Ty Johnson
P
Montgomery Biscuits
+2.1
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'6" / 205 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 2.2 · 2029
ERA3.75
FIP3.75
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%26.2%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%16.7%
IP102
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.2peak
2029
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 24 | 13 | 84 | 333 | 120 | 26 | 2 | 27.3% | 9.1% | 0.8% | 2.79 | 2.37 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 26 | 20 | 110 | 430 | 149 | 38 | 5 | 28.1% | 9.7% | 1.5% | 2.61 | 2.80 | +3.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 102 | 429 | 112 | 41 | 10 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 2.3% | 3.75 | 3.75 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 115 | 485 | 127 | 44 | 12 | 26.1% | 9.0% | 2.4% | 3.76 | 3.73 | +2.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 122 | 515 | 134 | 46 | 13 | 26.0% | 8.9% | 2.4% | 3.77 | 3.75 | +2.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 125 | 528 | 136 | 47 | 13 | 25.9% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 3.78 | 3.78 | +2.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | TB | 23 | 23 | 125 | 528 | 136 | 47 | 13 | 25.7% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 3.81 | 3.82 | +2.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 122 | 516 | 132 | 46 | 13 | 25.6% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 3.84 | 3.86 | +2.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | TB | 22 | 22 | 119 | 501 | 127 | 45 | 13 | 25.4% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 3.89 | 3.93 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | TB | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 121 | 44 | 13 | 25.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 4.00 | +1.7 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | TB | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 115 | 43 | 13 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 4.09 | +1.5 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | TB | 19 | 19 | 105 | 443 | 109 | 42 | 13 | 24.6% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.18 | +1.3 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | TB | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 102 | 41 | 13 | 24.2% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.29 | +1.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | TB | 17 | 17 | 94 | 397 | 95 | 39 | 12 | 23.8% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.42 | +0.9 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | TB | 16 | 16 | 88 | 371 | 87 | 38 | 12 | 23.4% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.55 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | TB | 15 | 15 | 82 | 344 | 79 | 36 | 11 | 22.9% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.70 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 50 | 33 | 194 | 763 | 212 | 72 | 9 | 27.7% | 9.4% | 1.2% | 2.69 | 2.61 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 34 | 200 | 785 | 218 | 74 | 9 | 27.7% | 9.4% | 1.2% | 2.69 | 2.61 | +6.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ty Johnson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.75 | 26.2% | 9.5% | 2.3% | — | 3.75 | 26.0% | 17.1% | 362 | +0.00 | — | — | — |
| K.C. Hunt R 2026 · 2.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.68 | 26.8% | 7.1% | 1.7% | .277 | 4.34 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 121 | +1.66 | 2.68 | 223 | 93 |
| Jake Smith R 2027 · 3.11 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.11 | 28.1% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .243 | 4.69 | 19.3% | -1.7% | 26 | +1.58 | 3.11 | 110 | 89 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.01 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .256 | 5.52 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.51 | 4.01 | 277 | 85 |
| Erik Swanson R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.14 | 25.2% | 6.9% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.11 | 22.3% | 15.9% | 118 | +1.97 | 1.58 | 606 | 84 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.60 | 26.4% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .333 | 3.28 | 24.9% | 17.2% | 345 | -0.32 | 2.16 | 615 | 84 |
| Davis Daniel R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.90 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 3.6% | .313 | 4.20 | 19.6% | 12.2% | 283 | +0.30 | 3.02 | 519 | 83 |
| Ian Gardeck R 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.93 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 105 | 82 |
| Chase Hampton R 2023 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.05 | 26.1% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.05 | 107 | 82 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 81 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto R 2027 · 2.45 FIP | 25 | SP- | 2.45 | 28.5% | 6.0% | 1.8% | .303 | 2.78 | 28.5% | 20.6% | 199 | +0.33 | 2.45 | 289 | 81 |
| Raisel Iglesias R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.57 | 23.7% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .271 | 3.07 | 27.7% | 19.6% | 226 | -0.50 | 1.32 | 765 | 81 |
| Alex Faedo R 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 22.9% | 5.8% | 3.3% | .293 | 4.54 | 18.0% | 7.8% | 54 | +0.82 | 3.72 | 438 | 80 |
| Trey Yesavage R 2024 · 3.14 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.14 | 31.5% | 11.7% | 2.2% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 112 | 80 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.22 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .272 | 3.26 | 26.4% | 15.9% | 217 | +0.04 | 2.74 | 833 | 80 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.65 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .262 | 3.09 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.56 | 3.09 | 137 | 80 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | .336 | 6.35 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.48 | 3.87 | 124 | 80 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.67 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .280 | 6.90 | 17.1% | 1.8% | 38 | +3.23 | 3.67 | 270 | 80 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.22 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.35 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.13 | 2.01 | 352 | 80 |
| John Klein R 2025 · 3.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.22 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 260 | 79 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 79 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.2 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.1 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.0 | $19M | +$18M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.8 | $17M | +$13M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +1.7 | $17M | +$10M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $9M | +1.5 | $15M | +$6M |
| Totals | $23M | $106M | +$83M | ||