Jonathan Cannon

P Charlotte Knights

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	31	29	162	4.72	4.30	18.3%	8.4%	2.1	K 17.6% · BB 8.1% · FIP 4.32
2025	25	MIX2 levels	29	24	135	5.72	4.95	17.5%	8.4%	0.7	K 17.1% · BB 8.1% · FIP 4.74
2026	26	MIX2 levels	27	20	125	4.88	4.85	22.6%	8.7%	0.8	K 19.5% · BB 7.2% · FIP 5.20
2027PROJ	27	MLBCWS	17	17	101	5.10	5.16	18.2%	8.1%	0.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBCWS	11	11	66	5.19	5.25	18.0%	8.2%	0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBCWS	8	8	48	5.32	5.41	17.4%	8.5%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo40

K%25

xwOBA vs15

CompsClay Condrey (age 27) · Ramon Ramirez (age 25) · Travis Smith (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.10

FIP5.16

K%18.2%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%10.1%

Proj IP101

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 101 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p2221.4%

p2518.5%

xwOBA vs

p150.354

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	3	7	26	4	3	0	75%	1.8	15.4%	11.5%	3.8%	0.0%	1.23	3.26	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	3	7	26	4	3	0	75%	1.8	15.4%	11.5%	3.8%	0.0%	1.23	3.24	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	121	517	106	39	15	100%	4.8	16.1%	8.5%	7.6%	3.5%	4.46	4.74	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	121	517	106	39	15	100%	4.8	20.5%	7.5%	13.0%	2.9%	4.46	3.93	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	29	162	690	126	58	21	94%	5.2	17.6%	8.1%	9.4%	3.0%	4.72	4.32	+2.1
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	29	162	690	126	58	21	94%	5.2	17.6%	8.1%	9.4%	3.0%	4.72	4.32	+2.1
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	29	162	690	126	58	21	94%	5.2	18.3%	8.4%	9.9%	3.0%	4.72	4.30	+2.1
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	24	135	610	107	51	24	83%	4.7	17.1%	8.1%	8.9%	3.7%	5.72	4.74	+1.0
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	24	135	610	107	51	24	83%	4.7	17.1%	8.1%	8.9%	3.7%	5.72	4.74	+1.0
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	24	135	610	107	51	24	83%	4.7	17.5%	8.4%	9.2%	3.9%	5.72	4.95	+0.7
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	125	553	125	48	25	74%	4.6	19.5%	7.2%	12.2%	5.1%	4.88	5.20	+0.3
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	20	125	553	125	48	25	74%	4.6	19.5%	7.2%	12.2%	5.1%	4.88	5.20	+0.3
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	20	125	553	125	48	25	74%	4.6	22.6%	8.7%	13.9%	4.5%	4.88	4.85	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			47	38	231	1006	181	82	37	81%	4.9	18.0%	8.2%	9.8%	3.7%	5.14	4.68	+1.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CWS	17	17	101	426	77	34	17	100%	5.9	18.2%	8.1%	10.1%	4.0%	5.10	5.16	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	12	12	70	295	53	24	12	100%	5.8	18.0%	8.2%	9.8%	4.1%	5.19	5.25	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	8	8	51	214	37	18	9	100%	6.3	17.4%	8.5%	9.0%	4.2%	5.32	5.41	-0.0
2030	30	MLB MLE	CWS	6	6	38	160	27	14	7	100%	6.3	16.8%	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	5.50	5.62	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	66	279	50	23	11	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.2%	9.8%	4.1%	5.19	5.25	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	48	203	35	17	9	100%	6.0	17.4%	8.5%	9.0%	4.2%	5.32	5.41	-0.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	CWS	6	6	36	152	25	13	7	100%	6.0	16.8%	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	5.50	5.62	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	63	381	1641	292	135	64	88%	5.3	17.8%	8.3%	9.6%	3.9%	5.21	4.78	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	33	200	861	153	71	34	88%	5.3	17.8%	8.3%	9.6%	3.9%	5.21	4.78	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		116	101	551	2396	420	193	90	87%	4.8	17.5%	8.1%	9.5%	3.8%	4.90	4.71	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	37	200	870	152	70	33	87%	4.8	17.5%	8.1%	9.5%	3.8%	4.90	4.71	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 122 IPFIP 4.77 → 5.20 (+0.42)K% 22.6% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.62%	—	×0.860	19.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.04%	—	×0.900	7.23%
HR / BF /BF	4.67%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.14%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.77 → 5.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 32 IPFIP 5.01 → 4.74 (−0.27)K% 14.6% → 12.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.58%	—	×0.860	12.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.72%	—	×0.900	8.75%
HR / BF /BF	3.47%	÷1.320	×1.100	2.89%

Result: FIP 5.01 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 38 IPFIP 3.68 → 3.87 (+0.19)K% 20.8% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.83%	—	×0.860	17.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×0.900	9.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷1.016	×1.100	1.93%

Result: FIP 3.68 → 3.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 73 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.42 (+0.90)K% 22.9% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.95%	—	×0.770	17.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.22%	—	×1.150	9.45%
HR / BF /BF	2.40%	÷1.017	×1.250	2.95%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABirmingham Barons · 48 IPFIP 4.43 → 5.16 (+0.72)K% 17.3% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.33%	—	×0.810	14.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.100	7.33%
HR / BF /BF	3.56%	÷1.013	×1.200	4.21%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 4.43 → 5.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 6 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.61 (+0.51)K% 13.6% → 10.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.64%	—	×0.740	10.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.180	10.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.172	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 134).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonathan Cannon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.16	18.2%	8.1%	4.0%	—	5.39	17.5%	9.1%	158	+0.23	—	—	—
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	67
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	66
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	65
Jason Dickson R 2000 · 4.79 FIP	27	SP	4.79	14.4%	5.6%	4.0%	.358	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	397	65
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	64
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	64
Mickey Callaway R 2002 · 4.22 FIP	27	SP	4.22	15.6%	7.5%	2.7%	.248	4.41	14.6%	5.8%	72	+0.19	4.22	126	63
J.D. Martin R 2010 · 4.79 FIP	27	SP	4.79	14.6%	4.7%	4.2%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	414	63
Chris Bassitt R 2016 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP	5.24	17.3%	10.5%	4.1%	.330	3.86	21.1%	13.0%	324	-1.38	2.92	1,596	63
Chase Whitley R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	27	SP-	4.10	19.5%	7.0%	3.2%	.217	3.22	18.0%	11.8%	81	-0.88	3.09	235	63
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	63
Adrian Houser R 2020 · 4.37 FIP	27	SP	4.37	17.9%	8.5%	3.1%	.318	3.96	17.6%	8.3%	371	-0.41	3.45	1,221	62
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	62
Fernando Nieve R 2009 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	14.3%	11.2%	2.5%	.276	5.71	20.5%	9.7%	42	+1.04	1.96	287	62
Ryan Drese R 2003 · 5.39 FIP	27	SP-	5.39	11.7%	10.3%	3.6%	.319	3.99	9.7%	3.3%	337	-1.40	3.58	557	62
Anthony Reyes R 2009 · 5.26 FIP	27	SP	5.26	12.5%	13.1%	2.8%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	293	62
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	62
Billy Buckner R 2010 · 5.71 FIP	26	SP	5.71	15.3%	6.9%	5.5%	.423	7.19	9.6%	0.0%	17	+1.48	3.73	252	62
Dustin Moseley R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	27	SP	4.98	12.3%	3.1%	4.6%	.327	4.51	12.4%	5.1%	185	-0.47	3.79	353	61
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	82	17.9%	8.3%	1.52	5.19
Jason Bergmann ('10)	1.9	97	17.5%	9.0%	1.50	5.04
Mike Gardiner ('90-'95, -1 WAR*)	2.0	98	18.3%*	8.8%*	1.37*	5.10*
John Strohmayer ('70-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.6	78	19.6%*	9.2%*	1.42*	5.14*
JC Ramírez ('19)	1.4	72	16.4%	8.4%	1.44	4.71
Ross Ohlendorf ('16)	2.9	84	17.2%	8.6%	1.38	4.82
Mark Grant ('84-'93, 0 WAR*)	3.2	91	18.0%*	8.5%*	1.41*	4.84*