Leonel Sequera — OGILVIE

Leonel Sequera P Peoria Chiefs

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.1 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION80 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%15.5%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%6.4%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$45M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CMD3060

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$9M	+$8M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2031	Arb-1	$6M	+1.8	$10M	+$6M
2032	Arb-2	$10M	+1.9	$10M	+$4M
2033	Arb-3	$14M	+1.8	$8M	+$2M
Totals		$33M		$49M	+$32M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	11	11	36	161	42	11	1	100%	3.3	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	0.8%	3.47	3.14	—
2022	16	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	11	11	36	161	42	11	1	100%	3.3	26.1%	6.8%	19.3%	0.6%	3.47	2.05	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	5	5	17	65	15	1	0	100%	3.4	15.7%	1.9%	13.8%	0.0%	2.65	2.02	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	5	5	17	65	15	1	0	100%	3.4	15.7%	1.9%	13.8%	0.0%	2.65	2.02	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	5	5	17	65	15	1	0	100%	3.4	23.1%	1.5%	21.5%	0.0%	2.65	1.51	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	79	344	68	28	4	95%	4.2	13.9%	9.9%	4.0%	1.7%	3.76	4.10	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	79	344	68	28	4	95%	4.2	13.9%	9.9%	4.0%	1.7%	3.76	4.10	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	79	344	68	28	4	95%	4.2	19.8%	8.1%	11.6%	1.2%	3.76	3.10	—
2025	19	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	24	108	473	99	41	2	100%	4.5	15.5%	10.2%	5.3%	0.6%	4.33	3.40	—
2025	19	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	24	108	473	99	41	2	100%	4.5	15.5%	10.2%	5.3%	0.6%	4.33	3.40	—
2025	19	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	24	108	473	99	41	2	100%	4.5	20.9%	8.7%	12.3%	0.4%	4.33	2.65	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	18	18	80	374	89	38	17	100%	4.4	18.3%	11.7%	6.6%	5.7%	7.23	6.15	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	18	18	80	374	89	38	17	100%	4.4	18.3%	11.7%	6.6%	5.7%	7.23	6.15	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A+ RAW	STL	18	18	80	374	89	38	17	100%	4.4	23.8%	10.2%	13.6%	4.5%	7.23	4.87	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	STL	2	2	11	46	7	4	1	100%	5.4	15.5%	9.1%	6.4%	2.4%	4.65	4.65	+0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	90	420	96	42	18	—	—	22.9%	10.0%	12.8%	4.3%	6.92	5.97	-1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	STL	28	28	134	567	99	47	14	100%	4.8	17.4%	8.3%	9.1%	2.4%	4.48	4.39	+0.8
2028	22	MLB MLE	STL	28	28	141	596	115	45	14	100%	5.0	19.2%	7.6%	11.6%	2.4%	4.27	4.13	+1.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	STL	27	27	146	618	126	44	15	100%	5.4	20.4%	7.2%	13.2%	2.4%	4.10	3.97	+1.6
2030	24	MLB MLE	STL	27	27	150	634	134	44	15	100%	5.6	21.1%	6.9%	14.1%	2.4%	3.97	3.88	+1.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	STL	26	26	152	642	138	44	15	100%	5.8	21.4%	6.8%	14.6%	2.3%	3.88	3.82	+2.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	152	642	139	43	15	100%	6.1	21.6%	6.8%	14.9%	2.3%	3.83	3.80	+2.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	150	632	137	43	15	100%	6.0	21.6%	6.8%	14.8%	2.4%	3.83	3.84	+1.9
2034	28	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	145	613	132	43	15	100%	6.0	21.5%	7.0%	14.5%	2.5%	3.88	3.92	+1.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	STL	23	23	139	586	125	42	16	100%	6.0	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	2.6%	3.98	4.05	+1.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	STL	22	22	130	551	115	41	16	100%	5.9	20.9%	7.5%	13.4%	2.8%	4.13	4.23	+1.0
2037	31	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	122	513	105	40	16	100%	6.1	20.5%	7.9%	12.7%	3.1%	4.31	4.43	+0.7
2038	32	MLB MLE	STL	19	19	112	475	95	39	16	100%	5.9	20.1%	8.3%	11.8%	3.3%	4.52	4.66	+0.3
2039	33	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	103	436	85	38	16	100%	6.1	19.6%	8.7%	10.9%	3.6%	4.75	4.91	-0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	66	279	49	23	6	100%	4.7	17.4%	8.3%	9.1%	2.2%	4.39	4.30	+0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	103	435	84	33	10	100%	5.2	19.2%	7.6%	11.6%	2.2%	4.18	4.04	+0.9
2029	23	MLB CTX	STL	23	23	124	524	107	38	12	100%	5.4	20.4%	7.2%	13.2%	2.2%	4.01	3.88	+1.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	STL	24	24	134	566	119	39	12	100%	5.6	21.1%	6.9%	14.1%	2.2%	3.88	3.79	+1.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	STL	24	24	140	591	127	40	13	100%	5.8	21.4%	6.8%	14.6%	2.2%	3.79	3.73	+1.8
2032	26	MLB CTX	STL	24	24	142	600	130	41	13	100%	5.9	21.6%	6.8%	14.9%	2.2%	3.74	3.71	+1.9
2033	27	MLB CTX	STL	24	24	142	600	130	41	13	100%	5.9	21.6%	6.8%	14.8%	2.2%	3.74	3.75	+1.8
2034	28	MLB CTX	STL	23	23	138	583	125	41	14	100%	6.0	21.5%	7.0%	14.5%	2.3%	3.78	3.82	+1.6
2035	29	MLB CTX	STL	22	22	132	557	119	40	14	100%	6.0	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	2.5%	3.88	3.95	+1.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	STL	21	21	124	524	110	39	14	100%	5.9	20.9%	7.5%	13.4%	2.6%	4.02	4.12	+1.0
2037	31	MLB CTX	STL	19	19	116	490	101	39	14	100%	6.1	20.5%	7.9%	12.7%	2.9%	4.19	4.31	+0.6
2038	32	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	107	452	91	37	14	100%	5.9	20.1%	8.3%	11.8%	3.1%	4.39	4.53	+0.3
2039	33	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	98	414	81	36	14	100%	6.1	19.6%	8.7%	10.9%	3.3%	4.61	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		271	271	1564	6605	1369	487	162	100%	5.8	20.7%	7.4%	13.4%	2.5%	4.00	3.63	+24.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	175	62	21	100%	5.8	20.7%	7.4%	13.4%	2.5%	4.00	3.63	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		77	76	320	1417	228	141	31	99%	4.2	16.1%	10.0%	6.2%	2.2%	4.72	4.20	+16.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	48	200	886	143	88	19	99%	4.2	16.1%	10.0%	6.2%	2.2%	4.72	4.20	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leonel Sequera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	15.5%	9.1%	2.4%	—	4.16	19.1%	11.3%	422	-0.49	—	—	—
Jose Almonte R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP	4.11	17.0%	9.1%	2.4%	.293	4.01	20.3%	8.0%	139	-0.10	4.01	279	87
Trevor Clifton R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	20	SP	4.25	16.5%	12.0%	1.9%	.276	3.82	17.3%	7.1%	345	-0.43	3.03	588	86
Victor Lizarraga R 2023 · 4.07 FIP	19	SP	4.07	14.8%	9.6%	1.8%	.277	5.04	17.1%	3.7%	271	+0.97	3.82	490	85
Cameron Wagoner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	14.8%	9.6%	1.9%	.326	2.86	27.7%	21.2%	39	-1.24	2.86	139	85
Alex Royalty R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	14.9%	11.6%	1.8%	.302	4.50	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.17	4.33	151	85
Kevin Guzman R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	20	SP	4.16	13.5%	8.9%	2.0%	.343	3.07	17.3%	9.4%	28	-1.09	3.07	130	84
Jake Wong R 2019 · 4.03 FIP	22	SP	4.03	16.5%	8.7%	2.2%	.293	3.96	19.5%	7.6%	98	-0.07	3.96	278	84
Jordan Kipper R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	22	SP	4.78	13.0%	8.0%	3.2%	.324	4.29	10.7%	3.8%	304	-0.49	3.97	432	84
Fernando Perez R 2015 · 4.33 FIP	21	SP	4.33	11.9%	8.4%	2.1%	.333	3.73	16.2%	5.5%	202	-0.60	2.81	303	83
Nick Travieso R 2015 · 3.62 FIP	21	SP	3.62	14.8%	8.7%	1.2%	.274	4.84	14.5%	3.3%	117	+1.22	3.62	211	83
Jordan Jackson R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	16.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	5.51	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.36	4.15	193	83
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	83
Keynan Middleton R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP	4.75	11.9%	10.1%	2.5%	.333	4.29	24.4%	15.0%	155	-0.46	3.38	438	83
Sal Romano R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	21	SP	3.94	12.4%	9.3%	1.3%	.323	3.83	17.1%	9.9%	438	-0.11	3.39	731	83
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	83
Nick Krauth R 2021 · 4.73 FIP	21	SP	4.73	13.3%	7.5%	3.3%	.287	4.67	13.0%	3.2%	295	-0.06	4.50	424	83
Victor Alcántara R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	15.7%	10.9%	2.3%	.337	4.10	16.3%	5.6%	267	-0.30	3.50	464	82
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	82
Blaine Knight R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	14.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.263	4.63	16.2%	6.6%	159	+0.05	4.31	269	82
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.5	136	20.2%	7.5%	1.01	4.16
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01