Brad Pacheco
P
Clearwater Threshers
Age 21
RHP
6'0" / 175 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION68 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 104
ERA4.58
FIP4.58
K%19.8%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%10.9%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 5 | 5 | 17 | 63 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 3.4 | 24.8% | 6.0% | 18.9% | 0.0% | 1.59 | 1.76 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 5 | 5 | 17 | 63 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 3.4 | 36.5% | 4.8% | 31.7% | 0.0% | 1.59 | 0.92 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Phillies | 12 | 12 | 45 | 198 | 46 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 3.8 | 15.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 6.15 | 4.75 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Phillies | 12 | 12 | 45 | 198 | 46 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 3.8 | 23.2% | 7.1% | 16.2% | 2.0% | 6.15 | 3.14 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 16 | 14 | 68 | 282 | 74 | 15 | 7 | 88% | 4.3 | 19.4% | 6.3% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.08 | 4.03 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | PHI | 7 | 7 | 36 | 151 | 30 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.1 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.8% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.61 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 104 | 433 | 104 | 28 | 12 | — | — | 24.0% | 6.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.22 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | PHI | 7 | 7 | 38 | 158 | 34 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.2% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | PHI | 7 | 7 | 39 | 164 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.1% | 8.2% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | PHI | 7 | 7 | 40 | 168 | 38 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.7% | 8.0% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 7 | 7 | 40 | 171 | 39 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.1% | 7.9% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 7 | 7 | 40 | 171 | 40 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.3% | 7.9% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.08 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 7 | 7 | 40 | 168 | 39 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.3% | 7.9% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 6 | 6 | 39 | 163 | 38 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 23.2% | 8.1% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | PHI | 4 | 4 | 18 | 76 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 4.5 | 21.2% | 8.4% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | PHI | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.1% | 8.2% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | PHI | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 32 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.7% | 8.0% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 7.9% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 36 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.3% | 7.9% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 36 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.3% | 7.9% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 35 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 8.1% | 15.1% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 39 | 225 | 952 | 217 | 76 | 28 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.8% | 8.0% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 3.81 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 193 | 67 | 25 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.8% | 8.0% | 14.8% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 33 | 31 | 131 | 543 | 102 | 39 | 16 | 94% | 4.0 | 18.7% | 7.2% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.03 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 47 | 200 | 831 | 156 | 60 | 24 | 94% | 4.0 | 18.7% | 7.2% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brad Pacheco (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.25 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 116 | -0.33 | — | — | — |
| José López R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.32 | 3.08 | 543 | 89 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 88 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .331 | 6.04 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.32 | 4.72 | 283 | 87 |
| Chad Patrick R 2028 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 87 |
| Logan Gragg R 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.02 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .343 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 412 | 87 |
| Jared Karros R 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 85 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2028 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 84 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 84 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.10 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.42 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.68 | 2.58 | 408 | 84 |
| Tanner Burns R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.07 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .292 | 5.42 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.35 | 4.07 | 378 | 83 |
| Tommy Bergjans R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.49 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 1.5% | .327 | 4.29 | 15.7% | 9.7% | 268 | +0.80 | 3.49 | 322 | 83 |
| Marcelo Perez R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 217 | +0.97 | 4.02 | 285 | 83 |
| Dylan DeLucia R 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | .241 | 5.26 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 176 | +1.61 | 3.65 | 211 | 83 |
| Mike Vasil R 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.71 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .264 | 4.60 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 359 | +0.89 | 3.71 | 429 | 83 |
| John Klein R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.59 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.12 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 264 | -0.47 | 3.23 | 317 | 83 |
| Cody Stashak R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.07 | 19.7% | 7.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 3.55 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 261 | -0.52 | 1.99 | 467 | 83 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 82 |
| Christian Roa R 2027 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.02 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 3.6% | .321 | 4.92 | 22.7% | 6.2% | 260 | -0.10 | 4.38 | 406 | 82 |
| Jordany Ventura R 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.08 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 219 | 82 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 39 | 22.4% | 8.1% | 1.13 | 4.26 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Tyler Duffey ('22) | 8 | 59 | 23.0% | 6.8% | 1.25 | 4.57 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |