John Gil
SS Rome Emperors| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | A/ROKATL | 370 | .250/.361/.330 | 3 | 40 | 52 | — | .199/.284/.254 |
| 2025 | 19 | AA/AATL | 487 | .254/.347/.367 | 7 | 54 | 63 | — | .217/.289/.306 |
| 2026 | 20 | AA/A+ATL | 592 | .262/.360/.392 | 14 | 60 | 74 | — | .224/.295/.337 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBATL | 1 | .223/.292/.327 | 0 | 0 | 76 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ43% MLB | 22 | MLBATL | 219 | .228/.298/.344 | 5 | 12 | 82 | 0.4 | |
| 2029PROJ61% MLB | 23 | MLBATL | 327 | .232/.303/.355 | 8 | 17 | 86 | 0.7 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Braves | — | 199 | 158 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 34 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 285 | 418 | 386 | 804 | 101 | 346 | 17 | 17 | 362 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 159 | 137 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 37 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 204 | 301 | 255 | 557 | 51 | 275 | 23 | 12 | 259 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Braves | — | 211 | 175 | 50 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 34 | 7 | 26 | 6 | 286 | 405 | 389 | 793 | 103 | 338 | 16 | 13 | 364 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | — | 25 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 174 | 240 | 174 | 414 | 250 | 28 | 8 | 201 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 462 | 399 | 103 | 25 | 1 | 7 | 57 | 64 | 2 | 50 | 14 | 258 | 353 | 378 | 731 | 120 | 291 | 14 | 12 | 331 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | — | 161 | 143 | 45 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 27 | 2 | 17 | 5 | 315 | 388 | 427 | 814 | 112 | 374 | 17 | 9 | 364 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Rome Emperors | — | 431 | 360 | 87 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 56 | 93 | 5 | 43 | 6 | 242 | 350 | 378 | 728 | 136 | 286 | 22 | 13 | 326 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Braves | — | 199 | 169 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 43 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 189 | 294 | 254 | 548 | 65 | 232 | 22 | 11 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 159 | 142 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 50 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 190 | 263 | 232 | 495 | 42 | 277 | 31 | 9 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Braves | — | 211 | 185 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 47 | 7 | 26 | 6 | 205 | 300 | 270 | 570 | 65 | 258 | 22 | 9 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 25 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 167 | 200 | 167 | 367 | 233 | 32 | 4 | 162 | -4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 462 | 415 | 91 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 88 | 2 | 50 | 14 | 219 | 294 | 313 | 607 | 94 | 262 | 19 | 9 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 161 | 147 | 42 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 2 | 17 | 5 | 286 | 344 | 395 | 738 | 109 | 346 | 20 | 7 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Rome Emperors | — | 431 | 383 | 77 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 35 | 122 | 5 | 43 | 6 | 201 | 277 | 316 | 593 | 115 | 248 | 28 | 8 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Braves | — | 199 | 169 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 43 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 189 | 294 | 254 | 548 | 65 | 240 | 22 | 11 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Braves | — | 199 | 158 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 34 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 285 | 418 | 386 | 804 | 101 | 346 | 17 | 17 | 362 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 370 | 327 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 97 | 7 | 40 | 8 | 199 | 284 | 257 | 541 | 58 | 273 | 26 | 9 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 370 | 312 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 47 | 71 | 7 | 40 | 8 | 250 | 361 | 330 | 691 | 80 | 311 | 19 | 13 | 319 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 487 | 439 | 95 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 43 | 97 | 2 | 54 | 14 | 216 | 289 | 305 | 594 | 89 | 265 | 20 | 9 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 487 | 422 | 107 | 25 | 1 | 7 | 59 | 71 | 2 | 54 | 14 | 254 | 347 | 367 | 714 | 114 | 289 | 15 | 12 | 324 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 592 | 530 | 119 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 46 | 155 | 7 | 60 | 11 | 225 | 295 | 336 | 631 | 111 | 286 | 26 | 8 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 592 | 503 | 132 | 15 | 4 | 14 | 71 | 120 | 7 | 60 | 11 | 262 | 360 | 392 | 752 | 129 | 313 | 20 | 12 | 336 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Braves | — | 199 | 172 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 43 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 186 | 294 | 250 | 544 | 64 | 232 | 22 | 11 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 370 | 328 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 97 | 7 | 40 | 8 | 198 | 284 | 256 | 540 | 58 | 266 | 26 | 9 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 487 | 439 | 95 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 43 | 97 | 2 | 54 | 14 | 216 | 289 | 305 | 594 | 89 | 261 | 20 | 9 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 592 | 534 | 119 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 46 | 155 | 7 | 60 | 11 | 223 | 295 | 333 | 628 | 110 | 275 | 26 | 8 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 370 | 328 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 97 | 7 | 40 | 8 | 198 | 284 | 256 | 540 | 58 | 266 | 26 | 9 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 487 | 439 | 95 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 43 | 97 | 2 | 54 | 14 | 216 | 289 | 305 | 594 | 89 | 261 | 20 | 9 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 592 | 534 | 119 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 46 | 155 | 7 | 60 | 11 | 223 | 295 | 333 | 628 | 110 | 275 | 26 | 8 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | ATL | 0% | 648 | 585 | 130 | 19 | 3 | 12 | 52 | 147 | 6 | 36 | 7 | 223 | 292 | 327 | 619 | 105 | 275 | 23 | 8 | 280 | 76 | -19 | +4 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB CTX | ATL | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 292 | 327 | 619 | 105 | 275 | 0 | 0 | 280 | 76 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | ATL | 43% | 504 | 454 | 104 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 41 | 111 | 4 | 28 | 5 | 228 | 298 | 344 | 642 | 116 | 276 | 22 | 8 | 290 | 82 | -11 | +4 | -1 | +5 | +11 | 0.9 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | ATL | 61% | 537 | 482 | 112 | 17 | 3 | 12 | 45 | 117 | 5 | 29 | 6 | 232 | 303 | 355 | 658 | 123 | 277 | 22 | 8 | 296 | 86 | -9 | +3 | -1 | +6 | +12 | 1.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | ATL | 66% | 578 | 519 | 121 | 18 | 3 | 14 | 49 | 124 | 5 | 29 | 6 | 234 | 306 | 363 | 669 | 129 | 279 | 21 | 8 | 300 | 89 | -7 | +3 | -0 | +6 | +13 | 1.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | ATL | 69% | 594 | 534 | 125 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 50 | 128 | 5 | 29 | 6 | 236 | 308 | 367 | 675 | 132 | 280 | 22 | 8 | 303 | 91 | -6 | +3 | +0 | +6 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | ATL | 70% | 590 | 530 | 125 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 50 | 127 | 5 | 27 | 5 | 236 | 309 | 369 | 678 | 133 | 280 | 22 | 8 | 304 | 92 | -6 | +3 | +0 | +6 | +13 | 1.7 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | ATL | 69% | 590 | 529 | 124 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 51 | 128 | 5 | 26 | 5 | 235 | 308 | 367 | 674 | 132 | 280 | 22 | 9 | 303 | 91 | -6 | +3 | +0 | +6 | +13 | 1.6 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | ATL | 68% | 582 | 522 | 122 | 19 | 3 | 14 | 50 | 127 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 233 | 306 | 362 | 668 | 129 | 279 | 22 | 9 | 300 | 89 | -7 | +2 | -1 | +6 | +13 | 1.3 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | ATL | 67% | 565 | 507 | 117 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 48 | 125 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 231 | 303 | 356 | 659 | 125 | 278 | 22 | 8 | 297 | 87 | -9 | +2 | -1 | +6 | +12 | 1.0 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | ATL | 66% | 552 | 496 | 113 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 47 | 124 | 4 | 15 | 3 | 228 | 300 | 349 | 649 | 121 | 276 | 22 | 9 | 292 | 84 | -11 | +2 | -2 | +6 | +12 | 0.7 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB MLE | ATL | 65% | 534 | 481 | 108 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 44 | 122 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 224 | 295 | 339 | 634 | 115 | 274 | 23 | 8 | 286 | 80 | -13 | +1 | -3 | +6 | +12 | 0.3 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB MLE | ATL | 70% | 511 | 460 | 101 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 119 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 219 | 289 | 328 | 617 | 108 | 270 | 23 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -15 | +0 | -3 | +5 | +11 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | ATL | 43% | 219 | 197 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 48 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 228 | 298 | 344 | 642 | 116 | 276 | 22 | 8 | 290 | 82 | -5 | +2 | -0 | +2 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | ATL | 61% | 327 | 294 | 69 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 27 | 71 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 232 | 303 | 355 | 658 | 123 | 277 | 22 | 8 | 296 | 86 | -5 | +2 | -0 | +4 | +7 | 0.7 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | ATL | 66% | 383 | 345 | 80 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 82 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 234 | 306 | 363 | 669 | 129 | 279 | 21 | 8 | 300 | 89 | -5 | +2 | -0 | +4 | +8 | 1.0 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | ATL | 69% | 408 | 366 | 86 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 88 | 4 | 20 | 4 | 236 | 308 | 367 | 675 | 132 | 280 | 22 | 9 | 303 | 91 | -4 | +2 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 1.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | ATL | 70% | 412 | 370 | 87 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 35 | 89 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 236 | 309 | 369 | 678 | 133 | 280 | 22 | 8 | 304 | 92 | -4 | +2 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 1.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | ATL | 69% | 407 | 365 | 85 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 88 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 235 | 308 | 367 | 674 | 132 | 280 | 22 | 9 | 303 | 91 | -4 | +2 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 1.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | ATL | 68% | 399 | 359 | 84 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 34 | 87 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 233 | 306 | 362 | 668 | 129 | 279 | 22 | 9 | 300 | 89 | -5 | +2 | -0 | +4 | +9 | 0.9 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | ATL | 67% | 377 | 339 | 79 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 84 | 3 | 12 | 3 | 231 | 303 | 356 | 659 | 125 | 278 | 22 | 8 | 297 | 87 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | ATL | 66% | 363 | 326 | 74 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 82 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 228 | 300 | 349 | 649 | 121 | 276 | 23 | 9 | 292 | 84 | -7 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | 0.5 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB CTX | ATL | 65% | 348 | 313 | 71 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 80 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 224 | 295 | 339 | 634 | 115 | 274 | 23 | 8 | 286 | 80 | -8 | +1 | -2 | +4 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB CTX | ATL | 70% | 360 | 325 | 71 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 84 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 219 | 289 | 328 | 617 | 108 | 270 | 23 | 8 | 279 | 75 | -11 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +8 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 4003 | 3599 | 832 | 126 | 19 | 95 | 338 | 883 | 34 | 154 | 33 | 231 | 303 | 356 | 659 | 125 | 279 | 22 | 8 | 296 | 81 | -64 | +18 | -7 | +43 | +87 | 7.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 134 | 20 | 3 | 15 | 55 | 143 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 229 | 302 | 351 | 653 | 122 | 277 | 22 | 8 | 296 | 81 | -10 | +3 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 1.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 7995 | 7168 | 1625 | 249 | 38 | 169 | 677 | 1792 | 72 | 425 | 88 | 227 | 300 | 343 | 643 | 116 | 277 | 22 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -106 | +29 | -11 | +68 | +138 | 12.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 583 | 132 | 20 | 3 | 14 | 55 | 146 | 6 | 35 | 7 | 226 | 300 | 343 | 643 | 117 | 276 | 22 | 8 | 288 | 81 | -11 | +3 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Rome Emperors · 431 PAwOBA .323 → .263 (−61)K% 21.6% → 28.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.58% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 28.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 8.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.975 | ×1.042 | 20.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.975 | ×1.042 | 3.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.37% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.975 | ×1.042 | 0.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 4.12% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .323 → .263; ISO .136 → .122; BABIP .286 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 161 PAwOBA .357 → .314 (−44)K% 16.8% → 20.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.77% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.050 | 6.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.24% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.965 | ×1.050 | 28.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.965 | ×1.050 | 3.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.965 | ×1.050 | 2.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 1.45% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.
Result: wOBA .357 → .314; ISO .112 → .098; BABIP .374 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAugusta GreenJackets · 462 PAwOBA .324 → .267 (−57)K% 13.9% → 19.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.85% | ÷0.984 | ×1.360 | — | — | 19.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.34% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 9.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.43% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.90% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.984 | ×1.045 | 19.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.46% | ÷0.977 | ×0.830 | ×0.984 | ×1.045 | 6.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.30% | ÷1.037 | ×0.910 | ×0.984 | ×1.045 | 0.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.09% | ÷1.281 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 1.36% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 107, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .324 → .267; ISO .120 → .092; BABIP .291 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAColumbus Clingstones · 25 PAwOBA .196 → .162 (−34)K% 28.0% → 33.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.00% | ÷1.011 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.050 | 5.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.038 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 23.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.951 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.108 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.934 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 108, 2B 90, 3B 122, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .196 → .162; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Braves · 211 PAwOBA .357 → .258 (−99)K% 16.1% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.11% | ÷1.037 | ×1.440 | — | — | 22.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.27% | ÷0.965 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 8.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.32% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 2.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.95% | ÷1.047 | ×0.820 | ×0.981 | ×1.022 | 21.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.38% | ÷1.022 | ×0.720 | ×0.981 | ×1.022 | 4.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.981 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.266 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 1.34% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 153, 1B 109, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 107, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .357 → .258; ISO .103 → .068; BABIP .338 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAugusta GreenJackets · 159 PAwOBA .256 → .226 (−31)K% 23.3% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.27% | ÷1.009 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.95% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 8.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.920 | ×1.025 | ×1.050 | 22.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.983 | ×0.830 | ×1.025 | ×1.050 | 4.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.025 | ×1.050 | 0.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.010 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 92, 2B 97, 3B 100, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .256 → .226; ISO .051 → .045; BABIP .275 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Braves · 199 PAwOBA .361 → .251 (−110)K% 17.1% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.09% | ÷0.961 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.58% | ÷1.048 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 11.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.51% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.61% | ÷1.004 | ×0.680 | ×0.985 | ×1.022 | 18.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.26% | ÷0.913 | ×0.600 | ×0.985 | ×1.022 | 4.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.141 | ×0.600 | ×0.985 | ×1.022 | 0.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.81% | ÷0.816 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.47% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 101, 2B 83, 3B 128, K 92, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .361 → .251; ISO .101 → .066; BABIP .346 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).