Jeff Hoffman — OGILVIE

Jeff Hoffman P Toronto Blue Jays

+0.8 WAR

Age 33 RHP 6'5" / 235 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.8 · 2026

ERA3.58

FIP3.92

xFIP1.67

SIERA1.91

K%29.4%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%21.2%

IP59

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2026

K†7070

FB Velo

p7996.6

Whiff%

p9046.1%

p9042.1%

xwOBA vs

p700.293

SL (27%)

SI (7%)

CH-1.2 (26%)

FB-3.1 (47%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	22	AA	New Britain Rock Cats	20	20	104	415	75	26	7	14.3%	7.1%	1.9%	3.03	3.86	+1.7
2016	23	MLB	Colorado Rockies	30	28	150	659	146	60	18	19.9%	9.4%	2.6%	4.20	4.05	+2.1
2017	24	MLB	Colorado Rockies	33	26	149	659	129	58	18	18.7%	8.9%	2.4%	5.50	3.97	+2.2
2018	25	MLB	Colorado Rockies	28	23	117	509	109	53	9	19.9%	10.9%	2.0%	5.29	3.89	+1.9
2019	26	MLB	Colorado Rockies	32	31	155	709	166	61	40	21.8%	8.8%	5.0%	7.18	5.15	+0.3
2020	27	MLB	Colorado Rockies	16	0	21	104	20	8	3	19.2%	7.7%	2.7%	9.28	3.91	+0.3
2021	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	36	16	91	411	104	48	17	24.4%	11.9%	3.3%	4.34	4.37	+0.9
2022	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	35	1	45	197	45	22	5	22.8%	11.2%	2.5%	3.83	3.95	+0.5
2023	30	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	63	0	61	247	85	25	4	33.2%	8.7%	1.3%	3.08	2.12	+2.0
2024	31	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	68	0	66	265	89	15	6	33.6%	5.7%	2.1%	2.17	2.11	+2.2
2025	32	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	71	0	68	287	84	26	15	29.3%	9.1%	4.7%	4.37	4.34	+0.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	33	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	9	0	8	41	18	3	1	—	—	—	4.32	—	—
ROS	33	MLB	CIN	51	—	51	215	67	18	7	31.2%	8.3%	3.4%	3.47	3.77	+0.7
2026 Total	33	MLB	CIN	—	—	59	256	85	21	8	33.3%	8.1%	3.3%	3.59	3.24	+1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	34	MLB	CIN	56	—	56	238	78	20	8	32.7%	8.4%	3.5%	3.50	3.68	+0.8
2028	35	MLB	CIN	53	—	53	224	72	19	8	31.9%	8.6%	3.6%	3.70	3.83	+0.7
2029	36	MLB	CIN	50	—	50	209	65	19	8	31.2%	8.9%	3.7%	3.87	3.99	+0.5
2030	37	MLB	CIN	46	—	46	194	59	18	7	30.4%	9.1%	3.8%	4.05	4.17	+0.4
2031	38	MLB	CIN	42	—	42	179	53	17	7	29.5%	9.4%	4.0%	4.23	4.35	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			441	145	1037	4503	1007	413	131	22.4%	9.2%	2.9%	4.76	3.97	+15.6
/ 200 IP	—			85	28	200	868	194	80	25	22.4%	9.2%	2.9%	4.76	3.97	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jeff Hoffman (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.77	31.2%	8.3%	3.4%	—	3.83	32.0%	23.4%	159	+0.06	—	—	—
Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.6%	.290	3.90	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.40	3.50	219	76
Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.63 FIP	33	SW	3.63	27.3%	7.3%	3.5%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	316	76
Blake Wood R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	31	SW	3.35	25.3%	9.3%	2.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.91	210	75
Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	25.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	102	73
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	33	SW	4.47	26.2%	11.2%	3.9%	.263	3.98	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.49	3.98	104	73
Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP	33	SW	3.61	22.6%	7.1%	2.8%	.335	2.56	25.0%	20.2%	26	-1.05	2.56	144	72
Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.02 FIP	33	SW	3.02	23.7%	7.5%	1.8%	.211	4.10	27.5%	16.8%	42	+1.08	2.58	277	72
Ryan Madson R 2027 · 2.94 FIP	34	SW	2.94	23.4%	5.2%	2.1%	.244	2.97	23.9%	18.7%	176	+0.03	1.43	240	71
David Hernandez R 2026 · 2.86 FIP	33	SW	2.86	25.6%	6.3%	2.1%	.240	3.85	26.8%	18.2%	43	+0.99	2.56	268	71
Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 2.67 FIP	33	SW	2.67	26.5%	5.1%	2.1%	.297	2.85	25.4%	18.0%	31	+0.18	2.67	186	70
Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	33	SW	3.46	25.3%	11.3%	1.9%	.304	3.46	22.4%	12.4%	128	+0.00	3.08	303	69
Carlos Carrasco R 2026 · 3.44 FIP	33	SW	3.44	29.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.288	4.25	20.8%	13.5%	296	+0.81	2.64	1,424	69
Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.12 FIP	33	SU	3.12	22.6%	8.2%	1.6%	.358	4.15	13.7%	6.9%	250	+1.03	3.12	352	68
Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.14 FIP	34	SU	4.14	20.4%	6.4%	3.6%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.32	107	68
Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	33	SU	4.26	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.44	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.82	1.94	112	67
Daniel Bard R 2028 · 2.86 FIP	35	SU	2.86	25.5%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	3.60	25.3%	12.0%	175	+0.74	2.45	200	67
Chad Gaudin R 2026 · 2.66 FIP	33	SU	2.66	22.8%	6.8%	1.1%	.325	3.16	21.8%	13.9%	58	+0.50	2.02	102	67
Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	33	SW	3.38	24.8%	12.0%	1.6%	.356	4.65	23.0%	9.8%	66	+1.27	2.80	410	67
Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	132	66
Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.37 FIP	33	SU	3.37	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.52	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.15	3.37	144	66

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 7.488 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+0.8	$3M	-$8M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+0.8	$3M	-$8M
Totals		$22M		$6M	-$16M