Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 5 | 3 | 21 | 78 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 60% | 4.1 | 22.8% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 1.31 | 2.52 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 5 | 3 | 21 | 78 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 60% | 4.1 | 30.8% | 9.0% | 21.8% | 0.0% | 1.31 | 1.79 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 24 | 17 | 95 | 393 | 96 | 19 | 10 | 71% | 4.0 | 18.1% | 5.7% | 12.4% | 2.1% | 3.68 | 3.46 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 24 | 17 | 95 | 393 | 96 | 19 | 10 | 71% | 4.0 | 24.4% | 4.8% | 19.6% | 2.5% | 3.68 | 3.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | 21 | 2 | 39 | 158 | 49 | 9 | 5 | 10% | 1.9 | 24.7% | 6.3% | 18.4% | 3.8% | 3.20 | 3.90 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 50 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ATL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 107 | 442 | 99 | 28 | 13 | — | — | 22.5% | 6.3% | 16.2% | 2.9% | 3.93 | 4.18 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 17.7% | 6.7% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 3.97 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 54 | 19 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 55 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 6.9% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 55 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 7.1% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 6.9% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 43 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 7.1% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 123 | 0 | 129 | 543 | 104 | 38 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 3.92 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 162 | 59 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 50 | 22 | 155 | 629 | 128 | 41 | 14 | 44% | 3.1 | 20.3% | 6.5% | 13.9% | 2.3% | 3.24 | 3.45 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 28 | 200 | 810 | 165 | 52 | 18 | 44% | 3.1 | 20.3% | 6.5% | 13.9% | 2.3% | 3.24 | 3.45 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Owen Hackman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.29 | 19.1% | 12.2% | 203 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 89 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 86 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .277 | 3.65 | 19.4% | 11.4% | 83 | -0.37 | 3.43 | 167 | 86 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 85 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 85 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.08 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .319 | 3.46 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.62 | 3.21 | 349 | 83 |
| Steven Bruce R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.70 | 14.9% | 5.0% | 2.2% | .300 | 3.62 | 15.0% | 9.8% | 94 | -0.08 | 3.62 | 148 | 83 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 82 |
| Tyler Mapes R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.22 | 14.6% | 5.2% | 1.2% | .320 | 3.47 | 11.9% | 5.4% | 265 | +0.25 | 3.17 | 489 | 82 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 81 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2029 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 81 |
| Alex Colomé R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.37 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 2.1% | .309 | 2.98 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.39 | 2.72 | 530 | 81 |
| Adam Panayotovich R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.50 | 13.3% | 4.6% | 1.7% | .314 | 5.45 | 9.6% | 0.6% | 64 | +1.95 | 3.50 | 121 | 80 |
| Josh DeGraaf R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.71 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .295 | 4.58 | 17.2% | 10.1% | 121 | +0.87 | 3.71 | 320 | 80 |
| Logan Verrett R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.75 | 18.5% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .277 | 5.30 | 15.8% | 6.3% | 164 | +1.55 | 3.73 | 550 | 80 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.20 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .284 | 4.38 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.18 | 4.20 | 171 | 79 |
| Scott Burke R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.84 | 14.2% | 7.7% | 3.6% | .316 | 5.01 | 14.9% | 6.7% | 61 | +0.17 | 4.84 | 119 | 79 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.44 | 17.1% | 4.4% | 2.2% | .312 | 3.72 | 16.9% | 9.5% | 198 | +0.28 | 3.44 | 302 | 79 |
| Tristan Stevens R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .411 | 3.71 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 91 | -0.57 | 3.71 | 126 | 79 |
| Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.31 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 174 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 18.8% | 6.9% | 1.09 | 4.32 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |