Donny Sands
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 27 | AAA/AADET | 390 | .230/.322/.360 | 6 | 1 | 55 | — | .201/.268/.300 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAASF | 56 | .176/.250/.196 | 0 | 0 | 6 | — | .170/.214/.189 |
| 2025 | 29 | INTLTucson Baseba… | 48 | .068/.146/.068 | 0 | 0 | -36 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 19 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 30 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 310 | 333 | 345 | 678 | 34 | 375 | 17 | 3 | 307 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | GCL Yankees1 | — | 190 | 162 | 50 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 309 | 407 | 364 | 772 | 56 | 338 | 8 | 13 | 356 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK | Pulaski Yankees | — | 122 | 112 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 286 | 333 | 375 | 708 | 89 | 303 | 11 | 6 | 315 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Tampa Yankees | — | 68 | 62 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 306 | 358 | 484 | 842 | 177 | 333 | 15 | 7 | 367 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 314 | 286 | 77 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 53 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 269 | 326 | 350 | 675 | 80 | 321 | 17 | 7 | 304 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Tampa Tarpons | — | 94 | 86 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 323 | 326 | 648 | 58 | 354 | 23 | 5 | 294 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Tampa Tarpons | — | 247 | 226 | 50 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 51 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 221 | 285 | 310 | 594 | 88 | 276 | 21 | 7 | 271 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 62 | 54 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 306 | 315 | 621 | 111 | 244 | 19 | 13 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 165 | 147 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 272 | 344 | 476 | 820 | 204 | 294 | 19 | 10 | 358 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA | Somerset Patriots | — | 215 | 194 | 49 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 25 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 253 | 319 | 459 | 778 | 206 | 242 | 12 | 7 | 341 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 242 | 201 | 62 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 38 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 308 | 418 | 428 | 846 | 119 | 368 | 18 | 16 | 380 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 371 | 320 | 72 | 24 | 1 | 5 | 45 | 74 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 225 | 322 | 353 | 676 | 128 | 272 | 20 | 12 | 305 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 19 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 316 | 316 | 474 | 789 | 158 | 500 | 42 | 0 | 348 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 56 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 250 | 196 | 446 | 20 | 257 | 29 | 9 | 215 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | INTL | Tucson Baseball Team | — | 48 | 44 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 146 | 68 | 214 | 120 | 40 | 6 | 115 | -36 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 30 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 276 | 300 | 310 | 610 | 34 | 347 | 23 | 3 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees1 | — | 190 | 171 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 257 | 328 | 298 | 626 | 41 | 287 | 12 | 8 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Yankees | — | 122 | 114 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 237 | 275 | 316 | 591 | 79 | 251 | 15 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ MLE | Tampa Yankees | — | 68 | 63 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 270 | 313 | 444 | 758 | 175 | 303 | 22 | 6 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 314 | 293 | 70 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 74 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 239 | 281 | 307 | 588 | 68 | 301 | 24 | 4 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 94 | 87 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 269 | 276 | 545 | 57 | 326 | 33 | 4 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 247 | 231 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 73 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 169 | 220 | 247 | 466 | 78 | 234 | 30 | 5 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA MLE | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | — | 165 | 151 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 252 | 307 | 391 | 697 | 139 | 293 | 24 | 7 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | Somerset Patriots | — | 215 | 199 | 45 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 226 | 277 | 397 | 674 | 171 | 219 | 14 | 5 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 242 | 215 | 59 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 54 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 274 | 347 | 367 | 715 | 93 | 337 | 22 | 10 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 371 | 334 | 66 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 89 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 198 | 268 | 293 | 561 | 96 | 248 | 24 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 19 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 263 | 421 | 684 | 158 | 461 | 53 | 0 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 56 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 214 | 189 | 403 | 19 | 238 | 32 | 5 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 220 | 200 | 52 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 29 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 260 | 324 | 300 | 624 | 40 | 302 | 13 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 220 | 191 | 59 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 309 | 397 | 361 | 759 | 52 | 343 | 9 | 11 | 349 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Yankees | — | 122 | 114 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 237 | 275 | 316 | 591 | 79 | 260 | 15 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK RAW | Pulaski Yankees | — | 122 | 112 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 286 | 333 | 375 | 708 | 89 | 303 | 11 | 6 | 315 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 382 | 357 | 85 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 238 | 279 | 314 | 592 | 76 | 305 | 23 | 4 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 382 | 348 | 96 | 22 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 63 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 276 | 332 | 374 | 705 | 98 | 323 | 16 | 7 | 315 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 94 | 87 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 269 | 276 | 545 | 57 | 333 | 33 | 4 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ RAW | Tampa Tarpons | — | 94 | 86 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 323 | 326 | 648 | 58 | 354 | 23 | 5 | 294 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 309 | 290 | 48 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 91 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 166 | 214 | 238 | 452 | 72 | 232 | 29 | 5 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 309 | 280 | 61 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 63 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 218 | 289 | 311 | 600 | 93 | 270 | 20 | 8 | 274 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 380 | 351 | 82 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 22 | 68 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 234 | 285 | 387 | 672 | 154 | 252 | 18 | 6 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 380 | 341 | 89 | 16 | 0 | 18 | 32 | 57 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 261 | 330 | 466 | 796 | 205 | 263 | 15 | 8 | 348 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 242 | 215 | 59 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 54 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 274 | 347 | 367 | 715 | 93 | 344 | 22 | 10 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA RAW | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 242 | 201 | 62 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 38 | 44 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 308 | 418 | 428 | 846 | 119 | 368 | 18 | 16 | 380 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 390 | 353 | 71 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 100 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 201 | 268 | 300 | 568 | 99 | 261 | 26 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 390 | 339 | 78 | 24 | 1 | 6 | 45 | 82 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 230 | 322 | 360 | 682 | 130 | 281 | 21 | 12 | 307 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 56 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 214 | 189 | 403 | 19 | 257 | 32 | 5 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA RAW | Sacramento River Cats | — | 56 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 250 | 196 | 446 | 20 | 257 | 29 | 9 | 215 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | INTL MLE | Tucson Baseball Team | — | 48 | 44 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 146 | 68 | 214 | 120 | 40 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 29 | INTL RAW | Tucson Baseball Team | — | 48 | 44 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 146 | 68 | 214 | 120 | 40 | 6 | 115 | -36 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 220 | 199 | 52 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 29 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 261 | 324 | 302 | 626 | 40 | 295 | 13 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 20 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Yankees | — | 122 | 115 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 235 | 275 | 313 | 588 | 78 | 251 | 15 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 382 | 359 | 85 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 237 | 279 | 312 | 590 | 75 | 301 | 23 | 4 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 22 | A+ MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 94 | 88 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 216 | 269 | 273 | 542 | 57 | 326 | 33 | 4 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 309 | 288 | 48 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 91 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 167 | 214 | 240 | 454 | 73 | 234 | 29 | 5 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 380 | 352 | 82 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 22 | 68 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 233 | 285 | 386 | 671 | 153 | 251 | 18 | 6 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 242 | 216 | 59 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 54 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 273 | 347 | 366 | 713 | 93 | 337 | 22 | 10 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 390 | 355 | 71 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 100 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 200 | 268 | 299 | 566 | 99 | 258 | 26 | 8 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 56 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 214 | 189 | 403 | 19 | 238 | 32 | 5 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 56 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 214 | 189 | 403 | 19 | 238 | 32 | 5 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2243 | 2064 | 455 | 89 | 2 | 29 | 141 | 517 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 220 | 276 | 308 | 583 | 87 | 277 | 23 | 6 | 255 | 59 | -110 | -3 | +0 | +40 | +49 | -2.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 132 | 26 | 1 | 8 | 41 | 150 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 221 | 276 | 308 | 584 | 87 | 278 | 23 | 6 | 255 | 59 | -32 | -1 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2024 AAASacramento River Cats · 56 PAwOBA .210 → .177 (−33)K% 28.6% → 31.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.081 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.93% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.86% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 21.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.052 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 2.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.091 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 110, 3B 118, K 116, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .210 → .177; ISO .020 → .015; BABIP .257 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 371 PAwOBA .301 → .251 (−50)K% 19.9% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.95% | ÷0.995 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.13% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 8.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.07% | ÷0.965 | ×0.930 | ×1.042 | ×1.003 | 17.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.76% | ÷1.156 | ×0.830 | ×1.042 | ×1.003 | 7.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.042 | ×1.003 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.03% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.58% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 93, 2B 131, 3B 130, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .301 → .251; ISO .128 → .100; BABIP .272 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAErie SeaWolves · 19 PAwOBA .337 → .233 (−105)K% 42.1% → 54.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 42.11% | ÷0.944 | ×1.220 | — | — | 54.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 45.45% | ÷1.002 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.978 | 43.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.924 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.145 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.055 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 6.57% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 129, K 89, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .337 → .233; ISO .158 → .090; BABIP .500 → .461. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 242 PAwOBA .374 → .315 (−58)K% 18.2% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷0.970 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.29% | ÷1.067 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 10.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.57% | ÷1.007 | ×0.930 | ×1.004 | ×1.018 | 28.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.73% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×1.018 | 4.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.18% | ÷1.039 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.18% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 94, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .374 → .315; ISO .119 → .092; BABIP .368 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AASomerset Patriots · 215 PAwOBA .334 → .281 (−53)K% 11.6% → 13.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.63% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.44% | ÷1.036 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.998 | 4.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.40% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.16% | ÷1.008 | ×0.940 | ×0.980 | ×0.998 | 15.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.92% | ÷0.905 | ×0.870 | ×0.980 | ×0.998 | 5.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.92% | ÷1.053 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 4.37% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 102, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 105, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .334 → .281; ISO .206 → .166; BABIP .242 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 165 PAwOBA .352 → .301 (−52)K% 19.4% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.39% | ÷0.993 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.70% | ÷0.973 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.61% | ÷0.974 | ×0.930 | ×1.048 | ×1.033 | 23.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.22% | ÷0.915 | ×0.830 | ×1.048 | ×1.033 | 5.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | ×1.048 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.96% | ÷1.149 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.38% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 95, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.
Result: wOBA .352 → .301; ISO .204 → .142; BABIP .294 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Tampa Tarpons · 247 PAwOBA .265 → .205 (−60)K% 20.6% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.65% | ÷0.989 | ×1.420 | — | — | 29.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.29% | ÷1.055 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 5.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.072 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 16.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.86% | ÷0.954 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 6.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.57% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.14% | ÷0.960 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 1.05% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 114, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 98, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .265 → .205; ISO .088 → .075; BABIP .276 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Tampa Tarpons · 94 PAwOBA .290 → .240 (−50)K% 23.4% → 33.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.40% | ÷1.004 | ×1.420 | — | — | 33.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.32% | ÷1.015 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 3.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.13% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 2.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.12% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×0.957 | ×1.012 | 24.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.81% | ÷0.891 | ×0.960 | ×0.957 | ×1.012 | 8.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.983 | ×0.810 | ×0.957 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.205 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 101, 2B 78, 3B 97, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .290 → .240; ISO .058 → .054; BABIP .354 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .