Graham Pauley

3B Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 26 L/R 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA HR -10%H -3% Svc 1.639 · Ctrl thru 2031
Overview
AAA40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202423AAA/AAMIA481.229/.336/.39314769—.196/.275/.324
202423MLBSD32.125/.125/.3122011-0.2
202524AAAMIA155.263/.344/.5118587—.213/.279/.397
202524MLBMIA184.224/.313/.36642991.2
202625AAAMIA193.236/.337/.4367666—.192/.268/.337
202625MLBMIA154.211/.258/.3734180-0.0
2027PROJ45% MLB26MLBMIA107.206/.279/.36132860.1
2028PROJ56% MLB27MLBMIA162.205/.278/.35952850.2
2029PROJ62% MLB28MLBMIA185.203/.275/.35452840.1
Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2031Service1.639First FA2032
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$0.8M2030Arb-2$0.8M2031Arb-3$0.8M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Bat Spd59
Barrel%33
Speed27
xwOBA16
Avg EV10
Form.220/.288/.413 ▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .214/.284/.380
CompsCésar Salazar (age 27) · Quincy Hamilton (age 26) · Devin Mann (age 26)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 8086vR 88
AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .279 / .361
PA107
HR3
K%23
BB%8
BABIP243
ISO146
MLB%45%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-4BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.8 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: +0.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +5.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.50+0.5WAR
0.00.51.00.20.20.10.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 40
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT40
xAVG
100.207
POWER40
Barrel%
336.0
Avg EV
1085.6
Bat Spd
5972.3
EYE50
scouting grade only
SPEED45
Sprint
2726.4
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%24%▼26% over 39 PA (60d) · proj 24%
BB%8%·8% over 39 PA (60d) · proj 8%
ISO.193▲.324 over 34 AB (60d) · proj .166
BABIP.253·.286 over 21 BIP (60d) · proj .253
SLASH.220/.288/.413▲proj .214/.284/.380
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 269 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
24
245
—
wRC+
115
74
◀◀L
wOBA
338
277
◀◀L
ISO
111
146
▶▶R
BABIP
250
257
—
K%
8.3%
25.7%
◀◀L
BB%
20.8%
7.8%
◀◀L
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2024
Service   1.639 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.9M+$0.1M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.2$0.7M+$0.0M
2029Arb-1$0.8M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Arb-2$0.8M———
2031Arb-3$0.8M———
Totals $2M $2M +$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202221 ALake Elsinore Storm — 7258 19402 12102 63 328458500958 172370 1417 429 115 — — — — — —
202221 ROKACL Padres — 5747 10312 970 00 213339447786 234205 1216 343 46 — — — — — —
202322 AASan Antonio Missions — 8881 261003 7120 20 321375556931 235348 148 406 117 — — — — — —
202322 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps — 187170 518016 13413 82 300360629990 329307 227 424 126 — — — — — —
202322 ALake Elsinore Storm — 276230 711454 40405 123 309422465887 157360 1414 396 103 — — — — — —
202322 INTLPeoria Javelinas — 9084 20405 4180 40 238273464737 226238 204 314 99 — — — — — —
202423 MLBSan Diego Padres — 3232 4002 0150 00 125125312438 188133 470 187 11 -3 +0 -1 +2 +1 -0.2
202423 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 321272 6115110 40677 34 224339397736 173259 2112 332 72 — — — — — —
202423 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos — 160138 33804 18351 40 239331384715 145284 2211 318 63 — — — — — —
202524 MLBMiami Marlins — 184161 36914 21360 20 224313366680 143262 2011 305 99 -0 +0 +6 +1 +4 1.2
202524 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 155137 361008 14183 50 263344511855 248250 129 373 87 — — — — — —
202625 MLBMiami Marlins — 154142 30914 8371 11 211258373632 162255 245 275 80 -4 -0 -1 +1 +3 -0.0
202625 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 193165 391017 24511 61 236337436773 200291 2612 339 66 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 370335 7018210 29881 31 209274364638 155251 248 282 77 -10 +0 +4 +4 +8 0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202221 A MLELake Elsinore Storm — 7262 17302 8142 63 274375419794 145318 1911 338 115 — — — — — —
202221 ROK MLEACL Padres — 5751 7211 5100 00 137214275489 137149 189 236 46 — — — — — —
202322 AA MLESan Antonio Missions — 8883 23803 5150 20 277318482800 205308 176 341 117 — — — — — —
202322 A+ MLEFort Wayne TinCaps — 187174 466015 9513 82 264312557869 293273 275 354 126 — — — — — —
202322 A MLELake Elsinore Storm — 276244 651153 26575 123 266349389738 123331 219 320 103 — — — — — —
202423 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 3232 4002 0150 00 125125312438 188133 470 184 11 -3 +0 -1 +2 +1 -0.2
202423 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 321285 551318 27817 34 193279330609 137237 258 275 72 — — — — — —
202423 AA MLEPensacola Blue Wahoos — 160144 29703 12411 40 201268312580 111248 268 261 63 — — — — — —
202524 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 184161 371014 21360 20 230319379698 149262 2011 315 99 -0 +0 +6 +1 +4 1.2
202524 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 155141 30806 10223 50 213279397676 184208 146 297 87 — — — — — —
202625 MLB MLEMiami Marlins — 154142 311014 8371 11 218265387652 169255 245 287 80 -4 -0 -1 +1 +3 -0.0
202625 AAA MLEJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp — 193172 33815 17611 61 192268337606 145250 329 266 66 — — — — — —
202221 A MLE2 teams — 129112 24513 14242 63 214312357670 143244 1911 293 84 — — — — — —
202221 A RAW2 teams — 129105 29714 21172 63 276406476882 200294 1316 391 84 — — — — — —
202322 A MLE4 teams — 641582 15428624 471448 265 265328457785 192312 227 335 113 — — — — — —
202322 A RAW4 teams — 641565 16836528 641118 265 297377527904 230326 1710 394 113 — — — — — —
202423 AAA MLE3 teams — 513461 8820113 391378 74 191266323589 132237 278 265 65 — — — — — —
202423 AAA RAW3 teams — 513442 9823116 581178 74 222323387710 165261 2311 318 65 — — — — — —
202524 MLB MLE2 teams — 339302 6818111 31583 70 225304401704 175243 179 307 94 -3 +1 +6 +1 +7 1.4
202524 MLB RAW2 teams — 339298 7219112 35543 70 242327433760 191256 1610 336 94 -3 +1 +6 +1 +7 1.4
202625 AAA MLE2 teams — 347314 641829 25982 72 204267360627 156261 287 275 72 — — — — — —
202625 AAA RAW2 teams — 347307 6919211 32882 72 225302407709 182274 259 311 72 — — — — — —
202221 A MLE2 teams — 129112 24513 14242 63 214312357670 143243 1911 293 84 — — — — — —
202322 A MLE4 teams — 641581 15428624 471448 265 265328458786 193308 227 335 113 — — — — — —
202423 AAA MLE3 teams — 513461 8820113 391378 74 191266323589 132234 278 265 65 — — — — — —
202524 MLB MLE2 teams — 339302 6818111 31583 70 225304401704 175237 179 307 94 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLE2 teams — 347317 641829 25982 72 202267356623 155252 287 275 72 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202423 AAA MLE3 teams — 513461 8820113 391378 74 191266323589 132234 278 265 65 — — — — — —
202524 MLB MLE2 teams — 339302 6818111 31583 70 225304401704 175237 179 307 94 — — — — — —
202625 AAA MLE2 teams — 347317 641829 25982 72 202267356623 155252 287 275 72 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202726 MLB MLEMIA 45% 380342 7317212 31904 62 214286380666 166253 248 296 86 -6 +0 +1 +1 +8 0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202726 MLB CTXMIA 45% 10796 20503 9251 21 206279361640 155243 238 286 86 -2 +0 +0 +0 +2 0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202827 MLB MLEMIA 56% 290261 551319 24693 41 213285377662 164252 248 294 85 -5 +0 +1 +1 +6 0.4
202928 MLB MLEMIA 62% 300270 571419 24723 41 211283372655 161251 248 292 84 -6 +0 +0 +1 +6 0.2
203029 MLB MLEMIA 63% 294265 551319 24723 31 209280366646 157249 248 288 81 -7 +0 -0 +1 +6 0.1
203130 MLB MLEMIA 63% 289262 531318 23712 11 205276358634 152247 258 283 78 -8 -0 -1 +1 +6 -0.2
202827 MLB CTXMIA 56% 162147 31715 13391 21 205278359636 154242 248 284 85 -3 +0 +1 +1 +4 0.2
202928 MLB CTXMIA 62% 185166 34815 15452 21 203275354630 151241 248 282 84 -4 +0 +0 +1 +4 0.1
203029 MLB CTXMIA 63% 184165 34815 15452 21 201273348621 147240 248 278 81 -4 +0 -0 +1 +4 0.0
203130 MLB CTXMIA 63% 183165 33715 15451 11 198269341610 143237 258 273 78 -5 -0 -1 +1 +4 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 1084978 20248630 872627 105 207276360636 153249 248 280 86 -26 +0 +4 +7 +23 0.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650586 12229418 521574 63 208277363641 155251 248 280 86 -15 +0 +2 +4 +14 0.5
Career— MLE — 33803044 66415316102 27080136 6919 218290379669 161260 248 295 86 -39 +1 +5 +9 +39 1.5
/ 162G— MLE — 650585 12829320 521547 134 219290381672 162260 248 295 86 -14 +1 +2 +3 +14 0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 193 PAwOBA .336 → .266 (−70)K% 26.4% → 31.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.42%÷1.000×1.200——31.71%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.44%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0188.73%
HBP% /PA0.52%—×0.940—×1.0180.50%
Singles /BIP18.42%÷1.000×0.930×0.954×1.01816.64%
Doubles /BIP8.77%÷1.000×0.830×0.954×1.0187.07%
Triples /BIP0.88%÷1.000×0.970×0.954×1.0180.83%
Home runs /BIP6.14%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0184.38%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.

Result: wOBA .336 → .266; ISO .200 → .151; BABIP .291 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 155 PAwOBA .365 → .297 (−68)K% 11.6% → 14.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.61%÷0.978×1.200——14.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.03%÷1.027×0.690—×1.0336.27%
HBP% /PA1.94%—×0.940—×1.0331.88%
Singles /BIP15.13%÷1.051×0.930×0.950×1.03313.13%
Doubles /BIP8.40%÷1.023×0.830×0.950×1.0336.69%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970×0.950×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP6.72%÷0.903×0.700—×1.0335.39%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .365 → .297; ISO .248 → .201; BABIP .250 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 321 PAwOBA .323 → .275 (−48)K% 20.9% → 25.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.87%÷0.999×1.200——25.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.84%÷1.005×0.690—×1.0488.52%
HBP% /PA2.18%—×0.940—×1.0482.15%
Singles /BIP17.07%÷1.016×0.930×0.981×1.04816.06%
Doubles /BIP7.32%÷0.970×0.830×0.981×1.0486.43%
Triples /BIP0.49%÷0.985×0.970×0.981×1.0480.49%
Home runs /BIP4.88%÷0.925×0.700—×1.0483.87%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 97, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .323 → .275; ISO .173 → .144; BABIP .259 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 160 PAwOBA .316 → .261 (−55)K% 21.9% → 25.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.88%÷1.039×1.220——25.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.25%÷1.016×0.680—×1.0127.62%
HBP% /PA0.62%—×0.840—×1.0120.53%
Singles /BIP20.39%÷0.989×0.920×0.950×1.01218.23%
Doubles /BIP7.77%÷1.034×0.910×0.950×1.0126.57%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.909×0.880×0.950×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP3.88%÷1.064×0.800—×1.0122.95%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 82, K 108, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .316 → .261; ISO .145 → .118; BABIP .284 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 276 PAwOBA .387 → .320 (−67)K% 14.5% → 20.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.49%÷0.953×1.360——20.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.49%÷1.032×0.690—×0.9909.60%
HBP% /PA1.81%—×0.780—×0.9901.40%
Singles /BIP25.26%÷0.951×0.920×1.004×0.99024.27%
Doubles /BIP7.37%÷1.065×0.830×1.004×0.9905.70%
Triples /BIP2.63%÷0.900×0.910×1.004×0.9902.64%
Home runs /BIP2.11%÷1.121×0.800—×0.9901.49%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 90, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .387 → .320; ISO .157 → .127; BABIP .360 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 187 PAwOBA .412 → .354 (−58)K% 21.9% → 27.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.93%÷1.014×1.270——27.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.42%÷0.983×0.710—×0.9984.62%
HBP% /PA1.60%—×0.790—×0.9981.26%
Singles /BIP20.93%÷0.956×0.920×0.990×0.99819.91%
Doubles /BIP6.20%÷1.118×0.810×0.990×0.9984.44%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.850×0.990×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP12.40%÷0.848×0.800—×0.99811.68%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 91, 2B 124, 3B 130, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .412 → .354; ISO .329 → .289; BABIP .307 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 88 PAwOBA .395 → .341 (−54)K% 13.6% → 16.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.64%÷0.987×1.220——16.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.95%÷0.927×0.700—×1.0276.17%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.870—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP18.84%÷0.986×0.920×1.007×1.02718.17%
Doubles /BIP14.49%÷1.116×0.840×1.007×1.02711.28%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.010×0.940×1.007×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP4.35%÷0.820×0.800—×1.0274.36%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 97, 2B 123, 3B 102, K 97, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .395 → .341; ISO .235 → .204; BABIP .348 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ALake Elsinore Storm · 72 PAwOBA .419 → .338 (−81)K% 13.9% → 19.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.89%÷0.968×1.360——19.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.67%÷0.992×0.690——11.60%
HBP% /PA2.78%—×0.780——2.17%
Singles /BIP27.08%÷1.020×0.920——24.44%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷1.115×0.830——6.21%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910——0.00%
Home runs /BIP4.17%÷0.938×0.800——3.55%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 123, 3B 100, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .419 → .338; ISO .172 → .140; BABIP .370 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .