Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 75% | 1.8 | 15.4% | 11.5% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 1.23 | 3.26 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 75% | 1.8 | 15.4% | 11.5% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 1.23 | 3.24 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 121 | 517 | 106 | 39 | 15 | 100% | 4.8 | 16.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 4.46 | 4.71 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 121 | 517 | 106 | 39 | 15 | 100% | 4.8 | 20.5% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 3.93 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 29 | 162 | 690 | 126 | 58 | 21 | 94% | 5.2 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.33 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 29 | 162 | 690 | 126 | 58 | 21 | 94% | 5.2 | 18.3% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.30 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 24 | 135 | 610 | 107 | 51 | 24 | 83% | 4.7 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 5.72 | 4.68 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 24 | 135 | 610 | 107 | 51 | 24 | 83% | 4.7 | 17.5% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 5.72 | 4.95 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 16 | 12 | 67 | 317 | 64 | 34 | 11 | 75% | 4.2 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 5.64 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 72 | 306 | 53 | 27 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 29 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 139 | 623 | 117 | 61 | 21 | — | — | 18.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 5.29 | 5.00 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 40 | 168 | 93 | 49 | 17 | — | — | 55.4% | 29.0% | 26.5% | 9.9% | 14.47 | 7.55 | -1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 83 | 42 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 5.00 | 5.02 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 82 | 43 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 5.07 | 5.11 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 108 | 455 | 76 | 42 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 5.19 | 5.27 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 13 | 13 | 79 | 334 | 58 | 29 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 5.00 | 5.02 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 65 | 34 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 5.07 | 5.11 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 15 | 91 | 384 | 64 | 35 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 5.19 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 97 | 89 | 528 | 2259 | 394 | 194 | 82 | 92% | 5.4 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 5.10 | 4.71 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 34 | 200 | 855 | 149 | 73 | 31 | 92% | 5.5 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 5.10 | 4.71 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 105 | 93 | 493 | 2160 | 370 | 191 | 72 | 89% | 4.7 | 17.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 5.01 | 4.61 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 38 | 200 | 877 | 150 | 77 | 29 | 89% | 4.7 | 17.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 5.01 | 4.61 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jonathan Cannon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.99 | 17.3% | 8.7% | 3.4% | — | 5.13 | 17.1% | 8.1% | 334 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 74 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 73 |
| David Phelps R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 72 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 71 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.60 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.67 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.93 | 2.90 | 484 | 71 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 71 |
| David Hale R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 71 |
| Allen Webster R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.50 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.51 | 4.43 | 177 | 71 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.78 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.9% | .290 | 3.57 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 95 | -1.21 | 2.38 | 434 | 71 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .344 | 5.06 | 12.9% | 4.7% | 173 | -0.19 | 4.25 | 412 | 71 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 70 |
| Connor Noland R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.97 | 17.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | 5.51 | 12.7% | 2.9% | 48 | +1.54 | 3.78 | 423 | 70 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 70 |
| Tyler Cravy R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.08 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.3% | .305 | 4.72 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 138 | +0.64 | 4.01 | 276 | 70 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .297 | 3.33 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.90 | 2.82 | 536 | 70 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 69 |
| Asher Wojciechowski R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.21 | 15.7% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.48 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 287 | +0.27 | 3.19 | 678 | 69 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 69 |
| Josh DeGraaf R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.58 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 320 | 69 |
| Luke Irvine R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 102 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 1.37 | 5.06 |
| Sal Romano ('21) | 3 | 86 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 1.29 | 5.10 |
| Drew Hutchison ('22) | 5 | 69 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 1.39 | 5.16 |
| Andrew Suárez ('23) | 3 | 74 | 18.2% | 7.8% | 1.51 | 5.02 |
| Luis Perdomo ('22) | 5 | 90 | 16.6% | 7.8% | 1.08 | 5.09 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Chad Bettis ('19) | 5 | 106 | 16.7% | 7.8% | 1.17 | 4.90 |