Austin Peterson

P Columbus Clippers

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 234 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	27	27	160	2.64	2.16	26.2%	3.5%	—	K 20.6% · BB 3.8% · FIP 2.69
2025	25	MIX2 levels	28	26	146	3.21	3.52	21.5%	6.8%	—	K 18.1% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.93
2026	26	MIX2 levels	25	21	109	4.29	3.88	24.7%	8.6%	2.0	K 21.0% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.11
2027PROJ	27	MLBCLE	19	19	112	4.31	4.31	19.4%	6.5%	1.4
2028PROJ75% MLB	28	MLBCLE	18	18	105	4.35	4.39	19.5%	6.8%	1.2
2029PROJ80% MLB	29	MLBCLE	16	16	98	4.44	4.51	19.5%	7.1%	1.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.012First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$3M2031Arb-2$3M2032Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 0.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsCole Johnson (age 27) · Ramon Ramirez (age 25) · Rolando Valdez (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%19.4%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%12.8%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$30M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.012 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$11M	+$11M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$9M	+$8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.5M
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$32M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	24	24	117	502	102	27	12	100%	4.9	15.0%	6.3%	8.7%	3.1%	4.54	4.31	—
2023	23	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	24	24	117	502	102	27	12	100%	4.9	20.3%	5.4%	14.9%	2.4%	4.54	3.38	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	160	608	159	21	8	100%	5.9	20.6%	3.8%	16.8%	1.5%	2.64	2.69	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	160	608	159	21	8	100%	5.9	20.6%	3.8%	16.8%	1.5%	2.64	2.69	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	160	608	159	21	8	100%	5.9	26.2%	3.5%	22.7%	1.3%	2.64	2.16	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	146	591	127	40	15	93%	5.2	18.1%	6.4%	11.6%	2.8%	3.21	3.93	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	146	591	127	40	15	93%	5.2	18.1%	6.4%	11.6%	2.8%	3.21	3.93	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	146	591	127	40	15	93%	5.2	21.5%	6.8%	14.7%	2.5%	3.21	3.52	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	109	465	115	40	15	84%	4.4	21.0%	7.8%	13.2%	3.3%	4.29	4.11	+1.7
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	21	109	465	115	40	15	84%	4.4	21.0%	7.8%	13.2%	3.3%	4.29	4.11	+1.7
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	21	109	465	115	40	15	84%	4.4	24.7%	8.6%	16.1%	3.2%	4.29	3.88	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			2	0	7	27	8	2	2	0%	3.5	29.6%	7.4%	22.2%	7.4%	2.57	5.39	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CLE	19	19	112	473	92	31	14	100%	5.9	19.4%	6.5%	12.8%	3.0%	4.31	4.31	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CLE	23	23	140	591	115	40	18	100%	6.1	19.5%	6.8%	12.7%	3.1%	4.35	4.39	+1.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	CLE	21	21	123	521	101	37	17	100%	5.9	19.5%	7.1%	12.4%	3.2%	4.44	4.51	+1.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	CLE	18	18	110	467	90	35	16	100%	6.1	19.2%	7.4%	11.8%	3.4%	4.57	4.67	+0.9
2031	31	MLB MLE	CLE	16	16	98	416	79	32	15	100%	6.2	18.9%	7.8%	11.1%	3.6%	4.74	4.86	+0.6
2032	32	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	86	365	67	30	14	100%	6.2	18.5%	8.2%	10.3%	3.9%	4.95	5.09	+0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	CLE	18	18	105	443	87	30	14	100%	5.8	19.5%	6.8%	12.7%	3.1%	4.35	4.39	+1.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	98	414	81	29	13	100%	6.1	19.5%	7.1%	12.4%	3.2%	4.44	4.51	+1.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	92	388	75	29	13	100%	6.1	19.2%	7.4%	11.8%	3.4%	4.57	4.67	+0.8
2031	31	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	84	355	67	28	13	100%	6.0	18.9%	7.8%	11.1%	3.6%	4.74	4.86	+0.5
2032	32	MLB CTX	CLE	13	13	76	321	59	26	12	100%	5.8	18.5%	8.2%	10.3%	3.9%	4.94	5.08	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	76	462	1948	376	144	67	97%	5.9	19.3%	7.4%	11.9%	3.5%	4.55	4.31	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	843	163	62	29	97%	5.9	19.3%	7.4%	11.9%	3.5%	4.55	4.31	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		104	98	532	2166	405	130	56	94%	5.1	18.7%	6.0%	12.7%	2.6%	3.55	3.71	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	37	200	815	152	49	21	94%	5.1	18.7%	6.0%	12.7%	2.6%	3.55	3.71	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAColumbus Clippers · 102 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.11 (+0.34)K% 24.4% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.43%	—	×0.860	21.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.68%	—	×0.900	7.81%
HR / BF /BF	2.97%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.26%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 91 IPFIP 3.80 → 3.95 (+0.15)K% 20.2% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.21%	—	×0.860	17.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.77%	—	×0.900	6.99%
HR / BF /BF	2.59%	÷1.093	×1.100	2.61%

Result: FIP 3.80 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAkron RubberDucks · 55 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.88 (+0.84)K% 23.9% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.90%	—	×0.810	19.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.88%	—	×1.100	5.37%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷0.926	×1.200	3.16%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Lake County Captains · 85 IPFIP 1.56 → 2.15 (+0.59)K% 27.1% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.10%	—	×0.770	20.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.87%	—	×1.150	2.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷1.190	×1.250	0.98%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 138).

Result: FIP 1.56 → 2.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAkron RubberDucks · 75 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.30 (+0.70)K% 25.1% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.09%	—	×0.810	20.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.23%	—	×1.100	5.75%
HR / BF /BF	1.74%	÷0.966	×1.200	2.17%

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALynchburg Hillcats · 117 IPFIP 3.38 → 4.31 (+0.93)K% 20.3% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.32%	—	×0.740	15.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.38%	—	×1.180	6.35%
HR / BF /BF	2.39%	÷1.017	×1.300	3.06%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.38 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Peterson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.51	19.4%	12.3%	374	+0.20	—	—	—
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	76
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	75
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	74
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	73
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	73
Markus Solbach R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	27	SP	3.58	16.9%	6.1%	2.1%	.311	4.62	17.1%	9.1%	111	+1.04	3.34	391	73
Mickey Callaway R 2002 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP	4.22	15.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.248	4.41	14.6%	5.8%	72	+0.19	4.22	126	73
Brady Rodgers R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	27	SP	4.03	15.0%	6.0%	2.6%	.333	5.44	14.7%	5.7%	49	+1.41	1.98	354	71
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	71
Connor Grey R 2021 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	22.1%	8.1%	2.8%	.286	4.37	16.2%	7.0%	104	+0.55	2.70	461	71
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	70
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	70
Luke Hudson R 2004 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP	3.82	18.6%	11.8%	1.5%	.237	4.59	14.2%	3.9%	187	+0.77	3.81	235	70
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	70
Yohan Pino R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	19.4%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.45	17.1%	11.9%	133	+0.61	3.84	193	70
Danny Gutierrez R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	28	SP	3.34	15.0%	5.8%	1.4%	.358	4.26	12.4%	4.0%	186	+0.92	3.34	239	69
Stephen Fife R 2013 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP	3.94	17.4%	7.0%	2.6%	.330	3.11	18.8%	10.7%	27	-0.83	3.11	264	69
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	69
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	68
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	122	19.3%	7.2%	1.29	4.50
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Colby Lewis ('16)	6.1	135	18.4%	7.2%	1.32	4.70
Craig Swan ('73-'84, 10 WAR*)	6.2	124	18.8%*	7.1%*	1.36*	4.46*
Mike Fiers ('21)	5.8	128	20.5%	7.0%	1.44	4.07
Tim Leary ('81-'94, 9 WAR*)	7.5	136	18.1%*	8.1%*	1.18*	4.72*
Mike Smithson ('82-'89, 10 WAR*)	6.8	170	17.6%*	6.5%*	1.33*	4.62*