Austin Peterson — OGILVIE

Austin Peterson P Columbus Clippers

Age 26 RHP 6'6" / 234 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.1 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION101 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.16

FIP4.16

K%17.6%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 115 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CMD5055

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$22M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	24	24	117	502	102	27	12	100%	4.9	15.0%	6.3%	8.7%	3.1%	4.54	4.31	—
2023	23	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	24	24	117	502	102	27	12	100%	4.9	15.0%	6.3%	8.7%	3.1%	4.54	4.31	—
2023	23	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	24	24	117	502	102	27	12	100%	4.9	20.3%	5.4%	14.9%	2.4%	4.54	3.38	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	160	608	159	21	8	100%	5.9	20.6%	3.8%	16.8%	1.5%	2.64	2.69	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	160	608	159	21	8	100%	5.9	20.6%	3.8%	16.8%	1.5%	2.64	2.69	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	160	608	159	21	8	100%	5.9	26.2%	3.5%	22.7%	1.3%	2.64	2.16	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	146	591	127	40	15	93%	5.2	17.7%	6.4%	11.2%	2.8%	3.21	3.96	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	146	591	127	40	15	93%	5.2	17.7%	6.4%	11.2%	2.8%	3.21	3.96	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	146	591	127	40	15	93%	5.2	21.5%	6.8%	14.7%	2.5%	3.21	3.52	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	2	8	3	0	0	0%	2.0	37.5%	0.0%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	23	20	101	433	107	36	13	87%	4.4	20.3%	7.6%	12.7%	3.4%	4.26	4.20	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	23	20	101	433	107	36	13	87%	4.4	20.3%	7.6%	12.7%	3.4%	4.26	4.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	CLE	22	20	99	425	104	36	13	91%	4.5	24.5%	8.5%	16.0%	3.1%	4.35	3.79	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	CLE	1	0	2	8	3	0	0	0%	2.0	37.5%	0.0%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	-0.07	—
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	CLE	1	0	2	8	3	0	0	0%	2.0	37.5%	0.0%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	-0.07	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CLE	2	2	13	56	10	3	2	100%	6.6	17.6%	5.3%	12.2%	2.7%	4.16	4.16	+0.1
ROS	26	MLB CTX	CLE	2	2	13	55	10	3	1	100%	6.5	17.6%	5.3%	12.2%	2.7%	4.16	4.16	+0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	115	489	117	39	15	—	—	23.9%	8.0%	15.9%	3.0%	4.25	4.19	+1.0
FULL	26	MLB A+C	CLE	—	—	15	65	117	39	15	—	—	181.0%	60.4%	120.6%	22.5%	31.85	7.81	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CLE	28	28	166	703	127	40	20	100%	5.9	18.0%	5.7%	12.4%	2.8%	4.19	4.21	+1.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	CLE	28	28	166	703	128	42	20	100%	5.9	18.2%	6.0%	12.2%	2.9%	4.25	4.29	+1.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	CLE	26	26	159	671	122	42	21	100%	6.1	18.1%	6.3%	11.9%	3.1%	4.36	4.42	+0.9
2030	30	MLB MLE	CLE	25	25	150	631	113	42	21	100%	6.0	17.9%	6.6%	11.3%	3.3%	4.50	4.60	+0.5
2031	31	MLB MLE	CLE	23	23	139	589	103	41	21	100%	6.1	17.5%	7.0%	10.5%	3.5%	4.68	4.80	+0.2
2032	32	MLB MLE	CLE	21	21	129	544	93	40	20	100%	6.1	17.0%	7.4%	9.7%	3.7%	4.89	5.02	-0.2
2033	33	MLB MLE	CLE	20	20	118	499	83	39	20	100%	5.9	16.5%	7.8%	8.7%	4.0%	5.12	5.27	-0.5
2027	27	MLB CTX	CLE	26	26	158	667	120	38	19	100%	6.1	18.0%	5.7%	12.4%	2.8%	4.19	4.21	+1.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	CLE	26	26	158	667	121	40	19	100%	6.1	18.2%	6.0%	12.2%	2.9%	4.25	4.29	+1.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	CLE	25	25	151	638	116	40	19	100%	6.0	18.1%	6.3%	11.9%	3.1%	4.36	4.42	+0.8
2030	30	MLB CTX	CLE	24	24	142	600	107	40	20	100%	5.9	17.9%	6.6%	11.3%	3.3%	4.50	4.60	+0.5
2031	31	MLB CTX	CLE	22	22	132	557	97	39	19	100%	6.0	17.5%	7.0%	10.5%	3.5%	4.68	4.80	+0.2
2032	32	MLB CTX	CLE	20	20	122	515	88	38	19	100%	6.1	17.0%	7.4%	9.7%	3.7%	4.88	5.01	-0.2
2033	33	MLB CTX	CLE	19	19	112	473	78	37	19	100%	5.9	16.5%	7.8%	8.7%	4.0%	5.11	5.26	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		166	165	992	4188	742	274	136	99%	6.0	17.7%	6.5%	11.2%	3.3%	4.51	4.22	+8.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	844	150	55	27	99%	6.0	17.7%	6.5%	11.2%	3.3%	4.51	4.22	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		102	97	524	2134	393	126	56	95%	5.1	18.4%	5.9%	12.5%	2.6%	3.54	3.73	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	37	200	815	150	48	21	95%	5.1	18.4%	5.9%	12.5%	2.6%	3.54	3.73	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Peterson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	17.6%	5.3%	2.7%	—	4.30	18.1%	12.2%	492	+0.14	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	17.3%	5.9%	2.8%	.296	4.40	20.5%	12.5%	451	+0.48	3.30	1,146	87
Zach Petrick R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	26	SP	3.41	14.8%	4.2%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	157	84
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	83
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	82
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.28	19.1%	10.1%	247	+0.40	3.88	490	82
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	82
Lindsey Caughel R 2017 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	14.6%	6.5%	3.3%	.276	5.12	13.3%	5.0%	29	+0.63	4.49	187	82
Donn Roach R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	26	SP-	3.50	12.8%	4.2%	1.7%	.300	3.94	13.1%	6.7%	174	+0.44	3.01	455	81
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	15.4%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.57	21.4%	13.2%	105	-1.09	2.42	444	80
Mike Hauschild R 2016 · 3.17 FIP	26	SP	3.17	17.9%	7.0%	1.3%	.312	4.43	16.4%	4.8%	247	+1.26	3.17	579	80
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	80
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	80
Dan Straily R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SP	3.50	19.9%	5.5%	2.5%	.343	4.57	20.7%	12.5%	495	+1.07	3.50	890	80
Tyler Cleveland R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP-	3.99	14.5%	5.4%	2.6%	.284	4.41	18.9%	5.6%	149	+0.42	2.66	285	79
Ian Mejia R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.73	17.1%	6.8%	318	+0.11	3.94	439	79
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	79
Josh A. Smith R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SP	3.40	17.8%	6.9%	1.7%	.307	3.87	19.9%	12.6%	265	+0.47	2.91	598	79
Kyle Luckham R 2023 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	14.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.286	4.27	13.7%	6.7%	376	-0.13	3.78	501	79
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	79
Chad Bettis R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	26	SP	3.67	19.1%	7.6%	2.2%	.310	4.17	15.9%	8.9%	385	+0.50	3.67	603	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.9	147	17.7%	6.4%	1.24	4.48
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45