Nestor German — OGILVIE

Nestor German P Norfolk Tides

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION85 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112103vR 94

ERA4.08

FIP4.08

K%22.6%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP69

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF—50

CTRL—50

CMD—50

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$7M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$9M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	22	MIX	2 levels	21	12	74	287	90	17	2	57%	3.5	23.6%	7.0%	16.6%	0.8%	1.59	2.45	—
2024	22	MIX	2 levels	21	12	74	287	90	17	2	57%	3.5	31.4%	5.9%	25.4%	0.7%	1.59	1.70	—
2025	23	MIX	3 levels	26	25	124	510	143	46	13	96%	4.8	22.4%	9.9%	12.6%	1.7%	3.93	3.40	—
2025	23	MIX	3 levels	26	25	124	510	143	46	13	96%	4.8	28.0%	9.0%	19.0%	2.5%	3.93	3.27	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	18	16	85	364	94	32	7	89%	4.7	22.7%	9.2%	13.5%	2.1%	4.11	3.51	+1.6
ROS	24	MLB	BAL	12	12	69	292	66	27	7	100%	5.8	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	2.5%	4.08	4.08	+0.5
ROS	24	MLB	BAL	1	1	7	30	7	3	1	100%	7.0	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	2.5%	4.13	4.13	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB	BAL	—	—	154	656	160	59	14	—	—	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	2.2%	4.10	3.77	+3.0
2026 FULL	24	MLB	BAL	—	—	7	29	7	3	1	—	—	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	2.5%	4.13	3.75	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	BAL	27	27	158	665	152	58	17	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	2.5%	4.06	4.03	+2.5
2028	26	MLB	BAL	27	27	164	695	160	60	18	100%	6.1	23.0%	8.7%	14.4%	2.5%	4.04	4.02	+2.7
2029	27	MLB	BAL	28	28	166	701	161	61	18	100%	5.9	23.0%	8.7%	14.3%	2.6%	4.06	4.07	+2.6
2030	28	MLB	BAL	28	28	166	701	160	62	19	100%	5.9	22.8%	8.8%	14.0%	2.7%	4.12	4.16	+2.4
2031	29	MLB	BAL	26	26	158	669	151	61	19	100%	6.1	22.6%	9.0%	13.5%	2.9%	4.22	4.29	+2.1
2032	30	MLB	BAL	25	25	149	629	140	59	19	100%	6.0	22.2%	9.3%	12.9%	3.1%	4.37	4.47	+1.6
2033	31	MLB	BAL	23	23	139	586	128	57	19	100%	6.0	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	3.3%	4.55	4.67	+1.2
2034	32	MLB	BAL	21	21	128	543	116	55	19	100%	6.1	21.4%	10.1%	11.3%	3.5%	4.76	4.90	+0.8
2035	33	MLB	BAL	20	20	118	498	104	53	19	100%	5.9	20.9%	10.5%	10.3%	3.8%	4.99	5.15	+0.3
2036	34	MLB	BAL	18	18	107	453	92	50	19	100%	6.0	20.3%	11.1%	9.3%	4.1%	5.25	5.42	-0.0
2027	25	MLB	BAL	13	13	76	321	73	28	8	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	2.6%	4.11	4.08	+0.7
2028	26	MLB	BAL	19	19	114	481	111	42	13	100%	6.0	23.0%	8.7%	14.4%	2.6%	4.09	4.07	+1.8
2029	27	MLB	BAL	22	22	131	553	127	48	15	100%	6.0	23.0%	8.7%	14.3%	2.7%	4.11	4.12	+2.0
2030	28	MLB	BAL	24	24	141	595	136	53	17	100%	5.9	22.8%	8.8%	14.0%	2.8%	4.18	4.22	+2.0
2031	29	MLB	BAL	23	23	140	591	133	53	18	100%	6.1	22.6%	9.0%	13.5%	3.0%	4.28	4.35	+1.7
2032	30	MLB	BAL	22	22	135	570	127	53	18	100%	6.1	22.2%	9.3%	12.9%	3.2%	4.43	4.53	+1.4
2033	31	MLB	BAL	21	21	128	540	118	52	18	100%	6.1	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	3.4%	4.62	4.74	+1.0
2034	32	MLB	BAL	20	20	119	502	107	51	18	100%	6.0	21.4%	10.1%	11.3%	3.7%	4.83	4.97	+0.6
2035	33	MLB	BAL	18	18	110	464	97	49	18	100%	6.1	20.9%	10.5%	10.3%	4.0%	5.07	5.23	+0.2
2036	34	MLB	BAL	16	16	96	405	82	45	17	100%	6.0	20.3%	11.1%	9.3%	4.3%	5.33	5.50	-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			200	200	1197	5054	1119	477	162	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.4%	12.7%	3.2%	4.48	4.18	+17.1
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	844	187	80	27	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.4%	12.7%	3.2%	4.48	4.18	+2.9
Career	—			65	53	283	1161	265	104	19	82%	4.3	22.8%	8.9%	13.9%	1.6%	3.37	3.20	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—			46	38	200	821	187	73	13	82%	4.3	22.8%	8.9%	13.9%	1.6%	3.37	3.20	+5.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nestor German (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.08	22.6%	9.2%	2.5%	—	4.04	23.0%	14.2%	488	-0.04	—	—	—
Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	24	SP	4.16	23.3%	11.4%	2.9%	.287	4.01	23.9%	15.4%	393	-0.15	3.80	651	87
Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	24	SP	3.65	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	6.01	18.9%	5.5%	56	+2.36	3.65	287	85
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP-	3.87	20.4%	9.6%	2.3%	.300	4.37	19.6%	9.8%	143	+0.50	3.87	247	85
Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.79 FIP	25	SP	3.79	21.1%	7.1%	2.9%	.244	3.56	23.9%	18.1%	56	-0.23	3.56	167	84
Félix Peña R 2027 · 3.68 FIP	25	SP	3.68	21.0%	9.8%	2.0%	.296	3.92	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.24	2.84	615	83
Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.19 FIP	24	SP	4.19	22.6%	11.4%	2.8%	.291	5.46	18.2%	4.6%	163	+1.27	4.19	285	83
Alex Pham R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP	3.85	22.6%	11.1%	2.3%	.284	3.63	23.5%	11.8%	79	-0.22	3.48	331	83
Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.57 FIP	24	SP	3.57	21.2%	7.7%	2.3%	.319	6.10	15.6%	0.6%	19	+2.53	3.57	252	83
Luke Weaver R 2026 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	19.9%	8.5%	3.1%	.314	3.66	24.1%	18.0%	182	-0.56	2.26	1,022	82
Austin Love R 2025 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP	4.19	20.6%	10.6%	2.7%	.358	3.51	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.68	3.51	220	82
Chad Kuhl R 2026 · 3.93 FIP	24	SP	3.93	20.9%	9.6%	2.5%	.311	4.73	21.9%	11.3%	131	+0.80	3.93	983	82
Gavin Stone R 2026 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	21.9%	10.5%	3.7%	.309	4.02	20.0%	13.6%	140	-0.59	2.39	485	82
Michael Kelly R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP-	4.23	19.6%	10.9%	2.5%	.297	6.28	14.6%	-9.6%	67	+2.05	2.83	666	82
Justin Lewis R 2025 · 3.34 FIP	23	SP	3.34	19.6%	10.1%	1.1%	.323	6.50	19.3%	6.2%	98	+3.16	3.34	213	82
Jeff Hoffman R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP-	3.81	18.7%	8.9%	2.1%	.291	4.36	20.9%	11.4%	282	+0.55	2.11	1,046	81
Dom Hamel R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	24.6%	10.2%	3.2%	.314	5.13	18.6%	6.7%	271	+1.05	3.65	514	81
Blade Tidwell R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	24	SP-	4.07	22.2%	9.9%	2.9%	.295	4.29	22.9%	11.6%	57	+0.22	4.07	408	80
Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP	3.81	19.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.321	5.05	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.24	3.81	171	80
Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	23.0%	8.8%	3.5%	.359	4.87	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.67	4.20	118	80
Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	24	SP	4.43	18.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.271	5.94	20.6%	7.6%	119	+1.51	4.43	358	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11	145	22.3%	9.3%	1.15	4.36
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Wade Miley ('23)	8	136	18.2%	8.5%	1.07	4.20
Zach Davies ('23)	9	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Julio Teheran ('23)	7	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12