Ty Johnson — OGILVIE

Ty Johnson P Durham Bulls

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 205 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.5 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9788vR 78

ERA3.36

FIP3.36

K%29.1%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%21.0%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF6555

CTRL5050

CMD6565

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$7M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$8M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$10M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	22	MIX	2 levels	24	13	84	333	120	26	2	54%	3.5	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.8%	2.79	2.40	—
2024	22	MIX	2 levels	24	13	84	333	120	26	2	54%	3.5	36.0%	7.8%	28.2%	0.6%	2.79	1.48	—
2025	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	26	20	110	430	149	38	5	77%	4.2	28.1%	9.7%	18.3%	1.7%	2.61	2.87	—
2025	23	AA	Montgomery Biscuits	26	20	110	430	149	38	5	77%	4.2	34.7%	8.8%	25.8%	1.2%	2.61	2.02	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	10	10	49	197	65	19	6	100%	4.9	29.0%	10.1%	18.9%	3.4%	2.74	3.77	+0.5
ROS	24	MLB	TB	12	12	65	274	80	22	7	100%	5.4	29.1%	8.1%	21.0%	2.4%	3.36	3.36	+1.0
ROS	24	MLB	TB	1	1	6	25	7	2	1	100%	6.0	29.1%	8.1%	21.0%	2.3%	3.32	3.32	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB	TB	—	—	114	471	145	41	13	—	—	30.7%	8.8%	22.0%	2.7%	3.09	3.54	+2.5
2026 FULL	24	MLB	TB	—	—	6	27	8	2	1	—	—	29.1%	8.1%	21.0%	2.3%	3.32	2.95	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	TB	19	19	109	461	133	35	11	100%	5.7	28.8%	7.6%	21.2%	2.4%	3.39	3.35	+2.6
2028	26	MLB	TB	20	20	121	511	146	39	13	100%	6.1	28.5%	7.6%	20.9%	2.5%	3.42	3.39	+2.8
2029	27	MLB	TB	20	20	119	504	142	39	13	100%	6.0	28.1%	7.6%	20.5%	2.6%	3.47	3.47	+2.7
2030	28	MLB	TB	19	19	116	489	136	38	13	100%	6.1	27.9%	7.8%	20.1%	2.7%	3.54	3.58	+2.5
2031	29	MLB	TB	18	18	110	467	129	37	13	100%	6.1	27.6%	8.0%	19.6%	2.8%	3.64	3.71	+2.2
2032	30	MLB	TB	17	17	104	439	120	37	13	100%	6.1	27.3%	8.3%	18.9%	3.0%	3.79	3.89	+1.8
2033	31	MLB	TB	16	16	97	409	110	36	13	100%	6.1	26.9%	8.7%	18.2%	3.2%	3.97	4.09	+1.4
2034	32	MLB	TB	15	15	90	378	100	34	13	100%	6.0	26.4%	9.1%	17.3%	3.5%	4.18	4.31	+0.9
2035	33	MLB	TB	14	14	82	347	90	33	13	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.5%	16.4%	3.8%	4.41	4.57	+0.4
2036	34	MLB	TB	12	12	75	316	86	29	13	100%	6.2	27.4%	9.2%	18.1%	4.1%	4.51	4.57	+0.3
2037	35	MLB	TB	11	11	67	283	76	28	12	100%	6.1	26.8%	9.8%	17.0%	4.4%	4.73	4.88	-0.1
2038	36	MLB	TB	10	10	59	251	65	26	12	100%	5.9	26.1%	10.4%	15.7%	4.8%	5.02	5.21	-0.5
2027	25	MLB	TB	9	9	53	224	64	17	5	100%	5.9	28.8%	7.6%	21.2%	2.4%	3.35	3.31	+0.8
2028	26	MLB	TB	14	14	84	355	101	27	9	100%	6.0	28.5%	7.6%	20.9%	2.4%	3.38	3.35	+1.7
2029	27	MLB	TB	16	16	94	397	112	30	10	100%	5.9	28.1%	7.6%	20.5%	2.5%	3.43	3.43	+2.0
2030	28	MLB	TB	16	16	99	418	116	33	11	100%	6.2	27.9%	7.8%	20.1%	2.6%	3.50	3.54	+2.1
2031	29	MLB	TB	16	16	98	414	114	33	11	100%	6.1	27.6%	8.0%	19.6%	2.7%	3.60	3.67	+1.9
2032	30	MLB	TB	16	16	94	397	108	33	12	100%	5.9	27.3%	8.3%	18.9%	2.9%	3.74	3.84	+1.6
2033	31	MLB	TB	15	15	89	376	101	33	12	100%	5.9	26.9%	8.7%	18.2%	3.2%	3.92	4.04	+1.2
2034	32	MLB	TB	14	14	83	350	93	32	12	100%	5.9	26.4%	9.1%	17.3%	3.4%	4.13	4.26	+0.8
2035	33	MLB	TB	13	13	77	325	84	31	12	100%	5.9	25.9%	9.5%	16.4%	3.7%	4.35	4.51	+0.4
2036	34	MLB	TB	11	11	67	283	77	26	11	100%	6.1	27.4%	9.2%	18.1%	4.0%	4.45	4.51	+0.1
2037	35	MLB	TB	10	10	57	241	64	24	10	100%	5.7	26.8%	9.8%	17.0%	4.3%	4.66	4.81	-0.2
2038	36	MLB	TB	8	8	45	190	50	20	9	100%	5.6	26.1%	10.4%	15.7%	4.6%	4.95	5.14	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			158	158	945	3989	1092	339	124	100%	6.0	27.4%	8.5%	18.9%	3.1%	3.88	3.57	+20.2
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	844	231	72	26	100%	6.0	27.4%	8.5%	18.9%	3.1%	3.88	3.57	+4.3
Career	—			60	43	244	960	269	92	17	72%	4.1	28.0%	9.6%	18.4%	1.7%	2.70	2.89	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—			49	35	200	788	221	75	14	72%	4.1	28.0%	9.6%	18.4%	1.7%	2.70	2.89	+5.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ty Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.36	29.1%	8.1%	2.4%	—	3.40	28.5%	20.9%	350	+0.04	—	—	—
Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	25.1%	7.5%	3.2%	.256	5.06	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.37	3.69	333	85
K.C. Hunt R 2026 · 2.65 FIP	24	SP-	2.65	26.8%	7.1%	1.7%	.277	4.65	17.9%	6.8%	151	+2.00	2.65	253	83
Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	26.3%	9.2%	3.5%	.344	5.03	18.9%	8.4%	306	+1.07	3.58	426	82
Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	24	SP	3.59	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.20	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.39	2.15	702	79
Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	23.0%	8.8%	3.5%	.359	4.87	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.67	4.20	118	75
Andy Ferguson R 2028 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	22.3%	5.7%	3.0%	.262	3.13	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.44	3.13	137	75
Erik Swanson R 2026 · 3.08 FIP	24	SP	3.08	25.2%	6.9%	2.2%	.271	5.11	22.3%	15.9%	118	+2.03	1.63	606	75
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2027 · 2.55 FIP	25	SP	2.55	28.5%	6.0%	2.0%	.303	3.04	27.6%	20.2%	284	+0.49	2.55	374	74
Jacob Kisting R 2025 · 2.74 FIP	23	SP	2.74	21.9%	5.9%	1.4%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	144	73
Nolan Perry R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	22	SP	3.24	29.0%	9.7%	2.5%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	136	73
Davis Daniel R 2026 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP	4.02	25.8%	7.7%	3.9%	.313	4.34	19.6%	12.2%	283	+0.32	3.06	584	73
Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	24	SP	3.65	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	6.01	18.9%	5.5%	56	+2.36	3.65	287	72
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	21.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.336	6.45	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.76	3.69	124	72
Lance McCullers Jr. R 2026 · 3.21 FIP	24	SP	3.21	26.9%	9.5%	2.1%	.272	3.23	26.4%	15.9%	217	+0.02	2.70	857	72
Martin Agosta R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	24	SP-	4.24	21.6%	6.2%	4.0%	.340	4.51	12.3%	5.7%	40	+0.27	4.24	146	72
Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.79 FIP	25	SP	3.79	21.1%	7.1%	2.9%	.244	3.56	23.9%	18.1%	56	-0.23	3.56	167	72
Blake Money R 2025 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	23.6%	9.5%	2.6%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	224	71
Tommy Romero R 2026 · 3.08 FIP	24	SP	3.08	28.1%	7.6%	2.5%	.261	5.00	18.3%	5.4%	245	+1.92	2.76	721	71
Joe Ryan R 2025 · 2.43 FIP	23	SP	2.43	29.2%	6.2%	1.8%	.264	3.45	27.6%	20.9%	240	+1.02	2.43	941	71
Shawn Dubin R 2025 · 3.04 FIP	23	SP-	3.04	24.3%	11.5%	0.9%	.281	3.24	29.6%	17.6%	108	+0.20	3.04	341	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	13	95	27.6%	8.4%	1.20	3.86
Rich Hill ('23)	9	104	25.0%	8.0%	1.12	3.65
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	9	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Kenta Maeda ('24)	8	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Jesse Chavez ('24)	9	82	22.2%	6.9%	1.26	3.94
James Paxton ('24)	8	106	25.8%	7.7%	1.12	3.89