CJ Gray

P ACL Angels

Age 20 RHP ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#452ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	19	MIX2 levels	11	8	34	5.24	3.07	28.1%	13.1%	—	K 21.9% · BB 13.8% · FIP 3.65
2027PROJ	20	MLBLAA	—	—	0	4.77	4.77	24.2%	13.6%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	21	MLBLAA	6	6	29	4.77	4.78	23.1%	12.9%	0.2
2029PROJ57% MLB	22	MLBLAA	12	12	61	4.59	4.49	24.0%	11.5%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 5.6, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 90%

CompsJake Lyons (age 22) · Michael Forret (age 20) · Brandon Young (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%24.2%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%10.6%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	8	34	160	45	21	2	73%	3.1	21.9%	13.8%	8.1%	1.2%	5.24	3.65	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	8	34	160	45	21	2	73%	3.1	21.9%	13.8%	8.1%	1.2%	5.24	3.65	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	8	34	160	45	21	2	73%	3.1	28.1%	13.1%	15.0%	1.2%	5.24	3.07	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.2%	13.6%	10.6%	2.9%	4.77	4.77	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	82	348	80	45	10	100%	4.8	23.1%	12.9%	10.2%	2.9%	4.74	4.75	+0.6
2029	22	MLB MLE	LAA	21	21	107	450	108	52	13	100%	5.1	24.0%	11.5%	12.6%	2.8%	4.56	4.46	+1.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	LAA	23	23	123	520	128	55	15	100%	5.4	24.7%	10.6%	14.1%	2.8%	4.39	4.28	+1.6
2031	24	MLB MLE	LAA	22	22	124	525	132	53	15	100%	5.6	25.2%	10.1%	15.1%	2.8%	4.25	4.15	+1.8
2032	25	MLB MLE	LAA	21	21	123	518	133	51	14	100%	5.8	25.6%	9.8%	15.8%	2.8%	4.15	4.08	+1.9
2033	26	MLB MLE	LAA	21	21	123	520	134	51	14	100%	5.9	25.8%	9.8%	16.0%	2.8%	4.09	4.05	+2.0
2034	27	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	120	509	131	50	14	100%	6.0	25.8%	9.8%	15.9%	2.8%	4.09	4.09	+1.9
2035	28	MLB MLE	LAA	19	19	115	486	125	49	14	100%	6.1	25.7%	10.0%	15.7%	2.9%	4.14	4.18	+1.7
2036	29	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	107	453	115	46	14	100%	6.0	25.4%	10.2%	15.2%	3.1%	4.24	4.31	+1.4
2037	30	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	98	412	103	43	13	100%	6.1	25.1%	10.5%	14.5%	3.3%	4.39	4.48	+1.0
2038	31	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	88	369	91	40	13	100%	5.8	24.7%	10.9%	13.8%	3.5%	4.57	4.69	+0.7
2039	32	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	78	328	79	37	12	100%	6.0	24.2%	11.3%	13.0%	3.7%	4.77	4.91	+0.4
2040	33	MLB MLE	LAA	11	11	69	290	69	34	12	100%	6.2	23.7%	11.7%	12.0%	4.0%	5.00	5.16	+0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	29	122	28	16	4	100%	4.8	23.1%	12.9%	10.2%	2.9%	4.77	4.78	+0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	61	258	62	30	7	100%	5.1	24.0%	11.5%	12.6%	2.9%	4.59	4.49	+0.7
2030	23	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	87	367	91	39	10	100%	5.4	24.7%	10.6%	14.1%	2.9%	4.42	4.31	+1.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	98	414	104	42	12	100%	5.4	25.2%	10.1%	15.1%	2.8%	4.28	4.18	+1.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	103	435	111	43	12	100%	5.7	25.6%	9.8%	15.8%	2.8%	4.18	4.11	+1.6
2033	26	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	108	456	118	45	13	100%	6.0	25.8%	9.8%	16.0%	2.8%	4.12	4.08	+1.7
2034	27	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	108	456	118	45	13	100%	6.0	25.8%	9.8%	15.9%	2.9%	4.12	4.12	+1.7
2035	28	MLB CTX	LAA	18	18	105	443	114	44	13	100%	5.8	25.7%	10.0%	15.7%	3.0%	4.17	4.21	+1.5
2036	29	MLB CTX	LAA	16	16	99	418	106	43	13	100%	6.2	25.4%	10.2%	15.2%	3.1%	4.27	4.34	+1.3
2037	30	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	90	380	95	40	13	100%	6.0	25.1%	10.5%	14.5%	3.3%	4.43	4.52	+1.0
2038	31	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	81	342	84	37	12	100%	5.8	24.7%	10.9%	13.8%	3.6%	4.61	4.73	+0.7
2039	32	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	73	308	75	35	12	100%	6.1	24.2%	11.3%	13.0%	3.8%	4.81	4.95	+0.4
2040	33	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	65	274	65	32	11	100%	5.9	23.7%	11.7%	12.0%	4.1%	5.04	5.20	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		191	191	1106	4672	1170	489	145	100%	5.8	25.1%	10.5%	14.6%	3.1%	4.39	4.02	+18.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	211	88	26	100%	5.8	25.1%	10.5%	14.6%	3.1%	4.39	4.02	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		11	8	34	160	35	22	2	73%	3.1	21.9%	13.8%	8.1%	1.2%	5.24	3.65	+16.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	47	200	932	204	128	11	73%	3.1	21.9%	13.8%	8.1%	1.2%	5.24	3.65	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Angels · 26 IPFIP 2.24 → 3.65 (+1.41)K% 32.2% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.20%	—	×0.680	21.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.02%	—	×1.250	13.77%
HR / BF /BF	0.85%	÷1.000	×1.400	1.19%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.24 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 8 IPFIP 5.41 → 6.60 (+1.19)K% 16.7% → 12.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.740	12.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.05%	—	×1.180	22.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.10%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.41 → 6.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
CJ Gray (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.47	24.0%	12.5%	312	-0.30	—	—	—
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	83
Michael Forret R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	20	SP-	4.00	21.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.302	3.45	22.8%	12.9%	190	-0.55	2.65	289	83
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	83
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.85	19.4%	6.3%	322	+0.59	4.26	422	82
Logan Hofmann R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP-	4.57	22.1%	11.3%	3.5%	.239	6.80	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.23	4.57	129	82
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	81
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	81
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	80
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	80
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.6%	11.6%	249	-0.34	4.54	318	80
Royber Salinas R 2021 · 4.69 FIP	20	SP-	4.69	27.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.280	4.36	26.1%	11.3%	213	-0.33	3.75	285	80
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	79
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	79
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.93	25.8%	12.5%	199	-0.41	3.66	273	78
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	78
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	78
Zach Messinger R 2022 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	23.0%	14.7%	1.8%	.317	4.28	18.7%	7.6%	314	+0.29	3.70	470	78
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	78
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.56	18.8%	9.0%	178	+1.83	3.73	274	77
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.1	102	24.9%	10.7%	1.17	4.39
Diego Segui ('62-'77, 10 WAR*)	9.0	121	22.2%*	9.9%*	1.19*	4.40*
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Tom Griffin ('69-'82, 1 WAR*)	7.5	107	22.6%*	11.4%*	1.21*	4.93*
Dick Selma ('65-'74, 6 WAR*)	4.2	93	24.5%*	11.1%*	1.12*	4.28*
Oliver Pérez ('22)	7.3	86	23.9%	11.8%	1.22	4.37
Francisco Liriano ('19)	9.1	130	23.3%	10.5%	0.91	4.15