Levi Sterling — OGILVIE

Levi Sterling P Bradenton Marauders

Age 19 RHP 6'5" / 202 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.1 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.56

FIP5.56

K%18.2%

BB%15.7%

K-BB%2.4%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$26M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF—50

CTRL—50

CMD—50

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Arb-1	$4M	+1.1	$5M	+$3M
2034	Arb-2	$6M	+1.0	$4M	+$2M
2035	Arb-3	$8M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$13M		$21M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	34	162	34	23	2	75%	2.8	13.6%	17.5%	-3.9%	1.9%	6.09	5.19	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	34	162	34	23	2	75%	2.8	13.6%	17.5%	-3.9%	1.9%	6.09	5.19	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	9	34	162	34	23	2	75%	2.8	21.0%	14.2%	6.8%	1.2%	6.09	3.89	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	24	24	109	450	130	45	17	100%	4.5	21.5%	11.8%	9.7%	4.9%	4.56	5.45	—
YTD	19	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	24	24	109	450	130	45	17	100%	4.5	21.5%	11.8%	9.7%	4.9%	4.56	5.45	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	A RAW	PIT	21	21	96	395	112	39	14	100%	4.6	28.4%	9.9%	18.5%	3.5%	4.31	3.90	—
2026	19	A+ RAW	PIT	3	3	13	55	18	6	3	100%	4.2	32.7%	10.9%	21.8%	5.5%	6.39	4.71	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	112	472	92	64	14	100%	4.7	19.4%	13.6%	5.8%	2.9%	5.26	5.15	-0.3
2028	21	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	117	495	100	60	14	100%	4.9	20.3%	12.1%	8.2%	2.8%	5.00	4.86	+0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	123	520	111	57	15	100%	5.1	21.4%	10.9%	10.5%	2.8%	4.74	4.59	+0.4
2030	23	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	128	540	119	54	15	100%	5.3	22.1%	10.1%	12.0%	2.8%	4.53	4.40	+0.7
2031	24	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	131	553	125	53	15	100%	5.7	22.7%	9.6%	13.1%	2.7%	4.38	4.27	+1.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	133	560	129	52	15	100%	5.8	23.0%	9.2%	13.8%	2.7%	4.27	4.19	+1.1
2033	26	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	133	560	130	52	15	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.2%	14.0%	2.7%	4.21	4.17	+1.1
2034	27	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	131	551	128	51	15	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.3%	13.9%	2.8%	4.21	4.21	+1.1
2035	28	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	127	535	124	50	15	100%	6.0	23.1%	9.4%	13.7%	2.9%	4.26	4.29	+0.9
2036	29	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	121	511	117	49	15	100%	6.0	22.9%	9.7%	13.2%	3.0%	4.36	4.43	+0.7
2037	30	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	114	480	108	48	15	100%	6.0	22.5%	10.0%	12.5%	3.2%	4.51	4.60	+0.4
2038	31	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	106	448	99	46	15	100%	5.9	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	3.4%	4.69	4.80	+0.1
2039	32	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	98	414	90	44	15	100%	6.1	21.6%	10.7%	10.9%	3.7%	4.89	5.03	-0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	55	232	45	32	6	100%	4.6	19.4%	13.6%	5.8%	2.7%	5.14	5.03	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	85	359	73	43	9	100%	4.7	20.3%	12.1%	8.2%	2.6%	4.88	4.74	+0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	104	439	94	48	11	100%	5.2	21.4%	10.9%	10.5%	2.6%	4.62	4.47	+0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	115	486	107	49	12	100%	5.5	22.1%	10.1%	12.0%	2.5%	4.42	4.29	+0.7
2031	24	MLB CTX	PIT	22	22	121	511	116	49	13	100%	5.5	22.7%	9.6%	13.1%	2.5%	4.27	4.16	+0.9
2032	25	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	124	524	121	48	13	100%	5.9	23.0%	9.2%	13.8%	2.5%	4.16	4.08	+1.0
2033	26	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	126	532	124	49	13	100%	6.0	23.2%	9.2%	14.0%	2.5%	4.10	4.06	+1.1
2034	27	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	124	524	122	49	13	100%	5.9	23.2%	9.3%	13.9%	2.6%	4.10	4.10	+1.0
2035	28	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	120	507	117	48	13	100%	6.0	23.1%	9.4%	13.7%	2.6%	4.14	4.17	+0.9
2036	29	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	115	486	111	47	14	100%	6.1	22.9%	9.7%	13.2%	2.8%	4.24	4.31	+0.6
2037	30	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	108	456	103	45	14	100%	6.0	22.5%	10.0%	12.5%	3.0%	4.38	4.47	+0.4
2038	31	MLB CTX	PIT	17	17	101	426	94	44	14	100%	5.9	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	3.2%	4.55	4.66	+0.1
2039	32	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	93	393	85	42	13	100%	5.8	21.6%	10.7%	10.9%	3.4%	4.74	4.88	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		245	245	1391	5873	1310	593	159	100%	5.7	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	2.7%	4.39	3.98	+15.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	188	85	23	100%	5.7	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	2.7%	4.39	3.98	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		36	33	143	612	119	81	25	92%	4.0	19.4%	13.3%	6.1%	4.1%	4.92	5.38	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	46	200	858	167	114	35	92%	4.0	19.4%	13.3%	6.1%	4.1%	4.92	5.38	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Levi Sterling (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.56	18.2%	15.7%	3.0%	—	4.86	20.4%	8.2%	352	-0.70	—	—	—
Jeferson Figueroa R 2021 · 5.24 FIP	20	SP	5.24	17.1%	15.6%	2.9%	.232	5.02	20.6%	5.4%	188	-0.22	4.77	249	88
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	84
Wellington Aracena R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	18	SP	5.11	17.2%	15.8%	2.7%	.273	4.20	19.8%	3.0%	236	-0.91	3.20	304	83
Luke Albright R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	21	SP	5.77	16.8%	13.4%	4.4%	.295	5.10	19.4%	5.5%	269	-0.67	4.02	329	83
Rafael Garcia R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	18	SP	4.65	14.9%	14.0%	1.9%	.288	7.13	16.0%	-0.4%	50	+2.48	4.65	102	83
Ben Hernandez R 2021 · 4.36 FIP	20	SP	4.36	16.5%	14.4%	1.5%	.337	4.59	12.4%	-0.3%	186	+0.23	4.00	301	83
Juan Carela R 2021 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP	4.42	17.0%	13.5%	1.9%	.333	4.32	20.8%	9.3%	329	-0.10	4.23	455	82
Shane Panzini R 2022 · 5.64 FIP	20	SP	5.64	17.3%	15.8%	3.6%	.335	4.96	18.5%	5.6%	251	-0.68	4.59	338	82
Jonas De La Cruz R 2017 · 4.90 FIP	19	SP	4.90	15.2%	15.3%	2.1%	.326	5.27	18.5%	4.3%	47	+0.37	4.73	130	82
Lisandro Almonte R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	19	SP-	4.89	16.3%	16.4%	2.0%	.298	4.93	19.6%	4.9%	78	+0.04	3.81	128	80
Juan De La Cruz R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	18	SP	5.20	14.6%	17.7%	2.0%	.331	5.01	19.1%	-0.6%	136	-0.19	3.37	220	80
Keiber Arredondo R 2017 · 5.86 FIP	19	SP	5.86	13.0%	13.4%	3.9%	.292	4.00	16.0%	2.7%	93	-1.86	3.61	141	80
Anderson Munoz R 2018 · 5.90 FIP	19	SP-	5.90	14.4%	18.2%	3.1%	.306	4.35	25.7%	13.3%	73	-1.55	4.15	109	80
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	80
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	80
Dennis Santana R 2015 · 5.67 FIP	19	SP	5.67	15.3%	20.0%	2.4%	.319	3.48	20.3%	8.8%	268	-2.19	2.82	776	80
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	80
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	79
Evan Johnson R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	22	SP	4.42	15.3%	14.2%	1.5%	.287	4.56	25.7%	8.6%	65	+0.14	4.42	103	79
Tanner McDougal R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	20	SP	4.96	19.7%	16.9%	2.5%	.285	4.86	21.2%	7.8%	249	-0.10	3.82	319	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.0	114	22.1%	10.3%	1.13	4.55
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32