Alec Burleson — OGILVIE

Alec Burleson1B St. Louis Cardinals

Age 27 L/L 6'0" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 3.169 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION398 act + 265 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 65113vR 132

AVG/OBP/SLG.269 / .330 / .439

PA265

HR9

K%15

BB%8

BABIP288

ISO170

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

Whiff%

906.5%

xwOBA

860.350

POWER50

Barrel%

558.9

Avg EV

7390.7

Bat Spd

5571.9

EYE40

Chase%

7626.7%

SPEED35

Sprint

1225.6

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1253 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

302

951

—

wRC+

132

▶▶R

wOBA

262

358

▶▶R

ISO

106

177

▶▶R

BABIP

243

308

▶▶R

13.9%

13.5%

▶R

BB%

4.6%

7.5%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.169 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$1M	+0.9	$4M	+$2M
2027	Arb-2	$6M	+2.0	$15M	+$10M
2028	Arb-3	$7M	+1.7	$12M	+$6M
Totals		$14M		$30M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	AA	3 teams	—	503	471	109	14	0	19	28	136	0	3	1	231	275	382	657	151	281	27	6	281	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AA	3 teams	—	503	456	123	18	0	22	42	101	0	3	1	270	331	454	785	184	300	20	8	345	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA	2 teams	—	523	491	128	21	1	16	23	94	3	5	0	261	298	405	703	145	289	18	4	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA	2 teams	—	523	480	152	26	1	21	34	76	3	5	0	317	366	506	872	190	337	15	7	380	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	347	318	77	20	1	8	23	45	3	3	1	242	299	387	686	145	258	13	7	302	89	-4	+0	-8	-4	+10	-0.6
2023	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	347	315	77	20	1	8	23	45	3	3	1	244	299	390	690	146	261	13	7	304	91	-3	+0	-8	-4	+10	-0.5
2024	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	595	549	147	20	0	21	35	76	4	9	4	268	316	419	735	151	275	13	6	321	104	+2	+0	-7	-6	+17	0.6
2024	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	595	547	147	20	0	21	35	76	4	9	4	269	316	420	737	152	276	13	6	324	106	+4	+0	-7	-6	+17	0.7
2025	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	546	499	144	26	2	18	39	79	3	5	1	289	344	457	801	168	310	14	7	347	124	+15	+1	-7	-10	+15	1.4
2025	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	546	497	144	26	2	18	39	79	3	5	1	290	344	459	803	169	312	14	7	352	128	+17	+1	-7	-10	+15	1.6
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	27	MLB	STL	—	398	359	98	23	1	15	32	60	4	3	0	273	339	468	807	195	289	15	8	347	124	+11	+1	-2	-7	+11	1.3
YTD	27	MLB	STL	—	398	359	98	23	1	15	32	60	4	3	0	273	339	468	807	195	289	15	8	354	129	+13	+1	-2	-7	+11	1.6
ROS	27	MLB	STL	100%	265	241	65	12	1	9	20	39	2	2	0	269	330	439	770	170	284	15	8	339	118	+5	+0	+1	-5	+8	1.0
ROS	27	MLB	STL	100%	265	241	65	12	1	9	20	39	2	2	0	270	331	440	771	170	284	15	8	333	113	+4	+0	+1	-5	+8	0.8
FULL	27	MLB	STL	—	663	600	163	35	2	24	52	99	6	5	0	272	336	457	793	185	289	15	8	341	119	+15	+1	-2	-12	+19	2.1
TOT	27	MLB	STL	—	663	600	163	35	2	24	52	99	6	5	0	272	336	456	792	185	289	15	8	344	121	+16	+1	-2	-12	+19	2.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	STL	100%	650	591	157	29	1	23	49	96	5	5	1	266	327	435	762	169	282	15	8	337	116	+12	+1	+2	-12	+18	2.1
2028	29	MLB	STL	100%	637	579	153	28	1	22	48	96	5	5	1	264	326	430	756	166	281	15	8	335	115	+11	+1	+1	-11	+18	1.9
2029	30	MLB	STL	100%	624	566	148	27	1	21	48	95	5	4	1	261	325	424	749	163	280	15	8	332	112	+9	+0	+0	-11	+18	1.6
2030	31	MLB	STL	100%	612	555	144	26	1	20	47	95	5	4	1	259	323	418	741	159	276	16	8	327	108	+6	+0	-1	-11	+17	1.2
2031	32	MLB	STL	100%	600	544	137	24	0	19	46	96	5	3	1	252	316	401	717	149	272	16	8	320	103	+2	+0	-1	-11	+17	0.7
2032	33	MLB	STL	100%	517	469	115	20	0	16	39	85	4	2	0	245	309	390	699	145	266	16	8	311	96	-2	+0	-2	-9	+15	0.1
2033	34	MLB	STL	100%	437	398	94	15	0	13	33	75	3	1	0	236	300	372	671	136	259	17	8	301	88	-6	+0	-3	-8	+12	-0.5
2027	28	MLB	STL	100%	650	591	157	29	1	23	49	96	5	5	1	266	327	435	762	169	282	15	8	331	111	+8	+1	+2	-12	+18	1.8
2028	29	MLB	STL	100%	637	579	153	28	1	22	48	96	5	5	1	264	326	430	756	166	281	15	8	329	110	+7	+1	+1	-11	+18	1.5
2029	30	MLB	STL	100%	624	566	148	27	1	21	48	95	5	4	1	261	325	424	749	163	279	15	8	326	107	+5	+0	+0	-11	+18	1.2
2030	31	MLB	STL	100%	612	555	144	26	1	20	47	95	5	4	1	259	323	418	741	159	276	16	8	321	104	+2	+0	-1	-11	+17	0.9
2031	32	MLB	STL	100%	600	544	137	24	0	19	46	96	5	3	1	252	316	401	717	149	272	16	8	314	98	-1	+0	-1	-11	+17	0.4
2032	33	MLB	STL	100%	517	469	115	20	0	16	39	85	4	2	0	245	309	390	699	145	266	16	8	305	92	-5	+0	-2	-9	+15	-0.1
2033	34	MLB	STL	100%	437	398	94	15	0	13	33	75	3	1	0	236	300	372	671	136	259	17	8	295	84	-8	+0	-3	-8	+12	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5883	5350	1390	248	8	191	432	886	44	44	11	260	320	416	736	156	278	15	7	321	104	+28	+4	-28	-103	+167	6.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	153	27	1	21	48	98	5	5	1	259	320	415	734	156	277	15	7	321	104	+3	+1	-3	-11	+18	0.8
Career	—			—	6856	6271	1618	282	9	225	478	1107	47	51	12	258	315	413	729	155	280	16	7	321	104	+29	+5	-28	-112	+194	9.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	153	27	1	21	45	105	4	5	1	257	314	412	725	155	279	16	7	321	104	+3	+1	-3	-11	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	172	154	36	7	0	4	17	27	0	0	1	234	308	357	665	123	260	16	10	301	89	-2	-0	—	—	+5	0.2
2021	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	282	260	75	10	0	14	19	59	0	2	0	288	337	488	825	200	321	21	7	360	133	+11	+0	—	—	+8	1.9
2021	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	—	49	42	12	1	0	4	6	15	0	1	0	286	375	595	970	310	333	31	12	411	172	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2022	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	53	48	9	1	0	1	5	9	0	1	0	188	264	271	535	83	211	17	9	249	49	-3	+0	-1	-6	+2	-0.8
2022	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	470	432	143	25	1	20	29	67	3	4	0	331	377	532	910	201	350	14	6	395	160	+32	+1	—	—	+13	4.7
2023	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	347	315	77	20	1	8	23	45	3	3	1	244	299	390	690	146	261	13	7	304	91	-3	+0	-8	-4	+10	-0.5
2024	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	595	547	147	20	0	21	35	76	4	9	4	269	316	420	737	152	276	13	6	324	106	+4	+0	-7	-6	+17	0.7
2025	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	546	497	144	26	2	18	39	79	3	5	1	290	344	459	803	169	312	14	7	352	128	+17	+1	-7	-10	+15	1.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1541	1407	377	67	3	48	102	209	10	18	6	268	320	422	743	154	283	14	7	327	108	+14	+1	-24	-25	+44	1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kendrys Moraleslast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,357 PA	13	5,357	213	6	265	327	453	-95	-16	14.9	15.2
	/162	664	26	1	265	327	453	-11.8	-2.0	1.8	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	13	6,665	220	52	262	319	422	-119	-82	12.7	12.2
	/162	664	22	5	262	319	422	-11.9	-8.1	1.3	pk7: 12
#2Adam LaRochelast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,329 PA	12	6,329	255	13	260	336	462	-113	-125	10.7	12.1
	/162	664	27	1	260	336	462	-11.9	-13.1	1.1	pk7: 13
#3Adam Lindlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,029 PA	12	5,029	200	7	272	330	465	-76	-76	11.6	11.8
#3Adam Lindlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,029 PA	/162	664	26	1	272	330	465	-10.0	-10.1	1.5	pk7: 12
#4Lyle Overbaylast yr '14 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,790 PA	12	5,790	151	19	266	348	429	-103	-102	8.8	10.3
	/162	664	17	2	266	348	429	-11.9	-11.7	1.0	pk7: 12
#5C.J. Cronlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,043 PA	10	4,043	187	10	260	320	471	-72	-46	8.9	8.9
#5C.J. Cronlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,043 PA	/162	664	31	2	260	320	471	-11.9	-7.6	1.5	pk7: 9
#6Mitch Morelandlast yr '21 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,536 PA	12	4,536	186	11	251	318	446	-81	-56	5.9	6.1
	/162	664	27	2	251	318	446	-11.9	-8.1	0.9	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alec Burleson (OGILVIE)	27	60	50	35	40	272/336/456	185	289	24	5	15%	8%	121	+2.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Daryle Ward 2003 · MLB	28	52→56	52→60	37→30	49	267/318/440	174	298	20	3	18%	7%	115	+2.7	249/303/403	154	273	17	3	16%	7%	98	+1.6	259/324/444	185	273	22	0	14%	8%	108	+1.2
✕Steve Cox 2002 · MLB	27	52→51	51→50	40	53	264/341/434	169	295	19	4	17%	9%	122	+3.3	253/328/405	152	292	16	6	19%	9%	109	+2.4	251/330/392	141	290	15	5	18%	9%	101	+1.9
●Ryan Garko 2008 · MLB	27	52→57	53→55	37→30	47	265/336/438	173	297	21	3	18%	6%	121	+3.2	254/327/399	145	281	18	2	16%	7%	108	+2.3	237/313/365	128	262	16	0	16%	8%	89	+0.8
●Jay Gibbons 2004 · MLB	27	50→54	57→60	36→30	52	263/321/462	199	267	24	2	13%	8%	121	+3.2	265/319/453	188	276	22	2	14%	7%	118	+3.0	266/320/456	190	275	23	0	13%	7%	115	+2.0
●Robert Fick 2002 · MLB	28	51→54	54→55	39→40	55	263/336/447	183	282	22	4	16%	9%	123	+3.3	259/326/419	160	279	17	2	14%	8%	112	+2.6	253/322/402	149	272	15	0	13%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Luis Montanez 2009 · MLB	27	54→58	53→55	41→45	45	276/317/449	173	305	21	5	17%	5%	116	+2.8	255/297/393	138	292	14	7	17%	5%	93	+1.3	245/292/351	106	288	7	7	17%	5%	76	+0.0
●Mitch Moreland 2013 · MLB	27	49→59	53→60	42→40	49	253/313/423	169	284	21	4	20%	8%	108	+2.3	245/306/422	177	285	22	3	22%	8%	105	+2.1	242/312/430	188	276	24	1	22%	8%	104	+1.8
✕Mike Carp 2013 · MLB	27	47→56	53→55	40	46	242/303/410	168	290	21	5	24%	7%	101	+1.8	234/307/380	146	301	15	6	26%	8%	94	+1.3	236/320/391	154	308	14	1	26%	9%	101	+0.6
✕Chris Carter 2011 · MLB	28	51→57	50→55	41→40	47	261/304/414	153	278	18	3	14%	5%	102	+1.8	253/295/410	157	273	19	6	15%	5%	97	+1.5	267/298/404	137	281	17	1	12%	4%	94	+0.5
✕Delmon Young 2013 · MLB	27	55→61	51→55	39→55	43	276/311/433	157	308	19	2	17%	4%	109	+2.4	265/304/403	138	311	16	3	20%	4%	98	+1.6	265/302/387	122	315	15	1	20%	4%	92	+0.5
✕Colin Moran 2020 · MLB	27	55→57	49→55	35→30	47	272/325/423	151	324	17	2	21%	7%	112	+2.6	250/316/408	158	312	19	3	25%	8%	105	+2.1	230/303/380	150	291	19	1	27%	9%	91	+0.6
●Raul Lopez 2006 · AAA	27	56→62	50	42→40	50	280/329/439	159	299	16	5	13%	7%	118	+3.0	276/332/416	140	306	15	4	15%	8%	113	+2.6	276/335/428	151	300	18	3	14%	8%	118	+1.6
✕Donovan Walton 2022 · MLB	28	54→59	52→55	40→45	49	273/335/444	171	296	20	6	16%	7%	122	+3.3	237/297/372	135	271	13	8	17%	7%	88	+0.9	254/316/372	119	283	14	5	16%	7%	94	+0.9
✕Willie Calhoun 2022 · MLB	27	48→52	50→55	40	52	243/305/397	154	258	18	3	15%	8%	97	+1.5	229/297/365	136	251	15	3	16%	8%	85	+0.7	222/296/351	128	244	15	1	16%	9%	78	+0.1
●Andrew Benintendi 2022 · MLB	28	53→63	51→55	42→50	50	265/328/429	165	308	17	10	20%	8%	115	+2.8	269/333/390	121	311	11	10	16%	9%	107	+2.2	260/327/373	113	298	10	9	16%	9%	96	+1.4
✕Gonzalo Meza 2006 · AAA	27	54→56	51→50	45→40	46	276/319/432	156	302	19	7	16%	6%	112	+2.6	274/324/402	128	308	14	5	16%	7%	106	+2.2	280/331/391	111	316	12	3	15%	7%	105	+1.3
●Dan Johnson 2007 · MLB	27	50→53	50→60	38→30	59	254/338/415	161	270	18	2	14%	11%	115	+2.8	251/344/434	183	272	23	2	17%	12%	124	+3.4	236/340/435	199	252	27	0	18%	13%	120	+2.7
★Dmitri Young 2001 · MLB	27	57→65	52→60	39→45	49	289/336/470	181	311	18	3	14%	6%	129	+3.7	293/346/483	190	322	22	6	16%	7%	137	+4.3	280/346/497	217	313	26	1	19%	8%	130	+3.3
●C.J. Cron 2017 · MLB	27	51→53	54→60	43→40	44	262/306/446	185	293	22	5	20%	5%	111	+2.5	253/313/461	208	291	27	4	23%	6%	118	+3.0	246/324/466	219	279	29	1	23%	8%	120	+2.8
✕Josh Pressley 2006 · AA	26	54→56	54→55	39→40	49	277/336/454	177	309	23	3	19%	7%	125	+3.5	241/310/368	127	292	14	6	21%	9%	92	+1.2	204/293/274	70	258	5	2	21%	11%	58	-0.4