AJ Blubaugh
P
Houston Astros
+0.7
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA3.52
FIP4.75
xFIP5.49
SIERA4.85
K%22.1%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%11.0%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p6795.7
Whiff%
p6928.3%
K%
p3119.4%
xwOBA vs
p490.313
CH+0.7 (26%)
CT (5%)
CU (2%)
SL (22%)
FB-2.0 (45%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 6 | 3 | 19 | 77 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 27.9% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 4.34 | 1.59 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 26 | 12 | 100 | 422 | 112 | 45 | 11 | 20.6% | 12.2% | 2.6% | 4.41 | 4.31 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 28 | 25 | 129 | 542 | 133 | 50 | 14 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 3.71 | 4.35 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 25 | MLB | Houston Astros | 33 | 22 | 131 | 576 | 136 | 69 | 16 | 21.5% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.55 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Houston Astros | 8 | 0 | 13 | 60 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 16.7% | 13.3% | 5.0% | 7.82 | 6.13 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | HOU | 20 | 20 | 107 | 453 | 98 | 52 | 16 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 3.29 | 4.62 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 120 | 513 | 108 | 60 | 19 | 21.1% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 3.76 | 4.78 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 22 | 22 | 123 | 520 | 113 | 58 | 18 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 4.42 | 4.95 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 113 | 57 | 18 | 21.6% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.93 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 22 | 22 | 120 | 509 | 108 | 55 | 18 | 21.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.97 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 102 | 53 | 17 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.95 | 5.04 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 21 | 21 | 113 | 476 | 96 | 52 | 17 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 5.07 | 5.14 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 89 | 51 | 17 | 19.4% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 5.18 | 5.26 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 19 | 103 | 437 | 82 | 49 | 16 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 3.8% | 5.30 | 5.39 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 75 | 48 | 16 | 18.1% | 11.5% | 3.9% | 5.44 | 5.53 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 68 | 46 | 16 | 17.3% | 11.7% | 4.0% | 5.58 | 5.68 | -0.5 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 61 | 44 | 15 | 16.6% | 12.0% | 4.1% | 5.74 | 5.84 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 101 | 62 | 391 | 1677 | 358 | 190 | 49 | 21.3% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.35 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 32 | 200 | 858 | 183 | 97 | 25 | 21.3% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.35 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| AJ Blubaugh (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 23.1% | 11.1% | 3.3% | — | 4.95 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 367 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Hansel Robles R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.03 | 22.1% | 11.6% | 4.2% | .267 | 3.59 | 25.5% | 17.6% | 145 | -1.44 | 2.71 | 469 | 76 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 74 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 74 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .285 | 4.91 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.25 | 3.81 | 420 | 74 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 73 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .285 | 5.94 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.20 | 4.42 | 239 | 73 |
| David Lebron R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .336 | 5.70 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +1.40 | 4.30 | 144 | 73 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 72 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .280 | 3.12 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.76 | 3.12 | 178 | 72 |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.81 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.19 | 308 | 71 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 71 |
| Michael Lorenzen R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 1.5% | .286 | 3.54 | 23.0% | 13.7% | 146 | -0.24 | 3.19 | 1,070 | 71 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 71 |
| Chris Vallimont R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.17 | 19.9% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .286 | 7.41 | 14.5% | 0.3% | 42 | +2.24 | 3.22 | 451 | 71 |
| Kevin McGowan R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.87 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 3.8% | .322 | 5.44 | 15.4% | 4.7% | 64 | +0.57 | 2.94 | 426 | 71 |
| Chance Kirby R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.77 | 15.1% | 10.0% | 4.9% | .242 | 4.61 | 18.5% | 11.2% | 138 | -1.16 | 4.16 | 325 | 71 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 71 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.35 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .285 | 4.28 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | -0.07 | 4.28 | 448 | 71 |
| Adam Quintana R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.72 | 201 | 70 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.17 | 16.8% | 9.1% | 4.3% | .264 | 5.83 | 14.9% | 5.8% | 124 | +0.66 | 5.17 | 322 | 70 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.221 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $6M | $11M | +$6M | ||