Jayden Murray — OGILVIE

Jayden Murray P Iowa Cubs

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 97

ERA4.23

FIP4.23

K%20.1%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6195.3

Whiff%

p6527.7%

p1917.7%

xwOBA vs

p100.363

SI (10%)

CH (8%)

CT (5%)

FB (63%)

SL (25%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	96	363	96	17	11	100%	4.8	20.8%	5.3%	15.5%	3.9%	2.16	4.14	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	96	363	96	17	11	100%	4.8	26.4%	4.7%	21.8%	3.0%	2.16	3.12	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	108	457	99	34	13	96%	4.7	16.9%	8.6%	8.3%	3.2%	3.50	4.50	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	108	457	99	34	13	96%	4.7	21.7%	7.4%	14.2%	2.8%	3.50	3.78	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	11	8	41	212	42	32	8	73%	3.8	16.4%	13.6%	2.9%	4.6%	8.27	5.97	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	11	8	41	212	42	32	8	73%	3.8	16.4%	13.6%	2.9%	4.6%	8.27	5.97	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	11	8	41	212	42	32	8	73%	3.8	19.8%	15.1%	4.7%	3.8%	8.27	5.91	—
2024	27	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	2	2	3	13	5	0	1	100%	1.5	38.5%	0.0%	38.5%	7.7%	3.00	4.07	—
2024	27	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	2	2	3	13	5	0	1	100%	1.5	38.5%	0.0%	38.5%	7.7%	3.00	4.07	—
2024	27	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	2	2	3	13	5	0	1	100%	1.5	38.5%	0.0%	38.5%	7.7%	3.00	4.10	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	1	76	324	74	33	5	2%	1.3	19.8%	9.7%	10.0%	2.1%	4.16	3.80	+0.7
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	1	76	324	74	33	5	2%	1.3	19.8%	9.7%	10.0%	2.1%	4.16	3.80	+0.7
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	1	76	324	74	33	5	2%	1.3	22.8%	10.2%	12.7%	1.5%	4.16	3.31	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	1	28	126	22	12	3	5%	1.5	17.5%	9.5%	7.9%	2.4%	6.11	4.21	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	41	0	58	253	60	31	5	0%	1.4	20.6%	11.4%	9.2%	2.1%	5.15	3.95	—
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	41	0	58	253	60	31	5	0%	1.4	20.6%	11.4%	9.2%	2.1%	5.15	3.95	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	CHC	31	0	41	174	46	22	2	0%	1.3	26.4%	12.6%	13.8%	1.1%	3.48	3.10	—
2026	29	MLB RAW	CHC	10	0	16	79	14	9	3	0%	1.6	17.7%	11.4%	6.3%	3.8%	9.37	5.13	-0.1
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	CHC	10	0	16	79	14	9	3	0%	1.6	17.7%	11.4%	6.3%	3.8%	9.37	5.13	-0.1
ROS	29	MLB MLE	CHC	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	10.5%	9.6%	2.7%	4.23	4.23	+0.0
ROS	29	MLB CTX	CHC	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.1%	10.5%	9.6%	2.7%	4.23	4.23	+0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	64	278	65	34	6	—	—	23.4%	12.1%	11.3%	2.0%	5.07	3.98	+0.5
FULL	29	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	22	94	65	34	6	—	—	69.4%	35.9%	33.5%	6.1%	14.50	5.11	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CHC	115	0	120	508	98	53	16	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	3.1%	4.81	4.88	-0.5
2028	31	MLB MLE	CHC	107	0	112	474	91	50	16	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.7%	8.5%	3.3%	4.93	5.03	-0.6
2027	30	MLB CTX	CHC	109	0	114	481	93	51	15	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	3.1%	4.81	4.88	-0.4
2028	31	MLB CTX	CHC	102	0	107	452	87	48	15	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.7%	8.5%	3.3%	4.93	5.03	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		235	1	255	1083	207	113	34	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.5%	8.6%	3.1%	4.99	4.52	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		184	1	200	851	163	89	27	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.5%	8.6%	3.1%	4.99	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		156	53	382	1622	309	148	51	34%	2.4	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	3.2%	4.06	4.38	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	28	200	850	162	77	27	34%	2.4	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	3.2%	4.06	4.38	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jayden Murray (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	19.9%	10.3%	2.8%	—	4.95	19.3%	8.7%	232	+0.34	—	—	—
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	21.9%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.09	24.6%	16.4%	87	-0.42	2.32	186	77
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	76
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	75
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	74
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	74
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	73
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	73
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	72
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	72
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	71
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	71
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	71
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	71
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	71
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	70
Bo Schultz R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SU	4.30	18.3%	7.9%	3.2%	.218	3.49	15.1%	8.9%	77	-0.81	2.73	141	70
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	69
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	69
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	69
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	117	19.5%	10.5%	1.18	4.78
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24