Jackson Kowar
P
Norfolk Tides
+0.1
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'5" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA5.11
FIP4.73
xFIP5.23
SIERA4.45
K%22.0%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%10.6%
IP31
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL3030
CMD4040
K†6060
FB Velo
p9097.3
Whiff%
p5025.2%
K%
p4321.1%
xwOBA vs
p200.348
FB+1.7 (59%)
SI (1%)
SL-0.7 (36%)
CH-1.3 (5%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lexington Legends | 9 | 9 | 26 | 107 | 22 | 12 | 2 | 15.2% | 13.2% | 2.3% | 3.42 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 26 | 26 | 148 | 622 | 144 | 43 | 12 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.52 | 3.99 | +2.2 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 26 | 24 | 111 | 492 | 144 | 54 | 14 | 26.5% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 5.59 | 3.94 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 27 | 20 | 99 | 469 | 105 | 54 | 18 | 20.1% | 12.0% | 4.2% | 6.73 | 5.21 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 53 | 1 | 73 | 357 | 78 | 52 | 8 | 20.2% | 15.0% | 2.4% | 6.14 | 4.59 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 33 | 2 | 33 | 144 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 3.55 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 5 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.60 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | BAL | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 32 | 17 | 4 | 24.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 5.32 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 36 | 149 | 37 | 18 | 5 | 24.9% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 5.08 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 30 | 16 | 4 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.97 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 179 | 82 | 496 | 2210 | 462 | 248 | 67 | 20.9% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 5.01 | 4.42 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 33 | 200 | 891 | 186 | 100 | 27 | 20.9% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 5.01 | 4.42 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Kowar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 24.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | — | 4.75 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 30 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 76 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 76 |
| Joe Colón J R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 75 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 74 |
| Jake Cousins R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.50 | 27.9% | 13.3% | 3.8% | .379 | 3.49 | 34.2% | 21.9% | 38 | -1.01 | 1.11 | 160 | 74 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 73 |
| Pedro Báez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.23 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .261 | 3.16 | 24.7% | 16.1% | 143 | -1.07 | 2.29 | 332 | 73 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .360 | 6.40 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 96 | +2.14 | 4.26 | 258 | 73 |
| Jacob Barnes R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.11 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 4.7% | .303 | 3.52 | 23.1% | 15.1% | 101 | -1.59 | 1.76 | 551 | 73 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.46 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 4.7% | .240 | 4.76 | 16.2% | 2.5% | 92 | -0.70 | 3.58 | 291 | 73 |
| Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 73 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 72 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 72 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.01 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.91 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.90 | 4.01 | 130 | 72 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 71 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.77 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.74 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | -0.03 | 2.26 | 602 | 71 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 71 |
| Art Warren R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.62 | 24.2% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .316 | 7.07 | 18.6% | 1.7% | 27 | +2.45 | 1.40 | 322 | 71 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 2.4% | .310 | 4.90 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 154 | +0.65 | 3.99 | 748 | 71 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.