Jose Corniell — OGILVIE

Jose Corniell P Round Rock Express

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.7 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 75 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10496vR 88

ERA3.73

FIP3.73

K%23.3%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%16.9%

ROS IP76

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—55

CMD4055

K†5555

CH (20%)

SL (2%)

FB (49%)

CT-1.5 (29%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$11M	+$10M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	13	9	39	176	44	14	7	69%	3.0	17.0%	9.9%	7.1%	5.5%	6.75	5.94	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	13	9	39	176	44	14	7	69%	3.0	25.0%	8.0%	17.0%	4.0%	6.75	4.26	—
2022	19	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	22	4	66	292	71	34	9	18%	3.0	18.0%	13.7%	4.3%	4.4%	5.45	5.73	—
2022	19	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	22	4	66	292	71	34	9	18%	3.0	24.3%	11.6%	12.7%	3.1%	5.45	4.27	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	17	102	400	119	31	11	74%	4.4	22.5%	9.0%	13.5%	3.5%	2.92	4.27	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	17	102	400	119	31	11	74%	4.4	22.5%	9.0%	13.5%	3.5%	2.92	4.27	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	17	102	400	119	31	11	74%	4.4	29.8%	7.8%	22.0%	2.8%	2.92	3.08	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	14	13	40	155	42	10	2	93%	2.8	23.2%	5.4%	17.8%	0.0%	2.50	1.83	+1.5
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	14	13	40	155	42	10	2	93%	2.8	23.2%	5.4%	17.8%	0.0%	2.50	1.83	+1.5
2025	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	14	13	40	155	42	10	2	93%	2.8	27.1%	6.5%	20.6%	1.3%	2.50	2.39	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	6	37	5	4	3	0%	2.0	13.5%	10.8%	2.7%	8.1%	19.50	9.93	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	12	9	40	193	31	19	3	75%	3.3	13.6%	8.7%	4.9%	0.7%	7.94	3.42	—
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	12	9	40	193	31	19	3	75%	3.3	13.6%	8.7%	4.9%	0.7%	7.94	3.42	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AAA RAW	TEX	10	9	35	165	27	16	1	90%	3.5	16.4%	9.7%	6.7%	0.6%	6.37	3.28	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	TEX	2	0	4	28	4	3	2	0%	2.1	14.3%	10.7%	3.6%	7.1%	20.77	7.17	—
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	TEX	2	0	4	28	4	3	2	0%	2.1	14.3%	10.7%	3.6%	7.1%	20.77	7.17	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.3%	6.4%	16.9%	2.6%	3.73	3.73	—
ROS	23	MLB CTX	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.3%	6.4%	16.9%	2.8%	3.84	3.84	—
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	40	193	31	19	3	—	—	16.1%	9.8%	6.2%	1.6%	7.94	3.42	+0.5
FULL	23	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	4	18	31	19	3	—	—	169.4%	103.8%	65.6%	16.4%	72.69	10.95	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	125	527	121	35	15	100%	5.7	23.0%	6.6%	16.4%	2.8%	3.94	3.91	+1.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	TEX	22	22	126	533	124	35	15	100%	5.7	23.3%	6.6%	16.8%	2.8%	3.91	3.87	+1.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	TEX	21	21	126	533	125	35	15	100%	6.0	23.5%	6.6%	16.9%	2.8%	3.90	3.87	+1.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	TEX	21	21	124	525	123	35	15	100%	5.9	23.4%	6.7%	16.7%	2.9%	3.91	3.92	+1.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	TEX	20	20	121	510	119	35	15	100%	6.0	23.3%	6.8%	16.5%	3.0%	3.97	4.00	+1.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	TEX	19	19	115	487	112	34	15	100%	6.1	23.1%	7.1%	16.0%	3.1%	4.07	4.13	+1.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	TEX	18	18	108	458	104	34	15	100%	6.0	22.7%	7.4%	15.3%	3.3%	4.21	4.31	+0.8
2034	31	MLB MLE	TEX	17	17	101	427	95	33	15	100%	5.9	22.3%	7.7%	14.6%	3.5%	4.39	4.51	+0.5
2035	32	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	94	395	86	32	15	100%	5.8	21.9%	8.1%	13.7%	3.8%	4.60	4.74	+0.2
2036	33	MLB MLE	TEX	14	14	86	362	77	31	15	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.6%	12.8%	4.1%	4.83	4.99	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	TEX	21	21	118	498	115	33	15	100%	5.6	23.0%	6.6%	16.4%	3.0%	4.05	4.02	+1.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	TEX	21	21	120	507	118	33	15	100%	5.7	23.3%	6.6%	16.8%	3.0%	4.02	3.98	+1.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	TEX	20	20	120	507	119	33	15	100%	6.0	23.5%	6.6%	16.9%	3.0%	4.02	3.99	+1.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	TEX	20	20	118	498	117	33	15	100%	5.9	23.4%	6.7%	16.7%	3.1%	4.03	4.04	+1.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	TEX	19	19	115	486	113	33	15	100%	6.1	23.3%	6.8%	16.5%	3.2%	4.09	4.12	+1.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	TEX	18	18	110	464	107	33	16	100%	6.1	23.1%	7.1%	16.0%	3.3%	4.20	4.26	+1.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	TEX	17	17	103	435	99	32	15	100%	6.1	22.7%	7.4%	15.3%	3.6%	4.35	4.45	+0.7
2034	31	MLB CTX	TEX	16	16	96	405	90	31	15	100%	6.0	22.3%	7.7%	14.6%	3.8%	4.54	4.66	+0.4
2035	32	MLB CTX	TEX	15	15	89	376	82	30	15	100%	5.9	21.9%	8.1%	13.7%	4.1%	4.76	4.90	+0.2
2036	33	MLB CTX	TEX	14	14	82	346	74	30	15	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.6%	12.8%	4.4%	5.00	5.16	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		183	180	1076	4556	1038	326	156	98%	5.9	22.8%	7.2%	15.6%	3.4%	4.35	3.96	+12.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	847	193	61	29	98%	5.9	22.8%	7.2%	15.6%	3.4%	4.35	3.96	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		84	52	286	1216	235	119	38	62%	3.4	19.3%	9.8%	9.5%	3.1%	4.66	4.42	+9.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	36	200	851	164	83	26	62%	3.4	19.3%	9.8%	9.5%	3.1%	4.66	4.42	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Corniell (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.73	23.3%	6.4%	2.6%	—	3.88	23.3%	16.7%	377	+0.15	—	—	—
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	72
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	70
Rico Garcia R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	18.8%	7.0%	1.8%	.316	4.07	19.8%	11.5%	296	+0.70	3.37	587	69
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	68
Michael Baird R 2019 · 2.84 FIP	24	SP-	2.84	21.2%	8.3%	0.9%	.273	6.16	21.6%	13.1%	94	+3.32	2.84	132	68
Duque Hebbert R 2023 · 3.18 FIP	21	SP-	3.18	17.8%	4.8%	1.8%	.324	4.54	13.4%	6.1%	130	+1.36	3.18	168	67
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.50	21.3%	14.6%	262	+0.31	3.15	293	66
Landon Knack R 2021 · 3.68 FIP	24	SP-	3.68	26.1%	3.7%	4.2%	.284	4.08	22.2%	13.9%	302	+0.40	2.77	544	66
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	66
Daulton Jefferies R 2019 · 3.23 FIP	23	SP-	3.23	23.4%	3.1%	3.1%	.311	4.22	17.1%	12.9%	131	+0.99	3.23	265	65
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	65
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	65
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	65
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	65
Walker Buehler R 2017 · 2.76 FIP	23	SP-	2.76	28.6%	9.4%	1.6%	.311	2.83	28.5%	22.5%	369	+0.07	2.67	1,103	65
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	64
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	64
Tyler Ivey R 2019 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	26.9%	9.6%	3.1%	.225	5.65	22.2%	8.9%	24	+1.93	2.93	304	64
Engert Garcia R 2023 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP-	3.13	16.9%	5.5%	1.4%	.270	4.81	14.9%	-5.3%	79	+1.68	3.13	125	64
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.2	113	22.9%	7.1%	1.20	4.10
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01