Leonel Sequera — OGILVIE

Leonel Sequera P Peoria Chiefs

+1.2 WAR

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 3.3 · 2032

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.7%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%10.0%

IP108

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.3peak

2032

K†4555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	16	ROK	DSL Cardinals	11	11	36	161	42	11	1	17.7%	8.5%	0.8%	3.47	3.14	+0.7
2023	17	ROK	FCL Cardinals	5	5	17	65	15	1	0	15.7%	1.9%	0.0%	2.65	2.02	+0.6
2024	18	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	19	18	79	344	68	28	4	13.9%	9.9%	1.7%	3.76	4.12	+0.9
2025	19	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	24	108	473	99	41	2	15.5%	10.2%	0.6%	4.33	3.40	+2.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A+	Peoria Chiefs	2	2	9	45	9	5	0	—	—	—	6.75	—	—
ROS	20	MLB	STL	20	20	108	456	90	44	11	19.7%	9.6%	2.4%	4.36	4.36	+1.2
2026 Total	20	MLB	STL	—	—	117	501	99	49	11	19.7%	9.8%	2.2%	4.55	4.01	+1.7
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	21	MLB	STL	21	21	113	479	98	43	12	20.5%	9.1%	2.4%	4.27	4.22	+1.4
2028	22	MLB	STL	26	26	141	596	129	51	14	21.6%	8.5%	2.4%	4.13	4.04	+2.0
2029	23	MLB	STL	30	30	166	703	157	57	17	22.3%	8.1%	2.4%	4.02	3.93	+2.6
2030	24	MLB	STL	34	34	187	788	180	62	19	22.9%	7.9%	2.4%	3.92	3.85	+3.1
2031	25	MLB	STL	34	34	189	798	185	62	19	23.2%	7.8%	2.3%	3.84	3.79	+3.2
2032	26	MLB	STL	34	34	189	798	187	62	19	23.4%	7.7%	2.3%	3.80	3.77	+3.3
2033	27	MLB	STL	34	34	188	792	186	61	19	23.5%	7.8%	2.4%	3.79	3.78	+3.2
2034	28	MLB	STL	34	34	185	780	183	61	19	23.4%	7.8%	2.4%	3.80	3.80	+3.1
2035	29	MLB	STL	33	33	180	762	177	60	19	23.3%	7.9%	2.4%	3.83	3.85	+3.0
2036	30	MLB	STL	32	32	175	739	171	59	18	23.1%	8.0%	2.5%	3.88	3.91	+2.8
2037	31	MLB	STL	31	31	169	714	163	58	18	22.9%	8.1%	2.6%	3.94	3.99	+2.5
2038	32	MLB	STL	29	29	162	685	155	56	18	22.6%	8.2%	2.6%	4.02	4.07	+2.3
2039	33	MLB	STL	28	28	155	654	146	55	18	22.3%	8.4%	2.7%	4.11	4.17	+2.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			61	60	250	1088	169	102	10	15.5%	9.4%	0.9%	4.00	3.48	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—			49	48	200	872	135	82	8	15.5%	9.4%	0.9%	4.00	3.48	+4.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leonel Sequera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	19.7%	9.6%	2.4%	—	4.05	21.6%	13.1%	421	-0.31	—	—	—
Jose Almonte R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.0%	9.1%	2.4%	.293	4.01	20.3%	8.0%	139	-0.10	4.01	279	93
Austin Cates R 2028 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP-	3.95	19.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	110	90
Chih-Wei Hu R 2027 · 3.74 FIP	21	SP-	3.74	16.8%	7.3%	2.1%	.319	3.88	17.3%	11.1%	320	+0.14	3.43	497	89
David Festa R 2028 · 3.66 FIP	22	SP-	3.66	19.9%	9.5%	1.9%	.275	3.74	26.6%	17.0%	302	+0.08	3.66	405	89
Nick Davila R 2028 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP-	3.89	18.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.297	4.07	17.3%	11.0%	196	+0.18	3.46	341	89
Ty Langenberg R 2028 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP-	3.53	19.2%	7.6%	2.0%	.325	3.82	16.2%	4.6%	105	+0.29	3.53	213	89
Kyle Scott R 2028 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP-	4.19	17.7%	8.2%	2.8%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.25	3.94	138	88
Chris McMahon R 2028 · 3.96 FIP	22	SP-	3.96	18.9%	7.6%	2.7%	.330	5.28	16.7%	9.2%	85	+1.32	3.96	199	88
Jack Wenninger R 2028 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP-	4.25	20.9%	9.3%	3.2%	.309	3.90	21.4%	13.1%	136	-0.35	3.90	251	88
Carson LaRue R 2027 · 3.83 FIP	21	SP-	3.83	16.0%	7.3%	2.1%	.283	5.05	15.4%	6.3%	224	+1.22	3.83	360	88
Michael Forret R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP-	3.99	21.8%	11.8%	2.2%	.302	2.67	25.1%	16.6%	74	-1.32	2.67	174	88
Pedro Fernandez R 2027 · 3.31 FIP	21	SP-	3.31	18.1%	8.7%	1.1%	.330	3.36	15.9%	8.2%	197	+0.05	3.23	407	88
Zach Jacobs R 2027 · 3.42 FIP	21	SP-	3.42	17.5%	8.6%	1.3%	.315	4.54	18.8%	5.9%	147	+1.12	3.42	238	88
Miguel Almonte R 2028 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	18.0%	10.1%	1.8%	.300	4.42	19.4%	7.9%	143	+0.57	3.05	247	88
Jack Mahoney R 2028 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP-	3.90	17.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.307	4.57	13.9%	3.2%	105	+0.67	3.90	225	88
Trevor Martin R 2028 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP-	4.24	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.28	20.2%	11.6%	172	+0.04	4.19	282	88
Griffin Canning R 2028 · 3.70 FIP	22	SP-	3.70	21.8%	10.0%	2.1%	.312	4.13	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.43	3.65	705	88
Shelby Lackey R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	87
C.J. Culpepper R 2027 · 3.54 FIP	21	SP-	3.54	18.7%	10.1%	1.4%	.291	4.01	18.5%	7.2%	113	+0.47	3.33	199	87
Cedric De Grandpre R 2027 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP-	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.25	21.5%	2.2%	65	+0.87	3.38	151	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+3.1	$28M	+$27M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+3.2	$30M	+$29M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+3.3	$32M	+$31M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+3.2	$31M	+$24M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+3.1	$31M	+$20M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$16M	+3.0	$31M	+$15M
Totals		$37M		$183M	+$146M