Frainyer Chavez
3B Frisco RoughRiders| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAA/AATEX | 434 | .250/.329/.336 | 4 | 20 | 56 | — | .223/.277/.293 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA/AATEX | 439 | .255/.354/.353 | 8 | 7 | 66 | — | .222/.292/.296 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA/AATEX | 558 | .270/.380/.403 | 12 | 28 | 82 | — | .236/.316/.344 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 28 | MLBTEX | 3 | .219/.292/.314 | 0 | 0 | 72 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 29 | MLBTEX | 48 | .218/.291/.312 | 1 | 1 | 71 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | AZL Rangers | — | 196 | 173 | 53 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 37 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 306 | 381 | 405 | 786 | 98 | 375 | 19 | 10 | 353 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A | Hickory Crawdads | — | 415 | 365 | 93 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 41 | 76 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 255 | 333 | 315 | 648 | 60 | 317 | 18 | 10 | 295 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 372 | 315 | 77 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 46 | 79 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 244 | 351 | 302 | 653 | 57 | 319 | 21 | 12 | 304 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 22 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 227 | 227 | 364 | 591 | 136 | 294 | 23 | 0 | 255 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 61 | 55 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 291 | 350 | 345 | 695 | 55 | 364 | 20 | 8 | 313 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 268 | 231 | 65 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 50 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 281 | 374 | 364 | 737 | 82 | 346 | 19 | 11 | 335 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 118 | 105 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 229 | 302 | 352 | 654 | 124 | 266 | 20 | 8 | 292 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 170 | 139 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 201 | 331 | 266 | 598 | 65 | 271 | 26 | 15 | 281 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 137 | 125 | 32 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 256 | 311 | 312 | 623 | 56 | 344 | 24 | 7 | 282 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 297 | 259 | 64 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 61 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 247 | 337 | 347 | 684 | 100 | 308 | 21 | 11 | 311 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 44 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 257 | 409 | 543 | 952 | 286 | 240 | 16 | 18 | 417 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 395 | 342 | 87 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 46 | 86 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 254 | 348 | 333 | 681 | 79 | 323 | 22 | 12 | 313 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 52 | 45 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 289 | 360 | 333 | 693 | 44 | 351 | 19 | 10 | 308 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 506 | 421 | 113 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 70 | 93 | 7 | 25 | 7 | 268 | 382 | 411 | 792 | 143 | 315 | 18 | 14 | 355 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 196 | 180 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 53 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 217 | 273 | 272 | 545 | 56 | 292 | 27 | 6 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 415 | 377 | 78 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 102 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 207 | 267 | 255 | 522 | 48 | 270 | 25 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 372 | 327 | 66 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 108 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 202 | 289 | 248 | 537 | 46 | 285 | 29 | 9 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 22 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 227 | 227 | 364 | 591 | 136 | 296 | 27 | 0 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 61 | 56 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 268 | 317 | 321 | 638 | 54 | 335 | 25 | 7 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 268 | 243 | 53 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 65 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 218 | 283 | 288 | 571 | 70 | 279 | 24 | 7 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 118 | 108 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 194 | 250 | 287 | 537 | 93 | 234 | 25 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 170 | 150 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 59 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 147 | 229 | 200 | 429 | 53 | 216 | 35 | 9 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 137 | 128 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 37 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 242 | 281 | 289 | 571 | 47 | 333 | 27 | 4 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 297 | 271 | 58 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 74 | 1 | 15 | 2 | 214 | 276 | 295 | 571 | 81 | 272 | 25 | 7 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 44 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 216 | 341 | 405 | 746 | 189 | 213 | 18 | 14 | 343 | 118 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 395 | 359 | 80 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 108 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 223 | 286 | 284 | 571 | 61 | 298 | 27 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 52 | 47 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 277 | 320 | 319 | 639 | 43 | 323 | 23 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 506 | 444 | 103 | 21 | 0 | 10 | 47 | 113 | 7 | 25 | 7 | 232 | 315 | 347 | 662 | 115 | 276 | 22 | 9 | 291 | 83 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 196 | 180 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 53 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 217 | 273 | 272 | 545 | 56 | 297 | 27 | 6 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Rangers | — | 196 | 173 | 53 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 37 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 306 | 381 | 405 | 786 | 98 | 375 | 19 | 10 | 353 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 415 | 377 | 78 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 102 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 207 | 267 | 255 | 522 | 48 | 279 | 25 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A RAW | Hickory Crawdads | — | 415 | 365 | 93 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 41 | 76 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 255 | 333 | 315 | 648 | 60 | 317 | 18 | 10 | 295 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 372 | 327 | 66 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 108 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 202 | 289 | 248 | 537 | 46 | 294 | 29 | 9 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ RAW | Hickory Crawdads | — | 372 | 315 | 77 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 46 | 79 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 244 | 351 | 302 | 653 | 57 | 319 | 21 | 12 | 304 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 351 | 322 | 73 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 86 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 227 | 282 | 298 | 581 | 71 | 298 | 25 | 6 | 255 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 351 | 308 | 86 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 35 | 67 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 279 | 360 | 360 | 721 | 81 | 346 | 19 | 10 | 326 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 288 | 257 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 88 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 167 | 241 | 237 | 478 | 70 | 231 | 31 | 8 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 288 | 244 | 52 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 68 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 213 | 319 | 303 | 622 | 90 | 269 | 24 | 12 | 285 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 434 | 399 | 89 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 111 | 2 | 20 | 4 | 223 | 277 | 293 | 571 | 70 | 300 | 26 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 434 | 384 | 96 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 43 | 94 | 2 | 20 | 4 | 250 | 329 | 336 | 665 | 86 | 319 | 22 | 10 | 302 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 439 | 396 | 88 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 116 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 222 | 292 | 303 | 595 | 81 | 293 | 26 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 439 | 377 | 96 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 54 | 93 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 255 | 354 | 353 | 707 | 98 | 315 | 21 | 12 | 323 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 558 | 491 | 115 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 50 | 125 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 234 | 314 | 340 | 654 | 106 | 289 | 22 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 558 | 466 | 126 | 26 | 0 | 12 | 75 | 103 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 270 | 380 | 403 | 783 | 133 | 318 | 18 | 13 | 350 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Rangers | — | 196 | 180 | 39 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 53 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 217 | 273 | 272 | 545 | 56 | 292 | 27 | 6 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 20 | A MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 415 | 381 | 78 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 102 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 205 | 267 | 252 | 519 | 47 | 270 | 25 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 372 | 329 | 66 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 108 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 201 | 289 | 246 | 535 | 46 | 285 | 29 | 9 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 351 | 323 | 73 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 86 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 226 | 282 | 297 | 580 | 71 | 290 | 25 | 6 | 255 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 288 | 261 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 88 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 165 | 241 | 234 | 475 | 69 | 223 | 31 | 8 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 434 | 401 | 89 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 111 | 2 | 20 | 4 | 222 | 277 | 292 | 569 | 70 | 291 | 26 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 439 | 397 | 88 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 116 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 222 | 292 | 302 | 594 | 81 | 289 | 26 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 558 | 496 | 115 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 50 | 125 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 232 | 314 | 337 | 651 | 105 | 280 | 22 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 434 | 401 | 89 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 111 | 2 | 20 | 4 | 222 | 277 | 292 | 569 | 70 | 291 | 26 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 439 | 397 | 88 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 116 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 222 | 292 | 302 | 594 | 81 | 289 | 26 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 558 | 496 | 115 | 22 | 0 | 10 | 50 | 125 | 7 | 28 | 7 | 232 | 314 | 337 | 651 | 105 | 280 | 22 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | TEX | 2% | 380 | 341 | 75 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 32 | 90 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 219 | 292 | 311 | 602 | 92 | 278 | 24 | 8 | 275 | 72 | -13 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +8 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | TEX | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 292 | 314 | 606 | 94 | 277 | 33 | 0 | 276 | 72 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | TEX | 23% | 212 | 190 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 51 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 218 | 290 | 309 | 599 | 92 | 277 | 24 | 8 | 274 | 71 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | TEX | 23% | 48 | 44 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 218 | 291 | 312 | 603 | 94 | 276 | 25 | 8 | 275 | 71 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 48 | 44 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 292 | 341 | 633 | 114 | 290 | 25 | 8 | 275 | 59 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 136 | 27 | 0 | 14 | 54 | 162 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 228 | 292 | 344 | 636 | 116 | 290 | 25 | 8 | 275 | 59 | -22 | +3 | -4 | +2 | +14 | -0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3420 | 3079 | 662 | 101 | 10 | 34 | 263 | 877 | 32 | 132 | 55 | 215 | 284 | 287 | 571 | 72 | 286 | 26 | 8 | 256 | 59 | -12 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +8 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 125 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 50 | 167 | 6 | 25 | 10 | 214 | 282 | 284 | 566 | 70 | 285 | 26 | 8 | 256 | 59 | -22 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +14 | -0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 506 PAwOBA .348 → .291 (−57)K% 18.4% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.38% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 9.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.38% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×0.978 | 21.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.005 | ×0.978 | 6.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.005 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.86% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .348 → .291; ISO .143 → .118; BABIP .315 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAARound Rock Express · 52 PAwOBA .312 → .280 (−33)K% 19.2% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.23% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 29.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 4.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .312 → .280; ISO .044 → .039; BABIP .351 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 395 PAwOBA .306 → .257 (−50)K% 21.8% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.77% | ÷0.971 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.39% | ÷1.080 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.34% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×0.988 | 25.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.69% | ÷0.968 | ×0.840 | ×1.006 | ×0.988 | 4.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.940 | ×1.006 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.95% | ÷0.976 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.58% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 95, 2B 94, 3B 84, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .306 → .257; ISO .079 → .066; BABIP .323 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAARound Rock Express · 44 PAwOBA .407 → .343 (−64)K% 15.9% → 17.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.91% | ÷1.086 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.18% | ÷0.962 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 13.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.27% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.86% | ÷1.053 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 16.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.881 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 3.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.71% | ÷0.913 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 8.36% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 111, 2B 76, 3B 84, K 117, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .407 → .343; ISO .286 → .240; BABIP .240 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 297 PAwOBA .303 → .249 (−53)K% 20.5% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.54% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.34% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.75% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | ×0.998 | 22.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.04% | ÷1.012 | ×0.840 | ×1.000 | ×0.998 | 3.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.138 | ×0.940 | ×1.000 | ×0.998 | 1.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.02% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.49% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 128, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .303 → .249; ISO .100 → .080; BABIP .308 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAARound Rock Express · 137 PAwOBA .277 → .256 (−21)K% 24.1% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.09% | ÷1.069 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.57% | ÷1.040 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.73% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.17% | ÷0.989 | ×0.930 | ×1.020 | ×1.033 | 26.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.61% | ÷0.987 | ×0.830 | ×1.020 | ×1.033 | 6.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.020 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.928 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 114, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .277 → .256; ISO .056 → .050; BABIP .344 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 170 PAwOBA .279 → .203 (−76)K% 25.9% → 34.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.88% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 34.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 9.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.59% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.21% | ÷1.040 | ×0.870 | ×0.971 | ×0.988 | 19.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.16% | ÷0.960 | ×0.780 | ×0.971 | ×0.988 | 2.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.971 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.11% | ÷0.948 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 1.93% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 108, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .279 → .203; ISO .065 → .056; BABIP .271 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 118 PAwOBA .287 → .242 (−45)K% 20.3% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.34% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.47% | ÷0.989 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.85% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.99% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×0.968 | ×1.012 | 18.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.94% | ÷0.875 | ×0.840 | ×0.968 | ×1.012 | 4.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.074 | ×0.940 | ×0.968 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.974 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.08% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 115, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .287 → .242; ISO .124 → .107; BABIP .266 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).