Jackson Kowar — OGILVIE

Jackson Kowar P Norfolk Tides

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION5 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.98

K%22.6%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.3

Whiff%

p5025.2%

p4321.1%

xwOBA vs

p200.348

FB+1.7 (59%)

SI (1%)

SL-0.7 (36%)

CH-1.3 (5%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	A MLE	Lexington Legends	9	9	26	107	22	12	2	100%	2.9	15.2%	13.2%	2.0%	2.3%	3.42	4.76	—
2018	21	A RAW	Lexington Legends	9	9	26	107	22	12	2	100%	2.9	20.6%	11.2%	9.3%	1.9%	3.42	3.78	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	148	622	144	43	12	100%	5.7	18.3%	7.8%	10.5%	2.6%	3.52	3.98	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	148	622	144	43	12	100%	5.7	23.2%	6.9%	16.2%	1.9%	3.52	3.08	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	111	492	144	54	14	92%	4.3	26.5%	11.3%	15.1%	3.1%	5.59	3.98	+1.2
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	111	492	144	54	14	92%	4.3	29.3%	11.0%	18.3%	2.8%	5.59	3.60	+1.7
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	99	469	105	54	18	74%	3.7	20.1%	12.0%	8.2%	4.3%	6.73	5.25	-0.4
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	20	99	469	105	54	18	74%	3.7	22.4%	11.5%	10.9%	3.8%	6.73	4.98	-0.1
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	73	357	78	52	8	2%	1.4	19.5%	13.7%	5.8%	2.5%	6.14	4.57	-0.0
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	73	357	78	52	8	2%	1.4	19.5%	13.7%	5.8%	2.5%	6.14	4.57	-0.0
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	1	73	357	78	52	8	2%	1.4	21.8%	14.6%	7.3%	2.2%	6.14	4.52	+0.0
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	2	33	144	31	17	4	6%	1.0	20.3%	11.9%	8.5%	3.0%	3.55	4.55	-0.0
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	2	33	144	31	17	4	6%	1.0	20.3%	11.9%	8.5%	3.0%	3.55	4.55	-0.0
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	2	33	144	31	17	4	6%	1.0	21.5%	11.8%	9.7%	2.8%	3.55	4.34	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			54	8	91	444	90	58	19	15%	1.7	20.3%	13.1%	7.2%	4.3%	8.21	5.75	-1.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	5	0	5	19	5	1	1	0%	1.0	—	—	—	—	3.60	—	—
YTD	29	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	5	0	5	19	5	1	1	0%	1.0	—	—	—	—	3.60	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	AAA RAW	BAL	5	0	5	19	5	1	1	0%	1.0	26.3%	5.3%	21.1%	5.3%	3.60	4.43	—
ROS	29	MLB MLE	BAL	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.6%	13.4%	9.2%	3.1%	4.99	4.98	-0.0
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	11	44	11	4	2	—	—	24.2%	9.9%	14.3%	4.0%	4.35	2.69	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	BAL	126	0	132	559	122	73	18	0%	1.1	21.8%	13.1%	8.7%	3.3%	5.03	5.11	-0.8
2028	31	MLB MLE	BAL	118	0	124	522	110	68	18	0%	1.0	21.1%	13.1%	8.0%	3.5%	5.15	5.28	-1.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	BAL	47	0	49	207	45	27	7	0%	1.0	21.8%	13.1%	8.7%	3.3%	5.03	5.11	-0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	BAL	65	0	68	287	60	37	10	0%	1.0	21.1%	13.1%	8.0%	3.5%	5.15	5.28	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		166	8	208	940	196	123	36	5%	1.3	20.9%	13.1%	7.8%	3.8%	6.46	5.09	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		159	8	200	902	188	118	35	5%	1.3	20.9%	13.1%	7.8%	3.8%	6.46	5.09	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		179	82	496	2210	459	241	68	46%	2.8	20.8%	10.9%	9.8%	3.1%	5.01	4.42	-3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	33	200	891	185	97	28	46%	2.8	20.8%	10.9%	9.8%	3.1%	5.01	4.42	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Kowar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	22.6%	13.4%	3.1%	—	5.19	21.4%	8.4%	256	+0.21	—	—	—
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	204	70
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	65
André Rienzo R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	29	SW	4.40	18.9%	15.6%	1.7%	.301	5.33	17.9%	6.1%	29	+0.93	3.53	200	64
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	64
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	63
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	62
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	62
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	62
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	61
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2019 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	15.8%	12.6%	2.5%	.265	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	221	61
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	61
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	60
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	60
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	60
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	60
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	59
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	59
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	59
Phillippe Aumont R 2018 · 5.05 FIP	29	SU	5.05	22.8%	10.5%	4.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	147	59
David Lebron R 2021 · 5.56 FIP	27	SU	5.56	26.7%	14.7%	5.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	4.28	144	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	132	21.8%	13.2%	1.27	5.05
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54