Alec Burleson

1B St. Louis Cardinals
Age 28 L/L 6'0" / 225 lbs MLB HR -14%BB -5% Svc 4.169 · Ctrl thru 2028
Overview
MLB40-MANArb-2FA 2029
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202425MLBSTL595.269/.316/.4202191080.5
202526MLBSTL546.290/.344/.4591851261.3
202627MLBSTL670.279/.345/.4732641302.5
2027PROJ28MLBSTL614.270/.329/.4472251191.7
2028PROJ29MLBSTL614.267/.325/.4402231161.3
2029PROJ30MLBSTL606.263/.321/.4312111130.9
Last 3 seasons WAR 4.3  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 4.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2028Service4.169First FA2029
2027Arb-2$5M2028Arb-3$6M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
xwOBA88
Avg EV77
Barrel%57
Bat Spd55
Speed12
Form.252/.316/.445 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .270/.327/.454
CompsRobert Fick (age 28) · Daryle Ward (age 28) · Jay Gibbons (age 28)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 96119vR 127
AVG/OBP/SLG.270 / .329 / .447
PA614
HR22
SB5
K%16
BB%7
BABIP291
ISO175
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +13.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+14BATRUN: -1.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-1RUNFLD: +0.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -11.0 runs (Positional adjustment)-11POSREP: +13.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+13REPTotal WAR: +1.50+1.5WAR
0.01.02.01.51.327282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 50
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT60
xAVG
830.278
POWER50
Barrel%
579.2
Avg EV
7790.9
Bat Spd
5571.9
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED35
Sprint
1225.6
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%22%▼▼26% over 101 PA (60d) · proj 16%
BB%8%▲9% over 101 PA (60d) · proj 7%
ISO.193·.209 over 91 AB (60d) · proj .184
HR/BB6.1%▲7.6% over 66 BBE (60d) · proj 5.1%
BABIP.286·.246 over 61 BIP (60d) · proj .289
SLASH.252/.316/.445▼proj .270/.327/.454
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1253 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
302
951
—
wRC+
64
128
▶▶R
wOBA
262
358
▶▶R
ISO
106
177
▶▶R
BABIP
243
308
▶▶R
K%
13.9%
13.5%
▶R
BB%
4.6%
7.5%
▶▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-2
MLB Debut   2022
Service   4.169 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2028
First FA Year   2029
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-2$5M+1.5$12M+$7M
2028Arb-3$6M+1.3$10M+$4M
Totals $11M $22M +$11M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202122 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 172154 36704 17270 01 234308357665 123260 1610 301 57 — — — — — —
202122 AASpringfield Cardinals — 282260 7510014 19590 20 288337488825 200321 217 360 93 — — — — — —
202122 A+Peoria Chiefs — 4942 12104 6150 10 286375595970 310333 3112 411 94 — — — — — —
202223 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 5348 9101 590 10 188264271535 83211 179 249 57 -3 +0 -1 -6 +1 -0.8
202223 AAAMemphis Redbirds — 470432 14325120 29673 40 331377532910 201350 146 395 108 — — — — — —
202324 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 347315 772018 23453 31 244299390690 146261 137 304 93 -3 +0 -8 -4 +8 -0.7
202425 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 595547 14720021 35764 94 269316420737 152276 136 324 108 +6 +0 -7 -6 +13 0.5
202526 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 546497 14426218 39793 51 290344459803 169312 147 352 126 +17 +1 -7 -10 +12 1.3
202627 MLBSt. Louis Cardinals — 670605 16937126 551216 40 279345473818 193310 188 360 130 +24 +1 -2 -12 +15 2.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 22112012 546104474 15733016 226 271328437765 166291 157 337 114 +37 +2 -26 -37 +48 2.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202122 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 172160 34603 12340 01 212267306574 94248 207 252 57 — — — — — —
202122 AA MLESpringfield Cardinals — 282266 698011 13740 20 259294414707 154311 265 306 93 — — — — — —
202122 A+ MLEPeoria Chiefs — 4944 10103 4200 10 227292455746 227293 418 307 94 — — — — — —
202223 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 5348 9101 590 10 188264271535 83211 179 252 57 -3 +0 -1 -6 +1 -0.8
202223 AAA MLEMemphis Redbirds — 470441 12822114 20823 40 290325440765 150318 174 328 108 — — — — — —
202324 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 347318 771919 23453 31 242299393693 151261 137 306 93 -3 +0 -8 -4 +8 -0.7
202425 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 595549 14819023 35764 94 270318430748 160276 136 329 108 +6 +0 -7 -6 +13 0.5
202526 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 546500 14425219 38793 51 288342460802 172312 147 354 126 +17 +1 -7 -10 +12 1.3
202627 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 670609 16935128 511216 40 278339476816 199310 188 360 130 +24 +1 -2 -12 +15 2.5
202122 AA MLE3 teams — 503470 11215017 291280 31 238283379661 140289 256 288 81 — — — — — —
202122 AA RAW3 teams — 503456 12318022 421010 31 270331454785 184300 208 345 81 — — — — — —
202223 AAA MLE2 teams — 523489 13723115 25913 50 280319423742 143314 175 320 103 — — — — — —
202223 AAA RAW2 teams — 523480 15226121 34763 50 317366506872 190337 157 380 103 — — — — — —
202324 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 347318 771919 23453 31 242299393693 151256 137 306 93 -3 +0 -8 -4 +8 -0.7
202324 MLB RAWSt. Louis Cardinals — 347315 772018 23453 31 244299390690 146261 137 304 93 -3 +0 -8 -4 +8 -0.7
202425 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 595549 14819023 35764 94 270318430748 160274 136 329 108 +6 +0 -7 -6 +13 0.5
202425 MLB RAWSt. Louis Cardinals — 595547 14720021 35764 94 269316420737 152276 136 324 108 +6 +0 -7 -6 +13 0.5
202526 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 546500 14425219 38793 51 288342460802 172308 147 354 126 +17 +1 -7 -10 +12 1.3
202526 MLB RAWSt. Louis Cardinals — 546497 14426218 39793 51 290344459803 169312 147 352 126 +17 +1 -7 -10 +12 1.3
202627 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 670609 16935128 511216 40 278339476816 199304 188 360 130 +24 +1 -2 -12 +15 2.5
202627 MLB RAWSt. Louis Cardinals — 670605 16937126 551216 40 279345473818 193310 188 360 130 +24 +1 -2 -12 +15 2.5
202122 AA MLE3 teams — 503469 11215017 291280 31 239283380662 141288 256 288 81 — — — — — —
202223 AAA MLE2 teams — 523490 13723115 25913 50 280319422742 143307 175 320 103 — — — — — —
202324 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 347318 771919 23453 31 242299393693 151261 137 306 93 — — — — — —
202425 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 595551 14819023 35764 94 269318428746 160276 136 329 108 — — — — — —
202526 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 546500 14425219 38793 51 288342460802 172312 147 354 126 — — — — — —
202627 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 670608 16935128 511216 40 278339477816 199310 188 360 130 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202425 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 595551 14819023 35764 94 269318428746 160276 136 329 108 — — — — — —
202526 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 546500 14425219 38793 51 288342460802 172312 147 354 126 — — — — — —
202627 MLB MLESt. Louis Cardinals — 670608 16935128 511216 40 278339477816 199310 188 360 130 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202728 MLB MLESTL 100% 593540 14628123 43975 52 270329454783 184289 167 344 119 +13 +0 +0 -11 +13 1.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202728 MLB CTXSTL 100% 614560 15030122 441005 52 270329447776 177291 167 341 119 +14 +0 +0 -11 +13 1.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202829 MLB MLESTL 100% 614560 15029123 441025 32 267326447773 180288 177 340 116 +12 -0 -1 -11 +13 1.3
202930 MLB MLESTL 100% 606554 14628122 431034 11 263322438760 174285 177 335 113 +9 -0 -2 -11 +13 0.9
203031 MLB MLESTL 100% 585535 13926121 411014 11 258316426742 168281 177 327 108 +5 -0 -3 -10 +13 0.5
203132 MLB MLESTL 100% 564517 12924019 391003 10 251308410718 159275 187 318 101 +1 +0 -3 -10 +12 -0.0
202829 MLB CTXSTL 100% 614560 15030122 441025 32 267325440765 173289 177 337 116 +12 -0 -1 -11 +13 1.3
202930 MLB CTXSTL 100% 606554 14629121 431034 11 263321431752 168287 177 332 113 +9 -0 -2 -11 +13 0.9
203031 MLB CTXSTL 100% 585535 13827119 411014 11 258315419735 162283 177 325 108 +5 -0 -3 -10 +13 0.5
203132 MLB CTXSTL 100% 564517 12925018 391003 10 251307404711 153277 187 315 101 +1 +0 -3 -10 +12 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 45804178 11092157154 32473632 2810 265323431753 165288 167 332 110 +64 +2 -35 -80 +99 5.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650593 15831122 461045 41 266325433758 167289 167 332 110 +9 +0 -5 -11 +14 0.7
Career— MLE — 61675661 15022729220 412104640 4013 265320433753 168289 177 331 110 +78 +2 -35 -91 +113 6.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650597 15929123 431104 41 266319434753 168291 177 331 110 +10 +0 -4 -11 +14 0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 470 PAwOBA .389 → .328 (−60)K% 14.3% → 17.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.26%÷0.976×1.200——17.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.17%÷1.053×0.690—×1.0484.24%
HBP% /PA0.64%—×0.940—×1.0480.63%
Singles /BIP26.58%÷1.051×0.930×1.013×1.04824.97%
Doubles /BIP6.85%÷1.019×0.830×1.013×1.0485.92%
Triples /BIP0.27%÷1.150×0.970×1.013×1.0480.25%
Home runs /BIP5.48%÷1.048×0.700—×1.0483.84%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 110, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .389 → .328; ISO .201 → .151; BABIP .350 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASpringfield Cardinals · 282 PAwOBA .353 → .306 (−47)K% 20.9% → 26.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.92%÷0.975×1.220——26.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.74%÷1.020×0.690—×1.0274.68%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP25.37%÷1.003×0.940×1.050×1.02725.65%
Doubles /BIP4.98%÷1.107×0.870×1.050×1.0274.21%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.973×0.920×1.050×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP6.97%÷0.990×0.780—×1.0275.64%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 101, 2B 121, 3B 95, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .353 → .306; ISO .200 → .158; BABIP .321 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 172 PAwOBA .293 → .252 (−41)K% 15.7% → 19.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.70%÷0.955×1.200——19.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.88%÷1.056×0.690—×1.0506.78%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0500.00%
Singles /BIP19.69%÷1.016×0.930×1.026×1.05019.41%
Doubles /BIP5.51%÷1.029×0.830×1.026×1.0504.79%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.920×1.026×1.0500.00%
Home runs /BIP3.15%÷0.949×0.700—×1.0502.44%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 91, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .293 → .252; ISO .123 → .099; BABIP .260 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Peoria Chiefs · 49 PAwOBA .408 → .307 (−100)K% 30.6% → 41.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.61%÷1.000×1.350——41.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.24%÷0.984×0.710—×0.9988.81%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.810—×0.9980.00%
Singles /BIP25.93%÷0.988×0.910—×0.99823.83%
Doubles /BIP3.70%÷0.945×0.830—×0.9983.25%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.820—×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP14.81%÷1.063×0.830—×0.99811.55%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .408 → .307; ISO .310 → .220; BABIP .333 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).