Austin Peterson — OGILVIE

Austin Peterson P Columbus Clippers

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 234 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.0 · 2028 ILForty Man (40M)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 138 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%19.4%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP138

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 138 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CMD5055

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$7M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$7M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.8M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	24	24	117	502	102	27	12	100%	4.9	15.0%	6.3%	8.7%	3.1%	4.54	4.31	—
2023	23	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	24	24	117	502	102	27	12	100%	4.9	20.3%	5.4%	14.9%	2.4%	4.54	3.38	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	160	608	159	21	8	100%	5.9	20.6%	3.8%	16.8%	1.5%	2.64	2.69	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	160	608	159	21	8	100%	5.9	20.6%	3.8%	16.8%	1.5%	2.64	2.69	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	160	608	159	21	8	100%	5.9	26.2%	3.5%	22.7%	1.3%	2.64	2.16	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	146	591	127	40	15	93%	5.2	18.1%	6.4%	11.6%	2.8%	3.21	3.93	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	146	591	127	40	15	93%	5.2	18.1%	6.4%	11.6%	2.8%	3.21	3.93	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	146	591	127	40	15	93%	5.2	21.5%	6.8%	14.7%	2.5%	3.21	3.52	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	109	465	115	40	15	84%	4.4	21.0%	7.8%	13.2%	3.3%	4.29	4.11	+1.0
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	109	465	115	40	15	84%	4.4	21.0%	7.8%	13.2%	3.3%	4.29	4.11	+1.0
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	109	465	115	40	15	84%	4.4	24.7%	8.6%	16.1%	3.2%	4.29	3.88	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			2	0	7	27	8	2	2	0%	3.5	29.6%	7.4%	22.2%	7.4%	2.57	5.39	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CLE	23	23	138	583	113	38	17	100%	6.0	19.4%	6.5%	12.8%	3.0%	4.31	4.31	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CLE	28	28	165	697	136	47	21	100%	5.9	19.5%	6.8%	12.7%	3.1%	4.35	4.39	+1.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	CLE	26	26	158	665	130	47	21	100%	6.1	19.5%	7.1%	12.4%	3.2%	4.44	4.51	+0.7
2030	30	MLB MLE	CLE	25	25	148	625	120	46	21	100%	5.9	19.2%	7.4%	11.8%	3.4%	4.57	4.67	+0.4
2031	31	MLB MLE	CLE	23	23	138	583	110	45	21	100%	6.0	18.9%	7.8%	11.1%	3.6%	4.74	4.86	+0.1
2032	32	MLB MLE	CLE	21	21	128	539	100	44	21	100%	6.1	18.5%	8.2%	10.3%	3.9%	4.95	5.09	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	91	384	75	26	12	100%	6.1	19.5%	6.8%	12.7%	3.1%	4.35	4.39	+0.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	CLE	18	18	106	448	87	32	14	100%	5.9	19.5%	7.1%	12.4%	3.2%	4.44	4.51	+0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	CLE	19	19	113	477	92	35	16	100%	5.9	19.2%	7.4%	11.8%	3.4%	4.57	4.67	+0.3
2031	31	MLB CTX	CLE	19	19	113	477	90	37	17	100%	5.9	18.9%	7.8%	11.1%	3.6%	4.74	4.86	+0.1
2032	32	MLB CTX	CLE	18	18	110	464	86	38	18	100%	6.1	18.5%	8.2%	10.3%	3.9%	4.94	5.08	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		91	89	540	2278	438	171	80	98%	5.9	19.2%	7.5%	11.7%	3.5%	4.59	4.35	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	843	162	63	30	98%	5.9	19.2%	7.5%	11.7%	3.5%	4.59	4.35	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		104	98	532	2166	405	130	56	94%	5.1	18.7%	6.0%	12.7%	2.6%	3.55	3.71	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	37	200	815	152	49	21	94%	5.1	18.7%	6.0%	12.7%	2.6%	3.55	3.71	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Peterson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	19.4%	6.5%	3.0%	—	4.52	19.4%	12.3%	471	+0.21	—	—	—
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	76
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	75
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	74
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	73
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	73
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	73
Mickey Callaway R 2002 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP	4.22	15.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.248	4.41	14.6%	5.8%	72	+0.19	4.22	126	73
Brady Rodgers R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	27	SP	4.03	15.0%	6.0%	2.6%	.333	5.44	14.7%	5.7%	49	+1.41	1.98	354	71
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	71
Connor Grey R 2021 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	22.1%	8.1%	2.8%	.286	4.37	16.2%	7.0%	104	+0.55	2.70	461	71
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	70
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	70
Luke Hudson R 2004 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP	3.82	18.6%	11.8%	1.5%	.237	4.59	14.2%	3.9%	187	+0.77	3.81	235	70
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	70
Yohan Pino R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	19.4%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.45	17.1%	11.9%	133	+0.61	3.84	193	70
Danny Gutierrez R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	28	SP	3.34	15.0%	5.8%	1.4%	.358	4.26	12.4%	4.0%	186	+0.92	3.34	239	69
Stephen Fife R 2013 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP	3.94	17.4%	7.0%	2.6%	.330	3.11	18.8%	10.7%	27	-0.83	3.11	264	69
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	69
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	68
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	147	19.3%	7.3%	1.31	4.53
Colby Lewis ('16)	6.1	135	18.4%	7.2%	1.32	4.70
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Jeremy Hellickson ('19)	6.3	127	17.4%	7.2%	1.30	4.13
Shaun Marcum ('15)	5.2	129	19.4%	7.3%	1.22	3.93
Miguel González ('18)	4.4	147	16.4%	7.6%	1.25	4.06
Jeremy Bonderman ('13)	6.2	154	18.0%	8.1%	1.13	4.91