Bubba Chandler — OGILVIE

Bubba Chandler P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 206 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.0 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION94 act + 63 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 91

ERA4.07

FIP3.99

K%22.9%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP63

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 157 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6060

CTRL5055

CMD4550

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.5

Whiff%

p3523.1%

p3620.2%

xwOBA vs

p480.314

CH+1.4 (17%)

FB (55%)

SI (7%)

CU (3%)

SL (25%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.221 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$12M	+$12M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+1.9	$12M	+$7M
2030	Arb-2	$12M	+1.9	$11M	+$4M
2031	Arb-3	$17M	+1.8	$10M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$20M		$59M	+$35M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	19	MIX	2 levels	14	11	41	173	60	28	3	79%	3.0	24.7%	19.5%	5.2%	1.8%	2.61	4.50	—
2022	19	MIX	2 levels	14	11	41	173	60	28	3	79%	3.0	34.7%	16.2%	18.5%	1.7%	2.61	3.17	—
2023	20	MIX	2 levels	25	25	111	484	128	51	15	100%	4.4	19.7%	12.5%	7.2%	2.9%	4.54	4.59	—
2023	20	MIX	2 levels	25	25	111	484	128	51	15	100%	4.4	26.4%	10.5%	15.9%	3.1%	4.54	3.93	—
2024	21	MIX	2 levels	26	23	120	479	148	41	9	88%	4.6	25.8%	9.3%	16.6%	3.1%	3.08	3.80	—
2024	21	MIX	2 levels	26	23	120	479	148	41	9	88%	4.6	30.9%	8.6%	22.3%	1.9%	3.08	2.63	—
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	31	28	131	566	152	57	10	90%	4.2	24.3%	10.5%	13.8%	2.2%	4.04	3.61	+2.8
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	31	28	131	566	152	57	10	90%	4.2	26.9%	10.1%	16.8%	1.8%	4.04	3.08	+3.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	19	18	94	421	85	54	10	95%	5.0	20.2%	12.8%	7.4%	2.4%	4.77	4.32	+1.1
ROS	23	MLB	PIT	12	12	63	266	61	30	7	100%	5.2	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	2.5%	4.07	3.99	+0.5
ROS	23	MLB	PIT	12	12	63	266	61	30	7	100%	5.2	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	2.5%	4.07	3.99	+0.5
2026 TOT	23	MLB	PIT	—	—	157	687	146	84	17	—	—	21.2%	12.3%	9.0%	2.4%	4.49	4.19	+2.2
2026 FULL	23	MLB	PIT	—	—	157	664	146	84	17	—	—	22.0%	12.7%	9.3%	2.5%	4.49	4.23	+2.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	PIT	24	24	135	571	143	60	14	100%	5.6	25.1%	10.6%	14.5%	2.5%	4.20	4.07	+2.1
2028	25	MLB	PIT	26	26	155	654	170	66	16	100%	6.0	25.9%	10.0%	15.9%	2.5%	4.03	3.92	+2.7
2029	26	MLB	PIT	28	28	167	705	186	70	18	100%	6.0	26.4%	10.0%	16.4%	2.5%	3.94	3.88	+3.0
2030	27	MLB	PIT	28	28	168	711	187	72	18	100%	6.0	26.4%	10.1%	16.3%	2.5%	3.93	3.92	+2.9
2031	28	MLB	PIT	28	28	168	711	187	73	19	100%	6.0	26.2%	10.2%	16.0%	2.6%	3.98	4.01	+2.7
2032	29	MLB	PIT	27	27	161	679	174	71	19	100%	6.0	25.6%	10.4%	15.2%	2.8%	4.09	4.17	+2.3
2033	30	MLB	PIT	25	25	151	638	159	69	19	100%	6.0	24.9%	10.8%	14.2%	3.0%	4.26	4.37	+1.8
2034	31	MLB	PIT	24	24	141	595	144	66	19	100%	5.9	24.2%	11.1%	13.1%	3.2%	4.47	4.60	+1.3
2035	32	MLB	PIT	22	22	130	551	129	63	19	100%	5.9	23.4%	11.5%	11.9%	3.5%	4.70	4.86	+0.8
2036	33	MLB	PIT	20	20	120	505	114	60	19	100%	6.0	22.5%	11.9%	10.6%	3.7%	4.96	5.14	+0.4
2037	34	MLB	PIT	18	18	109	459	99	57	19	100%	6.0	21.6%	12.4%	9.2%	4.0%	5.25	5.44	-0.1
2027	24	MLB	PIT	23	23	128	540	136	57	13	100%	5.6	25.1%	10.6%	14.5%	2.5%	4.19	4.06	+2.0
2028	25	MLB	PIT	25	25	147	621	161	62	15	100%	5.9	25.9%	10.0%	15.9%	2.5%	4.02	3.91	+2.6
2029	26	MLB	PIT	26	26	159	671	177	67	17	100%	6.1	26.4%	10.0%	16.4%	2.5%	3.93	3.87	+2.8
2030	27	MLB	PIT	27	27	160	676	178	68	17	100%	5.9	26.4%	10.1%	16.3%	2.5%	3.92	3.91	+2.8
2031	28	MLB	PIT	27	27	160	676	177	69	18	100%	5.9	26.2%	10.2%	16.0%	2.6%	3.97	4.00	+2.6
2032	29	MLB	PIT	26	26	153	646	166	68	18	100%	5.9	25.6%	10.4%	15.2%	2.8%	4.08	4.16	+2.2
2033	30	MLB	PIT	24	24	144	608	152	65	18	100%	6.0	24.9%	10.8%	14.2%	3.0%	4.25	4.36	+1.7
2034	31	MLB	PIT	22	22	134	566	137	63	18	100%	6.1	24.2%	11.1%	13.1%	3.2%	4.46	4.59	+1.3
2035	32	MLB	PIT	21	21	124	524	122	60	18	100%	5.9	23.4%	11.5%	11.9%	3.4%	4.69	4.85	+0.8
2036	33	MLB	PIT	19	19	114	481	108	58	18	100%	6.0	22.5%	11.9%	10.6%	3.7%	4.95	5.13	+0.4
2037	34	MLB	PIT	16	16	98	414	90	52	17	100%	6.1	21.6%	12.4%	9.2%	4.0%	5.24	5.43	-0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			294	290	1709	7230	1780	776	205	99%	5.8	24.6%	10.7%	13.9%	2.8%	4.30	3.94	+29.2
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	846	208	91	24	99%	5.8	24.6%	10.7%	13.9%	2.8%	4.30	3.94	+3.4
Career	—			115	105	498	2123	484	252	55	91%	4.3	22.8%	11.9%	10.9%	2.6%	3.94	4.09	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—			46	42	200	853	195	101	22	91%	4.3	22.8%	11.9%	10.9%	2.6%	3.94	4.09	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bubba Chandler (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.77	28.3%	9.7%	2.7%	—	3.95	25.8%	15.7%	457	+0.18	—	—	—
Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	20.3%	9.9%	2.3%	.315	4.36	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.44	3.76	537	76
Jonathan Pintaro R 2029 · 3.52 FIP	26	SP	3.52	18.9%	9.4%	1.5%	.264	3.82	24.9%	12.4%	117	+0.30	3.12	187	74
Gus Varland R 2025 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP-	4.13	19.6%	8.7%	2.9%	.294	5.81	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.68	2.54	304	73
Bryce Jarvis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	23	SP	4.78	21.2%	11.0%	3.8%	.276	5.00	18.0%	6.0%	296	+0.22	4.22	513	73
Glenn Sparkman R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP	3.90	20.0%	11.6%	1.8%	.296	3.61	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.29	3.48	363	72
TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.82 FIP	23	SP	4.82	21.7%	13.8%	3.3%	.311	5.12	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.30	3.36	432	72
Ryan Zeferjahn R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP	4.23	17.0%	8.6%	2.7%	.361	4.31	24.8%	10.9%	167	+0.08	3.30	323	72
Matt Brash R 2026 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP	3.51	27.8%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	2.73	32.2%	20.3%	147	-0.78	1.92	309	72
Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	23.2%	10.7%	2.5%	.239	5.71	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.84	3.87	325	71
Andrés Machado R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.87	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.85	3.64	530	70
Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	22.0%	10.4%	4.2%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	-0.02	3.51	140	70
Jared Karros R 2026 · 3.31 FIP	23	SP	3.31	21.9%	9.2%	1.6%	.281	7.92	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.61	3.31	191	70
Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	23	SP-	3.56	21.9%	8.3%	2.3%	.284	3.43	20.0%	10.3%	195	-0.13	2.97	258	70
Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	18.9%	10.3%	2.6%	.329	4.33	21.3%	10.9%	132	+0.09	2.63	213	69
Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP-	4.45	21.5%	12.1%	3.0%	.275	4.09	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.36	3.05	181	69
Kyle Nicolas R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	21.0%	13.3%	2.4%	.266	3.93	23.6%	11.3%	227	-0.38	3.33	475	69
Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.29 FIP	24	SP-	3.29	23.4%	11.9%	1.2%	.316	4.60	23.0%	9.5%	109	+1.31	3.29	142	69
Jared Lyons R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	22.1%	14.4%	2.5%	.258	3.67	18.9%	11.8%	126	-0.75	3.27	218	69
Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.6%	7.4%	2.6%	.241	5.26	18.3%	7.9%	176	+1.61	3.65	211	69
Jordan Romano R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP	3.72	18.1%	10.8%	1.4%	.240	3.98	19.3%	10.1%	328	+0.26	2.40	670	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	12	143	25.2%	10.7%	1.13	4.26
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Trevor Bauer ('21)	7	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
James Paxton ('24)	8	106	25.8%	7.7%	1.12	3.89