Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 27 | 149 | 619 | 118 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 5.5 | 15.0% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 2.0% | 3.31 | 3.70 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 27 | 149 | 619 | 118 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.1% | 5.3% | 13.7% | 2.1% | 3.31 | 3.31 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 145 | 599 | 138 | 52 | 15 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.0% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 3.35 | 4.22 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 145 | 599 | 138 | 52 | 15 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.0% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 2.5% | 3.35 | 3.62 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | 27 | 27 | 152 | 637 | 125 | 43 | 12 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 1.9% | 4.03 | 3.59 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | 27 | 27 | 152 | 637 | 125 | 43 | 12 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.6% | 6.8% | 12.9% | 1.9% | 4.03 | 3.33 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 24 | 127 | 553 | 99 | 47 | 29 | 75% | 4.0 | 17.4% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 5.44 | 5.62 | -0.3 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 24 | 127 | 553 | 99 | 47 | 29 | 75% | 4.0 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 5.2% | 5.44 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 12 | 5 | 43 | 183 | 40 | 19 | 8 | 42% | 3.6 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 4.2% | 4.36 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 12 | 5 | 43 | 183 | 40 | 19 | 8 | 42% | 3.6 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 4.4% | 4.36 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 1 | 51 | 228 | 48 | 16 | 4 | 2% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 6.2% | 13.9% | 2.0% | 5.12 | 3.27 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 1 | 51 | 228 | 48 | 16 | 4 | 2% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 7.0% | 14.0% | 1.8% | 5.12 | 3.18 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 50 | 207 | 49 | 8 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 3.9% | 19.7% | 3.2% | 3.96 | 3.34 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 50 | 207 | 49 | 8 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 3.9% | 19.8% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 3.18 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 58 | 2 | 59 | 266 | 65 | 23 | 12 | 3% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 8.6% | 15.8% | 4.8% | 5.95 | 4.78 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 58 | 2 | 59 | 266 | 65 | 23 | 12 | 3% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 8.6% | 15.8% | 4.5% | 5.95 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 22 | 15 | 68 | 293 | 56 | 17 | 11 | 68% | 3.1 | 16.8% | 6.1% | 10.7% | 5.0% | 4.90 | 5.22 | — |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 22 | 15 | 68 | 293 | 56 | 17 | 11 | 68% | 3.1 | 19.1% | 5.8% | 13.3% | 3.8% | 4.90 | 4.31 | — |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 70 | 265 | 53 | 14 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 5.4% | 14.2% | 3.6% | 3.49 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 70 | 265 | 53 | 14 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 5.3% | 14.7% | 3.4% | 3.49 | 3.86 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 42 | 0 | 42 | 158 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.6% | 4.4% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 2.59 | 3.82 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.7% | 5.9% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 4.16 | 4.22 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 5.9% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.20 | 4.26 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 50 | 194 | 29 | 9 | 5 | — | — | 15.1% | 4.7% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 2.86 | 3.89 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 50 | 212 | 29 | 9 | 5 | — | — | 13.9% | 4.3% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 2.87 | 3.84 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 44 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 34 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 6.4% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 4.72 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 39 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 29 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.6% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 5.01 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 34 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 6.4% | 11.1% | 3.8% | 4.77 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 29 | 12 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.6% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 4.2% | 5.06 | 5.25 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 367 | 22 | 472 | 1982 | 396 | 135 | 81 | 6% | 1.3 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 13.2% | 4.1% | 4.57 | 4.51 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 156 | 9 | 200 | 840 | 168 | 57 | 34 | 6% | 1.3 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 13.2% | 4.1% | 4.57 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 407 | 128 | 956 | 4008 | 737 | 292 | 130 | 31% | 2.3 | 18.4% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.15 | 4.25 | +12.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 27 | 200 | 838 | 154 | 61 | 27 | 31% | 2.3 | 18.4% | 7.3% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.15 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Taylor Clarke (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 20.5% | 6.6% | 3.7% | — | 5.02 | 17.1% | 10.4% | 87 | +0.39 | — | — | — |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.91 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 69 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 68 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 67 |
| Hector Navarro R 2028 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 67 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.41 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.36 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +0.95 | 3.41 | 144 | 66 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 66 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.58 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .335 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -0.95 | 2.63 | 144 | 66 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 66 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 66 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 65 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.80 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 149 | 65 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 65 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 65 |
| Tommy Nance R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.48 | 20.5% | 6.3% | 2.4% | .327 | 3.16 | 25.6% | 18.5% | 130 | -0.32 | 2.23 | 367 | 65 |
| Casey Fien R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.11 | 15.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 136 | 65 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.23 | 14.8% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .331 | 4.76 | 14.9% | 5.8% | 48 | +0.53 | 3.20 | 244 | 64 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.95 | 19.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | .277 | 4.37 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 16 | +0.42 | 2.95 | 260 | 64 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.77 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 272 | 64 |
| Pedro Rodriguez R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.95 | 14.7% | 4.9% | 2.7% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 145 | 64 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.59 | 18.4% | 4.7% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.60 | 283 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 46 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 1.48 | 4.75 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |