Jose Corniell — OGILVIE

Jose Corniell P Round Rock Express

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.5 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10697vR 88

ERA3.79

FIP3.79

K%23.8%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%16.6%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—55

CMD4055

K†5560

CH (20%)

SL (2%)

FB (49%)

CT-1.5 (29%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.8	$3M	+$3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$1M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	13	9	39	176	44	14	7	69%	3.0	17.0%	9.9%	7.1%	5.4%	6.75	5.89	—
2021	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	13	9	39	176	44	14	7	69%	3.0	25.0%	8.0%	17.0%	4.0%	6.75	4.26	—
2022	19	A	Down East Wood Ducks	22	4	66	292	71	34	9	18%	3.0	18.0%	13.7%	4.3%	4.9%	5.45	5.99	—
2022	19	A	Down East Wood Ducks	22	4	66	292	71	34	9	18%	3.0	24.3%	11.6%	12.7%	3.1%	5.45	4.27	—
2023	20	MIX	2 levels	23	17	102	400	119	31	11	74%	4.4	22.5%	9.0%	13.5%	3.6%	2.92	4.30	—
2023	20	MIX	2 levels	23	17	102	400	119	31	11	74%	4.4	29.8%	7.8%	22.0%	2.8%	2.92	3.08	—
2025	22	MIX	4 levels	14	13	40	155	42	10	2	93%	2.8	23.8%	6.2%	17.6%	0.0%	2.50	1.87	+1.2
2025	22	MIX	4 levels	14	13	40	155	42	10	2	93%	2.8	27.1%	6.5%	20.6%	1.3%	2.50	2.39	+1.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	Texas Rangers	11	9	39	184	30	18	3	82%	3.5	14.4%	10.2%	4.2%	0.7%	6.98	3.54	+0.5
ROS	23	MLB	TEX	12	12	65	274	65	20	7	100%	5.4	23.8%	7.2%	16.6%	2.6%	3.79	3.79	+0.7
ROS	23	MLB	TEX	12	12	65	274	65	20	7	100%	5.4	23.8%	7.2%	16.6%	2.6%	3.81	3.81	+0.6
2026 TOT	23	MLB	TEX	—	—	103	458	95	38	10	—	—	20.8%	8.3%	12.5%	2.2%	4.98	3.70	+2.1
2026 FULL	23	MLB	TEX	—	—	68	288	95	38	10	—	—	33.1%	13.1%	19.9%	3.5%	7.58	3.90	+0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	TEX	22	22	125	527	127	37	14	100%	5.7	24.2%	7.1%	17.1%	2.6%	3.78	3.75	+2.4
2028	25	MLB	TEX	22	22	126	533	130	37	14	100%	5.7	24.4%	7.0%	17.4%	2.6%	3.76	3.73	+2.5
2029	26	MLB	TEX	21	21	126	533	130	37	14	100%	6.0	24.5%	7.0%	17.5%	2.6%	3.75	3.73	+2.5
2030	27	MLB	TEX	21	21	124	525	128	37	14	100%	5.9	24.4%	7.1%	17.3%	2.7%	3.78	3.78	+2.4
2031	28	MLB	TEX	20	20	121	510	124	37	14	100%	6.0	24.3%	7.2%	17.0%	2.8%	3.83	3.87	+2.2
2032	29	MLB	TEX	19	19	115	487	117	36	14	100%	6.1	24.0%	7.5%	16.6%	2.9%	3.93	4.00	+1.9
2033	30	MLB	TEX	18	18	108	458	108	36	14	100%	6.0	23.7%	7.8%	15.9%	3.1%	4.08	4.18	+1.5
2034	31	MLB	TEX	17	17	101	427	99	35	14	100%	5.9	23.3%	8.1%	15.2%	3.3%	4.26	4.38	+1.2
2035	32	MLB	TEX	16	16	94	395	90	34	14	100%	5.8	22.8%	8.5%	14.3%	3.6%	4.47	4.60	+0.7
2027	24	MLB	TEX	21	21	118	498	120	35	13	100%	5.6	24.2%	7.1%	17.1%	2.6%	3.80	3.77	+2.3
2028	25	MLB	TEX	21	21	120	507	124	35	13	100%	5.7	24.4%	7.0%	17.4%	2.6%	3.78	3.75	+2.3
2029	26	MLB	TEX	20	20	120	507	124	35	13	100%	6.0	24.5%	7.0%	17.5%	2.6%	3.77	3.75	+2.3
2030	27	MLB	TEX	20	20	118	498	122	35	13	100%	5.9	24.4%	7.1%	17.3%	2.7%	3.80	3.80	+2.2
2031	28	MLB	TEX	19	19	115	486	118	35	14	100%	6.1	24.3%	7.2%	17.0%	2.8%	3.85	3.89	+2.0
2032	29	MLB	TEX	18	18	110	464	112	35	14	100%	6.1	24.0%	7.5%	16.6%	3.0%	3.95	4.02	+1.8
2033	30	MLB	TEX	17	17	103	435	103	34	14	100%	6.1	23.7%	7.8%	15.9%	3.2%	4.10	4.20	+1.4
2034	31	MLB	TEX	16	16	96	405	94	33	14	100%	6.0	23.3%	8.1%	15.2%	3.4%	4.28	4.40	+1.0
2035	32	MLB	TEX	15	15	89	376	86	32	14	100%	5.9	22.8%	8.5%	14.3%	3.6%	4.49	4.62	+0.6
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			184	182	1058	4476	1071	332	132	99%	5.8	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	2.9%	4.00	3.64	+21.8
