Leonel Sequera — OGILVIE

Leonel Sequera P Peoria Chiefs

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.8 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%15.5%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%6.5%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 136 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CMD3060

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$8M
2031	Arb-1	$6M	+1.5	$8M	+$5M
2032	Arb-2	$10M	+1.5	$8M	+$2M
2033	Arb-3	$14M	+1.4	$7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$19M		$45M	+$28M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	16	ROK	DSL Cardinals	11	11	36	161	42	11	1	100%	3.3	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	0.8%	3.47	3.13	—
2022	16	ROK	DSL Cardinals	11	11	36	161	42	11	1	100%	3.3	26.1%	6.8%	19.3%	0.6%	3.47	2.05	—
2023	17	ROK	FCL Cardinals	5	5	17	65	15	1	0	100%	3.4	15.7%	1.9%	13.8%	0.0%	2.65	2.02	—
2023	17	ROK	FCL Cardinals	5	5	17	65	15	1	0	100%	3.4	23.1%	1.5%	21.5%	0.0%	2.65	1.51	—
2024	18	MIX	2 levels	19	18	79	344	68	28	4	95%	4.2	13.9%	9.9%	4.0%	1.7%	3.76	4.12	—
2024	18	MIX	2 levels	19	18	79	344	68	28	4	95%	4.2	19.8%	8.1%	11.6%	1.2%	3.76	3.10	—
2025	19	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	24	108	473	99	41	2	100%	4.5	15.5%	10.2%	5.3%	0.6%	4.33	3.41	—
2025	19	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	24	108	473	99	41	2	100%	4.5	20.9%	8.7%	12.3%	0.4%	4.33	2.65	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A+	Peoria Chiefs	16	16	72	338	81	32	17	100%	4.5	18.5%	10.9%	7.6%	6.3%	7.79	6.37	-1.3
ROS	20	MLB	STL	14	14	65	274	42	25	7	100%	4.6	15.5%	9.0%	6.5%	2.4%	4.64	4.64	+0.0
ROS	20	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.5%	9.0%	6.5%	2.4%	4.64	4.64	—
2026 TOT	20	MLB	STL	—	—	136	612	123	57	24	—	—	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	3.9%	6.29	5.55	-0.2
2026 FULL	20	MLB	STL	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	15.5%	9.0%	6.5%	2.4%	4.64	4.25	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	STL	28	28	134	567	99	47	14	100%	4.8	17.4%	8.3%	9.1%	2.4%	4.47	4.38	+1.6
2028	22	MLB	STL	28	28	141	596	115	45	14	100%	5.0	19.2%	7.6%	11.7%	2.4%	4.26	4.13	+2.1
2029	23	MLB	STL	27	27	146	618	126	44	15	100%	5.4	20.4%	7.1%	13.2%	2.4%	4.09	3.97	+2.4
2030	24	MLB	STL	27	27	150	634	134	44	15	100%	5.6	21.1%	6.9%	14.2%	2.4%	3.96	3.87	+2.7
2031	25	MLB	STL	26	26	152	642	138	44	15	100%	5.8	21.4%	6.8%	14.7%	2.3%	3.87	3.82	+2.8
2032	26	MLB	STL	25	25	152	642	139	43	15	100%	6.1	21.6%	6.7%	14.9%	2.3%	3.82	3.79	+2.9
2033	27	MLB	STL	25	25	150	632	137	43	15	100%	6.0	21.6%	6.8%	14.8%	2.4%	3.83	3.83	+2.7
2034	28	MLB	STL	24	24	145	613	132	43	15	100%	6.0	21.5%	7.0%	14.6%	2.5%	3.88	3.92	+2.5
2035	29	MLB	STL	23	23	139	586	125	42	16	100%	6.0	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	2.6%	3.98	4.05	+2.2
2036	30	MLB	STL	22	22	130	551	115	41	16	100%	5.9	20.9%	7.5%	13.4%	2.8%	4.13	4.23	+1.8
2037	31	MLB	STL	20	20	122	513	105	40	16	100%	6.1	20.5%	7.8%	12.7%	3.1%	4.31	4.43	+1.4
2038	32	MLB	STL	19	19	112	475	95	39	16	100%	5.9	20.1%	8.2%	11.8%	3.3%	4.52	4.65	+1.0
2027	21	MLB	STL	14	14	66	279	49	23	7	100%	4.7	17.4%	8.3%	9.1%	2.4%	4.47	4.38	+0.2
2028	22	MLB	STL	20	20	103	435	84	33	10	100%	5.2	19.2%	7.6%	11.7%	2.4%	4.26	4.13	+1.5
2029	23	MLB	STL	23	23	124	524	107	37	12	100%	5.4	20.4%	7.1%	13.2%	2.4%	4.09	3.97	+2.1
2030	24	MLB	STL	24	24	134	566	119	39	13	100%	5.6	21.1%	6.9%	14.2%	2.4%	3.96	3.87	+2.4
2031	25	MLB	STL	24	24	140	591	127	40	14	100%	5.8	21.4%	6.8%	14.7%	2.3%	3.87	3.82	+2.6
2032	26	MLB	STL	24	24	142	600	130	40	14	100%	5.9	21.6%	6.7%	14.9%	2.3%	3.82	3.79	+2.7
2033	27	MLB	STL	24	24	142	600	130	41	14	100%	5.9	21.6%	6.8%	14.8%	2.4%	3.83	3.83	+2.6
2034	28	MLB	STL	23	23	138	583	125	41	15	100%	6.0	21.5%	7.0%	14.6%	2.5%	3.88	3.92	+2.4
2035	29	MLB	STL	22	22	132	557	119	40	15	100%	6.0	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	2.6%	3.98	4.05	+2.1
2036	30	MLB	STL	21	21	124	524	110	39	15	100%	5.9	20.9%	7.5%	13.4%	2.8%	4.13	4.23	+1.7
2037	31	MLB	STL	19	19	116	490	101	38	15	100%	6.1	20.5%	7.8%	12.7%	3.1%	4.31	4.43	+1.3
2038	32	MLB	STL	18	18	107	452	91	37	15	100%	5.9	20.1%	8.2%	11.8%	3.3%	4.52	4.65	+0.9
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			255	255	1467	6192	1288	449	159	100%	5.8	20.8%	7.3%	13.5%	2.6%	4.05	3.67	+29.6
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	176	61	22	100%	5.8	20.8%	7.3%	13.5%	2.6%	4.05	3.67	+4.0
Career	—			75	74	312	1381	222	134	31	99%	4.2	16.1%	9.7%	6.4%	2.3%	4.79	4.21	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—			48	47	200	885	142	86	20	99%	4.2	16.1%	9.7%	6.4%	2.3%	4.79	4.21	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leonel Sequera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	15.5%	9.0%	2.4%	—	4.15	19.1%	11.4%	422	-0.49	—	—	—
Jose Almonte R 2026 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.0%	9.1%	2.4%	.293	3.97	20.3%	8.0%	139	-0.17	3.97	279	87
Trevor Clifton R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP	4.19	16.5%	12.0%	1.8%	.276	3.89	17.3%	7.1%	345	-0.30	2.95	588	86
Cameron Wagoner R 2028 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	14.8%	9.6%	1.8%	.326	3.24	29.8%	23.6%	27	-0.83	3.24	127	85
Kevin Guzman R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	20	SP	4.29	13.5%	8.9%	2.2%	.343	2.98	17.3%	9.4%	28	-1.31	2.98	130	85
Alex Royalty R 2028 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	14.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.302	4.74	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.40	4.34	151	85
Jake Wong R 2028 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP	4.06	16.5%	8.7%	2.3%	.293	3.86	19.5%	7.6%	98	-0.20	3.86	278	85
Ty Cummings R 2028 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	19.0%	10.5%	2.4%	.329	5.29	14.4%	5.8%	150	+1.15	4.14	267	84
Fernando Perez R 2027 · 4.39 FIP	21	SP	4.39	11.9%	8.4%	2.2%	.333	3.86	16.2%	5.5%	202	-0.53	2.76	303	83
Brett Wichrowski R 2027 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	17.0%	11.2%	1.7%	.267	4.96	15.7%	4.7%	161	+0.96	3.95	250	83
Jordan Jackson R 2029 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	16.8%	9.7%	2.4%	.323	5.46	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.22	4.24	193	83
Nick Travieso R 2027 · 3.59 FIP	21	SP	3.59	14.8%	8.7%	1.2%	.274	4.97	14.5%	3.3%	117	+1.38	3.59	211	83
Brandon Birdsell R 2029 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP	3.78	17.1%	8.3%	2.0%	.266	4.26	19.9%	13.7%	154	+0.48	3.78	262	83
Shelby Lackey R 2028 · 4.18 FIP	22	SP	4.18	18.2%	10.0%	2.5%	.323	3.85	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.33	2.82	175	83
Nick Krauth R 2027 · 4.74 FIP	21	SP	4.74	13.3%	7.5%	3.3%	.287	4.61	13.0%	3.2%	295	-0.13	4.44	424	83
Drew Beam R 2028 · 3.64 FIP	22	SP	3.64	15.8%	6.4%	1.9%	.307	5.29	15.1%	6.5%	77	+1.65	3.64	209	83
Sal Romano R 2027 · 3.91 FIP	21	SP	3.91	12.4%	9.3%	1.2%	.323	3.88	17.1%	9.9%	438	-0.03	3.48	731	83
Connor Staine R 2028 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP	3.71	16.5%	7.9%	1.8%	.343	5.03	17.5%	4.4%	276	+1.32	3.71	370	83
Jonathan Cannon R 2029 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP	4.71	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.59	17.5%	8.7%	364	-0.12	4.33	485	83
Keynan Middleton R 2027 · 4.43 FIP	21	SP	4.43	11.9%	10.1%	1.9%	.333	4.50	24.4%	15.0%	155	+0.07	3.43	438	83
Matthias Dietz R 2027 · 4.60 FIP	21	SP	4.60	11.8%	10.2%	2.2%	.322	5.34	14.8%	-6.3%	139	+0.74	4.32	284	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	13	139	20.3%	7.4%	0.99	4.12
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Dallas Keuchel ('23)	9	132	18.7%	7.3%	0.96	3.97
Adam Wainwright ('23) AS×3GG×2SS	9	125	18.6%	7.3%	1.03	4.25
Alex Wood ('24)	9	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	9	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36