Jefferson Rojas

SS Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 150 lbs AA H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP45OGV rank#50ETA2028MLB%6%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	19	A+CHC	419	.245/.316/.336	6	21	56	—	.218/.275/.302
2025	20	AA/A+CHC	471	.236/.345/.387	11	19	75	—	.212/.296/.337
2026	21	AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs	580	.273/.337/.509	29	23	105	—	.253/.305/.442
2027PROJ6% MLB	22	MLBNYM	13	.230/.291/.380	0	0	92	0.0
2028PROJ46% MLB	23	MLBNYM	230	.233/.296/.389	7	6	96	0.7
2029PROJ59% MLB	24	MLBNYM	317	.235/.299/.395	10	9	99	1.1

Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$5M2032Arb-2$8M2033Arb-3$11M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

K%89

Whiff%76

ISO72

wRC+70

Z-Con%66

wOBA63

Career WAR2.7 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 41, comp-based) · star 11% · didn't stick 48%

CompsEzequiel Tovar (age 21) · Agustín Ramírez (age 22) · Lastings Milledge (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†92

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .291 / .380

PA13

HR0

K%23

BB%8

BABIP259

ISO147

MLB%6%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$30M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$8M	+$7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$8M	+$8M
2031	Arb-1	$5M	+1.4	$8M	+$5M
2032	Arb-2	$8M	+1.4	$8M	+$3M
2033	Arb-3	$11M	+1.2	$6M	+$0.3M
Totals		$27M		$40M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	169	145	44	6	3	1	16	18	6	15	2	303	395	407	802	103	336	11	9	361	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	307	272	73	14	1	7	23	61	10	13	4	268	348	404	752	136	320	20	7	338	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	419	372	91	10	3	6	35	64	4	21	8	245	316	336	652	91	274	15	8	293	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA	Knoxville Smokies	—	172	146	24	6	0	0	20	34	4	5	0	164	282	205	488	41	211	20	12	238	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	299	252	70	13	4	11	38	47	5	14	3	278	382	492	874	214	299	16	13	382	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	29	26	8	1	0	3	1	8	1	1	0	308	357	692	1.049	385	312	28	3	434	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	525	463	126	27	2	24	46	88	3	20	7	272	337	495	832	222	286	17	9	358	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	26	24	6	2	0	2	2	3	0	2	0	250	308	583	891	333	211	12	8	382	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	169	151	32	4	2	1	10	22	6	15	2	212	287	285	572	73	229	13	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	307	278	63	12	1	6	17	82	10	13	4	227	295	342	637	115	290	27	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	419	381	83	8	3	6	26	81	4	21	8	218	275	302	577	84	245	19	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	172	152	24	6	0	0	14	42	4	5	0	158	247	197	444	39	210	24	8	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	299	264	64	11	4	9	27	57	5	14	3	242	324	417	741	174	270	19	9	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	29	26	7	1	0	2	1	10	1	1	0	269	321	538	860	269	284	34	3	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	525	483	122	25	2	20	33	107	3	20	7	253	304	437	741	184	277	20	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	169	151	32	4	2	1	10	22	6	15	2	212	287	285	572	73	238	13	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	—	169	145	44	6	3	1	16	18	6	15	2	303	395	407	802	103	336	11	9	361	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	307	278	63	12	1	6	17	82	10	13	4	227	295	342	637	115	297	27	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	307	272	73	14	1	7	23	61	10	13	4	268	348	404	752	136	320	20	7	338	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	419	381	83	8	3	6	26	81	4	21	8	218	275	302	577	84	255	19	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	419	372	91	10	3	6	35	64	4	21	8	245	316	336	652	91	274	15	8	293	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	471	416	89	18	4	9	41	99	9	19	3	214	298	341	640	127	256	21	9	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	471	398	94	19	4	11	58	81	9	19	3	236	345	387	732	151	267	17	12	329	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	580	534	135	27	2	23	35	122	4	23	7	253	304	440	744	187	283	21	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA RAW	3 teams	—	580	513	140	30	2	29	49	99	4	23	7	273	337	509	846	236	283	17	8	363	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	169	151	32	4	2	1	10	22	6	15	2	212	287	285	572	73	229	13	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	307	277	63	12	1	6	17	82	10	13	4	227	295	343	638	116	290	27	6	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	419	386	83	8	3	6	26	81	4	21	8	215	275	298	573	83	245	19	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	471	418	89	18	4	9	41	99	9	19	3	213	298	340	638	127	248	21	9	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	580	536	135	27	2	23	35	122	4	23	7	252	304	438	742	187	277	21	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	419	386	83	8	3	6	26	81	4	21	8	215	275	298	573	83	245	19	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	471	418	89	18	4	9	41	99	9	19	3	213	298	340	638	127	248	21	9	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	3 teams	—	580	536	135	27	2	23	35	122	4	23	7	252	304	438	742	187	277	21	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYM	6%	643	587	139	26	4	19	45	125	6	17	5	236	297	390	687	153	267	19	7	305	92	-6	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	NYM	6%	13	12	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	230	291	380	671	150	259	23	8	298	92	-0	+0	-0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYM	46%	504	458	111	21	3	16	36	97	5	14	4	240	302	399	701	159	269	19	7	311	96	-2	+1	-1	+5	+11	1.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYM	59%	537	488	118	22	3	17	39	103	5	15	4	242	305	405	710	163	271	19	7	314	99	-1	+1	-0	+6	+12	1.8
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYM	65%	560	507	123	23	3	18	42	108	6	15	4	243	307	407	714	164	272	19	8	316	100	+0	+1	+0	+6	+12	2.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYM	68%	578	523	128	24	3	19	44	112	6	15	4	243	308	407	715	164	273	19	8	317	100	+0	+1	+0	+6	+13	2.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYM	68%	582	527	128	24	3	19	44	114	6	15	4	242	308	405	712	163	273	20	8	316	100	-0	+1	+0	+6	+13	2.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYM	68%	576	522	125	23	3	18	44	114	5	12	4	240	306	400	706	160	273	20	8	313	98	-1	+1	-1	+6	+12	1.8
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYM	66%	562	510	122	23	3	17	42	113	5	10	3	238	303	394	698	156	272	20	7	310	96	-3	+1	-1	+6	+12	1.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	NYM	66%	550	499	118	22	3	16	41	113	5	7	3	235	300	387	687	152	270	21	7	305	93	-5	+0	-2	+6	+12	1.1
2036	31	MLB MLE	NYM	71%	533	485	112	21	2	15	39	111	4	3	2	231	295	378	673	146	268	21	7	300	89	-7	-0	-3	+6	+12	0.7
2037	32	MLB MLE	NYM	74%	511	465	105	19	2	14	37	109	4	3	2	226	289	366	655	139	264	21	7	292	84	-10	-0	-3	+5	+11	0.3
2038	33	MLB MLE	NYM	77%	475	435	96	17	2	12	34	104	3	2	1	220	282	351	632	131	260	22	7	283	78	-13	+0	-4	+5	+10	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYM	46%	230	210	49	9	1	7	16	44	2	6	2	233	296	389	685	156	260	19	7	304	96	-1	+0	-0	+2	+5	0.7
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYM	59%	317	288	68	12	2	10	23	61	3	9	2	235	299	395	694	159	262	19	7	308	99	-0	+1	-0	+3	+7	1.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYM	65%	366	332	78	14	2	12	27	70	4	10	3	236	301	397	698	161	263	19	7	309	100	+0	+1	+0	+4	+8	1.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYM	68%	395	358	84	15	2	13	30	77	4	10	3	236	302	397	699	161	264	19	8	310	100	+0	+1	+0	+4	+9	1.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYM	68%	396	359	84	15	2	13	30	78	4	10	3	235	301	395	696	159	264	20	8	309	100	-0	+1	+0	+4	+9	1.4
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYM	68%	392	355	83	15	2	12	30	78	4	8	3	234	300	390	690	157	264	20	8	306	98	-1	+0	-0	+4	+8	1.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYM	66%	374	340	78	14	2	11	28	75	3	6	2	231	297	385	682	153	263	20	7	303	96	-2	+0	-1	+4	+8	1.0
2035	30	MLB CTX	NYM	66%	361	328	76	14	2	11	27	74	3	5	2	229	294	377	671	149	261	20	7	299	93	-3	+0	-1	+4	+8	0.8
2036	31	MLB CTX	NYM	71%	377	343	78	14	2	11	28	79	3	2	2	225	289	368	657	143	259	21	7	293	89	-5	-0	-2	+4	+8	0.5
2037	32	MLB CTX	NYM	74%	380	346	77	14	2	10	28	81	3	2	1	220	283	356	639	136	256	21	7	286	84	-7	+0	-3	+4	+8	0.2
2038	33	MLB CTX	NYM	77%	364	332	70	12	1	9	26	80	3	2	1	214	276	342	618	128	251	22	7	277	78	-10	+0	-3	+4	+8	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3952	3591	825	148	20	119	293	797	36	70	24	230	294	382	676	152	262	20	7	300	90	-29	+4	-11	+42	+86	9.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	135	24	3	20	48	131	6	12	4	228	293	381	674	152	260	20	7	300	90	-5	+1	-2	+7	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	8124	7370	1732	316	43	232	586	1645	89	208	61	235	299	384	683	149	270	20	7	301	90	-43	+9	-15	+66	+134	15.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	138	25	3	19	47	132	7	17	5	234	299	383	682	149	268	20	7	301	90	-5	+1	-2	+7	+14	1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 525 PAwOBA .352 → .319 (−33)K% 16.8% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.76%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	20.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.57%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	6.30%
HBP% /PA	0.57%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.51%
Singles /BIP	19.47%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.994	×1.050	19.71%
Doubles /BIP	7.20%	÷1.000	×0.860	×0.994	×1.050	6.46%
Triples /BIP	0.53%	÷1.000	×0.950	×0.994	×1.050	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	6.40%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.050	5.24%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .352 → .319; ISO .222 → .192; BABIP .286 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 29 PAwOBA .435 → .357 (−78)K% 27.6% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.59%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	33.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.45%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	2.50%
HBP% /PA	3.45%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	3.40%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×1.050	21.70%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.050	4.84%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	16.67%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	12.25%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .435 → .357; ISO .385 → .283; BABIP .312 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+South Bend Cubs · 299 PAwOBA .376 → .319 (−57)K% 15.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.72%	÷1.051	×1.270	—	—	18.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.71%	÷1.042	×0.710	—	×1.042	9.03%
HBP% /PA	1.67%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	1.38%
Singles /BIP	20.49%	÷1.021	×0.920	×0.992	×1.042	19.08%
Doubles /BIP	6.34%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.992	×1.042	5.31%
Triples /BIP	1.95%	÷0.900	×0.850	×0.992	×1.042	1.91%
Home runs /BIP	5.37%	÷1.106	×0.800	—	×1.042	4.04%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 110, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .376 → .319; ISO .214 → .178; BABIP .299 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 172 PAwOBA .235 → .211 (−24)K% 19.8% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.77%	÷0.994	×1.220	—	—	24.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.63%	÷0.988	×0.680	—	×1.050	8.40%
HBP% /PA	2.33%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	2.05%
Singles /BIP	16.07%	÷0.996	×0.920	×1.007	×1.050	15.69%
Doubles /BIP	5.36%	÷0.910	×0.910	×1.007	×1.050	5.66%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.880	×1.007	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.911	×0.800	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .235 → .211; ISO .041 → .044; BABIP .211 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 419 PAwOBA .291 → .251 (−40)K% 15.3% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.27%	÷1.005	×1.270	—	—	19.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.35%	÷1.021	×0.710	—	×1.050	6.10%
HBP% /PA	0.95%	—	×0.790	—	×1.050	0.79%
Singles /BIP	23.38%	÷1.009	×0.920	×0.951	×1.050	21.29%
Doubles /BIP	3.25%	÷1.034	×0.810	×0.951	×1.050	2.54%
Triples /BIP	0.97%	÷0.979	×0.850	×0.951	×1.050	0.84%
Home runs /BIP	1.95%	÷0.909	×0.800	—	×1.050	1.80%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 96, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .291 → .251; ISO .091 → .080; BABIP .274 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 307 PAwOBA .331 → .276 (−55)K% 19.9% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.87%	÷1.011	×1.360	—	—	26.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.49%	÷0.967	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.61%
HBP% /PA	3.26%	—	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.67%
Singles /BIP	24.17%	÷1.046	×0.920	×0.993	×1.050	22.15%
Doubles /BIP	6.64%	÷0.975	×0.830	×0.993	×1.050	5.88%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.993	×1.050	0.39%
Home runs /BIP	3.32%	÷0.957	×0.800	—	×1.050	2.91%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 109, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .331 → .276; ISO .136 → .113; BABIP .320 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Cubs Blue · 169 PAwOBA .354 → .246 (−108)K% 10.7% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.65%	÷1.001	×1.220	—	—	12.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.88%	÷1.096	×0.700	—	×1.022	5.80%
HBP% /PA	3.55%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	2.54%
Singles /BIP	26.77%	÷1.001	×0.680	×0.998	×1.022	18.56%
Doubles /BIP	4.72%	÷0.932	×0.600	×0.998	×1.022	3.10%
Triples /BIP	2.36%	÷0.983	×0.600	×0.998	×1.022	1.47%
Home runs /BIP	0.79%	÷0.935	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.40%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 100, 2B 86, 3B 97, K 100, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .354 → .246; ISO .103 → .067; BABIP .336 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Orlando Cabrera'97-'11 * career totals — 14 seasons, 8,255 PA	12.4	8,255	123	216	262*	308*	381*	+84	+5	19.8	19.1
/162	664	10	17	+6.8	+0.4	1.6	pk7: 18
#2Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#3Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	5.5	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
/162	664	23	11	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17
#4Greg Gagne'83-'97 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,207 PA	9.3	6,207	111	108	249*	297*	394*	+65	+26	13.2	13.0
/162	664	12	12	+6.9	+2.8	1.4	pk7: 13
#5Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	6.0	3,964	119	71	237	298	392	+42	-2	12.6	11.3
/162	664	20	12	+7.1	-0.4	2.1	pk7: 10
#6Alex Gonzalez'94-'06 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,528 PA	8.3	5,528	137	97	232*	290*	379*	+55	+6	8.3	10.0
/162	664	16	12	+6.6	+0.8	1.0	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jefferson Rojas (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	234/295/386	152	267	6	6	19%	7%	92	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ezequiel Tovar 2023 · MLB	21	50→49	49→55	54→50	42	253/296/401	148	300	16	18	22%	5%	95	+1.0	244/280/395	151	314	16	10	27%	4%	88	+0.4	240/274/388	149	310	15	8	27%	4%	85	+0.2
✕Agustín Ramírez 2024 · AA	22	44→48	48→55	48→55	47	226/286/366	140	275	16	10	24%	8%	84	+0.1	237/299/402	165	282	19	17	22%	7%	97	+1.1	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
✕Lastings Milledge 2009 · MLB	24	52→61	48→50	51→55	47	260/324/404	144	300	15	20	19%	6%	107	+1.8	265/318/378	113	308	10	18	17%	6%	97	+1.1	266/317/367	102	308	8	19	16%	6%	94	+0.6
✕Masyn Winn 2024 · MLB	22	47→53	46→50	59→55	46	231/290/362	131	284	12	21	23%	7%	84	+0.1	247/304/374	127	293	12	12	19%	7%	92	+0.7	248/309/365	117	296	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
●Vaughn Grissom 2023 · MLB	22	56→65	48→50	54→55	47	277/339/417	140	321	15	19	19%	6%	115	+2.4	264/329/386	122	318	11	15	19%	7%	104	+1.6	259/326/374	115	315	9	13	20%	8%	98	+0.8
✕Luis Juarez 2012 · AAA	22	49→57	47→45	46→40	45	247/288/380	133	275	15	9	17%	5%	87	+0.4	247/290/365	118	285	11	7	17%	5%	84	+0.2	261/309/379	118	281	13	3	12%	6%	93	+0.5
✕Noelvi Marte 2024 · MLB	22	50→55	48→50	52→55	47	247/311/388	140	308	15	19	24%	8%	98	+1.2	242/287/373	131	305	14	18	25%	5%	85	+0.2	241/280/371	130	301	15	19	24%	4%	81	-0.0
●Miguel Vargas 2022 · AA	22	52→54	50→55	51→50	45	260/311/412	152	306	17	9	21%	6%	103	+1.6	238/317/395	157	283	16	12	21%	9%	101	+1.4	226/328/409	183	251	21	13	19%	12%	110	+2.0
✕Brendan Rodgers 2020 · MLB	23	50→55	47→50	47→45	41	247/295/386	139	307	15	7	25%	5%	91	+0.7	250/300/391	141	303	15	4	22%	6%	95	+0.9	257/312/394	138	302	14	0	19%	6%	101	+1.0
✕Henry Davis 2023 · AA	23	46→47	49→50	52→50	42	230/312/381	150	296	16	13	27%	6%	98	+1.2	223/306/371	148	287	17	12	27%	8%	93	+0.8	210/295/352	142	268	18	11	27%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Connor Norby 2023 · AAA	23	46→51	52→55	49→50	45	236/302/402	166	297	20	12	27%	7%	98	+1.2	247/306/406	159	329	18	11	29%	7%	100	+1.3	247/320/404	157	334	17	14	30%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Alberto Carreon 2010 · AAA	22	46→56	45	43→50	48	225/296/348	123	253	13	10	17%	6%	84	+0.1	242/295/324	82	298	5	9	19%	5%	76	-0.4	274/332/381	107	344	7	11	21%	5%	100	+0.8
✕Ronny Cedeno 2006 · MLB	23	59→60	46→45	51→50	47	290/332/416	126	324	13	16	15%	5%	112	+2.2	263/298/377	114	311	11	11	18%	4%	89	+0.5	253/297/377	125	295	14	9	19%	5%	89	+0.3
✕Lewis Brinson 2017 · AAA	23	48→55	51→55	52→50	40	243/287/408	165	311	18	15	28%	5%	94	+0.9	221/272/370	149	289	16	12	28%	5%	79	-0.2	235/276/408	173	305	22	8	30%	5%	88	+0.2
✕Addison Russell 2015 · AA	21	49→52	51→55	53→50	45	247/308/415	168	312	18	13	26%	7%	103	+1.6	240/302/401	161	300	18	7	25%	7%	98	+1.2	236/301/401	165	290	19	5	25%	7%	99	+1.1
●Omar Infante 2005 · MLB	23	50→60	47→55	50	48	250/302/397	146	290	14	13	19%	7%	96	+1.0	246/290/385	139	284	12	11	18%	6%	88	+0.5	285/317/412	127	305	11	9	10%	4%	105	+1.6
●Bo Bichette 2020 · MLB	22	55→62	51→60	52→55	45	274/322/446	172	332	16	21	22%	6%	115	+2.4	283/327/467	184	336	21	18	22%	6%	122	+3.0	296/338/473	177	346	22	13	20%	5%	129	+3.8
●Logan O'Hoppe 2022 · AAA	22	44→48	48→55	46→45	43	226/277/363	137	270	17	7	24%	6%	80	-0.2	240/312/419	179	282	24	6	24%	8%	106	+1.8	242/317/431	188	286	27	4	25%	8%	110	+1.4
✕Eguy Rosario 2023 · AAA	23	48→54	48→55	52→55	45	238/301/386	148	304	14	21	26%	7%	94	+0.9	222/284/374	152	291	16	17	28%	7%	85	+0.2	202/265/351	149	268	17	17	30%	7%	70	-0.4
●Alejandro Kirk 2021 · MLB	22	52→57	46→50	49→40	55	253/327/392	139	286	12	5	16%	9%	105	+1.7	260/338/400	140	280	16	2	13%	10%	111	+2.1	263/347/394	131	277	16	0	11%	10%	113	+1.5

Jefferson Rojas

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps