Nate Payne — OGILVIE

Nate Payne P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 20 LHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 2.0 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION111 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120128vR 136

ERA5.44

FIP5.44

K%23.1%

BB%18.4%

K-BB%4.7%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 118 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$49M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF—55

CTRL—40

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$8M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$8M	+$8M
2033	Arb-1	$6M	+1.5	$7M	+$4M
2034	Arb-2	$8M	+1.3	$6M	+$2M
2035	Arb-3	$10M	+1.0	$4M	+$0.0M
Totals		$27M		$41M	+$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	56	228	73	37	2	100%	3.3	22.2%	19.9%	2.4%	1.2%	3.20	4.41	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	56	228	73	37	2	100%	3.3	22.2%	19.9%	2.4%	1.2%	3.20	4.41	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	56	228	73	37	2	100%	3.3	32.0%	16.2%	15.8%	0.9%	3.20	2.94	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	23	22	111	465	147	47	15	96%	4.8	24.1%	11.7%	12.5%	4.0%	3.49	4.76	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	23	22	111	465	147	47	15	96%	4.8	24.1%	11.7%	12.5%	4.0%	3.49	4.76	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	MIA	4	3	18	76	32	7	1	75%	4.5	42.1%	9.2%	32.9%	1.3%	2.50	1.43	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	MIA	19	19	93	389	115	40	14	100%	4.9	29.6%	10.3%	19.3%	3.6%	3.68	3.88	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	MIA	1	1	7	31	7	6	1	100%	7.3	23.1%	18.4%	4.7%	2.9%	5.44	5.44	-0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	118	496	154	53	16	—	—	31.1%	10.6%	20.5%	3.2%	3.61	4.80	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	31	31	148	625	146	97	18	100%	4.8	23.4%	15.5%	7.9%	2.8%	5.14	5.02	-0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	33	33	175	739	179	99	21	100%	5.3	24.2%	13.4%	10.9%	2.8%	4.83	4.65	+0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	33	33	180	760	189	91	21	100%	5.5	24.9%	12.0%	12.9%	2.7%	4.57	4.40	+1.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	32	32	180	760	193	84	21	100%	5.6	25.4%	11.0%	14.3%	2.7%	4.37	4.23	+1.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	31	31	180	760	196	79	21	100%	5.8	25.7%	10.4%	15.3%	2.7%	4.22	4.12	+1.7
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	180	760	197	79	21	100%	6.0	25.9%	10.4%	15.6%	2.7%	4.14	4.09	+1.7
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	177	749	194	78	21	100%	5.9	25.9%	10.5%	15.5%	2.8%	4.13	4.13	+1.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	172	726	188	77	21	100%	5.9	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	2.9%	4.18	4.21	+1.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIA	27	27	164	694	177	75	21	100%	6.1	25.6%	10.8%	14.7%	3.0%	4.28	4.34	+1.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIA	26	26	154	652	164	73	21	100%	5.9	25.2%	11.2%	14.1%	3.2%	4.43	4.52	+0.7
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	144	608	151	70	21	100%	6.0	24.8%	11.5%	13.3%	3.4%	4.61	4.72	+0.3
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	133	562	137	67	21	100%	6.1	24.4%	11.9%	12.5%	3.7%	4.81	4.95	-0.1
2039	33	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	122	516	123	64	20	100%	6.1	23.9%	12.3%	11.5%	4.0%	5.04	5.20	-0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	73	308	72	48	8	100%	4.9	23.4%	15.5%	7.9%	2.7%	5.06	4.94	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	25	25	128	540	131	72	14	100%	5.1	24.2%	13.4%	10.9%	2.6%	4.75	4.57	+0.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	152	642	160	77	17	100%	5.4	24.9%	12.0%	12.9%	2.6%	4.49	4.32	+0.9
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	29	29	160	676	171	75	17	100%	5.5	25.4%	11.0%	14.3%	2.6%	4.30	4.16	+1.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	165	697	179	73	18	100%	5.9	25.7%	10.4%	15.3%	2.6%	4.15	4.05	+1.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	168	709	184	74	18	100%	6.0	25.9%	10.4%	15.6%	2.6%	4.07	4.02	+1.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	168	709	184	74	19	100%	6.0	25.9%	10.5%	15.5%	2.6%	4.05	4.05	+1.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	163	688	178	73	19	100%	6.0	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	2.7%	4.10	4.13	+1.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	156	659	168	71	19	100%	6.0	25.6%	10.8%	14.7%	2.9%	4.20	4.26	+1.0
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	147	621	157	69	19	100%	6.1	25.2%	11.2%	14.1%	3.0%	4.34	4.43	+0.7
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIA	23	23	137	578	144	67	19	100%	6.0	24.8%	11.5%	13.3%	3.3%	4.52	4.63	+0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	127	536	131	64	19	100%	6.0	24.4%	11.9%	12.5%	3.5%	4.71	4.85	-0.1
2039	33	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	116	490	117	60	18	100%	6.1	23.9%	12.3%	11.5%	3.8%	4.93	5.09	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		322	322	1860	7855	1976	897	224	100%	5.8	25.2%	11.4%	13.7%	2.9%	4.38	3.99	+20.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	212	96	24	100%	5.8	25.2%	11.4%	13.7%	2.9%	4.38	3.99	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		40	39	167	693	163	100	22	98%	4.2	23.5%	14.4%	9.2%	3.1%	3.39	4.64	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	47	200	828	195	119	26	98%	4.2	23.5%	14.4%	9.2%	3.1%	3.39	4.64	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nate Payne (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.44	23.1%	18.4%	2.9%	—	4.67	24.2%	10.7%	503	-0.77	—	—	—
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	85
Doug Nikhazy L 2022 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	21.8%	19.9%	2.2%	.270	4.78	20.6%	8.1%	312	-0.21	4.16	461	85
Frank Mozzicato L 2023 · 5.42 FIP	20	SP	5.42	23.6%	18.9%	3.5%	.284	5.95	17.9%	-1.5%	266	+0.53	5.00	428	81
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	80
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	80
Jay Groome L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	18	SP	4.56	21.6%	14.8%	2.6%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	420	79
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	77
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	77
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	76
Francisco Morao L 2023 · 4.30 FIP	17	SP	4.30	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.303	4.59	18.4%	1.5%	115	+0.29	4.00	154	76
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	76
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	76
Max Fried L 2016 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.76	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.09	2.56	1,435	76
Roberto Medina L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	18	SP	4.85	21.6%	21.7%	1.5%	.313	5.67	16.4%	-2.1%	73	+0.82	3.87	109	74
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	74
Rylan Kaufman L 2021 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP	4.60	19.3%	12.1%	2.9%	.305	4.75	18.9%	4.5%	131	+0.15	4.01	212	74
Helcris Olivárez L 2021 · 4.93 FIP	20	SP	4.93	19.0%	17.3%	2.3%	.300	5.49	21.9%	-8.9%	38	+0.56	2.92	298	73
Jacob Heatherly L 2018 · 6.27 FIP	20	SP	6.27	18.1%	27.2%	2.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	192	73
Naswell Paulino L 2021 · 4.82 FIP	21	SP	4.82	18.9%	15.8%	2.4%	.265	5.21	16.9%	4.4%	167	+0.39	3.72	320	73
Deyer Zapata L 2022 · 4.25 FIP	18	SP	4.25	18.8%	14.3%	1.7%	.309	5.18	17.5%	4.0%	50	+0.93	3.77	130	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11.0	157	25.0%	11.9%	1.15	4.53
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98