Michael Busch — OGILVIE

Michael Busch1B Chicago Cubs

Age 28 L/R 5'11" / 210 lbs MLB Svc 2.262S2 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION424 act + 276 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 93131vR 145

AVG/OBP/SLG.249 / .361 / .446

PA276

HR10

K%23

BB%13

BABIP300

ISO197

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

Whiff%

778.2%

xwOBA

860.350

POWER60

Barrel%

8313.1

Avg EV

6890.3

Bat Spd

1267.3

EYE55

Chase%

9020.1%

SPEED45

Sprint

1625.8

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1267 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

232

1035

—

wRC+

135

▶▶R

wOBA

300

361

▶▶R

ISO

135

235

▶▶R

BABIP

282

306

▶R

24.6%

25.9%

◀L

BB%

9.1%

10.2%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.262 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+1.2	$10M	+$9M
2027	Arb-2	$7M	+3.4	$25M	+$19M
2028	Arb-3	$11M	+3.1	$21M	+$12M
2029	Arb-4	$14M	+2.7	$17M	+$7M
Totals		$32M		$73M	+$48M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	INTL	3 teams	—	57	46	5	0	0	0	7	11	3	1	0	109	268	109	377		139	19	12	224	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	INTL	3 teams	—	57	37	6	0	0	1	16	9	3	1	0	162	446	243	690	81	179	16	28	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	495	435	93	21	1	20	44	178	12	2	3	214	303	405	708	191	303	36	9	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	495	409	109	27	1	20	70	129	12	2	3	267	389	484	873	218	337	26	14	385	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	2 teams	—	641	578	125	32	0	25	48	215	9	4	2	216	287	401	688	185	291	34	7	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AAA	2 teams	—	641	552	151	38	0	32	74	167	9	4	2	274	369	516	885	243	331	26	12	385	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	—	550	479	114	24	2	23	56	140	11	5	0	238	332	441	772	203	284	25	10	334	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AAA	2 teams	—	550	462	138	29	4	29	73	115	11	5	0	299	407	567	974	268	339	21	13	422	181	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	567	496	121	27	2	20	63	162	4	2	1	244	334	427	761	183	318	29	11	335	115	+9	+0	-4	-10	+16	1.1
2024	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	567	496	123	28	2	21	63	162	4	2	1	248	337	440	777	192	322	29	11	344	121	+14	+0	-4	-10	+16	1.6
2025	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	592	524	136	25	5	33	56	139	10	4	0	260	342	515	858	256	291	23	9	366	139	+26	+1	-6	-11	+17	2.7
2025	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	592	524	137	25	5	34	56	139	10	4	0	261	344	523	867	261	292	23	9	377	147	+31	+1	-6	-11	+17	3.3
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	MLB	CHC	—	424	347	83	17	2	11	63	94	10	2	1	239	371	395	766	156	293	22	15	342	120	+9	+0	+1	-8	+12	1.5
YTD	28	MLB	CHC	—	424	347	83	17	2	11	63	94	10	2	1	239	371	395	766	156	293	22	15	347	124	+11	+0	+1	-8	+12	1.7
ROS	28	MLB	CHC	100%	276	233	58	12	2	10	35	64	6	2	1	249	361	446	808	197	300	23	13	359	133	+10	+0	+2	-5	+8	1.5
ROS	28	MLB	CHC	100%	276	233	58	12	2	10	35	64	6	2	1	249	361	446	808	197	301	23	13	346	123	+7	+0	+2	-5	+8	1.2
FULL	28	MLB	CHC	—	700	580	141	29	4	21	98	158	16	4	2	243	367	416	783	172	296	23	14	343	121	+17	+0	+3	-12	+20	2.7
TOT	28	MLB	CHC	—	700	580	141	29	4	21	98	158	16	4	2	243	367	416	783	172	296	23	14	349	125	+20	+0	+3	-12	+20	3.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	CHC	100%	660	557	139	29	4	24	85	155	13	4	1	250	362	445	807	196	300	23	13	357	132	+24	+0	+3	-12	+19	3.5
2028	30	MLB	CHC	100%	660	557	136	29	3	23	85	157	13	3	1	244	357	431	788	187	298	24	13	354	129	+22	+0	+2	-12	+19	3.2
2029	31	MLB	CHC	100%	660	557	134	28	3	23	85	159	13	3	1	241	354	425	780	185	294	24	13	349	125	+19	+0	+2	-12	+19	2.8
2030	32	MLB	CHC	100%	652	550	130	27	3	22	84	160	13	2	1	236	351	416	767	180	288	25	13	342	120	+15	+0	+1	-12	+18	2.3
2031	33	MLB	CHC	100%	562	474	108	22	2	18	72	140	11	2	1	228	343	397	740	169	281	25	13	333	113	+8	+0	-0	-10	+16	1.4
2032	34	MLB	CHC	100%	475	402	87	17	2	14	61	122	9	1	0	216	333	373	706	157	272	26	13	322	104	+2	+0	-2	-8	+13	0.6
2033	35	MLB	CHC	100%	401	340	70	13	2	11	51	106	7	1	0	206	322	353	675	147	261	26	13	309	95	-2	+0	-3	-7	+11	-0.1
2027	29	MLB	CHC	100%	660	557	140	30	4	24	85	155	13	4	1	251	363	449	812	197	301	23	13	345	122	+16	+0	+3	-12	+19	2.7
2028	30	MLB	CHC	100%	660	557	137	29	3	24	85	157	13	3	1	246	359	438	797	192	299	24	13	341	119	+14	+0	+2	-12	+19	2.4
2029	31	MLB	CHC	100%	660	557	135	29	3	23	85	159	13	3	1	242	356	429	785	187	295	24	13	337	116	+12	+0	+2	-12	+19	2.1
2030	32	MLB	CHC	100%	652	550	130	27	3	22	84	160	13	2	1	236	351	416	767	180	290	25	13	329	110	+8	+0	+1	-12	+18	1.6
2031	33	MLB	CHC	100%	562	474	108	22	2	18	72	140	11	2	1	228	343	397	740	169	282	25	13	320	103	+2	+0	-0	-10	+16	0.8
2032	34	MLB	CHC	100%	475	402	89	17	2	15	61	122	9	1	0	221	337	386	722	164	273	26	13	309	95	-3	+0	-2	-8	+13	0.1
2033	35	MLB	CHC	100%	401	340	72	13	2	12	51	106	7	1	0	212	327	368	694	156	263	26	13	297	86	-7	+0	-3	-7	+11	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5586	4762	1141	235	28	205	685	1391	99	25	7	240	347	430	777	190	293	25	12	335	114	+90	+2	-8	-96	+158	14.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	554	132	27	3	24	80	162	12	3	1	238	347	428	775	190	291	25	12	335	114	+11	+0	-1	-11	+18	1.7
Career	—			—	7248	6228	1456	306	31	266	832	1908	134	36	12	234	337	421	758	187	291	26	11	336	115	+124	+2	-8	-118	+205	21.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	559	130	27	3	24	75	171	12	3	1	233	336	420	757	188	288	26	12	336	115	+11	+0	-1	-11	+18	1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	19	11	2	0	0	0	6	3	1	0	0	182	500	182	682		222	16	32	354	129	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2019	21	ROK	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	—	16	13	1	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	77	250	77	327		91	12	6	192	5	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2019	21	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	22	13	3	0	0	1	9	4	0	1	0	231	545	462	1.007	231	250	18	41	462	212	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2021	23	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	495	409	109	27	1	20	70	129	12	2	3	267	389	484	873	218	337	26	14	385	153	+30	-1	—	—	+14	4.4
2022	24	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	504	444	118	32	0	21	50	131	5	3	2	266	347	480	826	214	327	26	10	361	135	+20	-0	—	—	+14	3.5
2022	24	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	137	108	33	6	0	11	24	36	4	1	0	306	449	667	1.115	361	355	26	18	473	220	+19	+0	—	—	+4	2.3
2023	25	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	81	72	12	3	0	2	8	27	0	1	0	167	250	292	542	125	227	33	10	246	46	-5	+0	-3	+2	+2	-0.3
2023	25	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	469	390	126	26	4	27	65	88	11	4	0	323	433	618	1.051	295	356	19	14	452	204	+55	+1	—	—	+13	7.1
2024	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	567	496	123	28	2	21	63	162	4	2	1	248	337	440	777	192	322	29	11	344	121	+14	+0	-4	-10	+16	1.6
2025	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	592	524	137	25	5	34	56	139	10	4	0	261	344	523	867	261	292	23	9	377	147	+31	+1	-6	-11	+17	3.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1240	1092	272	56	7	57	127	328	14	7	1	249	335	470	805	221	301	26	10	353	129	+40	+1	-13	-19	+35	4.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Anthony Rizzolast yr '24 career totals — 14 seasons, 7,336 PA	14	7,336	303	72	261	361	467	-131	-79	28.6	27.3
	/162	664	27	7	261	361	467	-11.9	-7.1	2.6	pk7: 26
#2Nick Swisherlast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,308 PA	12	6,308	245	13	249	351	447	-62	-56	24.5	24.4
	/162	664	26	1	249	351	447	-6.5	-5.9	2.6	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	12	6,427	235	29	240	344	430	-115	-60	20.8	19.6
	/162	664	24	3	240	344	430	-11.9	-6.2	2.1	pk7: 18
#3Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	13	6,603	318	65	245	314	469	-71	-54	19.6	19.5
#3Jay Brucelast yr '20 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,603 PA	/162	664	32	7	245	314	469	-7.1	-5.4	2.0	pk7: 19
#4Brandon Beltlast yr '23 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,483 PA	13	5,483	194	47	261	357	460	-96	-62	19.3	18.2
	/162	664	23	6	261	357	460	-11.7	-7.5	2.3	pk7: 17
#5Carlos Penalast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,856 PA	13	5,856	285	29	231	346	462	-98	-110	14.2	15.3
	/162	664	32	3	231	346	462	-11.2	-12.5	1.6	pk7: 16
#6Adam LaRochelast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,329 PA	12	6,329	255	13	260	336	462	-113	-125	10.7	12.1
	/162	664	27	1	260	336	462	-11.9	-13.1	1.1	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Michael Busch (OGILVIE)	28	50	60	45	55	243/367/416	172	296	21	4	23%	14%	125	+3.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jake Lamb 2019 · MLB	28	45→55	56→60	44→45	56	237/333/437	200	286	23	6	25%	12%	120	+3.1	212/312/370	158	267	18	4	26%	11%	95	+1.4	223/310/383	161	291	20	1	29%	10%	94	+0.7
✕Chris Duncan 2009 · MLB	28	49→50	54→60	43→40	55	252/339/433	181	306	23	4	25%	12%	121	+3.2	210/288/330	120	267	13	5	25%	10%	73	-0.1	188/264/289	101	241	10	3	25%	9%	50	-1.0
✕Ji Man Choi 2020 · MLB	29	49→50	55	43→45	56	252/344/445	193	302	22	4	24%	12%	126	+3.5	241/343/423	182	308	20	3	26%	13%	120	+3.1	229/340/401	172	307	18	0	28%	14%	109	+1.2
✕Eric Valent 2005 · MLB	28	50	55→60	43→30	51	259/325/447	188	293	23	4	21%	9%	119	+3.1	226/300/357	131	282	14	4	24%	10%	85	+0.7	210/299/326	116	259	12	1	23%	11%	71	-0.2
●Matt Joyce 2013 · MLB	28	49→53	56→60	48→50	56	252/341/450	198	291	22	9	22%	11%	126	+3.5	236/329/403	167	278	18	6	21%	12%	109	+2.4	238/352/447	209	270	25	3	21%	15%	125	+2.2
✕Hee-Seop Choi 2006 · MLB	27	48→49	55	40→30	57	248/347/442	194	293	22	3	23%	12%	127	+3.6	224/310/382	158	270	18	5	23%	10%	96	+1.5	175/271/299	124	210	15	0	24%	11%	57	-0.6
✕Kila Ka'aihue 2011 · MLB	27	45→50	57→60	42→30	59	241/335/433	193	266	25	3	21%	12%	120	+3.1	235/314/397	162	287	20	3	24%	10%	102	+1.8	230/309/384	154	283	19	1	25%	10%	96	+0.9
●Lucas Duda 2015 · MLB	29	46→54	56→65	39→30	55	241/338/432	191	288	24	3	25%	12%	121	+3.2	241/338/473	232	280	29	2	25%	11%	131	+3.9	231/333/485	254	262	33	0	26%	12%	125	+2.4
●Daniel Vogelbach 2022 · MLB	29	44→53	57→60	45→40	64	236/355/432	196	273	26	3	24%	16%	128	+3.6	239/348/419	180	292	22	3	24%	14%	121	+3.2	236/352/421	185	287	24	0	25%	15%	120	+2.0
●Ben Broussard 2005 · MLB	28	51→56	55→60	48→45	53	262/342/459	197	294	21	6	19%	9%	129	+3.7	268/326/460	192	308	22	5	20%	7%	123	+3.3	270/321/455	185	309	23	3	20%	6%	113	+1.8
●Adam Lind 2011 · MLB	28	51→60	57→60	45→40	48	266/320/470	205	298	24	2	20%	7%	123	+3.3	261/317/448	187	294	25	2	20%	7%	116	+2.8	290/364/477	187	329	21	0	18%	10%	133	+3.2
●Justin Bour 2017 · MLB	29	51→56	57→65	46→40	52	267/331/461	193	293	25	3	19%	9%	125	+3.5	255/343/467	212	294	29	3	23%	12%	131	+3.9	241/339/454	213	280	30	2	25%	13%	119	+2.3
●Willson Contreras 2020 · MLB	28	51→61	56→60	44→45	51	260/343/460	200	309	24	5	24%	10%	130	+3.8	246/344/443	197	299	24	5	25%	10%	127	+3.6	262/360/470	208	325	25	5	26%	10%	136	+3.1
✕Stephen Piscotty 2019 · MLB	28	51→54	56→60	41→45	51	262/336/462	200	296	23	5	20%	9%	128	+3.6	249/310/421	172	297	21	6	23%	7%	106	+2.2	239/296/390	150	292	19	5	24%	7%	91	+0.5
●Nathaniel Lowe 2023 · MLB	28	56→60	53→55	48→40	51	281/350/454	173	344	21	5	24%	9%	131	+3.9	260/346/413	153	325	17	3	23%	11%	118	+3.0	245/339/389	144	307	16	1	24%	12%	106	+2.3
●Matt Adams 2017 · MLB	28	49→57	55→65	43→40	46	254/306/441	186	296	22	4	23%	7%	110	+2.4	252/308/481	229	290	32	2	25%	7%	121	+3.2	246/302/487	241	281	35	0	27%	7%	114	+1.6
●Brian Daubach 2001 · MLB	29	48→52	55→60	44→40	48	249/316/443	194	294	22	3	24%	8%	115	+2.7	256/340/463	207	308	24	3	24%	10%	129	+3.7	255/349/463	207	308	24	2	24%	12%	126	+2.3
●Rhys Hoskins 2021 · MLB	28	44→54	60→65	44→45	63	234/359/460	226	270	26	4	24%	15%	136	+4.2	242/335/472	230	283	28	4	25%	11%	130	+3.8	232/321/457	226	270	30	3	26%	11%	119	+2.7
●David Dellucci 2002 · MLB	28	53→46	53→65	44→50	51	269/337/448	179	313	21	7	21%	9%	124	+3.4	246/328/409	163	297	17	12	22%	10%	110	+2.4	256/359/490	234	292	29	7	22%	13%	140	+3.0
●Kole Calhoun 2016 · MLB	28	52→57	54→60	46→50	47	267/320/445	178	310	22	6	22%	7%	116	+2.8	253/327/420	167	296	19	5	21%	9%	113	+2.6	243/326/406	163	283	19	4	20%	10%	105	+2.2