Nestor German

P Norfolk Tides

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.5 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP40OGV rank#166ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	21	12	74	1.59	1.70	31.4%	5.9%	—	K 23.6% · BB 7.0% · FIP 2.46
2025	23	MIX3 levels	26	25	124	3.93	3.27	28.0%	9.0%	—	K 22.4% · BB 9.9% · FIP 3.58
2026	24	AAABAL	24	22	117	4.08	3.34	24.0%	9.2%	—	K 20.7% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.61
2027PROJ	25	MLBBAL	2	2	14	4.15	4.15	21.3%	8.6%	0.2
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBBAL	12	12	69	4.21	4.20	21.6%	8.5%	1.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBBAL	13	13	78	4.24	4.25	21.6%	8.5%	1.1

Next 3 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$3M2031Arb-2$4M2032Arb-3$4M

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 75%

CompsRorik Maltrud (age 24) · Félix Peña (age 25) · Wes Parsons (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.15

FIP4.15

K%21.3%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%12.7%

Proj IP144

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$28M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+1.2	$8M	+$5M
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+1.0	$6M	+$3M
2032	Arb-3	$4M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$32M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	12	74	287	90	17	2	57%	3.5	23.6%	7.0%	16.6%	0.8%	1.59	2.46	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	12	74	287	90	17	2	57%	3.5	23.6%	7.0%	16.6%	0.8%	1.59	2.46	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	12	74	287	90	17	2	57%	3.5	31.4%	5.9%	25.4%	0.7%	1.59	1.70	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	124	510	143	46	13	96%	4.8	22.4%	9.9%	12.6%	2.1%	3.93	3.58	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	124	510	143	46	13	96%	4.8	22.4%	9.9%	12.6%	2.1%	3.93	3.58	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	124	510	143	46	13	96%	4.8	28.0%	9.0%	19.0%	2.5%	3.93	3.27	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	24	22	117	499	120	46	10	92%	4.9	20.7%	8.3%	12.4%	2.2%	4.08	3.61	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	24	22	117	499	120	46	10	92%	4.9	20.7%	8.3%	12.4%	2.2%	4.08	3.61	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	24	22	117	499	120	46	10	92%	4.9	24.0%	9.2%	14.8%	2.0%	4.08	3.34	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BAL	2	2	14	59	13	5	1	100%	7.0	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	2.5%	4.15	4.15	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	144	607	131	51	16	100%	6.0	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.6%	4.15	4.14	+2.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	118	499	108	42	13	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.6%	4.17	4.18	+1.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	114	479	103	41	13	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.6%	12.9%	2.8%	4.23	4.27	+1.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	105	444	94	39	13	100%	5.8	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	2.9%	4.33	4.40	+1.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	16	16	95	403	84	37	13	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.1%	11.8%	3.1%	4.48	4.58	+0.9
2033	31	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	85	360	74	34	12	100%	6.1	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	3.3%	4.66	4.78	+0.6
2034	32	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	75	316	63	31	11	100%	6.2	20.1%	9.8%	10.2%	3.6%	4.87	5.01	+0.3
2035	33	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	65	275	54	28	11	100%	5.9	19.6%	10.3%	9.3%	3.9%	5.10	5.26	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	69	291	63	25	8	100%	5.8	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.7%	4.21	4.20	+1.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	78	329	71	28	9	100%	6.0	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.8%	4.24	4.25	+1.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	88	372	80	32	11	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.6%	12.9%	2.9%	4.30	4.34	+1.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	87	367	78	32	11	100%	6.2	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	3.1%	4.40	4.47	+1.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	83	350	73	32	11	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.1%	11.8%	3.3%	4.56	4.66	+0.8
2033	31	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	76	321	66	30	11	100%	5.8	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	3.5%	4.74	4.86	+0.5
2034	32	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	68	287	58	28	11	100%	6.2	20.1%	9.8%	10.2%	3.8%	4.96	5.10	+0.3
2035	33	MLB CTX	BAL	10	10	60	253	50	26	10	100%	6.0	19.6%	10.3%	9.3%	4.0%	5.20	5.36	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	102	609	2572	538	233	83	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.1%	11.9%	3.2%	4.55	4.24	+8.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	177	76	27	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.1%	11.9%	3.2%	4.55	4.24	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		71	59	314	1296	285	112	24	83%	4.4	22.0%	8.6%	13.4%	1.8%	3.44	3.35	+8.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	38	200	825	181	71	15	83%	4.4	22.0%	8.6%	13.4%	1.8%	3.44	3.35	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 117 IPFIP 3.34 → 3.61 (+0.28)K% 24.0% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.05%	—	×0.860	20.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.22%	—	×0.900	8.30%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.20%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.34 → 3.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 91 IPFIP 3.19 → 3.67 (+0.48)K% 26.0% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.02%	—	×0.810	21.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.67%	—	×1.100	9.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷1.248	×1.200	2.08%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 150).

Result: FIP 3.19 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 25 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.26 (+0.88)K% 35.2% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.24%	—	×0.770	27.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.150	10.95%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷1.229	×1.250	1.94%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 146).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 8 IPFIP 6.74 → 7.67 (+0.94)K% 27.8% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.860	23.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×0.900	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	8.33%	÷0.945	×1.100	9.70%

Result: FIP 6.74 → 7.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 48 IPFIP 1.50 → 2.33 (+0.83)K% 30.0% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.740	22.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.37%	—	×1.180	8.69%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.952	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 1.50 → 2.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 25 IPFIP 1.75 → 2.72 (+0.97)K% 34.0% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.02%	—	×0.770	26.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.09%	—	×1.150	3.56%
HR / BF /BF	2.06%	÷1.026	×1.250	2.51%

Result: FIP 1.75 → 2.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nestor German (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	4.19	21.6%	13.0%	375	+0.04	—	—	—
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	85
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	84
Wes Parsons R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP	3.56	18.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.274	4.01	18.5%	6.1%	91	+0.45	3.00	483	83
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	82
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	82
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	82
Tyler Cravy R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP-	3.94	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.305	4.61	18.6%	7.8%	138	+0.67	3.94	276	82
Mike Clevinger R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	22.1%	10.7%	2.6%	.290	3.19	28.1%	19.0%	482	-0.83	2.28	1,236	82
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	81
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	81
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	81
Tyler Stuart R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP	3.53	21.1%	7.4%	2.3%	.319	6.01	15.6%	0.6%	19	+2.48	3.53	252	81
Chris Ellis R 2018 · 3.84 FIP	25	SP-	3.84	19.3%	7.3%	2.6%	.284	5.30	19.2%	7.2%	165	+1.46	3.84	780	81
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	81
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	81
D.J. Brown R 2016 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP-	4.43	16.7%	8.1%	3.1%	.317	4.49	16.3%	9.3%	74	+0.06	4.02	348	81
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	80
Garrett Stallings R 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	20.4%	7.9%	3.5%	.327	3.93	17.6%	10.5%	275	-0.36	3.19	627	80
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	80
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.7	105	21.1%	8.9%	1.13	4.38
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Mike Bielecki ('84-'97, 9 WAR*)	6.2	95	18.4%*	9.1%*	1.15*	4.47*
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Travis Wood ('17)	5.0	124	18.9%	8.7%	1.09	4.26