Jayden Murray
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
AAA
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 56 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114104vR 95
ERA4.15
FIP4.15
K%21.3%
BB%11.5%
K-BB%9.8%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 124 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6195.3
Whiff%
p6527.7%
K%
p1917.7%
xwOBA vs
p100.363
SI (10%)
CH (8%)
CT (5%)
FB (63%)
SL (25%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 96 | 363 | 96 | 17 | 11 | 100% | 4.8 | 20.8% | 5.3% | 15.5% | 4.1% | 2.16 | 4.24 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 96 | 363 | 96 | 17 | 11 | 100% | 4.8 | 26.4% | 4.7% | 21.8% | 3.0% | 2.16 | 3.12 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 108 | 457 | 99 | 34 | 13 | 96% | 4.7 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 3.50 | 4.44 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 108 | 457 | 99 | 34 | 13 | 96% | 4.7 | 21.7% | 7.4% | 14.2% | 2.8% | 3.50 | 3.78 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 11 | 8 | 41 | 212 | 42 | 32 | 8 | 73% | 3.8 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 1.6% | 5.2% | 8.27 | 6.51 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 11 | 8 | 41 | 212 | 42 | 32 | 8 | 73% | 3.8 | 19.8% | 15.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 8.27 | 5.91 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | ROK | FCL Astros | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 100% | 1.5 | 38.5% | 0.0% | 38.5% | 7.7% | 3.00 | 4.07 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | ROK | FCL Astros | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 100% | 1.5 | 38.5% | 0.0% | 38.5% | 7.7% | 3.00 | 4.10 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 1 | 76 | 324 | 74 | 33 | 5 | 2% | 1.3 | 21.0% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 2.2% | 4.16 | 3.95 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 1 | 76 | 324 | 74 | 33 | 5 | 2% | 1.3 | 22.8% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 1.5% | 4.16 | 3.31 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 50 | 0 | 67 | 287 | 68 | 30 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.8% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 1.4% | 4.28 | 3.38 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | HOU | 54 | 0 | 56 | 238 | 51 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 2.5% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | HOU | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 50 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 2.5% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 124 | 525 | 119 | 57 | 10 | — | — | 22.6% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 1.9% | 4.22 | 3.73 | +2.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 86 | 363 | 119 | 57 | 10 | — | — | 32.7% | 15.8% | 16.9% | 2.8% | 6.06 | 3.85 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 115 | 0 | 120 | 508 | 97 | 59 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.99 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 107 | 0 | 112 | 474 | 90 | 55 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 11.6% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 5.03 | 5.14 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 109 | 0 | 114 | 481 | 92 | 56 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 11.6% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.99 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 102 | 0 | 107 | 452 | 86 | 53 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 11.6% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 5.03 | 5.14 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 291 | 1 | 319 | 1358 | 259 | 155 | 39 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 5.03 | 4.52 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 183 | 1 | 200 | 853 | 163 | 97 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 5.03 | 4.52 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 165 | 53 | 391 | 1656 | 325 | 160 | 52 | 32% | 2.4 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 3.93 | 4.38 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 84 | 27 | 200 | 846 | 166 | 82 | 26 | 32% | 2.4 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 3.93 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jayden Murray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 21.0% | 11.8% | 2.8% | — | 5.06 | 19.1% | 7.5% | 232 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 77 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.24 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -1.15 | 2.96 | 230 | 75 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 75 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 74 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 74 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 73 |
| Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 73 |
| Joe Colón J R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 72 |
| Noah Song R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.96 | 16.6% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 106 | 72 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 71 |
| Mike Adams R 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 71 |
| Angel Castro R 2029 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 71 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 173 | 71 |
| Drew Hayes R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 13.8% | 10.1% | 1.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 117 | 71 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.54 | 16.5% | 10.4% | 2.8% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 187 | 71 |
| Wil Browning R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.58 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.12 | 162 | 70 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 70 |
| Hunter Strickland R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.23 | 18.4% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.60 | 22.0% | 13.3% | 83 | +0.37 | 2.30 | 523 | 70 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.87 | 232 | 70 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 106 | 19.6% | 11.7% | 1.18 | 4.91 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |