Jose Corniell

P Round Rock Express

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAARPIL-6040-MANROOKIEMiLBFA 2034

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	20	MIX2 levels	23	17	102	2.92	3.08	29.8%	7.8%	—	K 22.5% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.27
2025	22	MIX4 levels	14	13	40	2.50	2.39	27.1%	6.5%	1.5	K 23.5% · BB 5.4% · FIP 1.80
2026	23	MIX2 levels	12	9	40	7.94	3.96	16.1%	9.8%	0.7	K 14.1% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.38
2027PROJ	24	MLBTEX	9	9	50	4.20	4.20	17.2%	7.3%	0.7
2028PROJ80% MLB	25	MLBTEX	14	14	81	4.23	4.18	18.8%	7.2%	1.3
2029PROJ87% MLB	26	MLBTEX	14	14	82	4.18	4.13	19.7%	7.2%	1.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$4M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.9 / P90 11, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 79%

CompsAndrew Quezada (age 24) · Darrell Rasner (age 25) · Noah Gotsis (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.20

FIP4.20

K%17.2%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP74

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$10M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	13	9	39	176	44	14	7	69%	3.0	17.0%	9.9%	7.1%	5.5%	6.75	5.94	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	13	9	39	176	44	14	7	69%	3.0	25.0%	8.0%	17.0%	4.0%	6.75	4.26	—
2022	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	22	4	66	292	71	34	9	18%	3.0	18.0%	13.7%	4.3%	4.4%	5.45	5.73	—
2022	19	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	22	4	66	292	71	34	9	18%	3.0	24.3%	11.6%	12.7%	3.1%	5.45	4.27	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	17	102	400	119	31	11	74%	4.4	22.5%	9.0%	13.5%	3.5%	2.92	4.27	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	17	102	400	119	31	11	74%	4.4	29.8%	7.8%	22.0%	2.8%	2.92	3.08	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	14	13	40	155	42	10	2	93%	2.8	23.5%	5.4%	18.1%	0.0%	2.50	1.80	+1.8
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	14	13	40	155	42	10	2	93%	2.8	23.5%	5.4%	18.1%	0.0%	2.50	1.80	+1.8
2025	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	14	13	40	155	42	10	2	93%	2.8	27.1%	6.5%	20.6%	1.3%	2.50	2.39	+1.5
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	40	193	31	19	3	75%	3.3	14.1%	8.7%	5.3%	0.7%	7.94	3.38	+1.0
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	9	40	193	31	19	3	75%	3.3	14.1%	8.7%	5.3%	0.7%	7.94	3.38	+1.0
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	9	40	193	31	19	3	75%	3.3	16.1%	9.8%	6.2%	1.6%	7.94	3.96	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	6	37	5	4	3	0%	2.0	13.5%	10.8%	2.7%	8.1%	19.50	9.93	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TEX	9	9	50	211	36	15	5	100%	5.6	17.2%	7.3%	9.8%	2.3%	4.20	4.20	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	101	426	80	31	10	100%	5.9	18.8%	7.2%	11.5%	2.3%	4.13	4.08	+1.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	94	399	79	29	9	100%	5.9	19.7%	7.2%	12.5%	2.4%	4.08	4.03	+1.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	TEX	15	15	90	380	75	28	9	100%	6.0	19.8%	7.3%	12.5%	2.5%	4.09	4.08	+1.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	85	359	71	27	9	100%	6.1	19.7%	7.5%	12.2%	2.6%	4.14	4.17	+1.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	TEX	13	13	79	334	65	26	9	100%	6.1	19.5%	7.7%	11.8%	2.7%	4.24	4.30	+1.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	71	301	58	24	9	100%	6.0	19.1%	8.0%	11.1%	2.9%	4.38	4.48	+0.8
2034	31	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	64	269	50	23	8	100%	5.8	18.8%	8.4%	10.4%	3.1%	4.56	4.68	+0.5
2035	32	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	56	236	43	21	8	100%	6.2	18.3%	8.8%	9.5%	3.4%	4.77	4.91	+0.3
2036	33	MLB MLE	TEX	8	8	49	206	37	19	8	100%	6.1	17.8%	9.2%	8.6%	3.7%	5.00	5.16	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	81	342	64	25	9	100%	5.8	18.8%	7.2%	11.5%	2.5%	4.23	4.18	+1.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	82	346	68	25	9	100%	5.9	19.7%	7.2%	12.5%	2.5%	4.18	4.13	+1.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	81	342	68	25	9	100%	5.8	19.8%	7.3%	12.5%	2.6%	4.19	4.18	+1.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	TEX	13	13	78	329	65	25	9	100%	6.0	19.7%	7.5%	12.2%	2.8%	4.25	4.28	+1.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	73	308	60	24	9	100%	6.1	19.5%	7.7%	11.8%	2.9%	4.35	4.41	+0.9
2033	30	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	67	283	54	23	9	100%	6.1	19.1%	8.0%	11.1%	3.1%	4.50	4.60	+0.7
2034	31	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	61	258	48	22	9	100%	6.1	18.8%	8.4%	10.4%	3.4%	4.69	4.81	+0.5
2035	32	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	53	224	41	20	8	100%	5.9	18.3%	8.8%	9.5%	3.6%	4.91	5.05	+0.3
2036	33	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	46	194	35	18	8	100%	5.8	17.8%	9.2%	8.6%	3.9%	5.15	5.31	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		107	104	628	2661	508	209	81	97%	5.9	19.1%	7.9%	11.2%	3.0%	4.58	4.15	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	848	162	67	26	97%	5.9	19.1%	7.9%	11.2%	3.0%	4.58	4.15	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		84	52	286	1216	236	119	38	62%	3.4	19.4%	9.8%	9.6%	3.1%	4.66	4.41	+8.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	36	200	851	165	83	26	62%	3.4	19.4%	9.8%	9.6%	3.1%	4.66	4.41	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 35 IPFIP 3.28 → 3.38 (+0.10)K% 16.4% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.36%	—	×0.860	14.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.70%	—	×0.900	8.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.61%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.67%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.28 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 20 IPFIP 0.73 → 1.24 (+0.51)K% 30.3% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.30%	—	×0.810	24.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.52%	—	×1.100	1.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.976	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 0.73 → 1.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 12 IPFIP 2.32 → 2.48 (+0.17)K% 25.9% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.860	22.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×0.900	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.913	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.32 → 2.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Rangers · 6 IPFIP 3.91 → 5.04 (+1.13)K% 26.9% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.92%	—	×0.680	18.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.250	9.62%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.302	×1.400	4.13%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 160).

