Jackson Kowar
P
Norfolk Tides
Age 29
RHP
6'5" / 200 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION5 act + 141 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 115
ERA5.04
FIP5.06
K%22.9%
BB%14.2%
K-BB%8.7%
ROS IP141
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9097.3
Whiff%
p5025.2%
K%
p4321.1%
xwOBA vs
p200.348
FB+1.7 (59%)
SI (1%)
SL-0.7 (36%)
CH-1.3 (5%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lexington Legends | 9 | 9 | 26 | 107 | 22 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 2.9 | 15.2% | 13.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.42 | 4.70 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Lexington Legends | 9 | 9 | 26 | 107 | 22 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 2.9 | 20.6% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 1.9% | 3.42 | 3.78 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 148 | 622 | 144 | 43 | 12 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 3.52 | 4.17 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 148 | 622 | 144 | 43 | 12 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.2% | 6.9% | 16.2% | 1.9% | 3.52 | 3.08 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 111 | 492 | 144 | 54 | 14 | 92% | 4.3 | 26.5% | 11.3% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 5.59 | 3.95 | +1.9 |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 24 | 111 | 492 | 144 | 54 | 14 | 92% | 4.3 | 29.3% | 11.0% | 18.3% | 2.8% | 5.59 | 3.60 | +2.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 99 | 469 | 105 | 54 | 18 | 74% | 3.7 | 20.1% | 12.0% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 6.73 | 5.28 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 20 | 99 | 469 | 105 | 54 | 18 | 74% | 3.7 | 22.4% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 3.8% | 6.73 | 4.98 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 1 | 73 | 357 | 78 | 52 | 8 | 2% | 1.4 | 20.2% | 15.0% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 6.14 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 1 | 73 | 357 | 78 | 52 | 8 | 2% | 1.4 | 21.8% | 14.6% | 7.3% | 2.2% | 6.14 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 2 | 33 | 144 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 6% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 3.55 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 2 | 33 | 144 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 6% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 3.55 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 5 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | — | — |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | BAL | 134 | 0 | 141 | 595 | 137 | 85 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 14.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 5.06 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 14.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 146 | 614 | 142 | 86 | 20 | — | — | 23.0% | 13.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.99 | 4.89 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 14 | 60 | 14 | 8 | 2 | — | — | 22.9% | 14.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 5.04 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 126 | 0 | 132 | 559 | 124 | 78 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 5.10 | 5.19 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 118 | 0 | 124 | 522 | 112 | 72 | 18 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 5.22 | 5.35 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 46 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 5.10 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 61 | 40 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 5.22 | 5.35 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 179 | 8 | 222 | 997 | 211 | 135 | 38 | 4% | 1.2 | 21.1% | 13.5% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 6.41 | 5.11 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 161 | 7 | 200 | 898 | 190 | 122 | 34 | 4% | 1.2 | 21.1% | 13.5% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 6.41 | 5.11 | +0.7 | ||
| Career | — | 179 | 82 | 496 | 2210 | 462 | 248 | 71 | 46% | 2.8 | 20.9% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 5.01 | 4.51 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 33 | 200 | 891 | 186 | 100 | 28 | 46% | 2.8 | 20.9% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 5.01 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Kowar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.06 | 22.9% | 14.2% | 3.1% | — | 5.27 | 21.8% | 8.0% | 256 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Frías R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 69 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.33 | 18.9% | 15.6% | 1.5% | .301 | 5.30 | 17.9% | 6.1% | 29 | +0.97 | 3.58 | 200 | 64 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 63 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.39 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .333 | 3.24 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -1.15 | 2.96 | 230 | 63 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 6.19 FIP | 29 | SW | 6.19 | 15.7% | 13.1% | 5.0% | .294 | 5.26 | 19.2% | 8.7% | 25 | -0.93 | 3.33 | 258 | 62 |
| David Lebron R 2024 · 5.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.07 | 26.7% | 14.7% | 4.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 144 | 62 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.88 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.89 | 3.99 | 130 | 62 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.94 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .278 | 3.42 | 27.3% | 14.2% | 51 | -0.52 | 3.22 | 537 | 61 |
| Dustin Antolin R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.36 | 16.2% | 14.4% | 1.5% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 159 | 61 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 60 |
| Nathan Eovaldi R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.49 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 5.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 24.6% | 20.4% | 340 | -2.25 | 2.49 | 1,354 | 60 |
| Aldo Montes R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.41 | 18.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 210 | 60 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.88 | 15.8% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 221 | 60 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 17.2% | 16.0% | 2.0% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 138 | 60 |
| Mike Adams R 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 60 |
| Fernery Ozuna R 2024 · 5.77 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.77 | 19.5% | 13.5% | 4.7% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 157 | 59 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 59 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.18 | 22.7% | 13.7% | 2.3% | .310 | 4.93 | 15.3% | 5.5% | 154 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 748 | 59 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 59 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.87 | 232 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 132 | 22.2% | 14.0% | 1.28 | 5.12 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |