Nate Payne
P
Beloit Sky Carp
Age 20
LHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.9 · 2031
2026 ROS PROJECTION75 act + 69 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105114vR 123
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
K%23.1%
BB%11.6%
K-BB%11.4%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 56 | 228 | 73 | 37 | 2 | 100% | 3.3 | 22.2% | 19.9% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 3.20 | 4.44 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 17 | 56 | 228 | 73 | 37 | 2 | 100% | 3.3 | 32.0% | 16.2% | 15.8% | 0.9% | 3.20 | 2.94 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 15 | 14 | 75 | 304 | 102 | 25 | 12 | 93% | 5.0 | 25.5% | 9.5% | 16.0% | 5.0% | 3.62 | 4.87 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 67 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.1% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.1% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.55 | 4.55 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 144 | 596 | 169 | 59 | 20 | — | — | 28.4% | 9.9% | 18.5% | 3.4% | 4.08 | 4.73 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 20 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.1% | 11.6% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.55 | 4.16 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 26 | 125 | 526 | 123 | 56 | 15 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.4% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.39 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | MIA | 33 | 33 | 167 | 704 | 171 | 68 | 20 | 100% | 5.1 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.18 | +2.4 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 33 | 33 | 175 | 739 | 184 | 67 | 20 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.9% | 9.0% | 15.8% | 2.7% | 4.14 | 4.03 | +2.8 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 32 | 32 | 179 | 757 | 192 | 66 | 21 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.4% | 8.7% | 16.7% | 2.7% | 4.02 | 3.93 | +3.1 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 31 | 31 | 180 | 760 | 196 | 65 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.7% | 8.5% | 17.2% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 3.87 | +3.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 30 | 30 | 180 | 760 | 197 | 64 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.9% | 8.5% | 17.5% | 2.7% | 3.88 | 3.85 | +3.3 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 30 | 30 | 177 | 749 | 194 | 64 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.9% | 8.6% | 17.4% | 2.8% | 3.88 | 3.89 | +3.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 29 | 29 | 172 | 726 | 188 | 63 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.8% | 8.7% | 17.1% | 2.9% | 3.94 | 3.97 | +2.9 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 27 | 27 | 164 | 694 | 177 | 62 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.6% | 8.9% | 16.7% | 3.0% | 4.04 | 4.10 | +2.5 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 26 | 154 | 652 | 164 | 60 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.2% | 9.2% | 16.0% | 3.2% | 4.18 | 4.28 | +2.0 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 151 | 58 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.8% | 9.6% | 15.2% | 3.4% | 4.36 | 4.48 | +1.5 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 137 | 56 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.4% | 10.0% | 14.4% | 3.7% | 4.57 | 4.71 | +1.1 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 20 | 20 | 122 | 516 | 123 | 54 | 20 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.9% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 4.0% | 4.80 | 4.96 | +0.6 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 62 | 262 | 61 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.4% | 10.5% | 12.9% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 24 | 122 | 515 | 125 | 50 | 14 | 100% | 5.1 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.14 | +1.8 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | MIA | 28 | 28 | 148 | 625 | 155 | 56 | 17 | 100% | 5.3 | 24.9% | 9.0% | 15.8% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 3.99 | +2.4 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 29 | 29 | 160 | 676 | 171 | 59 | 18 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.4% | 8.7% | 16.7% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 3.89 | +2.8 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 28 | 28 | 165 | 697 | 179 | 59 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.7% | 8.5% | 17.2% | 2.6% | 3.89 | 3.83 | +3.0 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 184 | 60 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.9% | 8.5% | 17.5% | 2.6% | 3.84 | 3.81 | +3.1 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 184 | 61 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.9% | 8.6% | 17.4% | 2.7% | 3.84 | 3.85 | +3.0 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 27 | 27 | 163 | 688 | 178 | 60 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.8% | 8.7% | 17.1% | 2.8% | 3.90 | 3.93 | +2.8 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 26 | 156 | 659 | 168 | 59 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.6% | 8.9% | 16.7% | 2.9% | 3.99 | 4.05 | +2.5 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 24 | 24 | 147 | 621 | 157 | 57 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.2% | 9.2% | 16.0% | 3.1% | 4.13 | 4.23 | +2.0 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 144 | 55 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.8% | 9.6% | 15.2% | 3.3% | 4.31 | 4.43 | +1.6 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 131 | 54 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.4% | 10.0% | 14.4% | 3.6% | 4.51 | 4.65 | +1.1 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 19 | 19 | 116 | 490 | 117 | 51 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.9% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 3.9% | 4.74 | 4.90 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 318 | 318 | 1838 | 7762 | 1954 | 708 | 227 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.2% | 9.1% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 3.73 | +35.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 213 | 77 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 25.2% | 9.1% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 3.73 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 32 | 31 | 131 | 532 | 128 | 74 | 18 | 97% | 4.1 | 24.1% | 14.0% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 3.44 | 4.69 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 47 | 200 | 812 | 196 | 113 | 27 | 97% | 4.1 | 24.1% | 14.0% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 3.44 | 4.69 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nate Payne (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 23.1% | 11.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.18 | 24.3% | 14.6% | 466 | -0.41 | — | — | — |
| Mason Molina L 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.28 | 22.7% | 12.6% | 2.7% | .276 | 3.56 | 23.3% | 13.3% | 69 | -0.72 | 3.56 | 165 | 89 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2028 · 3.86 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.86 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.28 | 3.86 | 189 | 85 |
| David Shields L 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.45 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 2.0% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 148 | 85 |
| Anthony Veneziano L 2029 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.24 | 24.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | .298 | 5.19 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 358 | +0.95 | 4.24 | 501 | 83 |
| Keegan Akin L 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.30 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.26 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 276 | -0.04 | 2.54 | 743 | 83 |
| Johnny King L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.22 | 23.7% | 15.4% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 129 | 83 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.56 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.1% | .294 | 3.49 | 24.7% | 11.4% | 80 | -0.07 | 3.49 | 198 | 82 |
| Evan Shawver L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.04 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.2% | .289 | 4.64 | 18.0% | 4.0% | 152 | +0.60 | 4.01 | 258 | 82 |
| Greg Farone L 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.26 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 2.8% | .301 | 6.14 | 17.6% | 4.8% | 71 | +1.88 | 4.26 | 176 | 82 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.35 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 2.4% | .305 | 4.69 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.34 | 4.01 | 212 | 82 |
| Yereny Teus L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.59 | 23.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .276 | 3.80 | 23.0% | 7.5% | 68 | +0.21 | 2.98 | 166 | 82 |
| Samy Natera Jr. L 2029 · 5.17 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.17 | 22.9% | 13.3% | 4.2% | .294 | 3.68 | 29.8% | 14.8% | 108 | -1.49 | 1.94 | 191 | 82 |
| Joe Whitman L 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.90 | 18.6% | 9.9% | 2.0% | .303 | 3.53 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 199 | -0.37 | 3.35 | 302 | 82 |
| Adam Seminaris L 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.90 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .357 | 3.75 | 18.2% | 9.3% | 230 | -0.15 | 3.11 | 524 | 81 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2029 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 81 |
| John Beller L 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.59 | 19.7% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.22 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 90 | -0.37 | 4.00 | 170 | 81 |
| Brandon Knarr L 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.83 | 22.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.21 | 19.9% | 10.8% | 158 | -0.62 | 4.15 | 256 | 81 |
| Mitchell Parker L 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.03 | 24.0% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .354 | 3.90 | 21.4% | 9.8% | 375 | -0.13 | 3.73 | 694 | 81 |
| Jordan Wicks L 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.89 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .329 | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.8% | 278 | +0.18 | 2.93 | 431 | 80 |
| Dylan Carmouche L 2028 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.37 | 19.0% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .332 | 4.42 | 17.4% | 9.6% | 70 | +0.05 | 4.37 | 192 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 14 | 154 | 25.0% | 9.3% | 1.16 | 4.18 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Alex Wood ('24) | 9 | 111 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 0.96 | 3.98 |