Andrew Alvarez
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 27
LHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.0 · 2027
ERA3.67
FIP4.58
xFIP1.79
SIERA1.56
K%19.4%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%9.4%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2027
K†4545
FB Velo
p1091.3
Whiff%
p2822.2%
K%
p3820.4%
xwOBA vs
p900.265
FB+1.0 (44%)
SI (16%)
CU (37%)
SL (15%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 7 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 28 | 9 | 85 | 387 | 103 | 34 | 4 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 1.2% | 5.00 | 3.40 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 26 | 22 | 129 | 526 | 116 | 43 | 9 | 17.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | 2.99 | 3.96 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 26 | 26 | 132 | 561 | 114 | 53 | 13 | 17.2% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 30 | 30 | 146 | 628 | 134 | 62 | 14 | 19.2% | 10.3% | 2.5% | 3.81 | 4.17 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 4 | 4 | 19 | 81 | 27 | 10 | 4 | 29.3% | 13.0% | 5.4% | 4.66 | 5.25 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | WSH | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 39 | 20 | 5 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 3.67 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 67 | 284 | 66 | 30 | 9 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 3.95 | 4.77 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 99 | 50 | 14 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.57 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 118 | 496 | 96 | 48 | 14 | 19.3% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 91 | 47 | 14 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.69 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 85 | 46 | 14 | 18.4% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.79 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 79 | 44 | 13 | 17.8% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.83 | 4.90 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 73 | 43 | 13 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.95 | 5.03 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 66 | 42 | 13 | 16.4% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 5.08 | 5.17 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 60 | 40 | 13 | 15.7% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 5.22 | 5.32 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 53 | 39 | 12 | 14.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 5.38 | 5.48 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 121 | 91 | 520 | 2221 | 420 | 224 | 51 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 2.3% | 3.81 | 4.04 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 35 | 200 | 854 | 161 | 86 | 20 | 18.9% | 10.1% | 2.3% | 3.81 | 4.04 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Alvarez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.63 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 352 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Zac Rosscup L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 79 |
| Lucas Luetge L 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.14 | 14.0% | 10.4% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.16 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 87 | -0.98 | 2.60 | 430 | 79 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.79 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .321 | 3.32 | 19.2% | 13.8% | 66 | -0.47 | 2.89 | 101 | 78 |
| Joe Jacques L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 15.5% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .282 | 3.47 | 19.3% | 10.2% | 160 | -0.92 | 3.01 | 332 | 77 |
| Bennett Sousa L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.23 | 20.2% | 9.7% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.90 | 29.7% | 21.5% | 70 | -1.33 | 2.59 | 250 | 76 |
| Mike Minor L 2027 · 5.65 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.65 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.9% | .330 | 3.73 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.92 | 2.38 | 807 | 76 |
| Danny Coulombe L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.76 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .271 | 4.55 | 26.6% | 17.6% | 88 | +0.79 | 2.48 | 461 | 76 |
| David Rollins L 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.50 | 18.0% | 12.1% | 4.3% | .260 | 5.70 | 15.9% | 12.5% | 20 | +0.20 | 3.60 | 132 | 74 |
| Haylen Green L 2024 · 4.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.09 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 74 |
| Ian Krol L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .347 | 3.76 | 23.9% | 13.3% | 90 | +0.19 | 2.81 | 344 | 74 |
| Sam Freeman L 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.3% | .265 | 3.56 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 166 | -0.67 | 3.06 | 299 | 74 |
| Tommy Layne L 2029 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 74 |
| Josh Edgin L 2028 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | .359 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.20 | 3.62 | 113 | 74 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 2.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 141 | 73 |
| Josh Maciejewski L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.57 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.15 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 143 | +0.58 | 2.87 | 378 | 73 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.36 | 17.7% | 11.0% | 2.5% | .289 | 5.80 | 19.8% | 2.0% | 40 | +1.44 | 3.98 | 118 | 73 |
| Bryan Harper L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 19.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .197 | 4.65 | 14.9% | 1.0% | 46 | +0.46 | 4.19 | 133 | 73 |
| Christian Friedrich L 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.77 | 16.7% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .355 | 3.86 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 129 | +0.09 | 3.77 | 188 | 73 |
| Derek Holland L 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.86 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | .270 | 4.63 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 414 | -0.23 | 3.76 | 686 | 72 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 72 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$7M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $4M | +0.8 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $5M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $9M | $20M | +$10M | ||