Isaac Lyon — OGILVIE

Isaac Lyon P Harrisburg Senators

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.0 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 7 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%22.4%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%14.7%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 7 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$7M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$25M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	4	4	12	55	15	3	4	100%	3.1	20.2%	6.4%	13.7%	12.5%	7.30	9.05	—
2025	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	4	4	12	55	15	3	4	100%	3.1	20.2%	6.4%	13.7%	12.5%	7.30	9.05	—
2025	21	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	4	4	12	55	15	3	4	100%	3.1	27.3%	5.5%	21.8%	7.3%	7.30	5.61	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	27	21	116	471	106	33	7	78%	4.3	18.4%	7.7%	10.7%	1.6%	3.03	3.43	—
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	27	21	116	471	106	33	7	78%	4.3	18.4%	7.7%	10.7%	1.6%	3.03	3.43	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	WSH	3	0	8	33	6	2	1	0%	2.7	18.2%	6.1%	12.1%	3.0%	3.38	4.00	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	WSH	6	6	20	82	22	9	0	100%	3.4	26.8%	11.0%	15.9%	0.0%	1.33	2.22	—
2026	22	AA RAW	WSH	15	12	74	305	64	18	6	80%	4.9	21.0%	5.9%	15.1%	2.0%	3.79	3.16	—
2026	22	AAA RAW	WSH	3	3	14	51	14	4	0	100%	4.6	27.5%	7.8%	19.6%	0.0%	1.32	1.78	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	118	496	115	37	16	100%	5.3	23.1%	7.4%	15.7%	3.2%	4.28	4.23	+0.9
2028	24	MLB MLE	WSH	22	22	120	508	120	37	16	100%	5.5	23.6%	7.2%	16.4%	3.2%	4.20	4.14	+1.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	122	515	123	37	16	100%	5.8	23.9%	7.1%	16.8%	3.1%	4.14	4.09	+1.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	122	515	124	36	16	100%	6.1	24.0%	7.1%	16.9%	3.1%	4.10	4.07	+1.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	120	507	122	36	16	100%	6.0	24.0%	7.1%	16.9%	3.2%	4.11	4.11	+1.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	116	492	118	36	16	100%	6.1	23.9%	7.3%	16.6%	3.3%	4.16	4.19	+1.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	WSH	19	19	111	470	111	35	16	100%	5.9	23.6%	7.5%	16.1%	3.4%	4.26	4.32	+0.8
2034	30	MLB MLE	WSH	17	17	105	442	103	35	16	100%	6.2	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	3.6%	4.40	4.50	+0.5
2035	31	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	98	412	94	34	16	100%	6.1	22.9%	8.2%	14.7%	3.9%	4.58	4.70	+0.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	90	381	85	33	16	100%	6.0	22.4%	8.6%	13.9%	4.1%	4.79	4.93	-0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	59	249	58	18	8	100%	5.4	23.1%	7.4%	15.7%	3.2%	4.28	4.23	+0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	85	359	85	26	11	100%	5.7	23.6%	7.2%	16.4%	3.2%	4.20	4.14	+0.8
2029	25	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	99	418	100	30	13	100%	5.8	23.9%	7.1%	16.8%	3.1%	4.14	4.09	+1.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	107	452	109	32	14	100%	5.9	24.0%	7.1%	16.9%	3.1%	4.10	4.07	+1.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	109	460	110	33	15	100%	6.1	24.0%	7.1%	16.9%	3.2%	4.11	4.11	+1.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	WSH	18	18	107	452	108	33	15	100%	5.9	23.9%	7.3%	16.6%	3.3%	4.16	4.19	+0.9
2033	29	MLB CTX	WSH	17	17	104	439	104	33	15	100%	6.1	23.6%	7.5%	16.1%	3.4%	4.26	4.32	+0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	98	414	96	32	15	100%	6.1	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	3.6%	4.40	4.50	+0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	WSH	16	16	93	393	90	32	15	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.2%	14.7%	3.9%	4.58	4.70	+0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	WSH	14	14	86	363	82	31	15	100%	6.1	22.4%	8.6%	13.9%	4.1%	4.79	4.93	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		160	160	945	3991	939	300	136	100%	5.9	23.5%	7.5%	16.0%	3.4%	4.29	3.94	+10.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	199	63	29	100%	5.9	23.5%	7.5%	16.0%	3.4%	4.29	3.94	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		31	25	128	526	98	40	15	81%	4.1	18.5%	7.6%	11.0%	2.8%	3.45	4.02	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	39	200	822	152	62	23	81%	4.1	18.5%	7.6%	11.0%	2.8%	3.45	4.02	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Isaac Lyon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	22.4%	7.7%	3.3%	—	4.15	23.5%	16.3%	360	-0.22	—	—	—
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	83
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	82
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	81
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	80
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	80
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	79
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	78
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	78
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	77
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	76
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	76
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	76
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	76
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	76
Travis Herrin R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP-	4.40	21.1%	7.3%	3.9%	.315	4.92	17.6%	5.2%	106	+0.52	4.40	236	76
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	75
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	75
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	75
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	74
Garrett Hill R 2018 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	19.2%	7.7%	1.7%	.390	3.16	21.6%	11.0%	200	-0.23	3.02	539	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.6	103	23.5%	7.5%	1.31	4.28
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01