Leonel Sequera

P Peoria Chiefs

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#325ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	MIX2 levels	19	18	79	3.76	3.10	19.8%	8.1%	—	K 13.9% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.10
2025	19	ASTL	24	24	108	4.33	2.65	20.9%	8.7%	—	K 15.5% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.40
2026	20	A+STL	18	18	80	7.23	5.07	23.8%	10.2%	—	K 18.3% · BB 11.7% · FIP 6.15
2027PROJ	21	MLBSTL	1	1	1	5.12	5.12	17.4%	10.1%	0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB	22	MLBSTL	9	9	45	4.74	4.63	19.3%	8.8%	0.3
2029PROJ57% MLB	23	MLBSTL	14	14	73	4.52	4.40	20.5%	8.1%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$3M2032Arb-2$5M2033Arb-3$6M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 13, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 82%

CompsTy Cummings (age 22) · Josh Bostick (age 22) · Jamison Hill (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%17.4%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP128

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$26M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2031	Arb-1	$3M	+1.0	$6M	+$4M
2032	Arb-2	$5M	+1.1	$6M	+$3M
2033	Arb-3	$6M	+1.1	$6M	+$2M
Totals		$16M		$28M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	11	11	36	161	42	11	1	100%	3.3	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	0.8%	3.47	3.14	—
2022	16	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	11	11	36	161	42	11	1	100%	3.3	26.1%	6.8%	19.3%	0.6%	3.47	2.05	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	5	5	17	65	15	1	0	100%	3.4	15.7%	1.9%	13.8%	0.0%	2.65	2.02	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	5	5	17	65	15	1	0	100%	3.4	23.1%	1.5%	21.5%	0.0%	2.65	1.51	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	79	344	68	28	4	95%	4.2	13.9%	9.9%	4.0%	1.7%	3.76	4.10	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	79	344	68	28	4	95%	4.2	13.9%	9.9%	4.0%	1.7%	3.76	4.10	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	79	344	68	28	4	95%	4.2	19.8%	8.1%	11.6%	1.2%	3.76	3.10	—
2025	19	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	24	108	473	99	41	2	100%	4.5	15.5%	10.2%	5.3%	0.6%	4.33	3.40	—
2025	19	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	24	108	473	99	41	2	100%	4.5	15.5%	10.2%	5.3%	0.6%	4.33	3.40	—
2025	19	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	24	24	108	473	99	41	2	100%	4.5	20.9%	8.7%	12.3%	0.4%	4.33	2.65	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	18	18	80	374	89	38	17	100%	4.4	18.3%	11.7%	6.6%	5.7%	7.23	6.15	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	18	18	80	374	89	38	17	100%	4.4	18.3%	11.7%	6.6%	5.7%	7.23	6.15	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	18	18	80	374	89	38	17	100%	4.4	23.8%	10.2%	13.6%	4.5%	7.23	5.07	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	STL	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	17.4%	10.1%	7.3%	3.3%	5.12	5.12	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	128	540	104	48	17	100%	5.1	19.3%	8.8%	10.5%	3.2%	4.86	4.75	+1.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	128	540	111	44	17	100%	5.3	20.5%	8.1%	12.4%	3.2%	4.64	4.52	+1.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	STL	23	23	128	540	115	41	17	100%	5.6	21.2%	7.6%	13.6%	3.1%	4.48	4.38	+1.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	100	421	91	31	13	100%	5.9	21.6%	7.4%	14.2%	3.1%	4.37	4.30	+1.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	100	422	92	31	13	100%	5.9	21.8%	7.3%	14.5%	3.1%	4.32	4.28	+1.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	98	412	90	31	13	100%	6.1	21.8%	7.4%	14.4%	3.2%	4.32	4.32	+1.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	STL	16	16	93	393	85	30	13	100%	5.8	21.7%	7.6%	14.1%	3.3%	4.37	4.40	+1.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	87	366	78	29	12	100%	6.2	21.4%	7.8%	13.6%	3.4%	4.47	4.53	+0.9
2036	30	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	79	332	70	27	12	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.1%	13.0%	3.6%	4.61	4.71	+0.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	70	297	61	25	11	100%	5.9	20.7%	8.5%	12.2%	3.8%	4.79	4.91	+0.4
2038	32	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	62	264	53	23	11	100%	6.2	20.2%	8.8%	11.4%	4.1%	5.00	5.14	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	STL	9	9	45	190	37	17	6	100%	5.0	19.3%	8.8%	10.5%	3.0%	4.74	4.63	+0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	73	308	63	25	9	100%	5.2	20.5%	8.1%	12.4%	3.0%	4.52	4.40	+0.7
2030	24	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	89	376	80	29	11	100%	5.6	21.2%	7.6%	13.6%	2.9%	4.36	4.26	+1.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	77	325	70	24	9	100%	5.9	21.6%	7.4%	14.2%	2.9%	4.25	4.18	+1.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	83	350	76	26	10	100%	5.9	21.8%	7.3%	14.5%	2.9%	4.20	4.16	+1.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	84	355	77	26	10	100%	6.0	21.8%	7.4%	14.4%	2.9%	4.20	4.20	+1.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	83	350	76	27	11	100%	5.9	21.7%	7.6%	14.1%	3.0%	4.24	4.27	+1.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	STL	13	13	78	329	71	26	10	100%	6.0	21.4%	7.8%	13.6%	3.2%	4.34	4.40	+0.8
2036	30	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	72	304	64	25	10	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.1%	13.0%	3.4%	4.47	4.57	+0.6
2037	31	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	65	274	57	23	10	100%	5.9	20.7%	8.5%	12.2%	3.6%	4.64	4.76	+0.4
2038	32	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	58	245	50	22	9	100%	5.8	20.2%	8.8%	11.4%	3.8%	4.84	4.98	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		139	139	807	3406	720	268	106	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.9%	13.3%	3.1%	4.40	4.02	+13.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	178	66	26	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.9%	13.3%	3.1%	4.40	4.02	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		77	76	320	1417	228	141	31	99%	4.2	16.1%	10.0%	6.2%	2.2%	4.72	4.20	+10.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	48	200	886	143	88	19	99%	4.2	16.1%	10.0%	6.2%	2.2%	4.72	4.20	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 80 IPFIP 4.87 → 6.15 (+1.28)K% 23.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.80%	—	×0.770	18.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.16%	—	×1.150	11.68%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.68%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.87 → 6.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 108 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.40 (+0.74)K% 20.9% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.93%	—	×0.740	15.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.67%	—	×1.180	10.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.42%	÷0.973	×1.300	0.56%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Cardinals · 41 IPFIP 3.28 → 4.63 (+1.35)K% 22.6% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.63%	—	×0.680	15.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.37%	—	×1.250	9.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷0.975	×1.400	3.02%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 APalm Beach Cardinals · 38 IPFIP 2.88 → 3.44 (+0.56)K% 16.2% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.23%	—	×0.740	12.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.180	10.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.036	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.88 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Cardinals · 17 IPFIP 1.35 → 2.02 (+0.67)K% 23.1% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.680	15.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.54%	—	×1.250	1.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.35 → 2.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Cardinals · 36 IPFIP 2.10 → 3.14 (+1.04)K% 26.1% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.680	17.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.83%	—	×1.250	8.54%
HR / BF /BF	0.62%	÷1.039	×1.400	0.84%

Result: FIP 2.10 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leonel Sequera (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.55	20.3%	12.1%	384	-0.57	—	—	—
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	89
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	88
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	87
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.71	18.0%	10.2%	420	-0.03	4.32	541	86
Josh Grosz R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	5.07	21.5%	8.5%	183	+0.24	4.75	301	86
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	86
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	86
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	86
Aaron Davenport R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SP	4.81	20.0%	13.2%	3.2%	.280	4.94	16.9%	5.6%	391	+0.13	4.04	498	85
Jordan Jackson R 2022 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP	4.15	16.8%	9.7%	2.2%	.323	5.51	13.1%	1.7%	74	+1.36	4.15	193	85
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	84
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	84
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	84
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	84
Mason Hickman R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP	4.69	20.2%	10.2%	3.7%	.288	5.36	23.9%	11.1%	181	+0.67	4.69	300	84
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.19	20.3%	11.0%	243	-0.06	3.94	353	84
Thomas Farr R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP	5.05	18.0%	9.8%	4.1%	.340	5.31	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.26	5.05	423	84
Trenton Denholm R 2022 · 4.24 FIP	22	SP	4.24	18.3%	10.9%	2.4%	.368	4.07	16.5%	10.2%	352	-0.17	3.37	579	83
Trent Baker R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	23	SP	4.05	19.3%	10.7%	2.2%	.315	4.06	18.1%	9.6%	296	+0.01	3.86	496	83
Jake Wong R 2019 · 4.03 FIP	22	SP	4.03	16.5%	8.7%	2.2%	.293	3.96	19.5%	7.6%	98	-0.07	3.96	278	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.0	100	20.6%	8.2%	1.29	4.61
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Dan Schatzeder ('77-'91, 8 WAR*)	6.6	94	18.8%*	8.5%*	1.28*	4.25*
Derek Holland ('21)	7.3	113	19.7%	8.4%	1.35	4.62
Don Robinson ('78-'92, 16 WAR*)	9.8	131	20.5%*	7.8%*	1.26*	4.41*
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Carlos Villanueva ('16)	5.0	91	20.4%	7.6%	1.25	4.31