0
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	30	22	136	573	144	63	12	73%	4.5	23.8%	10.7%	13.1%	2.2%	3.84	3.66	+2.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	WSH	7	7	34	146	45	16	7	100%	4.9	30.8%	11.0%	19.9%	4.8%	5.29	4.52	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	WSH	23	15	102	427	99	47	5	65%	4.4	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	1.2%	3.35	3.18	+2.2
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	WSH	23	15	102	427	99	47	5	65%	4.4	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	1.2%	3.35	3.18	+2.2
ROS	27	MLB MLE	WSH	1	1	9	36	8	4	1	100%	8.6	21.7%	10.1%	11.6%	2.6%	3.74	3.97	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	WSH	1	1	9	38	8	4	1	100%	9.0	21.7%	10.1%	11.6%	2.6%	3.74	3.97	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	145	609	152	67	13	—	—	24.9%	10.9%	14.0%	2.1%	3.83	3.68	+2.1
FULL	27	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	111	467	152	67	13	—	—	32.5%	14.3%	18.2%	2.8%	5.01	3.68	+1.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	90	380	78	40	8	100%	6.0	20.6%	10.4%	10.1%	2.1%	4.08	4.21	+0.7
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	86	363	73	39	8	100%	6.1	20.0%	10.7%	9.3%	2.2%	4.25	4.37	+0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	81	341	66	37	8	100%	6.2	19.3%	11.0%	8.3%	2.4%	4.45	4.58	+0.3
2030	31	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	75	318	65	33	8	100%	5.8	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	2.7%	4.50	4.54	+0.3
2031	32	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	70	294	58	32	9	100%	5.8	19.7%	10.9%	8.8%	2.9%	4.67	4.79	+0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	86	363	75	38	8	100%	6.1	20.6%	10.4%	10.1%	2.1%	4.08	4.21	+0.7
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	82	346	69	37	8	100%	5.9	20.0%	10.7%	9.3%	2.2%	4.25	4.37	+0.5
2029	30	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	77	325	63	36	8	100%	5.9	19.3%	11.0%	8.3%	2.4%	4.45	4.58	+0.3
2030	31	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	72	304	62	32	8	100%	6.0	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	2.7%	4.50	4.54	+0.3
2031	32	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	66	279	55	30	8	100%	6.0	19.7%	10.9%	8.8%	2.9%	4.67	4.79	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		93	85	516	2173	450	233	46	91%	5.5	20.7%	10.7%	10.0%	2.1%	4.07	3.88	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	33	200	843	175	90	18	91%	5.5	20.7%	10.7%	10.0%	2.1%	4.07	3.88	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		147	109	637	2713	524	263	59	74%	4.3	19.3%	9.7%	9.6%	2.2%	3.79	3.89	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	34	200	852	164	82	19	74%	4.3	19.3%	9.7%	9.6%	2.2%	3.79	3.89	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Alvarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	17.1%	9.4%	2.7%	—	4.38	20.0%	9.3%	257	-0.31	—	—	—
Mike Minor L 2016 · 5.63 FIP	28	SP	5.63	19.2%	11.8%	4.8%	.330	3.76	23.2%	16.4%	443	-1.87	2.43	807	66
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	65
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	65
Matt Lujan L 2016 · 5.05 FIP	27	SP	5.05	18.5%	11.3%	3.8%	.319	4.69	14.3%	7.9%	70	-0.36	4.06	227	64
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	63
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	63
Derek Holland L 2015 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	16.7%	6.1%	4.3%	.270	4.63	18.8%	9.6%	414	-0.20	3.75	686	61
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	61
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	61
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.79	18.9%	3.1%	13	+1.10	3.85	176	61
Cameron Roegner L 2019 · 3.81 FIP	26	SP-	3.81	17.2%	9.6%	1.7%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	319	60
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	60
Tyler Gilbert L 2021 · 3.95 FIP	27	SP-	3.95	18.4%	8.8%	2.4%	.253	4.51	19.1%	11.6%	222	+0.56	2.61	708	60
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	60
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	60
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	59
Cade Gibson L 2023 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP	4.57	15.0%	8.5%	3.0%	.306	3.43	18.9%	9.4%	222	-1.14	3.13	340	59
Ben Holmes L 2019 · 5.57 FIP	27	SP	5.57	19.7%	11.1%	5.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	451	59
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	59
Zach Penrod L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	17.3%	14.2%	1.5%	.263	4.46	21.1%	6.8%	141	+0.19	3.41	174	58

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	82	19.5%	10.5%	0.96	4.39
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32