Hayden Birdsong
P
San Francisco Giants
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 24
RHP
6'5" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2027
ERA4.93
FIP5.04
xFIP5.00
SIERA4.62
K%23.9%
BB%12.7%
K-BB%11.2%
IP68
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2027
STUF5555
CTRL3030
CMD4545
K†6060
FB Velo
p6495.5
Whiff%
p7028.4%
K%
p5322.8%
xwOBA vs
p310.334
CH+0.5 (17%)
CU (15%)
FB-0.7 (44%)
SL-5.3 (26%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | A | San Jose Giants | 7 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 23 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.09 | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 28 | 25 | 101 | 427 | 149 | 44 | 6 | 26.7% | 11.9% | 1.7% | 3.31 | 3.30 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 22 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 29 | 29 | 129 | 556 | 163 | 69 | 17 | 26.7% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 3.76 | 4.37 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 31 | 20 | 105 | 493 | 115 | 67 | 19 | 22.2% | 13.9% | 4.1% | 5.33 | 5.26 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | SF | 20 | — | 20 | 86 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 25.8% | 13.6% | 3.6% | 5.07 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 76 | 37 | 10 | 26.2% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 76 | 37 | 10 | 26.4% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 76 | 37 | 10 | 26.4% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 4.86 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 75 | 36 | 10 | 26.4% | 12.8% | 3.7% | 4.87 | 4.87 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 72 | 36 | 10 | 25.9% | 12.8% | 3.7% | 4.92 | 4.95 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 68 | 35 | 10 | 25.3% | 12.9% | 3.8% | 4.99 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 64 | 34 | 10 | 24.8% | 13.1% | 3.8% | 5.08 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | SF | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 60 | 33 | 10 | 24.1% | 13.2% | 3.9% | 5.19 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | SF | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 56 | 32 | 9 | 23.5% | 13.4% | 4.0% | 5.31 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | SF | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 51 | 31 | 9 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 4.1% | 5.44 | 5.53 | -0.4 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | SF | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 47 | 29 | 9 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 4.2% | 5.58 | 5.68 | -0.4 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | SF | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 42 | 28 | 9 | 21.2% | 14.1% | 4.3% | 5.74 | 5.84 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 95 | 74 | 346 | 1524 | 395 | 192 | 47 | 25.9% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.08 | 4.22 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 43 | 200 | 880 | 228 | 111 | 27 | 25.9% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.08 | 4.22 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hayden Birdsong (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 25.8% | 13.6% | 3.6% | — | 4.85 | 26.3% | 13.6% | 205 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Nick Mears R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.57 | 23.8% | 11.3% | 3.7% | .301 | 3.48 | 27.7% | 14.2% | 125 | -1.09 | 3.06 | 254 | 78 |
| Nick Robertson R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.38 | 23.4% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.19 | 23.2% | 12.6% | 167 | -0.19 | 3.43 | 281 | 78 |
| Logan VanWey R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.41 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.8% | .301 | 4.39 | 26.1% | 10.7% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 143 | 76 |
| J.B. Wendelken R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.49 | 24.6% | 12.2% | 3.5% | .356 | 3.64 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 137 | -0.85 | 3.02 | 393 | 76 |
| Manny Barreda R 2028 · 5.08 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.08 | 21.2% | 14.7% | 3.5% | .286 | 3.67 | 19.6% | 9.5% | 186 | -1.41 | 3.25 | 376 | 75 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.92 | 26.4% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .278 | 5.61 | 20.3% | 5.0% | 58 | +0.69 | 4.92 | 103 | 75 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 3.00 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 70 | -1.56 | 2.12 | 117 | 75 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.63 | 26.2% | 12.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.67 | 22.3% | 11.4% | 86 | +0.04 | 4.41 | 152 | 75 |
| Colin McKee R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.04 | 24.2% | 14.7% | 3.9% | .330 | 4.35 | 27.7% | 12.9% | 97 | -0.69 | 4.16 | 148 | 75 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 75 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.17 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .284 | 2.58 | 30.9% | 21.0% | 165 | -1.59 | 1.53 | 433 | 74 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.86 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .314 | 4.51 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.35 | 4.05 | 164 | 74 |
| Jason Adam R 2028 · 5.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.11 | 25.9% | 11.0% | 5.1% | .241 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 18.8% | 60 | -1.80 | 2.40 | 362 | 74 |
| Steven Wilson R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .271 | 3.68 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.34 | 3.61 | 311 | 74 |
| Justin Sterner R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 23.9% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.63 | 26.6% | 17.2% | 142 | -0.18 | 3.97 | 252 | 74 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 3.9% | .296 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.14 | 2.78 | 181 | 74 |
| Peyton Gray R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 73 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 73 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.51 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .293 | 7.98 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.47 | 4.42 | 155 | 73 |
| Porter Hodge R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.11 | 28.1% | 14.6% | 4.6% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 349 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.