Ty Johnson — OGILVIE

Ty Johnson P Durham Bulls

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 205 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9789vR 80

ERA3.34

FIP3.34

K%29.1%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%21.0%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$66M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF6555

CTRL5050

CMD6565

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$16M	+$16M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.3	$16M	+$15M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$14M	+$13M
2030	Arb-1	$6M	+1.9	$11M	+$7M
2031	Arb-2	$9M	+1.7	$9M	+$4M
2032	Arb-3	$10M	+1.3	$7M	+$1M
Totals		$27M		$73M	+$57M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	13	84	333	120	26	2	54%	3.5	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.8%	2.79	2.38	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	13	84	333	120	26	2	54%	3.5	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.8%	2.79	2.38	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	13	84	333	120	26	2	54%	3.5	36.0%	7.8%	28.2%	0.6%	2.79	1.48	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	26	20	110	430	149	38	5	77%	4.2	28.1%	9.7%	18.3%	1.5%	2.61	2.79	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	26	20	110	430	149	38	5	77%	4.2	28.1%	9.7%	18.3%	1.5%	2.61	2.79	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	26	20	110	430	149	38	5	77%	4.2	34.7%	8.8%	25.8%	1.2%	2.61	2.02	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	2	11	4	3	0	0%	0.8	36.4%	27.3%	9.1%	0.0%	3.86	3.53	+0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	24	10	65	256	88	28	6	42%	2.7	28.5%	9.2%	19.3%	2.7%	3.06	3.34	—
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	24	10	65	256	88	28	6	42%	2.7	28.5%	9.2%	19.3%	2.7%	3.06	3.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	TB	21	10	62	245	84	25	6	48%	3.0	34.3%	10.2%	24.1%	2.4%	3.03	2.84	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	TB	3	0	2	11	4	3	0	0%	0.8	36.4%	27.3%	9.1%	0.0%	3.86	3.48	—
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	TB	3	0	2	11	4	3	0	0%	0.8	36.4%	27.3%	9.1%	0.0%	3.86	3.48	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	TB	8	0	8	34	10	3	1	0%	1.0	29.1%	8.1%	21.0%	2.3%	3.34	3.34	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	TB	8	0	8	34	10	3	1	0%	1.0	29.1%	8.1%	21.0%	2.4%	3.38	3.38	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	TB	—	—	73	290	98	31	7	—	—	33.7%	10.6%	23.1%	2.3%	3.09	3.34	+1.2
FULL	24	MLB A+C	TB	—	—	10	44	98	31	7	—	—	221.1%	69.5%	151.6%	15.4%	21.48	1.69	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	118	500	144	38	12	100%	5.9	28.8%	7.6%	21.2%	2.4%	3.37	3.33	+2.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	22	22	130	551	157	42	13	100%	5.9	28.5%	7.6%	20.9%	2.4%	3.40	3.37	+2.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	128	543	153	42	14	100%	6.1	28.1%	7.6%	20.5%	2.5%	3.45	3.45	+2.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	125	526	147	41	14	100%	5.9	27.9%	7.8%	20.1%	2.6%	3.53	3.56	+2.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	119	502	139	40	14	100%	6.0	27.6%	8.0%	19.6%	2.8%	3.63	3.69	+1.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	112	472	129	39	14	100%	5.9	27.3%	8.3%	18.9%	3.0%	3.77	3.87	+1.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	104	440	118	38	14	100%	6.1	26.9%	8.7%	18.2%	3.2%	3.95	4.07	+1.0
2034	32	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	96	407	108	37	14	100%	6.0	26.4%	9.1%	17.3%	3.5%	4.16	4.30	+0.7
2035	33	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	88	374	97	36	14	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.5%	16.4%	3.7%	4.39	4.55	+0.4
2036	34	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	80	340	86	34	14	100%	6.2	25.4%	10.0%	15.3%	4.0%	4.65	4.82	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	19	19	113	477	137	36	12	100%	5.9	28.8%	7.6%	21.2%	2.5%	3.41	3.37	+2.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	21	21	124	524	149	40	13	100%	5.9	28.5%	7.6%	20.9%	2.5%	3.44	3.41	+2.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	122	515	145	39	13	100%	6.1	28.1%	7.6%	20.5%	2.6%	3.49	3.49	+2.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	TB	20	20	118	498	139	39	13	100%	5.9	27.9%	7.8%	20.1%	2.7%	3.57	3.60	+1.9
2031	29	MLB CTX	TB	19	19	113	477	132	38	14	100%	5.9	27.6%	8.0%	19.6%	2.9%	3.68	3.74	+1.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	TB	18	18	106	448	122	37	14	100%	5.9	27.3%	8.3%	18.9%	3.1%	3.82	3.92	+1.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	99	418	112	36	14	100%	6.2	26.9%	8.7%	18.2%	3.3%	4.00	4.12	+1.0
2034	32	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	92	388	103	35	14	100%	6.1	26.4%	9.1%	17.3%	3.6%	4.22	4.36	+0.6
2035	33	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	84	355	92	34	14	100%	6.0	25.9%	9.5%	16.4%	3.8%	4.45	4.61	+0.3
2036	34	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	73	308	78	31	13	100%	6.1	25.4%	10.0%	15.3%	4.2%	4.72	4.89	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		184	174	1055	4454	1223	372	134	95%	5.7	27.5%	8.3%	19.1%	3.0%	3.81	3.49	+18.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	845	232	71	25	94%	5.7	27.5%	8.3%	19.1%	3.0%	3.81	3.49	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		74	43	259	1019	285	96	16	58%	3.5	27.9%	9.4%	18.5%	1.6%	2.78	2.79	+14.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	33	200	787	220	74	12	58%	3.5	27.9%	9.4%	18.5%	1.6%	2.78	2.79	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ty Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.34	29.1%	8.1%	2.3%	—	3.38	28.5%	20.9%	378	+0.04	—	—	—
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	80
Tyler Guilfoil R 2023 · 3.18 FIP	23	SP-	3.18	26.0%	12.3%	1.3%	.305	5.52	17.8%	4.4%	190	+2.34	3.18	274	76
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	74
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	73
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	72
Noah Denoyer R 2022 · 3.26 FIP	24	SW	3.26	28.2%	7.0%	3.0%	.272	5.30	21.4%	7.4%	51	+2.04	3.26	181	71
Chase Silseth R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	23.8%	10.8%	2.4%	.264	4.24	20.6%	8.1%	122	+0.44	3.30	332	71
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	71
Martin Agosta R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	21.6%	6.2%	4.1%	.340	4.58	12.3%	5.7%	40	+0.28	4.30	146	71
Ben Meyer R 2017 · 2.32 FIP	24	SW	2.32	23.3%	6.1%	0.8%	.281	4.74	16.6%	5.8%	156	+2.42	2.32	387	70
Tylor Megill R 2019 · 3.02 FIP	24	SW	3.02	22.2%	10.4%	0.9%	.331	3.91	26.8%	19.7%	177	+0.89	3.02	603	69
Matt Cooper R 2016 · 3.47 FIP	24	SW	3.47	23.9%	7.8%	2.5%	.284	2.78	19.3%	10.8%	72	-0.69	2.44	243	69
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	69
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	26	SW	3.22	21.3%	8.8%	1.5%	.330	4.62	18.0%	7.3%	110	+1.40	3.22	221	68
Yosver Zulueta R 2022 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP-	3.19	27.1%	14.0%	1.1%	.299	3.64	23.5%	11.2%	195	+0.45	3.19	286	68
Matt Andriese R 2015 · 3.08 FIP	25	SP-	3.08	20.1%	5.0%	1.9%	.316	4.01	21.8%	16.2%	327	+0.93	3.08	744	68
Michael Baird R 2019 · 2.84 FIP	24	SP-	2.84	21.2%	8.3%	0.9%	.273	6.16	21.6%	13.1%	94	+3.32	2.84	132	67
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	67
Trevor May R 2015 · 3.05 FIP	25	SW	3.05	22.4%	4.9%	2.2%	.334	3.64	28.8%	19.5%	95	+0.59	3.05	432	67
Miguel Almonte R 2017 · 3.06 FIP	24	SP-	3.06	23.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.325	5.72	17.6%	3.3%	20	+2.66	3.06	247	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.0	108	27.5%	8.3%	1.12	3.74
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68