Chase Harlan

3B Ontario Tower Buzzers
Age 21 R/R 6'3" / 205 lbs A HR +8%BB -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP45OGV rank#117ETA2028MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202519A/ROK2 orgs300.269/.360/.4429357—.195/.262/.305
202620A+/A/INTL2 orgs458.295/.403/.509172116—.257/.344/.422
2027PROJMLE21MLBLAD506.231/.308/.380147940.4
2028PROJ43% MLB22MLBLAD156.233/.311/.397521010.3
2029PROJ61% MLB23MLBLAD248.238/.316/.411941060.8
Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$5M2034Arb-2$7M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
Chase%76
Whiff%68
ISO50
K%50
wOBA38
wRC+38
Career WAR0.3 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 31, comp-based) · star 12% · didn't stick 57%
CompsHeriberto Hernández (age 21) · Logan O'Hoppe (age 22) · Agustín Ramírez (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA
wRC+†94
AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .306 / .376
PA210
HR6
K%23
BB%9
ISO149
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.4 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -1.3 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-1FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.40+0.4WAR
0.00.91.90.30.81.11.41.41.41.21.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$46M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.1$7M+$6M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.4$8M+$8M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+1.4$8M+$7M
2033Arb-1$5M+1.4$7M+$5M
2034Arb-2$7M+1.2$6M+$2M
2035Arb-3$9M+1.0$4M+$0.5M
Totals $23M $40M +$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202519 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes — 123104 25303 18321 21 240358356713 115319 2615 330 60 — — — — — —
202519 ROKACL Dodgers — 177156 451316 18350 11 288362500862 212331 2010 373 55 — — — — — —
202620 A+Great Lakes Loons — 130113 27504 13313 10 239333389723 150291 2410 325 69 — — — — — —
202620 AOntario Tower Buzzers — 266219 7217310 38516 00 3294395711.010 242388 1914 438 131 — — — — — —
202620 INTLGlendale Desert Dogs — 6251 14303 8202 11 275393510903 235379 3213 393 152 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202519 A MLERancho Cucamonga Quakes — 123109 21202 13441 21 193285266551 73304 3611 257 60 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL Dodgers — 177163 32814 11510 11 196247331578 135245 296 249 55 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLEGreat Lakes Loons — 130116 24403 10393 10 207287319606 112275 308 270 69 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEOntario Tower Buzzers — 266231 651438 27696 00 281371472843 190358 2610 362 131 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLE2 teams — 300271 531016 25951 32 196266306572 111272 328 252 57 — — — — — —
202519 ROK RAW2 teams — 300260 701619 36671 32 269360442803 173326 2212 355 57 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE3 teams — 458400 10322313 4312611 21 258346425771 167340 289 332 111 — — — — — —
202620 A RAW3 teams — 458383 11325317 5910211 21 295403509912 214358 2213 400 111 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLE2 teams — 300271 531016 25951 32 196266306572 111269 328 252 57 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE3 teams — 458401 10322313 4312611 21 257346424770 167331 289 332 111 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202519 ROK MLE2 teams — 300271 531016 25951 32 196266306572 111269 328 252 57 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE3 teams — 458401 10322313 4312611 21 257346424770 167331 289 332 111 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLELAD 0% 506451 10320214 431187 72 231308380688 149279 238 308 94 -3 +1 -3 +2 +11 0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLELAD 43% 362322 7715212 32835 61 237314400714 163281 239 318 101 +1 +1 -2 +1 +8 0.9
202923 MLB MLELAD 61% 408363 8817214 36926 72 241318414732 173282 239 325 106 +3 +1 -2 +1 +9 1.2
203024 MLB MLELAD 66% 455406 9919216 401026 72 244321422744 179284 229 329 109 +5 +1 -1 +2 +10 1.6
203125 MLB MLELAD 69% 495441 10720218 441117 82 245323427750 182284 229 332 111 +6 +1 -1 +2 +11 1.9
203226 MLB MLELAD 70% 507450 11121219 451147 82 246323429752 183285 229 332 111 +7 +1 -1 +2 +11 2.0
203327 MLB MLELAD 69% 510453 11121219 451157 82 244322426748 182284 239 331 110 +6 +1 -1 +2 +11 2.0
203428 MLB MLELAD 68% 505449 10820218 451156 72 242320421741 179283 239 328 108 +5 +1 -1 +2 +11 1.7
203529 MLB MLELAD 67% 494441 10620218 441146 62 240317414731 175281 239 324 106 +3 +0 -2 +2 +11 1.4
203630 MLB MLELAD 66% 482431 10219217 421136 52 236313406719 169279 239 319 102 +1 +0 -3 +2 +10 1.1
203731 MLB MLELAD 65% 466418 9818216 401115 43 232308396703 164275 249 313 98 -1 -0 -3 +2 +10 0.7
203832 MLB MLELAD 65% 445399 8916114 381085 310 226301382683 156271 249 305 93 -4 -3 -4 +2 +10 -0.0
203933 MLB MLELAD 65% 408367 8014112 341014 238 219293366659 147266 258 295 86 -7 -15 -5 +1 +9 -1.6
202822 MLB CTXLAD 43% 156139 33615 14362 21 233311397708 164274 239 315 101 +0 +0 -1 +1 +3 0.3
202923 MLB CTXLAD 61% 248221 531019 22563 41 238316411727 173276 239 322 106 +2 +0 -1 +1 +5 0.8
203024 MLB CTXLAD 66% 301267 6412111 27684 51 241318420738 179278 239 327 109 +3 +1 -1 +1 +7 1.1
203125 MLB CTXLAD 69% 340302 7313113 30765 61 242320425745 183278 229 330 111 +4 +1 -0 +1 +7 1.4
203226 MLB CTXLAD 70% 354315 7614114 31795 61 243320427747 184278 229 330 111 +5 +1 -0 +1 +8 1.4
203327 MLB CTXLAD 69% 352313 7614114 31795 51 241319424743 183278 229 329 110 +4 +1 -0 +1 +8 1.4
203428 MLB CTXLAD 68% 346308 7313113 31794 51 239317419736 180277 239 326 108 +3 +1 -1 +1 +7 1.2
203529 MLB CTXLAD 67% 330294 6912112 29764 41 237314412727 176275 239 322 106 +2 +0 -1 +1 +7 1.0
203630 MLB CTXLAD 66% 317282 6712112 28744 41 234310404715 171273 239 317 102 +1 +0 -2 +1 +7 0.8
203731 MLB CTXLAD 65% 303271 6311111 26723 32 229305394699 165270 249 311 98 -1 -0 -2 +1 +7 0.5
203832 MLB CTXLAD 65% 288258 5810110 25703 26 224299380679 157265 249 303 93 -3 -2 -3 +1 +6 0.0
203933 MLB CTXLAD 65% 263236 52918 22653 125 217291364655 148260 258 294 86 -4 -10 -3 +1 +6 -1.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 35983206 75713612132 31683045 4742 236313410723 173276 239 320 102 +17 -7 -16 +13 +78 8.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650579 13725224 571508 88 237314411725 174276 239 320 102 +3 -1 -3 +2 +14 1.6
Career— MLE — 65055798 137526027218 571154985 7972 237315404719 167285 249 319 102 +24 -13 -27 +21 +125 13.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650579 13826322 571558 87 238315408722 169286 249 319 102 +3 -1 -3 +2 +14 1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AOntario Tower Buzzers · 266 PAwOBA .430 → .362 (−68)K% 19.2% → 26.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.17%÷1.000×1.360——26.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.29%÷1.000×0.690—×1.03010.15%
HBP% /PA2.26%—×0.780—×1.0301.81%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.000×0.920×1.015×1.03024.04%
Doubles /BIP10.12%÷1.000×0.830×1.015×1.0308.78%
Triples /BIP1.79%÷1.000×0.910×1.015×1.0301.70%
Home runs /BIP5.95%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0304.90%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .430 → .362; ISO .242 → .202; BABIP .388 → .358. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Great Lakes Loons · 130 PAwOBA .320 → .270 (−49)K% 23.8% → 30.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.85%÷1.000×1.270——30.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.00%÷1.000×0.710—×1.0427.40%
HBP% /PA2.31%—×0.790—×1.0421.90%
Singles /BIP21.95%÷1.000×0.920×1.022×1.04221.51%
Doubles /BIP6.10%÷1.000×0.810×1.022×1.0425.26%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.850×1.022×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP4.88%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0424.07%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .320 → .270; ISO .150 → .121; BABIP .291 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Dodgers · 177 PAwOBA .369 → .249 (−120)K% 19.8% → 28.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.77%÷0.993×1.440——28.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.17%÷0.997×0.620—×1.0086.37%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×1.0080.00%
Singles /BIP20.66%÷0.996×0.820×0.982×1.00816.83%
Doubles /BIP10.74%÷1.102×0.720×0.982×1.0086.95%
Triples /BIP0.83%÷1.060×0.720×0.982×1.0080.56%
Home runs /BIP4.96%÷1.187×0.780—×1.0083.28%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 99, 2B 120, 3B 112, K 99, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .369 → .249; ISO .212 → .132; BABIP .331 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 123 PAwOBA .322 → .257 (−65)K% 26.0% → 35.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.02%÷0.987×1.360——35.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.63%÷0.981×0.690—×1.04510.76%
HBP% /PA0.81%—×0.780—×1.0450.66%
Singles /BIP26.39%÷1.004×0.920×1.025×1.04525.90%
Doubles /BIP4.17%÷1.054×0.830×1.025×1.0453.51%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.910×1.025×1.0450.00%
Home runs /BIP4.17%÷1.055×0.800—×1.0453.30%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 101, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .322 → .257; ISO .115 → .084; BABIP .319 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .