Isaac Lyon
P
Harrisburg Senators
Age 22
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.56
FIP4.56
K%23.2%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%14.2%
ROS IP7
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | A | Modesto Nuts | 4 | 4 | 12 | 55 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 100% | 3.1 | 20.2% | 6.4% | 13.7% | 18.3% | 7.30 | 12.24 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Modesto Nuts | 4 | 4 | 12 | 55 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 100% | 3.1 | 27.3% | 5.5% | 21.8% | 7.3% | 7.30 | 5.61 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 17 | 14 | 68 | 281 | 63 | 21 | 5 | 82% | 4.0 | 18.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 1.9% | 3.44 | 3.71 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | WSH | 1 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 7.3 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 3.5% | 4.56 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.2% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 3.5% | 4.56 | 4.56 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 75 | 312 | 70 | 24 | 6 | — | — | 22.5% | 7.6% | 14.9% | 1.9% | 3.55 | 3.79 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.2% | 9.0% | 14.2% | 3.5% | 4.56 | 4.18 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | WSH | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.3% | 3.4% | 4.46 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | WSH | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.3% | 3.4% | 4.46 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.3% | 3.4% | 4.46 | 4.03 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 37 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 79 | 20 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 15.3% | 3.4% | 4.46 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 21 | 18 | 80 | 336 | 62 | 28 | 15 | 86% | 3.8 | 18.6% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 4.6% | 4.03 | 5.11 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 45 | 200 | 837 | 155 | 69 | 39 | 86% | 3.8 | 18.6% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 4.6% | 4.03 | 5.11 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Isaac Lyon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 3.5% | — | 4.40 | 23.9% | 15.3% | 20 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Ricky DeVito R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.36 | 22.8% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .309 | 4.57 | 21.5% | 2.4% | 151 | +0.21 | 4.05 | 215 | 85 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.67 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .341 | 3.99 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 242 | +0.32 | 3.44 | 259 | 83 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 82 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 80 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 80 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 80 |
| Chad Patrick R 2027 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 79 |
| Chad Donato R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 79 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 78 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 78 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.56 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.43 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 195 | -0.13 | 2.97 | 258 | 77 |
| Grant Judkins R 2027 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 77 |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 77 |
| Eric Cerantola R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.56 | 23.8% | 7.9% | 4.5% | .392 | 4.05 | 24.8% | 9.6% | 198 | -0.51 | 3.53 | 281 | 77 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .311 | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.1% | 236 | -0.19 | 3.12 | 482 | 76 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 76 |
| Nick Fraze R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 76 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 76 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .331 | 6.04 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.32 | 4.72 | 283 | 76 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 76 |