Jackson Kowar

P Norfolk Tides

Age 30 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	MIX2 levels	53	1	73	6.14	4.52	21.8%	14.6%	0.0	K 19.9% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.53
2025	28	MIX3 levels	33	2	33	3.55	4.34	21.5%	11.8%	0.1	K 20.7% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.52
2026	29	AAABAL	5	0	5	3.60	4.30	26.3%	5.3%	—	K 26.3% · BB 5.3% · FIP 4.43
2027PROJ	30	MLBBAL	15	0	16	4.80	4.82	23.2%	12.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	31	MLBBAL	43	0	45	4.89	4.99	22.3%	12.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	32	MLBBAL	52	0	55	5.05	5.19	21.5%	12.5%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo90

K%43

xwOBA vs20

CompsJosh Zeid (age 30) · Matt Palmer (age 30) · Deck McGuire (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.80

FIP4.82

K%23.2%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%10.6%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.3

Whiff%

p5025.2%

p4321.1%

xwOBA vs

p200.348

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	21	A MLE	Lexington Legends	9	9	26	107	22	12	2	100%	2.9	15.2%	13.2%	2.0%	2.3%	3.42	4.76	—
2018	21	A RAW	Lexington Legends	9	9	26	107	22	12	2	100%	2.9	20.6%	11.2%	9.3%	1.9%	3.42	3.78	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	148	622	144	43	12	100%	5.7	18.3%	7.8%	10.5%	2.6%	3.52	3.98	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	148	622	144	43	12	100%	5.7	23.2%	6.9%	16.2%	1.9%	3.52	3.08	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	111	492	144	54	14	92%	4.3	26.5%	11.3%	15.1%	3.1%	5.59	3.98	+1.9
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	111	492	144	54	14	92%	4.3	29.3%	11.0%	18.3%	2.8%	5.59	3.60	+2.4
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	99	469	105	54	18	74%	3.7	20.1%	12.0%	8.2%	4.3%	6.73	5.25	+0.2
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	20	99	469	105	54	18	74%	3.7	22.4%	11.5%	10.9%	3.8%	6.73	4.98	+0.5
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	73	357	78	52	8	2%	1.4	19.9%	13.7%	6.3%	2.5%	6.14	4.53	+0.0
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	1	73	357	78	52	8	2%	1.4	21.8%	14.6%	7.3%	2.2%	6.14	4.52	+0.0
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	2	33	144	31	17	4	6%	1.0	20.7%	11.9%	8.8%	3.0%	3.55	4.52	+0.0
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	2	33	144	31	17	4	6%	1.0	20.7%	11.9%	8.8%	3.0%	3.55	4.52	+0.0
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	2	33	144	31	17	4	6%	1.0	21.5%	11.8%	9.7%	2.8%	3.55	4.34	+0.1
2026	29	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	5	0	5	19	5	1	1	0%	1.0	26.3%	5.3%	21.1%	5.3%	3.60	4.43	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	5	0	5	19	5	1	1	0%	1.0	26.3%	5.3%	21.1%	5.3%	3.60	4.43	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	5	0	5	19	5	1	1	0%	1.0	26.3%	5.3%	21.1%	5.3%	3.60	4.30	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			54	8	91	444	90	58	19	15%	1.7	20.3%	13.1%	7.2%	4.3%	8.21	5.75	-1.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	BAL	15	0	16	68	16	8	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	12.6%	10.6%	3.1%	4.80	4.82	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	BAL	117	0	123	520	116	65	17	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.4%	9.9%	3.3%	4.89	4.99	-0.6
2029	32	MLB MLE	BAL	95	0	100	422	91	53	15	0%	1.1	21.5%	12.5%	9.0%	3.5%	5.05	5.19	-0.7
2028	31	MLB CTX	BAL	43	0	45	190	42	24	6	0%	1.0	22.3%	12.4%	9.9%	3.3%	4.89	4.99	-0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	BAL	52	0	55	232	50	29	8	0%	1.1	21.5%	12.5%	9.0%	3.5%	5.05	5.19	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		150	8	191	868	182	111	34	5%	1.3	21.0%	12.8%	8.3%	3.9%	6.51	5.06	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		156	8	200	907	190	116	36	5%	1.3	21.0%	12.8%	8.3%	3.9%	6.51	5.06	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		179	82	496	2210	461	241	68	46%	2.8	20.9%	10.9%	9.9%	3.1%	5.01	4.42	-2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	33	200	891	186	97	28	46%	2.8	20.9%	10.9%	9.9%	3.1%	5.01	4.42	-1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 14 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.18 (+0.08)K% 23.4% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.44%	—	×0.860	20.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.62%	—	×0.900	14.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.204	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 141).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 45 IPFIP 4.06 → 4.31 (+0.25)K% 22.3% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.27%	—	×0.860	19.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.55%	—	×0.900	13.09%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷0.942	×1.100	2.12%

Result: FIP 4.06 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 83 IPFIP 4.57 → 5.11 (+0.54)K% 22.7% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.74%	—	×0.880	20.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.050	11.67%
HR / BF /BF	3.62%	÷0.984	×1.100	4.05%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 97).

Result: FIP 4.57 → 5.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 81 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.13 (+0.49)K% 34.0% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.02%	—	×0.880	29.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.06%	—	×1.050	10.56%
HR / BF /BF	2.07%	÷1.027	×1.100	2.22%

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 74 IPFIP 2.91 → 3.75 (+0.84)K% 21.2% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.15%	—	×0.770	16.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.05%	—	×1.150	8.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.28%	÷0.884	×1.250	1.81%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 2.91 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 74 IPFIP 3.25 → 4.21 (+0.96)K% 25.2% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.16%	—	×0.810	20.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.77%	—	×1.100	7.45%
HR / BF /BF	2.58%	÷0.901	×1.200	3.44%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 3.25 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ALexington Legends · 26 IPFIP 3.81 → 4.76 (+0.95)K% 20.6% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.56%	—	×0.740	15.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.21%	—	×1.180	13.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.87%	÷1.051	×1.300	2.31%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 3.81 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jackson Kowar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	23.2%	12.6%	3.1%	—	5.08	21.9%	9.5%	223	+0.26	—	—	—
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	313	64
Matt Palmer R 2009 · 4.58 FIP	30	SW	4.58	13.7%	10.5%	2.4%	.251	3.72	10.6%	0.5%	49	-0.86	2.98	183	57
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	57
Burch Smith R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	29	SW	3.96	22.6%	12.3%	2.2%	.271	4.19	14.9%	9.0%	43	+0.23	3.50	418	57
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	55
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	54
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	54
Jorge Campillo R 2008 · 3.93 FIP	29	SP-	3.93	16.3%	5.5%	2.8%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	172	53
Raynel Espinal R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	23.9%	10.5%	3.6%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	507	53
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	53
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	52
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	215	52
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	52
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	30	SW	4.09	13.7%	8.7%	1.9%	.270	3.53	19.1%	10.5%	220	-0.56	3.13	689	52
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	51
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	51
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	51
Scott Carroll R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	30	SW	3.92	12.7%	7.7%	1.7%	.286	5.07	11.2%	2.6%	128	+1.15	3.92	377	51
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	51
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	50

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	96	22.0%	12.6%	1.35	5.52
Lowell Palmer ('69-'74, -4 WAR*)	1.6	79	21.9%*	13.3%*	1.59*	6.09*
Jim Duckworth ('63-'66, -4 WAR*)	1.3	67	23.1%*	12.4%*	1.43*	6.15*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Robinson Tejeda ('11)	2.2	74	19.1%	12.6%	0.96	4.42
Wilfredo Ledezma ('11)	2.0	66	15.7%	10.9%	1.02	5.40
Jackie Brown ('70-'77, 1 WAR*)	4.5	128	19.7%*	8.9%*	1.21*	4.93*