Nick Fraze
P
Arkansas Travelers
+0.0
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 180 lbs
AA
ERA4.91
FIP4.91
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.4%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%9.1%
IP58
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 16 | 12 | 62 | 249 | 60 | 16 | 7 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 2.92 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 13 | 11 | 59 | 253 | 54 | 8 | 7 | 17.3% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 3.87 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 15 | 4 | 32 | 149 | 33 | 24 | 6 | 19.6% | 16.1% | 5.2% | 6.12 | 6.33 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 34 | 8 | 76 | 323 | 70 | 26 | 12 | 18.3% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 4.03 | 4.80 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 19 | 13 | 55 | 256 | 45 | 28 | 7 | 14.9% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 7.08 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 47 | 25 | 8 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.91 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 47 | 24 | 8 | 19.6% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 46 | 24 | 8 | 19.7% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.88 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 44 | 23 | 7 | 19.7% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.91 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 42 | 22 | 7 | 19.5% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.98 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 39 | 22 | 7 | 19.2% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 5.07 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 37 | 21 | 7 | 18.8% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 5.17 | 5.24 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 34 | 20 | 7 | 18.4% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 5.28 | 5.36 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 31 | 19 | 7 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 3.8% | 5.41 | 5.49 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 97 | 48 | 284 | 1230 | 217 | 109 | 46 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 4.79 | 4.80 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 34 | 200 | 866 | 153 | 77 | 32 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 4.79 | 4.80 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Fraze (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.91 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 3.2% | — | 4.93 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 164 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 92 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 89 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 88 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 88 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 87 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.01 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 2.3% | .309 | 4.10 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 48 | +0.09 | 3.18 | 253 | 86 |
| A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.96 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 2.8% | .307 | 6.39 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 13 | +2.43 | 2.85 | 299 | 84 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 84 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 84 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2029 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 83 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.83 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 83 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2029 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 83 |
| Brett McKinney R 2024 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 83 |
| Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.39 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 109 | 82 |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.19 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.42 | 3.86 | 231 | 82 |
| Chris Leroux R 2029 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.22 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.06 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.16 | 4.06 | 219 | 82 |
| Bo Schultz R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.20 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .218 | 3.50 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.70 | 2.73 | 141 | 82 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 82 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 82 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.13 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.6% | .302 | 5.19 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +1.06 | 4.13 | 265 | 82 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.