AJ Blubaugh
P
Houston Astros
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
MLB
2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 91 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 95
ERA3.93
FIP4.33
K%23.2%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%11.4%
ROS IP91
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 151 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6595.6
Whiff%
p6427.5%
K%
p5823.6%
xwOBA vs
p500.312
CH+0.7 (21%)
CT (5%)
CU (1%)
SL (21%)
FB-2.0 (51%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 3 | 19 | 77 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 50% | 3.1 | 27.9% | 6.7% | 21.2% | 0.0% | 4.34 | 1.59 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 3 | 19 | 77 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 50% | 3.1 | 31.2% | 7.8% | 23.4% | 0.0% | 4.34 | 1.49 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 12 | 100 | 422 | 112 | 45 | 11 | 46% | 3.8 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 4.41 | 4.13 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 12 | 100 | 422 | 112 | 45 | 11 | 46% | 3.8 | 26.5% | 10.7% | 15.9% | 2.6% | 4.41 | 3.64 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 25 | 129 | 542 | 133 | 50 | 14 | 89% | 4.6 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 3.71 | 4.54 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 25 | 129 | 542 | 133 | 50 | 14 | 89% | 4.6 | 24.5% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 2.6% | 3.71 | 3.61 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 22 | 131 | 576 | 136 | 69 | 16 | 67% | 4.0 | 21.5% | 12.5% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.54 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 22 | 131 | 576 | 136 | 69 | 16 | 67% | 4.0 | 23.6% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.19 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 36 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 60 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.7 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 3.75 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | HOU | 87 | 0 | 91 | 384 | 89 | 45 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 3.93 | 4.33 | +0.9 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | HOU | 87 | 0 | 91 | 384 | 89 | 45 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 3.93 | 4.33 | +0.9 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 151 | 638 | 149 | 75 | 19 | — | — | 23.4% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 3.86 | 4.24 | +2.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 151 | 638 | 149 | 75 | 19 | — | — | 23.4% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 3.86 | 4.24 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 145 | 0 | 153 | 645 | 148 | 74 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.71 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 145 | 0 | 153 | 645 | 147 | 73 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.76 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 139 | 0 | 146 | 616 | 136 | 70 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.89 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 138 | 0 | 145 | 612 | 141 | 70 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.71 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 138 | 0 | 145 | 612 | 140 | 69 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.76 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 132 | 0 | 139 | 587 | 130 | 67 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.89 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 542 | 3 | 612 | 2572 | 594 | 292 | 83 | 1% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.37 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 177 | 1 | 200 | 841 | 194 | 95 | 27 | 1% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 129 | 62 | 438 | 1871 | 408 | 212 | 54 | 48% | 3.4 | 21.8% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.27 | +5.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 28 | 200 | 854 | 186 | 97 | 24 | 48% | 3.4 | 21.8% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.27 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| AJ Blubaugh (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 22.7% | 11.8% | 3.3% | — | 4.79 | 22.7% | 11.3% | 451 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 74 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 74 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 73 |
| Noah Bremer R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 70 |
| Sean Isaac R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.25 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 155 | 70 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 69 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 69 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 69 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 69 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.50 | 23.0% | 11.9% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.53 | 13.7% | 3.1% | 41 | +0.03 | 4.50 | 119 | 69 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 69 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.63 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 4.4% | .317 | 3.95 | 22.5% | 14.7% | 87 | -0.68 | 3.36 | 432 | 69 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.65 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .319 | 4.96 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 242 | +0.31 | 4.39 | 353 | 69 |
| Chris Vallimont R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.10 | 19.9% | 12.7% | 3.8% | .286 | 6.57 | 13.8% | 1.0% | 63 | +1.47 | 3.13 | 472 | 69 |
| Layne Somsen R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 1.3% | .265 | 4.04 | 19.9% | 6.7% | 92 | +0.32 | 3.67 | 154 | 69 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.71 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.44 | 3.27 | 339 | 68 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 68 |
| Jake Lyons R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.31 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 174 | 68 |
| Dylan King R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.28 | 26.7% | 9.8% | 4.0% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 121 | 68 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 151 | 22.7% | 11.5% | 1.25 | 4.60 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |