Austin Peterson
P
Columbus Clippers
+0.6
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 26
RHP
6'6" / 234 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.5 · 2027
ERA4.23
FIP4.23
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.7%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%12.5%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2027
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 24 | 24 | 117 | 502 | 102 | 27 | 12 | 15.0% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.32 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 27 | 27 | 160 | 608 | 159 | 21 | 8 | 20.6% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 2.64 | 2.69 | +4.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 28 | 26 | 146 | 591 | 127 | 40 | 15 | 18.3% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 3.21 | 4.01 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 40 | 15 | 6 | 19.7% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 123 | 520 | 104 | 38 | 14 | 20.0% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.24 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 105 | 38 | 15 | 20.1% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.26 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 120 | 509 | 102 | 38 | 15 | 20.1% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.31 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 98 | 37 | 14 | 19.9% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.37 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 113 | 476 | 94 | 37 | 14 | 19.7% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.44 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 89 | 36 | 14 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.53 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 19 | 19 | 103 | 437 | 83 | 35 | 14 | 19.1% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.63 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 78 | 34 | 14 | 18.7% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.74 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 72 | 33 | 13 | 18.4% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.86 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 66 | 32 | 13 | 17.9% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 4.99 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 37 | MLB | CLE | 15 | 15 | 80 | 339 | 59 | 31 | 12 | 17.5% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 5.05 | 5.14 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 79 | 77 | 423 | 1701 | 309 | 98 | 41 | 18.2% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 3.36 | 3.63 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 36 | 200 | 805 | 146 | 46 | 19 | 18.2% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 3.36 | 3.63 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Peterson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.23 | 19.7% | 7.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.27 | 20.0% | 12.7% | 367 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.58 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 169 | 90 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 89 |
| Esmerling De La Rosa R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.37 | 20.5% | 7.2% | 2.0% | .313 | 4.87 | 14.1% | 5.8% | 66 | +1.50 | 2.90 | 237 | 87 |
| Rob Scahill R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 85 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.32 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | .310 | 4.30 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | -0.02 | 3.45 | 161 | 85 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.75 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 2.4% | .246 | 3.68 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 97 | -0.07 | 3.25 | 160 | 84 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 84 |
| Ryan Halstead R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.04 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .296 | 3.25 | 16.1% | 8.7% | 64 | -0.79 | 3.06 | 222 | 84 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 84 |
| John Brebbia R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.23 | 27.6% | 21.4% | 215 | -0.92 | 2.96 | 523 | 83 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 83 |
| Conor Mullee R 2027 · 3.28 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.28 | 17.7% | 7.2% | 1.4% | .290 | 2.64 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 55 | -0.64 | 2.17 | 110 | 83 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.74 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.21 | 2.96 | 114 | 83 |
| Sean Donatello R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.64 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 2.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 141 | 83 |
| Tyson Perez R 2025 · 3.31 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.31 | 15.9% | 4.7% | 1.7% | .224 | 4.75 | 12.2% | 6.3% | 44 | +1.44 | 3.31 | 121 | 83 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 83 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.83 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .289 | 4.21 | 24.7% | 12.1% | 62 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 181 | 83 |
| Seth Frankoff R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.02 | 19.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .312 | 4.24 | 20.0% | 11.3% | 177 | +0.22 | 2.88 | 263 | 82 |
| Joe Navilhon R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.22 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .322 | 4.28 | 23.4% | 16.7% | 99 | +1.06 | 2.25 | 273 | 82 |
| Johnny Magliozzi R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.23 | 17.1% | 5.9% | 1.5% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 131 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.4 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.4 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +1.1 | $10M | +$8M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.9 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +0.8 | $4M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $12M | $53M | +$42M | ||