Dauri Fernandez
SS Hill City Howlers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROKDSL CLE Goryl | 192 | .287/.374/.407 | 1 | 8 | 41 | — | .186/.263/.244 |
| 2025 | 18 | A/ROK2 orgs | 200 | .326/.388/.528 | 6 | 18 | 78 | — | .245/.291/.364 |
| 2026 | 19 | A+/ACLE | 424 | .265/.338/.415 | 6 | 59 | 75 | — | .231/.288/.354 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 20 | MLBCLE | 534 | .229/.284/.343 | 6 | 25 | 76 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 21 | MLBCLE | 127 | .233/.290/.356 | 2 | 5 | 83 | 0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 22 | MLBCLE | 201 | .237/.296/.369 | 4 | 7 | 88 | 0.4 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL CLE Goryl | — | 192 | 167 | 48 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 287 | 374 | 407 | 781 | 120 | 315 | 10 | 9 | 350 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 24 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 273 | 273 | 318 | 591 | 45 | 286 | 12 | 0 | 242 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | ACL Guardians | — | 176 | 156 | 52 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 2 | 16 | 4 | 333 | 402 | 558 | 960 | 224 | 354 | 12 | 9 | 415 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ | Lake County Captains | — | 67 | 62 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 226 | 284 | 500 | 784 | 274 | 255 | 19 | 7 | 337 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A | Hill City Howlers | — | 357 | 316 | 86 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 35 | 74 | 2 | 51 | 15 | 272 | 348 | 399 | 747 | 127 | 340 | 21 | 10 | 333 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL CLE Goryl | — | 192 | 172 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 25 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 186 | 263 | 244 | 507 | 58 | 207 | 13 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 24 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 273 | 273 | 318 | 591 | 45 | 261 | 17 | 0 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 176 | 162 | 39 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 2 | 16 | 4 | 241 | 293 | 370 | 663 | 130 | 269 | 17 | 6 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 67 | 63 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 206 | 254 | 460 | 714 | 254 | 232 | 24 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | Hill City Howlers | — | 357 | 326 | 77 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 25 | 101 | 2 | 51 | 15 | 236 | 295 | 334 | 629 | 98 | 325 | 28 | 7 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL CLE Goryl | — | 192 | 172 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 25 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 186 | 263 | 244 | 507 | 58 | 215 | 13 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL CLE Goryl | — | 192 | 167 | 48 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 287 | 374 | 407 | 781 | 120 | 315 | 10 | 9 | 350 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 200 | 184 | 44 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 2 | 18 | 4 | 239 | 286 | 359 | 644 | 120 | 273 | 18 | 5 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 200 | 178 | 58 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 25 | 2 | 18 | 4 | 326 | 388 | 528 | 916 | 202 | 344 | 12 | 8 | 394 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 424 | 389 | 89 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 29 | 117 | 2 | 59 | 17 | 229 | 286 | 352 | 638 | 123 | 311 | 28 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 424 | 378 | 100 | 23 | 8 | 6 | 40 | 87 | 2 | 59 | 17 | 265 | 338 | 415 | 753 | 151 | 326 | 21 | 9 | 333 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL CLE Goryl | — | 192 | 172 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 25 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 186 | 263 | 244 | 507 | 58 | 207 | 13 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 200 | 186 | 44 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 2 | 18 | 4 | 237 | 286 | 355 | 641 | 118 | 268 | 18 | 5 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 424 | 390 | 89 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 29 | 117 | 2 | 59 | 17 | 228 | 286 | 351 | 637 | 123 | 310 | 28 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL CLE Goryl | — | 192 | 172 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 25 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 186 | 263 | 244 | 507 | 58 | 207 | 13 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 200 | 186 | 44 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 2 | 18 | 4 | 237 | 286 | 355 | 641 | 118 | 268 | 18 | 5 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 424 | 390 | 89 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 29 | 117 | 2 | 59 | 17 | 228 | 286 | 351 | 637 | 123 | 310 | 28 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB MLE | CLE | 0% | 534 | 491 | 112 | 23 | 7 | 6 | 35 | 120 | 3 | 25 | 7 | 229 | 284 | 343 | 626 | 114 | 287 | 22 | 7 | 280 | 76 | -16 | +2 | -2 | +6 | +12 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 21 | MLB MLE | CLE | 34% | 369 | 339 | 80 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 81 | 2 | 15 | 4 | 234 | 291 | 361 | 652 | 127 | 288 | 22 | 7 | 290 | 83 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB MLE | CLE | 48% | 414 | 379 | 90 | 18 | 5 | 8 | 29 | 89 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 238 | 296 | 373 | 669 | 135 | 289 | 21 | 7 | 298 | 88 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +9 | 0.7 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB MLE | CLE | 54% | 461 | 422 | 100 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 33 | 99 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 240 | 300 | 381 | 681 | 140 | 290 | 21 | 7 | 302 | 91 | -5 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 1.1 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB MLE | CLE | 55% | 512 | 466 | 114 | 23 | 6 | 11 | 37 | 109 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 242 | 303 | 386 | 688 | 143 | 291 | 21 | 7 | 306 | 93 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +11 | 1.4 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB MLE | CLE | 56% | 571 | 520 | 126 | 25 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 122 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 243 | 304 | 388 | 692 | 145 | 291 | 21 | 7 | 307 | 94 | -4 | +1 | +1 | +6 | +12 | 1.7 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB MLE | CLE | 56% | 596 | 543 | 132 | 26 | 7 | 13 | 44 | 127 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 243 | 304 | 388 | 692 | 145 | 291 | 21 | 7 | 307 | 94 | -4 | +1 | +1 | +6 | +13 | 1.8 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB MLE | CLE | 55% | 594 | 541 | 131 | 26 | 7 | 13 | 44 | 127 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 241 | 303 | 385 | 688 | 144 | 290 | 21 | 7 | 306 | 93 | -5 | +1 | +1 | +6 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB MLE | CLE | 55% | 583 | 531 | 126 | 25 | 6 | 12 | 43 | 126 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 240 | 301 | 380 | 682 | 141 | 289 | 22 | 7 | 303 | 91 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +13 | 1.4 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB MLE | CLE | 53% | 566 | 516 | 122 | 24 | 6 | 11 | 41 | 124 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 237 | 298 | 374 | 673 | 137 | 288 | 22 | 7 | 299 | 89 | -8 | +1 | -0 | +6 | +12 | 1.1 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB MLE | CLE | 53% | 552 | 504 | 119 | 24 | 6 | 11 | 40 | 123 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 234 | 295 | 367 | 661 | 132 | 286 | 22 | 7 | 295 | 86 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +12 | 0.8 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB MLE | CLE | 52% | 534 | 488 | 112 | 22 | 5 | 10 | 38 | 121 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 230 | 290 | 357 | 647 | 127 | 284 | 23 | 7 | 289 | 81 | -12 | -0 | -2 | +6 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB CTX | CLE | 34% | 127 | 116 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 233 | 290 | 356 | 647 | 123 | 287 | 22 | 7 | 288 | 83 | -3 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB CTX | CLE | 48% | 201 | 184 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 43 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 237 | 296 | 369 | 664 | 132 | 288 | 21 | 7 | 296 | 88 | -3 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB CTX | CLE | 54% | 250 | 228 | 55 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 53 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 240 | 299 | 377 | 676 | 137 | 289 | 21 | 7 | 301 | 91 | -3 | +1 | -0 | +3 | +5 | 0.6 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB CTX | CLE | 55% | 284 | 260 | 63 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 60 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 241 | 302 | 382 | 684 | 140 | 290 | 21 | 7 | 304 | 93 | -2 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.8 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB CTX | CLE | 56% | 320 | 292 | 70 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 68 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 242 | 304 | 384 | 688 | 142 | 290 | 21 | 7 | 306 | 94 | -2 | +1 | +1 | +3 | +7 | 1.0 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB CTX | CLE | 56% | 335 | 305 | 73 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 71 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 242 | 303 | 384 | 687 | 142 | 290 | 21 | 7 | 305 | 94 | -2 | +1 | +1 | +4 | +7 | 1.0 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB CTX | CLE | 55% | 329 | 300 | 72 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 71 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 241 | 302 | 381 | 684 | 141 | 289 | 22 | 7 | 304 | 93 | -3 | +1 | +1 | +4 | +7 | 0.9 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB CTX | CLE | 55% | 320 | 291 | 70 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 69 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 239 | 300 | 377 | 677 | 138 | 289 | 22 | 8 | 301 | 91 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.8 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB CTX | CLE | 53% | 302 | 275 | 65 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 66 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 237 | 298 | 371 | 668 | 134 | 287 | 22 | 7 | 298 | 89 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB CTX | CLE | 53% | 290 | 265 | 63 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 65 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 234 | 294 | 363 | 657 | 130 | 286 | 22 | 7 | 293 | 86 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB CTX | CLE | 52% | 278 | 254 | 58 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 63 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 229 | 289 | 353 | 643 | 124 | 283 | 23 | 7 | 287 | 81 | -6 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 3036 | 2770 | 660 | 135 | 29 | 62 | 220 | 657 | 20 | 69 | 21 | 238 | 299 | 375 | 674 | 137 | 289 | 22 | 7 | 299 | 87 | -37 | +5 | -2 | +33 | +66 | 6.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 141 | 29 | 6 | 13 | 47 | 141 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 238 | 298 | 373 | 670 | 135 | 290 | 22 | 7 | 299 | 87 | -8 | +1 | -0 | +7 | +14 | 1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6778 | 6187 | 1461 | 290 | 79 | 127 | 481 | 1472 | 49 | 232 | 65 | 236 | 296 | 370 | 667 | 134 | 288 | 22 | 7 | 296 | 87 | -78 | +12 | -5 | +64 | +129 | 12.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 141 | 28 | 8 | 12 | 46 | 141 | 5 | 22 | 6 | 238 | 298 | 373 | 671 | 135 | 291 | 22 | 7 | 296 | 87 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AHill City Howlers · 357 PAwOBA .327 → .280 (−47)K% 20.7% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.73% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 7.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.016 | ×1.045 | 24.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.016 | ×1.045 | 5.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.016 | ×1.045 | 2.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.38% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .327 → .280; ISO .127 → .107; BABIP .340 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Lake County Captains · 67 PAwOBA .328 → .274 (−54)K% 19.4% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.40% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 24.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.050 | 5.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 6.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×1.050 | 6.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.030 | ×1.050 | 12.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.030 | ×1.050 | 3.75% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 3.43% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .328 → .274; ISO .274 → .229; BABIP .255 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Guardians · 176 PAwOBA .408 → .290 (−118)K% 12.5% → 17.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.041 | ×1.440 | — | — | 17.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.018 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 5.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.14% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.63% | ÷0.985 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 19.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.72% | ÷0.982 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 4.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.99% | ÷1.075 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 1.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.48% | ÷1.388 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 2.57% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 178, 1B 97, 2B 96, 3B 115, K 108, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .408 → .290; ISO .224 → .141; BABIP .354 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ALynchburg Hillcats · 24 PAwOBA .257 → .245 (−12)K% 12.5% → 17.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷0.989 | ×1.360 | — | — | 17.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.32% | ÷1.071 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 23.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.921 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 4.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.184 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 114, 2B 84, 3B 104, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .257 → .245; ISO .045 → .045; BABIP .286 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL CLE Goryl · 192 PAwOBA .345 → .229 (−116)K% 9.9% → 13.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.90% | ÷0.930 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.85% | ÷1.016 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 6.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.12% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.97% | ÷0.994 | ×0.680 | ×0.977 | ×1.022 | 15.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.08% | ÷0.995 | ×0.600 | ×0.977 | ×1.022 | 3.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.038 | ×0.600 | ×0.977 | ×1.022 | 1.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.366 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.24% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 173, 1B 99, 2B 99, 3B 108, K 86, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .345 → .229; ISO .120 → .068; BABIP .315 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).