Graham Pauley — OGILVIE

Graham Pauley3B Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 25 L/R 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB HR -10%H -3% Svc 1.029 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION335 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†vL 7985vR 87

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP248

ISO167

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

897.0%

xAVG

100.207

POWER40

Barrel%

346.1

Avg EV

1085.8

Bat Spd

5972.3

EYE50

Chase%

9019.1%

SPEED45

Sprint

3026.5

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%22%·22% over 45 PA (60d) · proj 22%

BB%8%▼7% over 45 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.194▲.300 over 40 AB (60d) · proj .167xISO .125 vs .120 prior — approach flat: likely noise/luck

HR/BB5.8%▲9.7% over 31 BBE (60d) · proj 4.7%barrel% 7.0% vs 5.5% prior — approach backs the move

BABIP.256·.321 over 28 BIP (60d) · proj .254xBABIP .220 vs .248 prior

SLASH.228/.299/.421▲proj .220/.297/.387

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 269 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

245

—

wRC+

115

◀◀L

wOBA

338

277

◀◀L

ISO

111

146

▶▶R

BABIP

250

257

—

8.3%

25.7%

◀◀L

BB%

20.8%

7.8%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.029 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.2M
2029	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	21	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	72	58	19	4	0	2	12	10	2	6	3	328	458	500	958	172	370	14	17	429	177	+7	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
2022	21	ROK	ACL Padres	—	57	47	10	3	1	2	9	7	0	0	0	213	339	447	786	234	205	12	16	343	118	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	22	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	88	81	26	10	0	3	7	12	0	2	0	321	375	556	931	235	348	14	8	406	161	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
2023	22	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	187	170	51	8	0	16	13	41	3	8	2	300	360	629	990	329	307	22	7	424	173	+16	+1	—	—	+4	2.2
2023	22	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	276	230	71	14	5	4	40	40	5	12	3	309	422	465	887	157	360	14	14	396	154	+18	+1	—	—	+6	2.6
2023	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	90	84	20	4	0	5	4	18	0	4	0	238	273	464	737	226	238	20	4	314	99	-0	+1	—	—	+2	0.3
2024	23	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	32	32	4	0	0	2	0	15	0	0	0	125	125	312	438	188	133	47	0	187	12	-3	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.1
2024	23	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	321	272	61	15	1	10	40	67	7	3	4	224	339	397	736	173	259	21	12	332	110	+4	-1	—	—	+7	1.0
2024	23	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	160	138	33	8	0	4	18	35	1	4	0	239	331	384	715	145	284	22	11	318	101	+0	+1	—	—	+3	0.5
2025	24	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	184	161	36	9	1	4	21	36	0	2	0	224	313	366	680	143	262	20	11	305	92	-2	+0	+6	+1	+4	1.0
2025	24	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	155	137	36	10	0	8	14	18	3	5	0	263	344	511	855	248	250	12	9	373	138	+7	+1	—	—	+3	1.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	216	193	40	9	1	6	21	51	0	2	0	207	285	358	643	150	248	24	10	287	80	-5	+0	+5	+3	+5	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	72	61	17	3	0	2	9	14	2	6	3	279	389	426	815	148	316	19	12	345	120	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	57	51	7	2	1	1	5	10	0	0	0	137	214	275	489	137	153	18	9	242	50	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2023	22	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	88	83	23	8	0	3	5	15	0	2	0	277	318	482	800	205	307	17	6	337	114	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2023	22	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	187	174	45	6	0	15	9	55	3	8	2	259	306	552	858	293	274	29	5	352	124	+5	+1	—	—	+4	1.0
2023	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	276	242	64	11	4	3	28	56	5	12	3	264	353	380	733	116	327	20	10	321	103	+1	+1	—	—	+6	0.8
2024	23	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	32	32	4	0	0	2	0	15	0	0	0	125	125	312	438	188	133	47	0	182	9	-3	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.2
2024	23	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	321	286	54	13	1	8	26	81	7	3	4	189	273	325	598	136	225	25	8	263	64	-14	-1	—	—	+7	-0.8
2024	23	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	160	144	29	7	0	3	12	41	1	4	0	201	268	312	580	111	246	26	8	257	60	-8	+1	—	—	+3	-0.3
2025	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	184	161	37	10	1	4	21	36	0	2	0	230	319	379	698	149	262	20	11	310	96	-1	+0	+6	+1	+4	1.1
2025	24	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	155	142	29	8	0	6	9	22	3	5	0	204	266	387	654	183	201	14	6	288	81	-3	+1	—	—	+3	0.1
2022	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	129	112	24	5	1	3	14	24	2	6	3	214	312	357	670	143	244	19	11	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	129	105	29	7	1	4	21	17	2	6	3	276	406	476	882	200	294	13	16	391	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	4 teams	—	641	581	152	28	5	24	48	146	8	26	5	262	327	451	777	189	309	23	7	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A RAW	4 teams	—	641	565	168	36	5	28	64	111	8	26	5	297	377	527	904	230	326	17	10	394	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	513	462	86	19	1	13	38	137	8	7	4	186	260	316	576	130	230	27	7	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	513	442	98	23	1	16	58	117	8	7	4	222	323	387	710	165	261	23	11	318	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	339	303	67	17	1	11	30	58	3	7	0	221	298	393	690	172	237	17	9	300	89	-4	+1	+6	+1	+7	1.2
2025	24	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	339	298	72	19	1	12	35	54	3	7	0	242	327	433	760	191	256	16	10	336	89	-4	+1	+6	+1	+7	1.2
2022	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	129	112	24	5	1	3	14	24	2	6	3	214	312	357	670	143	244	19	11	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A MLE	4 teams	—	641	580	152	28	5	24	48	146	8	26	5	262	327	452	778	190	306	23	7	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	513	462	86	19	1	13	38	137	8	7	4	186	260	316	576	130	226	27	7	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	339	303	67	17	1	11	30	58	3	7	0	221	298	393	690	172	234	17	9	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	4 teams	—	641	580	152	28	5	24	48	146	8	26	5	262	327	452	778	190	306	23	7	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	513	462	86	19	1	13	38	137	8	7	4	186	260	316	576	130	226	27	7	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	339	303	67	17	1	11	30	58	3	7	0	221	298	393	690	172	234	17	9	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	MIA	—	335	303	62	18	2	9	25	94	2	7	2	205	270	366	636	162	260	28	7	274	72	-11	+1	-1	+1	+7	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	MIA	—	142	131	28	9	1	4	8	33	1	1	1	214	264	389	654	176	253	23	6	285	72	-5	-0	-1	+1	+3	-0.2
YTD	25	AAA RAW	MIA	—	193	165	39	10	1	7	24	51	1	6	1	236	337	436	773	200	291	26	12	339	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	25	MLB RAW	MIA	—	142	131	28	9	1	4	8	33	1	1	1	214	264	389	654	176	253	23	6	285	79	-4	-0	-1	+1	+3	-0.1
ROS	25	AAA MLE	MIA	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		256	22	11	295	85	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
ROS	25	MLB CTX	MIA	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		248	22	11	279	85	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	25	MLB A+C	MIA	—	151	139	29	9	1	4	9	35	1	1	1	209	262	374	636	165	248	23	6	285	72	-5	-0	-1	+1	+3	-0.2
TOT	25	AAA MLE	MIA	—	344	311	63	18	2	9	26	96	2	7	2	203	268	360	629	158	257	28	8	275	72	-11	+1	-1	+1	+7	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIA	82%	382	344	73	18	2	12	32	95	3	6	2	212	285	381	666	169	254	25	8	294	85	-7	+0	+2	+1	+8	0.6
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIA	82%	396	357	75	19	2	12	33	98	3	7	2	210	282	375	658	165	253	25	8	294	85	-7	+1	+3	+1	+9	0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIA	82%	403	363	76	19	2	12	34	101	3	6	2	209	282	372	654	163	253	25	8	293	84	-8	+0	+2	+1	+9	0.5
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIA	82%	398	358	75	19	2	12	34	100	3	6	2	209	284	374	658	165	252	25	9	291	83	-8	+0	+1	+1	+9	0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIA	82%	394	354	73	18	2	12	34	100	3	5	2	206	281	370	651	164	250	25	9	288	81	-9	+0	+0	+1	+9	0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIA	82%	313	281	57	14	1	9	26	78	3	5	2	203	277	356	633	153	245	25	8	278	85	-6	+0	+2	+1	+7	0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIA	82%	325	292	58	14	1	9	27	81	3	5	2	199	273	346	619	147	245	25	8	279	85	-6	+0	+2	+1	+7	0.5
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIA	82%	330	296	60	15	1	9	28	82	3	5	2	203	278	351	630	149	244	25	8	278	84	-6	+0	+2	+1	+7	0.4
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIA	82%	326	292	58	14	1	9	28	82	3	5	1	199	276	346	621	147	243	25	9	276	83	-7	+1	+1	+1	+7	0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIA	82%	323	289	57	14	1	9	28	82	3	4	1	197	275	346	621	149	242	25	9	273	81	-7	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1842	1651	331	80	6	51	159	458	15	26	8	200	277	349	626	148	243	25	9	278	86	-37	+2	+12	+9	+40	2.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	116	28	2	18	56	162	5	9	3	199	275	346	621	148	241	25	9	278	86	-13	+1	+4	+3	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	3604	3242	702	162	18	111	298	861	36	76	22	217	290	380	670	164	258	24	8	295	86	-44	+2	+14	+10	+48	3.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	126	29	3	20	54	155	6	14	4	215	288	378	666	162	256	24	8	295	86	-13	+1	+4	+3	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	4.3	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
/162	664	18	10	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#2Jake Marisnicklast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,213 PA	3.3	2,213	63	81	227	280	381	+5	+54	8.3	8.1
/162	664	19	24	+1.4	+16.2	2.5	pk7: 8
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.2	2,123	62	31	213	284	375	+8	+12	3.1	3.0
/162	664	20	10	+2.4	+3.8	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Graham Pauley (OGILVIE)	25	40	40	45	50	211/283/374	163	256	5	3	25%	8%	85	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Matt Thaiss 2020 · MLB	25	44→50	48→50	46→45	49	222/290/366	144	270	16	5	24%	8%	85	+0.2	227/300/382	155	283	17	6	25%	9%	93	+0.8	225/309/368	143	285	17	5	26%	10%	90	+0.4
✕Diego Castillo 2023 · MLB	25	42→52	51→45	43→50	44	223/276/379	157	256	20	7	22%	6%	83	+0.1	234/306/338	104	288	9	10	20%	9%	84	+0.2	234/312/321	87	289	6	10	20%	10%	80	-0.1
✕Hunter Feduccia 2023 · AAA	26	41→47	49→50	47→40	46	212/276/360	148	270	18	3	28%	8%	79	-0.2	225/305/353	128	302	13	3	27%	10%	88	+0.4	229/318/340	111	310	9	3	27%	11%	88	+0.2
✕Isan Díaz 2021 · MLB	25	42→41	50→55	44→45	44	217/283/370	153	287	18	8	30%	8%	84	+0.1	210/287/367	157	281	20	7	31%	9%	85	+0.2	187/266/359	171	232	26	8	32%	9%	73	-0.3
✕Shed Long Jr. 2022 · MLB	26	44→49	49→50	49→50	45	223/284/374	151	290	17	9	29%	8%	84	+0.2	222/292/347	125	315	12	10	31%	8%	81	-0.1	183/266/244	61	307	0	9	36%	9%	45	-0.5
✕Nicky Delmonico 2018 · MLB	26	47	48→50	48→45	48	235/299/382	148	285	16	6	23%	8%	92	+0.7	227/297/367	140	285	14	6	24%	8%	88	+0.4	219/293/362	143	281	13	2	26%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Alan Espinoza 2016 · AAA	25	43	49→50	49→45	42	222/271/363	141	263	17	6	23%	5%	78	-0.3	231/276/371	140	271	16	6	21%	5%	80	-0.1	247/287/387	140	284	16	3	19%	4%	87	+0.2
✕Devin Mann 2023 · AAA	26	42→44	49→50	42→45	48	216/297/365	150	271	16	5	26%	9%	88	+0.5	214/293/350	136	289	14	5	29%	9%	83	+0.1	203/286/328	126	277	13	4	30%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Nick Fortes 2023 · MLB	26	45→44	48→45	46→45	48	231/298/369	138	259	17	9	19%	7%	89	+0.5	224/279/338	114	254	12	6	17%	5%	75	-0.5	234/282/335	101	263	9	1	14%	4%	73	-0.3
✕Peter Maris 2019 · AA	25	47→50	46→45	47→50	49	235/294/365	131	276	13	9	20%	8%	86	+0.3	217/275/346	129	282	13	8	26%	7%	74	-0.5	203/258/327	124	267	13	6	28%	6%	61	-0.6
✕Sean Coughlin 2010 · AA	25	44→37	48→50	45→30	51	224/297/364	140	262	16	2	21%	9%	88	+0.4	215/278/327	112	271	11	5	24%	7%	72	-0.7	183/243/265	82	236	8	2	26%	7%	43	-1.3
✕Johnny Monell 2011 · AAA	25	46→44	49→50	50→45	44	232/288/382	150	294	16	9	27%	7%	88	+0.4	220/282/358	138	290	14	5	28%	7%	80	-0.1	226/287/350	124	285	13	8	24%	7%	78	-0.1
✕Joe Rizzo 2023 · AA	25	46→48	49→50	42→40	43	234/283/379	145	287	18	4	25%	6%	86	+0.3	221/272/352	131	280	14	5	26%	6%	75	-0.5	197/247/312	115	250	12	1	26%	6%	53	-1.2
✕Scott Moore 2009 · MLB	25	43→51	48→55	46→50	42	218/282/366	148	286	16	7	29%	6%	82	+0.0	221/280/352	131	273	15	7	24%	6%	78	-0.3	237/304/377	140	291	15	5	23%	7%	91	+0.5
✕César Salazar 2023 · AAA	27	41	49→45	47→45	41	215/277/357	142	256	18	9	24%	5%	79	-0.2	207/299/322	115	248	12	7	21%	8%	80	-0.2	203/308/311	108	241	12	6	20%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Marco Rivera 2009 · AAA	25	42	46→40	50→40	42	216/265/344	128	271	14	11	26%	6%	70	-0.8	238/295/326	88	292	8	6	20%	7%	77	-0.3	250/306/314	64	306	5	2	19%	7%	76	-0.1
✕Christin Stewart 2019 · MLB	25	41→49	52→55	49→45	47	216/292/380	164	271	20	3	28%	9%	90	+0.6	224/294/384	160	287	18	3	27%	8%	91	+0.7	208/287/368	160	280	20	5	32%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Andrew Susac 2015 · MLB	25	43→38	49→50	46→30	47	219/294/363	144	283	17	3	28%	9%	86	+0.3	212/279/352	140	284	16	3	30%	8%	78	-0.3	186/254/321	135	251	16	0	31%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Hank Conger 2013 · MLB	25	45→55	47→50	46→45	47	228/283/358	130	262	15	4	20%	7%	80	-0.1	233/296/377	144	284	16	4	23%	7%	90	+0.6	230/303/385	155	283	18	0	24%	8%	92	+0.3
✕Jason Martin 2022 · MLB	26	42→49	51→60	46→50	47	219/281/377	158	262	19	11	25%	8%	84	+0.2	230/294/419	189	296	24	9	30%	8%	99	+1.3	224/289/418	194	288	25	8	31%	8%	94	+0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps