Andrew Alvarez

P Washington Nationals

Age 28 LHP 6'3" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	26	26	132	3.90	3.86	20.3%	9.4%	—	K 17.0% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.29
2025	26	MIX2 levels	30	30	146	3.81	3.78	21.3%	9.9%	2.8	K 18.8% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.05
2026	27	MIX2 levels	32	24	147	3.87	3.54	25.7%	10.8%	3.3	K 24.7% · BB 10.6% · FIP 3.66
2027PROJ	28	MLBWSH	10	10	58	4.13	4.39	21.0%	10.4%	0.7
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBWSH	10	10	62	4.22	4.28	22.4%	9.8%	0.8
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBWSH	8	8	51	4.38	4.48	21.7%	10.1%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.121First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$1M2030Arb-2$2M2031Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%60

xwOBA vs47

FB Velo18

Form2.57 ERA (proj 4.13) · K 29.8% (proj 21.0%) · BB 11.4% (proj 10.4%) ▲▲ last 60d · 28 IP through Oct 27

CompsDanny Wirchansky (age 27) · Matt Tracy (age 28) · James Gillheeney (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.13

FIP4.39

K%21.0%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%10.7%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1892.2

Whiff%

p5726.4%

p6024.1%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.121 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.7M
2030	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	9	38	12	4	0	0%	1.3	31.6%	10.5%	21.1%	0.0%	1.00	1.77	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	9	38	12	4	0	0%	1.3	31.6%	10.5%	21.1%	0.0%	1.00	1.77	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	9	85	387	103	34	4	32%	3.0	19.9%	10.3%	9.7%	1.2%	5.00	3.39	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	9	85	387	103	34	4	32%	3.0	26.6%	8.8%	17.8%	1.0%	5.00	2.49	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	129	526	116	43	9	85%	5.0	17.1%	9.3%	7.8%	2.1%	2.99	3.96	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	129	526	116	43	9	85%	5.0	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	1.7%	2.99	3.21	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	132	561	114	53	13	100%	5.1	17.0%	9.2%	7.8%	2.7%	3.90	4.29	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	132	561	114	53	13	100%	5.1	17.0%	9.2%	7.8%	2.7%	3.90	4.29	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	132	561	114	53	13	100%	5.1	20.3%	9.4%	10.9%	2.3%	3.90	3.86	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	146	628	134	62	14	100%	4.9	18.8%	9.0%	9.8%	2.5%	3.81	4.05	+2.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	146	628	134	62	14	100%	4.9	18.8%	9.0%	9.8%	2.5%	3.81	4.05	+2.3
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	146	628	134	62	14	100%	4.9	21.3%	9.9%	11.5%	2.2%	3.81	3.78	+2.8
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	24	147	619	159	67	14	75%	4.6	24.7%	10.6%	14.1%	2.4%	3.87	3.66	+3.1
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	24	147	619	159	67	14	75%	4.6	24.7%	10.6%	14.1%	2.4%	3.87	3.66	+3.1
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	24	147	619	159	67	14	75%	4.6	25.7%	10.8%	14.9%	2.3%	3.87	3.54	+3.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			30	22	136	571	134	61	8	73%	4.5	23.5%	10.7%	12.8%	1.4%	3.24	3.24	+3.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	WSH	10	10	58	245	52	25	6	100%	5.8	21.0%	10.4%	10.7%	2.5%	4.13	4.39	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	65	275	62	27	7	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.8%	12.7%	2.6%	4.22	4.28	+0.9
2029	30	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	54	228	49	23	6	100%	6.0	21.7%	10.1%	11.7%	2.8%	4.38	4.48	+0.6
2030	31	MLB MLE	WSH	7	7	43	181	38	19	6	100%	6.1	21.0%	10.4%	10.6%	3.1%	4.58	4.71	+0.3
2031	32	MLB MLE	WSH	5	5	32	134	27	14	4	100%	6.3	20.2%	10.8%	9.4%	3.3%	4.81	4.97	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	62	262	59	26	7	100%	6.2	22.4%	9.8%	12.7%	2.6%	4.22	4.28	+0.8
2029	30	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	51	215	47	22	6	100%	6.4	21.7%	10.1%	11.7%	2.8%	4.38	4.48	+0.5
2030	31	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	41	173	36	18	5	100%	5.9	21.0%	10.4%	10.6%	3.1%	4.58	4.71	+0.3
2031	32	MLB CTX	WSH	5	5	30	127	26	14	4	100%	6.0	20.2%	10.8%	9.4%	3.3%	4.81	4.97	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	53	320	1347	301	140	31	87%	5.2	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	2.3%	3.93	3.77	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	33	200	842	188	88	19	87%	5.3	22.4%	10.4%	12.0%	2.3%	3.93	3.77	+3.9
Career	—	MLE		149	111	648	2759	545	267	61	74%	4.3	19.8%	9.7%	10.1%	2.2%	3.79	3.87	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	34	200	852	168	82	19	74%	4.3	19.8%	9.7%	10.1%	2.2%	3.79	3.87	+3.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 34 IPFIP 4.52 → 5.01 (+0.49)K% 30.8% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.82%	—	×0.860	26.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.96%	—	×0.900	9.86%
HR / BF /BF	4.79%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.27%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.52 → 5.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 123 IPFIP 3.87 → 4.20 (+0.33)K% 21.5% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.51%	—	×0.860	18.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.81%	—	×0.900	8.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.45%	÷0.960	×1.100	2.81%

