Isaac Lyon

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP40OGV rank#238ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	AModesto Nuts	4	4	12	7.30	5.61	27.3%	5.5%	—	K 20.2% · BB 6.4% · FIP 9.05
2026	22	MIX4 levels	28	22	120	3.01	2.90	22.6%	7.2%	—	K 18.6% · BB 7.8% · FIP 3.40
2027PROJ	23	MLBWSH	1	1	2	4.25	4.25	19.4%	7.9%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBWSH	7	7	40	4.18	4.14	20.4%	7.7%	0.6
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBWSH	10	10	57	4.12	4.08	21.0%	7.5%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$2M2033Arb-2$3M2034Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 76%

CompsZack Lee (age 23) · Nick Dean (age 23) · Pat Gallagher (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.25

FIP4.25

K%19.4%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP78

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$38M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$6M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$8M		$26M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	4	4	12	55	15	3	4	100%	3.1	20.2%	6.4%	13.7%	12.5%	7.30	9.05	—
2025	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	4	4	12	55	15	3	4	100%	3.1	20.2%	6.4%	13.7%	12.5%	7.30	9.05	—
2025	21	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	4	4	12	55	15	3	4	100%	3.1	27.3%	5.5%	21.8%	7.3%	7.30	5.61	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	22	120	486	110	35	7	79%	4.3	18.6%	7.8%	10.8%	1.6%	3.01	3.40	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	22	120	486	110	35	7	79%	4.3	18.6%	7.8%	10.8%	1.6%	3.01	3.40	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	22	120	486	110	35	7	79%	4.3	22.6%	7.2%	15.4%	1.4%	3.01	2.90	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	WSH	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	19.4%	7.9%	11.5%	2.6%	4.25	4.25	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	WSH	16	16	92	386	79	30	10	100%	5.7	20.4%	7.7%	12.8%	2.6%	4.18	4.14	+1.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	85	360	76	27	9	100%	5.7	21.0%	7.5%	13.5%	2.6%	4.12	4.08	+1.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	84	354	75	27	9	100%	6.0	21.2%	7.5%	13.8%	2.6%	4.09	4.07	+1.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	82	345	73	26	9	100%	5.8	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	2.7%	4.10	4.11	+1.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	78	328	69	25	9	100%	6.0	21.1%	7.7%	13.4%	2.8%	4.16	4.20	+1.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	72	304	64	24	9	100%	6.0	20.9%	8.0%	13.0%	2.9%	4.26	4.33	+0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	65	275	57	23	9	100%	5.9	20.5%	8.2%	12.3%	3.1%	4.41	4.50	+0.7
2035	31	MLB MLE	WSH	10	10	58	245	49	21	8	100%	5.8	20.2%	8.6%	11.6%	3.3%	4.59	4.70	+0.5
2036	32	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	51	215	42	19	8	100%	6.4	19.7%	9.0%	10.7%	3.6%	4.79	4.93	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	40	169	35	13	4	100%	5.7	20.4%	7.7%	12.8%	2.6%	4.18	4.14	+0.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	57	241	51	18	6	100%	5.7	21.0%	7.5%	13.5%	2.6%	4.12	4.08	+0.9
2030	26	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	67	283	60	21	7	100%	6.1	21.2%	7.5%	13.8%	2.6%	4.09	4.07	+1.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	70	296	63	22	8	100%	5.8	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	2.7%	4.10	4.11	+1.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	69	291	62	23	8	100%	5.8	21.1%	7.7%	13.4%	2.8%	4.16	4.20	+1.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	66	279	58	22	8	100%	6.0	20.9%	8.0%	13.0%	2.9%	4.26	4.33	+0.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	60	253	52	21	8	100%	6.0	20.5%	8.2%	12.3%	3.1%	4.41	4.50	+0.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	54	228	46	20	8	100%	6.0	20.2%	8.6%	11.6%	3.3%	4.59	4.70	+0.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	48	203	40	18	7	100%	6.0	19.7%	9.0%	10.7%	3.6%	4.79	4.93	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	89	530	2239	465	178	65	100%	6.0	20.8%	7.9%	12.8%	2.9%	4.28	3.94	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	175	67	25	100%	6.0	20.8%	7.9%	12.8%	2.9%	4.28	3.94	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		32	26	132	541	101	42	15	81%	4.1	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	2.7%	3.41	3.97	+8.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	39	200	820	154	63	22	81%	4.1	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	2.7%	3.41	3.97	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 74 IPFIP 3.16 → 3.78 (+0.63)K% 21.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.98%	—	×0.810	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.90%	—	×1.100	6.49%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.36%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.16 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 20 IPFIP 2.22 → 2.95 (+0.73)K% 26.8% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.83%	—	×0.770	20.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.98%	—	×1.150	12.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.22 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 18 IPFIP 1.95 → 2.16 (+0.21)K% 27.3% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.860	23.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×0.900	8.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.95 → 2.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 8 IPFIP 4.00 → 5.03 (+1.04)K% 18.2% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.740	13.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×1.180	7.15%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.94%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.00 → 5.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AModesto Nuts · 12 IPFIP 5.48 → 9.05 (+3.57)K% 27.3% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.740	20.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.45%	—	×1.180	6.44%
HR / BF /BF	7.27%	÷0.759	×1.300	12.46%

Result: FIP 5.48 → 9.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Isaac Lyon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	19.4%	7.9%	2.6%	—	4.10	20.9%	13.3%	261	-0.15	—	—	—
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	94
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	92
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	90
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	88
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	88
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	88
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	88
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	87
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	87
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	87
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	87
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	86
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	86
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.49	15.0%	7.2%	236	+1.29	3.05	420	85
Nick Sinacola R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.3%	7.6%	3.4%	.313	3.97	17.0%	8.6%	166	-0.23	3.56	357	85
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	85
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	85
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	85
Cedric De Grandpre R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.17	22.9%	9.1%	183	+0.79	3.38	269	85
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	74	20.6%	7.9%	1.09	4.26
Randy Moffitt ('72-'83, 4 WAR*)	3.9	78	19.4%*	8.3%*	1.08*	4.19*
Pete Mikkelsen ('64-'72, 1 WAR*)	3.3	73	20.1%*	9.3%*	1.12*	4.15*
Juan Nicasio ('20)	3.6	80	21.3%	8.3%	1.04	4.71
Anthony Swarzak ('21)	3.3	73	17.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.42
Roy Lee Jackson ('77-'86, 5 WAR*)	2.8	70	21.9%*	8.6%*	1.09*	3.99*
Zach McAllister ('23)	3.0	85	21.1%	7.8%	1.07	4.15