Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 25% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 4.2% | 45.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.59 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 25% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 4.2% | 45.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.48 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 115 | 476 | 137 | 50 | 5 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 1.4% | 3.30 | 3.49 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 115 | 476 | 137 | 50 | 5 | 100% | 5.0 | 28.8% | 10.5% | 18.3% | 1.1% | 3.30 | 2.59 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 26 | 25 | 133 | 565 | 161 | 49 | 13 | 96% | 5.1 | 23.1% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 4.08 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 26 | 25 | 133 | 565 | 161 | 49 | 13 | 96% | 5.1 | 28.5% | 8.7% | 19.8% | 2.3% | 4.20 | 3.05 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 28 | 141 | 648 | 142 | 76 | 20 | 93% | 4.7 | 19.6% | 12.2% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 6.24 | 4.42 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 28 | 141 | 648 | 142 | 76 | 20 | 93% | 4.7 | 21.9% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 6.24 | 4.54 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Athletics | 22 | 9 | 64 | 277 | 62 | 37 | 11 | 41% | 2.9 | 20.6% | 13.8% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 4.64 | 5.41 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | OAK | 83 | 0 | 87 | 368 | 75 | 46 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 12.4% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 4.69 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | OAK | 83 | 0 | 87 | 367 | 75 | 45 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 12.4% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.32 | 4.69 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 151 | 645 | 137 | 83 | 23 | — | — | 21.3% | 12.8% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 4.45 | 4.99 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 108 | 458 | 137 | 83 | 23 | — | — | 29.9% | 18.0% | 11.9% | 5.0% | 6.21 | 5.57 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 28 | 28 | 168 | 711 | 151 | 82 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 4.98 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 28 | 28 | 170 | 717 | 153 | 81 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.97 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 28 | 28 | 170 | 717 | 152 | 81 | 25 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.3% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 5.01 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 27 | 27 | 160 | 676 | 144 | 78 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.3% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 4.98 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 27 | 27 | 161 | 680 | 145 | 77 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.97 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 27 | 27 | 161 | 680 | 145 | 77 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 5.01 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 181 | 85 | 613 | 2599 | 548 | 300 | 89 | 47% | 3.4 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.66 | +5.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 28 | 200 | 848 | 179 | 98 | 29 | 47% | 3.4 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.66 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 105 | 86 | 461 | 1990 | 434 | 229 | 53 | 82% | 4.4 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.18 | +6.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 37 | 200 | 863 | 188 | 100 | 23 | 82% | 4.4 | 21.8% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mason Barnett (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.93 | 20.3% | 12.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.99 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 508 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 74 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.39 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.65 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 382 | +0.26 | 3.67 | 509 | 73 |
| Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .450 | 4.58 | 17.9% | 4.8% | 170 | -0.22 | 3.80 | 187 | 73 |
| Burch Smith R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 72 |
| Andrew Politi R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.50 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 4.8% | .320 | 4.16 | 23.1% | 13.2% | 138 | -1.34 | 3.45 | 292 | 70 |
| Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 70 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .380 | 4.51 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.25 | 4.50 | 119 | 69 |
| Matt Magill R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.96 | 16.6% | 12.2% | 3.1% | .435 | 4.87 | 18.6% | 8.4% | 195 | -0.09 | 3.45 | 259 | 69 |
| James McArthur R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.08 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 4.2% | .352 | 3.78 | 22.8% | 15.5% | 137 | -1.30 | 3.53 | 352 | 69 |
| Ryan Johnson R 2024 · 4.81 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.81 | 20.1% | 7.2% | 4.5% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 126 | 68 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 68 |
| Justin Topa R 2028 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 68 |
| Sean Mooney R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 68 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 68 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.37 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | .295 | 4.67 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 299 | -0.70 | 3.70 | 776 | 67 |
| Chris Vallimont R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.61 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .304 | 6.00 | 18.1% | 4.9% | 128 | +1.39 | 3.13 | 472 | 67 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 67 |
| Luis Quiñones R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.73 | 23.5% | 17.5% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.91 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 160 | +0.18 | 3.93 | 323 | 67 |
| J.P. France R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 67 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2024 · 5.93 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.93 | 17.4% | 15.3% | 4.3% | .228 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 101 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 154 | 21.1% | 11.5% | 1.28 | 4.83 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |