Gregory Sanchez

P ACL Rockies

Age 20 RHP 6'4" / 189 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#459ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL Colorado	2	2	3	10.80	3.70	12.5%	12.5%	—	K 12.5% · BB 12.5% · FIP 3.63
2026	19	ROKCOL	1	0	1	0.00	6.10	0.0%	25.0%	—	K 0.0% · BB 25.0% · FIP 6.27
2027PROJ	20	MLBCOL	—	—	0	4.60	4.60	23.8%	11.9%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBCOL	7	7	41	4.85	4.87	22.7%	11.6%	0.4
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBCOL	14	14	78	4.70	4.62	23.7%	10.5%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsRayner Urbaez (age 20) · Marco Raya (age 20) · Levi Wells (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%23.8%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%12.0%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	13	13	33	168	42	19	0	100%	2.6	17.0%	14.1%	2.9%	0.0%	5.40	3.46	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	13	13	33	168	42	19	0	100%	2.6	17.0%	14.1%	2.9%	0.0%	5.40	3.46	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	13	13	33	168	42	19	0	100%	2.6	25.0%	11.3%	13.7%	0.0%	5.40	2.29	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	2	2	3	16	2	2	0	100%	1.7	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.0%	10.80	3.63	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	2	2	3	16	2	2	0	100%	1.7	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.0%	10.80	3.63	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	2	2	3	16	2	2	0	100%	1.7	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	0.0%	10.80	3.70	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	25.0%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.27	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	25.0%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.27	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	25.0%	-25.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.8%	11.9%	12.0%	3.0%	4.60	4.60	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	83	351	80	41	10	100%	5.5	22.7%	11.6%	11.1%	2.9%	4.61	4.63	+0.7
2029	22	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	108	454	108	48	13	100%	5.4	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	2.9%	4.46	4.38	+1.3
2030	23	MLB MLE	COL	23	23	124	524	128	52	15	100%	5.4	24.4%	9.9%	14.5%	2.8%	4.32	4.22	+1.7
2031	24	MLB MLE	COL	22	22	125	528	131	50	15	100%	5.7	24.9%	9.5%	15.4%	2.8%	4.20	4.12	+1.9
2032	25	MLB MLE	COL	21	21	123	520	131	48	14	100%	5.9	25.2%	9.3%	15.9%	2.8%	4.11	4.06	+2.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	COL	21	21	124	522	133	48	15	100%	5.9	25.4%	9.3%	16.2%	2.8%	4.07	4.04	+2.0
2034	27	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	121	510	130	48	14	100%	6.0	25.4%	9.3%	16.1%	2.8%	4.07	4.07	+1.9
2035	28	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	116	488	123	46	14	100%	6.1	25.3%	9.5%	15.8%	2.9%	4.12	4.16	+1.7
2036	29	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	108	454	114	44	14	100%	6.0	25.1%	9.7%	15.4%	3.1%	4.22	4.29	+1.4
2037	30	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	98	413	102	41	14	100%	6.1	24.7%	10.0%	14.7%	3.3%	4.37	4.47	+1.1
2038	31	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	88	371	90	38	13	100%	5.9	24.3%	10.4%	13.9%	3.5%	4.55	4.67	+0.7
2039	32	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	78	329	79	35	12	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.8%	13.1%	3.8%	4.76	4.89	+0.5
2040	33	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	69	290	68	33	12	100%	6.3	23.4%	11.2%	12.2%	4.0%	4.99	5.14	+0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	41	173	39	20	6	100%	5.9	22.7%	11.6%	11.1%	3.4%	4.85	4.87	+0.4
2029	22	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	78	329	78	35	11	100%	5.6	23.7%	10.5%	13.2%	3.3%	4.70	4.62	+0.9
2030	23	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	105	443	108	44	14	100%	5.5	24.4%	9.9%	14.5%	3.3%	4.56	4.46	+1.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	COL	20	20	111	469	117	44	15	100%	5.5	24.9%	9.5%	15.4%	3.2%	4.43	4.35	+1.7
2032	25	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	113	477	120	44	15	100%	5.9	25.2%	9.3%	15.9%	3.2%	4.34	4.29	+1.8
2033	26	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	115	486	124	45	16	100%	6.1	25.4%	9.3%	16.2%	3.2%	4.30	4.27	+1.9
2034	27	MLB CTX	COL	19	19	115	486	124	45	16	100%	6.1	25.4%	9.3%	16.1%	3.3%	4.31	4.31	+1.8
2035	28	MLB CTX	COL	18	18	110	464	118	44	16	100%	6.1	25.3%	9.5%	15.8%	3.4%	4.37	4.41	+1.6
2036	29	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	102	431	108	42	15	100%	6.0	25.1%	9.7%	15.4%	3.6%	4.48	4.55	+1.3
2037	30	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	93	393	97	39	15	100%	5.8	24.7%	10.0%	14.7%	3.8%	4.65	4.75	+1.0
2038	31	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	83	350	85	36	14	100%	5.9	24.3%	10.4%	13.9%	4.0%	4.84	4.96	+0.7
2039	32	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	74	312	75	34	14	100%	6.2	23.9%	10.8%	13.1%	4.3%	5.07	5.20	+0.4
2040	33	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	65	274	64	31	13	100%	5.9	23.4%	11.2%	12.2%	4.7%	5.33	5.48	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		209	209	1206	5093	1257	505	180	100%	5.8	24.7%	9.9%	14.8%	3.5%	4.57	4.21	+17.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	208	84	30	100%	5.8	24.7%	9.9%	14.8%	3.5%	4.57	4.21	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		16	15	38	188	31	27	0	94%	2.4	16.3%	14.2%	2.0%	0.0%	5.73	3.53	+17.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	80	200	998	162	142	0	94%	2.4	16.3%	14.2%	2.0%	0.0%	5.73	3.53	+2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 ROKDSL Colorado · 33 IPFIP 2.42 → 3.46 (+1.03)K% 25.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.680	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.31%	—	×1.250	14.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.038	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 2.42 → 3.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gregory Sanchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	4.38	23.7%	13.2%	315	-0.22	—	—	—
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	84
Marco Raya R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP	3.99	19.9%	9.6%	2.5%	.238	4.75	20.8%	10.0%	256	+0.76	3.99	383	82
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	80
Jonathan Stiever R 2018 · 4.39 FIP	21	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.308	4.25	20.7%	14.2%	219	-0.14	4.23	247	79
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	78
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	910	78
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.88	20.3%	9.2%	134	+0.19	2.44	223	77
Michael Grove R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP	4.39	24.3%	9.5%	3.9%	.409	5.45	21.8%	11.5%	176	+1.06	3.01	396	77
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	77
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	77
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	76
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.6%	11.6%	249	-0.34	4.54	318	75
Adrian Navas R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	19	SP	3.67	18.5%	11.9%	1.2%	.272	5.27	16.8%	7.1%	145	+1.60	3.67	204	75
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.86	20.8%	11.3%	236	-0.47	3.16	524	75
Darren Bowen R 2023 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	19.0%	12.8%	1.3%	.236	5.41	15.1%	4.2%	223	+1.59	3.82	278	74
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	74
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.93	25.8%	12.5%	199	-0.41	3.66	273	73
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	73
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	73
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.2	102	24.6%	10.1%	1.18	4.34
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Diego Segui ('62-'77, 10 WAR*)	9.0	121	22.2%*	9.9%*	1.19*	4.40*
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Skip Lockwood ('69-'80, 11 WAR*)	6.2	103	22.5%*	9.1%*	1.06*	4.28*
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Francisco Liriano ('19)	9.1	130	23.3%	10.5%	0.91	4.15