Michael Busch

1B Chicago Cubs
Age 29 L/R 5'11" / 210 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 3.262 · Ctrl thru 2029
Overview
MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2030
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202426MLBCHC567.248/.337/.4402121181.0
202527MLBCHC592.261/.344/.5233441412.6
202628MLBCHC710.242/.355/.3932031131.5
2027PROJ29MLBCHC614.244/.346/.4302341202.3
2028PROJ30MLBCHC614.240/.341/.4202221161.8
2029PROJ31MLBCHC614.234/.335/.4072221111.4
Last 3 seasons WAR 5.1  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 5.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2029Service3.262First FA2030
2027Arb-1$5M2028Arb-2$6M2029Arb-3$8M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
xwOBA81
Barrel%77
Avg EV64
Speed20
Bat Spd12
Form.234/.341/.402 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .243/.343/.431
CompsJi Man Choi (age 29) · Jake Lamb (age 28) · Dan Johnson (age 30)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 94120vR 129
AVG/OBP/SLG.244 / .346 / .430
PA614
HR23
K%23
BB%12
BABIP290
ISO188
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +14.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+15BATRUN: -0.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +5.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+5FLDPOS: -11.0 runs (Positional adjustment)-11POSREP: +13.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+13REPTotal WAR: +2.30+2.3WAR
0.01.42.82.31.81.427282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$25M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT50
xAVG
330.237
POWER60
Barrel%
7712.3
Avg EV
6490.1
Bat Spd
1267.3
EYE55
scouting grade only
SPEED45
Sprint
2026.0
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%25%▼26% over 113 PA (60d) · proj 23%
BB%12%▲13% over 113 PA (60d) · proj 12%
ISO.168▼.135 over 96 AB (60d) · proj .188
HR/BB5.5%▼4.4% over 68 BBE (60d) · proj 6.1%
BABIP.288·.292 over 65 BIP (60d) · proj .287
SLASH.234/.341/.402▼proj .243/.343/.431
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1267 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
232
1035
—
wRC+
89
131
▶▶R
wOBA
300
361
▶▶R
ISO
135
235
▶▶R
BABIP
282
306
▶R
K%
24.6%
25.9%
◀L
BB%
9.1%
10.2%
▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-1
MLB Debut   2023
Service   3.262 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2029
First FA Year   2030
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Arb-1$5M+2.3$18M+$14M
2028Arb-2$6M+1.8$13M+$7M
2029Arb-3$8M+1.4$10M+$3M
Totals $19M $41M +$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201921 AGreat Lakes Loons — 1911 2000 631 00 182500182682 222 1632 354 89 — — — — — —
201921 ROKAZL Dodgers Lasorda — 1613 1000 122 00 7725077327 91 126 192 -23 — — — — — —
201921 INTLGlendale Desert Dogs — 2213 3001 940 10 2315454621.007 231250 1841 462 199 — — — — — —
202123 AATulsa Drillers — 495409 10927120 7012912 23 267389484873 218337 2614 385 97 — — — — — —
202224 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers — 504444 11832021 501315 32 266347480826 214327 2610 361 82 — — — — — —
202224 AATulsa Drillers — 137108 336011 24364 10 3064496671.115 361355 2618 473 138 — — — — — —
202325 MLBLos Angeles Dodgers — 8172 12302 8270 10 167250292542 125227 3310 246 56 -4 +0 -3 +2 +2 -0.3
202325 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers — 469390 12626427 658811 40 3234336181.051 295356 1914 452 130 — — — — — —
202426 MLBChicago Cubs — 567496 12328221 631624 21 248337440777 192322 2911 344 118 +12 +0 -4 -10 +12 1.0
202527 MLBChicago Cubs — 592524 13725534 5613910 40 261344523867 261292 239 377 141 +29 +1 -6 -11 +13 2.6
202628 MLBChicago Cubs — 710600 14527220 9216513 32 242355393748 152298 2313 338 113 +11 -0 +1 -13 +15 1.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 19501692 41783977 21949327 103 246342443785 196300 2511 348 122 +50 +1 -13 -31 +42 5.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201921 A MLEGreat Lakes Loons — 1913 2000 441 00 154389154543 209 2121 300 89 — — — — — —
201921 ROK MLEAZL Dodgers Lasorda — 1613 1000 132 00 7725077327 73 196 134 -23 — — — — — —
202123 AA MLETulsa Drillers — 495432 9723117 4716312 23 225318400718 176305 339 311 97 — — — — — —
202224 AAA MLEOklahoma City Dodgers — 504461 10328015 331565 32 223283382664 158294 317 290 82 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLETulsa Drillers — 137115 29509 17454 10 252368530898 278305 3312 372 138 — — — — — —
