Hayden Birdsong
P
San Francisco Giants
Age 24
RHP
6'5" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 67 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113
ERA5.05
FIP5.18
K%25.3%
BB%14.1%
K-BB%11.2%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6495.5
Whiff%
p7028.4%
K%
p5322.8%
xwOBA vs
p310.334
CH+0.5 (17%)
CU (15%)
FB-0.7 (44%)
SL-5.3 (26%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 47.9% | 6.2% | 41.7% | 0.0% | 3.09 | -0.15 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 47.9% | 6.2% | 41.7% | 0.0% | 3.09 | -0.07 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 25 | 101 | 427 | 149 | 44 | 6 | 89% | 3.6 | 26.7% | 11.9% | 14.8% | 1.7% | 3.31 | 3.29 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 25 | 101 | 427 | 149 | 44 | 6 | 89% | 3.6 | 34.9% | 10.3% | 24.6% | 1.4% | 3.31 | 2.23 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 29 | 129 | 556 | 163 | 69 | 17 | 100% | 4.5 | 26.7% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 3.76 | 4.29 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 29 | 129 | 556 | 163 | 69 | 17 | 100% | 4.5 | 29.3% | 12.4% | 16.9% | 3.1% | 3.76 | 3.89 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 20 | 105 | 493 | 115 | 67 | 19 | 65% | 3.4 | 22.2% | 13.9% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 5.33 | 5.46 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 20 | 105 | 493 | 115 | 67 | 19 | 65% | 3.4 | 23.3% | 13.6% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 5.33 | 5.18 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | SF | 8 | 8 | 46 | 193 | 49 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.3% | 14.1% | 11.2% | 3.7% | 5.05 | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 15 | 15 | 87 | 366 | 94 | 48 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.7% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 5.03 | 5.01 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 99 | 416 | 108 | 54 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.9% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 3.7% | 5.01 | 4.99 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 101 | 427 | 110 | 56 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.9% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 3.8% | 5.02 | 5.03 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 101 | 427 | 110 | 57 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.8% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 3.9% | 5.08 | 5.11 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 14 | 14 | 82 | 346 | 89 | 45 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.7% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 5.03 | 5.01 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 94 | 397 | 103 | 52 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.9% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 3.7% | 5.01 | 4.99 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 105 | 53 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.9% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 3.8% | 5.02 | 5.03 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 104 | 54 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.8% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 3.9% | 5.08 | 5.11 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 99 | 88 | 506 | 2167 | 557 | 285 | 80 | 89% | 5.1 | 25.7% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 3.7% | 4.96 | 4.61 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 35 | 200 | 857 | 220 | 113 | 32 | 89% | 5.1 | 25.7% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 3.7% | 4.96 | 4.61 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 95 | 74 | 346 | 1524 | 395 | 192 | 48 | 78% | 3.6 | 25.9% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 4.08 | 4.25 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 43 | 200 | 880 | 228 | 111 | 28 | 78% | 3.6 | 25.9% | 12.6% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 4.08 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hayden Birdsong (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.18 | 25.3% | 14.1% | 3.7% | — | 5.01 | 25.8% | 12.7% | 286 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Sean Mooney R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 73 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 73 |
| Jake Lee R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 72 |
| Carson Seymour R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.11 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .292 | 4.64 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 315 | +0.53 | 3.28 | 538 | 69 |
| Carson Rudd R 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.67 | 21.0% | 13.0% | 4.9% | .274 | 4.57 | 17.5% | -0.1% | 110 | -1.10 | 3.43 | 242 | 69 |
| Matt Ball R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 21.3% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 312 | 69 |
| R.J. Freure R 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.83 | 21.7% | 16.2% | 4.6% | .298 | 6.05 | 20.3% | 0.1% | 26 | +0.22 | 5.19 | 196 | 69 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 68 |
| Ben Casparius R 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.63 | 20.1% | 13.0% | 4.7% | .272 | 3.67 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 166 | -1.96 | 3.49 | 364 | 68 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 68 |
| Jacob Odle R 2024 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 25.2% | 17.0% | 3.3% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 104 | 68 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 5.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.64 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 5.1% | .314 | 4.81 | 22.8% | 10.5% | 54 | -0.83 | 4.03 | 152 | 68 |
| Bryce Mayer R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 27.2% | 15.0% | 3.8% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 140 | 68 |
| Luke Gabrysh R 2025 · 5.55 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.55 | 21.8% | 13.7% | 4.7% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 138 | 67 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.38 | 17.9% | 13.9% | 3.7% | .285 | 4.39 | 26.3% | 15.2% | 225 | -0.99 | 4.11 | 563 | 67 |
| Zach Linginfelter R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.72 | 19.1% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .295 | 4.94 | 18.8% | -0.6% | 46 | -0.78 | 3.58 | 109 | 67 |
| Blade Tidwell R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 2.9% | .295 | 4.29 | 22.9% | 11.6% | 57 | +0.22 | 4.07 | 408 | 67 |
| Adbert Alzolay R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.49 | 27.2% | 11.5% | 4.1% | .280 | 3.93 | 26.8% | 19.7% | 160 | -0.56 | 1.53 | 594 | 66 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.22 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .293 | 4.57 | 22.2% | 10.9% | 274 | -0.65 | 4.00 | 512 | 66 |
| Peter Solomon R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.87 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .283 | 5.61 | 17.7% | 5.7% | 286 | +0.74 | 2.87 | 516 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 87 | 25.7% | 13.3% | 1.46 | 5.04 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Caleb Smith ('22) | 4 | 104 | 25.1% | 11.0% | 1.67 | 4.47 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Dinelson Lamet ('23) | 6 | 61 | 30.0% | 10.7% | 1.29 | 4.66 |
| Héctor Santiago ('21) | 6 | 99 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 1.56 | 4.48 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |