Graham Pauley — OGILVIE

Graham Pauley3B Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 25 L/R 6'1" / 200 lbs MLB HR -6%H -3% Svc 1.029 · Ctrl thru 2030 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION246 act + 164 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 10475vR 64

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .282 / .378

PA164

HR5

K%24

BB%9

BABIP250

ISO169

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

798.0%

xwOBA

110.262

POWER40

Barrel%

275.2

Avg EV

1085.7

Bat Spd

5972.3

EYE50

Chase%

9021.8%

SPEED45

Sprint

2726.4

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 269 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

245

—

wRC+

117

◀◀L

wOBA

338

277

◀◀L

ISO

111

146

▶▶R

BABIP

250

257

—

8.3%

25.7%

◀◀L

BB%

20.8%

7.8%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.029 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.0	$0.2M	-$0.2M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$11M	+$10M
2028	Arb-1	$3M	+1.5	$10M	+$8M
2029	Arb-2	$5M	+1.3	$8M	+$5M
2030	Arb-3	$6M	+1.1	$6M	+$2M
Totals		$15M		$36M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	2 teams	—	129	112	24	5	1	3	14	25	2	6	3	214	312	357	670	143	247	19	11	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A	2 teams	—	129	105	29	7	1	4	21	17	2	6	3	276	406	476	882	200	294	13	16	391	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	4 teams	—	641	581	158	25	5	29	48	150	8	26	5	272	336	482	818	210	319	23	7	352	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	A	4 teams	—	641	565	168	36	5	28	64	111	8	26	5	297	377	527	904	230	326	17	10	394	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA	3 teams	—	513	462	88	19	1	15	38	137	8	7	4	190	264	333	597	143	232	27	7	267	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AAA	3 teams	—	513	442	98	23	1	16	58	117	8	7	4	222	323	387	710	165	261	23	11	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	MLB	2 teams	—	339	303	68	17	1	13	30	59	3	7	0	224	301	416	716	191	236	17	9	310	95	-2	+1	+6	+1	+10	1.7
2025	24	MLB	2 teams	—	339	298	72	19	1	12	35	54	3	7	0	242	327	433	760	191	256	16	10	336	115	+6	+1	+6	+1	+10	2.4
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	25	AAA	MIA	—	246	222	43	15	1	5	19	71	1	7	2	194	260	338	598	144	255	29	8	266	62	-11	+1	-1	+1	+7	-0.3
YTD	25	AAA	MIA	—	246	215	47	17	1	6	26	63	1	7	2	219	306	391	696	172	275	26	11	307	93	-2	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.6
ROS	25	AAA	MIA	100%	164	148	31	8	1	5	14	40	1	3	1	209	282	378	661	169	253	24	9	295	84	-3	+0	+2	+1	+5	0.4
ROS	25	MLB	MIA	100%	164	148	31	8	1	5	14	40	1	3	1	209	282	378	661	169	249	24	9	284	76	-4	+0	+2	+1	+5	0.3
FULL	25	AAA	MIA	—	410	370	74	23	2	10	33	111	2	10	3	200	269	354	623	154	253	27	8	273	67	-15	+1	+1	+1	+12	-0.0
TOT	25	AAA	MIA	—	410	370	74	23	2	10	33	111	2	10	3	200	269	354	623	154	253	27	8	278	71	-14	+1	+1	+1	+12	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	MIA	82%	553	495	105	28	2	17	48	136	5	11	3	212	288	380	668	168	252	25	9	296	85	-10	+1	+6	+2	+16	1.5
2028	27	MLB	MIA	82%	542	485	102	27	2	17	47	134	5	10	3	210	287	379	666	169	251	25	9	296	85	-9	+1	+6	+2	+15	1.5
2029	28	MLB	MIA	82%	531	475	100	26	2	17	47	132	4	10	3	211	287	381	668	171	251	25	9	295	84	-10	+1	+5	+2	+15	1.3
2030	29	MLB	MIA	82%	520	465	97	26	2	16	46	130	4	9	3	209	285	376	662	168	250	25	9	293	83	-10	+1	+4	+2	+15	1.1
2031	30	MLB	MIA	82%	510	456	94	25	2	15	45	129	4	8	2	206	283	368	652	162	248	25	9	290	80	-11	+1	+3	+2	+14	0.9
2032	31	MLB	MIA	82%	500	448	90	24	1	15	44	128	4	7	2	201	278	359	638	158	245	26	9	286	77	-13	+1	+3	+2	+14	0.6
2027	26	MLB	MIA	82%	453	407	84	22	2	14	39	112	4	9	3	206	282	373	656	167	247	25	9	285	77	-12	+1	+5	+2	+13	0.8
2028	27	MLB	MIA	82%	444	398	83	22	2	14	39	110	4	9	3	209	286	379	665	171	247	25	9	285	77	-12	+1	+5	+2	+13	0.8
2029	28	MLB	MIA	82%	435	390	80	21	2	13	38	108	4	8	2	205	282	369	652	164	246	25	9	284	76	-12	+1	+4	+2	+12	0.7
2030	29	MLB	MIA	82%	426	382	78	21	1	13	38	107	3	7	2	204	281	366	648	162	245	25	9	283	74	-12	+1	+3	+2	+12	0.5
2031	30	MLB	MIA	82%	418	375	75	20	1	12	37	106	3	6	2	200	277	355	632	155	243	25	9	280	72	-13	+0	+3	+1	+12	0.4
2032	31	MLB	MIA	82%	410	368	73	19	1	12	36	105	3	5	2	198	275	353	628	155	241	26	9	276	69	-14	+0	+2	+1	+12	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2966	2661	544	142	11	89	262	739	22	49	15	204	281	366	648	162	246	25	9	283	75	-85	+4	+29	+13	+84	4.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	119	31	2	20	57	162	5	11	3	204	281	367	648	163	245	25	9	283	75	-19	+1	+6	+3	+18	1.0
Career	—			—	4942	4430	957	230	20	162	421	1200	48	104	29	216	291	387	678	171	257	24	9	299	87	-72	+9	+34	+18	+140	13.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	126	30	3	21	55	158	6	14	4	216	290	386	676	170	257	24	8	299	87	-9	+1	+4	+2	+18	1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	21	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	72	58	19	4	0	2	12	10	2	6	3	328	458	500	958	172	370	14	17	429	187	+7	+0	—	—	+2	0.9
2022	21	ROK	ACL Padres	—	57	47	10	3	1	2	9	7	0	0	0	213	339	447	786	234	205	12	16	343	120	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2023	22	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	88	81	26	10	0	3	7	12	0	2	0	321	375	556	931	235	348	14	8	406	169	+7	+0	—	—	+2	1.0
2023	22	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	187	170	51	8	0	16	13	41	3	8	2	300	360	629	990	329	307	22	7	424	183	+17	+1	—	—	+5	2.4
2023	22	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	276	230	71	14	5	4	40	40	5	12	3	309	422	465	887	157	360	14	14	396	161	+19	+1	—	—	+8	2.9
2023	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	90	84	20	4	0	5	4	18	0	4	0	238	273	464	737	226	238	20	4	314	99	-0	+1	—	—	+3	0.3
2024	23	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	32	32	4	0	0	2	0	15	0	0	0	125	125	312	438	188	133	47	0	187	1	-4	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.1
2024	23	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	321	272	61	15	1	10	40	67	7	3	4	224	339	397	736	173	259	21	12	332	112	+4	-1	—	—	+9	1.3
2024	23	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	160	138	33	8	0	4	18	35	1	4	0	239	331	384	715	145	284	22	11	318	102	+0	+1	—	—	+5	0.6
2025	24	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	184	161	36	9	1	4	21	36	0	2	0	224	313	366	680	143	262	20	11	305	91	-2	+0	+6	+1	+5	1.1
2025	24	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	155	137	36	10	0	8	14	18	3	5	0	263	344	511	855	248	250	12	9	373	143	+8	+1	—	—	+4	1.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	216	193	40	9	1	6	21	51	0	2	0	207	285	358	643	150	248	24	10	287	78	-5	+0	+5	+3	+6	1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#3Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	11	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
	/162	664	18	10	226	302	380	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	2,993	89	49	209	282	373	+11	+14	3.6	3.7
	/162	664	20	11	209	282	373	+2.4	+3.1	0.8	pk7: 4
#6Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Graham Pauley (OGILVIE)	25	40	40	45	50	200/269/354	154	253	10	10	27%	8%	71	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Fortes 2022 · MLB	25	44	46→45	47→45	46	220/285/349	129	256	15	7	20%	6%	77	+0.1	226/286/352	126	257	15	8	18%	6%	78	+0.2	233/280/331	98	262	9	1	14%	4%	68	-0.2
✕Carter Kieboom 2023 · MLB	25	44→50	45→50	43→45	52	220/315/340	120	274	14	5	24%	10%	89	+0.9	222/293/341	119	290	14	7	27%	8%	78	+0.2	231/290/331	100	300	10	7	25%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Shed Long Jr. 2021 · MLB	25	45→47	48→50	49→50	44	225/287/369	144	298	16	12	29%	8%	82	+0.5	221/285/353	132	308	13	10	31%	8%	78	+0.2	211/279/335	125	300	12	6	32%	8%	67	-0.1
✕Isan Díaz 2021 · MLB	25	42	49→55	44→45	42	217/280/369	152	292	17	8	31%	7%	80	+0.4	214/291/380	166	286	21	7	31%	9%	88	+0.9	193/273/381	188	236	29	8	32%	9%	77	+0.1
✕J.R. Towles 2009 · MLB	25	46→53	48→50	44→50	46	231/305/372	141	266	15	10	20%	6%	92	+1.2	216/298/346	130	255	13	8	20%	7%	82	+0.5	203/286/317	114	237	10	6	18%	7%	66	-0.2
✕Andrew Knizner 2020 · MLB	25	49	46→50	47→40	45	245/295/372	127	277	15	5	18%	5%	87	+0.8	221/293/330	109	267	11	5	21%	8%	76	+0.0	218/299/361	142	257	17	2	22%	7%	83	+0.2
✕Tim Hummel 2004 · MLB	25	47→45	48→45	48→30	53	236/303/381	145	259	16	7	16%	9%	92	+1.2	225/287/344	119	253	12	5	16%	7%	76	+0.1	217/276/322	104	246	9	2	15%	6%	61	-0.5
✕Chance Sisco 2020 · MLB	25	44→54	51→50	41→40	44	222/308/378	155	297	19	3	30%	8%	95	+1.4	207/300/356	149	279	17	4	30%	9%	86	+0.8	174/281/301	128	241	13	0	31%	10%	63	-0.3
✕Matt Thaiss 2020 · MLB	25	43→50	48→55	46→45	49	220/287/366	146	267	16	5	24%	8%	82	+0.5	229/299/394	165	283	20	6	25%	9%	95	+1.4	228/309/386	157	285	19	5	26%	9%	94	+0.9
✕Zack Collins 2020 · MLB	25	39→43	49→50	48→40	49	195/292/347	152	294	17	3	37%	12%	80	+0.4	199/293/346	147	289	15	5	34%	11%	80	+0.4	189/281/328	139	279	15	4	35%	11%	69	-0.3
✕Peter Maris 2019 · AA	25	47→48	47→50	47→50	49	234/294/375	140	272	15	9	20%	8%	87	+0.8	219/277/359	140	283	15	8	27%	7%	76	+0.0	205/263/345	139	269	15	6	29%	7%	63	-0.3
✕Tim Olson 2005 · MLB	26	45	47→50	50	59	224/316/369	145	252	14	9	17%	12%	95	+1.4	229/280/371	142	289	15	12	25%	6%	80	+0.4	225/270/363	138	287	15	12	27%	5%	72	-0.1
●Scott Moore 2009 · MLB	25	43→51	50→55	46→50	41	219/282/373	154	287	17	7	29%	6%	82	+0.5	221/278/358	137	272	16	7	24%	6%	76	+0.1	235/301/375	139	291	15	5	24%	7%	87	+0.6
✕Cody Asche 2015 · MLB	25	50→55	48→50	47→45	44	250/300/393	142	312	15	6	24%	6%	94	+1.3	231/288/373	142	292	15	5	25%	7%	84	+0.6	220/281/357	137	280	15	4	26%	7%	74	-0.1
✕Ryan Lavarnway 2013 · MLB	25	44→45	49→55	45→30	46	227/290/370	143	279	17	2	25%	7%	85	+0.7	236/298/339	103	290	10	3	21%	7%	79	+0.3	231/300/392	161	282	20	0	25%	7%	90	+0.4
✕Hunter Feduccia 2022 · AA	25	43→50	47→50	46→40	46	220/283/351	130	279	15	4	26%	8%	76	+0.1	220/292/364	144	293	16	3	29%	9%	84	+0.6	232/319/354	122	311	11	2	27%	11%	90	+0.7
✕Nicky Delmonico 2018 · MLB	26	47	50→55	48→45	47	237/300/395	158	288	17	6	24%	8%	95	+1.4	226/295/367	141	284	14	6	25%	8%	85	+0.7	217/292/360	143	280	13	2	26%	8%	81	+0.2
✕Josh VanMeter 2020 · MLB	25	45→47	50→55	50	47	231/292/393	161	278	17	15	24%	8%	91	+1.1	223/303/394	171	277	19	11	26%	10%	96	+1.5	205/310/363	157	260	18	7	27%	13%	89	+0.4
●Luke Waddell 2023 · AA	25	47→52	46→40	44→50	50	235/295/359	125	268	14	9	18%	8%	83	+0.6	236/308/334	98	276	9	15	17%	9%	82	+0.5	234/306/317	83	275	7	15	16%	8%	76	+0.0
✕Luis Torrens 2022 · MLB	26	46→47	54→55	45→30	46	238/296/415	177	289	22	3	26%	8%	98	+1.6	234/288/383	149	306	17	3	28%	7%	87	+0.8	227/280/355	128	284	13	2	24%	6%	75	+0.0