Michael Busch — OGILVIE

Michael Busch1B Chicago Cubs

Age 28 L/R 5'11" / 210 lbs MLB BB +5%HR -4% Svc 2.262S2 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.1 · 2027

wRC+†vL 70109vR 117

AVG/OBP/SLG.249 / .334 / .477

PA592

HR29

K%25

BB%10

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50→50

PWR

60→60

SPD

45→45

EYE

57↘55

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.8peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.262 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$0.9M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$9M	+$6M
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.9	$4M	+$0.3M
2029	Arb-4	$4M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$19M	+$9M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	INTL	3 teams	57	45	5	0	0	0	8	11	3	1	0	.111	.286	.111	.397	.000	.143	19	14	.229	34	-4	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.4
2021	23	AA	Tulsa Drillers	495	432	92	21	1	18	47	174	12	2	3	.213	.308	.391	.699	.178	.303	35	9	.306	92	-4	-1	+0	-9	+14	0.0
2022	24	AAA	2 teams	641	576	123	30	0	25	50	215	9	4	2	.214	.287	.396	.682	.182	.287	34	8	.298	86	-10	+0	+0	-11	+18	-0.3
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	550	481	116	24	3	23	54	140	11	5	0	.241	.332	.447	.778	.206	.289	25	10	.335	115	+9	+1	-3	+2	+16	2.5
2024	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	567	496	126	30	2	21	63	162	4	2	1	.254	.343	.450	.792	.196	.331	29	11	.347	124	+15	+0	-4	-10	+16	1.7
2025	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	592	524	137	24	4	35	56	139	10	4	0	.261	.344	.523	.867	.261	.290	23	9	.370	141	+28	+1	-6	-11	+17	2.9
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	28	MLB	Chicago Cubs	103	91	18	2	0	2	11	22	0	0	0	.198	.284	.286	.570	.088	.235	21	11	.260	57	-5	+0	+1	-2	+3	-0.3
ROS	28	MLB	CHC	489	431	104	19	2	22	50	120	5	3	1	.241	.327	.448	.775	.206	.282	25	10	.342	120	+11	+0	-4	-9	+14	1.2
TOT	28	MLB	CHC	592	522	122	21	2	24	61	142	5	3	1	.234	.320	.420	.739	.186	.273	24	10	.327	109	+6	+0	-3	-11	+17	0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	29	MLB	CHC	580	510	123	23	3	25	59	118	6	2	1	.241	.327	.445	.772	.204	.262	20	10	.340	118	+12	+0	-6	-10	+16	1.2
2028	30	MLB	CHC	568	499	119	22	2	25	58	118	6	1	0	.238	.325	.441	.766	.202	.260	21	10	.336	116	+10	+0	-7	-10	+16	0.9
2029	31	MLB	CHC	553	486	114	21	2	23	56	117	6	0	0	.235	.321	.428	.749	.193	.259	21	10	.333	113	+8	+0	-7	-10	+16	0.6
2030	32	MLB	CHC	534	470	109	20	2	22	54	116	5	0	0	.232	.318	.423	.741	.191	.257	22	10	.327	108	+5	+0	-8	-10	+15	0.3
2031	33	MLB	CHC	504	443	100	18	2	20	51	113	5	0	0	.226	.313	.411	.723	.185	.255	22	10	.321	104	+2	+0	-8	-9	+14	-0.1
2032	34	MLB	CHC	457	404	89	16	2	17	46	106	4	0	0	.220	.306	.396	.702	.176	.252	23	10	.313	98	-1	+0	-9	-8	+13	-0.5
2033	35	MLB	CHC	401	354	76	13	2	14	40	97	4	0	0	.215	.302	.381	.683	.167	.249	24	10	.304	91	-4	+0	-9	-7	+11	-0.9
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6988	6151	1433	281	27	290	692	1746	90	24	8	.233	.319	.429	.748	.196	.275	25	10	.329	110	+76	+2	-73	-113	+198	9.2