/ 200 IP	—			35	34	200	846	202	63	25	99%	5.8	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	2.9%	4.00	3.64	+4.1
Career	—			83	52	285	1207	236	122	39	63%	3.4	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	3.2%	4.52	4.51	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—			58	37	200	848	166	86	28	63%	3.4	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	3.2%	4.52	4.51	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Corniell (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.79	23.8%	7.2%	2.6%	—	3.74	24.3%	17.3%	377	-0.05	—	—	—
Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP-	4.28	23.3%	9.3%	3.6%	.260	4.34	20.5%	11.0%	189	+0.06	3.68	323	73
Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	23	SP-	3.98	21.2%	8.7%	2.9%	.374	4.64	20.5%	7.6%	188	+0.66	3.18	234	71
Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	18.1%	8.1%	3.2%	.312	4.78	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.43	4.25	412	69
Rico Garcia R 2026 · 3.21 FIP	23	SP-	3.21	18.8%	7.0%	1.5%	.316	3.82	19.8%	11.5%	296	+0.61	3.21	566	68
Michael Baird R 2027 · 2.90 FIP	24	SP-	2.90	21.2%	8.3%	1.0%	.273	6.19	21.6%	13.1%	94	+3.29	2.90	132	68
Brendan Beck R 2027 · 3.18 FIP	24	SP	3.18	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.78	20.9%	13.1%	225	+0.60	3.18	256	67
Ryan Johnson R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	23	SP-	4.81	20.1%	7.2%	4.5%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	126	67
Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.29 FIP	24	SP-	3.29	23.4%	11.9%	1.2%	.316	4.60	23.0%	9.5%	109	+1.31	3.29	142	67
Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP	23	SP-	4.03	23.6%	11.1%	2.8%	.312	5.16	22.3%	9.9%	93	+1.13	4.03	152	67
Mitch Neunborn R 2029 · 3.92 FIP	26	SP-	3.92	24.5%	9.5%	3.1%	.232	5.11	17.5%	6.2%	190	+1.19	3.92	233	66
Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP-	3.93	20.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.287	4.58	19.4%	11.0%	140	+0.65	3.90	202	66
Tyler Ivey R 2026 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	26.9%	9.6%	2.9%	.225	5.89	22.2%	8.9%	24	+2.27	2.96	304	66
Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	23	SP-	3.48	20.5%	10.3%	1.5%	.246	4.20	21.6%	12.8%	184	+0.72	3.07	229	66
Sam Benschoter R 2027 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	26.3%	9.2%	3.5%	.344	5.03	18.9%	8.4%	306	+1.07	3.58	426	66
Mason Miller R 2027 · 3.08 FIP	24	SP-	3.08	27.3%	11.5%	1.5%	.265	1.51	44.3%	35.3%	166	-1.57	0.12	200	66
Walker Buehler R 2026 · 2.63 FIP	23	SP-	2.63	28.6%	9.4%	1.4%	.311	2.98	28.5%	22.5%	369	+0.35	2.63	1,053	66
Brett Gillis R 2028 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP-	3.37	20.3%	8.8%	1.6%	.278	5.10	15.8%	6.7%	73	+1.73	3.37	119	65
Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.56 FIP	23	SP-	3.56	21.9%	8.3%	2.3%	.284	3.43	20.0%	10.3%	195	-0.13	2.97	258	65
Keith Rogalla R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP-	3.55	21.2%	11.7%	1.4%	.344	3.62	18.0%	5.9%	65	+0.07	3.00	113	65
Clay Chandler R 2026 · 4.97 FIP	23	SP-	4.97	18.3%	6.0%	4.8%	.319	5.05	14.8%	8.8%	293	+0.08	4.82	328	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10	112	24.0%	7.4%	1.11	3.93
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
James Paxton ('24)	8	106	25.8%	7.7%	1.12	3.89
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	9	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86