Zach Messinger
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
+0.5
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'6" / 225 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.8 · 2027
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.8%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%9.1%
IP95
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2027
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 31 | 16 | 84 | 361 | 112 | 45 | 5 | 23.0% | 14.7% | 1.8% | 4.30 | 3.99 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 22 | 21 | 101 | 446 | 120 | 54 | 14 | 20.4% | 14.3% | 3.8% | 4.35 | 5.27 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 27 | 25 | 150 | 619 | 136 | 52 | 9 | 17.8% | 9.2% | 1.7% | 3.06 | 3.71 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 33 | 7 | 73 | 338 | 71 | 38 | 9 | 18.6% | 12.3% | 2.4% | 5.55 | 4.39 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 4 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 10 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.19 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYY | 17 | 17 | 95 | 400 | 79 | 43 | 10 | 19.8% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 103 | 438 | 89 | 48 | 11 | 20.4% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.64 | 4.21 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 18 | 98 | 414 | 83 | 43 | 11 | 20.1% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.56 | 4.56 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 18 | 98 | 416 | 84 | 43 | 11 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.56 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 18 | 96 | 407 | 82 | 42 | 11 | 20.1% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.59 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 79 | 40 | 11 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.65 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 90 | 380 | 75 | 39 | 11 | 19.7% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.72 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 86 | 365 | 71 | 38 | 11 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.81 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 15 | 15 | 83 | 349 | 67 | 37 | 11 | 19.1% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.85 | 4.90 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 69 | 34 | 11 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.79 | 4.74 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 64 | 32 | 10 | 20.4% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 4.87 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 58 | 31 | 10 | 20.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 5.00 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 117 | 69 | 417 | 1802 | 357 | 220 | 43 | 19.8% | 12.2% | 2.4% | 4.10 | 4.29 | +4.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 33 | 200 | 865 | 171 | 106 | 21 | 19.8% | 12.2% | 2.4% | 4.10 | 4.29 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Messinger (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 19.8% | 10.7% | 2.6% | — | 4.57 | 20.1% | 9.8% | 293 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.81 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.19 | 308 | 88 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 87 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .280 | 3.12 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.76 | 3.12 | 178 | 87 |
| David Lebron R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .336 | 5.70 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +1.40 | 4.30 | 144 | 87 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 86 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.35 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .285 | 4.28 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | -0.07 | 4.28 | 448 | 86 |
| Tim Atherton R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 84 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .285 | 4.91 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.25 | 3.81 | 420 | 84 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 84 |
| Trent Sellers R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 178 | 84 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 84 |
| Kevin Abel R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.51 | 17.8% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.78 | 15.1% | -7.3% | 13 | +1.27 | 4.50 | 352 | 84 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 83 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .285 | 5.94 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.20 | 4.42 | 239 | 83 |
| Alex Wimmers R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.68 | 16.6% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .324 | 3.69 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 114 | +0.01 | 3.62 | 230 | 83 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 83 |
| André Rienzo R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.22 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.01 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.21 | 3.54 | 200 | 82 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 82 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 82 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.6M | +0.5 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.4M |
| Totals | $4M | $14M | +$10M | ||