Zach Messinger — OGILVIE

Zach Messinger P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 26 RHP 6'6" / 225 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION69 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%17.3%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	31	16	84	361	112	45	5	52%	2.7	23.0%	14.7%	8.2%	1.8%	4.30	3.99	—
2022	22	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	31	16	84	361	112	45	5	52%	2.7	31.0%	12.5%	18.6%	1.4%	4.30	2.81	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	101	446	120	54	14	95%	4.6	20.4%	14.3%	6.1%	3.8%	4.35	5.26	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	101	446	120	54	14	95%	4.6	20.4%	14.3%	6.1%	3.8%	4.35	5.26	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	101	446	120	54	14	95%	4.6	26.9%	12.1%	14.8%	3.1%	4.35	4.13	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	27	25	150	619	136	52	9	93%	5.6	17.8%	9.2%	8.6%	1.7%	3.06	3.70	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	27	25	150	619	136	52	9	93%	5.6	17.8%	9.2%	8.6%	1.7%	3.06	3.70	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	27	25	150	619	136	52	9	93%	5.6	22.0%	8.4%	13.6%	1.5%	3.06	3.11	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	7	73	338	71	38	9	21%	2.2	17.5%	10.5%	7.0%	2.3%	5.55	4.24	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	7	73	338	71	38	9	21%	2.2	17.5%	10.5%	7.0%	2.3%	5.55	4.24	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	7	73	338	71	38	9	21%	2.2	21.0%	11.2%	9.8%	2.7%	5.55	4.32	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	40	1	69	293	66	33	7	2%	1.7	18.7%	10.1%	8.6%	2.6%	3.52	4.25	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	40	1	69	293	66	33	7	2%	1.7	18.7%	10.1%	8.6%	2.6%	3.52	4.25	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	NYY	40	1	69	293	66	33	7	2%	1.7	22.5%	11.3%	11.3%	2.4%	3.52	3.94	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	NYY	6	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.1	17.3%	11.6%	5.7%	2.6%	4.90	4.90	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	75	320	71	36	8	—	—	22.1%	11.3%	10.8%	2.4%	3.64	4.30	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	NYY	127	0	133	562	100	63	15	0%	1.0	17.8%	11.3%	6.5%	2.7%	4.86	4.87	-0.5
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYY	123	0	129	545	98	61	15	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.2%	6.8%	2.8%	4.87	4.91	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	NYY	117	0	123	520	93	58	15	0%	1.1	17.9%	11.2%	6.7%	3.0%	4.94	5.01	-0.6
2030	30	MLB MLE	NYY	110	0	116	489	86	56	15	0%	1.1	17.7%	11.4%	6.3%	3.2%	5.07	5.17	-0.8
2027	27	MLB CTX	NYY	54	0	57	241	43	27	6	0%	1.1	17.8%	11.3%	6.5%	2.7%	4.86	4.87	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYY	77	0	81	342	61	38	10	0%	1.1	18.0%	11.2%	6.8%	2.8%	4.87	4.91	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	NYY	86	0	90	380	68	43	11	0%	1.0	17.9%	11.2%	6.7%	3.0%	4.94	5.01	-0.5
2030	30	MLB CTX	NYY	88	0	92	388	69	44	12	0%	1.0	17.7%	11.4%	6.3%	3.2%	5.07	5.17	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		305	0	320	1351	241	152	39	0%	1.0	17.8%	11.3%	6.6%	2.9%	4.95	4.63	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	95	24	0%	1.1	17.8%	11.3%	6.6%	2.9%	4.95	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		153	70	477	2057	398	239	49	46%	3.1	19.3%	11.6%	7.7%	2.4%	4.00	4.26	-2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	29	200	862	167	100	21	46%	3.1	19.3%	11.6%	7.7%	2.4%	4.00	4.26	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Messinger (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	17.3%	11.6%	2.6%	—	4.93	17.9%	6.7%	385	+0.03	—	—	—
Phil Klein R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	11.0%	1.6%	.280	3.10	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.10	178	86
Ranfi Casimiro R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	26	SW	4.62	16.4%	10.7%	2.8%	.285	4.93	8.4%	-0.2%	16	+0.31	3.81	420	85
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	85
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	85
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	85
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	85
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	84
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	84
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	84
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	83
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	83
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	83
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	83
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	83
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	82
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	81
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	81
Andrew Bash R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	26	SW	4.63	17.6%	12.7%	2.6%	.249	4.07	16.7%	7.2%	231	-0.56	3.52	483	80
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	80
Trevor Cahill R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	27	SW	4.13	16.4%	9.4%	2.2%	.297	4.12	22.9%	12.0%	293	-0.01	3.37	556	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	114	17.8%	11.3%	1.10	4.93
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10