AJ Blubaugh — OGILVIE

AJ Blubaugh P Houston Astros

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION90 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 94

ERA3.85

FIP4.20

K%23.2%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL4550

CMD4545

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p7228.7%

p6024.0%

xwOBA vs

p490.313

CH+0.7 (21%)

CT (5%)

SL (22%)

FB-2.0 (51%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	3	19	77	24	6	0	50%	3.1	27.9%	6.7%	21.2%	0.0%	4.34	1.59	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	3	19	77	24	6	0	50%	3.1	31.2%	7.8%	23.4%	0.0%	4.34	1.49	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	12	100	422	112	45	11	46%	3.8	20.6%	12.2%	8.4%	2.6%	4.41	4.35	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	12	100	422	112	45	11	46%	3.8	20.6%	12.2%	8.4%	2.6%	4.41	4.35	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	12	100	422	112	45	11	46%	3.8	26.5%	10.7%	15.9%	2.6%	4.41	3.64	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	129	542	133	50	14	89%	4.6	20.1%	8.5%	11.6%	3.2%	3.71	4.25	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	129	542	133	50	14	89%	4.6	20.1%	8.5%	11.6%	3.2%	3.71	4.25	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	25	129	542	133	50	14	89%	4.6	24.5%	9.2%	15.3%	2.6%	3.71	3.61	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	22	131	576	136	69	16	67%	4.0	20.6%	11.0%	9.7%	3.1%	4.40	4.43	+0.7
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	22	131	576	136	69	16	67%	4.0	20.6%	11.0%	9.7%	3.1%	4.40	4.43	+0.7
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	22	131	576	136	69	16	67%	4.0	23.6%	12.0%	11.6%	2.8%	4.40	4.19	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			69	3	122	499	125	49	18	4%	1.8	25.1%	9.8%	15.2%	3.6%	2.88	4.17	+0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	58	0	90	375	90	38	12	0%	1.6	24.0%	10.1%	13.9%	3.3%	3.30	4.16	+0.4
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	58	0	90	375	90	38	12	0%	1.6	24.0%	10.1%	13.9%	3.3%	3.30	4.16	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	MLB RAW	HOU	58	0	90	375	90	38	12	0%	1.6	24.0%	10.1%	13.9%	3.2%	3.30	4.11	+0.5
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	HOU	58	0	90	375	90	38	12	0%	1.6	24.0%	10.1%	13.9%	3.2%	3.30	4.11	+0.5
ROS	26	MLB MLE	HOU	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.3%	13.0%	3.2%	3.85	4.20	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	HOU	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.3%	13.0%	3.2%	3.85	4.20	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	96	400	96	41	13	—	—	24.0%	10.1%	13.8%	3.2%	3.33	4.17	+0.8
FULL	26	MLB A+C	HOU	—	—	96	405	96	41	13	—	—	23.7%	10.0%	13.6%	3.2%	3.33	4.11	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	HOU	145	0	153	645	148	67	21	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.3%	12.7%	3.2%	4.48	4.63	-0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	HOU	145	0	153	645	148	68	22	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.5%	12.4%	3.4%	4.62	4.72	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	HOU	139	0	146	616	137	66	22	0%	1.0	22.3%	10.7%	11.6%	3.5%	4.77	4.88	-0.5
2030	30	MLB MLE	HOU	131	0	137	579	125	64	21	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.0%	10.6%	3.7%	4.96	5.08	-0.8
2027	27	MLB CTX	HOU	138	0	145	612	141	63	20	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.3%	12.7%	3.2%	4.48	4.63	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	HOU	138	0	145	612	140	64	21	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.5%	12.4%	3.4%	4.62	4.72	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	HOU	132	0	139	587	131	63	21	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.7%	11.6%	3.5%	4.77	4.88	-0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	HOU	124	0	130	549	119	60	20	0%	1.0	21.6%	11.0%	10.6%	3.7%	4.96	5.08	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		607	3	687	2883	661	303	100	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.5%	12.4%	3.5%	4.37	4.40	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		177	1	200	840	193	88	29	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.5%	12.4%	3.5%	4.37	4.40	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		151	62	468	1992	426	204	59	41%	3.1	21.4%	10.2%	11.2%	2.9%	4.00	4.20	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	26	200	851	182	87	25	41%	3.1	21.4%	10.2%	11.2%	2.9%	4.00	4.20	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
AJ Blubaugh (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	21.8%	10.4%	3.2%	—	4.74	22.7%	12.2%	451	+0.02	—	—	—
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	75
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	74
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	74
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	73
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	73
Dylan King R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	25	SW	3.78	26.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	121	72
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	71
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	71
Orlando Rodriguez R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	26	SW	4.40	23.0%	11.9%	3.1%	.278	4.67	13.7%	3.1%	41	+0.27	4.40	119	71
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	70
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	70
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	70
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	70
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	70
Joshua Loeschorn R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	23	SU	3.86	24.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.272	4.43	17.1%	8.4%	83	+0.57	3.08	151	70
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	69
Jake Lyons R 2023 · 4.13 FIP	24	SW	4.13	20.1%	8.5%	3.0%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	174	69
Madison Younginer IV R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	26	SU	4.22	23.0%	9.8%	3.3%	.370	4.73	14.0%	-5.3%	27	+0.51	3.08	219	69
Spencer Stockton R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	20.2%	10.3%	2.7%	.276	5.46	18.7%	6.2%	63	+1.28	1.93	233	69
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	148	22.3%	10.6%	1.31	4.63
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94