Bubba Chandler

P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 206 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.8 · 2029

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	26	23	120	3.08	2.63	30.9%	8.6%	—	K 25.6% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.47
2025	22	MIX2 levels	31	28	131	4.04	3.08	26.9%	10.1%	3.8	K 23.9% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.38
2026	23	MLBPIT	31	30	154	4.50	4.09	20.8%	11.7%	2.4
2027PROJ	24	MLBPIT	21	21	119	4.22	4.16	24.5%	10.7%	1.7
2028PROJ95% MLB	25	MLBPIT	19	19	113	4.00	3.92	25.2%	10.1%	1.9
2029PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBPIT	19	19	113	3.93	3.88	25.5%	10.0%	1.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.221First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$4M2030Arb-2$6M2031Arb-3$7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs44

K%41

Form5.87 ERA (proj 4.22) · K 21.9% (proj 24.5%) · BB 11.4% (proj 10.7%) ▼ last 60d · 23 IP through Oct 27

CompsBrandon Sproat (age 23) · Luke Weaver (age 24) · Dom Hamel (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.22

FIP4.16

K%24.5%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP119

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 119 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$46M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.3

Whiff%

p2822.2%

p4120.8%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.221 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$14M	+$13M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$14M	+$13M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+1.9	$13M	+$9M
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+1.4	$9M	+$5M
2031	Arb-3	$7M	+1.2	$7M	+$2M
Totals		$19M		$57M	+$43M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	11	41	173	60	28	3	79%	3.0	24.7%	19.5%	5.2%	2.0%	2.61	4.60	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	11	41	173	60	28	3	79%	3.0	34.7%	16.2%	18.5%	1.7%	2.61	3.17	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	111	484	128	51	15	100%	4.4	19.7%	12.5%	7.2%	3.3%	4.54	4.85	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	111	484	128	51	15	100%	4.4	26.4%	10.5%	15.9%	3.1%	4.54	3.93	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	120	479	148	41	9	88%	4.6	25.6%	8.8%	16.8%	2.6%	3.08	3.47	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	120	479	148	41	9	88%	4.6	25.6%	8.8%	16.8%	2.6%	3.08	3.47	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	120	479	148	41	9	88%	4.6	30.9%	8.6%	22.3%	1.9%	3.08	2.63	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	28	131	566	152	57	10	90%	4.2	23.9%	9.1%	14.7%	2.1%	4.04	3.38	+3.2
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	28	131	566	152	57	10	90%	4.2	23.9%	9.1%	14.7%	2.1%	4.04	3.38	+3.2
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	28	131	566	152	57	10	90%	4.2	26.9%	10.1%	16.8%	1.8%	4.04	3.08	+3.8
2026	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	30	154	674	140	79	15	97%	5.0	20.8%	11.7%	9.1%	2.4%	4.50	4.15	+2.3
2026	23	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	30	154	674	140	79	15	97%	5.0	20.8%	11.7%	9.1%	2.4%	4.50	4.15	+2.3
2026	23	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	31	30	154	674	140	79	15	97%	5.0	20.8%	11.7%	9.1%	2.2%	4.50	4.09	+2.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			38	34	185	798	171	83	17	89%	4.9	21.4%	10.4%	11.0%	2.1%	4.42	3.79	+3.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	PIT	21	21	119	502	123	54	13	100%	5.7	24.5%	10.7%	13.8%	2.5%	4.22	4.16	+1.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	119	501	126	51	13	100%	5.9	25.2%	10.1%	15.1%	2.5%	4.10	4.02	+1.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	PIT	20	20	119	501	128	50	13	100%	5.9	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	2.5%	4.03	3.98	+2.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	90	381	97	39	10	100%	6.0	25.5%	10.1%	15.4%	2.6%	4.03	4.02	+1.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	PIT	14	14	85	360	91	37	10	100%	6.1	25.4%	10.3%	15.1%	2.7%	4.08	4.11	+1.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	PIT	12	12	74	313	78	33	9	100%	6.2	24.8%	10.5%	14.3%	2.8%	4.19	4.27	+1.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	PIT	10	10	61	256	62	28	8	100%	6.1	24.1%	10.8%	13.3%	3.0%	4.36	4.48	+0.7
2034	31	MLB MLE	PIT	8	8	47	197	46	22	6	100%	5.8	23.4%	11.2%	12.2%	3.3%	4.57	4.71	+0.4
2035	32	MLB MLE	PIT	6	6	33	140	32	16	5	100%	5.5	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	3.5%	4.81	4.96	+0.2
2036	33	MLB MLE	PIT	4	4	22	92	20	11	3	100%	5.5	21.7%	12.0%	9.7%	3.8%	5.07	5.24	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	113	477	120	48	11	100%	5.9	25.2%	10.1%	15.1%	2.3%	4.00	3.92	+1.9
2029	26	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	113	477	122	48	11	100%	5.9	25.5%	10.0%	15.5%	2.3%	3.93	3.88	+1.9
2030	27	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	86	363	93	37	9	100%	6.1	25.5%	10.1%	15.4%	2.4%	3.92	3.91	+1.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	81	342	87	35	8	100%	5.8	25.4%	10.3%	15.1%	2.5%	3.97	4.00	+1.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	70	296	73	31	8	100%	5.8	24.8%	10.5%	14.3%	2.6%	4.07	4.15	+0.9
2033	30	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	58	245	59	26	7	100%	5.8	24.1%	10.8%	13.3%	2.8%	4.24	4.36	+0.6
2034	31	MLB CTX	PIT	7	7	44	186	43	21	6	100%	6.3	23.4%	11.2%	12.2%	3.0%	4.44	4.58	+0.4
2035	32	MLB CTX	PIT	5	5	32	135	30	16	4	100%	6.4	22.6%	11.6%	11.0%	3.2%	4.67	4.82	+0.2
2036	33	MLB CTX	PIT	4	4	21	89	19	11	3	100%	5.2	21.7%	12.0%	9.7%	3.5%	4.91	5.08	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		141	137	802	3402	817	355	84	97%	5.7	24.0%	10.4%	13.6%	2.5%	4.17	3.75	+16.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	848	204	89	21	97%	5.7	24.0%	10.4%	13.6%	2.5%	4.17	3.75	+4.0
Career	—	MLE		127	117	557	2376	536	267	60	92%	4.4	22.6%	11.2%	11.3%	2.5%	3.96	4.01	+12.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	42	200	853	192	96	22	92%	4.4	22.6%	11.2%	11.3%	2.5%	3.96	4.01	+3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 100 IPFIP 3.30 → 3.67 (+0.37)K% 27.4% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.38%	—	×0.860	23.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.99%	—	×0.900	10.79%
HR / BF /BF	1.81%	÷0.915	×1.100	2.18%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 3.30 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAltoona Curve · 80 IPFIP 2.85 → 3.93 (+1.08)K% 29.4% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.38%	—	×0.810	23.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.12%	—	×1.100	8.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷0.844	×1.200	3.11%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 2.85 → 3.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 39 IPFIP 2.12 → 2.54 (+0.43)K% 34.0% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.96%	—	×0.860	29.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.43%	—	×0.900	8.49%
HR / BF /BF	1.26%	÷0.909	×1.100	1.52%

Result: FIP 2.12 → 2.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 106 IPFIP 4.07 → 4.85 (+0.77)K% 25.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.64%	—	×0.770	19.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.90%	—	×1.150	12.53%
HR / BF /BF	3.21%	÷1.202	×1.250	3.33%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 140).

Result: FIP 4.07 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ABradenton Marauders · 26 IPFIP 4.10 → 5.34 (+1.24)K% 28.9% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.95%	—	×0.740	21.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.79%	—	×1.180	18.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.111	×1.300	3.08%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 122).

Result: FIP 4.10 → 5.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Pirates · 15 IPFIP 1.38 → 3.16 (+1.77)K% 45.8% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	45.76%	—	×0.680	31.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.95%	—	×1.250	21.19%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.977	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 1.38 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bubba Chandler (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	4.01	25.4%	15.3%	328	-0.15	—	—	—
Brandon Sproat R 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.264	3.94	21.7%	11.0%	261	-0.45	3.43	377	73
Luke Weaver R 2018 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	19.9%	8.5%	3.4%	.314	3.85	24.1%	18.0%	182	-0.50	2.54	1,043	72
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.10	18.0%	7.8%	304	+1.16	3.61	547	70
Carson Seymour R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	19.8%	10.2%	2.3%	.292	4.51	19.4%	10.1%	355	+0.55	3.39	579	70
Chase Dollander R 2024 · 3.11 FIP	22	SP	3.11	26.5%	10.6%	1.7%	.315	4.48	20.5%	9.7%	157	+1.37	3.11	275	68
Jeff Hoffman R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	18.7%	8.9%	2.4%	.291	4.62	20.9%	11.4%	282	+0.63	1.98	1,071	68
Mike Foltynewicz R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	24	SP	3.97	21.1%	7.6%	3.1%	.280	3.76	23.0%	14.8%	505	-0.21	3.17	957	68
Gavin Williams R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	24	SP	3.55	25.8%	10.0%	2.5%	.252	3.77	28.2%	18.3%	440	+0.22	3.39	697	68
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	68
Mason Barnett R 2024 · 3.97 FIP	23	SP	3.97	23.1%	9.5%	2.9%	.316	4.91	18.5%	7.3%	258	+0.94	3.45	505	67
Yordano Ventura R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	24	SP	3.44	22.5%	8.2%	2.2%	.300	4.48	17.6%	8.2%	186	+1.04	3.44	548	67
Taylor Clarke R 2017 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP	4.24	19.0%	9.4%	2.8%	.274	4.71	18.0%	9.7%	317	+0.47	3.36	973	67
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.70	666	67
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	24	SP-	4.43	21.5%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.80	20.9%	14.6%	156	-0.63	2.39	500	67
Daniel Cabrera R 2005 · 3.83 FIP	24	SP	3.83	21.9%	11.9%	2.0%	.283	4.53	17.4%	5.3%	532	+0.70	3.83	967	66
Hayden Birdsong R 2024 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	26.7%	12.6%	3.4%	.259	5.27	22.0%	9.0%	105	+0.95	3.29	326	66
Chad Kuhl R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP	4.03	20.9%	9.6%	2.7%	.311	4.88	21.9%	11.3%	131	+0.85	3.92	983	66
AJ Blubaugh R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SP	4.19	20.8%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	4.34	22.1%	11.3%	227	+0.15	1.59	465	66
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	66
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	79	24.1%	10.5%	1.02	4.25
Dick Selma ('65-'74, 6 WAR*)	4.2	93	24.5%*	11.1%*	1.12*	4.28*
Brandon Morrow ('18)	4.3	78	24.0%	10.1%	0.92	3.96
Jim Gott ('82-'95, 10 WAR*)	5.6	93	23.6%*	9.7%*	0.91*	4.20*
Don Aase ('77-'90, 12 WAR*)	5.5	92	20.7%*	9.6%*	0.94*	4.14*
Darren Dreifort ('04)	4.4	97	21.2%	10.3%	0.93	4.36
Juan Cruz ('12)	3.3	60	23.1%	12.1%	0.92	4.05