Nick Fraze — OGILVIE

Nick Fraze P Arkansas Travelers

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%16.9%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	12	62	249	60	16	7	75%	3.9	18.8%	7.3%	11.5%	3.8%	2.92	4.49	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	12	62	249	60	16	7	75%	3.9	24.1%	6.4%	17.7%	2.8%	2.92	3.41	—
2022	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	13	11	59	253	54	8	7	85%	4.6	17.3%	3.5%	13.8%	3.2%	4.85	3.86	—
2022	24	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	13	11	59	253	54	8	7	85%	4.6	21.3%	3.2%	18.2%	2.8%	4.85	3.22	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	4	32	149	33	24	6	27%	2.2	19.6%	16.1%	3.4%	5.2%	6.12	6.33	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	4	32	149	33	24	6	27%	2.2	19.6%	16.1%	3.4%	5.2%	6.12	6.33	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	4	32	149	33	24	6	27%	2.2	22.1%	16.1%	6.0%	4.0%	6.12	5.70	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	8	76	323	70	26	12	24%	2.2	17.8%	8.0%	9.8%	4.0%	4.03	4.80	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	8	76	323	70	26	12	24%	2.2	17.8%	8.0%	9.8%	4.0%	4.03	4.80	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	8	76	323	70	26	12	24%	2.2	21.7%	8.0%	13.6%	3.7%	4.03	4.34	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	13	55	256	45	28	7	68%	2.9	14.4%	11.0%	3.4%	3.2%	7.08	5.03	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	13	55	256	45	28	7	68%	2.9	14.4%	11.0%	3.4%	3.2%	7.08	5.03	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	13	55	256	45	28	7	68%	2.9	17.6%	10.9%	6.6%	2.7%	7.08	4.65	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	SEA	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	16.9%	10.0%	6.9%	3.2%	5.09	5.09	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	SEA	6	6	39	163	28	17	5	100%	6.4	17.3%	10.2%	7.2%	3.4%	5.09	5.14	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	SEA	2	2	12	51	9	5	2	100%	6.0	17.3%	10.2%	7.2%	3.4%	5.09	5.14	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	12	51	9	5	2	100%	6.0	17.3%	10.2%	7.2%	3.4%	5.09	4.76	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	149	83	33	100%	6.0	17.3%	10.2%	7.2%	3.4%	5.09	4.76	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		97	48	284	1230	214	105	46	49%	2.9	17.4%	8.5%	8.9%	3.8%	4.79	4.78	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	34	200	866	151	74	33	49%	2.9	17.4%	8.5%	8.9%	3.8%	4.79	4.78	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Fraze (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	16.9%	10.0%	3.2%	—	5.14	17.3%	7.2%	39	+0.05	—	—	—
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	77
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	77
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	76
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	76
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	75
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	75
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	75
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	75
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	221	74
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	74
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	73
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	73
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	72
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	71
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	71
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	71
Kanekoa Texeira R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.10	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.03	4.10	165	71
Jason García R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	28	SP-	4.76	17.7%	13.5%	2.6%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	356	71
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	70
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	40	17.1%	10.1%	1.27	5.09
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50