Nate Payne

P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 21 LHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.3 · 2032

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#256ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	MIX2 levels	17	17	56	3.20	2.94	32.0%	16.2%	—	K 22.2% · BB 19.9% · FIP 4.41
2026	20	MIX2 levels	23	22	111	3.49	3.48	31.6%	10.1%	—	K 24.1% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.76
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIA	1	1	1	4.96	4.96	23.8%	13.4%	0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIA	13	13	65	4.65	4.54	24.5%	11.6%	0.6
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIA	18	18	96	4.44	4.32	25.0%	10.5%	1.1

Next 3 projected WAR 1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$3M+2

Career WAR0.2 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 16, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 75%

CompsKeegan Akin (age 22) · Brandon Knarr (age 23) · Dylan Carmouche (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

K%23.8%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP131

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$69M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$7M	+$7M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+1.2	$6M	+$4M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2036	Arb-3	$4M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.1M
Totals		$13M		$35M	+$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	56	228	73	37	2	100%	3.3	22.2%	19.9%	2.4%	1.2%	3.20	4.41	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	17	56	228	73	37	2	100%	3.3	22.2%	19.9%	2.4%	1.2%	3.20	4.41	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	17	56	228	73	37	2	100%	3.3	32.0%	16.2%	15.8%	0.9%	3.20	2.94	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	111	465	147	47	15	96%	4.8	24.1%	11.7%	12.5%	4.0%	3.49	4.76	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	111	465	147	47	15	96%	4.8	24.1%	11.7%	12.5%	4.0%	3.49	4.76	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	111	465	147	47	15	96%	4.8	31.6%	10.1%	21.5%	3.2%	3.49	3.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIA	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	23.8%	13.4%	10.4%	3.3%	4.96	4.96	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	26	26	131	553	135	64	18	100%	5.0	24.5%	11.6%	12.8%	3.2%	4.74	4.63	+1.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	131	553	138	58	17	100%	5.5	25.0%	10.5%	14.5%	3.1%	4.53	4.41	+1.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	23	23	131	553	141	54	17	100%	5.7	25.4%	9.8%	15.6%	3.1%	4.37	4.27	+1.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	107	453	117	43	14	100%	6.0	25.7%	9.4%	16.3%	3.1%	4.26	4.18	+1.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	108	454	118	43	14	100%	6.0	25.9%	9.4%	16.6%	3.1%	4.20	4.16	+1.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	105	444	115	42	14	100%	5.8	25.9%	9.4%	16.5%	3.1%	4.20	4.20	+1.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	101	425	110	41	14	100%	5.9	25.8%	9.6%	16.2%	3.2%	4.25	4.28	+1.3
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	94	396	101	39	13	100%	5.9	25.6%	9.8%	15.7%	3.4%	4.35	4.41	+1.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	85	359	91	36	13	100%	6.1	25.2%	10.1%	15.1%	3.6%	4.50	4.59	+0.8
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	76	320	80	34	12	100%	5.8	24.8%	10.5%	14.3%	3.8%	4.68	4.79	+0.5
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	67	282	69	31	11	100%	6.1	24.4%	10.9%	13.5%	4.0%	4.88	5.02	+0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	65	274	67	32	8	100%	5.0	24.5%	11.6%	12.8%	3.0%	4.65	4.54	+0.6
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	96	405	101	43	12	100%	5.3	25.0%	10.5%	14.5%	3.0%	4.44	4.32	+1.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	109	460	117	45	13	100%	5.7	25.4%	9.8%	15.6%	2.9%	4.29	4.19	+1.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	95	401	103	38	12	100%	5.9	25.7%	9.4%	16.3%	2.9%	4.18	4.10	+1.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	98	414	107	39	12	100%	6.1	25.9%	9.4%	16.6%	2.9%	4.12	4.08	+1.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	98	414	107	39	12	100%	6.1	25.9%	9.4%	16.5%	3.0%	4.11	4.11	+1.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	94	397	102	38	12	100%	5.9	25.8%	9.6%	16.2%	3.1%	4.16	4.19	+1.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIA	15	15	89	376	96	37	12	100%	5.9	25.6%	9.8%	15.7%	3.2%	4.26	4.32	+1.0
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIA	14	14	81	342	86	35	12	100%	5.8	25.2%	10.1%	15.1%	3.4%	4.40	4.49	+0.8
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	72	304	75	32	11	100%	6.0	24.8%	10.5%	14.3%	3.6%	4.58	4.69	+0.5
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	64	270	66	29	10	100%	5.8	24.4%	10.9%	13.5%	3.8%	4.77	4.91	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		165	165	959	4050	1028	406	127	100%	5.8	25.4%	10.0%	15.4%	3.1%	4.33	3.94	+16.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	214	85	26	100%	5.8	25.4%	10.0%	15.4%	3.1%	4.33	3.94	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		40	39	167	693	163	100	22	98%	4.2	23.5%	14.4%	9.2%	3.1%	3.39	4.64	+13.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	47	200	828	195	119	26	98%	4.2	23.5%	14.4%	9.2%	3.1%	3.39	4.64	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 93 IPFIP 3.88 → 5.14 (+1.26)K% 29.6% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.56%	—	×0.770	22.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.28%	—	×1.150	11.83%
HR / BF /BF	3.60%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.50%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.88 → 5.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AJupiter Hammerheads · 18 IPFIP 1.43 → 2.78 (+1.35)K% 42.1% → 31.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.11%	—	×0.740	31.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.21%	—	×1.180	10.87%
HR / BF /BF	1.32%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.71%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.43 → 2.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Marlins · 40 IPFIP 2.37 → 3.91 (+1.54)K% 33.7% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.74%	—	×0.680	22.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.11%	—	×1.250	17.64%
HR / BF /BF	0.61%	÷0.910	×1.400	0.94%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.37 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AJupiter Hammerheads · 17 IPFIP 4.33 → 5.65 (+1.32)K% 27.7% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.69%	—	×0.740	20.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.54%	—	×1.180	25.42%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷1.035	×1.300	1.93%

Result: FIP 4.33 → 5.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nate Payne (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.44	25.0%	14.3%	393	-0.52	—	—	—
Keegan Akin L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP	4.55	20.2%	12.5%	2.9%	.303	4.23	22.2%	10.7%	276	-0.32	2.62	743	84
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	83
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	83
Dalton Rogers L 2023 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP	4.31	25.3%	16.7%	2.2%	.327	4.58	19.6%	4.1%	268	+0.27	3.47	364	81
Max Fried L 2016 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP	4.85	19.5%	13.0%	3.2%	.301	3.76	22.6%	13.4%	378	-1.09	2.51	1,448	81
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.94	18.6%	8.6%	358	+0.67	4.18	539	81
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.26	30.7%	17.2%	124	-1.88	1.94	208	81
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.85	18.0%	10.5%	367	-0.33	3.77	480	80
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.19	16.8%	8.7%	321	-0.31	4.12	428	80
Ken Waldichuk L 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	28.7%	12.5%	3.3%	.279	4.29	24.1%	14.1%	271	+0.23	3.51	432	79
Travis Ott L 2017 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	20.9%	12.3%	1.7%	.253	3.67	24.7%	14.4%	70	-0.15	3.67	188	79
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.17	24.8%	17.3%	458	-0.74	2.97	580	79
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	78
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	78
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	78
Cade Povich L 2022 · 4.08 FIP	22	SP	4.08	23.9%	9.2%	3.3%	.293	4.03	23.6%	14.1%	414	-0.05	3.80	626	78
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	212	78
Damon Jones L 2018 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	18.8%	12.2%	1.9%	.321	3.84	25.8%	10.9%	156	-0.28	3.71	269	77
Mitchell Parker L 2021 · 4.08 FIP	21	SP	4.08	24.0%	9.8%	3.2%	.354	3.94	21.4%	9.9%	375	-0.14	3.73	694	77
Connor O'Halloran L 2024 · 5.09 FIP	21	SP	5.09	17.2%	12.3%	3.4%	.287	6.36	14.3%	-6.0%	32	+1.27	5.09	136	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.3	106	25.2%	10.4%	1.27	4.49
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Tom Griffin ('69-'82, 1 WAR*)	7.5	107	22.6%*	11.4%*	1.21*	4.93*
Bobby Bolin ('61-'73, 12 WAR*)	7.9	121	22.7%*	9.6%*	1.33*	4.11*
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11