Bubba Chandler — OGILVIE

Bubba Chandler P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 206 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 3.2 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION142 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10697vR 89

ERA4.01

FIP3.87

K%22.6%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 155 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$49M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6060

CTRL5055

CMD4550

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.4

Whiff%

p3022.5%

p4221.0%

xwOBA vs

p530.309

CH+1.4 (14%)

FB (57%)

SI (8%)

CU (4%)

SL (25%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.221 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.5M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$15M	+$14M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.4	$16M	+$16M
2029	Arb-1	$8M	+2.5	$16M	+$10M
2030	Arb-2	$14M	+2.4	$14M	+$5M
2031	Arb-3	$20M	+2.2	$12M	+$0.2M
Totals		$44M		$74M	+$45M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	41	173	60	28	3	79%	3.0	24.7%	19.5%	5.2%	2.0%	2.61	4.60	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	11	41	173	60	28	3	79%	3.0	34.7%	16.2%	18.5%	1.7%	2.61	3.17	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	111	484	128	51	15	100%	4.4	19.7%	12.5%	7.2%	3.3%	4.54	4.85	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	111	484	128	51	15	100%	4.4	19.7%	12.5%	7.2%	3.3%	4.54	4.85	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	111	484	128	51	15	100%	4.4	26.4%	10.5%	15.9%	3.1%	4.54	3.93	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	120	479	148	41	9	88%	4.6	25.3%	8.8%	16.5%	2.6%	3.08	3.50	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	120	479	148	41	9	88%	4.6	25.3%	8.8%	16.5%	2.6%	3.08	3.50	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	120	479	148	41	9	88%	4.6	30.9%	8.6%	22.3%	1.9%	3.08	2.63	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	28	131	566	152	57	10	90%	4.2	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	2.1%	4.04	3.44	+2.3
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	28	131	566	152	57	10	90%	4.2	23.2%	9.1%	14.1%	2.1%	4.04	3.44	+2.3
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	28	131	566	152	57	10	90%	4.2	26.9%	10.1%	16.8%	1.8%	4.04	3.08	+2.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			35	31	173	737	160	74	15	89%	5.0	21.7%	10.0%	11.7%	2.0%	4.21	3.66	+2.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	28	27	142	613	129	70	13	96%	5.1	21.0%	11.4%	9.6%	2.3%	4.25	4.03	+1.5
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	28	27	142	613	129	70	13	96%	5.1	21.0%	11.4%	9.6%	2.3%	4.25	4.03	+1.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	MLB RAW	PIT	28	27	142	613	129	70	13	96%	5.1	21.0%	11.4%	9.6%	2.1%	4.25	3.93	+1.6
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	PIT	28	27	142	613	129	70	13	96%	5.1	21.0%	11.4%	9.6%	2.1%	4.25	3.93	+1.6
ROS	23	MLB MLE	PIT	2	2	13	55	12	6	1	100%	6.5	22.6%	10.4%	12.2%	2.5%	4.01	3.87	+0.2
ROS	23	MLB CTX	PIT	2	2	13	55	12	6	1	100%	6.5	22.6%	10.4%	12.2%	2.3%	3.91	3.77	+0.2
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	155	668	141	76	14	—	—	21.2%	11.3%	9.8%	2.1%	4.23	4.01	+1.6
FULL	23	MLB A+C	PIT	—	—	155	655	141	76	14	—	—	21.6%	11.6%	10.0%	2.2%	4.22	3.94	+1.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PIT	30	30	169	712	176	70	16	100%	5.6	24.7%	9.8%	14.9%	2.3%	4.03	3.88	+2.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	PIT	31	31	180	762	195	71	17	100%	5.8	25.6%	9.4%	16.2%	2.3%	3.86	3.74	+2.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	PIT	30	30	180	760	198	71	17	100%	6.0	26.1%	9.3%	16.7%	2.3%	3.76	3.70	+2.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	PIT	30	30	180	760	198	72	18	100%	6.0	26.1%	9.4%	16.7%	2.3%	3.75	3.74	+2.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	PIT	30	30	180	760	197	73	18	100%	6.0	25.9%	9.6%	16.4%	2.4%	3.79	3.82	+2.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	PIT	29	29	172	726	184	71	19	100%	5.9	25.4%	9.8%	15.6%	2.6%	3.91	3.98	+1.9
2033	30	MLB MLE	PIT	27	27	162	682	168	69	19	100%	6.0	24.7%	10.1%	14.6%	2.8%	4.08	4.19	+1.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	PIT	25	25	151	636	152	66	19	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.4%	13.5%	3.0%	4.29	4.42	+0.8
2035	32	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	139	589	136	64	19	100%	6.1	23.1%	10.8%	12.3%	3.2%	4.52	4.68	+0.4
2036	33	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	128	540	120	61	19	100%	6.1	22.3%	11.3%	11.0%	3.5%	4.78	4.96	-0.1
2037	34	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	116	491	105	58	19	100%	6.1	21.4%	11.8%	9.6%	3.8%	5.07	5.26	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	PIT	29	29	160	676	167	66	14	100%	5.5	24.7%	9.8%	14.9%	2.1%	3.94	3.79	+2.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	PIT	29	29	171	722	185	68	15	100%	5.9	25.6%	9.4%	16.2%	2.1%	3.77	3.65	+2.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	PIT	28	28	171	722	188	67	15	100%	6.1	26.1%	9.3%	16.7%	2.1%	3.67	3.61	+2.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	PIT	28	28	171	722	188	68	15	100%	6.1	26.1%	9.4%	16.7%	2.1%	3.65	3.64	+2.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	PIT	28	28	171	722	187	69	16	100%	6.1	25.9%	9.6%	16.4%	2.2%	3.69	3.72	+2.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	PIT	27	27	163	688	175	67	16	100%	6.0	25.4%	9.8%	15.6%	2.4%	3.80	3.87	+1.8
2033	30	MLB CTX	PIT	26	26	154	650	160	66	17	100%	5.9	24.7%	10.1%	14.6%	2.6%	3.97	4.08	+1.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	PIT	24	24	143	604	144	63	17	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.4%	13.5%	2.8%	4.17	4.30	+0.8
2035	32	MLB CTX	PIT	22	22	132	557	129	60	17	100%	6.0	23.1%	10.8%	12.3%	3.0%	4.39	4.55	+0.3
2036	33	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	122	515	115	58	17	100%	6.1	22.3%	11.3%	11.0%	3.2%	4.64	4.82	-0.1
2037	34	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	105	443	95	52	16	100%	5.8	21.4%	11.8%	9.6%	3.5%	4.91	5.10	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		317	313	1850	7817	1906	785	191	99%	5.8	24.4%	10.0%	14.3%	2.4%	4.01	3.65	+28.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	845	206	85	21	99%	5.8	24.4%	10.0%	14.3%	2.4%	4.01	3.65	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		124	114	545	2315	520	258	58	92%	4.4	22.5%	11.2%	11.3%	2.5%	3.88	3.99	+18.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	42	200	849	191	95	21	92%	4.4	22.5%	11.2%	11.3%	2.5%	3.88	3.99	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bubba Chandler (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.67	27.1%	8.6%	2.5%	—	3.77	25.5%	16.0%	529	+0.10	—	—	—
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	78
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	74
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	73
Ryan Zeferjahn R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	17.0%	8.6%	2.4%	.361	4.26	24.5%	11.0%	167	+0.20	3.08	344	73
Andrés Machado R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.70	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.68	3.63	530	72
Troy Melton R 2023 · 3.31 FIP	22	SP	3.31	18.9%	7.4%	1.6%	.299	4.24	22.3%	15.0%	330	+0.93	3.31	422	72
Matt Brash R 2021 · 3.46 FIP	23	SP	3.46	27.8%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	2.76	32.2%	20.3%	147	-0.70	1.91	309	71
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	71
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	71
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	70
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	70
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	70
Tristan Beck R 2019 · 3.48 FIP	23	SP	3.48	19.1%	10.1%	1.3%	.375	4.02	20.2%	11.7%	141	+0.54	3.48	495	69
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	69
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	69
Shawn Dubin R 2019 · 3.02 FIP	23	SP-	3.02	24.3%	11.5%	0.9%	.281	3.15	29.6%	17.6%	108	+0.13	3.02	341	69
Jordan Romano R 2016 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	18.1%	10.8%	1.4%	.240	3.95	19.3%	10.1%	328	+0.26	2.40	687	69
Carson Seymour R 2022 · 3.39 FIP	23	SP-	3.39	22.4%	7.8%	2.2%	.295	4.44	19.5%	9.9%	360	+1.05	3.39	572	69
Levi Stoudt R 2021 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	19.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.257	5.58	15.7%	5.8%	289	+1.00	4.35	395	69
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.3	155	24.8%	10.0%	1.04	4.09
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67