AJ Blubaugh

P Houston Astros

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	28	25	129	3.71	3.61	24.5%	9.2%	—	K 20.8% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.19
2025	25	MIX2 levels	33	22	131	4.40	4.19	23.6%	12.0%	1.9	K 21.2% · BB 11.0% · FIP 4.38
2026	26	MLBHOU	64	0	96	3.66	4.21	23.4%	10.5%	0.4
2027PROJ	27	MLBHOU	57	0	60	4.33	4.70	23.8%	10.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBHOU	40	0	42	4.60	4.79	23.7%	10.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBHOU	30	0	31	4.81	4.95	23.1%	11.2%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo68

K%57

xwOBA vs45

Form6.59 ERA (proj 4.33) · K 16.1% (proj 23.8%) · BB 12.9% (proj 10.8%) ▼▼ last 60d · 14 IP through Oct 27

CompsJ.P. France (age 27) · Roberto Gómez (age 27) · Taylor Grover (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 101

ERA4.33

FIP4.70

K%23.8%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP63

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p6828.1%

p5723.4%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	3	19	77	24	6	0	50%	3.1	27.9%	6.7%	21.2%	0.0%	4.34	1.59	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	3	19	77	24	6	0	50%	3.1	31.2%	7.8%	23.4%	0.0%	4.34	1.49	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	12	100	422	112	45	11	46%	3.8	20.6%	12.2%	8.4%	2.6%	4.41	4.35	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	12	100	422	112	45	11	46%	3.8	26.5%	10.7%	15.9%	2.6%	4.41	3.64	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	129	542	133	50	14	89%	4.6	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	3.2%	3.71	4.19	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	129	542	133	50	14	89%	4.6	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	3.2%	3.71	4.19	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	25	129	542	133	50	14	89%	4.6	24.5%	9.2%	15.3%	2.6%	3.71	3.61	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	22	131	576	136	69	16	67%	4.0	21.2%	11.0%	10.2%	3.1%	4.40	4.38	+1.6
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	22	131	576	136	69	16	67%	4.0	21.2%	11.0%	10.2%	3.1%	4.40	4.38	+1.6
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	22	131	576	136	69	16	67%	4.0	23.6%	12.0%	11.6%	2.8%	4.40	4.19	+1.9
2026	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	64	0	96	401	94	42	13	0%	1.5	23.4%	10.5%	13.0%	3.3%	3.66	4.28	+0.3
2026	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	64	0	96	401	94	42	13	0%	1.5	23.4%	10.5%	13.0%	3.3%	3.66	4.28	+0.3
2026	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	64	0	96	401	94	42	13	0%	1.5	23.4%	10.5%	13.0%	3.2%	3.66	4.21	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			75	3	128	525	129	53	19	4%	1.7	24.6%	10.1%	14.5%	3.6%	3.16	4.26	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	HOU	57	0	60	253	60	27	9	0%	1.1	23.8%	10.8%	13.1%	3.4%	4.33	4.70	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	HOU	43	0	45	189	45	21	7	0%	1.0	23.7%	10.9%	12.8%	3.5%	4.60	4.79	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	HOU	32	0	33	140	32	16	5	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.2%	12.0%	3.7%	4.81	4.95	-0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	HOU	23	0	25	104	23	12	4	0%	1.1	22.4%	11.5%	10.9%	3.9%	5.02	5.15	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	HOU	40	0	42	177	42	19	6	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.9%	12.8%	3.5%	4.60	4.79	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	HOU	30	0	31	131	30	15	5	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.2%	12.0%	3.7%	4.81	4.95	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	HOU	22	0	23	97	22	11	4	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.5%	10.9%	3.9%	5.02	5.15	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	3	225	936	224	99	34	2%	1.3	24.0%	10.6%	13.4%	3.6%	3.86	4.40	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		149	3	200	831	199	88	30	2%	1.3	24.0%	10.6%	13.4%	3.6%	3.86	4.40	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		157	62	474	2018	437	208	60	39%	3.0	21.7%	10.3%	11.4%	3.0%	4.06	4.20	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	26	200	851	184	88	25	39%	3.0	21.7%	10.3%	11.4%	3.0%	4.06	4.20	-0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 99 IPFIP 4.05 → 4.33 (+0.28)K% 22.3% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.35%	—	×0.860	19.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.83%	—	×0.900	11.55%
HR / BF /BF	2.21%	÷0.961	×1.100	2.53%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 4.05 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 125 IPFIP 3.71 → 4.19 (+0.48)K% 24.2% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.24%	—	×0.860	20.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.47%	—	×0.900	8.52%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷0.903	×1.100	3.23%

Result: FIP 3.71 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Asheville Tourists · 86 IPFIP 3.73 → 4.44 (+0.72)K% 25.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.07%	—	×0.770	19.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.97%	—	×1.150	11.47%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.218	×1.250	2.77%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 144).

Result: FIP 3.73 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 14 IPFIP 3.02 → 3.71 (+0.70)K% 37.3% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.25%	—	×0.810	30.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.69%	—	×1.100	17.25%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷1.322	×1.200	1.78%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 164).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 13 IPFIP 0.63 → 1.59 (+0.96)K% 37.7% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.74%	—	×0.740	27.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.66%	—	×1.180	6.68%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.949	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 0.63 → 1.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Astros Blue · 6 IPFIP 3.28 → 4.12 (+0.85)K% 16.7% → 11.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.680	11.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.250	15.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.058	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
AJ Blubaugh (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.93	23.2%	12.1%	102	+0.23	—	—	—
J.P. France R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	27	SW	4.44	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.47	18.6%	9.0%	205	+0.03	4.04	577	74
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	74
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	73
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	72
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	71
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	71
TJ Shook R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	26	SW	4.15	23.7%	8.7%	3.5%	.317	3.92	20.0%	11.1%	107	-0.23	3.35	452	71
Paxton Schultz R 2024 · 3.83 FIP	26	SW	3.83	24.4%	9.8%	2.8%	.306	4.15	22.5%	15.1%	135	+0.32	3.83	543	71
Britt Reames R 2001 · 4.77 FIP	27	SW	4.77	19.9%	10.4%	3.7%	.298	3.76	24.7%	14.3%	68	-1.01	3.76	204	70
Tristan Beck R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	27	SW	4.70	19.3%	6.8%	4.3%	.271	3.74	19.9%	12.2%	176	-0.96	3.48	501	69
Andre Jackson R 2023 · 4.69 FIP	27	SW	4.69	22.6%	10.2%	4.0%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	459	69
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	69
Jorge Sosa R 2004 · 4.86 FIP	27	SW	4.86	21.0%	11.4%	3.8%	.291	4.70	14.4%	6.3%	365	-0.16	4.06	773	69
Hayden Wesneski R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	26	SW	4.17	23.3%	7.3%	3.8%	.259	3.77	20.7%	14.1%	106	-0.40	3.31	561	68
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	68
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	68
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	68
Cory Abbott R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	27	SW	4.88	23.5%	11.9%	4.1%	.300	5.04	22.1%	12.8%	151	+0.16	3.86	703	67
Joaquín Benoit R 2004 · 4.49 FIP	27	SP-	4.49	20.8%	6.8%	4.2%	.302	3.31	23.7%	14.5%	249	-1.18	1.99	1,064	67
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	49	23.9%	10.6%	1.38	3.97
Dominic Leone ('24)	2.1	54	23.9%	10.4%	1.26	3.94
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
Chasen Shreve ('24)	1.8	45	25.2%	10.8%	1.54	3.96
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*