Austin Peterson
P
Columbus Clippers
Age 26
RHP
6'6" / 234 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.3 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 97
ERA4.23
FIP4.23
K%18.1%
BB%6.4%
K-BB%11.7%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 24 | 24 | 117 | 502 | 102 | 27 | 12 | 100% | 4.9 | 15.0% | 6.3% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.28 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | 24 | 24 | 117 | 502 | 102 | 27 | 12 | 100% | 4.9 | 20.3% | 5.4% | 14.9% | 2.4% | 4.54 | 3.38 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 160 | 608 | 159 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 3.8% | 16.8% | 1.5% | 2.64 | 2.67 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 160 | 608 | 159 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.2% | 3.5% | 22.7% | 1.3% | 2.64 | 2.16 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 146 | 591 | 127 | 40 | 15 | 93% | 5.2 | 18.3% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 3.21 | 3.98 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 146 | 591 | 127 | 40 | 15 | 93% | 5.2 | 21.5% | 6.8% | 14.7% | 2.5% | 3.21 | 3.52 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 13 | 13 | 56 | 245 | 63 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 4.3 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.95 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 50 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 6.4% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CLE | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 18.1% | 6.4% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 121 | 519 | 113 | 42 | 14 | — | — | 21.7% | 8.2% | 13.5% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.25 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 26 | 109 | 20 | 7 | 3 | — | — | 18.1% | 6.4% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.23 | 3.84 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 28 | 28 | 166 | 703 | 130 | 46 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.5% | 6.6% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.27 | +2.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 28 | 28 | 166 | 703 | 131 | 48 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 6.8% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.35 | +2.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 26 | 26 | 159 | 671 | 125 | 48 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.6% | 7.1% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.48 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 25 | 150 | 631 | 116 | 47 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.3% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.65 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 23 | 23 | 139 | 589 | 105 | 46 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.9% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.73 | 4.85 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 129 | 544 | 95 | 44 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.5% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 4.94 | 5.07 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 118 | 499 | 85 | 43 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 5.17 | 5.32 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 17 | 17 | 102 | 431 | 80 | 28 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.5% | 6.6% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.27 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 97 | 35 | 15 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.6% | 6.8% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.35 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 128 | 540 | 100 | 38 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.6% | 7.1% | 11.5% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.48 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 98 | 40 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.3% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.65 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 93 | 40 | 18 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.9% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 4.73 | 4.85 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 20 | 20 | 117 | 494 | 86 | 40 | 18 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.5% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 4.93 | 5.06 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 18 | 18 | 109 | 460 | 78 | 40 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 5.16 | 5.31 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 144 | 144 | 855 | 3608 | 652 | 269 | 118 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.31 | +10.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 153 | 63 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.31 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 92 | 90 | 479 | 1946 | 365 | 124 | 48 | 98% | 5.2 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 3.55 | 3.69 | +9.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 38 | 200 | 813 | 152 | 52 | 20 | 98% | 5.2 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 12.4% | 2.5% | 3.55 | 3.69 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Peterson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.23 | 18.1% | 6.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.36 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 492 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 87 |
| Mat Latos R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 85 |
| David Phelps R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 84 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 84 |
| Tim Atherton R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.73 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 101 | 83 |
| Dallas Beeler R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.54 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 1.4% | .301 | 7.32 | 10.0% | 1.5% | 11 | +3.78 | 3.54 | 122 | 83 |
| David Hale R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 83 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.78 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.9% | .290 | 3.57 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 95 | -1.21 | 2.38 | 434 | 83 |
| Chase Anderson R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.86 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.60 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 451 | +0.74 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 83 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.60 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.67 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.93 | 2.90 | 484 | 82 |
| Dustin Beggs R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.25 | 15.6% | 7.4% | 2.8% | .329 | 5.11 | 11.3% | 3.6% | 48 | +0.86 | 3.46 | 407 | 82 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.21 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 3.1% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 433 | 81 |
| Jeremy Kehrt R 2029 · 3.34 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.34 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 1.6% | .297 | 4.27 | 12.1% | 3.9% | 143 | +0.93 | 3.34 | 262 | 81 |
| Mike Hauschild R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.14 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 1.2% | .312 | 4.42 | 16.4% | 4.8% | 247 | +1.28 | 3.14 | 579 | 81 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.37 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 195 | 81 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.53 | 15.1% | 6.7% | 1.6% | .297 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 6.5% | 81 | +1.00 | 3.53 | 289 | 81 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 81 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.02 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .306 | 4.58 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.56 | 4.02 | 203 | 80 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 80 |
| Asher Wojciechowski R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.21 | 15.7% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.48 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 287 | +0.27 | 3.19 | 678 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 142 | 18.1% | 7.3% | 1.23 | 4.55 |
| Zach Davies ('23) | 9 | 116 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 1.16 | 4.36 |
| Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS | 9 | 125 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 4.25 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Tanner Roark ('20) | 6 | 149 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 1.24 | 4.19 |
| Marco Gonzales ('24) | 8 | 111 | 17.5% | 6.1% | 1.26 | 4.13 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |