Nate Payne
P
Jupiter Hammerheads
+0.3
WAR
Age 20
LHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.9 · 2031
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.1%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%11.9%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2031
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 17 | 17 | 56 | 228 | 73 | 37 | 2 | 22.2% | 19.9% | 1.3% | 3.20 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | 2 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 14 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIA | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 55 | 27 | 7 | 23.2% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 20 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 64 | 272 | 69 | 30 | 7 | 25.4% | 11.0% | 2.5% | 4.25 | 3.97 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIA | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 59 | 26 | 7 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 64 | 25 | 7 | 24.5% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.16 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 68 | 25 | 7 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.01 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 66 | 279 | 71 | 24 | 8 | 25.7% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 3.92 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 73 | 24 | 8 | 26.0% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.86 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 74 | 24 | 8 | 26.2% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 3.83 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 73 | 24 | 8 | 26.2% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 3.85 | 3.84 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 72 | 24 | 8 | 26.2% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.87 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 70 | 23 | 8 | 26.1% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 3.92 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 68 | 23 | 7 | 25.9% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 3.94 | 3.98 | +0.7 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 65 | 22 | 7 | 25.6% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 4.05 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 61 | 22 | 7 | 25.4% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 58 | 21 | 7 | 25.0% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.18 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 19 | 18 | 64 | 262 | 65 | 48 | 3 | 24.7% | 18.4% | 1.1% | 3.08 | 3.98 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 56 | 200 | 815 | 202 | 149 | 9 | 24.7% | 18.4% | 1.1% | 3.08 | 3.98 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nate Payne (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 23.2% | 11.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.17 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 186 | -0.36 | — | — | — |
| Alex Ayala Jr. L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.21 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.98 | 13.6% | -3.1% | 71 | +1.77 | 4.21 | 128 | 89 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 88 |
| Yereny Teus L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.59 | 23.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .276 | 4.59 | 18.9% | 0.7% | 34 | +1.00 | 3.49 | 131 | 88 |
| Sonny Vargas L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.45 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 165 | 88 |
| Oddanier Mosqueda L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.74 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 2.1% | .308 | 4.12 | 25.7% | 14.1% | 106 | +0.38 | 3.05 | 433 | 86 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 86 |
| Jaylen Nowlin L 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.45 | 26.8% | 13.3% | 1.7% | .352 | 4.99 | 19.1% | 6.1% | 254 | +1.54 | 3.45 | 325 | 84 |
| Evan Shawver L 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.28 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 4.0% | 152 | +0.49 | 4.09 | 219 | 83 |
| Chase Watkins L 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.74 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 1.6% | .346 | 4.33 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.59 | 3.29 | 213 | 83 |
| Wesley Moore L 2029 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.66 | 25.9% | 13.2% | 2.0% | .254 | 4.19 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 58 | +0.53 | 3.66 | 111 | 83 |
| Taylor Hearn L 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.97 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.2% | .347 | 4.00 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 236 | +0.03 | 3.74 | 572 | 82 |
| Miguel Pozo L 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.36 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .312 | 4.96 | 16.5% | -5.7% | 24 | +1.60 | 3.36 | 110 | 82 |
| Dante Biasi L 2029 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.7% | .251 | 5.64 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +0.73 | 4.91 | 224 | 82 |
| Andrew Walling L 2029 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.20 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .272 | 3.66 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 95 | -0.54 | 3.14 | 151 | 82 |
| Benony Robles L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.63 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .262 | 5.08 | 19.2% | 4.5% | 135 | +1.45 | 3.63 | 271 | 82 |
| Abdallah Aris L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.63 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 109 | 81 |
| Shane McCain L 2029 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.31 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .324 | 4.65 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.34 | 4.31 | 201 | 81 |
| Chazz Martinez L 2029 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.77 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 1.7% | .361 | 3.47 | 20.6% | 7.7% | 125 | -0.30 | 3.15 | 189 | 80 |
| Bryan Sammons L 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.58 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.96 | 18.4% | 8.4% | 228 | +0.38 | 3.40 | 665 | 80 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2029 · 3.43 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.43 | 22.5% | 12.6% | 1.2% | .318 | 4.79 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 91 | +1.36 | 3.43 | 152 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.8 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $7M | $21M | +$14M | ||