Jeff Hoffman — OGILVIE

Jeff Hoffman P Minnesota Twins

Age 33 RHP 6'5" / 235 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9183vR 75

ERA3.02

FIP3.18

K%33.5%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%25.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7796.4

Whiff%

p9037.5%

p9035.0%

xwOBA vs

p780.285

SL (44%)

SI (4%)

CH-1.2 (20%)

FB-3.1 (35%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	104	415	75	26	7	100%	5.2	14.3%	7.1%	7.2%	1.9%	3.03	3.84	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	104	415	75	26	7	100%	5.2	18.1%	6.3%	11.8%	1.7%	3.03	3.28	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	150	659	146	60	18	93%	5.0	19.9%	9.4%	10.5%	2.5%	4.20	3.97	+1.7
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	28	150	659	146	60	18	93%	5.0	22.2%	9.1%	13.1%	2.7%	4.20	3.91	+1.8
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	26	149	659	129	58	18	79%	4.5	18.7%	8.9%	9.8%	2.4%	5.50	3.99	+1.6
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	26	149	659	129	58	18	79%	4.5	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	2.7%	5.50	4.11	+1.4
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	23	117	509	109	53	9	82%	4.2	19.9%	10.9%	9.0%	1.9%	5.29	3.84	+1.5
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	23	117	509	109	53	9	82%	4.2	21.4%	10.4%	11.0%	1.8%	5.29	3.59	+1.8
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	31	155	709	166	61	40	97%	4.9	21.8%	8.8%	12.9%	5.2%	7.18	5.25	-0.6
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	31	155	709	166	61	40	97%	4.9	23.4%	8.6%	14.8%	5.6%	7.18	5.49	-1.0
2020	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	16	0	21	104	20	8	3	0%	1.3	19.2%	7.7%	11.5%	2.6%	9.28	3.85	+0.2
2020	27	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	16	0	21	104	20	8	3	0%	1.3	19.2%	7.7%	11.5%	2.9%	9.28	4.18	+0.1
2021	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	16	91	411	104	48	17	44%	2.5	24.4%	11.9%	12.5%	3.3%	4.34	4.37	+0.2
2021	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	16	91	411	104	48	17	44%	2.5	25.3%	11.7%	13.6%	4.1%	4.34	4.82	-0.3
2022	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	35	1	45	197	45	22	5	3%	1.3	22.8%	11.2%	11.7%	2.4%	3.83	3.88	+0.4
2022	29	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	35	1	45	197	45	22	5	3%	1.3	22.8%	11.2%	11.7%	2.5%	3.83	4.02	+0.3
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	61	247	85	25	4	0%	1.0	33.2%	8.7%	24.5%	1.3%	3.08	2.13	+1.8
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	61	247	85	25	4	0%	1.0	33.2%	8.7%	24.5%	1.3%	3.08	2.13	+1.8
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	61	247	85	25	4	0%	1.0	34.4%	10.1%	24.3%	1.6%	3.08	2.40	+1.6
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	68	0	66	265	89	15	6	0%	1.0	33.6%	5.7%	27.9%	2.1%	2.17	2.14	+1.9
2024	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	68	0	66	265	89	15	6	0%	1.0	33.6%	5.7%	27.9%	2.1%	2.17	2.14	+1.9
2024	31	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	68	0	66	265	89	15	6	0%	1.0	33.6%	5.7%	27.9%	2.3%	2.17	2.27	+1.8
2025	32	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	71	0	68	287	84	26	15	0%	1.0	29.3%	9.1%	20.2%	5.2%	4.37	4.64	-0.1
2025	32	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	71	0	68	287	84	26	15	0%	1.0	29.3%	9.1%	20.2%	5.2%	4.37	4.64	-0.1
2025	32	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	71	0	68	287	84	26	15	0%	1.0	29.3%	9.1%	20.2%	5.2%	4.37	4.64	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			393	50	597	2616	659	246	91	13%	1.5	25.2%	9.4%	15.8%	3.5%	4.65	4.11	+3.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	66	0	62	274	96	22	4	0%	0.9	35.0%	8.0%	27.0%	1.5%	3.65	1.96	+1.9
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	66	0	62	274	96	22	4	0%	0.9	35.0%	8.0%	27.0%	1.5%	3.65	1.96	+1.9
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	MLB RAW	MIN	66	0	62	274	96	22	4	0%	0.9	35.0%	8.0%	27.0%	1.5%	3.65	1.96	+1.9
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	MIN	66	0	62	274	96	22	4	0%	0.9	35.0%	8.0%	27.0%	1.5%	3.65	1.96	+1.9
ROS	33	MLB MLE	MIN	5	0	5	23	8	2	1	0%	1.1	33.5%	8.2%	25.3%	3.4%	3.02	3.18	+0.1
ROS	33	MLB CTX	MIN	5	0	5	21	7	2	1	0%	1.0	33.5%	8.2%	25.3%	3.4%	3.03	3.19	+0.1
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	67	297	104	24	5	—	—	34.9%	8.0%	26.9%	1.6%	3.60	2.05	+2.3
FULL	33	MLB A+C	MIN	—	—	67	283	104	24	5	—	—	36.6%	8.4%	28.2%	1.7%	3.60	2.00	+2.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	MIN	51	0	54	228	74	20	7	0%	1.1	32.3%	8.7%	23.6%	3.2%	3.41	3.60	+0.6
2028	35	MLB MLE	MIN	46	0	48	205	64	19	7	0%	1.1	31.3%	9.2%	22.1%	3.5%	3.72	3.93	+0.4
2029	36	MLB MLE	MIN	41	0	43	181	55	18	7	0%	1.0	30.3%	9.8%	20.5%	3.9%	4.07	4.30	+0.1
2027	34	MLB CTX	MIN	51	0	54	228	74	20	7	0%	1.1	32.3%	8.7%	23.6%	3.2%	3.42	3.61	+0.6
2028	35	MLB CTX	MIN	46	0	48	203	63	19	7	0%	1.0	31.3%	9.2%	22.1%	3.5%	3.73	3.94	+0.4
2029	36	MLB CTX	MIN	41	0	43	182	55	18	7	0%	1.0	30.3%	9.8%	20.5%	3.9%	4.08	4.31	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		537	50	747	3253	859	304	113	9%	1.4	26.4%	9.4%	17.1%	3.5%	4.45	3.97	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		144	13	200	870	230	81	30	9%	1.4	26.4%	9.4%	17.1%	3.5%	4.45	3.97	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		498	145	1090	4736	1085	432	136	29%	2.2	22.9%	9.1%	13.8%	2.9%	4.70	3.89	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	27	200	869	199	79	25	29%	2.2	22.9%	9.1%	13.8%	2.9%	4.70	3.89	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jeff Hoffman (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.88	31.4%	8.3%	3.7%	—	3.92	31.4%	22.2%	145	+0.04	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	33	SU	3.65	27.3%	7.3%	3.5%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	316	69
C.C. Lee R 2018 · 3.03 FIP	31	SU	3.03	34.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	121	65
Adam Ottavino R 2019 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	31.1%	13.1%	1.7%	.275	2.98	28.4%	19.5%	146	-0.06	2.10	488	65
David Hernandez R 2018 · 2.94 FIP	33	SU	2.94	25.6%	6.3%	2.2%	.240	3.72	26.8%	18.2%	43	+0.78	2.60	268	65
David Robertson R 2018 · 2.78 FIP	33	SU	2.78	32.2%	8.8%	2.3%	.244	3.67	32.0%	24.0%	12	+0.89	2.00	494	65
Brandon Morrow R 2017 · 2.67 FIP	33	SU	2.67	26.5%	5.1%	2.1%	.297	2.82	25.4%	18.0%	31	+0.15	2.67	186	64
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	63
Tyler Clippard R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	33	SU	4.11	29.8%	8.1%	4.6%	.268	3.41	24.9%	18.5%	113	-0.70	2.49	417	60
Pedro Strop R 2018 · 2.99 FIP	33	SU	2.99	23.7%	7.5%	1.7%	.211	4.05	27.5%	16.8%	42	+1.06	2.56	277	60
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	59
Neftalí Feliz R 2021 · 3.61 FIP	33	SU	3.61	33.6%	9.9%	3.8%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.54	291	59
Chris Martin R 2019 · 3.14 FIP	33	SU	3.14	30.1%	2.3%	4.2%	.314	2.35	27.1%	24.7%	117	-0.79	1.76	416	59
Daniel Bard R 2020 · 2.82 FIP	35	SU	2.82	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.63	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.81	2.56	200	57
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	5.01	20.8%	10.0%	88	+1.97	2.79	239	57
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	57
Blake Parker R 2018 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	25.4%	6.5%	4.3%	.290	4.12	24.9%	16.5%	121	+0.00	2.52	339	57
Scott McGough R 2023 · 4.57 FIP	33	SU	4.57	28.6%	9.3%	4.9%	.266	4.26	18.9%	9.0%	126	-0.31	3.55	429	57
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	56
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	56
Ryan Madson R 2015 · 2.99 FIP	34	SU	2.99	23.4%	5.2%	2.2%	.244	2.96	23.9%	18.7%	176	-0.03	1.42	240	56

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	51	31.4%	8.9%	1.37	3.71
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Keone Kela ('19)	1.1	43	30.1%	9.4%	0.92	3.23
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46