Bubba Chandler — OGILVIE

Bubba Chandler P Pittsburgh Pirates

+2.2 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 206 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.5 · 2029

ERA4.01

FIP4.00

xFIP4.91

SIERA5.24

K%24.4%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%14.6%

IP120

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.5peak

2029

OFP—60

K†6565

FB Velo

p9098.7

Whiff%

p5225.6%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p280.338

CH+1.4 (20%)

FB (56%)

CU (2%)

SL (22%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	19	A	Bradenton Marauders	14	11	41	173	60	28	3	24.7%	19.5%	2.1%	2.61	4.61	+0.2
2023	20	AA	Altoona Curve	25	25	111	484	128	51	15	19.7%	12.5%	3.4%	4.54	4.90	+0.5
2024	21	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	26	23	120	479	148	41	9	25.8%	9.3%	2.5%	3.08	3.46	+2.5
2025	22	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	28	131	566	152	57	10	24.3%	10.5%	2.0%	4.04	3.50	+2.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	3	3	14	63	14	12	2	22.2%	19.0%	3.2%	3.86	5.38	-0.1
ROS	23	MLB	PIT	19	19	106	448	119	50	12	26.7%	11.1%	2.7%	3.89	3.75	+1.9
2026 Total	23	MLB	PIT	—	—	120	511	133	62	14	26.1%	12.1%	2.8%	3.88	3.94	+1.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	PIT	25	25	139	587	157	60	16	26.7%	10.2%	2.7%	4.12	4.01	+2.0
2028	25	MLB	PIT	28	28	153	645	172	62	18	26.7%	9.6%	2.7%	4.02	3.94	+2.4
2029	26	MLB	PIT	29	29	160	674	180	64	18	26.7%	9.5%	2.7%	3.97	3.93	+2.5
2030	27	MLB	PIT	30	30	162	686	182	65	19	26.6%	9.4%	2.8%	3.96	3.95	+2.5
2031	28	MLB	PIT	29	29	162	684	182	65	19	26.5%	9.5%	2.8%	3.97	3.98	+2.4
2032	29	MLB	PIT	29	29	158	669	174	64	19	26.1%	9.6%	2.8%	4.02	4.05	+2.2
2033	30	MLB	PIT	28	28	154	649	166	63	19	25.5%	9.7%	2.9%	4.09	4.14	+2.0
2034	31	MLB	PIT	27	27	148	626	156	61	19	24.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.18	4.25	+1.8
2035	32	MLB	PIT	26	26	142	601	146	60	18	24.3%	10.0%	3.0%	4.29	4.36	+1.5
2036	33	MLB	PIT	25	25	136	574	136	58	18	23.6%	10.1%	3.1%	4.41	4.49	+1.2
2037	34	MLB	PIT	23	23	129	546	125	56	18	22.9%	10.3%	3.2%	4.54	4.63	+1.0
2038	35	MLB	PIT	22	22	122	514	114	54	17	22.2%	10.6%	3.3%	4.68	4.78	+0.7
2039	36	MLB	PIT	21	21	114	481	103	52	17	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	4.84	4.94	+0.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			99	90	417	1765	413	210	46	23.4%	11.9%	2.6%	3.75	4.05	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—			47	43	200	846	198	101	22	23.4%	11.9%	2.6%	3.75	4.05	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bubba Chandler (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.82	28.0%	9.8%	2.7%	—	3.96	26.7%	17.0%	451	+0.14	—	—	—
Yunior Marte R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP-	3.89	18.9%	8.3%	2.4%	.270	3.54	22.5%	12.5%	117	-0.35	3.34	618	72
Matt Brash R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	23	SP-	3.48	27.8%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	2.75	32.2%	20.3%	147	-0.73	1.90	292	72
Levi Stoudt R 2026 · 4.60 FIP	23	SP-	4.60	19.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.257	5.68	16.1%	5.2%	289	+1.08	4.35	395	71
Peyton Pallette R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	23	SP-	4.47	20.7%	10.9%	3.2%	.309	3.67	27.7%	16.5%	64	-0.80	3.67	219	71
Yerry Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP-	3.78	23.8%	10.2%	2.5%	.319	4.82	23.8%	11.0%	163	+1.04	1.89	407	71
Kyle Nicolas R 2026 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	21.0%	13.3%	2.5%	.266	4.00	23.6%	11.3%	227	-0.37	3.30	417	70
Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	3.95	21.4%	10.8%	118	-0.35	2.58	199	69
CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	21.8%	12.7%	3.6%	.302	4.62	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.21	2.74	347	69
Carson Seymour R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	23	SP-	3.38	22.4%	7.8%	2.1%	.295	4.47	20.2%	9.6%	360	+1.09	3.29	487	68
Brandon Sproat R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP-	4.45	23.0%	10.0%	3.7%	.264	3.85	19.7%	8.8%	159	-0.60	3.58	275	68
Shawn Dubin R 2026 · 3.02 FIP	23	SP-	3.02	24.3%	11.5%	0.9%	.281	3.17	29.6%	17.6%	108	+0.15	3.02	341	68
Jorge Alcala R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.4%	12.9%	2.1%	.291	4.15	22.6%	15.1%	186	-0.08	2.53	600	68
David Festa R 2026 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP-	3.70	24.6%	11.6%	2.2%	.341	3.76	27.5%	18.8%	209	+0.06	3.66	405	68
Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	23	SP-	4.81	21.4%	10.8%	3.9%	.236	4.64	22.3%	3.9%	180	-0.17	4.22	289	68
Cody Morris R 2025 · 3.68 FIP	22	SP-	3.68	21.6%	8.1%	2.5%	.362	2.90	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.78	2.23	256	68
Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	68
Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	68
Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.60 FIP	23	SP-	3.60	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.55	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.05	3.55	205	67
Emmanuel Chapman R 2028 · 4.03 FIP	25	SP-	4.03	19.7%	10.6%	2.3%	.256	3.80	18.2%	4.1%	73	-0.23	3.80	154	67
Corey Black R 2026 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP-	4.18	22.1%	13.9%	2.1%	.310	3.55	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.55	139	67

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.221 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$16M	+$15M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$16M	+$16M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.4	$20M	+$20M
2029	Arb-1	$8M	+2.5	$22M	+$14M
2030	Arb-2	$14M	+2.5	$23M	+$8M
2031	Arb-3	$21M	+2.4	$22M	+$1M
Totals		$46M		$119M	+$74M