Griffin Conine
LF Miami Marlins| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 27 | AAAMIA | 437 | .268/.352/.475 | 19 | 0 | 80 | — | .222/.285/.378 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLBMIA | 89 | .268/.326/.451 | 3 | 0 | 127 | -0.1 | |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 75 | .232/.427/.375 | 2 | 1 | 107 | — | .250/.400/.500 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLBMIA | 86 | .253/.314/.418 | 2 | 0 | 116 | -0.0 | |
| 2026 | 29 | MLBMIA | 323 | .264/.353/.493 | 19 | 4 | 147 | 2.3 | |
| 2027PROJ | 30 | MLBMIA | 211 | .249/.332/.459 | 10 | 3 | 129 | 1.0 | |
| 2028PROJ92% MLB | 31 | MLBMIA | 181 | .244/.327/.449 | 9 | 1 | 125 | 0.5 |
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 55
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 348 | 304 | 86 | 19 | 2 | 22 | 38 | 125 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 283 | 372 | 576 | 947 | 293 | 405 | 36 | 11 | 410 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 173 | 159 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 176 | 243 | 447 | 689 | 270 | 234 | 47 | 7 | 300 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Beloit Snappers | — | 288 | 235 | 58 | 7 | 2 | 23 | 46 | 103 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 247 | 383 | 587 | 971 | 340 | 318 | 36 | 16 | 417 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 496 | 414 | 89 | 15 | 2 | 24 | 74 | 183 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 215 | 339 | 435 | 774 | 220 | 308 | 37 | 15 | 344 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 91 | 80 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 303 | 350 | 653 | 125 | 356 | 38 | 10 | 290 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 353 | 292 | 74 | 14 | 1 | 18 | 47 | 120 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 253 | 371 | 493 | 865 | 240 | 357 | 34 | 13 | 378 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 89 | 82 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 326 | 451 | 777 | 183 | 373 | 31 | 7 | 344 | 127 | +3 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 437 | 385 | 103 | 21 | 1 | 19 | 47 | 129 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 352 | 475 | 827 | 208 | 351 | 30 | 11 | 364 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 86 | 79 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 253 | 314 | 418 | 732 | 165 | 346 | 29 | 8 | 325 | 116 | +2 | -0 | -2 | -2 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 35 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 292 | 514 | 583 | 1.098 | 292 | 385 | 26 | 31 | 478 | 138 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | INTL | Tigres del Licey | — | 40 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 350 | 219 | 569 | 31 | 273 | 25 | 18 | 286 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 323 | 284 | 75 | 8 | 0 | 19 | 34 | 95 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 264 | 353 | 493 | 846 | 229 | 329 | 29 | 11 | 374 | 147 | +18 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +7 | 2.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 498 | 445 | 117 | 19 | 1 | 24 | 47 | 148 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 263 | 341 | 472 | 813 | 209 | 341 | 30 | 9 | 360 | 130 | +18 | +0 | -1 | -11 | +11 | 1.7 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 348 | 318 | 55 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 179 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 173 | 242 | 330 | 572 | 157 | 338 | 51 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 173 | 163 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 103 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 117 | 168 | 282 | 450 | 166 | 217 | 60 | 5 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 288 | 252 | 45 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 29 | 136 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 179 | 279 | 409 | 687 | 230 | 272 | 47 | 10 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 496 | 440 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 17 | 48 | 232 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 166 | 254 | 314 | 568 | 148 | 283 | 47 | 10 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 91 | 83 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 247 | 277 | 524 | 84 | 325 | 44 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 353 | 312 | 64 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 29 | 148 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 205 | 291 | 381 | 673 | 176 | 318 | 42 | 8 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 89 | 82 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 326 | 451 | 777 | 183 | 373 | 31 | 7 | 356 | 127 | +3 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 437 | 400 | 89 | 18 | 1 | 14 | 32 | 155 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 285 | 378 | 663 | 155 | 316 | 35 | 7 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 86 | 79 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 266 | 326 | 443 | 769 | 177 | 346 | 29 | 8 | 339 | 116 | +2 | -0 | -2 | -2 | +2 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 35 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 400 | 500 | 900 | 250 | 321 | 31 | 20 | 372 | 138 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 323 | 284 | 78 | 9 | 0 | 20 | 34 | 95 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 275 | 362 | 518 | 880 | 243 | 329 | 29 | 11 | 385 | 147 | +18 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +7 | 2.3 |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 348 | 318 | 55 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 179 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 173 | 242 | 330 | 572 | 157 | 336 | 51 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A RAW | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 348 | 304 | 86 | 19 | 2 | 22 | 38 | 125 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 283 | 372 | 576 | 947 | 293 | 405 | 36 | 11 | 410 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 461 | 414 | 63 | 8 | 2 | 24 | 38 | 239 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 152 | 237 | 355 | 592 | 203 | 257 | 52 | 8 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 461 | 394 | 86 | 11 | 2 | 36 | 58 | 185 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 218 | 330 | 530 | 861 | 312 | 287 | 40 | 13 | 373 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 496 | 440 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 17 | 48 | 232 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 166 | 254 | 314 | 568 | 148 | 287 | 47 | 10 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA RAW | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 496 | 414 | 89 | 15 | 2 | 24 | 74 | 183 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 215 | 339 | 435 | 774 | 220 | 308 | 37 | 15 | 344 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 444 | 394 | 79 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 36 | 188 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 201 | 282 | 355 | 638 | 155 | 330 | 42 | 8 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 444 | 372 | 92 | 16 | 2 | 20 | 56 | 155 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 247 | 358 | 462 | 820 | 215 | 356 | 35 | 13 | 360 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 526 | 482 | 111 | 22 | 2 | 17 | 38 | 183 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 292 | 390 | 682 | 160 | 331 | 35 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 526 | 467 | 125 | 25 | 2 | 22 | 53 | 157 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 268 | 347 | 471 | 818 | 203 | 355 | 30 | 10 | 361 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 161 | 141 | 36 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 48 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 255 | 348 | 440 | 788 | 184 | 352 | 30 | 12 | 349 | 122 | +4 | -0 | -2 | -2 | +3 | 0.4 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB RAW | 3 teams | — | 161 | 135 | 33 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 244 | 366 | 400 | 766 | 156 | 333 | 27 | 16 | 349 | 122 | +4 | -0 | -2 | -2 | +3 | 0.4 |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 323 | 284 | 78 | 9 | 0 | 20 | 34 | 95 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 275 | 362 | 518 | 880 | 243 | 343 | 29 | 11 | 385 | 147 | +18 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +7 | 2.3 |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB RAW | Miami Marlins | — | 323 | 284 | 75 | 8 | 0 | 19 | 34 | 95 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 264 | 353 | 493 | 846 | 229 | 329 | 29 | 11 | 374 | 147 | +18 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +7 | 2.3 |
| 2019 | 22 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 348 | 316 | 55 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 179 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 174 | 242 | 332 | 574 | 158 | 338 | 51 | 7 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 461 | 412 | 63 | 8 | 2 | 24 | 38 | 239 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 153 | 237 | 357 | 594 | 204 | 251 | 52 | 8 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 496 | 441 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 17 | 48 | 232 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 166 | 254 | 313 | 567 | 147 | 283 | 47 | 10 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 444 | 396 | 79 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 36 | 188 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 199 | 282 | 354 | 636 | 154 | 319 | 42 | 8 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 526 | 479 | 111 | 22 | 2 | 17 | 38 | 183 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 292 | 392 | 684 | 161 | 326 | 35 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 161 | 140 | 36 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 48 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 257 | 348 | 443 | 791 | 186 | 339 | 30 | 12 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 323 | 281 | 78 | 9 | 0 | 20 | 34 | 95 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 278 | 362 | 523 | 885 | 246 | 329 | 29 | 11 | 385 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 526 | 479 | 111 | 22 | 2 | 17 | 38 | 183 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 292 | 392 | 684 | 161 | 326 | 35 | 7 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB MLE | 3 teams | — | 161 | 140 | 36 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 48 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 257 | 348 | 443 | 791 | 186 | 339 | 30 | 12 | 349 | 122 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 29 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 323 | 281 | 78 | 9 | 0 | 20 | 34 | 95 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 278 | 362 | 523 | 885 | 246 | 329 | 29 | 11 | 385 | 147 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIA | 100% | 321 | 283 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 16 | 31 | 87 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 258 | 340 | 481 | 821 | 223 | 310 | 27 | 10 | 359 | 129 | +11 | +0 | -0 | -3 | +7 | 1.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIA | 100% | 211 | 186 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 57 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 249 | 332 | 459 | 791 | 210 | 299 | 27 | 10 | 348 | 129 | +7 | +0 | -0 | -2 | +5 | 1.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | MIA | 92% | 197 | 174 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 19 | 54 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 253 | 335 | 470 | 804 | 217 | 306 | 27 | 10 | 353 | 125 | +6 | +0 | -3 | -2 | +4 | 0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | MIA | 92% | 181 | 159 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 18 | 50 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 244 | 327 | 449 | 776 | 204 | 295 | 28 | 10 | 342 | 125 | +5 | +0 | -3 | -2 | +4 | 0.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 679 | 604 | 156 | 25 | 1 | 33 | 65 | 198 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 258 | 338 | 467 | 805 | 209 | 329 | 29 | 10 | 355 | 87 | +23 | +1 | -4 | -13 | +15 | 2.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 578 | 150 | 24 | 1 | 32 | 62 | 190 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 260 | 340 | 471 | 810 | 211 | 331 | 29 | 10 | 355 | 87 | +22 | +1 | -4 | -12 | +14 | 2.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3167 | 2833 | 588 | 104 | 9 | 130 | 277 | 1275 | 40 | 17 | 5 | 208 | 287 | 388 | 676 | 181 | 317 | 40 | 9 | 297 | 87 | +31 | +1 | -5 | -15 | +20 | 3.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 121 | 21 | 2 | 27 | 57 | 262 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 208 | 287 | 391 | 678 | 182 | 319 | 40 | 9 | 297 | 87 | +22 | +1 | -3 | -11 | +14 | 2.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 35 PAwOBA .468 → .372 (−96)K% 25.7% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.71% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 31.43% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 20.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.051 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 23.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.023 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 5.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.33% | ÷0.903 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 10.26% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .468 → .372; ISO .292 → .250; BABIP .385 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 437 PAwOBA .356 → .287 (−70)K% 29.5% → 35.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.52% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 35.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.76% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.69% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.22% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | ×1.015 | ×1.003 | 22.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.20% | ÷0.970 | ×0.830 | ×1.015 | ×1.003 | 7.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.39% | ÷0.985 | ×0.970 | ×1.015 | ×1.003 | 0.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.42% | ÷0.925 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 5.63% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 97, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .356 → .287; ISO .208 → .159; BABIP .351 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 353 PAwOBA .371 → .289 (−81)K% 34.0% → 41.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.99% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 41.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.03% | ÷1.056 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 8.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.55% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 2.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.84% | ÷1.052 | ×0.920 | ×1.039 | ×0.988 | 21.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.14% | ÷0.947 | ×0.910 | ×1.039 | ×0.988 | 8.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.58% | ÷1.097 | ×0.880 | ×1.039 | ×0.988 | 0.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.47% | ÷1.091 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 7.58% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 110, 2B 89, 3B 119, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .371 → .289; ISO .240 → .183; BABIP .357 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 91 PAwOBA .289 → .238 (−51)K% 38.5% → 44.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.46% | ÷1.040 | ×1.200 | — | — | 44.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.89% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.89% | ÷1.016 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 26.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.44% | ÷0.955 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 3.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.039 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 2.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.44% | ÷1.031 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.07% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 103, 2B 91, 3B 108, K 108, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .289 → .238; ISO .125 → .096; BABIP .356 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 496 PAwOBA .336 → .254 (−82)K% 36.9% → 46.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.90% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 46.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.52% | ÷1.021 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 9.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.78% | ÷0.981 | ×0.920 | ×1.035 | ×0.998 | 20.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.49% | ÷1.056 | ×0.910 | ×1.035 | ×0.998 | 5.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.87% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.035 | ×0.998 | 0.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.39% | ÷1.048 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 7.91% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 96, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 93, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .336 → .254; ISO .220 → .159; BABIP .308 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Beloit Snappers · 288 PAwOBA .405 → .291 (−115)K% 35.8% → 47.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.76% | ÷1.025 | ×1.350 | — | — | 47.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.28% | ÷1.054 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 10.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.08% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 1.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.70% | ÷1.049 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 17.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.30% | ÷0.955 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 4.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.52% | ÷0.977 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 1.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 17.42% | ÷1.082 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 13.20% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 110, 2B 91, 3B 95, K 105, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .405 → .291; ISO .340 → .237; BABIP .318 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 173 PAwOBA .292 → .196 (−96)K% 47.4% → 59.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 47.40% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 59.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.94% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.012 | 4.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.011 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 14.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.19% | ÷1.026 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 4.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 16.88% | ÷1.011 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 13.19% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 102, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .292 → .196; ISO .270 → .167; BABIP .234 → .217. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ALansing Lugnuts · 348 PAwOBA .398 → .256 (−141)K% 35.9% → 51.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.92% | ÷0.950 | ×1.360 | — | — | 51.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷1.016 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.44% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.02% | ÷0.972 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | — | 21.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.61% | ÷0.979 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | — | 8.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷1.050 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | — | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.29% | ÷1.113 | ×0.800 | — | — | 8.83% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 94, 2B 96, 3B 110, K 90, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .398 → .256; ISO .293 → .171; BABIP .405 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .