Casey Cobb
P
Greenville Drive
+0.4
WAR
Age 30
RHP
5'10" / 200 lbs
A+
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.0%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%13.9%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 30 | 1 | 74 | 282 | 82 | 15 | 5 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 1.95 | 3.52 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 34 | 2 | 60 | 281 | 57 | 24 | 10 | 15.8% | 9.5% | 4.5% | 6.27 | 5.46 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 29 | 1 | 58 | 259 | 63 | 19 | 11 | 18.7% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 5.62 | 5.66 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 54 | 22 | 7 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 52 | 21 | 7 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 49 | 21 | 7 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 49 | — | 49 | 209 | 47 | 20 | 7 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.62 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 44 | 19 | 7 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 40 | 19 | 7 | 21.6% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 37 | 18 | 6 | 21.2% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 93 | 4 | 192 | 822 | 154 | 66 | 35 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 4.41 | 4.86 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 97 | 4 | 200 | 858 | 161 | 69 | 37 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 4.41 | 4.86 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Casey Cobb (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.1% | — | 4.53 | 22.6% | 13.2% | 155 | +0.14 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 91 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 88 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 87 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 85 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 85 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 85 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.56 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.73 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +1.17 | 2.72 | 392 | 84 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 83 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 82 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 82 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 82 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 82 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 82 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 82 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 81 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.06 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .301 | 3.94 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | -0.12 | 1.69 | 468 | 81 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.84 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .282 | 3.13 | 28.4% | 19.9% | 104 | -0.71 | 2.27 | 445 | 81 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.35 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.44 | 2.91 | 210 | 81 |
| Blake Smith R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.63 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 124 | 80 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.