Brad Pacheco

P Clearwater Threshers

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP45OGV rank#109ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ROKPHI	12	12	45	6.15	3.14	23.2%	7.1%	—	K 15.8% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.58
2026	21	APHI	23	21	101	4.00	2.97	26.6%	5.3%	—	K 19.7% · BB 6.2% · FIP 4.11
2027PROJ	22	MLBPHI	—	—	0	4.22	4.22	20.6%	6.2%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBPHI	11	11	60	4.25	4.19	21.8%	6.0%	0.9
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBPHI	15	15	85	4.16	4.10	22.4%	5.9%	1.4

Next 3 projected WAR 2.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$4M2033Arb-2$5M2034Arb-3$6M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 9.4, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 85%

CompsLogan Workman (age 23) · Braxton Bragg (age 23) · Matt Tabor (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.22

FIP4.22

K%20.6%

BB%6.2%

K-BB%14.4%

Proj IP121

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$57M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$9M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$9M	+$8M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$9M	+$9M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.5	$8M	+$6M
2033	Arb-2	$5M	+1.4	$7M	+$4M
2034	Arb-3	$6M	+1.2	$6M	+$3M
Totals		$18M		$49M	+$39M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	5	5	17	63	23	3	0	100%	3.4	24.8%	6.0%	18.9%	0.0%	1.59	1.76	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	5	5	17	63	23	3	0	100%	3.4	24.8%	6.0%	18.9%	0.0%	1.59	1.76	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	5	5	17	63	23	3	0	100%	3.4	36.5%	4.8%	31.7%	0.0%	1.59	0.92	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	12	12	45	198	46	14	4	100%	3.8	15.8%	8.8%	7.0%	3.1%	6.15	4.58	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	12	12	45	198	46	14	4	100%	3.8	15.8%	8.8%	7.0%	3.1%	6.15	4.58	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	12	12	45	198	46	14	4	100%	3.8	23.2%	7.1%	16.2%	2.0%	6.15	3.14	—
2026	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	23	21	101	418	111	22	11	91%	4.4	19.7%	6.2%	13.4%	3.4%	4.00	4.11	—
2026	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	23	21	101	418	111	22	11	91%	4.4	19.7%	6.2%	13.4%	3.4%	4.00	4.11	—
2026	21	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	23	21	101	418	111	22	11	91%	4.4	26.6%	5.3%	21.3%	2.6%	4.00	2.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	PHI	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.6%	6.2%	14.4%	3.1%	4.22	4.22	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	PHI	23	23	121	512	111	31	15	100%	5.3	21.8%	6.0%	15.7%	3.0%	4.13	4.07	+1.9
2029	24	MLB MLE	PHI	22	22	121	512	115	30	15	100%	5.5	22.4%	5.9%	16.5%	3.0%	4.04	3.98	+2.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	PHI	17	17	101	426	97	25	13	100%	5.9	22.8%	5.9%	16.9%	3.0%	3.98	3.94	+1.8
2031	26	MLB MLE	PHI	17	17	101	425	98	25	13	100%	5.9	23.0%	5.9%	17.1%	3.0%	3.95	3.92	+1.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	PHI	16	16	98	415	95	25	13	100%	6.2	23.0%	6.0%	17.0%	3.0%	3.96	3.96	+1.7
2033	28	MLB MLE	PHI	16	16	94	397	91	24	12	100%	5.9	22.8%	6.1%	16.7%	3.1%	4.01	4.04	+1.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	88	371	84	24	12	100%	5.9	22.6%	6.3%	16.2%	3.3%	4.11	4.17	+1.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	80	336	75	22	12	100%	6.1	22.2%	6.6%	15.6%	3.5%	4.25	4.35	+1.0
2036	31	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	71	299	65	21	11	100%	5.9	21.8%	7.0%	14.9%	3.7%	4.43	4.55	+0.7
2037	32	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	62	262	56	19	10	100%	6.2	21.4%	7.4%	14.0%	4.0%	4.64	4.78	+0.4
2038	33	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	54	228	48	18	10	100%	6.0	20.9%	7.8%	13.1%	4.2%	4.87	5.03	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	60	253	55	15	8	100%	5.5	21.8%	6.0%	15.7%	3.2%	4.25	4.19	+0.9
2029	24	MLB CTX	PHI	15	15	85	359	80	21	12	100%	5.7	22.4%	5.9%	16.5%	3.2%	4.16	4.10	+1.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	PHI	14	14	82	346	79	20	11	100%	5.9	22.8%	5.9%	16.9%	3.2%	4.10	4.06	+1.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	PHI	15	15	88	372	85	22	12	100%	5.9	23.0%	5.9%	17.1%	3.2%	4.07	4.04	+1.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	PHI	15	15	89	376	86	22	12	100%	5.9	23.0%	6.0%	17.0%	3.2%	4.08	4.08	+1.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	PHI	14	14	87	367	84	22	12	100%	6.2	22.8%	6.1%	16.7%	3.4%	4.13	4.16	+1.4
2034	29	MLB CTX	PHI	14	14	82	346	78	22	12	100%	5.9	22.6%	6.3%	16.2%	3.5%	4.24	4.30	+1.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	75	317	70	21	12	100%	6.2	22.2%	6.6%	15.6%	3.7%	4.39	4.49	+0.9
2036	31	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	67	283	62	20	11	100%	6.1	21.8%	7.0%	14.9%	4.0%	4.58	4.70	+0.7
2037	32	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	59	249	53	18	11	100%	5.9	21.4%	7.4%	14.0%	4.2%	4.80	4.94	+0.4
2038	33	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	51	215	45	17	10	100%	6.4	20.9%	7.8%	13.1%	4.5%	5.04	5.20	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		140	140	823	3476	777	221	122	100%	5.9	22.4%	6.4%	16.0%	3.5%	4.30	3.95	+14.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	189	54	30	100%	5.9	22.4%	6.4%	16.0%	3.5%	4.30	3.95	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		40	38	164	679	129	47	20	95%	4.1	19.0%	7.0%	12.1%	3.0%	4.34	4.03	+14.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	46	200	830	158	58	25	95%	4.1	19.0%	7.0%	12.1%	3.0%	4.34	4.03	+2.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AClearwater Threshers · 101 IPFIP 2.97 → 4.11 (+1.14)K% 26.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.56%	—	×0.740	19.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×1.180	6.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.42%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.97 → 4.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Phillies · 45 IPFIP 3.14 → 4.58 (+1.44)K% 23.2% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.23%	—	×0.680	15.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.07%	—	×1.250	8.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.02%	÷0.917	×1.400	3.09%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 3.14 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Phillies Red · 17 IPFIP 0.62 → 1.76 (+1.14)K% 36.5% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.51%	—	×0.680	24.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.250	5.95%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.913	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.62 → 1.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brad Pacheco (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.00	22.3%	16.3%	343	-0.22	—	—	—
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	362	-0.39	3.82	579	90
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	87
Matt Tabor R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	21	SP	3.36	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.90	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.54	3.36	203	87
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	86
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	86
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.49	15.0%	7.2%	236	+1.29	3.05	420	86
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	86
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	85
Connor Lunn R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	18.9%	4.7%	2.9%	.310	4.64	16.5%	10.0%	212	+0.97	3.67	332	85
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	85
Matt Frisbee R 2019 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP	4.00	22.0%	6.0%	3.6%	.289	5.47	18.2%	11.7%	252	+1.47	4.00	463	85
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	84
Mason Black R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	22.3%	9.0%	2.9%	.297	4.62	21.2%	11.3%	364	+0.67	3.95	569	83
Jason Bahr R 2018 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.33	315	83
Tanner Gordon R 2021 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	18.5%	5.5%	3.8%	.290	4.67	18.5%	11.9%	349	+0.32	4.10	715	83
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	83
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.03	19.7%	12.5%	153	-0.63	3.62	266	83
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.16	357	83
Rhett Lowder R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	22	SP	3.36	19.3%	7.3%	1.7%	.301	4.33	17.1%	8.0%	133	+0.97	3.36	267	82
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.6	93	22.1%	6.3%	1.25	4.17
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Doug Bird ('73-'83, 10 WAR*)	6.1	110	20.3%*	5.8%*	1.41*	4.43*
Scott Bankhead ('86-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	100	21.2%*	7.3%*	1.36*	4.16*
Carlos Villanueva ('16)	5.0	91	20.4%	7.6%	1.25	4.31
Jesse Chavez ('25)	5.7	82	21.4%	7.4%	1.32	4.27
Craig Lefferts ('83-'94, 10 WAR*)	5.7	95	19.5%*	6.7%*	1.40*	3.93*