Nestor German
P
Norfolk Tides
+1.4
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.7 · 2028
ERA4.15
FIP4.15
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.7%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.5%
IP102
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.7peak
2028
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 21 | 12 | 74 | 287 | 90 | 17 | 2 | 23.6% | 7.0% | 0.8% | 1.59 | 2.46 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 26 | 25 | 124 | 510 | 143 | 46 | 13 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 2.1% | 3.93 | 3.61 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 4 | 4 | 17 | 76 | 23 | 9 | 0 | 26.6% | 12.4% | 0.0% | 4.24 | 2.43 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 102 | 430 | 98 | 40 | 11 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +1.3 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 119 | 506 | 121 | 49 | 11 | 23.9% | 9.6% | 2.2% | 4.16 | 3.90 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 115 | 486 | 112 | 43 | 13 | 23.0% | 8.9% | 2.6% | 4.12 | 4.09 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 22 | 122 | 516 | 119 | 45 | 14 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.10 | 4.08 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 125 | 529 | 122 | 46 | 14 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.10 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 125 | 529 | 122 | 46 | 14 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.12 | 4.13 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 22 | 123 | 518 | 119 | 46 | 14 | 22.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.17 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 22 | 119 | 502 | 114 | 45 | 14 | 22.7% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.24 | +1.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 115 | 484 | 109 | 44 | 14 | 22.5% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.31 | +1.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 110 | 465 | 103 | 43 | 14 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.40 | +1.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 105 | 444 | 97 | 41 | 14 | 21.9% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.49 | +1.0 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 91 | 40 | 13 | 21.6% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.60 | +0.8 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 94 | 397 | 84 | 39 | 13 | 21.2% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.73 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 88 | 372 | 77 | 37 | 13 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.86 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | BAL | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 70 | 36 | 12 | 20.3% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 5.01 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 41 | 214 | 873 | 202 | 80 | 13 | 23.2% | 9.1% | 1.5% | 3.15 | 3.13 | +5.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 38 | 200 | 815 | 188 | 75 | 12 | 23.2% | 9.1% | 1.5% | 3.15 | 3.13 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nestor German (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.15 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.09 | 23.1% | 14.4% | 363 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 91 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 90 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 89 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.67 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .280 | 6.90 | 17.1% | 1.8% | 38 | +3.23 | 3.67 | 270 | 89 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 88 |
| Ian Gardeck R 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.93 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 1.4% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 105 | 88 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 87 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 87 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 87 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 4.37 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 313 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 554 | 87 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .287 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 15.7% | 313 | -0.17 | 3.31 | 571 | 87 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.70 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 101 | -0.46 | 1.87 | 210 | 87 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.07 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .284 | 3.78 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 41 | -0.29 | 3.78 | 293 | 86 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .319 | 6.02 | 15.6% | 0.6% | 19 | +2.47 | 3.55 | 252 | 86 |
| Ariel Peña R 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 86 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.22 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.35 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.13 | 2.01 | 352 | 86 |
| Austin Cates R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 86 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.60 | 26.4% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .333 | 3.28 | 24.9% | 17.2% | 345 | -0.32 | 2.16 | 615 | 86 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 86 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.7 | $14M | +$14M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.7 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.7 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $3M | +1.6 | $15M | +$12M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.4 | $13M | +$8M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.3 | $13M | +$6M |
| Totals | $17M | $86M | +$68M | ||