Mason Barnett P Las Vegas Aviators
+0.2 WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 218 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA5.59
FIP4.74
xFIP5.83
SIERA6.49
K%20.9%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%9.7%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†5050
FB Velo
p4794.3
Whiff%
p2121.2%
K%
p1617.3%
xwOBA vs
p550.307
SL+0.9 (47%)
CU (14%)
CH (2%)
FB (37%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR K%BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202221AColumbia Fireflies4182412100.00
202322AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals232311547613750522.5%12.0%1.3%3.303.43+2.4
202423AAMidland RockHounds2625133565161491323.1%9.5%2.9%4.203.94+2.0
202524MLBAthletics3028141648142762019.6%12.2%3.0%6.244.63+1.1
▸ 2026 Season
202625AAALas Vegas Aviators3315631410419.6%16.7%7.0%3.077.39-0.4
ROS25MLBOAK48482034223720.7%11.2%3.2%5.584.92+0.0
2026 Total25MLBOAK6326656331121.1%12.3%4.0%4.995.50-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
202726MLBOAK2323127536113581721.1%10.8%3.2%5.114.83+0.7
202827MLBOAK2424130549116581821.2%10.6%3.2%4.904.80+0.7
202928MLBOAK2424130549116581821.1%10.5%3.2%4.824.79+0.8
203029MLBOAK2323127537111561820.7%10.5%3.3%4.844.86+0.6
203130MLBOAK2222123521105551720.2%10.6%3.3%4.904.95+0.5
203231MLBOAK222211950398541719.6%10.7%3.4%4.995.05+0.3
203332MLBOAK212111448391521718.9%10.9%3.5%5.105.17+0.2
203433MLBOAK202010946184511618.3%11.0%3.6%5.225.29+0.0
203534MLBOAK191910443877491617.6%11.2%3.7%5.355.43-0.2
203635MLBOAK18189841369471616.8%11.5%3.8%5.495.59-0.3
203736MLBOAK17179138562451516.1%11.7%3.9%5.655.75-0.5
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career868041217763892024621.9%11.3%2.6%4.534.12+5.5
/ 200 IP4239200863189982221.9%11.3%2.6%4.534.12+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Mason Barnett (OGILVIE) 4.92 20.7%11.2%3.2% 4.81 21.1%10.5%387 -0.11
Manny Barreda R 2027 · 5.08 FIP 26 SU 5.08 21.2%14.7%3.5%.286 3.67 19.6%9.5%186 -1.41 3.25 376 86
Michael King R 2026 · 4.12 FIP 25 SU 4.12 21.5%9.1%3.1%.316 2.74 28.3%20.8%219 -1.38 1.98 862 81
Ronel Blanco R 2026 · 5.08 FIP 25 SU 5.08 22.6%12.9%4.1%.342 4.63 27.8%18.6%90 -0.45 3.21 667 78
Matt Magill R 2026 · 4.98 FIP 25 SU 4.98 16.6%12.2%3.2%.435 4.76 18.6%8.4%195 -0.22 3.43 259 78
Jordan Leasure R 2026 · 5.37 FIP 25 SU 5.37 18.3%12.7%4.0%.283 4.52 30.1%19.3%64 -0.85 4.45 193 77
Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.37 FIP 25 SW 4.37 23.0%10.5%3.4%.335 4.48 21.4%11.7%382 +0.11 3.69 509 77
Tyler Bashlor R 2026 · 4.72 FIP 25 SW 4.72 21.3%10.9%3.7%.222 4.52 21.9%10.6%97 -0.20 2.55 253 77
Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.48 FIP 25 SU 4.48 17.1%9.6%2.9%.289 3.53 20.0%7.8%45 -0.95 1.94 131 77
Joe Harvey R 2026 · 3.82 FIP 25 SU 3.82 22.6%9.3%2.6%.183 3.92 25.0%12.7%107 +0.10 2.56 197 76
Blair Henley R 2025 · 4.76 FIP 24 SU 4.76 20.8%12.2%3.4%.450 4.64 17.9%4.8%170 -0.12 4.02 187 76
Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP 25 SU 4.53 20.8%10.1%3.5%.380 4.49 19.3%7.9%101 -0.04 4.37 119 76
Brandon Cunniff R 2027 · 4.25 FIP 26 SU 4.25 24.5%13.2%2.8%.256 4.33 20.3%9.0%115 +0.08 3.88 180 76
Cameron Gann R 2025 · 4.21 FIP 24 SU 4.21 21.4%12.4%2.4%.296 5.37 21.1%6.8%23 +1.16 3.60 146 76
Carlos Alvarado R 2026 · 4.87 FIP 25 SU 4.87 16.3%10.0%3.4%.342 4.09 24.3%14.8%78 -0.78 2.67 102 76
Spencer Bivens R 2029 · 4.85 FIP 28 SU 4.85 19.8%13.5%3.1%.265 3.87 18.2%10.2%272 -0.98 3.45 315 76
Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.01 FIP 25 SU 4.01 20.8%12.0%2.1%.323 4.17 23.4%17.9%58 +0.16 4.01 142 76
Will Latcham R 2026 · 4.42 FIP 25 SU 4.42 18.8%11.5%2.6%.279 3.49 134 75
Jake Lemoine R 2026 · 3.93 FIP 25 SW 3.93 17.7%8.9%2.2%.349 5.12 15.5%3.0%109 +1.19 3.81 290 75
Dylan Hall R 2026 · 3.98 FIP 25 SU 3.98 21.0%13.2%1.8%.305 7.30 15.1%2.4%58 +3.32 3.48 153 75
Vinny Nittoli R 2026 · 4.66 FIP 25 SW 4.66 20.8%9.7%3.8%.286 4.20 19.0%12.1%61 -0.46 3.68 331 75

Contract

ESTIMATED  ·  service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2025
Service   1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2030
First FA Year   2027
DEF 10%
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026Pre-Arb$0.0M+0.2$0.8M+$0.8M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.7$3M+$2M
2028Arb-1$2M+0.7$3M+$0.9M
2029Arb-2$4M+0.7$3M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Arb-3$5M+0.6$3M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $9M $12M +$4M