Zach Messinger
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 26
RHP
6'6" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION47 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA4.93
FIP4.93
K%17.9%
BB%12.5%
K-BB%5.4%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 117 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 31 | 16 | 84 | 361 | 112 | 45 | 5 | 52% | 2.7 | 23.0% | 14.7% | 8.2% | 1.7% | 4.30 | 3.96 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 31 | 16 | 84 | 361 | 112 | 45 | 5 | 52% | 2.7 | 31.0% | 12.5% | 18.6% | 1.4% | 4.30 | 2.81 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 101 | 446 | 120 | 54 | 14 | 95% | 4.6 | 20.4% | 14.3% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 4.35 | 5.25 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 21 | 101 | 446 | 120 | 54 | 14 | 95% | 4.6 | 26.9% | 12.1% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.13 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 27 | 25 | 150 | 619 | 136 | 52 | 9 | 93% | 5.6 | 17.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | 3.06 | 3.68 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 27 | 25 | 150 | 619 | 136 | 52 | 9 | 93% | 5.6 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 13.6% | 1.5% | 3.06 | 3.11 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 7 | 73 | 338 | 71 | 38 | 9 | 21% | 2.2 | 18.6% | 12.3% | 6.3% | 2.2% | 5.55 | 4.29 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 7 | 73 | 338 | 71 | 38 | 9 | 21% | 2.2 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 5.55 | 4.32 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 24 | 1 | 47 | 199 | 38 | 24 | 2 | 4% | 2.0 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 3.06 | 3.89 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYY | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 53 | 37 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 4.93 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYY | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 4.93 | 4.93 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 117 | 495 | 91 | 61 | 9 | — | — | 18.4% | 12.3% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 4.18 | 4.51 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 7 | 30 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 17.9% | 12.5% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 4.93 | 4.55 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 54 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 4.89 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 53 | 34 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 12.2% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 23 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 4.89 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 33 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 12.2% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 74 | 0 | 78 | 330 | 61 | 40 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 4.90 | 4.55 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 156 | 102 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 4.90 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 137 | 70 | 455 | 1963 | 380 | 241 | 43 | 51% | 3.3 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 7.1% | 2.2% | 3.98 | 4.21 | +6.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 31 | 200 | 863 | 167 | 106 | 19 | 51% | 3.3 | 19.4% | 12.3% | 7.1% | 2.2% | 3.98 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Messinger (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.93 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 2.5% | — | 4.93 | 18.6% | 6.4% | 136 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 86 |
| Brad Allen R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.3% | .315 | 6.07 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 87 | +1.85 | 4.22 | 149 | 83 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 83 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .285 | 4.61 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | +0.01 | 4.60 | 529 | 83 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.76 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.28 | 3.84 | 420 | 82 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 82 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 82 |
| Paul Clemens R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 81 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 81 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 81 |
| André Rienzo R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 80 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 80 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 79 |
| Joe Record R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.74 | 16.6% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .236 | 3.71 | 21.1% | 8.2% | 172 | -1.03 | 2.59 | 280 | 79 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 79 |
| Andres Santiago R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.74 | 13.1% | 10.8% | 0.7% | .302 | 4.73 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 164 | +0.99 | 3.74 | 291 | 79 |
| Noah Bremer R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 79 |
| Andrew Bash R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.81 | 18.1% | 13.6% | 2.8% | .249 | 4.41 | 17.7% | 5.9% | 249 | -0.40 | 3.64 | 500 | 79 |
| Robbie Peto R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.71 | 15.3% | 13.4% | 4.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.38 | 232 | 78 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 15.4% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .283 | 4.97 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 94 | -0.21 | 3.73 | 550 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 18.4% | 12.3% | 1.02 | 4.91 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |