Maximo Acosta
3B Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 514 | .295/.366/.440 | 9 | 34 | 101 | — | .260/.315/.371 |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 582 | .243/.329/.393 | 18 | 41 | 72 | — | .188/.256/.299 |
| 2025 | 22 | MLBMIA | 61 | .204/.295/.389 | 3 | 1 | 101 | 0.1 | |
| 2026 | 23 | AAAMIA | 180 | .143/.225/.236 | 3 | 14 | 3 | — | .121/.185/.188 |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 24 | MLBMIA | 64 | .199/.263/.324 | 2 | 4 | 70 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ51% MLB | 25 | MLBMIA | 123 | .201/.267/.329 | 3 | 7 | 73 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ54% MLB | 26 | MLBMIA | 159 | .203/.269/.332 | 4 | 9 | 75 | 0.0 |
Tools · Splits · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 68 | 61 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 246 | 292 | 393 | 686 | 148 | 292 | 22 | 4 | 291 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 456 | 404 | 106 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 40 | 87 | 9 | 44 | 17 | 262 | 342 | 361 | 704 | 99 | 325 | 19 | 9 | 320 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | — | 473 | 431 | 112 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 33 | 100 | 2 | 26 | 8 | 260 | 315 | 390 | 705 | 130 | 311 | 21 | 7 | 312 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 434 | 386 | 111 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 58 | 8 | 26 | 9 | 288 | 357 | 425 | 782 | 137 | 316 | 13 | 8 | 346 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 80 | 71 | 24 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 338 | 412 | 521 | 934 | 183 | 418 | 19 | 10 | 412 | 165 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MLB | Miami Marlins | — | 61 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 204 | 295 | 389 | 684 | 185 | 235 | 28 | 10 | 308 | 101 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +2 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 465 | 410 | 92 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 50 | 123 | 4 | 33 | 9 | 224 | 315 | 366 | 681 | 141 | 287 | 26 | 11 | 308 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 117 | 104 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 317 | 388 | 500 | 888 | 183 | 364 | 20 | 9 | 390 | 150 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 180 | 161 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 54 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 143 | 225 | 236 | 461 | 93 | 189 | 30 | 9 | 214 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 61 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 204 | 295 | 389 | 684 | 185 | 235 | 28 | 10 | 308 | 95 | -0 | -1 | -2 | +2 | +1 | 0.0 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 68 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 177 | 215 | 274 | 490 | 97 | 241 | 32 | 3 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 456 | 416 | 93 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 117 | 9 | 44 | 17 | 224 | 287 | 300 | 587 | 77 | 299 | 26 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 473 | 444 | 93 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 20 | 134 | 2 | 26 | 8 | 209 | 247 | 320 | 567 | 110 | 266 | 28 | 4 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 434 | 396 | 103 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 70 | 8 | 26 | 9 | 260 | 315 | 371 | 687 | 111 | 290 | 16 | 6 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MLB MLE | Miami Marlins | — | 61 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 204 | 295 | 389 | 684 | 185 | 235 | 28 | 10 | 317 | 101 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +2 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 465 | 425 | 80 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 151 | 4 | 33 | 9 | 188 | 256 | 299 | 555 | 111 | 261 | 32 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 180 | 165 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 65 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 121 | 185 | 188 | 373 | 67 | 178 | 36 | 7 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 68 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 177 | 215 | 274 | 490 | 97 | 238 | 32 | 3 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Rangers | — | 68 | 61 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 246 | 292 | 393 | 686 | 148 | 292 | 22 | 4 | 291 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 456 | 416 | 93 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 117 | 9 | 44 | 17 | 224 | 287 | 300 | 587 | 77 | 303 | 26 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 456 | 404 | 106 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 40 | 87 | 9 | 44 | 17 | 262 | 342 | 361 | 704 | 99 | 325 | 19 | 9 | 320 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 473 | 444 | 93 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 20 | 134 | 2 | 26 | 8 | 209 | 247 | 320 | 567 | 110 | 272 | 28 | 4 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ RAW | Hickory Crawdads | — | 473 | 431 | 112 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 33 | 100 | 2 | 26 | 8 | 260 | 315 | 390 | 705 | 130 | 311 | 21 | 7 | 312 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 514 | 471 | 121 | 24 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 83 | 9 | 34 | 11 | 257 | 311 | 365 | 676 | 108 | 295 | 16 | 5 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 514 | 457 | 135 | 31 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 73 | 9 | 34 | 11 | 295 | 366 | 440 | 806 | 144 | 331 | 14 | 8 | 357 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 643 | 584 | 110 | 14 | 3 | 16 | 51 | 205 | 6 | 42 | 12 | 188 | 261 | 305 | 565 | 116 | 258 | 32 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 643 | 568 | 136 | 18 | 3 | 21 | 67 | 163 | 6 | 42 | 12 | 239 | 326 | 393 | 719 | 153 | 298 | 25 | 10 | 323 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 180 | 165 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 65 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 121 | 185 | 188 | 373 | 67 | 180 | 36 | 7 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA RAW | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 180 | 161 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 54 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 143 | 225 | 236 | 461 | 93 | 189 | 30 | 9 | 214 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 68 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 169 | 215 | 262 | 477 | 92 | 241 | 32 | 3 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 456 | 416 | 93 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 117 | 9 | 44 | 17 | 224 | 287 | 300 | 587 | 77 | 299 | 26 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Hickory Crawdads | — | 473 | 448 | 93 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 20 | 134 | 2 | 26 | 8 | 208 | 247 | 317 | 564 | 109 | 266 | 28 | 4 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 514 | 472 | 121 | 24 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 83 | 9 | 34 | 11 | 256 | 311 | 364 | 675 | 108 | 290 | 16 | 5 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 643 | 581 | 110 | 14 | 3 | 16 | 51 | 205 | 6 | 42 | 12 | 189 | 261 | 306 | 567 | 117 | 258 | 32 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 180 | 165 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 65 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 121 | 185 | 188 | 373 | 67 | 178 | 36 | 7 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 514 | 472 | 121 | 24 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 83 | 9 | 34 | 11 | 256 | 311 | 364 | 675 | 108 | 290 | 16 | 5 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 643 | 581 | 110 | 14 | 3 | 16 | 51 | 205 | 6 | 42 | 12 | 189 | 261 | 306 | 567 | 117 | 258 | 32 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | — | 180 | 165 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 65 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 121 | 185 | 188 | 373 | 67 | 178 | 36 | 7 | 173 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIA | 45% | 230 | 210 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 68 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 206 | 269 | 338 | 607 | 132 | 268 | 30 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -8 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +5 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIA | 45% | 64 | 59 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 199 | 263 | 324 | 587 | 125 | 260 | 30 | 6 | 264 | 70 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIA | 51% | 240 | 219 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 70 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 208 | 273 | 344 | 617 | 136 | 270 | 29 | 7 | 276 | 73 | -8 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIA | 54% | 294 | 268 | 55 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 85 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 210 | 275 | 347 | 622 | 137 | 271 | 29 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -9 | +2 | -0 | +1 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIA | 54% | 306 | 278 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 88 | 3 | 16 | 3 | 211 | 277 | 347 | 624 | 137 | 271 | 29 | 7 | 280 | 75 | -9 | +2 | -0 | +1 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIA | 54% | 311 | 282 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 89 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 211 | 277 | 346 | 623 | 135 | 272 | 29 | 7 | 279 | 75 | -9 | +2 | -1 | +1 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIA | 53% | 303 | 275 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 86 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 210 | 276 | 343 | 620 | 133 | 272 | 28 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -9 | +1 | -2 | +1 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIA | 52% | 297 | 270 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 86 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 208 | 273 | 336 | 609 | 128 | 270 | 29 | 7 | 274 | 71 | -10 | +1 | -3 | +1 | +6 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIA | 51% | 123 | 112 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 36 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 201 | 267 | 329 | 596 | 127 | 261 | 29 | 7 | 268 | 73 | -4 | +1 | -0 | +0 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIA | 54% | 159 | 145 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 46 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 203 | 269 | 332 | 601 | 129 | 262 | 29 | 7 | 270 | 75 | -5 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIA | 54% | 166 | 151 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 48 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 204 | 270 | 332 | 603 | 128 | 263 | 29 | 7 | 271 | 75 | -5 | +1 | -0 | +1 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIA | 54% | 169 | 153 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 48 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 204 | 271 | 331 | 602 | 127 | 263 | 28 | 7 | 271 | 75 | -5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIA | 53% | 161 | 147 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 46 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 204 | 270 | 328 | 599 | 125 | 263 | 29 | 7 | 270 | 74 | -5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIA | 52% | 156 | 143 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 45 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 201 | 267 | 322 | 588 | 121 | 261 | 29 | 7 | 265 | 71 | -5 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +3 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 995 | 905 | 185 | 30 | 5 | 26 | 73 | 286 | 10 | 47 | 11 | 204 | 271 | 335 | 606 | 130 | 265 | 29 | 7 | 272 | 66 | -29 | +5 | -6 | +6 | +22 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 121 | 20 | 3 | 17 | 48 | 187 | 7 | 31 | 7 | 205 | 273 | 335 | 608 | 130 | 266 | 29 | 7 | 272 | 66 | -19 | +3 | -4 | +4 | +14 | -0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4228 | 3865 | 810 | 143 | 16 | 92 | 278 | 1172 | 46 | 259 | 72 | 210 | 271 | 326 | 597 | 117 | 273 | 28 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -60 | +10 | -9 | +9 | +42 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 124 | 22 | 2 | 14 | 43 | 180 | 7 | 40 | 11 | 209 | 270 | 323 | 593 | 114 | 272 | 28 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -20 | +3 | -3 | +3 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 180 PAwOBA .211 → .173 (−38)K% 30.0% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 36.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.009 | ×1.048 | 12.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×1.048 | 4.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.009 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 2.06% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .211 → .173; ISO .093 → .071; BABIP .189 → .178. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 465 PAwOBA .301 → .246 (−55)K% 26.5% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.45% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.75% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 7.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.85% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.95% | ÷1.051 | ×0.930 | ×1.001 | ×1.050 | 20.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.53% | ÷1.023 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | ×1.050 | 3.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.001 | ×1.050 | 0.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.53% | ÷0.903 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 3.69% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .301 → .246; ISO .141 → .113; BABIP .287 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 434 PAwOBA .342 → .300 (−42)K% 13.4% → 16.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.36% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.83% | ÷1.034 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 5.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.84% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 1.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.48% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.001 | ×1.042 | 22.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.01% | ÷1.012 | ×0.840 | ×1.001 | ×1.042 | 6.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.91% | ÷1.138 | ×0.940 | ×1.001 | ×1.042 | 0.79% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.44% | ÷1.080 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.88% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 128, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .342 → .300; ISO .137 → .115; BABIP .316 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hickory Crawdads · 473 PAwOBA .307 → .246 (−61)K% 21.1% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.14% | ÷0.974 | ×1.310 | — | — | 28.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 4.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.42% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.87% | ÷1.040 | ×0.870 | ×1.006 | ×1.027 | 20.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.34% | ÷0.960 | ×0.780 | ×1.006 | ×1.027 | 5.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.30% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.006 | ×1.027 | 0.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.32% | ÷0.948 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 3.17% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 108, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .307 → .246; ISO .130 → .112; BABIP .311 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADown East Wood Ducks · 456 PAwOBA .312 → .262 (−51)K% 19.1% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.08% | ÷1.014 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.77% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.97% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.66% | ÷0.994 | ×0.920 | ×0.998 | ×1.030 | 22.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.20% | ÷1.008 | ×0.830 | ×0.998 | ×1.030 | 6.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.32% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.998 | ×1.030 | 0.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.26% | ÷0.912 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.14% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 103, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .312 → .262; ISO .099 → .082; BABIP .325 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Rangers · 68 PAwOBA .296 → .222 (−74)K% 22.1% → 32.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.06% | ÷0.988 | ×1.440 | — | — | 32.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.41% | ÷1.071 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 2.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷0.994 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 18.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.015 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 3.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.064 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 3.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.015 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.68% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 113, K 98, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .296 → .222; ISO .148 → .104; BABIP .292 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .