Nestor German — OGILVIE

Nestor German P Norfolk Tides

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.2 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION117 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 95

ERA4.13

FIP4.13

K%22.6%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF—50

CTRL—50

CMD—50

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2030	Arb-1	$5M	+1.2	$7M	+$4M
2031	Arb-2	$7M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$8M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$29M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	12	74	287	90	17	2	57%	3.5	23.6%	7.0%	16.6%	0.8%	1.59	2.46	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	12	74	287	90	17	2	57%	3.5	23.6%	7.0%	16.6%	0.8%	1.59	2.46	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	12	74	287	90	17	2	57%	3.5	31.4%	5.9%	25.4%	0.7%	1.59	1.70	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	124	510	143	46	13	96%	4.8	22.4%	9.9%	12.6%	2.1%	3.93	3.58	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	124	510	143	46	13	96%	4.8	22.4%	9.9%	12.6%	2.1%	3.93	3.58	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	124	510	143	46	13	96%	4.8	28.0%	9.0%	19.0%	2.5%	3.93	3.27	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	24	22	117	499	120	46	10	92%	4.9	20.0%	8.3%	11.7%	2.2%	4.08	3.68	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	24	22	117	499	120	46	10	92%	4.9	20.0%	8.3%	11.7%	2.2%	4.08	3.68	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	BAL	24	22	117	499	120	46	10	92%	4.9	24.0%	9.2%	14.8%	2.0%	4.08	3.34	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	BAL	2	2	12	51	12	5	1	100%	6.1	22.6%	9.1%	13.5%	2.6%	4.13	4.13	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	BAL	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	22.6%	9.1%	13.5%	2.7%	4.19	4.19	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	129	550	132	51	11	—	—	23.9%	9.2%	14.7%	2.1%	4.08	3.72	+1.8
FULL	24	MLB A+C	BAL	—	—	1	5	1	0	0	—	—	22.6%	9.1%	13.5%	2.7%	4.19	3.82	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	BAL	27	27	158	665	152	58	17	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	2.6%	4.10	4.08	+1.5
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	27	27	164	695	160	60	18	100%	6.1	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	2.6%	4.08	4.07	+1.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	28	28	166	701	161	60	19	100%	5.9	23.0%	8.6%	14.3%	2.7%	4.10	4.11	+1.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	28	28	166	701	160	61	20	100%	5.9	22.8%	8.8%	14.1%	2.8%	4.16	4.20	+1.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	26	26	158	669	151	60	20	100%	6.1	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.0%	4.26	4.33	+1.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	25	25	149	629	140	58	20	100%	6.0	22.2%	9.3%	13.0%	3.2%	4.41	4.51	+0.7
2033	31	MLB MLE	BAL	23	23	139	586	128	56	20	100%	6.0	21.8%	9.6%	12.2%	3.4%	4.59	4.71	+0.3
2034	32	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	128	543	116	54	20	100%	6.1	21.4%	10.0%	11.3%	3.6%	4.80	4.94	-0.1
2035	33	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	118	498	104	52	19	100%	5.9	20.9%	10.5%	10.4%	3.9%	5.03	5.19	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	76	321	73	28	9	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	2.7%	4.16	4.14	+0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	19	19	114	481	111	41	13	100%	6.0	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	2.7%	4.14	4.13	+1.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	22	22	131	553	127	48	16	100%	6.0	23.0%	8.6%	14.3%	2.8%	4.17	4.18	+1.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	24	24	141	595	136	52	17	100%	5.9	22.8%	8.8%	14.1%	2.9%	4.23	4.27	+1.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	23	23	140	591	133	53	18	100%	6.1	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	3.1%	4.33	4.40	+0.9
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	22	22	135	570	127	53	19	100%	6.1	22.2%	9.3%	13.0%	3.3%	4.49	4.59	+0.6
2033	31	MLB CTX	BAL	21	21	128	540	118	52	19	100%	6.1	21.8%	9.6%	12.2%	3.5%	4.67	4.79	+0.3
2034	32	MLB CTX	BAL	20	20	119	502	107	50	19	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.0%	11.3%	3.8%	4.89	5.03	-0.1
2035	33	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	110	464	97	49	19	100%	6.1	20.9%	10.5%	10.4%	4.1%	5.13	5.29	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		183	183	1096	4626	1031	427	149	100%	6.0	22.3%	9.2%	13.1%	3.2%	4.47	4.16	+9.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	188	78	27	100%	6.0	22.3%	9.2%	13.1%	3.2%	4.47	4.16	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		71	59	314	1296	282	112	24	83%	4.4	21.7%	8.6%	13.1%	1.8%	3.44	3.37	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	38	200	825	179	71	15	83%	4.4	21.7%	8.6%	13.1%	1.8%	3.44	3.37	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nestor German (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.13	22.6%	9.1%	2.6%	—	4.09	23.0%	14.3%	488	-0.04	—	—	—
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	90
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	84
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	20.9%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.85	20.0%	13.6%	140	-0.63	2.39	485	83
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	83
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	236	83
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.16	17.5%	7.3%	304	+1.22	3.61	547	82
Chad Kuhl R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP	4.03	20.9%	9.6%	2.7%	.311	4.88	21.9%	11.3%	131	+0.85	3.92	983	82
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	82
Michael Kelly R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP-	4.22	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.36	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.14	2.77	666	81
Thomas Harrington R 2023 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	21.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.317	4.48	18.7%	11.9%	314	+0.41	3.33	441	81
Jeff Hoffman R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	18.7%	8.9%	2.4%	.291	4.62	20.9%	11.4%	282	+0.63	1.96	1,067	81
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.8%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	81
Justin Lewis R 2019 · 3.31 FIP	23	SP	3.31	19.6%	10.1%	1.1%	.323	6.84	19.3%	6.2%	98	+3.53	3.31	213	81
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	81
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.29	24.8%	14.4%	148	+0.08	2.00	352	81
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	80
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	820	80
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	80
Cal Quantrill R 2019 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP	3.89	19.6%	6.2%	3.0%	.297	3.87	18.4%	11.7%	368	-0.02	2.02	1,281	80
Jack Cushing R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.66	18.1%	11.3%	332	+0.97	3.69	523	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.5	149	22.4%	9.2%	1.16	4.33
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01