Jayden Murray
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
xFIP5.71
SIERA5.42
K%21.7%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%10.9%
IP60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF5050
CTRL4545
CMD5050
K†5050
SI (16%)
CT (15%)
FB (60%)
SL (25%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 20 | 20 | 96 | 363 | 96 | 17 | 11 | 20.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.16 | 4.12 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 23 | 22 | 108 | 457 | 99 | 34 | 13 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 3.50 | 4.52 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 11 | 8 | 41 | 212 | 42 | 32 | 8 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 4.5% | 8.27 | 6.10 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 27 | ROK | FCL Astros | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 59 | 1 | 76 | 324 | 74 | 33 | 5 | 21.0% | 11.4% | 2.1% | 4.16 | 3.90 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Houston Astros | 8 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 12 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | HOU | 22 | — | 22 | 92 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 32 | 133 | 32 | 16 | 3 | 24.0% | 12.2% | 1.9% | 3.98 | 3.13 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 53 | 27 | 7 | 21.7% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 51 | 26 | 7 | 21.6% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 54 | — | 54 | 226 | 48 | 25 | 7 | 21.4% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 46 | 24 | 7 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.74 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 43 | 23 | 7 | 20.8% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 39 | 22 | 6 | 20.4% | 11.6% | 3.3% | 4.96 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 36 | 21 | 6 | 20.0% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 5.09 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 123 | 53 | 334 | 1410 | 275 | 135 | 46 | 19.5% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 3.83 | 4.45 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 32 | 200 | 844 | 165 | 81 | 28 | 19.5% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 3.83 | 4.45 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jayden Murray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 2.7% | — | 4.65 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 167 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 80 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 78 |
| Joe Colón J R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 77 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 76 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.46 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 4.7% | .240 | 4.76 | 16.2% | 2.5% | 92 | -0.70 | 3.58 | 291 | 76 |
| Hunter Strickland R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.23 | 18.4% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .271 | 4.41 | 22.0% | 13.3% | 83 | +0.18 | 2.30 | 511 | 76 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 75 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 75 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.23 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .261 | 3.16 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 143 | -1.07 | 2.29 | 332 | 75 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 74 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 74 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 74 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 74 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 74 |
| Michael Dimock R 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.39 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 166 | 74 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 73 |
| Jacob Barnes R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.11 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 4.7% | .303 | 3.52 | 23.1% | 15.1% | 101 | -1.59 | 1.76 | 551 | 73 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 73 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 73 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.