Result: FIP 3.91 → 5.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 58 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.57 (+1.19)K% 26.9% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.92%	—	×0.770	20.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.26%	—	×1.150	8.35%
HR / BF /BF	2.99%	÷0.948	×1.250	3.95%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ADown East Wood Ducks · 43 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.84 (+1.20)K% 33.7% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.73%	—	×0.740	24.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.43%	—	×1.180	9.95%
HR / BF /BF	2.41%	÷1.082	×1.300	2.89%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADown East Wood Ducks · 66 IPFIP 4.21 → 5.73 (+1.52)K% 24.3% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.32%	—	×0.740	17.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.64%	—	×1.180	13.74%
HR / BF /BF	3.08%	÷0.912	×1.300	4.39%

Result: FIP 4.21 → 5.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Rangers · 39 IPFIP 4.18 → 5.94 (+1.76)K% 25.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.680	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.95%	—	×1.250	9.94%
HR / BF /BF	3.98%	÷1.015	×1.400	5.49%

Result: FIP 4.18 → 5.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Corniell (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.3%	—	4.06	19.4%	12.1%	285	-0.14	—	—	—
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	74
Darrell Rasner R 2006 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP-	4.07	13.3%	6.0%	2.4%	.246	4.56	12.5%	5.2%	138	+0.49	4.07	158	73
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	73
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	70
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	70
Ryan Drese R 2001 · 3.58 FIP	25	SW	3.58	16.1%	8.7%	1.3%	.273	4.20	12.8%	5.2%	391	+0.62	3.58	557	70
Collin McHugh R 2012 · 5.20 FIP	25	SP-	5.20	17.2%	6.1%	5.1%	.310	3.36	21.4%	15.3%	384	-1.84	1.77	1,008	70
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	69
Tyson Ross R 2011 · 3.17 FIP	24	SP-	3.17	16.6%	8.3%	0.8%	.296	3.27	21.9%	13.3%	394	+0.10	2.76	918	69
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	69
Juan Gutierrez R 2007 · 3.96 FIP	24	SW	3.96	17.2%	4.3%	3.2%	.314	3.83	20.4%	12.6%	128	-0.13	2.67	379	68
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	68
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	68
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	68
James McArthur R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	19.7%	7.9%	2.5%	.310	4.12	21.9%	14.0%	194	+0.31	3.48	352	68
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	68
Chad Bettis R 2013 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP-	4.38	14.4%	8.7%	2.6%	.318	3.81	17.4%	10.4%	365	-0.57	3.67	672	68
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	68
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	68
Jeff Manship R 2009 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	14.4%	10.3%	2.7%	.330	4.23	14.9%	9.5%	51	-0.46	2.83	250	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	78	18.9%	7.8%	1.06	4.42
Steve Crawford ('80-'91, 3 WAR*)	2.8	63	18.2%*	7.4%*	1.04*	4.28*
Randy Moffitt ('72-'83, 4 WAR*)	3.9	78	19.4%*	8.3%*	1.08*	4.19*
Jim Acker ('83-'92, 5 WAR*)	4.5	90	16.7%*	8.3%*	1.06*	4.12*
Juan Nicasio ('20)	3.6	80	21.3%	8.3%	1.04	4.71
Anthony Swarzak ('21)	3.3	73	17.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.42
Zach McAllister ('23)	3.0	85	21.1%	7.8%	1.07	4.15