Levi Sterling

P Bradenton Marauders

Age 20 RHP 6'5" / 202 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.2 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#277ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	MIX2 levels	12	9	34	6.09	3.89	21.0%	14.2%	—	K 13.6% · BB 17.5% · FIP 5.19
2026	19	MIX2 levels	24	24	109	4.56	3.98	28.9%	10.0%	—	K 21.5% · BB 11.8% · FIP 5.45
2027PROJ	20	MLBPIT	—	—	0	5.05	5.05	21.3%	11.9%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBPIT	13	13	63	4.72	4.65	21.8%	10.5%	0.4
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBPIT	18	18	94	4.51	4.39	22.7%	9.4%	1.0

Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 80%

CompsJosh Bostick (age 22) · Trevor Martin (age 22) · Patrick Reilly (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%21.3%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%9.4%

Proj IP129

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$73M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$7M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$7M	+$5M
2035	Arb-2	$5M	+1.3	$6M	+$4M
2036	Arb-3	$5M	+1.1	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$16M		$41M	+$34M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	34	162	34	23	2	75%	2.8	13.6%	17.5%	-3.9%	1.9%	6.09	5.19	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	34	162	34	23	2	75%	2.8	13.6%	17.5%	-3.9%	1.9%	6.09	5.19	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	9	34	162	34	23	2	75%	2.8	21.0%	14.2%	6.8%	1.2%	6.09	3.89	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	109	450	130	45	17	100%	4.5	21.5%	11.8%	9.7%	4.9%	4.56	5.45	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	109	450	130	45	17	100%	4.5	21.5%	11.8%	9.7%	4.9%	4.56	5.45	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	109	450	130	45	17	100%	4.5	28.9%	10.0%	18.9%	3.8%	4.56	3.98	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.3%	11.9%	9.4%	3.4%	5.05	5.05	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	PIT	27	27	129	543	118	57	18	100%	4.8	21.8%	10.5%	11.2%	3.3%	4.86	4.79	+0.9
2029	22	MLB MLE	PIT	25	25	129	543	123	51	17	100%	5.1	22.7%	9.4%	13.3%	3.2%	4.64	4.52	+1.3
2030	23	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	129	543	127	47	17	100%	5.4	23.4%	8.7%	14.7%	3.2%	4.46	4.34	+1.6
2031	24	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	129	543	130	45	17	100%	5.6	23.9%	8.2%	15.6%	3.1%	4.32	4.22	+1.8
2032	25	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	106	450	109	36	14	100%	5.9	24.3%	8.0%	16.3%	3.1%	4.22	4.15	+1.6
2033	26	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	107	452	111	36	14	100%	5.9	24.5%	8.0%	16.5%	3.1%	4.17	4.13	+1.6
2034	27	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	105	442	108	36	14	100%	6.2	24.5%	8.0%	16.4%	3.2%	4.17	4.17	+1.5
2035	28	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	100	422	103	35	14	100%	5.9	24.3%	8.2%	16.2%	3.3%	4.22	4.25	+1.4
2036	29	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	93	393	95	33	13	100%	5.8	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	3.4%	4.32	4.38	+1.1
2037	30	MLB MLE	PIT	14	14	84	356	85	31	13	100%	6.0	23.8%	8.7%	15.0%	3.6%	4.47	4.56	+0.8
2038	31	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	76	319	74	29	12	100%	5.8	23.4%	9.1%	14.3%	3.8%	4.65	4.76	+0.6
2039	32	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	67	282	65	27	12	100%	6.1	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	4.1%	4.85	4.99	+0.3
2040	33	MLB MLE	PIT	10	10	59	249	56	25	11	100%	5.9	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	4.4%	5.08	5.24	+0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	63	266	58	28	8	100%	4.8	21.8%	10.5%	11.2%	3.1%	4.72	4.65	+0.4
2029	22	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	94	397	90	37	12	100%	5.2	22.7%	9.4%	13.3%	3.0%	4.51	4.39	+1.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	109	460	108	40	13	100%	5.5	23.4%	8.7%	14.7%	2.9%	4.33	4.21	+1.4
2031	24	MLB CTX	PIT	21	21	115	486	116	40	14	100%	5.5	23.9%	8.2%	15.6%	2.9%	4.19	4.09	+1.6
2032	25	MLB CTX	PIT	17	17	98	414	100	33	12	100%	5.8	24.3%	8.0%	16.3%	2.9%	4.09	4.02	+1.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	PIT	17	17	100	422	103	34	12	100%	5.9	24.5%	8.0%	16.5%	2.9%	4.04	4.00	+1.5
2034	27	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	99	418	102	34	12	100%	6.2	24.5%	8.0%	16.4%	2.9%	4.04	4.04	+1.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	PIT	16	16	95	401	98	33	12	100%	5.9	24.3%	8.2%	16.2%	3.0%	4.09	4.12	+1.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	88	372	90	31	12	100%	5.9	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	3.2%	4.18	4.24	+1.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	80	338	80	29	11	100%	6.2	23.8%	8.7%	15.0%	3.3%	4.32	4.41	+0.8
2038	31	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	72	304	71	28	11	100%	6.0	23.4%	9.1%	14.3%	3.6%	4.49	4.60	+0.5
2039	32	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	64	270	62	26	10	100%	5.8	22.9%	9.5%	13.4%	3.8%	4.68	4.82	+0.3
2040	33	MLB CTX	PIT	9	9	56	236	53	23	10	100%	6.2	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	4.0%	4.90	5.06	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		198	198	1132	4779	1130	415	149	100%	5.7	23.6%	8.7%	14.9%	3.1%	4.31	3.92	+20.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	200	73	26	100%	5.7	23.6%	8.7%	14.9%	3.1%	4.31	3.92	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		36	33	143	612	119	81	25	92%	4.0	19.4%	13.3%	6.1%	4.1%	4.92	5.38	+14.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	46	200	858	167	114	35	92%	4.0	19.4%	13.3%	6.1%	4.1%	4.92	5.38	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ABradenton Marauders · 96 IPFIP 3.90 → 5.33 (+1.43)K% 28.4% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.35%	—	×0.740	20.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.87%	—	×1.180	11.65%
HR / BF /BF	3.54%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.61%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.90 → 5.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 13 IPFIP 4.71 → 6.30 (+1.59)K% 32.7% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.73%	—	×0.770	25.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.91%	—	×1.150	12.55%
HR / BF /BF	5.45%	÷1.000	×1.250	6.82%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.71 → 6.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Pirates · 32 IPFIP 3.92 → 5.19 (+1.28)K% 20.0% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.680	13.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.00%	—	×1.250	17.50%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.87%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.92 → 5.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Levi Sterling (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.55	22.6%	13.1%	386	-0.50	—	—	—
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	87
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	86
Patrick Reilly R 2024 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	23.2%	13.6%	3.8%	.242	5.00	27.8%	20.2%	40	+0.04	4.96	159	85
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.94	16.9%	5.6%	391	+0.13	4.04	498	84
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	84
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	84
Josh Grosz R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	5.07	21.5%	8.5%	183	+0.24	4.75	301	84
Victor Lizarraga R 2024 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP	4.18	20.3%	11.4%	2.5%	.278	5.61	15.1%	0.9%	179	+1.43	3.82	494	83
Barrett Kent R 2024 · 5.40 FIP	19	SP	5.40	18.0%	14.0%	3.7%	.313	4.52	13.6%	-2.1%	27	-0.88	4.52	140	83
Dinelson Lamet R 2015 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	20.1%	11.8%	2.7%	.272	3.69	24.2%	13.1%	293	-0.67	2.11	778	82
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	82
Mason Hickman R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP	4.69	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.36	23.9%	11.1%	181	+0.67	4.69	300	81
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	81
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	81
Blade Tidwell R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP	4.84	24.5%	14.7%	3.5%	.284	4.37	20.4%	10.5%	363	-0.47	3.89	479	81
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	80
Mason Black R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	22.3%	9.0%	2.9%	.297	4.62	21.2%	11.3%	364	+0.67	3.95	569	80
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	80
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	80
Ty Madden R 2022 · 4.90 FIP	22	SP	4.90	20.8%	8.6%	4.5%	.258	4.78	23.3%	13.4%	238	-0.12	4.39	458	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.2	103	23.3%	9.1%	1.30	4.52
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Diego Segui ('62-'77, 10 WAR*)	9.0	121	22.2%*	9.9%*	1.19*	4.40*
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Pete Richert ('62-'74, 13 WAR*)	5.8	90	24.4%*	8.8%*	1.26*	4.04*
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Derek Holland ('21)	7.3	113	19.7%	8.4%	1.35	4.62