/ 162G	—			650	572	134	26	3	27	64	162	8	2	1	.234	.319	.432	.751	.198	.276	25	10	.329	110	+7	+0	-7	-11	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	A	Great Lakes Loons	19	11	2	0	0	0	6	3	1	0	0	.182	.500	.182	.682	.000	.222	16	32	.354	129	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2019	21	ROK	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	16	13	1	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	.077	.250	.077	.327	.000	.091	12	6	.192	5	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2019	21	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	22	13	3	0	0	1	9	4	0	1	0	.231	.545	.462	1.007	.231	.250	18	41	.462	212	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2021	23	AA	Tulsa Drillers	495	409	109	27	1	20	70	129	12	2	3	.267	.389	.484	.873	.218	.337	26	14	.385	153	+30	-1	—	—	+14	4.4
2022	24	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	504	444	118	32	0	21	50	131	5	3	2	.266	.347	.480	.826	.214	.327	26	10	.361	135	+20	-0	—	—	+14	3.5
2022	24	AA	Tulsa Drillers	137	108	33	6	0	11	24	36	4	1	0	.306	.449	.667	1.115	.361	.355	26	18	.473	220	+19	+0	—	—	+4	2.3
2023	25	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	81	72	12	3	0	2	8	27	0	1	0	.167	.250	.292	.542	.125	.227	33	10	.246	46	-5	+0	-3	+2	+2	-0.3
2023	25	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	469	390	126	26	4	27	65	88	11	4	0	.323	.433	.618	1.051	.295	.356	19	14	.452	204	+55	+1	—	—	+13	7.1
2024	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	567	496	123	28	2	21	63	162	4	2	1	.248	.337	.440	.777	.192	.322	29	11	.344	121	+14	+0	-4	-10	+16	1.6
2025	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	592	524	137	25	5	34	56	139	10	4	0	.261	.344	.523	.867	.261	.292	23	9	.377	147	+31	+1	-6	-11	+17	3.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1240	1092	272	56	7	57	127	328	14	7	1	.249	.335	.470	.805	.221	.301	26	10	.353	129	+40	+1	-13	-19	+35	4.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Michael Busch (OGILVIE)	28	50	60	45	55	.240/.325/.444	.204	.263	26	4	20%	10%	120	+3.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Max Kepler 2021 · MLB	28	44→54	60	39→50	57	.237/.325/.455	.218	.241	28	5	17%	11%	121	+3.2	.233/.320/.428	.195	.252	24	8	18%	10%	112	+2.6	.233/.321/.423	.190	.255	23	6	19%	10%	108	+1.8
✕Eric Valent 2005 · MLB	28	50	54→60	44→30	51	.257/.324/.442	.185	.293	22	4	21%	9%	117	+2.9	.228/.303/.363	.135	.282	15	4	23%	10%	88	+0.9	.210/.299/.327	.116	.259	12	1	23%	11%	72	-0.1
✕Jake Lamb 2019 · MLB	28	46→54	57→60	45	56	.239/.334/.446	.206	.287	24	6	25%	12%	122	+3.3	.215/.316/.378	.163	.269	19	5	26%	12%	98	+1.6	.224/.314/.381	.158	.293	20	1	29%	10%	95	+0.8
●Mike Ford 2020 · MLB	28	45→50	57→60	44→30	52	.241/.314/.437	.195	.258	25	2	19%	9%	112	+2.6	.210/.286/.382	.172	.243	22	3	24%	9%	87	+0.8	.224/.307/.411	.187	.267	26	2	26%	9%	100	+0.8
●Joc Pederson 2019 · MLB	27	43→52	61→65	41→55	54	.237/.326/.468	.231	.262	28	6	22%	10%	125	+3.5	.238/.321/.472	.234	.259	31	4	22%	9%	124	+3.4	.257/.362/.473	.216	.296	28	5	22%	12%	134	+3.0
✕Kila Ka'aihue 2011 · MLB	27	45→50	57→60	42→30	59	.241/.336/.433	.192	.263	25	3	20%	12%	120	+3.1	.230/.312/.390	.160	.280	20	3	24%	10%	99	+1.7	.224/.305/.379	.156	.274	19	1	25%	10%	92	+0.8
●Jeff Liefer 2003 · MLB	28	46→52	58→60	43→30	47	.246/.308/.444	.198	.290	27	4	26%	8%	111	+2.5	.237/.291/.413	.176	.291	22	4	26%	7%	96	+1.5	.237/.283/.410	.173	.289	21	2	25%	6%	90	+0.4
●Scott Spiezio 2001 · MLB	28	46→56	59→55	43→45	58	.248/.335/.457	.209	.256	27	5	17%	11%	125	+3.5	.265/.336/.437	.172	.281	17	6	13%	9%	121	+3.2	.269/.340/.435	.166	.284	15	6	11%	9%	113	+2.5
✕Eddie Rosario 2020 · MLB	28	52→55	58→60	44→50	45	.277/.311/.477	.200	.292	27	7	17%	5%	121	+3.2	.253/.297/.441	.188	.268	25	9	17%	6%	106	+2.2	.233/.283/.395	.161	.268	20	8	21%	6%	84	+0.5
✕Austin Meadows 2022 · MLB	27	47→56	61→65	45→55	52	.251/.329/.480	.229	.281	28	8	22%	10%	129	+3.7	.233/.312/.389	.156	.265	17	6	18%	9%	98	+1.6	.221/.313/.301	.080	.257	3	0	14%	10%	76	+0.0
✕Chris Duncan 2009 · MLB	28	49→50	56→60	43→40	54	.254/.338/.444	.189	.308	24	4	25%	11%	124	+3.4	.215/.294/.340	.125	.272	13	5	24%	10%	79	+0.3	.189/.266/.293	.103	.241	11	3	25%	9%	53	-0.9
✕Travis Shaw 2019 · MLB	29	47→53	59→60	49→45	55	.249/.333/.460	.210	.279	27	7	22%	11%	126	+3.5	.223/.320/.409	.186	.269	24	5	26%	12%	108	+2.3	.199/.300/.363	.164	.250	22	2	29%	11%	83	+0.3
●Jay Bruce 2014 · MLB	27	48→55	59→65	45→50	51	.253/.327/.469	.216	.301	26	8	25%	10%	126	+3.5	.237/.304/.433	.196	.284	23	9	25%	9%	107	+2.2	.243/.311/.484	.240	.266	31	5	22%	9%	115	+2.8
✕Ji Man Choi 2020 · MLB	29	50→51	55→60	44→45	54	.255/.343/.449	.194	.308	23	5	24%	11%	127	+3.6	.246/.346/.427	.181	.314	20	3	26%	13%	122	+3.3	.234/.344/.403	.169	.315	17	0	28%	14%	107	+1.1
●Josh Reddick 2015 · MLB	28	48→58	55→60	51→50	51	.249/.313/.439	.190	.277	22	8	20%	8%	111	+2.5	.272/.331/.442	.170	.292	19	9	14%	8%	120	+3.1	.283/.343/.446	.162	.302	18	9	13%	8%	122	+2.9
●Scott Hairston 2008 · MLB	28	47→51	56→60	52→50	49	.248/.311/.444	.196	.280	24	6	22%	8%	113	+2.6	.248/.307/.442	.194	.282	23	9	21%	7%	111	+2.5	.242/.304/.428	.187	.271	23	10	20%	7%	102	+1.2
✕Paul DeJong 2022 · MLB	28	42→50	58→65	46→45	50	.229/.311/.429	.200	.262	27	7	25%	9%	109	+2.4	.208/.274/.386	.178	.258	25	6	30%	7%	83	+0.6	.223/.274/.393	.170	.292	24	5	32%	5%	83	+0.3
●Mike Moustakas 2017 · MLB	28	49→54	54→65	40→45	51	.252/.314/.431	.178	.259	22	3	14%	7%	111	+2.5	.263/.320/.489	.226	.267	31	3	16%	7%	128	+3.7	.258/.320/.491	.233	.260	33	2	16%	7%	121	+3.2
✕Stephen Piscotty 2019 · MLB	28	50→54	56→60	41→45	51	.260/.335/.458	.197	.293	24	5	20%	9%	126	+3.5	.251/.313/.426	.175	.296	22	6	23%	7%	108	+2.3	.241/.298/.391	.150	.295	19	5	24%	7%	90	+0.5
✕Daryle Ward 2002 · MLB	27	48→56	61→60	47→30	47	.259/.312/.483	.225	.282	30	3	21%	7%	124	+3.4	.256/.307/.417	.161	.287	18	3	17%	7%	104	+2.0	.259/.324/.444	.185	.273	22	0	14%	8%	108	+1.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)