Josiah Ragsdale

OF Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 23 L/L 6'0" / 185 lbs A+ HR +10%K +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP45OGV rank#111ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ACarolina Mudc…	92	.300/.413/.314	0	9	101	—	.288/.380/.300
2026	22	AA/A+2 orgs	524	.295/.418/.536	24	37	113	—	.247/.344/.438
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBMIL	9	.230/.325/.414	0	0	109	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBMIL	207	.233/.327/.419	8	6	110	0.7
2029PROJ63% MLB	25	MLBMIL	303	.234/.327/.420	12	9	111	1.1

Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$3M2034Arb-2$4M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Speed92

BB%78

Chase%78

ISO67

wOBA63

wRC+54

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 20, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 68%

CompsOneil Cruz (age 23) · Josh Lowe (age 24) · Matt McLain (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†109

AVG/OBP/SLG.230 / .325 / .414

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP291

ISO187

MLB%4%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$44M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$4M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$25M	+$20M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	92	70	21	1	0	0	16	15	1	9	3	300	413	314	727	14	382	16	17	340	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	260	213	56	7	1	17	42	71	3	13	1	263	391	545	936	282	307	27	16	406	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	264	214	70	18	2	7	44	64	3	24	2	327	445	528	973	201	438	24	17	427	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	92	80	23	1	0	0	11	20	1	9	3	287	380	300	680	13	386	22	12	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	260	225	49	6	1	14	30	87	3	13	1	218	318	440	758	222	273	33	12	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	264	229	63	15	2	6	31	81	3	24	2	275	369	437	806	162	386	31	12	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	92	80	23	1	0	0	11	20	1	9	3	287	380	300	680	13	383	22	12	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	—	92	70	21	1	0	0	16	15	1	9	3	300	413	314	727	14	382	16	17	340	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	524	454	110	20	3	19	61	168	6	37	3	242	340	425	765	183	337	32	12	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	524	427	126	25	3	24	86	135	6	37	3	295	418	536	955	241	376	26	16	417	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	92	80	23	1	0	0	11	20	1	9	3	287	380	300	680	13	386	22	12	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	524	452	110	20	3	19	61	168	6	37	3	243	340	427	767	184	330	32	12	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	92	80	23	1	0	0	11	20	1	9	3	287	380	300	680	13	386	22	12	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	524	452	110	20	3	19	61	168	6	37	3	243	340	427	767	184	330	32	12	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	MIL	4%	525	456	106	19	2	20	59	149	5	17	2	232	326	412	738	180	295	28	11	329	109	+5	+3	+1	-3	+11	0.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	MIL	4%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	230	325	414	739	184	291	33	11	329	109	+0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIL	44%	466	406	95	17	2	18	52	130	5	15	2	234	328	416	745	182	296	28	11	331	110	+6	+2	+1	-3	+10	1.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIL	63%	482	421	99	18	2	18	53	133	5	15	2	235	329	418	747	183	296	28	11	332	111	+6	+2	+1	-3	+10	1.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIL	72%	488	426	100	18	2	18	54	133	5	15	2	236	328	417	746	182	295	27	11	331	110	+6	+2	+1	-3	+11	1.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIL	74%	487	426	100	18	2	18	53	132	5	14	2	235	327	414	741	179	294	27	11	330	109	+5	+2	+1	-3	+11	1.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIL	75%	482	422	98	18	2	17	52	131	5	13	2	234	324	409	733	175	293	27	11	327	107	+4	+2	-0	-3	+10	1.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIL	74%	474	416	96	17	2	17	51	130	4	12	2	231	321	402	724	171	292	27	11	323	105	+3	+2	-1	-3	+10	1.1
2034	30	MLB MLE	MIL	73%	465	408	94	17	2	16	50	129	4	11	2	228	318	394	712	166	289	28	11	318	101	+1	+1	-1	-3	+10	0.8
2035	31	MLB MLE	MIL	72%	453	398	90	16	2	15	48	128	4	9	2	224	313	384	697	160	286	28	11	312	97	-1	+1	-2	-3	+10	0.5
2036	32	MLB MLE	MIL	72%	443	390	85	15	1	14	46	127	4	8	2	218	307	371	677	153	281	29	10	304	92	-4	+1	-3	-3	+10	0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIL	44%	207	180	42	7	1	8	23	58	2	6	1	233	327	419	746	186	291	28	11	331	110	+3	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIL	63%	303	263	61	10	1	12	34	84	3	9	1	234	327	420	748	186	291	28	11	332	111	+4	+1	+0	-2	+7	1.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIL	72%	350	305	72	12	2	14	39	96	3	11	2	234	327	419	746	185	291	27	11	331	110	+4	+1	+1	-2	+8	1.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIL	74%	359	313	73	12	2	14	39	98	4	11	2	234	325	416	742	182	290	27	11	330	109	+4	+1	+1	-2	+8	1.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIL	75%	361	316	74	12	2	14	39	98	3	10	1	232	323	411	734	178	289	27	11	326	107	+3	+2	-0	-2	+8	1.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIL	74%	349	306	70	12	1	13	37	96	3	9	1	230	320	404	724	174	287	28	11	323	105	+2	+1	-1	-2	+8	0.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	MIL	73%	339	297	67	11	1	12	36	94	3	8	1	226	316	396	712	169	285	28	11	318	101	+1	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	MIL	72%	328	287	64	11	1	11	35	92	3	7	1	222	312	385	697	163	282	28	11	312	97	-1	+1	-2	-2	+7	0.4
2036	32	MLB CTX	MIL	72%	320	281	61	10	1	11	33	92	3	6	1	217	305	372	677	155	277	29	10	304	92	-3	+1	-2	-2	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2916	2548	584	97	12	109	315	808	27	77	11	229	320	405	725	176	288	28	11	323	106	+16	+11	-3	-17	+63	7.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	568	131	22	3	24	70	180	6	17	2	231	321	407	728	176	291	28	11	323	106	+4	+2	-1	-4	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	5066	4429	1033	183	21	178	555	1421	50	165	25	233	325	405	730	171	300	28	11	325	106	+27	+16	-4	-27	+96	11.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	568	133	23	3	23	71	182	6	21	3	234	325	407	732	173	301	28	11	325	106	+4	+2	-1	-4	+14	1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 264 PAwOBA .418 → .342 (−76)K% 24.2% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.24%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	30.79%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.67%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.998	11.81%
HBP% /PA	1.14%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	0.90%
Singles /BIP	28.67%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.007	×0.998	26.50%
Doubles /BIP	12.00%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.007	×0.998	9.77%
Triples /BIP	1.33%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.007	×0.998	1.14%
Home runs /BIP	4.67%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.998	3.73%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .418 → .342; ISO .201 → .162; BABIP .438 → .386. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 260 PAwOBA .398 → .326 (−72)K% 27.3% → 33.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.31%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	33.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.15%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.027	11.61%
HBP% /PA	1.15%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	1.03%
Singles /BIP	21.83%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.977	×1.027	20.15%
Doubles /BIP	4.93%	÷1.000	×0.840	×0.977	×1.027	4.15%
Triples /BIP	0.70%	÷1.000	×0.940	×0.977	×1.027	0.66%
Home runs /BIP	11.97%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	9.84%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .398 → .326; ISO .282 → .231; BABIP .307 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACarolina Mudcats · 92 PAwOBA .333 → .317 (−16)K% 16.3% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.30%	÷1.033	×1.360	—	—	21.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.39%	÷0.981	×0.690	—	—	12.23%
HBP% /PA	1.09%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.85%
Singles /BIP	36.36%	÷0.948	×0.920	×1.050	—	37.04%
Doubles /BIP	1.82%	÷1.002	×0.830	×1.050	—	1.58%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.050	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.214	×0.800	—	—	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 90, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 107, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .333 → .317; ISO .014 → .014; BABIP .382 → .386. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Eric Byrneslast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,440 PA	5.2	3,440	106	125	260	321	441	-21	+3	14.9	15.2
/162	664	20	24	-4.1	+0.6	2.9	pk7: 16
#2Mike Davis'80-'89 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,298 PA	5.0	3,298	91	134	256*	313*	432*	-31	+13	11.4	12.4
/162	664	18	27	-6.2	+2.5	2.3	pk7: 13
#3Mark Whiten'90-'00 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,521 PA	5.3	3,521	105	78	251*	332*	421*	-35	+22	11.8	11.5
/162	664	20	15	-6.6	+4.2	2.2	pk7: 11
#4Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.4	2,924	104	77	232	319	404	-18	+14	8.9	8.4
/162	664	24	17	-4.0	+3.1	2.0	pk7: 8
#5Leroy Stanton'70-'78 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,883 PA	4.3	2,883	77	36	245*	314*	430*	-33	-1	6.5	7.8
/162	664	18	8	-7.7	-0.2	1.5	pk7: 9
#6Chas McCormicklast yr '25 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,567 PA	2.4	1,567	56	37	247	321	413	+2	+14	7.3	7.3
/162	664	24	16	+0.8	+6.0	3.1	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Josiah Ragsdale (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	230/324/408	178	295	8	7	28%	11%	109	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Oneil Cruz 2022 · AAA	23	50→57	54→60	57→60	41	254/303/442	188	332	22	21	30%	6%	107	+1.9	239/302/430	191	317	23	20	30%	8%	104	+1.6	242/319/436	194	325	25	34	32%	10%	113	+2.0
●Josh Lowe 2022 · AAA	24	48→57	51→55	58→60	46	239/306/402	163	322	19	25	31%	9%	99	+1.3	253/309/420	167	358	18	28	32%	7%	104	+1.6	254/307/424	170	356	18	33	32%	7%	104	+1.4
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	41→51	50→55	59→55	48	209/297/370	161	292	17	24	33%	10%	89	+0.5	248/327/426	178	332	20	21	29%	9%	113	+2.3	229/312/388	159	300	18	22	28%	9%	98	+1.1
★Rickie Weeks Jr. 2006 · MLB	23	49→58	54→55	59→55	49	249/340/438	188	306	20	19	24%	9%	120	+2.8	251/351/417	166	310	16	23	23%	10%	120	+2.8	256/348/440	184	314	21	11	24%	10%	125	+3.4
✕Akil Baddoo 2022 · MLB	23	50→53	50	58→55	49	248/318/415	167	325	17	20	28%	9%	106	+1.8	229/307/372	143	303	14	23	27%	10%	93	+0.8	213/293/369	156	278	16	28	28%	10%	85	+0.2
●Corbin Carroll 2023 · MLB	22	52→53	58→60	62→60	48	258/340/480	222	335	23	25	29%	9%	130	+3.5	251/333/465	214	290	24	34	22%	9%	124	+3.1	245/330/467	222	275	25	37	21%	10%	124	+3.4
✕Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	42→46	50→55	54→50	49	211/301/366	155	290	17	16	32%	10%	90	+0.6	217/302/391	174	272	21	10	27%	10%	96	+1.0	206/293/384	178	246	22	6	26%	10%	92	+0.5
✕Anthony Volpe 2024 · MLB	23	42→50	52→55	58→55	48	218/296/393	175	269	19	27	26%	9%	94	+0.9	225/286/370	145	282	14	22	25%	7%	84	+0.2	226/286/365	138	282	13	24	24%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Austin Wells 2023 · AA	24	43→44	52→55	57→50	48	221/305/386	165	294	19	14	30%	10%	96	+1.0	218/292/386	168	268	20	8	26%	9%	91	+0.7	211/285/386	175	250	21	5	25%	8%	89	+0.4
●Jakob Marsee 2024 · AA	23	47→49	47→45	58→60	58	234/337/363	130	285	15	28	22%	12%	103	+1.5	219/318/347	128	277	12	34	24%	11%	92	+0.7	217/321/350	133	273	12	37	23%	11%	92	+0.8
✕Daulton Varsho 2020 · AA	24	49→50	51→60	55→50	46	248/306/409	161	285	19	19	20%	6%	101	+1.4	236/301/422	186	274	22	15	22%	8%	102	+1.5	227/293/421	194	258	25	15	23%	8%	100	+1.1
✕Tyler Black 2024 · AAA	24	51→53	48→50	63→60	54	248/344/409	162	313	13	33	23%	11%	115	+2.4	235/325/365	130	309	11	28	25%	10%	98	+1.2	225/318/339	114	302	9	27	26%	10%	86	+0.2
✕Ryan Kalish 2011 · MLB	23	51→53	48→50	57→55	49	254/316/397	143	308	15	23	22%	8%	101	+1.4	234/291/348	114	301	11	21	25%	7%	81	-0.1	217/264/312	94	293	8	20	27%	6%	59	-0.9
✕Josh Smith 2022 · AA	24	50→53	50→45	56→50	48	247/333/406	159	303	17	23	24%	8%	111	+2.1	232/323/356	124	290	11	13	22%	9%	96	+1.0	240/326/364	124	289	12	10	20%	9%	98	+0.9
●CJ Abrams 2024 · MLB	23	50→53	47→60	62→60	43	250/298/393	143	290	14	34	19%	4%	94	+0.9	251/312/436	185	291	20	30	21%	6%	109	+2.0	252/319/452	200	292	23	30	22%	7%	117	+2.7
✕Dustin Harris 2022 · A	23	51→58	51→50	55→60	46	258/315/416	158	303	19	16	22%	7%	106	+1.8	233/303/380	147	291	16	24	25%	8%	93	+0.8	253/317/371	118	309	11	34	21%	7%	94	+0.7
★Gunnar Henderson 2024 · MLB	23	49→56	55→60	55	49	250/326/449	199	320	22	13	28%	10%	117	+2.6	259/334/459	200	307	23	17	23%	9%	123	+3.0	252/331/444	192	295	22	17	22%	9%	119	+3.2
●Chris Young 2006 · AA	22	46→48	56→60	55	47	238/309/441	203	302	22	23	28%	9%	110	+2.1	236/301/437	201	274	23	20	23%	8%	106	+1.8	238/319/427	189	288	21	17	24%	10%	111	+2.3
✕Graham Pauley 2024 · AA	23	50→52	52→55	53→50	48	253/317/427	174	298	20	14	22%	8%	109	+2.0	220/288/373	153	268	17	10	24%	8%	86	+0.3	202/274/352	149	245	16	9	24%	8%	75	-0.3
●Edouard Julien 2022 · A	23	46→55	49→50	54→50	53	213/329/370	157	343	17	20	38%	14%	101	+1.4	238/346/391	153	355	17	14	33%	13%	112	+2.2	237/347/385	148	347	17	11	33%	14%	110	+1.8

Josiah Ragsdale

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps