Jayden Murray

P Iowa Cubs

Age 30 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	ROKHOU	2	2	3	3.00	4.10	38.5%	0.0%	—	K 38.5% · BB 0.0% · FIP 4.07
2025	28	MIX2 levels	59	1	76	4.16	3.31	22.8%	10.2%	1.1	K 20.5% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.74
2026	29	MIX2 levels	43	0	60	5.07	3.98	24.4%	13.2%	0.4	K 21.8% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.13
2027PROJ	30	MLBCHC	89	0	93	4.51	4.61	21.5%	11.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ79% MLB	31	MLBCHC	72	0	76	4.67	4.80	20.8%	11.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ84% MLB	32	MLBCHC	62	0	65	4.86	5.01	20.1%	11.5%	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo61

K%19

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsDustin Molleken (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.51

FIP4.61

K%21.5%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%10.1%

Proj IP128

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6195.3

Whiff%

p6527.7%

p1917.7%

xwOBA vs

p100.363

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	96	363	96	17	11	100%	4.8	20.8%	5.3%	15.5%	3.9%	2.16	4.14	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	96	363	96	17	11	100%	4.8	26.4%	4.7%	21.8%	3.0%	2.16	3.12	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	108	457	99	34	13	96%	4.7	16.9%	8.6%	8.3%	3.2%	3.50	4.50	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	108	457	99	34	13	96%	4.7	21.7%	7.4%	14.2%	2.8%	3.50	3.78	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	11	8	41	212	42	32	8	73%	3.8	17.0%	13.6%	3.5%	4.6%	8.27	5.92	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	11	8	41	212	42	32	8	73%	3.8	19.8%	15.1%	4.7%	3.8%	8.27	5.91	—
2024	27	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	2	2	3	13	5	0	1	100%	1.5	38.5%	0.0%	38.5%	7.7%	3.00	4.07	—
2024	27	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	2	2	3	13	5	0	1	100%	1.5	38.5%	0.0%	38.5%	7.7%	3.00	4.07	—
2024	27	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	2	2	3	13	5	0	1	100%	1.5	38.5%	0.0%	38.5%	7.7%	3.00	4.10	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	1	76	324	74	33	5	2%	1.3	20.5%	9.7%	10.7%	2.1%	4.16	3.74	+0.7
2025	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	1	76	324	74	33	5	2%	1.3	20.5%	9.7%	10.7%	2.1%	4.16	3.74	+0.7
2025	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	1	76	324	74	33	5	2%	1.3	22.8%	10.2%	12.7%	1.5%	4.16	3.31	+1.1
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	60	266	65	35	6	0%	1.4	21.8%	12.2%	9.6%	2.4%	5.07	4.13	+0.3
2026	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	60	266	65	35	6	0%	1.4	21.8%	12.2%	9.6%	2.4%	5.07	4.13	+0.3
2026	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	60	266	65	35	6	0%	1.4	24.4%	13.2%	11.3%	2.3%	5.07	3.98	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	1	28	126	22	12	3	5%	1.5	17.5%	9.5%	7.9%	2.4%	6.11	4.21	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	CHC	89	0	93	393	84	45	11	0%	1.0	21.5%	11.4%	10.1%	2.7%	4.51	4.61	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	CHC	90	0	95	401	83	46	12	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	3.0%	4.67	4.80	-0.3
2029	32	MLB MLE	CHC	73	0	77	324	65	37	10	0%	1.1	20.1%	11.5%	8.6%	3.2%	4.86	5.01	-0.4
2028	31	MLB CTX	CHC	72	0	76	321	67	37	10	0%	1.1	20.8%	11.4%	9.4%	3.0%	4.67	4.80	-0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	CHC	62	0	65	274	55	32	9	0%	1.0	20.1%	11.5%	8.6%	3.2%	4.86	5.01	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		153	1	168	718	143	80	21	1%	1.1	19.9%	11.1%	8.8%	3.0%	4.98	4.45	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		181	1	200	854	170	95	25	1%	1.1	19.9%	11.1%	8.8%	3.0%	4.98	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		158	53	384	1635	318	151	53	34%	2.4	19.5%	9.2%	10.2%	3.2%	4.05	4.39	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	28	200	851	166	79	27	34%	2.4	19.5%	9.2%	10.2%	3.2%	4.05	4.39	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 44 IPFIP 3.44 → 3.67 (+0.23)K% 27.3% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.860	23.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.90%	—	×0.900	12.51%
HR / BF /BF	1.60%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.76%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.44 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 64 IPFIP 3.45 → 3.74 (+0.29)K% 23.8% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.83%	—	×0.860	20.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.83%	—	×0.900	9.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.81%	÷0.961	×1.100	2.07%

Result: FIP 3.45 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 41 IPFIP 5.41 → 5.92 (+0.51)K% 19.8% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.81%	—	×0.860	17.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.09%	—	×0.900	13.58%
HR / BF /BF	3.77%	÷0.896	×1.100	4.63%

Result: FIP 5.41 → 5.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 104 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.50 (+0.67)K% 20.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.87%	—	×0.810	16.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.80%	—	×1.100	8.58%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷1.040	×1.200	3.18%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAADurham Bulls · 4 IPFIP 2.50 → 3.05 (+0.55)K% 38.1% → 33.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.10%	—	×0.880	33.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.050	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.034	×1.100	5.07%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 58 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.80 (+0.91)K% 24.3% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.31%	—	×0.770	18.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.59%	—	×1.150	5.28%
HR / BF /BF	2.29%	÷0.978	×1.250	2.93%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 38 IPFIP 3.48 → 4.65 (+1.17)K% 29.7% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.66%	—	×0.810	24.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.83%	—	×1.100	5.31%
HR / BF /BF	4.14%	÷0.938	×1.200	5.30%

Result: FIP 3.48 → 4.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jayden Murray (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	21.5%	11.4%	2.7%	—	4.89	20.5%	9.0%	172	+0.28	—	—	—
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	72
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	71
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	70
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	69
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	69
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	68
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	67
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	67
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	66
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	65
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	65
Derek Law R 2021 · 3.63 FIP	30	SU	3.63	21.0%	11.2%	1.6%	.319	3.43	20.2%	12.5%	212	-0.20	2.49	520	65
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	65
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	64
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	64
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	64
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	64
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	63
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	63
Hector Velázquez R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	30	SW	4.82	19.6%	12.3%	3.3%	.292	3.81	19.2%	10.9%	25	-1.01	2.75	536	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	109	20.6%	11.3%	1.12	4.77
Frank Reberger ('68-'72, -1 WAR*)	1.9	97	19.1%*	10.9%*	1.08*	5.19*
Mike Kilkenny ('69-'73, 0 WAR*)	2.0	102	22.2%*	11.4%*	1.11*	5.16*
Butch Metzger ('74-'78, 0 WAR*)	1.5	98	19.8%*	10.7%*	1.09*	4.50*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87
Brian Tallet ('11)	2.3	92	16.5%	10.4%	1.13	4.79