Brad Pacheco — OGILVIE

Brad Pacheco P Clearwater Threshers

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.9 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%19.8%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$34M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF3550

CMD3550

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2033	Arb-2	$5M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$7M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$24M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	5	5	17	63	23	3	0	100%	3.4	24.8%	6.0%	18.9%	0.0%	1.59	1.76	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	5	5	17	63	23	3	0	100%	3.4	24.8%	6.0%	18.9%	0.0%	1.59	1.76	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	5	5	17	63	23	3	0	100%	3.4	36.5%	4.8%	31.7%	0.0%	1.59	0.92	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	12	12	45	198	46	14	4	100%	3.8	15.8%	8.8%	7.0%	3.1%	6.15	4.58	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	12	12	45	198	46	14	4	100%	3.8	15.8%	8.8%	7.0%	3.1%	6.15	4.58	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	12	12	45	198	46	14	4	100%	3.8	23.2%	7.1%	16.2%	2.0%	6.15	3.14	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	23	21	101	418	111	22	11	91%	4.4	19.7%	6.2%	13.4%	3.4%	4.00	4.11	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	23	21	101	418	111	22	11	91%	4.4	19.7%	6.2%	13.4%	3.4%	4.00	4.11	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	PHI	23	21	101	418	111	22	11	91%	4.4	26.6%	5.3%	21.3%	2.6%	4.00	2.97	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	PHI	20	20	104	440	93	36	13	100%	5.2	21.1%	8.1%	13.0%	2.9%	4.40	4.33	+0.7
2028	23	MLB MLE	PHI	20	20	108	456	100	35	13	100%	5.4	21.9%	7.7%	14.1%	2.9%	4.27	4.19	+0.9
2029	24	MLB MLE	PHI	20	20	111	468	105	35	13	100%	5.5	22.4%	7.5%	14.9%	2.9%	4.17	4.11	+1.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	PHI	19	19	112	474	108	35	13	100%	5.9	22.8%	7.4%	15.4%	2.8%	4.10	4.05	+1.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	PHI	19	19	112	474	109	35	13	100%	5.9	23.0%	7.3%	15.6%	2.8%	4.06	4.03	+1.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	PHI	18	18	110	467	107	35	14	100%	6.1	23.0%	7.4%	15.6%	2.9%	4.07	4.07	+1.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	PHI	18	18	107	453	103	34	14	100%	6.0	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	3.0%	4.12	4.15	+1.0
2034	29	MLB MLE	PHI	17	17	102	432	98	34	14	100%	6.0	22.6%	7.8%	14.8%	3.1%	4.22	4.28	+0.7
2035	30	MLB MLE	PHI	16	16	96	407	91	33	14	100%	6.0	22.3%	8.1%	14.2%	3.3%	4.37	4.46	+0.5
2036	31	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	90	379	83	32	14	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.5%	13.4%	3.6%	4.55	4.66	+0.2
2037	32	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	83	351	75	31	13	100%	5.9	21.4%	8.8%	12.6%	3.8%	4.75	4.89	+0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	51	215	45	17	7	100%	5.1	21.1%	8.1%	13.0%	3.1%	4.52	4.45	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	PHI	15	15	79	334	73	26	10	100%	5.3	21.9%	7.7%	14.1%	3.1%	4.38	4.30	+0.7
2029	24	MLB CTX	PHI	16	16	92	388	87	29	12	100%	5.8	22.4%	7.5%	14.9%	3.1%	4.28	4.22	+0.9
2030	25	MLB CTX	PHI	17	17	99	418	95	31	13	100%	5.8	22.8%	7.4%	15.4%	3.1%	4.21	4.16	+1.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	PHI	17	17	102	431	99	32	13	100%	6.0	23.0%	7.3%	15.6%	3.1%	4.17	4.14	+1.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	PHI	17	17	102	431	99	32	13	100%	6.0	23.0%	7.4%	15.6%	3.1%	4.19	4.19	+1.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	PHI	17	17	100	422	97	32	14	100%	5.9	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	3.2%	4.24	4.27	+0.9
2034	29	MLB CTX	PHI	16	16	97	410	93	32	14	100%	6.1	22.6%	7.8%	14.8%	3.4%	4.35	4.41	+0.7
2035	30	MLB CTX	PHI	15	15	91	384	86	31	14	100%	6.1	22.3%	8.1%	14.2%	3.6%	4.50	4.59	+0.5
2036	31	MLB CTX	PHI	14	14	85	359	78	30	14	100%	6.1	21.9%	8.5%	13.4%	3.8%	4.69	4.80	+0.2
2037	32	MLB CTX	PHI	13	13	79	334	71	30	14	100%	6.1	21.4%	8.8%	12.6%	4.1%	4.90	5.04	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	168	979	4134	925	322	137	100%	5.8	22.4%	7.8%	14.6%	3.3%	4.38	4.02	+10.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	189	66	28	100%	5.8	22.4%	7.8%	14.6%	3.3%	4.38	4.02	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		40	38	164	679	129	47	20	95%	4.1	19.0%	7.0%	12.1%	3.0%	4.34	4.03	+8.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	46	200	830	158	58	25	95%	4.1	19.0%	7.0%	12.1%	3.0%	4.34	4.03	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brad Pacheco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	19.8%	8.6%	3.0%	—	4.21	21.8%	14.0%	323	-0.32	—	—	—
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	88
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	87
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	86
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	86
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	85
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	84
Cody Stashak R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	21	SP	4.07	19.7%	7.5%	3.1%	.304	3.55	17.1%	9.8%	261	-0.52	1.99	467	84
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.32	19.2%	6.3%	244	+0.98	4.34	382	83
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	83
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	83
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	83
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	83
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.56	18.5%	9.7%	359	+0.93	3.63	429	82
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	82
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	82
Tommy Bergjans R 2015 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	17.2%	8.1%	1.3%	.327	4.36	15.7%	9.7%	268	+0.97	3.39	322	82
Drew Anderson R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	22	SP	3.37	21.1%	9.2%	1.6%	.295	4.71	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.34	2.95	547	82
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	82
Cooper Bradford R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP	4.99	18.0%	8.5%	4.2%	.393	4.99	17.6%	4.8%	106	+0.00	4.97	136	81
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.9	98	22.2%	7.8%	1.19	4.27
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88