Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 23 | 119 | 518 | 116 | 43 | 9 | 88% | 4.6 | 16.8% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 4.08 | 4.24 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 23 | 119 | 518 | 116 | 43 | 9 | 88% | 4.6 | 22.4% | 8.3% | 14.1% | 1.7% | 4.08 | 3.22 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 12 | 11 | 32 | 154 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 92% | 2.7 | 12.5% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 6.75 | 5.01 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 12 | 11 | 32 | 154 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 92% | 2.7 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 6.75 | 4.38 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 33% | 0.4 | 36.4% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 27.00 | 2.33 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 33% | 0.4 | 36.4% | 18.2% | 18.2% | 0.0% | 27.00 | 1.60 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 31 | 0 | 42 | 200 | 35 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 13.5% | 12.7% | 0.8% | 4.1% | 6.86 | 5.80 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 31 | 0 | 42 | 200 | 35 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 6.86 | 5.17 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 30 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.1% | 14.0% | -1.9% | 3.2% | 5.96 | 5.96 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 32 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.1% | 13.6% | -0.5% | 3.2% | 5.85 | 5.88 | -0.9 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 32 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.6% | 13.5% | 0.1% | 3.4% | 5.83 | 5.89 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 12 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.1% | 13.6% | -0.5% | 3.2% | 5.85 | 5.88 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 17 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.6% | 13.5% | 0.1% | 3.4% | 5.83 | 5.89 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 0 | 51 | 217 | 29 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.4% | 13.6% | -0.2% | 3.3% | 5.84 | 5.51 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 113 | 113 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.4% | 13.6% | -0.2% | 3.3% | 5.84 | 5.51 | -0.3 | ||
| Career | — | 72 | 35 | 194 | 883 | 137 | 92 | 26 | 49% | 2.7 | 15.5% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 5.28 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 36 | 200 | 909 | 141 | 95 | 26 | 49% | 2.7 | 15.5% | 10.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 5.28 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jordan Jackson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.96 | 12.1% | 14.0% | 3.2% | — | 5.88 | 13.4% | -0.2% | 113 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Alex Caldera R 2028 · 5.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.56 | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.61 | 11.9% | 0.8% | 84 | -0.95 | 4.61 | 120 | 85 |
| Paul Clemens R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 85 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 81 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2026 · 6.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.66 | 12.4% | 14.8% | 5.0% | .314 | 4.38 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 70 | -2.28 | 3.26 | 118 | 80 |
| Jordan Geber R 2026 · 6.11 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.11 | 14.2% | 18.0% | 3.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 239 | 76 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 76 |
| Colby Morris R 2024 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 75 |
| Chris Jensen R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.29 | 12.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 488 | 75 |
| Robbie Peto R 2024 · 5.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.71 | 15.3% | 13.4% | 4.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.38 | 232 | 75 |
| Brad Allen R 2026 · 6.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.07 | 14.7% | 13.2% | 4.6% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 149 | 75 |
| Victor Mateo R 2026 · 5.32 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.32 | 10.2% | 12.2% | 2.8% | .370 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.51 | 199 | 74 |
| Clate Schmidt R 2024 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.61 | 13.5% | 13.9% | 3.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 160 | 74 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.81 | 11.8% | 11.3% | 2.3% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 160 | 73 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2024 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 73 |
| Julian Arballo R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 72 |
| Oscar Verdugo R 2026 · 6.69 FIP | 27 | SU | 6.69 | 10.3% | 13.8% | 4.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.39 | 144 | 72 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2024 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 71 |
| Endrys Briceno R 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.83 | 14.0% | 13.2% | 2.2% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 303 | 71 |
| Yordy Cabrera R 2025 · 4.95 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.95 | 12.2% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .335 | 3.48 | 15.7% | 6.8% | 61 | -1.47 | 3.48 | 159 | 71 |
| Luis Niebla R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 11.6% | 13.2% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 156 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 57 | 12.9% | 13.7% | 1.26 | 5.88 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |