Ty Johnson

P Durham Bulls

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 205 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.8 · 2028 ILForty Man (40M)

Overview

AAARP40M40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	24	13	84	2.79	1.48	36.0%	7.8%	—	K 27.3% · BB 9.1% · FIP 2.38
2025	23	AATB	26	20	110	2.61	2.02	34.7%	8.8%	—	K 28.1% · BB 9.7% · FIP 2.79
2026	24	MIX2 levels	29	10	70	3.09	2.93	34.1%	10.4%	1.4	K 29.5% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.25
2027PROJ	25	MLBTB	12	12	74	3.54	3.54	29.5%	8.7%	1.7
2028PROJ80% MLB	26	MLBTB	15	15	92	3.56	3.55	29.0%	8.6%	2.0
2029PROJ86% MLB	27	MLBTB	15	15	92	3.63	3.64	28.4%	8.6%	1.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.128First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$3M2031Arb-2$4M2032Arb-3$4M

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 6.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 78%

CompsMitch Neunborn (age 26) · Cody Morris (age 25) · Shawn Dubin (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10092vR 84

ERA3.54

FIP3.54

K%29.5%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%20.8%

Proj IP109

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$67M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.128 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$14M	+$13M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.0	$15M	+$14M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$13M	+$12M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+1.7	$11M	+$9M
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+1.5	$9M	+$6M
2032	Arb-3	$4M	+1.2	$7M	+$4M
Totals		$13M		$68M	+$59M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	13	84	333	120	26	2	54%	3.5	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.8%	2.79	2.38	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	13	84	333	120	26	2	54%	3.5	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.8%	2.79	2.38	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	13	84	333	120	26	2	54%	3.5	36.0%	7.8%	28.2%	0.6%	2.79	1.48	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	26	20	110	430	149	38	5	77%	4.2	28.1%	9.7%	18.3%	1.5%	2.61	2.79	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	26	20	110	430	149	38	5	77%	4.2	28.1%	9.7%	18.3%	1.5%	2.61	2.79	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Montgomery Biscuits	26	20	110	430	149	38	5	77%	4.2	34.7%	8.8%	25.8%	1.2%	2.61	2.02	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	10	70	279	95	29	7	34%	2.4	29.5%	9.2%	20.3%	2.7%	3.09	3.25	+1.1
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	10	70	279	95	29	7	34%	2.4	29.5%	9.2%	20.3%	2.7%	3.09	3.25	+1.1
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	10	70	279	95	29	7	34%	2.4	34.1%	10.4%	23.7%	2.5%	3.09	2.93	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	0	8	34	11	4	1	0%	1.0	32.4%	11.8%	20.6%	2.9%	3.52	3.49	+0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	TB	12	12	74	312	92	27	8	100%	6.2	29.5%	8.7%	20.8%	2.6%	3.54	3.54	+1.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	115	487	141	42	13	100%	6.4	29.0%	8.6%	20.4%	2.7%	3.60	3.59	+2.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	107	453	129	39	12	100%	6.3	28.4%	8.6%	19.8%	2.7%	3.67	3.68	+2.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	101	426	119	37	12	100%	6.3	28.0%	8.7%	19.3%	2.9%	3.75	3.79	+2.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	94	396	109	35	12	100%	6.3	27.6%	8.9%	18.7%	3.0%	3.86	3.93	+1.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	85	361	98	33	12	100%	6.1	27.2%	9.2%	18.0%	3.2%	4.01	4.11	+1.3
2033	31	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	76	322	86	31	11	100%	6.4	26.8%	9.6%	17.3%	3.4%	4.19	4.31	+1.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	92	388	112	33	10	100%	6.1	29.0%	8.6%	20.4%	2.6%	3.56	3.55	+2.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	92	388	110	33	10	100%	6.1	28.4%	8.6%	19.8%	2.7%	3.63	3.64	+1.9
2030	28	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	90	380	106	33	11	100%	6.4	28.0%	8.7%	19.3%	2.8%	3.71	3.75	+1.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	85	359	99	32	11	100%	6.1	27.6%	8.9%	18.7%	2.9%	3.81	3.88	+1.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	TB	13	13	79	334	91	31	10	100%	6.1	27.2%	9.2%	18.0%	3.1%	3.96	4.06	+1.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	71	300	80	29	10	100%	6.5	26.8%	9.6%	17.3%	3.3%	4.14	4.26	+0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		89	81	517	2186	611	195	63	91%	5.8	28.0%	8.9%	19.0%	2.9%	3.78	3.45	+12.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	31	200	845	236	75	24	91%	5.8	28.0%	8.9%	19.0%	2.9%	3.78	3.45	+4.8
Career	—	MLE		79	43	264	1042	294	98	17	54%	3.3	28.2%	9.4%	18.8%	1.6%	2.79	2.78	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	33	200	788	222	74	13	54%	3.3	28.2%	9.4%	18.8%	1.6%	2.79	2.78	+3.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 62 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.25 (+0.41)K% 34.3% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.29%	—	×0.860	29.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.20%	—	×0.900	9.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.45%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.69%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 110 IPFIP 1.93 → 2.79 (+0.86)K% 34.7% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.65%	—	×0.810	28.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.84%	—	×1.100	9.72%
HR / BF /BF	1.16%	÷0.922	×1.200	1.51%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 1.93 → 2.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 50 IPFIP 1.35 → 2.26 (+0.91)K% 36.0% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.00%	—	×0.770	27.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×1.150	9.20%
HR / BF /BF	0.50%	÷1.015	×1.250	0.62%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 1.35 → 2.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 34 IPFIP 1.42 → 2.56 (+1.14)K% 36.1% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.09%	—	×0.740	26.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.52%	—	×1.180	8.87%
HR / BF /BF	0.75%	÷0.908	×1.300	1.08%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 1.42 → 2.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ty Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	3.68	28.5%	19.9%	323	+0.14	—	—	—
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	76
Cody Morris R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	25	SP-	3.74	31.3%	11.6%	3.3%	.256	4.45	23.6%	8.9%	72	+0.71	2.23	256	74
Shawn Dubin R 2021 · 3.09 FIP	25	SP-	3.09	31.1%	10.2%	2.4%	.301	3.88	24.1%	11.1%	159	+0.79	3.02	341	70
Michael Baird R 2019 · 2.84 FIP	24	SP-	2.84	21.2%	8.3%	0.9%	.273	6.16	21.6%	13.1%	94	+3.32	2.84	132	69
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	69
Ryan Lobus R 2024 · 3.68 FIP	23	SP-	3.68	27.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.277	3.65	22.1%	13.2%	128	-0.03	3.59	216	68
Dylan King R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	25	SW	3.78	26.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	121	67
Daniel Federman R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	24	SP-	4.12	23.8%	8.3%	3.6%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	119	66
Nestor German R 2024 · 2.46 FIP	22	SP-	2.46	23.6%	7.0%	0.9%	.281	3.60	21.5%	12.4%	233	+1.14	2.46	307	66
Michael King R 2020 · 4.56 FIP	25	SW	4.56	21.5%	9.1%	3.9%	.316	2.74	28.3%	20.8%	219	-1.82	1.97	1,024	65
Taylor Williams R 2017 · 3.02 FIP	26	SP-	3.02	23.2%	11.1%	0.9%	.333	3.73	23.7%	15.0%	136	+0.71	2.51	309	65
Tylor Megill R 2019 · 3.02 FIP	24	SW	3.02	22.2%	10.4%	0.9%	.331	3.91	26.8%	19.7%	177	+0.89	3.02	603	64
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	63
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	63
K.C. Hunt R 2024 · 2.69 FIP	24	SP-	2.69	26.8%	7.1%	1.8%	.277	4.94	17.5%	6.4%	186	+2.25	2.69	288	63
Brock Stewart R 2017 · 3.82 FIP	25	SW	3.82	23.3%	9.2%	2.8%	.295	5.26	16.6%	7.8%	224	+1.44	1.51	622	62
Charles Hall R 2019 · 2.43 FIP	24	SW	2.43	20.9%	8.7%	0.0%	.296	4.06	23.9%	12.4%	97	+1.63	2.43	181	62
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	62
Owen Hackman R 2024 · 2.52 FIP	22	SP-	2.52	22.8%	10.6%	0.0%	.234	4.03	19.8%	13.4%	156	+1.51	2.52	177	61
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	99	28.2%	8.9%	1.12	3.77
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Mel Queen ('66-'72, 4 WAR*)	1.9	97	24.2%*	9.0%*	1.27*	3.77*
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Danny Salazar ('19)	3.0	118	27.7%	8.6%	1.14	3.82
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Al Holland ('77-'87, 9 WAR*)	3.2	92	26.4%*	8.6%*	1.22*	3.49*