202325 MLB MLELos Angeles Dodgers — 8172 12302 8270 10 167250292542 125227 3310 250 56 -4 +0 -3 +2 +2 -0.3
202325 AAA MLEOklahoma City Dodgers — 469409 10822319 4610511 40 264354472826 208307 2210 360 130 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 567497 12327222 621624 21 247336443778 195322 2911 343 118 +12 +0 -4 -10 +12 1.0
202527 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 592526 13624435 5413910 40 259339519858 260292 239 376 141 +29 +1 -6 -11 +13 2.6
202628 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 710603 14526221 8916513 32 240350395745 154298 2313 335 113 +11 -0 +1 -13 +15 1.5
201921 INTL MLE3 teams — 5745 5000 8113 10 111286111397 143 1914 224 38 — — — — — —
201921 INTL RAW3 teams — 5737 6001 1693 10 162446243690 81179 1628 350 38 — — — — — —
202123 AA MLETulsa Drillers — 495432 9723117 4716312 23 225318400718 176312 339 311 97 — — — — — —
202123 AA RAWTulsa Drillers — 495409 10927120 7012912 23 267389484873 218337 2614 385 97 — — — — — —
202224 AAA MLE2 teams — 641576 13233024 502019 42 229301411712 182303 318 308 94 — — — — — —
202224 AAA RAW2 teams — 641552 15138032 741679 42 274369516885 243331 2612 385 94 — — — — — —
202325 AAA MLE2 teams — 550481 12025321 5413211 50 249339445784 195298 2410 344 119 — — — — — —
202325 AAA RAW2 teams — 550462 13829429 7311511 50 299407567974 268339 2113 422 119 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 567497 12327222 621624 21 247336443778 195319 2911 343 118 +12 +0 -4 -10 +12 1.0
202426 MLB RAWChicago Cubs — 567496 12328221 631624 21 248337440777 192322 2911 344 118 +12 +0 -4 -10 +12 1.0
202527 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 592526 13624435 5413910 40 259339519858 260285 239 376 141 +29 +1 -6 -11 +13 2.6
202527 MLB RAWChicago Cubs — 592524 13725534 5613910 40 261344523867 261292 239 377 141 +29 +1 -6 -11 +13 2.6
202628 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 710603 14526221 8916513 32 240350395745 154294 2313 335 113 +11 -0 +1 -13 +15 1.5
202628 MLB RAWChicago Cubs — 710600 14527220 9216513 32 242355393748 152298 2313 338 113 +11 -0 +1 -13 +15 1.5
201921 INTL MLE3 teams — 5746 5000 8113 10 109286109394 147 1914 224 38 — — — — — —
202123 AA MLETulsa Drillers — 495433 9723117 4716312 23 224318400717 176305 339 311 97 — — — — — —
202224 AAA MLE2 teams — 641577 13233024 502019 42 229301411712 182296 318 308 94 — — — — — —
202325 AAA MLE2 teams — 550480 12025321 5413211 50 250339446785 196295 2410 344 119 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 567496 12327222 621624 21 248336444779 196322 2911 343 118 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 592523 13624435 5413910 40 260339522861 262292 239 376 141 — — — — — —
202628 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 710602 14526221 8916513 32 241350395746 154298 2313 335 113 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202426 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 567496 12327222 621624 21 248336444779 196322 2911 343 118 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 592523 13624435 5413910 40 260339522861 262292 239 376 141 — — — — — —
202628 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 710602 14526221 8916513 32 241350395746 154298 2313 335 113 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202729 MLB MLECHC 100% 630541 13124224 7314811 41 243345431777 188287 2312 345 120 +15 +0 +5 -11 +14 2.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202729 MLB CTXCHC 100% 614527 12924323 7214410 41 244346430776 186290 2312 345 120 +15 +0 +5 -11 +13 2.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202830 MLB MLECHC 100% 614528 12623223 7114610 21 239341422763 182284 2412 340 116 +12 +0 +3 -11 +13 1.8
202931 MLB MLECHC 100% 614528 12322222 7114910 20 234335409744 175279 2412 333 111 +8 +0 +2 -11 +13 1.4
203032 MLB MLECHC 100% 614529 11921121 7015110 10 226327392719 166272 2511 323 105 +3 +0 +2 -11 +13 0.8
203133 MLB MLECHC 100% 521450 9816117 581328 10 217318371689 154264 2511 311 97 -2 +0 +0 -9 +11 0.0
202830 MLB CTXCHC 100% 614528 12724222 7114610 21 240341420761 180287 2412 340 116 +12 +0 +3 -11 +13 1.8
202931 MLB CTXCHC 100% 614528 12523222 7114910 20 234335407743 173282 2412 332 111 +8 +0 +2 -11 +13 1.4
203032 MLB CTXCHC 100% 614529 12021221 7015110 10 227328390718 163275 2511 322 105 +3 +0 +2 -11 +13 0.8
203133 MLB CTXCHC 100% 521450 9817116 581328 10 218318369687 152266 2511 310 97 -2 +0 +0 -9 +11 0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 43133727 88716816158 489107165 164 238337419755 181289 2511 336 111 +71 +2 -5 -74 +93 8.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650562 13325224 7416110 21 237336416753 180286 2511 336 111 +11 +0 -1 -11 +14 1.3
Career— MLE — 65895722 135226320247 7061695110 3110 236332419750 182289 2611 333 111 +86 +2 -0 -85 +107 11.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650564 13326224 7016711 31 236332417748 181289 2611 333 111 +11 +0 -0 -11 +14 1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 469 PAwOBA .442 → .360 (−82)K% 18.8% → 22.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.76%÷1.003×1.200——22.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.65%÷0.976×0.690—×1.0189.82%
HBP% /PA2.35%—×0.940—×1.0182.24%
Singles /BIP22.85%÷1.021×0.930×0.978×1.01820.73%
Doubles /BIP8.61%÷0.983×0.830×0.978×1.0187.24%
Triples /BIP1.32%÷1.150×0.970×0.978×1.0181.11%
Home runs /BIP8.94%÷1.006×0.700—×1.0186.33%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .442 → .360; ISO .295 → .224; BABIP .356 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 504 PAwOBA .355 → .290 (−65)K% 26.0% → 30.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.99%÷1.009×1.200——30.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.92%÷1.073×0.690—×1.0336.59%
HBP% /PA0.99%—×0.940—×1.0330.96%
Singles /BIP20.77%÷1.027×0.930×0.997×1.03319.36%
Doubles /BIP10.22%÷0.958×0.830×0.997×1.0339.13%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.955×0.970×0.997×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP6.71%÷0.997×0.700—×1.0334.87%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 105, 2B 92, 3B 91, K 102, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .355 → .290; ISO .214 → .166; BABIP .327 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATulsa Drillers · 137 PAwOBA .464 → .372 (−92)K% 26.3% → 33.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.28%÷0.971×1.220——33.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.52%÷0.975×0.700—×0.99812.55%
HBP% /PA2.92%—×0.870—×0.9982.54%
Singles /BIP22.22%÷0.953×0.920×0.958×0.99820.50%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷1.006×0.840×0.958×0.9986.65%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.940×0.958×0.9980.00%
Home runs /BIP15.28%÷0.993×0.800—×0.99812.28%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 91, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .464 → .372; ISO .361 → .286; BABIP .355 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AATulsa Drillers · 495 PAwOBA .379 → .311 (−68)K% 26.1% → 32.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.06%÷0.966×1.220——32.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.14%÷1.051×0.690—×1.0129.40%
HBP% /PA2.42%—×0.850—×1.0122.09%
Singles /BIP21.79%÷1.030×0.940×1.013×1.01220.38%
Doubles /BIP9.64%÷1.026×0.870×1.013×1.0128.38%
Triples /BIP0.36%÷0.900×0.920×1.013×1.0120.37%
Home runs /BIP7.14%÷0.935×0.780—×1.0126.03%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 106, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .379 → .311; ISO .218 → .183; BABIP .337 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AGreat Lakes Loons · 19 PAwOBA .368 → .300 (−68)K% 15.8% → 20.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.79%÷1.035×1.360——20.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA31.58%÷1.031×0.690——21.13%
HBP% /PA5.26%—×0.780——4.11%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.002×0.920——22.94%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.934×0.830——0.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.061×0.910——0.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.018×0.800——0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 100, 2B 87, 3B 112, K 107, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .368 → .300; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .222 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKAZL Dodgers Lasorda · 16 PAwOBA .188 → .134 (−55)K% 12.5% → 18.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.50%÷1.000×1.440——18.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.25%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9753.78%
HBP% /PA12.50%—×0.720—×0.9758.77%
Singles /BIP9.09%÷1.000×0.820—×0.9757.27%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9750.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9750.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9750.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .188 → .134; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .091 → .073. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .