Hayden Birdsong — OGILVIE

Hayden Birdsong P San Francisco Giants

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.9 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA5.01

FIP5.11

K%25.1%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p7028.4%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

CH+0.5 (17%)

CU (15%)

FB-0.7 (44%)

SL-5.3 (26%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.238 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-2	$4M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-3	$5M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.1M		$-1M	-$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	12	48	23	3	0	0%	1.7	47.9%	6.2%	41.7%	0.0%	3.09	-0.15	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	12	48	23	3	0	0%	1.7	47.9%	6.2%	41.7%	0.0%	3.09	-0.07	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	25	101	427	149	44	6	89%	3.6	26.7%	11.9%	14.8%	1.7%	3.31	3.29	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	25	101	427	149	44	6	89%	3.6	26.7%	11.9%	14.8%	1.7%	3.31	3.29	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	25	101	427	149	44	6	89%	3.6	34.9%	10.3%	24.6%	1.4%	3.31	2.23	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	29	129	556	163	69	17	100%	4.5	26.7%	12.6%	14.1%	3.4%	3.76	4.32	+0.9
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	29	129	556	163	69	17	100%	4.5	26.7%	12.6%	14.1%	3.4%	3.76	4.32	+0.9
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	29	129	556	163	69	17	100%	4.5	29.3%	12.4%	16.9%	3.1%	3.76	3.89	+1.6
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	20	105	493	115	67	19	65%	3.4	21.7%	13.0%	8.7%	4.3%	5.33	5.29	-0.5
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	20	105	493	115	67	19	65%	3.4	21.7%	13.0%	8.7%	4.3%	5.33	5.29	-0.5
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	20	105	493	115	67	19	65%	3.4	23.3%	13.6%	9.7%	3.9%	5.33	5.18	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			37	26	138	613	156	80	21	70%	3.7	25.4%	13.1%	12.4%	3.4%	4.77	4.56	+0.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	SF	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	25.1%	13.7%	11.4%	3.7%	5.01	5.11	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SF	23	23	136	574	146	73	21	100%	5.9	25.5%	12.8%	12.8%	3.7%	4.98	4.95	-0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	25	25	148	624	160	79	23	100%	5.9	25.7%	12.7%	13.0%	3.7%	4.95	4.93	-0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	25	25	150	632	162	81	23	100%	6.0	25.7%	12.8%	12.9%	3.7%	4.96	4.97	-0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	25	25	150	632	162	82	24	100%	6.0	25.6%	12.9%	12.6%	3.8%	5.02	5.05	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	24	24	143	604	151	79	24	100%	6.0	25.0%	13.2%	11.8%	4.0%	5.14	5.21	-0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	22	22	134	567	138	76	24	100%	6.1	24.3%	13.5%	10.8%	4.2%	5.31	5.42	-0.8
2027	25	MLB CTX	SF	22	22	129	545	139	69	18	100%	5.9	25.5%	12.8%	12.8%	3.4%	4.83	4.80	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	24	24	141	595	153	76	20	100%	5.9	25.7%	12.7%	13.0%	3.4%	4.80	4.78	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	24	24	142	600	154	77	21	100%	5.9	25.7%	12.8%	12.9%	3.4%	4.81	4.82	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	24	24	142	600	153	78	21	100%	5.9	25.6%	12.9%	12.6%	3.5%	4.86	4.89	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	23	23	136	574	143	76	21	100%	5.9	25.0%	13.2%	11.8%	3.7%	4.98	5.05	-0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	21	21	128	540	131	73	21	100%	6.1	24.3%	13.5%	10.8%	3.9%	5.14	5.25	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		174	163	955	4065	1029	527	143	94%	5.5	25.3%	13.0%	12.4%	3.5%	4.88	4.54	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	851	215	110	30	94%	5.5	25.3%	13.0%	12.4%	3.5%	4.88	4.54	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		95	74	346	1524	393	188	48	78%	3.6	25.8%	12.3%	13.4%	3.1%	4.08	4.20	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	43	200	880	227	109	28	78%	3.6	25.8%	12.3%	13.4%	3.1%	4.08	4.20	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Birdsong (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	25.1%	13.7%	3.7%	—	4.95	25.6%	12.9%	434	-0.16	—	—	—
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	74
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	73
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	73
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	73
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	73
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	69
Carson Seymour R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	19.8%	10.2%	2.3%	.292	4.55	18.9%	9.6%	348	+0.59	3.39	572	69
Matt Ball R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP-	4.72	21.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	312	69
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	69
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	68
Ben Casparius R 2023 · 5.73 FIP	24	SP-	5.73	20.1%	13.0%	4.9%	.272	3.66	21.8%	11.9%	177	-2.07	3.36	374	68
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	68
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	68
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	68
R.J. Freure R 2021 · 6.10 FIP	24	SP-	6.10	21.7%	16.2%	5.1%	.298	5.89	20.3%	0.1%	26	-0.21	5.13	196	67
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	67
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	67
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	67
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	67
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.6	132	25.3%	13.0%	1.48	5.05
Caleb Smith ('22)	2.1	104	25.1%	11.0%	1.67	4.47
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48