Result: FIP 3.87 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARochester Red Wings · 79 IPFIP 4.25 → 4.51 (+0.25)K% 17.7% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.73%	—	×0.860	15.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.59%	—	×0.900	8.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.62%	÷0.986	×1.100	2.92%

Result: FIP 4.25 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 53 IPFIP 3.22 → 3.94 (+0.72)K% 24.4% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.42%	—	×0.810	19.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.22%	—	×1.100	10.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.84%	÷0.990	×1.200	2.23%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 3.22 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 103 IPFIP 2.65 → 3.44 (+0.79)K% 23.1% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.13%	—	×0.770	17.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.71%	—	×1.150	8.87%
HR / BF /BF	0.96%	÷0.913	×1.250	1.32%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 2.65 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAHarrisburg Senators · 26 IPFIP 5.31 → 5.91 (+0.60)K% 18.0% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.02%	—	×0.810	14.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.91%	—	×1.100	10.90%
HR / BF /BF	4.50%	÷1.115	×1.200	4.85%

Result: FIP 5.31 → 5.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFredericksburg Nationals · 56 IPFIP 2.49 → 3.47 (+0.98)K% 28.7% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.69%	—	×0.740	21.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.16%	—	×1.180	10.81%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷1.074	×1.300	1.45%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 2.49 → 3.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 29 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.25 (+0.65)K% 22.8% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.79%	—	×0.770	17.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.09%	—	×1.150	9.30%
HR / BF /BF	0.74%	÷1.114	×1.250	0.82%

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Alvarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	21.0%	10.4%	2.5%	—	4.46	21.8%	11.8%	162	+0.07	—	—	—
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	69
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	68
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	68
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	68
Hogan Harris L 2024 · 4.46 FIP	27	SP-	4.46	20.3%	11.8%	2.9%	.312	3.42	26.7%	15.1%	150	-1.04	3.09	501	68
Ben Shields L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	25	SP-	3.23	25.3%	8.2%	2.2%	.273	3.02	23.5%	13.3%	43	-0.21	3.02	147	67
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	65
Kyle Hart L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	28	SP	4.88	17.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.262	4.52	18.3%	9.3%	172	-0.36	3.60	886	65
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	64
Zach Logue L 2024 · 3.67 FIP	28	SP-	3.67	19.7%	6.4%	2.6%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	700	63
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	63
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	63
Chris Narveson L 2010 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	18.9%	7.7%	2.8%	.296	4.01	18.0%	8.8%	162	+0.01	4.00	625	63
Phil Pfeifer L 2019 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP-	3.61	21.9%	8.5%	2.4%	.298	5.65	19.5%	4.7%	35	+2.04	3.61	307	62
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	62
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	62
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	62
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	62
Nate Fisher L 2023 · 5.47 FIP	27	SP-	5.47	15.1%	9.1%	4.5%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	1.42	229	62
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	56	22.1%	10.4%	0.90	3.97
Dave Geisel ('78-'85, 2 WAR*)	1.0	42	23.5%*	10.6%*	0.84*	4.12*
Tyler Thornburg ('22)	1.4	48	23.5%	10.4%	1.06	3.46
Rich Garces ('02)	1.7	49	20.1%	11.1%	0.84	3.74
Tom Wilhelmsen ('17)	1.9	55	20.9%	10.6%	0.77	3.53
Ray Searage ('81-'90, 4 WAR*)	1.4	41	21.0%*	10.8%*	0.84*	3.70*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*