Nick Fraze
P
Arkansas Travelers
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 40 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA4.93
FIP4.93
K%19.4%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%9.1%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 12 | 62 | 249 | 60 | 16 | 7 | 75% | 3.9 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 11.5% | 4.1% | 2.92 | 4.68 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 12 | 62 | 249 | 60 | 16 | 7 | 75% | 3.9 | 24.1% | 6.4% | 17.7% | 2.8% | 2.92 | 3.41 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 13 | 11 | 59 | 253 | 54 | 8 | 7 | 85% | 4.6 | 17.3% | 3.5% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 4.85 | 3.81 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 13 | 11 | 59 | 253 | 54 | 8 | 7 | 85% | 4.6 | 21.3% | 3.2% | 18.2% | 2.8% | 4.85 | 3.22 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 4 | 32 | 149 | 33 | 24 | 6 | 27% | 2.2 | 19.6% | 16.1% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 6.12 | 6.33 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 4 | 32 | 149 | 33 | 24 | 6 | 27% | 2.2 | 22.1% | 16.1% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 6.12 | 5.70 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 8 | 76 | 323 | 70 | 26 | 12 | 24% | 2.2 | 18.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 4.03 | 4.71 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 8 | 76 | 323 | 70 | 26 | 12 | 24% | 2.2 | 21.7% | 8.0% | 13.6% | 3.7% | 4.03 | 4.34 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 13 | 55 | 256 | 45 | 28 | 7 | 68% | 2.9 | 14.9% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 7.08 | 5.29 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 13 | 55 | 256 | 45 | 28 | 7 | 68% | 2.9 | 17.6% | 10.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 7.08 | 4.65 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 7 | 7 | 40 | 171 | 33 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 6 | 6 | 39 | 163 | 32 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 2 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 5.00 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 4.62 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 166 | 83 | 33 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 3.4% | 4.95 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 97 | 48 | 284 | 1230 | 217 | 109 | 47 | 49% | 2.9 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 4.79 | 4.83 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 34 | 200 | 866 | 153 | 77 | 33 | 49% | 2.9 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 4.79 | 4.83 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Fraze (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.93 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 3.2% | — | 5.00 | 19.5% | 9.1% | 39 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 74 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 74 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 74 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 6.03 FIP | 28 | SW | 6.03 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 5.6% | .289 | 4.41 | 8.3% | -7.5% | 10 | -1.62 | 3.92 | 233 | 73 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 73 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 73 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 73 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.49 | 15.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | .244 | 5.53 | 11.2% | 2.3% | 115 | +0.04 | 4.54 | 224 | 72 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.90 | 16.0% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .298 | 3.37 | 23.2% | 16.5% | 145 | -0.53 | 2.22 | 385 | 72 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 72 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 2.0% | .278 | 6.71 | 16.4% | 2.4% | 16 | +2.71 | 4.00 | 464 | 72 |
| Chris Bassitt R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.00 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.74 | 21.7% | 14.1% | 336 | -0.26 | 3.02 | 1,507 | 72 |
| Aldo Montes R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.65 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.41 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 75 | -0.24 | 4.41 | 210 | 72 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2024 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 72 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 71 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2025 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.53 | 13.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.50 | 119 | 71 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.85 | 14.9% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .341 | 5.33 | 13.2% | 0.6% | 66 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 254 | 71 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2029 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 71 |
| Jefry Rodriguez R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.06 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 3.4% | .287 | 4.47 | 19.8% | 6.8% | 64 | -0.59 | 3.21 | 578 | 70 |
| Blake Beers R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.20 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 416 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 40 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 1.28 | 4.94 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |