Nick Fraze

P Arkansas Travelers

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 180 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	15	4	32	6.12	5.70	22.1%	16.1%	—	K 19.6% · BB 16.1% · FIP 6.33
2024	26	MIX2 levels	34	8	76	4.03	4.34	21.7%	8.0%	—	K 18.1% · BB 8.0% · FIP 4.77
2025	27	MIX2 levels	19	13	55	7.08	4.65	17.6%	10.9%	—	K 14.7% · BB 11.0% · FIP 5.00
2026	28	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	29	MLBSEA	1	0	1	4.95	4.95	17.7%	9.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBSEA	10	0	10	4.99	5.06	17.9%	10.2%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsRamon Delgado (age 29) · Alfonso Sanchez (age 29) · Carlos Frías (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%17.7%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%7.7%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	12	62	249	60	16	7	75%	3.9	18.8%	7.3%	11.5%	3.8%	2.92	4.49	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	12	62	249	60	16	7	75%	3.9	24.1%	6.4%	17.7%	2.8%	2.92	3.41	—
2022	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	13	11	59	253	54	8	7	85%	4.6	17.3%	3.5%	13.8%	3.2%	4.85	3.86	—
2022	24	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	13	11	59	253	54	8	7	85%	4.6	21.3%	3.2%	18.2%	2.8%	4.85	3.22	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	4	32	149	33	24	6	27%	2.2	19.6%	16.1%	3.4%	5.2%	6.12	6.33	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	4	32	149	33	24	6	27%	2.2	22.1%	16.1%	6.0%	4.0%	6.12	5.70	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	8	76	323	70	26	12	24%	2.2	18.1%	8.0%	10.1%	4.0%	4.03	4.77	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	8	76	323	70	26	12	24%	2.2	18.1%	8.0%	10.1%	4.0%	4.03	4.77	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	8	76	323	70	26	12	24%	2.2	21.7%	8.0%	13.6%	3.7%	4.03	4.34	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	13	55	256	45	28	7	68%	2.9	14.7%	11.0%	3.7%	3.2%	7.08	5.00	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	13	55	256	45	28	7	68%	2.9	14.7%	11.0%	3.7%	3.2%	7.08	5.00	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	13	55	256	45	28	7	68%	2.9	17.6%	10.9%	6.6%	2.7%	7.08	4.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	SEA	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	17.7%	9.9%	7.7%	3.1%	4.95	4.95	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	SEA	29	0	30	129	23	13	4	0%	1.1	17.9%	10.2%	7.7%	3.3%	4.99	5.06	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	SEA	10	0	10	42	8	4	1	0%	1.0	17.9%	10.2%	7.7%	3.3%	4.99	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	40	7	4	1	0%	1.1	17.9%	10.2%	7.7%	3.3%	4.99	4.68	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	147	84	21	0%	1.1	17.9%	10.2%	7.7%	3.3%	4.99	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		97	48	284	1230	216	105	46	49%	2.9	17.5%	8.5%	9.0%	3.8%	4.79	4.76	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	34	200	866	152	74	33	49%	2.9	17.5%	8.5%	9.0%	3.8%	4.79	4.76	-1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAArkansas Travelers · 31 IPFIP 4.25 → 5.18 (+0.93)K% 15.0% → 12.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.97%	—	×0.810	12.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.20%	—	×1.100	11.22%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷0.800	×1.200	3.06%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 60).

Result: FIP 4.25 → 5.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 24 IPFIP 4.84 → 4.77 (−0.08)K% 21.1% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.10%	—	×0.860	18.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.93%	—	×0.900	10.73%
HR / BF /BF	3.67%	÷1.204	×1.100	3.35%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 141).

Result: FIP 4.84 → 4.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 40 IPFIP 4.55 → 5.09 (+0.54)K% 21.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.08%	—	×0.810	17.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.23%	—	×1.100	7.95%
HR / BF /BF	4.22%	÷1.145	×1.200	4.42%

Result: FIP 4.55 → 5.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 36 IPFIP 4.10 → 4.44 (+0.34)K% 22.3% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.29%	—	×0.860	19.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.92%	—	×0.900	8.03%
HR / BF /BF	3.18%	÷0.990	×1.100	3.54%

Result: FIP 4.10 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 26 IPFIP 5.28 → 6.33 (+1.04)K% 24.1% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.14%	—	×0.810	19.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.66%	—	×1.100	16.12%
HR / BF /BF	4.31%	÷1.000	×1.200	5.17%

Result: FIP 5.28 → 6.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAABuffalo Bisons · 6 IPFIP 6.17 → 6.41 (+0.24)K% 15.2% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.15%	—	×0.860	13.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.21%	—	×0.900	19.09%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷0.916	×1.100	3.64%

Result: FIP 6.17 → 6.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 59 IPFIP 3.22 → 3.86 (+0.64)K% 21.3% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.34%	—	×0.810	17.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.16%	—	×1.100	3.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.77%	÷1.027	×1.200	3.23%

Result: FIP 3.22 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Vancouver Canadians · 42 IPFIP 3.18 → 4.48 (+1.30)K% 28.4% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.40%	—	×0.770	21.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.17%	—	×1.150	7.10%
HR / BF /BF	3.09%	÷0.909	×1.250	4.24%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 3.18 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Fraze (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	17.7%	9.9%	3.1%	—	5.06	17.9%	7.7%	30	+0.11	—	—	—
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	78
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	75
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	236	74
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	74
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	74
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	73
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	73
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	72
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	72
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	71
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	71
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	70
Jared Fernandez R 2001 · 4.66 FIP	29	SW	4.66	8.8%	10.5%	1.8%	.267	3.95	14.0%	5.6%	89	-0.71	3.57	101	70
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	70
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	70
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	70
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	69
Mitch Neunborn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP	27	SP-	4.25	19.0%	12.0%	2.2%	.285	5.80	16.4%	6.5%	114	+1.55	3.65	248	68
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	345	68
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	17.8%	10.0%	1.23	4.97
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*